AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK GROUP
NIGER
CONSTRUCTION OF A SECTION OF THE ZINDER-AGADEZ ROAD
Project Performance Evaluation Report (PPER)
OPERATIONS EVALUATION DEPARTMENT (OPEV)
5 September 1991 TABLEOF CONTENTS Pages
E$JMLENTSAND ABBREVIATIoNS (t) PREFACE (tt) BASICOATA (lv) SUI'II.IARYOF THE PTRFORMANCEAUDIT MEMORANDUM (v) CONCLUSIONS,LISSONS AND RECOMMËNDATIONS (vlll) PROJECTPERFORMANCE AUDIT MEMORANDUI.I I
I" INTRODUCTION I
.l EconomlcContext of the ProJect I .2 TheTransport Sector 2 .3 TheProJect: Identlflcatlon, Preparatlonand Appralsal 4 II. IMPLEME}ITATIO}IOF THE PROJECT 7 2.1 ChangesIn the ProJect 7 2.2 LoanEffectlveness l0 2.3 Procurementof Goodsand Servlces l0 2.4 ProJectImplementatlon Schedule ll 2.5 llorks Cost and Flnanclng t2 III. RESULTSOF THEPROJTCÏ l3 IV. INSTITUTIONALPERFOR}{ANCE l5
V. ECON0|-|ICPERF0RMAI'ICE 17
5.1 Developmentof the Area of Impactof the ProJect 17 '.. 5.2 1983-1990Trafflc Analysls l9 5.3 EconomlcRe-evaluatlon 21 1: VI. PERFORI{AiICESOF THE VARIOTJS PARTICIPAIIÎS 25
6. t Consul'tants 25 6,2 Contractors 25 6.3 Borrower 26 6.4 Bank ?.6
VII. EFFECTSON THE INVIRONI,IEI{T ?7
VIII. VIABILITYOF THEPROJECT 28
IX. CONCLUSIONSAND RECCI,II4ENDATIONS 3l ATTACHEDDOCUMEIIT: INTERIM AUDIT REPORT
Thts report has beenprepared by Hr. J.B. RAKOTOl.lAilIMlG,Senlor Clvll Englneerand Mr. RAI4ANDIMBIARISON,Transport Economlst (Consultant), followlng thelr mlsslonto Nlgerfrom I to 23 June1990.
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EqJMLENTSAND ABBREVIATIoI{S ,CurrencyEqulvalents lbnetary Unlt r CFAFrancs (CFAF) Onapprafsal of lot lB, FUAI r CFAF375,767 Oncompletlon of lot lB; FUAI . CFAF382,474 0n audltlngof lots lB, 28; FUA| . CFAF340.30 Averagerate durlngexecutlon of lots lB and28; FUA| . CFAF395,151 Unlts of Measure I kl lonntre t 0.62mlles I metre (m) r 3.28ft I sg. kl lometre(Km2) B 0.384square nlles I hectar (ha) r 2.47 acres I lltre (l) r 0.264gal I kl lograme (Kg) r 2.204lbs I ton (t) r 2.204lbs ABBREVIATIOIIS ADB - Afrlcan DevelopmentBank ABEDA r ArabBank for EconomlcDevelopment In Afrlca IDB r IslamlcDevelopnent Bank ' BGR r guiàaude la GâstlonRoutlère (Roads Managenent Bureau) DIITP r Dlrectlon du llatérlel des TravauxPubllcs (EqulpmentDepartment) OTP . Dlrectlon des TravauxPubltcs (Publlc llorks Department) DTT r Dlrectlon des TransportsTerrestres (Road Transport Oepartment) ADF r Afrlcan DevelopmentFund EDF r EuropeanDevelopment Fund Ft{I . Fondstlatlonal d'Investlssermnt(]{atlonal Investment Fund) SDF ! SaudlDevelopment Fund l{TP r lilnlstère desTravaux Publlcs (}llnlstry of Publlc}forks) OPEC . Organlzatlonof PetroleumExportlng Countrles PIC r Plan Intermédlafre de Consolldatlon(Intermdlate Consolldrtlon Plan) UIIDP r Unlted llatlons DevelopmentProgramme PCR r ProJectCompletlon Report PPAR . ProJectPerformance Audlt Report
Ffscal Year
I Januaryto 3l December fi|)
PREFACE
I. Thls docunent Is the Interlm ProJect PerformanceAudft Report ; (PPAR) "Constructlon concernlngthe of a sectlon of the Zlnder-AgadezRoad" ln i l{lger, for whlch the BankGroup, ln November1983, granted an FUAl0 mllllon loan to the illger Government.
2. The sectlon flnanced by ADF, Lot lB, ls part of the Sôuth Lot of ,ï the Zlnder-AgadezRoad rhose total unlmprovedlength ls 447 Km, comprlslngthe SouthLot (2'15Km) and the North Lot (232 Km).
3. TheobJectlves of the proJectwere (l) to establlsha permanentand more dlrect tlnk betyeenZlnder, the maJortown of the Central South reglon Ï rhlch ls the prlnclpal agrlcultural area, and Agadez,that of the Central llorth reglon, where the maln actlvlty ls stock breedtng and manymlneral resourcessuch as uranlumare found and (ll) as a result, lmprovea portlon of the Alglers-LagosTrans-Saharan Hlghway runnlng throughZlnder.
: 4. The total estlmatedcost of the South lot ïas FUA55.68 mllllon The proJect was co-flnanced by the lùcrld Bank, EDF,and the Arab Funds (IDB, ABEDA,Saudl Fund/OPEC)rhose contrlbutlons totalled FUA56.74 mllllon. The , South lot yas dtvtded lnto Lot IA, Lot lB and lot lC flnancedby EDF,ADF and the Arab Funds.
