Catalyzing India's Climate Ambition

ISSUE PAPER

By Patrick Suckling June 2021

CATALYZING INDIA’S CLIMATE AMBITION

ABOUT THE AUTHOR INTRODUCTION Instead, a sophisticated and holistic strategy Patrick Suckling is a China’s recent commitment to reach to catalyze climate ambition from India is non-resident Senior Fellow needed if the world is to succeed and help of the Asia Society Policy carbon neutrality before 2060 means that Institute and a Senior for the first time ever, India is on track to the country navigate a new low-carbon Partner at Pollination, shortly become the world’s largest emitter. development model. India’s recent estab- a climate advisory and At a time that demands urgent action if lishment of an Apex Committee on the investment firm. Mr. we are to stay within the goals of the Paris Implementation of the Paris Agreement and Suckling previously served its commitment to produce a long-term as Australia’s Ambassador Agreement, this brings into contrast India’s for the Environment, leading traditionally bifurcated approach that it has strategy to reduce emissions provide two on negotiations around the used to guard against taking greater action particular openings for this even if signals implementation of the Paris in light of the responsibility of the devel- elsewhere are mooted, including the impact Agreement, strategy for oped world to lead the way. of India’s economic response to COVID- Australia’s $1 billion climate 19, particularly under the current circum- finance commitment, and stances. And at a geopolitical level, India’s bilateral cooperation on Nevertheless, in recent decades, a polit- climate change. He also ical appetite for climate action has been relations with the United States and China served as Australia’s High growing in India, including reinforcing its can help reinforce the need for action, and Commissioner to India, as global leadership credentials at the behest of so too can India’s shifting relations with the Australia’s Senior Official for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Climate- G77 group of developing nations. APEC, and at the Australian related disasters have also driven public Embassy in Washington This strategy must involve a mix of both working on the Australia-U.S. support for more constructive engagement Alliance. by Delhi. However, this appetite does not greater political and policy engagement and yet match growing international expec- deeper technical and financial support to ABOUT THE ASIA SOCIETY tations for Indian action, as momentum help accelerate action—including through POLICY INSTITUTE for global climate action and ambition helping unlock greater private finance With a solution-oriented accelerates rapidly around the world in the domestically, including from among the mandate, the Asia Society lead-up to the COP26 Climate Conference growing Indian business community that Policy Institute (ASPI) tackles has committed to net zero. The recently major policy challenges in Glasgow in November 2021. The confronting the Asia-Pacific election of U.S. President Joe Biden and announced U.S.-India Climate and Clean in security, prosperity, recent commitments to net zero by other Energy Agenda 2030 Partnership is an sustainability, and the Asian economies such as Japan and Korea excellent first step in this regard. This paper development of common underscore the weight of growing expecta- sets out how the wider international com- norms and values for the munity should sensitively, constructively, region. tions on India. and intelligently now work with India to Hollow calls for greater ambition from catalyze greater climate ambition in the India are likely to simply fall on deaf ears. lead-up to COP26 and beyond.

The Asia Society Policy Institute and the Asia Society take no institutional position on matters of public policy and other issues addressed in the reports and publications they sponsor. All statements of fact and expressions of opinion contained in this paper are the sole responsibility of its author and may not reflect the views of the organization and its board, staff, and supporters.

India is among the FIGURE 1: GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN INDIA BY SECTOR handful of countries 1,200 Electricity & Heat Source: CAIT Climate Data Explorer via. Climate Watch that will have a Manufacturing & Construction major bearing Transport Land Use Change & Forestry 1,000 on whether the Industry Buildings world successfully Other fuel combustion Fugitive emissions addresses the 800 challenges of climate change. 2 CO 600 TONNES

400 MILLION

200

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2016

INDIA IS CRITICAL TO ACHIEVING around the mid-2030s. By 2035, India THE PARIS AGREEMENT GOALS will overtake China as the world’s most 2 India is among the handful of countries that populous country. will have a major bearing on whether the world successfully addresses the challenges The investments India makes in coming of climate change. It is the third-largest decades to fuel its economic growth and annual emitter of emissions after China and meet the aspirations of more than 1.4 billion the United States, at 14, 6.6, and 3.7 billion people will determine the pace and extent of tonnes, respectively. India’s emissions are decarbonization across the economy, about also growing faster than those of any other which there is significant uncertainty. major energy-consuming nation.1 India’s energy sector, accounting for India’s recent economic slowdown, com- around 70 percent of India’s emissions, is pounded by COVID-19, saw a 10 percent at the forefront of this uncertainty. Energy drop in growth in 2020; even so, India is demand is projected to double by 2040, already the third-largest economy measured and electricity demand potentially triple.3 by purchasing power parity. It will be the While renewable energy will be an increas- same measured by market exchange rates ing part of the mix, a significant propor-

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A central focus for tion of this expansion will be coal-fired principle of Common But Differentiated the next decade, and power—set to increase from 200 gigawatts Responsibilities (CBDR), which India (GW) to 300 in the next decade. Should played a key role in advancing. beyond, therefore all this investment proceed, coal mining is must be how also set to jump—from 700 million tonnes There was no domestic political impera- the international per year to a projected 1 billion tonnes by tive for India on climate action. Where 2023–24.4 considered at all, the issue was subsumed community works by the overriding priority of economic with India to ensure Other sectors of the economy are also chal- development—with climate action viewed the best prospects lenged, notably transport and hard-to-abate as an unacceptable impost—or other envi- industries like steel, cement, and chemicals; ronmental challenges considered more of emissions India’s agriculture sector; and the built envi- pressing, notably air and water pollution.7 mitigation in ronment—where more than 800 million of support of the Paris India’s population are projected to be living Climate change was overwhelmingly approached through the prism of interna- Agreement goals. by 2040. tional geopolitics, in particular the north- In this context, in all scenarios combining south divide—which in India’s case was India’s projected GDP growth and extant reinforced through its long-held promotion climate policies, its emissions growth looks of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) set to double by 2030, or as Nicholas Stern anchored in the G77 group of developing has put it, “keeping the rise in emissions countries.8 to just a doubling by 2030 would be truly remarkable.” 5 Through this prism, India’s focus was to resist any binding climate obligations on A central focus for the next decade, and the basis of the historical responsibility beyond, therefore must be how the interna- developed countries bore for accumulated tional community works with India to ensure emissions, their need to bear the burden the best prospects of emissions mitigation in of reparation on the ground of equity— support of the Paris Agreement goals. including on the basis of per capita emissions, where India’s were among the lowest TRADITIONALLY, CLIMATE in the world—and India’s right to develop- COOPERATION WITH INDIA HAS ment without a climate impost. BEEN A CHALLENGE… Historically, it has been challenging to work From a domestic political perspective, the with India on climate change. In the early litmus test for successful climate action decades of climate action and throughout was how successfully India defended its the Kyoto agreements, India was among position, with the primary goal of holding the most opposed to developing country developed countries to account rather than climate action and a key player in ensuring use of the international architecture to help a hard-fought bifurcated international address climate challenges in India.9 This regime.6 Developed countries made binding effectively divorced it from domestic policy, emissions reduction commitments and reinforced by the lack of any domestic developing countries had no legal responsi- political pressure related to climate change. bility, as enshrined in international climate That translated into limited room to engage architecture through the fundamental with India on practical climate action.

