Winter 1996-1997
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2014 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Review
2014 North Atlantic Hurricane Season Review WHITEPAPER Executive Summary The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season was a quiet season, closing with eight 2014 marks the named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes (Category 3 or longest period on stronger). record – nine Forecast groups predicted that the formation of El Niño and below consecutive years average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Main – that no major Development Region (MDR)1 through the season would inhibit hurricanes made development in 2014, leading to a below average season. While 2014 landfall over the was indeed quiet, these predictions didn’t materialize. U.S. The scientific community has attributed the low activity in 2014 to a number of oceanic and atmospheric conditions, predominantly anomalously low Atlantic mid-level moisture, anomalously high tropical Atlantic subsidence (sinking air) in the Main Development Region (MDR), and strong wind shear across the Caribbean. Tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin was also influenced by below average activity in the 2014 West African monsoon season, which suppressed the development of African easterly winds. The year 2014 marks the longest period on record – nine consecutive years since Hurricane Wilma in 2005 – that no major hurricanes made landfall over the U.S., and also the ninth consecutive year that no hurricane made landfall over the coastline of Florida. The U.S. experienced only one landfalling hurricane in 2014, Hurricane Arthur. Arthur made landfall over the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane on July 4, causing minor damage. While Mexico and Central America were impacted by two landfalling storms and the Caribbean by three, Bermuda suffered the most substantial damage due to landfalling storms in 2014.Hurricane Fay and Major Hurricane Gonzalo made landfall on the island within a week of each other, on October 12 and October 18, respectively. -
Hurricane and Tropical Storm
State of New Jersey 2014 Hazard Mitigation Plan Section 5. Risk Assessment 5.8 Hurricane and Tropical Storm 2014 Plan Update Changes The 2014 Plan Update includes tropical storms, hurricanes and storm surge in this hazard profile. In the 2011 HMP, storm surge was included in the flood hazard. The hazard profile has been significantly enhanced to include a detailed hazard description, location, extent, previous occurrences, probability of future occurrence, severity, warning time and secondary impacts. New and updated data and figures from ONJSC are incorporated. New and updated figures from other federal and state agencies are incorporated. Potential change in climate and its impacts on the flood hazard are discussed. The vulnerability assessment now directly follows the hazard profile. An exposure analysis of the population, general building stock, State-owned and leased buildings, critical facilities and infrastructure was conducted using best available SLOSH and storm surge data. Environmental impacts is a new subsection. 5.8.1 Profile Hazard Description A tropical cyclone is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or sub-tropical waters and has a closed low-level circulation. Tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes are all considered tropical cyclones. These storms rotate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere around the center and are accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] 2013a). Almost all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (which includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) form between June 1 and November 30 (hurricane season). August and September are peak months for hurricane development. -
Hurricane Strike!
Your Name(s): ____________________________ Hurricane Strike! Goto The Hurricane Strike Learning Module at http://www.meted.ucar.edu/hurrican/strike/index.htm Here’s a youtube introduction to the Hurricane Strike Environment. (5 minutes) (note: the video and this document assume that you are using the multimedia version of this activity. Some students prefer the text version. ) Science Worksheet 1 (select Sunday) Watch the Weather Channel News Flash (on the Castillos’ TV) and look in Storm Track (on the Castillos’ laptop computer) to answer questions 1–3: 1. Where was Tropical Storm Erin at 8:00 PM on Sunday, July 30th? (Fill in the blanks with latitude and longitude numbers and identify N, S, E, or W for each. If you have a tracking chart, plot the location.) Latitude: __ __ . __ N S E W Longitude: __ __ . __ N S E W 2. Which place was closest to the center of Tropical Storm Erin? (identify one) Cuba Florida Mexico The Turks & Caicos 3. Tropical Storm Erin’s winds are gusting to 60 mph. How many kilometers per hour (kph) is that, if 1 mph equals 1.61 kph? _______ kph Look in Hurricanes and tropical Cyclones to answer questions 4–11: 4. Tropical storms that begin in the Atlantic Ocean north of the equator form near the … (identify one) Tropic of Cancer Tropic of Capricorn 5. Hurricanes can’t strike places in the northern part of the U.S., like New York. (identify one) TRUE FALSE 6. If you lived in Japan, what would you call hurricanes? (Fill in the blank.) _______________________________ 7. -