5. The works of lots lA, lB and lC rere conrpletedln 1987, 1986and 1988reipectlvely. Slnce there yere substantlalbalances of the loans of all the ftnanclers, lt wasdeclded to lmproveother sectlonsof the North Lot; Lot j 24, flnancedwlth the EDFbalance uas completed1n 1988;Lot 28, flnancedwlth the ADF loan balancerras completedIn 1987; Lot 2C, flnanced rlth the Arab Funds loan balance ls under executlon; the last sectlon, Lot 38 ls under lmprovementon Bankflnanclng. The Bankproduced an Interlm PCRon Lots lB and 28 ln November1988.
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6. ThePPAR has been prepared follorlng a BankAudlt mlsslonto Nlger fron I to 23 June1990. It refers to the PCRand the Inltlal appralsalreport and ls basedon (t) Informatlonavallable In Bankdocuments concernlng the proJectand (ll) the Audlt team'sdlscusslons and exchange of vfeys wlth top offlcers of the proJectexecutlng agency as uell as the Bankstaff concerned.
7. fne ppen comprlsesa revlew of the Borrorer's economlcsltuatlon, àn analysls of the lmplementatlonof the proJect, àr examlnatlonof the results and an evaluatlon of the performancesof the proJect and of the varlous partles uhtch contrlbutedto lts reallzatlon. It drars approprlate concluslons, notes lessons and makesreccxnnendatlons to the Borrorer and to the Bankalmed at (l) sustalnlngthe beneflts generatedby the proJect, and facllltatlng lmprovementand (tt) ensurlngoptlrnal deslgn and executlonof future proJects.
8. Thepresent document ls an Interlm PPARwhlch ylll be supplemented to producethe flnal PPARon completlonof the rrorksof Lots 38 and2C.
9. The Executlng Agency, the Governmentof Ntger and the Bank's Operatlonal Departmentshave been sent coples of thl s PPARfor thelr corments. Thelr commentshave been taken Into accountIn thls verslon of the PPAR.
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ÉastcpRoJgcr oltR t*)
A. Loan
l. FlnanclngRequest I 983 2. Amount(FUA mllllon) 10.0 3. Negotlatlons il /83 4. Approval il /83 5. Slgntng I /84 6. Entrylnto Force 2t85 B. ProJsct Estlmates Real Dlfference , l. Costof Lot lB (tn CFAFmllllon) : 4167 2363 -43.31 : 2. Cormencementof Lot lB works z 9184 2185 + 5 mols ' 3. Completlonof Lot lB works : 4185 1186 + 9 mols C. Perform4ru:eIndlcators l. ExecutlngAgency and Borrower Satlsfactory 2. Contractors Satlsfactory 3. ConsultantIn charge'ofthe study Falr 4. ConsultantIn chargeof rorks Inspectlon Satlsfactory 5. ProJect Itledlocre(C)
* Detalls of the baslc data are provldedIn the CompletlonReport attached to the Audlt ilemorandum.
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SUM}IARYOF THEPERFORMAT'ICEAUDIT I{ÊI.ORAIIDUI'I,, CONCLUSIONS,LESSONSAND RECOMMENDATIOIIS
l. Surmaryof the Audlt Memorandun l.l The deslgn and formulatlonof the Zlnder-AgadezRoad Constructlon Project constantly evolved In keeplngvlth Nlger's economlcsltuatlon. The proJet ltas Inltlally ldentlfled as a proJect for sub reglonal cooperatlonand lntegrated developmentof Algerfa, Nlgerla and Nlger durtng a perlod of relatlvely posltlve growthof these countrles'econonfesIn generàl and that of lllger In partlcular. The ldentlflcatlon wasduly conductedon the basls of prellnlnary economlcand technlcal studles and ttlthln the fraræyork of the llatlonal Transport Plan, (1977) and the Natlonal tconomlcDevelopment Plan ( I 979-t983) .
1.2 TheproJect ras preparedby the Governmentylth the asslstanceof consultantsand rlth UNDPflnanclng. The studles conductedas part of the preparatlonconcerned technfcal and economlc aspects of the proJect, noï belng conslderedessentlally as a natlonalproJect for the openlngup of t{lger. The assumptlonscontalned ln the preparatlon studles turned out to be over-optlmlstlc and dld not take accollntof the negatlvegronth trends of the Nlger economywhlch were already emerglng durlng the preparatlonperlod. The studfesshoued the proJecteconomlc rate of return to be relatlvely htgh (14ï).
r.3 Thecomblned dlsastrous effects of droughtand the decllne In uorld prlces of uranlum- l{lger's malnexport cormodlty- uere felt starttng f,rom 1983,the year In rhlch the proJectwas appralsed by the flnanclers lnetudtnE ADF. Despltethe dtfflcult economlcsltuatlon prevallfngfn t{lgerat the ttme of appralsal, the forecast remalnedoptTmlstlc and the proJect economlc cvâluatlon basedon estlnates prepareddurlng the perlod shoreda 13trrate of return, conslderedsatlsfactory. Horever,durlng preparatlonof an economfc rehabllltatlon prograrmefor l{tger, vlth the collaboratlonand supportof the llorld Bank, the latter had dravn the Nlger C'ovennment'sattentlon to the Inopportunessof the constructlon of the Ztnder-AgadezRoad, glven tha unfavourableeconomic trends. In 1985,the Governrentcarrled out an economlc
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re-appralsal of the proJect whlch showedthat the economlcrate of return could fall as far downas'about 71, basedon the conservatlveassumptlons regardlngmedlum-term revlval of the Nlgereconomy, or attaln ll1, uslngthe nnreoptlml stl c forecasts.