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India is among the …BUT INDIA’S APPROACH HAS has found that more lives were lost in most vulnerable to BEEN SHIFTING IN RECENT India due to climate change in 2020 (more YEARS, PROVIDING SCOPE than 2,000) than in any other country.12 climate change, with Cyclone Amphan alone displaced more mounting significant Over the past decade or so, a distinct shift in India’s positioning has occurred includ- than 4 million people in the country. At impacts and risks ing under the leadership of Prime Minister the same time, temperature rises on the related to sea-level Modi and as a result of his desire to see Tibetan Plateau are causing the Himalayan India play a greater role on the world stage. glaciers to retreat and threatening the liveli- rise, heat stress, hoods of hundreds of thousands of farmers drought, water This does not equate to India’s departure who depend on the Ganges, Brahmaputra, stress and flooding, from the fundamental principles of CBDR Yamuna, and other rivers. and equity reflected in the United Nations biodiversity, and Framework Convention on Climate Recognition is growing that it is in India’s natural disasters Change (UNFCCC) or India’s insistence, own national interest to address climate such as cyclones. along with that of all other developing change. In 2020, for the first time, the gov- countries, on the responsibility of devel- ernment published a national assessment oped countries to lead and for them to on climate change and its risks to India provide financial, technological, and techni- and is giving greater prominence to climate 13 cal support for developing country climate impacts in reporting under the UNFCCC. action. India will continue to underline its This is reflected in growing public concern, per capita emissions as remaining among albeit from a low base, over climate change 14 the lowest, where a doubling of its emis- now consistently evident in polling. As sions by 2030 would represent only half the has occurred in China over the past decade, level of China’s emissions when the Paris community concern around other pressing Agreement was adopted in 2015.10 Any environmental issues—notably air pollu- attempt to engage with India that is insen- tion, water stress, and waste—is sharpening sitive to these core principles will flounder. focus on climate change.

But a number of factors have come together Growing recognition of India’s vulner- to make India increasingly receptive to ability is underlining the importance of climate action and cooperation with others addressing climate change for its contin- to that end, opening more space for inter- ued economic development. More than national engagement with India. a decade ago, India began to shift its view that climate action was at the cost of devel- Chief among these, as evident everywhere opment to propounding the co-benefits of in the world, is the increasingly obvious climate action and development including adverse impact climate change is wreaking as a tenet of its National Action Plan on on India itself. India is among the most vul- Climate Change.15 While there remains a nerable to climate change, with mounting way to go on integrating climate and devel- significant impacts and risks related to sea- opment in India, the trend is accelerating as level rise, heat stress, drought, water stress climate change is demonstrably exacerbat- and flooding, biodiversity, and natural ing India’s many development challenges disasters such as cyclones. India experi- and in some cases eroding progress made— ences among the highest disaster risk levels threatening up to 4.5 percent of GDP by in the world.11 Christian Aid, for example, 2030 in a recent McKinsey analysis.16

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While there remains The shifting economics of climate technolo- and Reliance are positioning themselves to a way to go on gies is also now positively playing into India’s be leaders on climate transition, not just in development story. This is particularly India but globally.22 As is occurring else- integrating climate evident with renewable energy that is pro- where, this will increasingly drive progress. and development viding competitive solutions for India’s sig- in India, the trend nificant energy needs. Domestic renewable Complementing these developments domestically, climate change is moving up is accelerating as energy tariffs are now two-thirds the cost of domestic coal-sourced power tariffs and the priority list of India’s foreign policy climate change tariffs in solar and wind are at record lows as an aspect of its great power ambitions. is demonstrably of around two rupees per kilowatt hour.17 India’s geostrategic vision rests on it being exacerbating India’s Renewable energy delivered more than two- a key pole in a multipolar world, whereby thirds of India’s generating capacity addi- it envisages that from a position of strate- many development tions in 2019–20, which is a remarkable gic autonomy, it will be a leading player challenges and in turnaround from even five years ago.18 on addressing global challenges.23 This some cases eroding approach is crystalized in India’s arguments These developments are dovetailing with to be on a reformed UN Security Council. progress made... India’s priority on energy security. There has been long-standing broad political support This positioning coincides with climate for India’s energy security agenda in the change moving up the priority list of the context of domestic supply constraints, global agenda, succinctly captured in dependence on overseas markets, and asso- December 2020 by the United Nation’s ciated fiscal pressures. India’s oil consump- Secretary General António Guterres empha- tion is expected to surpass that of China in sizing that climate action will be the barom- the mid-2020s and import dependency is eter of global leadership.24 already more than 80 percent.19 Gas con- sumption faces a similar, although lesser, Wanting to play in this league, witnessing challenge. Renewable energy and other shifts by fellow BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, alternatives such as nuclear energy offer a China, and South Africa) members—partic- partial solution producing a strengthening ularly China—in recent years in the face of narrative in India that climate action and growing concern over climate change, and energy security are mutually reinforcing.20 reflecting its own strengthening equities on the climate agenda, India is increasingly As the economics on climate change shifts engaged and constructive on the interna- and the energy equation strengthens, and tional climate agenda and through its bilat- as climate transition accelerates globally, eral relationships. This includes its modest an important influential constituency development aid program, an indication of for climate action from Indian business is growing recognition of the importance of emerging. Leading Indian businesses are this agenda for promoting India’s influence, both signing up to engage in climate action particularly in Africa. and encouraging government action. More than 50 Indian companies are now setting A factor in this is the strengthening stra- science-based emissions reduction targets tegic partnership between India and the and more than 40 have committed to United States. While this is principally sourcing 100 percent renewable energy.21 founded on working more closely as bal- Flagship groups like Tata, Mahindra, JSW, ancing powers to China’s rise and in reaping

