Institutional Equities This page has been intentionally left blank IV Institutional Equities Infrastructure Sector 26 September 2011 Light At The End Of The Tunnel View: Positive The infrastructure sector has witnessed many pitfalls in the last two years which have hurt investor sentiment. We believe the valuation of the sector is Amit Srivastava close to the bottom as the stocks of infrastructure companies have corrected
[email protected] between 60%-75% in the period July 2010 to August 2011. Post correction, they +91-22-3926 8116 are trading 33%-47% below their five-year historical average price-to-earnings of 20x-44x. We believe slower order inflow, rising interest rates, regulatory issues Nitin Arora and earnings downgrade have been largely discounted by the market. Although
[email protected] we believe the earnings will not improve significantly, concerns over rising +91-22-3926 8169 interest rates, regulatory issues and execution risks are likely to subside in the short term, thereby leading to outperformance by infrastructure stocks. Sector Sector Fundamentals versus valuation: We believe the infrastructure sector is currently moving from a moderation phase to a slowdown phase, and the slowdown has started One Year Indexed Performance hurting profitability (as seen from a sharp decline in earnings in 1QFY12 by 97% YoY) 230 which will continue in the short term. However, as the slowdown has already been 210 190 factored in (stock prices have declined by around 60%- 75% between July 2010 170 150 & August 2011), we believe the sector is set for a re-rating as FY13 net profit for 130 our universe of companies is set to grow by 44%.