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Energy Forum ENERGY FORUM A QUARTERLY JOURNAL FOR DEBATING ENERGY ISSUES AND POLICIES CONTENTS Issue 72 February 2008 Gas as a Transitional Fuel Jonathan Stern Michael Stoppard Burckhard Bergmann Some thirty years ago, Nordine Aït-Laoussine famously labelled Thierry Bros natural gas as oil’s little brother. Gas was then seen as a fuel whose Simon Pirani – page 3 place in the energy slate would always lag behind oil. Later, gas Assessments of Bali was increasingly seen as the transitional fuel that would eventually 2007 replace oil as the leading energy source. Have these perceptions Benito Müller changed? And more broadly, what are the problems now facing David Robinson – page 16 gas and the challenges ahead? These are the topics addressed by Personal Commentary distinguished experts in five articles in the first debate. Nader Sultan – page 22 Jonathan Stern asks whether we expansion of gas use increasing in Asinus Muses – page 24 should be concerned about future the decades ahead. He argues in fa- gas supplies in international trade. vour of a mix of long-term imports To be sure, there is a remarkable contracts and trading spot cargoes expansion of gas trade that will as important for supply security continue until 2012 or thereabouts. and competitiveness. The worry is that new gas projects that will take us beyond that date Beware of unintended consequences are not given high priority by of ideologically inspired poli- exporting countries. To provide a cies Thierry Bros warns us. The context Michael Stoppard details liberalisation of the gas market in the characteristics of the current the UK benefited consumers when expansion: by 2010, LNG supplies domestic supplies were abundant; will have increased by one third, no longer when the UK became a tradable supplies will double and net importer of gas. The reason is surplus capacity will increase in that price signals lead to short-term shipping and re-gasification plants. adjustments but fail when it comes to long-term investments in storage We now turn to policy. In a very and production. substantial contribution Burckhard Bergmann emphasises the interplay Beware also of the paranoia that between the need for competition, seems to prevail in European at- policies to tackle the climate change titudes toward Russian gas policies. problem and to ensure supply secu- Simon Pirani shows that Russia rity in Europe. There are complex is trying to reform its gas pricing trades-off between these objectives system by equalising all prices that simple ideological solutions – domestic, export prices to the cannot solve. Bergmann sees the Ukraine and Belarus, and also OXFORD ENERGY FORUM FEBRUARY 2008 significantly the prices at which it imports gas Both Müller and Robinson are well aware of the from Turkmenistan – on the basis of European obstacles that lie on the path of a global agree- netbacks. Russia is charging more for gas even ment but both remain optimistic. to its own citizens but, at the same time, has ac- The Personal Commentary rubric is intended to cepted to pay more for its Central Asian imports. give the views of those who played an important This is good economics that should be applauded role in the energy field. In this issue, Nader by European authorities and others. Sultan who was the CEO of KPC notes that the Bali 2007, one of whose aims was to put together real current challenge faced by oil upstream is a ‘road map’ for negotiations about the UN cli- not geological scarcity below ground, as argued mate change regime after the expiry of the Kyoto by peak oil theorists, but the scarce resource ca- Protocol commitments in 2012, was definitely a pacity above the ground. Investment problems in major event. Both Benito Müller and David Rob- upstream oil faced in the Middle East by national inson attended Bali, the former as an active par- and private international companies illustrate the ticipant and the latter as an individual observer. issue. His recommendation is that if both sets of companies wish to provide sustainable and secure We publish here Müller’s assessment of what supplies they must seek imaginatively ways to were promising achievements and what apparent- enter in strategic alliances with each other. The ly went wrong. This relates to the convening of alliances will cover the full energy value chain the plenary while another meeting was running as opposed to joint ventures that are narrowly in parallel, thus preventing important delegates focused. Interestingly, strategic alliances can in- from attending the plenary. Unfortunately, the crease the benefits that accrue to both parties. resumption occurred when the parallel meeting was still on. Was this sheer incompetence on the part of the Secretariat, or some plot? Further- Contributors to this issue more, the President tabled a ‘draft decision’ for adoption which was not based on a consensus. BURCKHARD BERGMANN is Chairman of the A loss of trust