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Despite Prime the benefits from closer engagement of two of the emissions intensity of GDP by 33 Minister Modi’s of the world’s largest economies, finding percent to 35 percent by 2030 (below 2005 areas for additional ballast is an enduring levels); an increase in the share of non-fos- engagement, feature. India was receptive to the priority sil-based energy resources to 40 percent of [climate action] the Obama administration placed on installed electric power capacity by 2030; is not a political climate action and cooperation, includ- and creation of an additional, cumulative, issue that is given ing as a means of advancing the primary carbon sink of 2.5–3 gigatonnes of CO2 objectives of the strategic partnership and is through forest and tree cover by 2030.27 prominence by any engaging with the Biden administration on influential political this agenda. India has by and large continued in this constructive vein during the complicated, party in India. THE PARIS AGREEMENT lengthy, and ongoing UNFCCC negotia- WAS A WATERSHED tions to conclude the implementing rules for the Paris Agreement. With leadership from Prime Minister Modi, India’s shifting approach was an important DESPITE THE SHIFT, element in the achievement of the historic SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES Paris Agreement. Modi’s leadership was REMAIN especially important for countering that of his more hard-line Environment Minister India’s growing receptiveness to climate Prakash Javadekar; for this reason, outreach action and cooperation, its strengthening to Modi himself at the eleventh hour was international engagement on the climate particularly crucial for getting the final deal agenda, and its increasing consideration of across the line. India therefore ultimately climate change in domestic policymaking do played an influential and positive role in not negate the very real and significant chal- delivering an international framework that lenges India still faces in advancing climate has ended the bifurcated approach to devel- action and ambition, the more so given oped and developing countries’ climate India’s stage of economic development. contributions (although developed countries must continue to lead and provide Domestic political drivers for climate support to developing countries) and where action and ambition remain weak notwith- all countries have committed to escalating standing increasing community concern, climate ambitions over time.25 the growing intersection of climate change with development policy, and the political While there had been increasing movement support for climate action in the context and flexibility from India in the UNFCCC of India’s energy security. Despite Prime negotiations leading up to Paris, notably Minister Modi’s engagement, it is not a in the aftermath of the failed Copenhagen political issue that is given prominence by negotiations of 2009 under its forward- any influential political party in India. leaning Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh (for which he was lambasted by At the previous federal elections in 2019, opposition parties),26 Paris represented a although climate change featured—albeit decisive shift. not prominently—for the first time in the manifestos of India’s two major parties, the This included India’s most ambitious Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian climate commitments to date: a reduction National Congress (INC), it was a nonissue

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The politics of a throughout the elections.28 Outside of elec- the government showing no indication it dramatic shift away tions, India’s weak and ineffective opposi- is willing to invest the significant political tion political parties will not be a driver for and financial capital required for transition. from coal appear the foreseeable future, even were they to This would involve significant economic prohibitive, with the prioritize the issue. transformation for key eastern Indian states government showing dependent on coal production, such as The ruling BJP government does not there- Odisha, Jharkhand, and Chhattisgarh. no indication it is fore feel under any pressure on this front; willing to invest the conversely, it also means it does have the The consequence of all this is that the gov- significant political political space to act if it so wishes. Beyond ernment will continue to seek to bet each remarkable progress on the renewable way, crystalized by Indian Power Minister and financial energy rollout, it is far from implementing R. K. Singh, who in 2020 both endorsed capital required for an integrated and mutually reinforcing suite scheduled closure of 29 coal plants and transition. of policies necessary for economy-wide acted to keep many others open. decarbonization. In addition to India’s still relatively weak This is most apparent in the government’s political drive on climate transition, the contradictory emphasis on dramatically complexity of its federated government— increasing thermal coal mining and the which includes 28 states and eight union associated rollout of coal-fired power territories—and its development chal- stations—coal still provides around 70 lenges, institutional and policy weaknesses percent of the country’s electricity—and also hinder climate action. India’s National aiming for 450 GW of renewable energy Action Plan on Climate Change (2008) by 2030. In 2020, the government sought with its eight national missions on related to further boost the domestic coal-mining action is widely dismissed as outdated and sector with a series of commercial auctions has never provided a strategic, integrated, and continued to delay the implementation and unifying policy framework for national of pollution regulations for coal plants.29 action.32

As with so many countries, coal is the Climate responsibility at the federal level is fault line running through India’s climate spread across more than 14 ministries with agenda. On the one hand, the economics of limited central drive coordination provided renewables—coal plants in India are oper- by the Ministry of Environment, Forests, ating at around 50 percent capacity as less and Climate Change, which has nominal expensive renewable power is favored on oversight of the agenda. At the state level, the grid—points to an accelerating shift planning and initiatives are rudimentary away from coal.30 On the other, rapidly at best, although some states are strength- growing energy demand and the absence ening such as Gujarat, Rajasthan, and of sufficient reliable, flexible clean energy Maharashtra but were barely mentioned will continue to lead to increasing absolute in India’s latest reporting on climate action demand for coal for decades according to to the UNFCCC. Recognizing the hand present projections.31 brake this represents, in December 2020 the federal government established an Apex That aside, the politics of a dramatic shift Committee for Implementation of the away from coal appear prohibitive, with Paris Agreement to be led by the Ministry

