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Kingmaker: the Rise of Mohammed Bin Salman Kingmaker: The Rise of Mohammed bin Salman ACW Research & Analysis Unit June 22, 2017 Kingmaker: The Rise of Mohammed bin Salman ACW Research & Analysis Unit On June 20, King Salman of Saudi Arabia Internal Saudi Politics restructured the line of succession to the Saudi Saudi Arabia’s domestic political dynamics of throne. The king elevated his favorite son, succession is a complicated affair, with royal Mohammed bin Salman, to Crown Prince, family members constantly jockeying for designating him the immediate successor to the power. Since King Salman rose to the throne in throne. The adjustment was all the more 2015, he has gradually disrupted the delicate stunning because deposed Crown Prince balance between familial factions in the House Mohammed bin Nayef was also removed as of Saud, increasing tensions and rivalry within Minister of Interior, a position that earned him the royal family. For instance, after becoming recognition and respect at home and abroad. king, Salman removed the sitting Crown Prince, The change in succession was fully expected— Muqrin, from power and replaced him with the octogenarian monarch has long looked to Mohammed bin Nayef, the same heir he his son to inherit the role—but it concludes the replaced with his son two years later on June 21. consolidation of power by the 31-year-old bin Salman since he was named Deputy Crown In addition to internal power struggles, Saudi Prince in 2015. regional policy has greatly shaped tensions in the royal family. Many factions within the With a younger, comparatively more liberal bin family have laid the blame for the disastrous Salman now poised to exert more influence, war taking place in Yemen at the feet of many questions about the implications of this Mohammed bin Salman, who as Minister of move arise. First, what will the effects be on the Defense is known to have spearheaded the very delicate balance of Saudi domestic politics? military campaign against the poorest country More uncertain, though, are the implications for in the region. The war in Yemen is at a deadlock Saudi foreign policy in the Gulf. Saudi Arabia is and the Saudi reputation continues to be sullied engulfed in an intractable war in Yemen and is internationally for the humanitarian crisis it in the midst of a vicious campaign alongside created, while bin Salman has no discernible other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) exit strategy. members targeting Qatar. The Crown Prince has displayed increasing hostility toward Saudi Strategically, however, internal affairs could be Arabia’s biggest rival, Iran, and his ascension affected to a greater degree. The deposed raises concerns about a potential confrontation Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef oversaw between the two Gulf opponents. Lastly, with the Ministry of Interior, which is responsible for the White House and State Department on internal security and counterterrorism efforts different wavelengths regarding GCC allies, it is within the kingdom and beyond. During his important to consider how the Saudi reshuffle tenure, Mohammed bin Nayef was universally will affect US-Saudi relations. viewed as capable of providing stability and security—so much so that the United States viewed him personally as the premier ally in the 1 Arab Center Washington DC June 2017 fight against terrorism in the Arabian Peninsula. conditions at a time when even its US ally is He was considered a respectable leader, and wary of providing additional weapons for the survived four assassination attempts believed war. to be due to his work in counterterrorism. In Mohammed bin Salman is also partly response, as Deputy Crown Prince and defense responsible for another Saudi crisis. The GCC minister, Mohammed bin Salman initiated the rift with the Qatari government is driven by the creation of a National Security Center, thus young Saudi Crown Prince and his Emirati consolidating his powers even over internal counterpart, Mohammed bin Zayed. In the security matters and sidelining then Interior ongoing campaign and blockade against Qatar, Minister and Crown Prince bin Nayef. Now as bin Salman will determine, to a large extent, the Crown Prince, and while he still does not course of the crisis. Bin Salman could choose to officially oversee the interior portfolio, bin maintain the current siege and allow Qatar to Salman will be tasked with managing several, suffer and eventually succumb to Saudi and often competing pillars in Saudi society. For Emirati demands. Some observers even suggest example, if any of his more liberal policy that Mohammed bin Salman could be moved to proposals upset the ultraconservative factions undertake military action. Saudi Arabia and of Saudi leadership and society, it will be crucial Qatar have held a border dispute and it is an for the young Crown Prince to avoid any open secret that the Saudis would like regime backlash that could jeopardize the security of change in