Situation and Anticipatory Impact Analysis Needs Assessment Working Group Monsoon Flood 2020 Version: 3rd Update Medium to High Level of Flood Forecasted 13 July 2020 (5-20 Years Return Period Flood)

Highest Peak 7.53 3.80 1.37 Bahadurabad Point, 17 July Million Million Million 71% of Probability of High Exposed Population Women Katcha and Jhupri Houses Flooding (Glofas)

Bahadurabad, Sariakandi, Chilmari, Low lying Char, Flood 18 July , Jamalpur, , plain, Main land date of the peak Station Forecasted Danger Level of flood Inside and Outside the 2nd Spell Monsoon Flood Exceeds from 08 July Protection Embankment from 15 July -30 July (Probabilistic forecast , FFWC ) PROJECTED IMPACTS VULNERABLE POPULATION BREAKDOWN 0.11 0.84 2.48 0.61 0.22 11.29% million Million Million Million Million Area of from forecasted districts Persons With Infant and Child Child and adolescent Elderly Population Pregnant Women % of Areas to be flooded Disability (0-59 Months) (5 to 19 age) (Age 60+) Validated on 13th July, THRESHOLD FOR RESPONSE PLAN ACTIVATION Glofas 4-10 Days Forecast Risk Level Trigger/Thresholds Anticipations and Likelihood Anticipated Impact Recommendations Negligible Exposed Population: 7.53 million people exposed moderate High Resolution Map with Upazila Label Minor flooding. (Threshold is Min. 2,000,000 people exposed to flood Geographic Medium water inundation) Exposures High The HCTT contingency From Critical Water level Medium to High 307From 75 21 Displacement: Projected 12% (2,833,757 ) people within the plan impact scenario forecasted at and Level of Flood above danger level 24,479,820 people in flood impacted nine (9) districts are coincide with the Upazilas Districts up to 1m in estimated to be temporarily displaced. (Threshold is Min. 10% of exposed population and Risk Unions Jamuna river at 6 people of the overall population in the flood affected area are inundation of cultivable Forecasted Population Number Number Number of Probability observation points displaced ) also meet displacement Return Period of Exposed Union of Districts including criteria. (Interpolation Flood (Flood Upazila Bahadurabad. Inundation of Cultivable Land: 222,840 Hectare km cultivable from Glofas forecast). Severity Level) lands are anticipated to be inundated for 7-1 days.(Threshold is [More than 90% Probability of 5 Min. 5,000 hectares of crop land exposed to inundation) 5-20 Years years Return Period Return Period 3,038,598 136 38 15 and 50-60% Historical Major Recent Monsoon Flood (High) Probability of 20 Years Return Date (from –to) Number of Affected: Severely Affected Districts Population Period] Districts- Upazila-Union Affected 2-5 Years 4,498,610 [More than 90% 171 38 8 Probability Flood] 10- 28 July 2019 28-162- 1056 9 District: Bagura, , Jamalpur, Kurigram, 7.6 Million Return Period Sirajganj, , , , Bandarban (Medium) 0-2 Years Approxima [More than 90% 15 -27 August 2017 32-176-1173 9 District: Kurigram, Gaibandha, Jamalpur, 8.2 million 356 86 21 Probability Flood] , , Rangpur, Nilphamari, Bagura, Return Period -tely Sirajganj of Flooding 7 Million Note: Some of the district and upazila included in both of forecasted return period Needs Assessment Working Group Bangladesh District Wise Exposed Population with Projected Impact of Monsoon Flood 2020 No.s of Upazila 2 to 5 No.s of Union_ Total Union to 2 to 5 % of Union Exposed Total Population % of Population Percentages No.s of Union_2-5 Years and 5 to 20 % of Areas Exposed to 2 to Projected Percentages 5-20 Years Return Years and 5 to 20 to more to 2 to 5 Exposed to 2 to 5 Exposed to 2 to 5 Division District of Extreme Years Return Period Years Return 5 Years and 5 to 20 Years Population of Poor 2017 Period Flood (high Years Return Period Years and 5 to 20 Years and 5 to 20 Years and 5 to 20 Poor 2017 Flood(Medium Risk) Period(High and Return Period Risk) (High and Medium) Years Return Period Years Return Period Years Return Period Medium) Bogura 3,792,412 13.51 27.22 6 6 5.00% 2 119,901 10% 3.16% Chattogram Chandpur 2,554,203 15.28 29.31 4 4 4.21% 1 69,432 3% 2.72% Dhaka 16,461,517 1.66 10.02 3 3 1.44% 1 45,297 4% 0.28% Dhaka Faridpur 2,065,705 3.18 7.73 6 6 12 14.46% 3 81,270 12% 3.93%