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India’s economic of Environment to oversee India’s climate the solar economy.36 It is also concerning 33 performance may action. However, absent significantly that the government has been diluting a strengthened institutional policy and a number of India’s environmental rules and become a serious current national strategy, the ministry is regulations, including related to environ- drag on its climate likely to struggle and has met infrequently mental impact processes, as pro-business ambition. since its establishment. initiatives that could cut-across transition. Significantly, India’s economic perfor- PROGRESS ON COMMITMENTS mance may become a serious drag on its IS MIXED, AND INDIA NEEDS climate ambition. At times of economic TO LIFT ON AMBITION contraction, economies around the world do not have a good record of investing in India’s performance against its Paris Agree- climate transition, defaulting to status ment commitments reflects both the posi- quo stimulus investing.34 India is currently tives and challenges outlined. in its worst contraction for decades. The economic slowdown had started well before On the one hand, it is well on track to COVID-19 struck, when persistent deferral achieve its emissions intensity target, with by India of key structural reforms—land, current indications that a more than 40 labor markets, capital markets, and trade percent intensity reduction will be easily liberalization in particular—had become a achieved. India is also set to significantly significant headwind for economic growth. exceed its target of 40 percent of non- fossil-based energy resources by 2030. In 2019, India’s growth slowed to just over International Energy Agency (IEA) pro- 4 percent, a halving of Prime Minister jections show electricity generation from Modi’s aspiration for 8 percent or more renewables increasing from 18 percent since coming to office. COVID-19 saw today to 45 percent by 2040. In 2018, India’s economy shrink more than 10 India’s investment in solar photovoltaic percent in 2020; although the International (PV) was greater than that in all fossil-fuel Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a bounce sources combined, and the pace of this back this year of 8.8 percent, that will investment is set to continue. depend on progress against COVID-19, which remains uncertain, particularly given Energy intensity has also significantly current circumstances.35 declined by 27 percent over the past decade. A large part of this is attributable Fiscal repair is likely to constrain significant to improvements in energy efficiency. investments by the government in climate Large-scale public procurement of efficient transition, and it has already shown a prefer- products such as LED lighting and the ence for status quo spending in its modest— introduction of tradeable energy efficiency only around 2.5 percent of GDP—stimulus certificates have led to India avoiding packages. Vivid Economics Greenness an additional 15 percent annual energy Stimulus Index has ranked India as among demand, mitigating an estimated 300 37 the worst in the world for climate transi- million tonnes of CO2. tion investments, although this improved throughout 2020 with announced spending India, however, is not on track to meet its on the electrification of Indian railways and third target to create a carbon sink of 2.5–3

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[Ensuring India FIGURE 2: PROJECTIONS FOR INDIA’S ENERGY MIX exceeds its Paris 100% 5,000 targets] should be a major focus 80% 4,000 of international 60% 3,000 effort over this and successive years... 40% 2,000

20% 1,000

0% TWh

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2018 2040 Coal Nuclear Solar PV Gas Hydro Wind Oil Bioenergy Other renewables Source: IEA (2019b), World Energy Outlook, 2019

billion tonnes. The current afforestation remains reluctant. Given that India is set to rate of 35 million tonnes of CO2 per year is readily overachieve on its emissions inten- not enough to meet the target, and evidence sity and non-fossil-based energy targets, shows India going backward on this front.38 there clearly is room for higher ambition. A combination of capacity and policy chal- Prime Minister Modi has said India will lenges; encroachment on forests by mining, exceed its Paris targets; in 2020 in a joint agriculture, and industry; and legal and reg- communiqué with French President ulatory problems mean sufficient progress Emmanuel Macron, he indicated some is unlikely absent a major reorientation and preparedness to increase India’s Paris investment. Agreement commitments, even if at the same time India has batted away suggestions In addition, India’s current commitments that countries should be increasing the level are not commensurate with the degree of of their ambition before the 2023 Global climate ambition increasingly characteriz- Stocktake under the Paris Agreement. ing international climate action. Galvanized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Ensuring that this occurs should be a major Change’s 1.5-degree report in 2018 and focus of international effort over this and increasing global evidence of the threats of successive years given India’s importance in climate change, the global center of gravity addressing the threat of climate change. for climate ambition is shifting to net-zero THE STARS ARE ALIGNING emissions by 2050 and an approximate GLOBALLY FOR STRONGER halving of current global emissions by INDIAN CLIMATE AMBITION… 2030.39 Accelerating global momentum on climate In the face of a majority of countries now action and ambition by governments, busi- committing to higher ambition, India nesses, and communities, combined with

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This is a timely India’s increasing receptiveness to climate BRICS approach provides rare scope to moment for the new action, presents an unprecedented opportu- orchestrate a developed and developing nity to encourage higher Indian ambition. country pincer for higher Indian ambition. [U.S.] administration to press for stronger This year, in particular, presents a major This especially applies to the United States Indian ambition, moment with the most important UN and China. India is sensitive to President Conference of the Parties (COP26) meeting Biden’s significant climate ambition and including through since the 2015 Paris Agreement squarely commitment to strengthening global a meaningful focused on countries updating their climate momentum on this agenda. This is a timely bilateral—or commitments with increased ambition, and moment for the new administration to outlining longer-term plans for decarbon- press for stronger Indian ambition, includ- broader—package ization (increasingly centering on net zero ing through a meaningful bilateral—or of cooperation by 2050). broader—package of cooperation that sub- that substantively stantively supports climate action. Fortuitous sequencing and chairing of supports climate other recent and upcoming meetings will China has a similar interest in pressing action. reinforce momentum, notably President India. Having recently committed to Biden’s special climate Summit in April, the net-zero emissions by 2060 or earlier and G7 in June (India is invited) chaired by the currently in the process of developing UK—with an eye on supporting a successful updated short-term commitments for pos- COP26 in Glasgow in what it wants to be a sible announcement this year, China wants successful double act of global Britain after to see other key emerging markets follow Brexit, and the G20 in October chaired by suit. Italy also intent on success at COP26. India will chair the G20 in 2023, which is the Both the United States and China should year of the Global Stocktake assessing per- explore how best to work together, and formance against the Paris Agreement goals, with others, on India, putting into practice providing a unique scope to leverage India President Biden’s stated intent, within the on maintaining and contributing to a strong framework of managed strategic competi- climate drive. tion with China, to forge constructive areas of bilateral cooperation where possible— More than 100 countries have already particularly when related to global chal- indicated an intention to increase their lenges. Or, alternatively, the United States ambition at COP26 and to submit long- should see working with India through term strategies.40 More than 60 percent of a sophisticated strategy such as this as global GDP is now covered by countries another important lever in their efforts to committed to net-zero emissions reduc- seek greater ambition from China. tions by 2050.41 Traditionally, India has wanted to be in good company on the Like China, the United States is currently global climate agenda and is almost never continuing to look at ways to increase prepared to be isolated. Historically, that ambition this decade. Both are looking to has meant alignment with the weight of sway each other’s ambition in this process developing countries, notably the BRICS and should look to bring India into this and especially China. The fact that China equation as part of leveraging Indian has already broken away from the unified ambition.