1.4 Dueto resourceconstralnts, the proJectas descrlbedIn the ADF appralsal report nas llmtted to lmprovementof a 215 km portlon of the Zlnder-AgadezRoad called the SouthLot, nlth the other part, a 232 Kmlong untarredstretch called the NorthLot, to be regularlymalntalned by the l{lger Government.The proJect obJectlves stated at the tlme of ldentlflcatfon and preparatlonremalned unchanged l.e (l) establlshfnga permanentand il|ore dlrect llnk betreenZlnder and Agadez, (ll) openlngup the countryand (tll) contrlbutlng to the lmprovementof the Alglers-Lagosstretch of the Trans-saharanHlghway. The cost of the proJectSouth Lot vas estlmatedat FUA 55.6Smllllon. The SouthLot tras dlvlded lnto Lots lA, lB, and lC for parallel flnanclngby EDF,AOF and Arab Funds
1.5 The lmplementatlonof the proJect dld not ralse any partlcular technlcal problem: TheADF loan and the loans of other donorsrere brought Into effect after a perlodof aboutI year whlchcan be conslderedreasonable; the real cost of the yorks for the SouthLot werewell belowthe estlmatemade at appralsal;the balancesof the ADBloan and thoseof the co-flnancersuere so substantlalthat lt rlas posslbleto reallze 74.fl morethan Inltlally proJected. Theover-estlmatlon of costs rrasdue (l) to unlt prlce estlmates per kllometreof road whlchrrere very htgh slnce they werebased on prevlous contracts for slmflar workscarrled out ln marketenvlronnnnts whîch Yere completelydlfferent from that of the proJect,(ll) hlgh contlngencyand prlce escalag1onprovlslons. Procurementof goodsand servlcesuas In conpllance rlth Bankprocedures and dtd not poseany maJorproblems. It ls howeverto be notedthat the procedureInvolvlng clauses for addttlonalprocurerflent of goqds and servlces(further to the extenslonof the proJecton accountof the loan balancesavallable) Iras not the rncstefflclent meansof obtalnlng the most advantageousworks costs, eventf tt rrasexpedltlous from the admlnlstltative
t Ësoloeggtl (vll)
standpolnt. TheproJect tras properly supervlsedby the Bankand the executlng agency regularly submttted works progress reports. The contractor's performanceyas satlsfactory. Certafn aspectsof the servlcesprovlded by the consultantresponslble for'studles l,ere deflclent: the assumptlonsfor the 1982trafftc forecast wereover-optlmlstlc rltth the result that the proJect bèneflts rêrë over-assessed;the rorks costs rere clearly over-estlmatedand thls explalnsthe scallngdown of the project.
1.6 The results qf the proJect appear satlsfactory: the road ra$ constructedln conformltlartth the technlcalspgctftcatloyrs and has geometrlc andmeçhanlcal fÊatures rhtch wlll allow for free flow of real andforeseeable traff|c at a dpeedof 100 Ktl/hour. The,technlcalobJectfve has been 'attalned. TheobJectlve of provldtngNlger access to the ports of Algerfahas 'been only parttalty attalned, becauseof the bottlenecksconstltuted by tracks on efther slde of the Algerla-f{lgerborder. It ls hlghly probablethat the çblecttve of llnklng Zlnderand Agadezpermanently and more dïrectty vfll be attalned,glnce the ,last unlmprovedsectlon ls presentlybelng tarred.
I I' l.,l Ttg proJect dfd not lnvoÏve ? coNnponerrtfor devetopmentof and Instftutlonal suBportto the roadssub-sector. Horrbver,cerf,aln Instltutlonal hpve cqvergd proJectsflnapced !$ToStl bgeq by other hy other Investors, and ,lnprovgpon! tfla rrsult fifs teGnq slbttiît!ll Il #hr rfilnlstr.ftT tnq nanagementof the road sub-sector by the Mtnlstry of Publfc lùcrks. In partfcular,these proJects have led to (l) thç pltlhlllhmentqf ths EUrelude lr GastlonRoutlère.(BGR), whlch 1s responslblefor monltorlngand programf ng perfodlcalmalntenance works and appears to functlonsatlsfactorlly at present a1d tll) the settlng up of a roadsub-sector personnel tralntng centrc
ii 1.8 The economlcevaluatlon t; the"appralsal report arrtved'iit (l) a rate of return of 141for the "SouthLot bltumenstandard road and"ffoftn:idï rnlntalned earth road", for cormnlsslonlngIn I987 and (ll) a 13trrate of rrturrl for the entlrely bltgnenlzedZlnder-Agadez road proJect. Theserates ïere extrapolatedfrom trafflc counts carried out 1n 1981. Comparlsonof 1985-1990real trafftc vlth that proJectedln the appralsalreport for the sameperlod showsthat:
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(l) normalreal trafflc representsan averageof only 23trof the estlmates , (lt) the generated(lnduced)/normal trafflc rate of 507"I s actually too hlgh. r.9 Theaudlt teamcarrled out an economlcre-appralsal of the proJect on the baslsof (t) real trafflc satlstlcs up to 1990,(tt) the real cost of rorks completedprlor to 1990,and (Ttl) trafffc forecastsstartlng from 1991 and the expectedcost of on-golngworks. In the audtt report, the rate of return calculatedfn respectof the Zlnder-Agadezroad fully constructedto bftumenstandard for commlsslonlngIn 199111992ls 6.5tror half of the rate calculatedon appralsal.The audlt mlsslon's rate ls.verynear to that of the 1985update study and lt ls expectedto rlse whenthe Zlnder-Agadezroad ls entlrely bttumenlzed en I 991. l. l0 The effects of the proJect oR the envlronmentare on the whole posltlve: ellmlnatlonof dust ralsed by clrculatlon on earth roads, lmprovementof boreholeson norksltes for the supplyof drtnkl ng waterto the surroundlngvl I lages. t.ll The beneflts derlved from the proJect can be sustalned wlth the lmplementatlonof the Ntger Government'ssound perlodlcal road malntenance pollcy (rncnltorlng,programmlng) andr glven the efflclency of the regular malntenanceservlces of the MTP'sPubltc llcrks Department,vhose malntenance budgetrrlll hoveverbe Increased.0n the other hand,these beneflts could (f) decllne rapldly In the absenceof control of the overloadsof the heavy vehlclesplylng the roadsof Nlger,or (tt) stagnate,lf the remalnderof the Alglers-Agadez-Zlnder-LagosTrans-saharan I lnk ls not upgraded.