A Feasibility Study for the Hancock Heritage Center
DRAFT Feasibility Study for the Hancock Heritage Center by Adam Blond Robert Owen Robert Carr John Stewart Tim Donovan Glen Stollberger Kim Foster Laura Sullivan Katy Johnson Chad Wagner Katie Marsh Steven Woods Tom Mattioli Edited by: Diane Kuehn Assistant Professor Fall, 2007 Tourism and Commercial Recreation (FOR 476/676) SUNY ESF 1 Introduction Hancock, N.Y., is located in the Catskill region of New York, roughly 40 miles southeast of Binghamton and 140 miles northwest of New York City. It is located at the confluence of the east and west branches of the Delaware River, the longest free-flowing river in the east. The natural resources of this area are astounding, providing Hancock residents and visitors with tremendous recreation opportunities. An industry-based history and blooming art culture of the area are important sources of community pride that need to be shared between residents of all ages. The purpose of this tourism plan is to assess the potential for establishing a heritage center in the village of Hancock. The Hancock Heritage Center (HHC) would act as a gathering place for local residents for community activities, and as the center for information and education about the natural, historic, and cultural resources of the Hancock area for visitors. Certain concerns of residents and issues facing the Hancock area need to be considered before HHC development and promotion can occur. These concerns and issues are outlined below, as are the proposed vision, goals, and educational theme for the HHC. Following these report sections is the class’s assessment of local resources, attractions, and the potential heritage center site, as well as recommendations for the development of the HHC. -
! 1! NASA's Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) Investigation
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20170005486 2019-08-31T16:22:19+00:00Z 1! NASA’s Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) Investigation 2! 3! Scott A. Braun, Paul A. Newman, Gerald M. Heymsfield 4! NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland 5! 6! Submitted to Bulletin of the American Meteor. Society 7! October 14, 2015 8! 9! 10! 11! Corresponding author: Scott A. Braun, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 612, 12! Greenbelt, MD 20771 13! Email: [email protected] 14! ! 1! 15! Abstract 16! The National Aeronautics and Space Administrations’s (NASA) Hurricane and Severe Storm 17! Sentinel (HS3) investigation was a multi-year field campaign designed to improve understanding 18! of the physical processes that control hurricane formation and intensity change, specifically the 19! relative roles of environmental and inner-core processes. Funded as part of NASA’s Earth 20! Venture program, HS3 conducted five-week campaigns during the hurricane seasons of 2012-14 21! using the NASA Global Hawk aircraft, along with a second Global Hawk in 2013 and a WB-57f 22! aircraft in 2014. Flying from a base at Wallops Island, Virginia, the Global Hawk could be on 23! station over storms for up to 18 hours off the East Coast of the U.S. to about 6 hours off the 24! western coast of Africa. Over the three years, HS3 flew 21 missions over 9 named storms, along 25! with flights over two non-developing systems and several Saharan Air Layer (SAL) outbreaks. 26! This article summarizes the HS3 experiment, the missions flown, and some preliminary findings 27! related to the rapid intensification and outflow structure of Hurricane Edouard (2014) and the 28! interaction of Hurricane Nadine (2012) with the SAL. -
Montague Township 4Th Grade Bus Tour June 4, 2015
Montague Township 4th Grade Bus Tour June 4, 2015 “Indians, the American Revolutionary War, and the Civil War” From the Montague School Driveway, make a right onto Rt 206 North, towards the Milford Bridge. On your left where you see the baseball field is the beginning of the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area. This is a very large park that is on both sides of the Delaware River in both New Jersey and in Pennsylvania. Montague is the northern most part of the park on the New Jersey side. Most of the property along the river from this ball field, past the Montague/Milford Bridge, almost all the way to Port Jervis, is part of the National Park Service. This Park includes the Nelden-Roberts Stonehouse, the Minisink Reformed Church, the Foster-Armstrong House, and the Grange. Continue right along Rt 206 North, do not turn onto Clove Road. After passing Clove Road, look for driveway on the right for the Nelden-Roberts Stonehouse. Pull right into the driveway and turn the bus around so that the children can enter the front of the building. The ground is solid under all the grass area, so you can turn and park wherever you want to. If you back into the back area, the students can see the water pump and outhouse from inside the bus. We’re going to be stopping now at the Nelden-Roberts Stonehouse, where two members of MARCH, the Montague Historical Society, are going to be giving us a tour of the first and second floor of one of the original schoolhouses in Montague. -