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The large number In keeping with U.S. and Indian strategic like Canada and New Zealand, with their of countries competition with China and the complex already announced significantly more ambi- balancing act between engagement and tious commitments for 2030 and legislated vested in pressing hedging that characterizes both countries’ commitment to net zero by 2050 neutral- India presents relations with China, the United States izing usual Indian arguments about not an unusually rich also has a parallel opportunity to encour- moving until developed countries pave the way. The same is true for recent announce- range of options for age a stronger Indian climate agenda and ambition as part of strengthening the bilat- ments by Japan and South Korea commit- coalitions... eral strategic partnership. ting to net zero by 2050.

Timing on this front is propitious in the Like the United States, all these coun- context of China’s increasingly aggressive tries have an interest in elevating climate behavior toward India in recent months, change as an instrument of Indian strate- notably over Sino-Indian border skirmishes gic and foreign policy, including as ballast sparked by Chinese incursions. For the first in dealing with China, providing further time in decades, these confrontations have incentive for strengthened engagement and seen serious casualties, framing Chinese new patterns of cooperation. rivalry in stark terms for New Delhi and putting new impetus into strengthening A majority of G77 countries now actively India’s strategic partnership with the United support stronger global climate action and States and others.42 ambition and are pressing for a significant lift at COP26, where absent Chinese soli- It would be counterproductive, however, darity India will not find succor among the to seek to use the climate agenda overtly other BRICS, which in any case are under against China, for example, by making it heavy pressure (Brazil has already signaled an explicit part of a converging Indo-Pacific some commitment to net zero by 2060)43 strategy by key regional players as part of and are considering their options. Many of balancing China. The recent Quadrilateral these G77 countries are African and small Security Dialogue meeting of the United island developing states—such as those States, Japan, India, and Australia balanced in the Indian and Pacific Oceans—which this well, by prioritizing climate action on India has been cultivating as part of its the one hand but focusing especially on expanding influence and whose relations cooperative efforts to bolster the region’s will become strained if India falls short on resilience rather than as an overt lever over climate ambition. In this context, India China. The world needs to work as much is also sensitive to Chinese leadership on with China as with India, possibly more climate change undercutting Indian influ- so, to successfully address climate change. ence, which offers a further spur. India also has a long history of working with China and other BRICS on climate The large number of countries vested in change and will continue to do so. And pressing India presents an unusually rich India’s cherished commitment to strategic range of options for coalitions to that end, autonomy means it will only ever go so far. including within and across traditional climate negotiating blocs and extend- The EU and UK will reinforce pressure on ing well beyond key progressives like the India, along with other developed countries well-established High Ambition Coalition,

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India is deeply the EU, the Alliance of Small Island States Gujarat, he was the first in India to estab- wedded to the UN (AOSIS), and the Independent Alliance of lish a climate change agency and as prime Latin America and the Caribbean (AILAC) minister has articulated the importance of Framework groups, including, as has not been possible India addressing climate change in a way Convention and before, harnessing the three key North Asian his predecessors never did. This includes his associated countries in China, South Korea, and Japan. pressing his sometimes truculent bureau- mechanisms to drive Maximizing these opportunities should be a cracy to be more engaged and constructive focus for the year and into the future. on the global climate agenda. the global climate agenda. Cooperating …BUT POLITICAL PRESSURE He has been the driving force in the MUST BE UNDERPINNED BY dramatic increase in India’s ambition on the for the right PRACTICAL COOPERATION FOR rollout of renewable energy, from a com- compromises that SUCCESS mitment of 175 GW by 2022 to 450 GW can accommodate, How practically to encourage India and by 2030. He has also been instrumental in not concede to, work with it on climate action and higher two flagship Indian climate initiatives: the International Solar Alliance to accelerate India’s interests and ambition will require a range of different, mutually reinforcing approaches and, the development and deployment of solar priorities can be a like most things with India, will not be a technologies, with around 70 countries now conduit for bolder straight line. No ready-made blueprint members, and the International Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure. The action. is available, but a number of combined elements increase prospects of success. United States and others supporting both projects are easy wins on stronger engage- Building genuine, sustained, and mutually ment. But Modi is not driving a strategic beneficial partnerships is an obvious but and nationally integrated and comprehen- often underused prerequisite with India. sive agenda for transition; as some criticism The history of its relations with many points out, he is only focused on renewables countries since independence has been and has been retrograde on environmental one of waxing and waning with recurrent regulations and civil society, which stronger mutual disappointment. U.S.-India rela- engagement should seek to encourage. tions provide a case in point over decades, although the past decade appears to be Strengthening Prime Minister Modi’s breaking this cycle with significant and relationships with his key ministers and purposeful efforts to entrench the strategic their departments needs to be part of this partnership across the economic, security, agenda, including through bolstered senior and community spectrum. This is what will officials-level frameworks and dialogues. be required to advance meaningful climate While fourteen ministries are actively cooperation with India. involved in India’s climate agenda, two particularly important ones are the Ministry of Intensifying high-level political engage- Environment, Forest, and Climate Change ment with India on climate change will and the Ministry of External Affairs. be key. While this has always been a feature of climate diplomacy with India, unlike Like Modi, External Affairs Minister previous Indian leaders, Prime Minister Jaishankar recognizes elevating climate Modi’s climate interest and leadership change as an instrument of Indian foreign provide valuable scope. As chief minister of policy linked to standing, energy security,