2. Concluslon.LessonJ and Recomtendatlons
2.1 Cotrclusion
(l) 0n the whole, the Zlnder-AgadezRoad proJect ïas ldentffled opportunely as a sub-reglonal lntegration proJect. The ldentlflcatlon studles were satlsfactorl ly conducted. The preparationstudles rlere basedon over-optlmlstlcassumptlons
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concernlngthe evolutlon of the proJect area of lmpactand the Nlger economy. The proJect costs vlere over-estlmated,wlth the result that the flnanclers (ADF, EDF,Arab Funds)were obllged to scale dorn the proJect to the South Lot whlch representsonly half of the Zlnder-Agadezroad. Nevertheless, the substantlal loan balancesmade lt posslble to extendthe proJect South Lot and lmprove approxlmately 871 of the total length of the road (74.1I morethan proJected). Theremalnlng 131 ls flnanced by the Bank and ls under executlon. The proJect South Lot scheduledfor cormlsslonlng In 1987 vas actually completed I n I 988; the entfrely bf tumen-surfaced Zlnder-AgadezRoad vlll probablybe completedln l99l
Q) The lmplementatlonof the proJectdld not ralse any partlcular problems: the performancesof the contractors, the Borroyer and the Bank vere satlsfactory; someaspects of the servlces of the consultant responslble for studles were below expectatlon. The constructedroad can reallze the proJected trafflc flov wlthout dlfflculty and at an acceptablebaslc speed. Real, normaltrafflc noted up to 1990represents only nf of total proJectedtrafflc. The trafflc Increase rate should be hlgher whenthe Zlnder-AgadezRoad has been totally bltumenlzed. The re-estlmatedrate of return of the road ls 6.51, assumlngthe Governmentwt I I carry out malntenance sultably; otherwlse, the rate could fal I to 3.51. The expected economlc beneflts can be sustalned . lf the Government'scurrent road malntenancepollcy remalns under lmplementation I n the medium-term. The proJect's cost-effectlveness could lncrease slgnlflcantly when the Alglers-LagosTrans-Saharan llnk throughZlnder and Agadezhas beencompleted.
BS0/0299M (3) 0n the whole,the proJecthas beenan averagesuccess.
2.2 Lessons
The lessonswhlch can be drawnfrom expertenceIn relatlon to the Zl nder-AgadezRoadproJect are as follows:
The perlods betweenldentlflcatlon, preparatlonand appralsal of proJects are sometimeslong and the economlccondltlons at the tlme of preparatlonand/or appralsal maydlffer from those at the tlme of t dentlfl catlon. Examlnatlon of the Zlnder-Agadezroad proJect has shownthat (l) rates of return may vary conslderablydependlng on the economlccontext and (ll) at each stage of the proJect cycle, there ls need to revlew the Borrower'ssltuatlon and economlcprospects, to avold adoptlngover-optlmlstlc assumptlons for the calculatlon of the proJect'srate of return. .t
2. The Zlnder-Agadezroad constructlonproJect, on the one hand, recelved the total and flrm supportof lnvestors such as ADF, EDFand the Arab Fundsand, on the other hand, uas questloned by the l.{orld Bankrlhlch conslderedthat perlodlc malntenance deserved prlorlty over constructlon, conslderlng l{lger's dlfflcult economlcsltuatlon. In such cases, coordlnatlonof donors'actlvltles ls fundamentalslnce dlvergencymay llmlt the efflcency of the measuresadopted by all concernedand .& thus result In lnadequate resource al locatlon, to the detrlmentof the Borrower.
3. The cost of the Zlnder-AgadezRoad ras over-assessed.As a result, the Borrouerand the lnvestorswere obllged to revler the proJecton a reducedscale. ti {
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4. Someflnanclal beneflt maybe obtalned by dlvldlng worksof, a certaln volumelnto lots, provldedeach lot fs executedwtthln a year, makfnglt posslbleto avoldprlce revfsfon.
5. In casesof substantlalmodlftcatlon of worksand therefore of the llst of goodsand servlces, and where two or severallocal enterprlses capable of successful'lyexecutl ng the attendant addltlonalworks can be tdentlfled, llmtted blddlngmay glve better prlcesthan addltlonal clause to the malncontract.
6. l.fereI nspectlonI s not enoughto assessthe qualI ty of a completed road: roughnessand deflectlon measurssare necessary.These make lt posslble,not only to characterlzo the roadwayfollowlng lts completlon,but also to lay down baslccrlterla for monltorlnglts subsequentperformance.
7. Thetrafflc level ls oneof the prlmarylndlcators of economlc Justlflcatlon of,a road proJect. Erroneousassessment of baslc trafftc maylead to an over-optlmlstlctrafflc forecast and,consequently, to an unJustlfledrate of return.
8. The trafftc forecast of a road largely dependson the potentlalof lts areabf lmpact,Includlng the agrlculturalor I ndustrlal developmentprogramnes uhlch the Borrower envlsages. Fallure to fmplementsuch prograrmescompronlses the roadproJect's profl tabl I I ty.