Qatar. Perhaps the hawkish bin the kingdom. Salman could turn to the military to achieve such changes. As for Qatar, it remains Regional Politics vulnerable to the whims of its bigger neighbor. On the regional level, Mohammed bin Salman The Qatari government always preferred has overseen Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the Mohammed bin Nayef as heir to the throne, and Yemen war as Minister of Defense since King now that the more aggressive Mohammed is Salman ascended the Saudi throne. However, Crown Prince, the Qataris may have to placate the war is only more perilous now that bin the Saudis. Salman is Crown Prince. It is unclear how he Perhaps the biggest question regarding will aim to resolve the fighting, especially since Mohammed bin Salman’s ascension revolves the heightened humanitarian crisis in Yemen is around Saudi-Iranian relations. No Saudi ruler tarnishing the country’s reputation abroad. The has been friendly with the Islamic Republic over Crown Prince’s hawkish history might indicate the last few decades, but bin Salman has made a continuing aggressive approach to regional a special reputation for himself through his policies and particularly to matters involving belligerent rhetoric towards Iran. It is Iranian expansionism. However, escalating the conceivable—based on his track record of fighting in Yemen with overwhelming Saudi aggressive adventurism in Yemen—that military power would likely only worsen Kingmaker: The Rise of Mohammed bin Salman ACW Research & Analysis Unit Mohammed bin Salman could ramp up Saudi Nayef was the number one Saudi official to military activities in the region to counter work with on national security issues. Iranian actions. Tensions are already high Mohammed bin Salman must earn the trust and between the two powers and many fear that the respect of State Department officials who are chances of the two countries clashing is only critical of the siege of Qatar and, likely, his role heightened by bin Salman’s appointment to in it. such a powerful role. For Iran’s part, it called the There is even speculation that US preference for restructuring a “soft coup” by the Saudi Mohammed bin Nayef contributed to his government. proverbial overthrow. The announcement by King Salman of appointing his son as Crown US-Saudi Relations Prince came hours after the US Department of State—led by Tillerson’s mediation efforts in the When Saudi Arabia sent an envoy to GCC crisis—expressed frustration with Saudi Washington to greet the new American Arabia’s failure to present Qatar its list of president in March 2017, the youthful demands. King Salman was possibly offended Mohammed bin Salman was the face of the by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s criticism of welcoming party. Aside from flattering Saudi Arabia and elevated bin Salman to President Donald Trump, bin Salman forged a counter Tillerson’s growing influence in foreign strong personal relationship with another policy. Now, the new Crown Prince and future powerful thirty-something in Jared Kushner. King, Mohammed bin Salman, will likely try to Mohammed bin Salman’s influence has already use his relationship with the White House to been observed with President Trump’s visit to counter the State Department’s pressure. Riyadh for his first trip abroad, which bin Salman and Kushner organized in person, and the ensuing public support the kingdom has Conclusion received from the US president. The sudden—albeit predictable—change in However, the budding relationship will likely succession in Saudi Arabia spells danger for cool off as the Trump Administration faces stability and security in the Arabian Gulf and investigations, controversies, and a failing the broader Middle East. While it is too soon to policy agenda. For the Saudis, their interactions know the implications of Mohammed bin will likely be delegated back to the traditional Salman’s ascension to Crown Prince, serious custodian of US foreign policy: the Department questions have arisen regarding internal of State. This might not bode well for stability, the future of Saudi interventions in Mohammed bin Salman because to career Yemen and Qatar, and potential confrontations bureaucrats in Foggy Bottom—not to mention with Iran. Although the Trump Administration those in the Department of Defense and the seems to favor the young prince, it remains to Central Intelligence Agency—Mohammed bin 3 Arab Center Washington DC June 2017 be seen whether the Washington establishment will shape Saudi policy for decades to come as will trust him like it did Mohammed bin Nayef. Crown Prince and later as King. Will he continue his hawkish approach or adopt more While Mohammed bin Salman has been cautious and conventional policies in an already consolidating his power and gaining influence unstable region? since becoming Deputy Crown Prince in 2015, the significance of this move lies ahead. Now, the young aggressive Mohammed bin Salman For more analysis visit arabcenterdc.org .
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