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Ultimately...what and the global political realignment U.S. leadership and incompatible interests will matter most occurring with China’s rise. He, generally of the co-convenors. The revived MEF, supported by his ministry, is more for- which met in April, could therefore pay div- is concrete ward-leaning on the climate agenda than idends and provide an additional bridge to and significant Environment Minister Javadekar, who India. The same applies for two-track pro- cooperation with is less strategic and also restricted by a cesses, where the U.S.-India Climate and India on the bureaucracy in many cases schooled by the Energy Dialogue provides a good model receding era of India’s climate opposition. for strategic and systematic development of ground in support Other important ministers are R. K Singh avenues for bilateral cooperation. of strengthening (Power), Nirmala Sitharaman (Finance), Ultimately, however, what will matter most its climate action and Piyush Goyal (Railways, which are electrifying). is concrete and significant cooperation with and ambition. This India on the ground in support of strength- must be the other Substantively and more consistently ening its climate action and ambition. This side of the coin to engaging with India in the formal inter- must be the other side of the coin to polit- national climate architecture should ical engagement for success to be assured. political engagement also be a high priority. India is deeply for success to be wedded to the UN Framework Convention While a large number of areas of potential assured. and associated mechanisms to drive the focus for cooperation exist, the following global climate agenda. Cooperating for are particularly prospective for the sort of the right compromises that can accom- step change required if India is to put itself modate, not concede to, India’s interests on the pathway to success on transformative and priorities can be a conduit for bolder decarbonization. action. For COP26, ensuring a pathway to finalize the Article 6 rules on markets Policy engagement. There is significant in a way that accommodates India’s strong scope to work with India as it continues to interest in some transfer of carbon credits develop the enabling environment, policies, for the Kyoto mechanism (where a com- and measures for climate transition. promise has been apparent since COP24 Through its new Apex Committee for the in Katowice) and, as always, appropriate Implementation of the Paris Agreement and progress on climate finance are veins to seek commencement of work on a long-term to tap. low greenhouse gas emission development strategy, India is actively looking to bolster Strengthening informal mechanisms should national development and coordination of be part of stronger engagement with India, climate objectives and policy. Cooperating including supporting working more closely with India in support of stronger and more on the formal climate architecture. These strategic and integrated policy frameworks mechanisms have a solid record in helping and sharing relevant lessons learned from build the understanding and trust necessary elsewhere would build on long-standing for brokering progress on climate. President successful broader policy engagement over Donald Trump disbanded the most effective decades. of these mechanisms, the Major Economies Forum (MEF), whose replacement, the A critical area for such engagement is EU-Canada-China-led Ministerial on India’s post-COVID-19 economic recovery. Climate Action, suffered from the lack of A global focus is growing on reaping a

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...Indian officials double dividend from stimulus measures financial stress of India’s distribution com- have recently that support both growth and jobs and panies, and improve policy formulation and climate action, notably evident in the EU’s coordination.47 floated the idea of a Green Deal; President Biden’s climate domestic emissions- package; and increasing policy recommen- The criticality of this sector for India trading scheme. The dations from the IMF, World Bank, and advancing climate action and ambition; 44 the priority the Indian government places significant technical, OECD. Cooperation with India on this agenda, including on continued integra- on progress in this area; and the significant commercial, and tion of climate change into development policy, technical, technological, and finan- political complexities policy, would provide a strong platform for cial challenges involved in transitioning to clean energy evident around the world involved and the India to strengthen its climate action and ambition. make this sector the highest priority for extensive experience international cooperation. Dovetailing a around the world Cooperation on carbon markets to support meaningful package of cooperation in this area, for example, as an initiative of the new present a significant transition is another key area. India is not implementing market-based solutions, Biden administration, either bilaterally or opportunity. beyond a modest tax on coal to support in concert with others, with political efforts renewable investments.45 Knowing it needs this year to raise India’s ambition would sig- big levers to support transition and aware nificantly bolster the prospects. of carbon markets now covering more Climate financing. The same occurs than three-quarters of Asia’s GDP and with climate financing, which India will the proposed carbon border adjustment continue to heavily emphasize as a precon- mechanisms of the EU and the United dition for increased climate ambition. It States, Indian officials have recently floated has calculated the cost of meeting its 2030 the idea of a domestic emissions-trading Paris commitments at US$170 billion per scheme.46 The significant technical, com- annum, with donor financing currently pro- mercial, and political complexities involved viding around 10 percent of this amount.48 and the extensive experience around the Continued donor support for financing world present a significant opportunity. mechanisms like the Global Climate Fund Energy transformation. While India has will be important. had remarkable success with the rollout of However, given the constraints of donor renewable energy (around 90 GW to date funding, India’s growing wealth, and the with total generating capacity around 373 fact that the vast majority of financing GW), the scale and associated challenges— for climate transition must flow from the even to meet its 2030 target of 450 GW— private sector (India’s own public financing mean successful transition is not assured. for climate itself only sits at around 10-15 The IEA has outlined the challenges percent of the financing need), an increas- in detail, including the need to further ing aspect of international engagement with strengthen energy markets including at the India needs to be on mobilizing private wholesale level, improve distribution and sector financing for transition. transmission infrastructure where significant congestion already exists, strengthen This is becoming an increasingly sophisti- flexibility between energy sources for suc- cated area of global activity that offers the cessful system integration, address the potential for the development of new and

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Absent the more innovative ways to work with India India in meeting its nature-based target— deployment of on obtaining financing from the private currently badly off track—under the Paris sector. This could include cooperation Agreement, and beyond. Nature-based significant new on a stronger enabling environment for solutions, such as using forestry, mangroves, technologies at private sector investment and green finan- or regenerative farming as carbon sinks, are scale, major cial instruments such as green bonds or estimated to provide around one-third of emitting and transition funds, as well as support to align the solutions for meeting Paris Agreement investment portfolios in India with the goals. They are also set to become a major hard-to-abate Paris Agreement goals and leveraging public revenue stream globally as carbon markets industries sector financing to mobilize private sector grow, which India should harness as a in India will capital—for example, through blended powerful incentive to further protect its finance instruments. natural capital. Areas of prospective coop- significantly hinder eration include carbon measurement and decarbonization. Decarbonization technologies in hard- accounting systems, trading platforms, and to-abate industries. Absent the deploy- related financing instruments. ment of significant new technologies at scale, major emitting and hard-to-abate Just transition. Escalating Indian ambition industries in India will significantly hinder on climate will ultimately have to grapple decarbonization—particularly steel, chem- with the transition of communities, if icals, and cement. For example, India’s not some state economies such as those of steel production is projected to increase Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh. Most obvious from 106 million tonnes per annum to 470 is thermal coal mining. India must deal million tonnes per annum by 2050 and is with the political economy of this, and it set to overtake China well before then as will be highly sensitive to what it perceives demand in China plateaus.49 More than 90 as any outside interference. Just transitions percent of India’s steel making comes from now beginning in parts of the world—for high-emitting coking coal furnaces with example, Germany’s transition away from shelf lives of several decades. coal—provide the basis for some discussion with India, but any traction on this issue Advanced technologies such as carbon will only come in the context of very sig- capture, use, and storage (CCUS) and nificant financial support for the relevant hydrogen and direct air capture will be economic restructuring.50 Absent this, the required to achieve significant abatement focus should be elsewhere. in these industries. Cooperating with India through forums like Mission Innovation or HARNESSING BUSINESS the Clean Energy Ministerial, bilaterally AND CIVIL SOCIETY and more broadly; through public-pri- Sustained engagement with India should vate partnerships; and, where applicable, increasingly extend beyond government, through possible Article 6 carbon trading especially to business and civil society more would strongly support higher Indian broadly. climate ambition. While more Indian companies are focused Development of natural capital. A sig- on climate action, and increasingly so given nificant opportunity exists to work with corporate trends globally, they remain a

