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Updated Demographic Projections for Sussex Coast HMA Authorities

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Updated Demographic Projections for Sussex Coast HMA Authorities Updated Demographic Projections for Sussex Coast HMA Authorities Adur, Arun, Brighton & Hove, Chichester, Lewes and Worthing Councils Final Report: August 2013 Prepared by GL Hearn Limited 20 Soho Square London W1D 3QW T +44 (0)20 7851 4900 F +44 (0)20 7851 4910 glhearn.com Adur, Arun, Brighton & Hove, Chichester, Lewes and Worthing Councils – Demographic Projections – August 2013 GL Hearn Page 2 of 71 Adur, Arun, Brighton & Hove, Chichester, Lewes and Worthing Councils – Demographic Projections – August 2013 Contents Section Page 1 INTRODUCTION 9 2 PROJECTION METHODOLOGY 11 3 PROJECTION OUTPUTS FOR SUSSEX COAST HMA 29 4 SUMMARY OF PROJECTIONS BY LOCAL AUTHORITY 37 5 COMPARING PROJECTIONS WITH THOSE IN THE 2012 SHMA 45 6 PROJECTIONS FOR THE SOUTH DOWNS NATIONAL PARK 47 7 IMPLICATION OF DIFFERENT BASELINE POPULATION STRUCTURES 51 8 HEADSHIP RATE SENSITIVITY 55 9 CONCLUSIONS 57 APPENDIX 1: ADJUSTED MIGRATION PROFILES 59 APPENDIX 2: DETAILED MIGRATION PROFILES 69 List of Figures OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGY 11 SUITE OF PROJECTIONS RUN 12 PROJ 1 (SNPP) NET MIGRATION ASSUMPTIONS 2011/12 TO 2030/31 14 PROJ 2 (SNPP UPDATED) NET MIGRATION ASSUMPTIONS 2011/12 TO 2030/3115 PAST TRENDS IN NET IN-MIGRATION 16 PHASING OF ASSUMPTIONS FOR EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (2011-2031) 18 PHASING OF ASSUMPTIONS FOR EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (2011-2031) – PROJ C 19 POPULATION OF STUDY AREA – 2011 20 COMPARISON OF POPULATION PROFILE IN DIFFERENT LOCAL AUTHORITIES (2011) 21 POPULATION AGE PROFILE (2011) 22 FERTILITY AND MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS (KEY PERIODS) 23 GL Hearn Page 3 of 71 Adur, Arun, Brighton & Hove, Chichester, Lewes and Worthing Councils – Demographic Projections – August 2013 ESTIMATED ANNUAL LEVEL OF NET MIGRATION BY FIVE-YEAR AGE BAND (2011- 2031) 24 PROPORTION OF POPULATION WORKING 25 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 25 PROJECTED CHANGES IN EMPLOYMENT RATES 26 PAST AND PROJECTED TRENDS IN AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE 28 DESCRIPTION OF PROJECTIONS USED FOR DEMOGRAPHIC MODELLING 29 POPULATION ESTIMATES 2011 TO 2031 30 POPULATION CHANGE, 2011 – 2031 30 DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION 2011 AND 2031 (PROJ 2 – UPDATED SNPP) 31 POPULATION CHANGE 2011 TO 2031 BY FIFTEEN YEAR AGE BANDS 32 FORECAST POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE GROUP 2011 – 2031 32 EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES 2011 TO 2031 33 EMPLOYMENT CHANGE, 2011 – 2031 34 HOUSEHOLD ESTIMATES 2011 TO 2031 35 HOUSEHOLD CHANGE, 2011 – 2031 35 ESTIMATED HOUSING NUMBERS WITH 3% VACANCY ALLOWANCE (TO 2031)36 SUMMARY OF PROJECTIONS 2011 TO 2031 – ANNUAL – SUB-REGION 37 SUMMARY OF PROJECTIONS 2011 TO 2031 – TOTAL – SUB-REGION 37 HOUSING REQUIREMENTS BY SCENARIO (PER ANNUM) 38 SUMMARY OF PROJECTIONS 2011 TO 2031 – ANNUAL – ADUR 39 SUMMARY OF PROJECTIONS 2011 TO 2031 – TOTAL – ADUR 39 SUMMARY OF PROJECTIONS 2011 TO 2031 – ANNUAL – ARUN 40 SUMMARY OF PROJECTIONS 2011 TO 2031 – TOTAL – ARUN 40 SUMMARY OF PROJECTIONS 2011 TO 2031 – ANNUAL – BRIGHTON & HOVE 41 SUMMARY OF PROJECTIONS 2011 TO 2031 – TOTAL – BRIGHTON & HOVE 41 SUMMARY OF PROJECTIONS 2011 TO 2031 – ANNUAL – CHICHESTER 42 SUMMARY OF PROJECTIONS 2011 TO 2031 – TOTAL – CHICHESTER 42 GL Hearn Page 4 of 71 