2.3 Recommendatlons
Glventhe above,In the llght of experlencesof the proJectand In order to enhance(l) the performancesof the Nlger road sub-sectorIn general and the proJect In partlcular, and (l I ) the deslgnand lmplementatlonof future proJects,recomnendatlons are madeas follovs:
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A. To the Borrower
l. Pursuemedlum-term appllcatlon of lts present pollcy of preservatlon of the acqulred road sub-sector Infrastructure, and rlgorously programmeperlodlcal malntenance;
2. Carry out . roughnessand deflectlon measureson the Zlnder-AgadezRoad as soonas lt ts completedIn l99l;
3. ProvI de the Roadl'lanagement Bureau and the PublI c llorks Laboratorythe flnanclal resourcesrequlred for regular fol low up and auscultatlon of the road and to perlodlcally checkaxel welghts;
4. Install welgh-brldgesat the bordervlth l{lgerla, on the Zlnderslde;
5. Ensurethat the flnal reports preparedby the consult- ants contaln al 1 t nformatlon pertl nent to the malntenanceand use of the road;
5. Improve coordlnatlon betreen the servlces of the .i l'llnl stry of PublI c ltcrks and the Mlnl stry of Transport andmoreespeclallybetweenthePub||c}|rcrksandLand TransportDepartments, maklng clear the responsblllttes : of thosetwo departments;
7.Strengthenagr|culturaldevelopmentprogranmes|nthe proJect areas of Impact, partlcularly In AIR and : DAMERGOIJ;
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8. Consldersolutlons to varlousadnlnlstratlve obstacles vl th a vl ew to developlng I nter-state transport (Algert a-Lybl a-Nl ger-Nl ger I a) and fl nalI ze bl I ateral agreementon roadtransport;
i 9. Increase current malntenance al locatlons I n order to ;:; l meetthe real needst
, 10. Coordlnate I nternal act.lvl tl es rel atl ng to the trans- f Saharanllnk rlth lts sub-reglonalpartners ln order to r fln|shofftherema|n|ngsect|ons,e|thers|mu|taneously or one after the other. ':
B. The Bank
l. Adopt extenslve proJect formulatlon, lf the Borrowerls In economlcdlfflculty, So as to allow for a certafn i,, degree of flexlbtllty In respect of economl. ': f I uctuatlons;
2. Carry out perlodtcal lnterln evaluatlonsof the proJect, I n cases where the borrower I s undertaklng sI zeable economlc reforrns:
3. Drar up a procedurefor approval, through addltlonal clauses, and avard of supplementary contracts for amountsexceedlng 201. of the loan;
4. Carefullyestlmate rorks costson the basls of a market analyslsconcernlng slmllar works;
5. tnsure,at the tlme of appralsal,that the development programmesto be conductedIn the proJect area are reallstlc andllkely to recelvethe supportof lnvestors; .
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5. Ensure,at the tlme of appralsal, that the trafftc lncreaseassumptlons used by the Borrowerare reallstlc;
7. Parilclpate |,lth IDB In the promotlon of the Trans- Saharan Road ProJect and al so support the efforts of illger and Atgerla to convert the tracks on elther slde of thelr bordersInto permanentroads, so as to Inltlate sub-reglonallntegratlon of Nlger, Algerla and Nlgerla uslng the Alglers-Agadez-Ztnder-Lagosportlon of the Trans-SaharanHl ghwaY.
È : :'
BS0/0299M PROJECTPERFORI{AIICE AUDIT I.IEMORANDUM
I. I1{TRODIJCTIOl{
l.t EconomlcContext of the ProJect
l.l.l Durlngthe 1970sand up to 1980,the lllger economygrer rapldly as a result of the developmentof the uranlumsub-sector and agrlculture. The GDPgrorth rate In real terms averaged8tr per year.
trn the early 1980's, the declI ne In uorld uranlumprlces In addltlon to droughtplunged lllger Into an economlccrlsls characterlsedby:
' reducedexport earnlngs r the decllne of the gross dmestlc product r f,lnanclal and budgetarylrùalance, and t an Increase In debt servlclng exceedlng 30É of export earnlngs.
1.f.2 The annualGDP grorth rate fell from -4.4I In 1982to -16.8t In 1984. Uranlunexport elrnlngs steadlly sunk. Thecontrlbutlon of the uranlum sub-sector to the GDPuas lfln 81, and 6Z durlng the perlods 1978-1980, lgBl-1985and 1985-1989respectlvely. Stockralslng, rnotherof the country's forelgn exchangeearnerE, ras hard hlt by drought; agrlcultural productlon drlndled, obllglng illger to Increasecereal lnports to supplementlts food resources. Thecontrlbutlon of the rural sector to the GDPdropped from CFAF ÉZOltllNon In 1983to 202blllton In 1985ln constantterms, 1.0 en averege decllneof 4.4 per year.
| . | .3 To reverse these unfavourable economlc trends, the Government embarkedon a serles of adJustnentprogranmes almed at llmltlng Internal and rxternal flnanclal lmbalance,stabl I lzlng the economyand revlvlng growth. Eetreen1985 and 1988,the economlcsltuatlon lmproved;the GDPIn real terms recordeda grorth of 3.5trper year. TheInflation rate, measuredylth the GDP deflator, carnedown to an annual averageof 2.41"durlng the sameperlod rhereaslt had stoodat 11.71durlng the precedlngperlod. The tabte belor sumsup the evolutlonof the malneconomlc Indlcators durlng the 1980s.