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Forging a genuine fraction and even fewer are active on this as oxygen for decarbonization should be an partnership with agenda globally. Encouraging stronger enduring, if at times delicate, priority. engagement will help engender a powerful India will be the constituency. CONCLUSION work of decades, There has never been a better time to engage Initiatives could include networking key not years, and with India on climate change, with con- Indian businesses more strongly into inter- many partnerships; verging domestic and international forces national business organizations on climate shaping a genuine moment for significant coalitions of transition such as We Mean Business and progress. activity—between the World Economic Forum and partner- states and non-state ing with Mission Innovation, support for It is a realistic prospect that India can still adoption of climate risk and opportunity actors and public and be successfully encouraged in this year of as part of core business strategy (including climate ambition to do more, given the private sectors—must disclosure using the Taskforce for Climate- U.S. resurgence of climate change action become an increasing Related Financial Disclosures—TCFD— and China’s change of tack to raise its 2030 part of successful guidelines), promoting understanding and ambition and commit to a longer-term goal engagement with access to green finance and development for net-zero emissions. of frameworks for Paris Agreement-aligned India. capital allocation, and promoting carbon India’s own recognition of the imperatives of trading as an element of successful climate climate action for its national interest, lack action. of insuperable political impediments, and impressive over performance on its cur- Finding ways to work with and support rent leading targets provide a fair runway, broader civil society efforts on climate although the economic turbulence of transition is another important avenue. COVID-19 could be a spoiler, underlining India has the largest number of NGOs the importance of reinforcing with India in the world, many focused on the envi- the double dividend achievable when recov- ronment and climate change, and a wide ery stimulus is focused on growth, jobs, and range of expert and influential nongovern- climate transition. ment institutions such as The Energy and Resources Institute and the Center For The best prospects for successfully working Policy Research. with India on higher ambition are a combination of concerted political and practi- In another indication of the complexi- cal engagement, which match in ambition ties and challenges of climate transition that sought from India. Modest incre- in India, as part of a concerning broader mentalism of the kind that has so often pushback against civil society, the Modi characterized previous climate engage- government has been cracking down on ment will not support the step change environmental groups. This includes the required. In that context, working with recent arrest of prominent activist Disha the grain of India’s priorities offers the Ravi and measures against Greenpeace.51 most opportunity, which is why signifi- Sensitively navigating appropriate and pro- cantly boosting cooperation on transi- ductive ways to engage with civil society tioning India’s energy sector should be a and harness the world’s largest democracy major focus. The recent announcement of

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...Climate change a U.S.-India Clean Energy Partnership partnerships; coalitions of activity—between [must be] at the aimed at mobilizing finance, accelerating states and non-state actors and public and clean energy development and deployment, private sectors—must become an increasing heart of relations scaling new technologies and building part of successful engagement with India. with India...if we are capacity is an encouraging step in the to meet the challenge right direction, although details are still to It must also be one that puts climate change emerge. at the heart of relations with India and its of our generation... place in the world if we are to meet the chal- Forging a genuine partnership with India will lenge of our generation and be the change be the work of decades, not years, and many we want to see.

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ENDNOTES

1 UN Environment Programme, Emissions Gap Report 2020: Our World in Data, https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020.

2 Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade,An Indian Economic Strategy to 2035. Canberra: Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, 2020, https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/india/ies/index.html.

3 International Energy Agency, Global Energy and CO2 Status Report, 2019, https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-co2-status-report-2019.

4 Ministry of Coal, “India to Produce One Billion Tonne of Coal by 2024.” Press Release, 2019, https://coal.nic.in/content/coal-india-produce-one-billion-tonne-coal-2024-target-announced-shri-pralhad-joshi-45th-coal.

5 Damian Carrigan and Michael Safi. “How India’s Battle with Climate Change Could Determine All of Our Fates,” The Guardian, November 6, 2017.

6 Katharina Michaelowa and Axel Michaelowa. “India as an Emerging Power in International Climate Negotiations,” Climate Policy 12, no. 5 (2012): 575–90.

7 Doraiswami Raghunandan, “India in International Climate Negotiations: Chequered Trajectory,” in Navroz Dubash, ed., India in a Warming World: Integrating Climate Change and Development An Indian Economic Strategy to 2035 (Barton ACT 2600: Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, 2020).

8 Michaelowa and Michaelowa, “India as an Emerging Power in International Climate Negotiations.”

9 Navroz Dubash, “The Politics of Climate Change in India: Narratives of Equity and Cobenefits,”WIREs Climate Change, 4 (2013): 191–201.

10 Navroz K. Dubash and Ankit Bhardwaj, “India’s Emissions Will Double at Most by 2030,” Carbon Brief, August 22, 2018, https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-indias-emissions-will-double-at-most-by-2030.

11 In 2020, the Inform Risk Index ranked India 29 out of 191 countries. UN-OCHA INFORM Report 2020, “Shared Evidence for Managing Crises and Disasters,” https://reliefweb.int/report/world/inform-report-2020-shared-evidence-managing-crises-and-disasters.

12 Vishwa Mohan, “2 of 15 Most-Destructive 2020 Climate Disasters Impacted India,” Times of India, December 28, 2020, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/2-of-15-most-destructive-2020-climate-disasters-impacted-india-says-report/articleshow/79984276.cms.

13 Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India, “Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region,” 2020, https://reliefweb.int/report/india/assessment-climate-change-over-indian-region-report-ministry-earth-sciences-moes.

14 For example, PEW polling on public views in India on environment and climate change in 2020 saw consistent results of more than 60 percent of respondents wanting climate change to be given priority. PEW Research Center, “Public Views about Science in India, 2020,” https://www.pewresearch.org/science/fact-sheet/public-views-about-science-in-india/.