1 John Van Tuyl
John Van Tuyl - the Man1 and the Building of Fort Van Tyle W. Kent Van Tyle Contact: [email protected] 8/13/2020 John Van Tuyl – frontiersman, patriot, farmer and father John Van Tuyl, grandson of Isaac Van Tuyl and Sarah Lakerman of Staten Island, was born about 1740-45 in either Somerset or Morris County, NJ, likely the third of four brothers (Isaac, Arthur, John and Abraham). He grew up on the New Jersey frontier in the farming family of his father John Sr, likely in the Roxbury area of Morris County.2 As a youth he was undoubtedly influenced by the companionship of his older brother and avid frontiersman Isaac, about 5-7 years his senior, who served in 1757 during the French and Indian War in the Morris County, NJ militia3 and during the Revolution under Captain JR Dewitt of Mamakating in the Ulster County, NY militia.4 Likely an experienced hunter, after his marriage to Catherine (Terwilliger) Westfall in Sussex Co, NJ in 1761, Isaac supplemented his family income by collecting wolf bounties5, 49 pounds sterling for 14 wolves in 1768. John Sr, his sister Gertrude and her husband John Courson, followed the same migration path from Staten Island, through Somerest and Morris counties of New Jersey into the northwest New Jersey frontier with Gertrude and John Courson settling in Sussex Co, NJ in the 1760s.6 It is unclear why John Van Tuyl and his father John Sr elected to settle in Greenville, NY sometime in the decade prior to the Revolutionary War. The Neversink and Wallkill river valleys provided much more fertile farm land than the hilly, rocky soil of Greenville; however by the decade before the Revolutionary War, these more desirable areas had been settled and were being actively farmed. -
Observations and Analyses of Upper Ocean Responses to Tropical Storms and Hurricanes in the Vicinity of Bermuda W
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 113, C08009, doi:10.1029/2007JC004358, 2008 Click Here for Full Article Observations and analyses of upper ocean responses to tropical storms and hurricanes in the vicinity of Bermuda W. J. Black1 and T. D. Dickey1 Received 6 June 2007; revised 10 December 2007; accepted 11 February 2008; published 6 August 2008. [1] A circular region within a radius of 400 km of Bermuda has been struck by 188 tropical storms or hurricanes from 1851 through 2005 and by 20 since 1995. Here we describe new direct and remote sensing observations and analyses of recent events near the Bermuda Testbed Mooring including Hurricane Fabian (2003), Tropical Storm Harvey (2005) and Hurricane Nate (2005). The most impressive upper ocean response of the recent events was produced by Hurricane Fabian when SST cooling exceeded 3.5°C, vertical mixing occurred to a depth of greater than 130 m, and upper ocean currents reached 100 cm sÀ1. Fabian also triggered an ocean color event visible in SeaWiFS satellite images. Related implications include improved estimates of the roles of tropical cyclones in driving meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and testing of hypotheses concerning warming of the tropical oceans which could cause more intense tropical storms and hurricanes. Citation: Black, W. J., and T. D. Dickey (2008), Observations and analyses of upper ocean responses to tropical storms and hurricanes in the vicinity of Bermuda, J. Geophys. Res., 113, C08009, doi:10.1029/2007JC004358. 1. Introduction infer wind speed, sea surface temperature, sea surface and wave height, and ocean color is proving to be extremely [2] Recent hurricane events such as those observed dur- valuable, but there are serious limitations such as restriction ing the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, and in particular to surface expressions, cloudiness, and measurement reso- Hurricane Katrina, have focused the attention of both the lution [e.g., Babin et al., 2004; Scharroo et al., 2005; Son et scientific community and society in general on the connec- al., 2006]. -
Development of an Objective Scheme to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity from Digital Geostationary Satellite Infrared Imagery