BSO/029S,1 2-
TABLEI EVOLUTIOI{OF PRINCIPALECONOMIC IÎ{DICATORS
1982 1983 1984 r98s 1986 1987 1988 1989 AnnualVariation (/) : gbP(at current prices) 5.3 -16.8 7.8 3.8 -0.7 7.7 -3.3 - - - -0.2 GOPDeflator il.8 5.9 4.2 1.2 0.5 11 -s.9 -rs.2 -il.2 -s.8 Export (FOB) 2.0 7.8 î Inport (CIF) -16.8 14.2 -20.6 5.7 - 5.0 -6.6 ki
GOP(at current prices ln CFAFbillion) 660.9 685.9 638.5 647.0 643.9 649.9 694.2 669.9 0verall balanceof payments(in CFAFbillion) 47 - 3.9 17.6 3.1 3.9 2.4 12.7 - 5.0
Oebt servlcing prior to rescheduling .'; (Z of non factor export) 33 40.5 5l .3 48.7 46.6 rt8 44
Source : blorld Bank : 1.1.4 In 1989, adversecllmatlc condltlons brought down agrlcultural : productlon by approxlmately zÏt,llorld uranlumprlces remafned on the declIne, brlnglng dorn Nlger's balanceof paymentsrrhlch recordeda CFAF5 bllllon :i deflclt. Despltethls dlfflcult sltuatlon In 1989,GDP growth averaged l.8I' i per year durlng the perlod 1985-1989. Thls growth rate remalnedlower than that of the populatlonwhlch reached an averageof 3.21 durlng the sameperlod. .i:
1.1.5 In 1990, adJustmentefforts have not yet ylelded the expected resulis. To consolldatethe actlon taken, the Governmentls negotlatlng,wlth the ItlF and Hortd Bank, a secondadJustment prograrrne coverlng the perlod 1990-1992,wlth the follorrlngmaln obJectlves:
r to attaln and sustaln a GDPgrowth rate of approxlmately3X. i to narrouthe current external deflclt.
1.2. TheTrânsport Sector (see detalls ln the PCR)
1.2.1 At the tlme of appralsal,the transport systemvras characterlsed by:
r the large numberof land transport vehlcles fn generaland roadtransportvehicleslnparttcularwhtchcarrledout95trof Nlger's tl"ade f low; the country's maln productlon and consumptloncentres vrere lnterlinked by maJorroads whlch were tarredand generally in goodcondltlon.
i,j :l
':i
BSO|0299l,l .t 3-
the role playedby rall transporton Benfneseterrltory along wtth road transporton Nlger terrltory, ln the dlstrlbutlon of productsgolng or comlngthrough the port of Cotonou,the malnport provldtngNlger access to the outslde.
Therelatlvely llmlted volumeof rlver andalr transport.
| .2.2 In 1990, road transport contlnuesto play a maJor.role In the movementof passengersand goods. Nlnety-twopercent of trade ls conductedby road by 4.1 mlI I lon travelI ers/km/day, wlth approxlmately1.9 mllllon tons/km/dayof goods. Roadtransport ls and remalns the meansof transport mostfrequently utlllzed for domestlctrade In Nlger.
rall ,l Stmtlarly,the transportsystem In Benlneseterrltory relayed by l{lger land transport facllltles, contlnuesto carry 551 of ttre 2250 tons/day of goodsgolng throughthe Cotonou(Benln) port and whlchrepresent the maJorpart of t{lger'sexternal trade
1.2.3 Theperformances of other forms of transport havegreatly regressed Slncê the appralsalof the proJect. Concernlngalr transport, for example, the numberof alrcraft ncvementshas fallen from 4700In 1983to 3000In 1988 at the lllameyalrport. Thenatlonal alrllne, Alr 1{lger,yhlch operatedthe greât€r part of the Internal alr trafflc, ras llquldatedIn 1987durlng the restructurlngof the para-publlcsector. t.2.4 The Investmentsprogranmed slnceappralsal In the transportsector have In general been basedon the 1977 Natlonal TransportPlan and the I 979-l983 Flve-YearDevelopment Plan. Thebroad obJectlves of theseïere:
openlngup the country and lts reglons; lmprovlngthe quallty of servlcesand securlty; decreaslngtransport costs; fosterlng the developmentof prlorlty sectors of the economy.
1.2.5 In 1987, a new Natlonal Transport Plan uas drawn up by the Government.The plan tlas based on the results of the 1984-1985Interlm developmentconsolldatlonplan and, 1n llne wlth the successlvestructural adJustmentprogrammes,the prlnclpal obJectivesltere concelvedln pursuanceof
tl
8S0/0299t{ 4 measuresadopted under the 1977Natlonal TransportPlan, glvlng prlorlty to rural developmentsupport operatlons and safeguardlngattalnments through lntenslfled road malntenance.
1.2.6 The state of l{lger road networkhas generallylmproved over the years:
Bltumenlzed road sectlons representlng33.81 of the road networkIn 1983(3067 km out of a total of 9065Km) spread to 351In 1989;
Perlodlcal malntenance works vlere carrled out over .|900 approxlmately KM or 20'1"of the network, and further works are underwayor belng preparedwlth the asslstanceof donorslncludlng the Bankand the l'lorld Bank.
These I nvestmentstotal over 95% of publI c expendlture I n the transport sector
t.3 TheProlect: Identlflcatlon. Preparatlonand Appralsal
I .3.1 Generallyspeaklng, the proJectconstantly evolved In responseto Nlger,s generaleconomlc sltuatlon and lts moreor less substantlalexternal resourcemoblllzatlon capaclty. The proJect, whlchwas conslderedprofltable at the tlme of ldenttflcatlon rras seen as much less so at the tlme of preparatlonand appralsal.
(l ) Identlflcatlon
| .3.2 }{fger's economlcsltuatlon at the tlme of ldentlflcatlonof the proJetïas partlcularlyconduclve to Investment,ln vlewof (a) an appreclable lncreaseIn the country'sproductlon of uranlumIn responseto the sustalned substanilal rrorld demandfor thls resourceand (b) acceleratedexpanslon of itrOrural sectoras a result of favourablecllmatlc condltlons. TheZlnder- AgadezRoad constltutes Nlger' s part of the Algl ers-Lagos Trans-Saharan Hlghwayfor whlchbltumen surfaclng was found to be necessaryfrom 1962. The ln countrlesconcerned by thls llnk, l.e, Algerla,Nlger and Ntgerla formed, 1976, the Trans-SaharanRoad Llnk Commlttee.The technlcal and economlc studles conductedfn l974 ylth UNDPasslstance, afflrmed the economlc
BSO/0299M 5-
profltablllty of the Zlnder-AgadezRoad,6m vlde vfth an 8.5 metre rlde platformand to be comlsslonedIn 1984. Theconstructlon cost ïas estlnated ât CFAF60 mllllon per kllometre. Towardsthe endof the 1970s,at the tlme of establlsmentof the 1979-1983Flve-Year Development Plan, the Zlnder-Agadez proJectwas ldentlfled as an Internal road to openup the countryand provlde ihe virlous reglonsexternal access and thus as a profltableprlorlty proJect.