15 Navroz Dubash, ed., India in a Warming World: Integrating Climate Change and Development (New Delhi: Oxford University Press, 2020).

16 McKinsey Global Institute, “Climate Change May Cost India $200 Billion by 2030: Report, 2020,” https://www.newsbytesapp.com/news/business/rising-temperatures-pose-200bn-threat-to-indian-gdp-report/story.

17 Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, “Why India’s Solar Power Tariffs Reached a Historic Low,” 2020, http://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Why-Solar-Power-Tariffs-in-India-Reached-an-Historic-Low_December-2020.pdf.

18 Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, “Why India’s Solar Power Tariffs Reached a Historic Low.”

19 International Energy Agency, “India 2020: Energy Policy Review,” 2020. https://www.iea.org/reports/india-2020.

20 Navroz Dubash, ed., India in a Warming World.

21 Science Based Targets, “RE100 Initiatives,” 2020. https://www.there100.org/growing-renewable-power-companies-seizing-leadership-opportunities.

22 For example, the Tata Group is showcased as a leading Indian corporation on climate action under the We Mean Business Initiative, and the Mahindra group has set an India-leading target of net-zero emissions by 2040.

23 For example, see Shyam Saran, How India Sees the World (New Delhi: Juggernaut Books, 2017).

24 UN Secretary General’s Address to the UK Climate Summit, December 2020, https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2020-12-12/ secretary-generals-remarks-the-climate-ambition-summit-bilingual-delivered-scroll-down-for-all-english-version.

25 Sandeep Sengupta, “India’s Engagement in Global Climate Negotiations: From Rio to Paris,” in N. Dubas, ed., India in a Warming World.

26 Aniruddh Mohan, “From Rio to Paris: India in Global Climate Politics,” Rising Powers Quarterly 2, no. 3 (2017): 39–60.

27 Government of India, “India’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution,” 2015, https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/India%20First/INDIA%20INDC%20TO%20UNFCCC.pdf.

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28 Both the BJP and Congress Parties explicitly addressed climate change in their manifestos, with the BJP summarizing efforts made to date in advancing action but significant polices and measures were not detailed.

29 Rajesh Kumar Singh, “India Delays Anti-Pollution Rules for Coal Power Plants Again,” Bloomberg, April 3, 2021, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-03/india-delays-anti-pollution-rules-for-coal-power-plants-again.

30 Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, “Who Would Still Fund a New Coal Power Plant in India?” 2020, https://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/IEEFA_Who-Would-Still-Fund-a-New-Coal-Power-Plant-in-India_May-2020.pdf.

31 International Energy Agency, “India 2020: Energy Policy Review,” https://www.iea.org/reports/india-2020; Prime Minister Modi’s remarks at UK-France-UN Climate Summit, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJwW-d7Bb7M.

32 Lavanya Rajaman and Navroz Dubash, “Rethinking India’s Approach to International and Domestic Climate Policy,” (Denver, CO: Center for Policy Research, 2019).

33 Ministry of Environment of India, “Forests and Climate Change,” 2020, http://moef.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Environment-AR-English-2020-21.pdf.

34 Cameron Hepburn, Brian O’Callaghan, Nicholas Stern, Joseph Stiglitz, and Dimitri Zenghalis, “Will Covid 19 Fiscal Recovery Packages Accelerate or Retard Progress on Climate Change?” Oxford Review of Economic Policy 39, s1 (2020).

35 IMF World Economic Outlook 2020, https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2020/October/English/text.ashx.

36 Vivid Economics Green Stimulus Index, 2020, https://www.vivideconomics.com/casestudy/greenness-for-stimulus-index/.

37 International Energy Agency, “India Energy Policy Review 2020,” https://www.iea.org/events/india-energy-policy-review-2020.

38 Ishan Kukreti, “India Unlikely to Meet Carbon Sink Commitment.” Down to Earth, June 18, 2019, https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/forests/india-unlikely-to-meet-carbon-sink-commitment-65144.

39 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5°C,” 2019,https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ .

40 United Nations Secretary General’s Remarks at the Opening of the 75th Session of the UN General Assembly, September 15, 2020, https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2020-09-15/un-secretary-generals-remarks-the-opening-of-the-75th-session-of-the-un-general-assembly-delivered.

41 Richard Black, Katie Cullen, Byron Fay, and Thomas Hale, “Taking Stock: A Global Assessment of Net-Zero Targets,” (Oxford: University of Oxford Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, 2021).

42 Anubhav Gupta, “Nature and Nurture: How the Biden Administration Can Advance TIES with India,” ASPI Issue Paper (New York: Asia Society, 2021).

43 Although by terming its commitment “indicative,” Brazil has faced criticism and questions about the strength of this commitment.

44 For example, see the IMF World Economic Outlook 2020.

45 India has a tax on coal of Rs 400/ton to support renewable energy investments, although it has increasingly been used as a means to compensate states for fiscal shortfalls after the Goods and Services Tax reform rather than investing in renewables.

46 “India Considering Domestic Carbon Market,” Carbon Pulse, November 6, 2020, https://carbon-pulse.com/114016/.

47 International Energy Agency, “India Energy Policy Review 2020.”

48 Mahua Acharya, Jolly Sinha, Shreyans Jain, and Rajashree Padmanabhi, “Landscape of Green Finance in India,” Climate Policy Initiative, 2020, https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/landscape-of-green-finance/.

49 Will Hall, Thomas Spencer, Sachin Kumar, “Towards a Low Carbon Steel Sector: Overview of the Changing Market, Technology, and Policy Context for Indian Steel.” The Energy and Resources Institute, 2020, https://www.teriin.org/sites/default/files/2020-03/Towards%20a%20Low%20Carbon%20Steel%20Sector%20Report.pdf.

50 Rahul Tongia and Samantha Gross, Coal in India: Adjusting to Transition (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2019); Sugandha Srivastav and Ryan Rafaty, “Five Worlds of Political Strategy in the Climate Movement.” forthcoming.

51 Saurabh Trivedi, “Farmers Protests, 22 Year Old Activist Disha Ravi Arrested,” Hindu Newspaper, February 14, 2021, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/22-year-old-activist-disha-ravi-arrested-for-sharing-farmers-protests-toolkit-with-greta-thunberg/article33834325.ece.

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