172 WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUME 13 Development of an Objective Scheme to Estimate Tropical Cyclone Intensity from Digital Geostationary Satellite Infrared Imagery CHRISTOPHER S. VELDEN AND TIMOTHY L. OLANDER Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, Madison, Wisconsin RAYMOND M. ZEHR Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, Colorado (Manuscript received 17 July 1996, in ®nal form 10 August 1997) ABSTRACT The standard method for estimating the intensity of tropical cyclones is based on satellite observations (Dvorak technique) and is utilized operationally by tropical analysis centers around the world. The technique relies on image pattern recognition along with analyst interpretation of empirically based rules regarding the vigor and organization of convection surrounding the storm center. While this method performs well enough in most cases to be employed operationally, there are situations when analyst judgment can lead to discrepancies between different analysis centers estimating the same storm. In an attempt to eliminate this subjectivity, a computer-based algorithm that operates objectively on digital infrared information has been developed. An original version of this algorithm (engineered primarily by the third author) has been signi®cantly modi®ed and advanced to include selected ``Dvorak rules,'' additional constraints, and a time-averaging scheme. This modi®ed version, the Objective Dvorak Technique (ODT), is applicable to tropical cyclones that have attained tropical storm or hurricane strength. The performance of the ODT is evaluated on cases from the 1995 and 1996 Atlantic hurricane seasons. Reconnaissance aircraft measurements of minimum surface pressure are used to validate the satellite-based estimates. Statistical analysis indicates the technique to be competitive with, and in some cases superior to, the Dvorak-based intensity estimates produced operationally by satellite analysts from tropical analysis centers. -
The Spread of Tropical Storm Tracks in Three Versions of NCEP's Global
JUNE 2019 C O L B Y 577 The Spread of Tropical Storm Tracks in Three Versions of NCEP’s Global Ensemble Model: Focus on Hurricane Edouard (2014) FRANK P. COLBY JR. University of Massachusetts Lowell, Lowell, Massachusetts (Manuscript received 7 September 2018, in final form 11 March 2019) ABSTRACT Since 2012, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) has undergone two major upgrades. Version 11 was introduced in December 2015, with a new dynamic scheme, improved physics, increased horizontal and vertical resolution, and a more accurate initialization method. Prior to implementation, retrospective model runs over four years were made, covering multiple hurricane seasons. The second major upgrade was implemented in May 2016, when the data assimilation system for the de- terministic Global Forecast System (GFS) was upgraded. Because the GEFS initialization is taken from the deterministic GFS, this upgrade had a direct impact on the GEFS. Unlike the previous upgrade, the model was rerun for only a few tropical cyclones. Hurricane Edouard (2014) was the storm for which the most retrospective runs (4) were made for the new data assimilation system. In this paper, the impact of the GEFS upgrades is examined using seasonal data for the 2014–17 hurricane seasons, and detailed data from the four model runs made for Hurricane Edouard. Both upgrades reduced the spread between ensemble member tracks. The first upgrade reduced the spread but did not reduce the likelihood that the actual track would be included in the family of member tracks. The second upgrade both reduced the spread further and reduced the chance that the real storm track would be within the envelope of member tracks. -
Real-Case Simulations of Hurricane–Ocean Interaction Using a High
VOLUME 128 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW APRIL 2000 Real-Case Simulations of Hurricane±Ocean Interaction Using A High-Resolution Coupled Model: Effects on Hurricane Intensity MORRIS A. BENDER NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey ISAAC GINIS Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, Rhode Island (Manuscript received 13 July 1998, in ®nal form 2 April 1999) ABSTRACT In order to investigate the effect of tropical cyclone±ocean interaction on the intensity of observed hurricanes, the GFDL movable triply nested mesh hurricane model was coupled with a high-resolution version of the 1 Princeton Ocean Model. The ocean model had /68 uniform resolution, which matched the horizontal resolution of the hurricane model in its innermost grid. Experiments were run with and without inclusion of the coupling for two cases of Hurricane Opal (1995) and one case of Hurricane Gilbert (1988) in the Gulf of Mexico and two cases each of Hurricanes Felix (1995) and Fran (1996) in the western Atlantic. The results con®rmed the conclusions suggested by the earlier idealized studies that the cooling of the sea surface induced by the tropical cyclone will have a signi®cant impact on the intensity of observed storms, particularly for slow moving storms where the SST decrease is greater. In each of the seven forecasts, the ocean coupling led to substantial im- provements in the prediction of storm intensity measured by the storm's minimum sea level pressure. Without the effect of coupling the GFDL model incorrectly forecasted 25-hPa deepening of Gilbert as it moved across the Gulf of Mexico. -
Front Matter (PDF)
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