(ll) Pregaratlon ,r
1.3.3 Àt the tlme of preparatlonof the proJectIn the early 1980s,the macro-economlcproJectlons trere optlmlstlc and announcedsustalned long term grorth of the t{lgereconomy. Even though Indebtedness has trlpled anddesplte the substantlaldeflclt In l{lger's budgetand externalcurrent account,the Investmenthas greatly appreclated,attalnlng nearly 28trof GDPIn 1980. The detalledfeaslblllty andtechnlcal studles of the Zlnder-Agadezroad conducted over the perlod rlth UIIDPflnanclng and completedIn 1982shored an Internal rate of return of 18trfor the road. bltumenlzed,7 metreswlde ulth a l0 metre rlde platform and to be corunlsslonedIn 1985. The constructloncost uas estlmatedat CFAF62 mllllon per kllometre.
1.3.4 0n the basls of these studles, the Nlger Government,wlth the supportof the Islamlc DevelopmentFund, convened, In August1983, a meetlng of donorsto vhlch ADFuas Invlted. The donorsrepresented at the meettng recognlzedthe cost-effectlvenessof the Zlnder-Agadezroad as rell as lts relevanceto the sub-reglonand expressed thelr Interest In andpledged thelr flnanclal supportto the proJect. TheproJected road would be bltumenlzedand 7 metresnlde wlth a l0 netre tllde platform. However,slnce the ftnanclng pronlsedor approvedwould not coverbltumenlzatlon of the total lengthof the road (447kms) at the estlmatedcost (CFAF70 mllllon per km), the road was dlvlded Into two lots of approxlmatelyequal length called the SouthLot and ilorth Lot; lt wasdeclded to ftrst lmprovethe SouthLot andrequlre the f{lger Government,rlth the supportof an ad-hocconmrlttee (ABEDA" IDB, irans-saharan Road GoordlnatlonConnlttee) to flnd the resources neededto complete bltumenlzatlonof the entlre Ztnder-Agadezroad
BS0/02ggtl 6-
(ltt) APPralsal
I .3.5 At the 6me of appraisal In September1983, Nlger's econom!c sltuatlon had becomealarmlng: the GDPhad stagnatedln 1980and l98l then decllned In lgg2 and lgg3. The markeddrop ln the world demandfor uranlum ted to a ZZ1"decrease In f{lger's productlonbetween l98l and I983; drought prevalledIn 1982,brlnglng about stagnatlon 1n the rural sector. Despltethe the t{lger Government'sneed to reducecapttal expendlturemalnly concernlng lnfrastructure, the Zlnder-Agadezroad remafneda top prlorlty' The Bank appralsaldld not departfrom thts prlortty and malntalnedthe proJectas proposedby the donors'meetlng. The proJect Involvedbltumen surfaclng of the South lot. The Bankhowever consldered that the North lot shouldbe regularly malntal ned; to I eave t t untarred would be to Jeopardlze the proJect. 0n tts appralsalof the Zlnder-Agadezroad as entlrely bltumenlzed fof cotnmlsslonlngln 1987,ADF arrlved at an economlcrate of return of 13Ë' The rate of return of the SouthLot of the proJectwas 14tr' In both cases' constructloncost was estlmated at CFAF70 mllllon per kllometre.
(lv) Obiectlvesand Componehts
the 1.3.6 Eventhough the proJet ïas scaled dorrnto the South Lot of at Zlnder-Agadezroad, the obJectlves remalnedthe same as stated provldlnga more ldentlftcatlonand appralsal,l.e (l) openlngup t{lgerand (ll) to dlrect and permanentllnk betyeenZlnder and Agadez and contrlbutlng The'proJeet upgradlngthe Algler:s-Lagossectlon of the Trans-saharanHlghray. starrtlng from componentsInvolved constructlon of the tarred 215 km road Itnder andconsultants, servlces for workslnspectlon and control.
BS0/0299t1 7-
2. II.IPLEI{ENTATION0F ïHE PROJECT
2.1 ChangesIn the Project
2.1.1 The ADBloan wasnegotlated In November1983 and approvedthe same month. At the beglnnl ng of I 984, I n the face of mountlng economlc dlfflcultles the Governmentof Nlger embarkedupon an economlcand flnanclal rehablI I tatlon programmertt th the asslstance of the }'lorld Bank. Durlng preparatlon of the programme,the I atter I ndlcated I ts vl ew that the Zlnder-Agadezroad proJect should not be undertaken,glven that:
(a) generally speaklng, constructlon of l{lger's baslc road networkhad beencompleted and profltabtllty of any newroads tlas marglnal slnce they would serve the muchless densely populatedreglons wlth I lmlted economlcpotentlal;
(b) slnce the malntenancerequlrements of a natlonal road network are enormous and road sector I nvestment should favour malntenance,as the Nlger Governmentmlght flnd lt dlfflcult to rpbl I I se adequate external resources to fl nance the constructlonof the Zlnder-Agadezroad as well as malntenance of the baslc road network;
(c) The cost of executlon of the Zlnder-Agadezroad, to whlch shouldbe addedthe nialntenancecost of the exlstlng network, wouldhave a great lmpacton Nlger's debt servlclng ratlo at a tlme when Governmentefforts uere geared tonards the rehabllltatlonof publlc flnances.