ensued. There is a road forward Executive Board of E.ON Ruhrgas AG however. Trust needs to be restored by a clear THIERRY BROS is Senior Gas Equity Analyst at explanation of the mishaps over the ‘draft deci- Société Générale sion’. The long-term difficulty is to break out of BENITO MÜLLER is Director (Energy and the attitude that says: we will only take on com- Environment) at the Oxford Institute for mitments if the others do. This is a very difficult Energy Studies and Managing Director, Oxford task but hopefully not impossible to achieve. Climate Policy David Robinson focuses on changing US at- SIMON PIRANI is Senior Research Fellow at the titudes on federal climate change policies. He Oxford Institute of Energy Studies sees significant changes visible at Bali which are due to a mix of domestic and international fac- DAVID ROBINSON is Senior Research Fellow at tors. He points to the striking fact that the Bush the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies administration has ‘taken off its climate change JONATHAN STERN is Director of the Gas invisibility cloak’. And he begs to differ with Programme, Oxford Institute for Energy the many sceptics who argue that Bali will not Studies influence US climate change policies. The USA MICHAEL STOppARD is Senior Director, Global will have a significant influence on forthcoming Gas at Cambridge Energy Research Associates international negotiations on issues of competi- (CERA), where he directs CERA’s LNG tiveness, flexibility, and action on deforestation Research Advisory Services in developing countries. Furthermore the Major Economies Process promoted by the USA will NADER SULTAN was formerly CEO of Kuwait play a role in defining joint policies. Petroleum Corporation 2 OXFORD ENERGY FORUM FEBRUARY 2008 Gas as a Transitional Fuel Jonathan Stern asks This was the inability of Indonesia’s • Adverse domestic political conse- Pertamina to meet its long-term LNG quences for governments opting for whether the future for export contract commitments. The higher price exports over domestic international gas trade failure can be attributed to a number demand; of country-specific economic and • Substantial financial surpluses is constrained political developments, particularly which have removed the urgency its very large population and rapidly to: growing economy. As the decade has – significantly increase exports Natural gas trade continues to expand unfolded, research at the Oxford In- rapidly both regionally and globally. above contracted levels; stitute for Energy Studies has revealed – rapidly develop reserves (which Large numbers of pipeline and LNG similar trends in a range of gas-export- projects are under development and may already have been identi- ing countries where it is increasingly fied) to support new projects. many trade publications are kept in likely either that exports will not be business by reporting on projects at developed, or may be curtailed short It would be easy to place these various stages of planning. Why then of their potential, due to: developments under the convenient is there any reason to be concerned catch-all of ‘resource nationalism’ or, about future availability of gas in • Increasing domestic demand, for the more paranoid, cartelisation international trade? The problem on fuelled by high economic growth in pursuit of higher prices. However, the horizon is that, after the current and low gas prices; persuasive explanations can be found wave of pipeline and LNG export projects have been completed, addi- Table 1: Largest Net Gas-exporting Countries in 2006a tional export projects do not appear to be a high priority for most countries. Reserves RP Exports % of Gas in Primary The standard approach to estimating (Tcm) Ratiob (Bcm) Energy Demand gas export potential is to look at cur- Algeria 4.50 53.3 61.6 64 rent reserve and production figures, Argentina 0.42 9.0 6.1 53d calculate a reserve to production ratio Australia 2.61 67.0 18.0 21 and make a judgement on the likely Bolivia 0.74 66.3 10.8 37d export availability. For countries with Brunei 0.34 28.6 9.8 76d a reserve to production ratio of less Egypt 1.94 43.3 16.9 44 than thirty years, this can be difficult, Indonesia 2.63 35.6 34.3 31 but for countries with more than fifty Iran 28.13 >100 5.7 53 years of reserves, it should be unprob- Libya 1.32 88.9 8.4 28d lematic. There is however a difficulty Malaysia 2.48 41.2 28.0 54 with this numerical approach as it Myanmar 0.54 40.1 9.0 52d now reveals less and less about actual Nigeria 5.21 >100 17.6 36d developments in individual exporting Norway 2.89 33.0 84.0 0 countries. The crucial missing ele- Oman 0.98 39.0 12.9 71d ments in future export calculations Qatar 25.36 >100 31.1 80 are increases in domestic demand, and Russia 47.65 77.8 151.5 55 the incentives for countries to actually Trinidad 0.53 15.1 16.3 91 develop the reserves that have been Turkmenistan 2.86 46.0 6.0c 76 identified.
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