Rangpur Gaibandha 2,619,376 28.90 46.66 12 12 14.12% 4 421,438 31% 16.09%

Mymensingh Jamalpur 2,473,509 35.21 52.52 14 14 18.92% 4 358,494 22% 14.49% Dhaka Kishoreganj 3,230,134 34.08 53.54 32 32 27.12% 8 700,683 25% 21.69%

Rangpur Kurigram 2,355,232 53.92 70.82 7 36 43 57.33% 9 1,200,717 65% 50.98% Rangpur Lalmonirhat 1,404,708 23.04 41.98 18 18 40.91% 4 522,889 40% 37.22% Dhaka Madaripur 1,183,881 0.93 3.66 4 4 6.56% 1 72,033 10% 6.08% Dhaka 1,497,584 16.33 30.68 15 15 22.39% 3 250,866 29% 16.75% Dhaka Munshiganj 1,597,325 1.22 3.05 11 11 15.94% 2 184,056 16% 11.52% Mymensingh Mymensingh 5,741,770 9.59 21.98 16 16 10.26% 3 404,317 10% 7.04%

Mymensingh Netrakona 2,471,924 15.56 33.97 35 35 38.04% 8 836,503 37% 33.84% Rajshahi 2,882,437 16.84 32.98 10 10 12.05% 1 256,793 11% 8.91% Dhaka Rajbari 1,146,438 16.03 33.81 5 5 11.11% 2 112,732 14% 9.83%

Rangpur Rangpur 3,224,267 26.96 43.79 13 13 15.12% 3 453,393 14% 14.06% Dhaka Shariatpur 1,226,257 4.95 15.71 7 7 10.00% 3 111,637 23% 9.10% Mymensingh Sherpur 1,433,369 24.31 41.30 15 15 26.79% 5 414,221 24% 28.90% Dhaka Sirajganj 3,512,269 12.39 30.47 24 24 27.27% 5 692,428 33% 19.71% Dhaka Tangail 3,913,632 8.63 18.98 8 8 6.90% 3 228,108 10% 5.83% Total 21 Districts 66,787,950 136 171 307 16.23% 75 7,537,208 21% 11.29% Data Source: Glofas, 04 July and BBS. Validated on 13th July 2020 Union specific detail data can be download from this (PDF and EXCEL) link. High Impact Anticipated from 15 July to 30 July 2020 About the report: About the Working Group : The Needs Assessment Working Group (NAWG) is 1. The area of impacts identified by overlaying the GLOFAS 11-30 days the platform for government and non government humanitarian agencies For Live Updates forecast on 4 July 2020 and validated from the 4-10 Days forecast on 13th July under Humanitarian Coordination Task Team (HCTT). The secretariat of the 2020. Working Group is hosted by CARE Bangladesh under the “Supporting 2. Information from Different Sources (FBF Bangladesh Team, FFWC, BMD, Bangladesh Rapid Needs Assessment (SUBARNA) Project.” and BBS) are compiled and interpolated for this report. No information is Implemented By Fund Managed By Funded By generated nor developed by NAWG. 3. This report is only for internal use of Needs Assessment Working Group Bangladesh member’s preparatory activities not official information of GoB. 4. For Regular Updates: https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/bangladesh/needs- By assessment-working-group Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief Feedback and Contacts: Government of Bangladesh Disclaimer: This material has been funded by UK aid from the UK government, however [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official policies. Needs Assessment Working Group Bangladesh