Adur, Arun, Brighton & Hove, Chichester, Lewes and Worthing Councils – Demographic Projections – August 2013 SUMMARY OF PROJECTIONS 2011 TO 2031 – ANNUAL – LEWES 43 SUMMARY OF PROJECTIONS 2011 TO 2031 – TOTAL – LEWES 43 SUMMARY OF PROJECTIONS 2011 TO 2031 – ANNUAL – WORTHING 44 SUMMARY OF PROJECTIONS 2011 TO 2031 – TOTAL – WORTHING 44 COMPARABLE PROJECTIONS IN 2012 SHMA AND 2013 UPDATE REPORT 45 COMPARISON OF DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS (2012 AND 2013) – HOUSING REQUIREMENTS PER ANNUM 45 COMPARISON OF ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS (2012 AND 2013) – HOUSING REQUIREMENTS PER ANNUM 46 COMPARISON OF POPULATION PROFILE IN NATIONAL PARK AND THE REST OF THE STUDY AREA 47 SUMMARY OF PROJ 2 (SNPP UPDATED) 2011 TO 2031 – ANNUAL 48 SUMMARY OF PROJ 2 (SNPP UPDATED) 2011 TO 2031 – TOTAL 49 DIFFERENCE IN BASELINE POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (2011) 51 FORECAST POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE GROUP 2011 – 2031 52 HOUSING REQUIREMENTS WITH DIFFERENT HEADSHIP RATE ASSUMPTIONS (PER ANNUM 55 MIGRATION FIGURES BY COMPONENT FOR 2011/12 USED IN PROJ 2 (SNPP UPDATED) 61 PAST MIGRATION TRENDS (AS RECORDED BY ONS) AND PROJECTED FIGURES IN THE 2011-BASED SNPP 62 PAST MIGRATION TRENDS (AMENDED ON BASIS OF MID-YEAR POPULATION DATA) AND PROJECTED FIGURES IN PROJ 2 (SNPP UPDATED) 62 PAST MIGRATION TRENDS (AS RECORDED BY ONS) AND PROJECTED FIGURES IN THE 2011-BASED SNPP 63 PAST MIGRATION TRENDS (AMENDED ON BASIS OF MID-YEAR POPULATION DATA) AND PROJECTED FIGURES IN PROJ 2 (SNPP UPDATED) 63 PAST MIGRATION TRENDS (AS RECORDED BY ONS) AND PROJECTED FIGURES IN THE 2011-BASED SNPP 64 PAST MIGRATION TRENDS (AMENDED ON BASIS OF MID-YEAR POPULATION DATA) AND PROJECTED FIGURES IN PROJ 2 (SNPP UPDATED) 64 PAST MIGRATION TRENDS (AS RECORDED BY ONS) AND PROJECTED FIGURES IN THE 2011-BASED SNPP 65 GL Hearn Page 5 of 71 Adur, Arun, Brighton & Hove, Chichester, Lewes and Worthing Councils – Demographic Projections – August 2013 PAST MIGRATION TRENDS (AMENDED ON BASIS OF MID-YEAR POPULATION DATA) AND PROJECTED FIGURES IN PROJ 2 (SNPP UPDATED) 65 PAST MIGRATION TRENDS (AS RECORDED BY ONS) AND PROJECTED FIGURES IN THE 2011-BASED SNPP 66 PAST MIGRATION TRENDS (AMENDED ON BASIS OF MID-YEAR POPULATION DATA) AND PROJECTED FIGURES IN PROJ 2 (SNPP UPDATED) 66 PAST MIGRATION TRENDS (AS RECORDED BY ONS) AND PROJECTED FIGURES IN THE 2011-BASED SNPP 67 PAST MIGRATION TRENDS (AMENDED ON BASIS OF MID-YEAR POPULATION DATA) AND PROJECTED FIGURES IN PROJ 2 (SNPP UPDATED) 67 ESTIMATED ANNUAL LEVEL OF MIGRATION BY FIVE-YEAR AGE BAND (2011-2031) – ADUR 69 ESTIMATED ANNUAL LEVEL OF MIGRATION BY FIVE-YEAR AGE BAND (2011-2031) – ARUN 69 ESTIMATED ANNUAL LEVEL OF MIGRATION BY FIVE-YEAR AGE BAND (2011-2031) – BRIGHTON & HOVE 70 ESTIMATED ANNUAL LEVEL OF MIGRATION BY FIVE-YEAR AGE BAND (2011-2031) – CHICHESTER 70 ESTIMATED ANNUAL LEVEL OF MIGRATION BY FIVE-YEAR AGE BAND (2011-2031) – LEWES 71 ESTIMATED ANNUAL LEVEL OF MIGRATION BY FIVE-YEAR AGE BAND (2011-2031) – WORTHING 71 GL Hearn Page 6 of 71 Adur, Arun, Brighton & Hove, Chichester, Lewes and Worthing Councils – Demographic Projections – August 2013 Quality Standards Control The signatories below verify that this document has been prepared in accordance with our quality control requirements. These procedures do not affect the content and views expressed by the originator. This document must only be treated as a draft unless it is has been signed by the Originators and approved by a Business or Associate Director. DATE ORIGINATORS APPROVED August 2013 Justin Gardner Nick Ireland Director, JGC Planning Director Limitations This document has been prepared for the stated objective and should not be used for any other purpose without the prior written authority of GL Hearn; we accept no responsibility or liability for the consequences of this document being used for a purpose other than for which it was commissioned. GL Hearn Page 7 of 71 Adur, Arun, Brighton & Hove, Chichester, Lewes and Worthing Councils – Demographic Projections – August 2013 GL Hearn Page 8 of 71 Adur, Arun, Brighton & Hove, Chichester, Lewes and Worthing Councils – Demographic Projections – August 2013 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 This report provides a revised set of demographic projections for the local authorities within the Sussex Coast HMA. These are: • Adur District • Arun District • Brighton and Hove City • Chichester District • Lewes District • Worthing District 1.2 The projections update those set out within the Coastal West Sussex Strategic Housing Market Assessment Update and provide a consistent set of projections for strategic planning purposes. 1.3 The projection approach is broadly consistent with the SHMA Update. However the projections have been updated to take account of: • 2011 Census • 2011-based Interim Sub-National Population Projections • Revised Mid-Year Population Estimates and Components of Change for the 2002-11 period. Report Structure 1.4 The remainder of this report is structured as follows: • Section 2: Projections Methodology; • Section 3: Projection Outputs; • Section 4: Backlog of Housing Provision; • Section 5: Conclusions. GL Hearn Page 9 of 71 Adur, Arun, Brighton & Hove, Chichester, Lewes and Worthing Councils – Demographic Projections – August 2013 GL Hearn Page 10 of 71 Adur, Arun, Brighton & Hove, Chichester, Lewes and Worthing Councils – Demographic Projections – August 2013 2 PROJECTION METHODOLOGY Introduction 2.1 In this section we set out demographic projections methodology. The core projections prepared within this report cover the period from 2011-31. We also consider in Section 4 whether there is a backlog of housing need which needs to be included in calculating future housing requirements. 2011 is used as the start-date for the projections as there is a comprehensive suite of data available regarding the base population and past trends to this point, which takes account of data from the 2011 Census. 2.2 The methodology used to determine population growth and hence housing requirements is based on fairly standard population projection methodology consistent with the methodology used by ONS and CLG in their population and household projections. Essentially the method establishes the current population and how will this change in the period from 2011 to 2031. This requires us to work out how likely it is that women will give birth (the fertility rate); how likely it is that people will die (the death rate) and how likely it is that people will move into or out of each District. These are the principal components of population change and are used to construct our population projections. Figure 1 shows the key stages of the projection analysis through to the assessment of housing requirements. Overview of Methodology GL Hearn Page 11 of 71 Adur, Arun, Brighton & Hove, Chichester, Lewes and Worthing Councils – Demographic Projections – August 2013 2.3 Much of the data for our projections draws on ONS information contained within the 2010- and 2011- based Subnational Population Projections (SNPP) and the 2011-based CLG Household Projections.
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