2,1.2 Î{otwlthstandlngthe l{orld Bank'srecommendatlons to the Government of lllger to the effect that tt shouldnot undertakethe constructlonof the Ztnder-Agadezroad, Nlgerand the proJectco-flnanclers dld not abandonthelr comltmentsand SouthLot worksstarted up as follows: March1985 for Lot lA flnancedby EDF,February 1985 for Lot lB flnancedby ADBand January 1985 for Lot lC ftnancedby the ArabFunds, In accordancewlth the featuresdetermlned on appralsal .
!: ;. t Bsolozg9f,l 8-
2.1.3 However,glven the Norld Bank's recommendatlonsand In vlew of the scanty trafflc recordedon the Zlnder-Agadezroad, an economlcupdate study of the Zlnder-AgadezproJect and the South Lot ttas undertakenIn 1985 by the Nlger Government.The updateshowed that the 1982traffic proJectlonof study was over-optlmlstlc: Real traffic In 1985was 50?.less than proJected. The economlcrate of return of the bltumenizedZlnder-Agadez road, wlth a lOmwlde platform, lf commlsslonedIn l99l wasestlmated at (1) 11.47"under the more optlmlstf c assumptlonsconcernl ng Nlger' s medium-term economl c revl val and (ll) 7.3trunder more conservatlve assumptlons
2.1.4 The Governmentof Nlger and the proJect Investors tncludlng the llorld Bankmet In November1985 to examlnethe results of the updatedeconomlc study. Theactual outcomeof tenderlngIn respectof Lots lA, lB and lC of the SouthLot Indlcatesthe ltke'llhoodof substantlalbalances of the proJect lnvestors' loans. As a result, at the end of the meetlng,the donors(a) malntalnedthelr supportof the executlonof the Zlnder-Agadezroad, (b) agreedIn prlnclple to allocatethe expectedloan balancesto bltumenlzatlon of the t{orth Lot (c) agreedto supportNlger's effort to lmplernentthe road malntenanceprogramme trhlch rras under preparatlon wlth l{orld Bankasslstance and (d) advlsedthat dlalogueshould be pursuedbetween the llorld Bankand llfger to reach a compromlseon the Zlnder-Agadezroad proJect to makelt posslbteto fully lmplementthe StructuralAdJustment Programme belng prepared.
$ 2.r.5 The negotlatl ons betweenthe l'lorld Bank and the Nlger Government concernlng the Structural AdJustmentProgramme resulted ln the l'lorld Bank âEreetngto the bltumenlzatfonof the entlre Zlnder-Agadezroad, provldedthat (a) for the North Lot, the wtdth of the road wouldbe reducedto 6mtrlth an 8m platform, (b) the total allocatlon for constructlonrrould be llmlted to CFAF 12 bllllon over the perlod 1985-1988,l.ê, 6 bllllon for 1985/86,4 bllllon for 1986187and 2 btlllon for 1987188.
2.1.6 At the beglnnlngof 1988, the proJect Investors met and noted that the balances of the I nl tt al loans madet t posst bl e to b1tumenl ze nearly 87.l'1" of the total length of the Zlnder-Agadezroad. For the executlon of the remafnlng12.g1", l.e. 55km,a flnancing request uas submlttedto the Bank, whlch conducteda re-appralsalof the entire bltumenlzedZlnder-Agadez road and of the 55kmstretch, wlth a vlew to grantlng an addltlonal loan to the
BS0/0299M -9
Governmentof Nlger. The economlcappralsal of the Zlnder-Agadezroad wlth the NorthLot partly bltumenlzed,6metres wlde wlth an I metreplatform, lndlcateda rate of returnof 11.43%for commlsslonlngln 1991. Thecost of constructlonper kllometreof the 55kmsectlon vras estlnated at CFAF56.5 mlllton.
2.1.7 Fromthe above, lt can be seen that the Zlnder-ÂgadezproJect, though tnlttally conslderedprofltable subsequentlybecame a subJect of controversy, malnly because of Nlger's economlc sltuatlon and the under-estlmatlonof costs. The proJect as I nl tl al ly I dentlfl ed underwent severalchanges. Its rate of return decllnedas moreaccurate data concernlng trafflc surfaced,as seenln table 3 whlchfollows:
*o.urrono-rr, *^fft'rr** o, ,r, ,*orr., FROMTHE TIIIE OF IDENTIFICATION
t I I t tI. It1974 I 1982 I 1983 ADF I l98s I 1988 ADF 1 IIConsultant I Consultant I I Consultant 1l l-1 I I l1 I I 1 JCharacteristicsI Zlnder-Agadez I Zl nder-Agadez l Bltumenlsed 7n I Bitumenlsed lof the proJect t road, bitumen l road, bitumen l wide road with J road; l0m t1surfaced6m wide I surfaced, 7mwide l l0m platform I platform, Tm IIwlth an 8.5 n t with 10.80m I 2l5kmlong I wide for a -do tlplatforn: to be I p'latfonn; com- I J length of 215 l1cornnissloned I missionedin I I Kn and 6rnv'lde IIin 1984 T r98s. 1 I for a length 1t I t I zlzKrn;to be II I I I conrnissioned lt ll I 1 I in l99l tl l-:----l-æ-l I t--1 1 Cost per Kn T 60 nil'llon CFA I 62 mil'l i on CFA l 70 million CFA I 47.5mil. CFA I 56.5 milllon CFA l I ) I l I ------l I I 1 tl I Econonlc I Not avallable 18.2/. I t3l 7.32 accordingI ll.43Z t Rate of l l to the more l t Return t l conservative I t T 1 assumpti ons J t t l and 11.4% t I l I accordingto l 1 I l l moreoptimis- J I t I 1 assumptions l 1 I l l I t Econonic 1 Contstrained J Deteriorati ng Recovering I Stabilizing I t s i tuati on I l I I
This table shows in particu'lar that the project rate of return is dwindling whereasits features have been scaled downand the cosst reduced,indicating linited benefits.
BS0/0299M t0
2.2 LoanEffectlveness
2.2.1 The ADFloan for the South Lot of the proJect cameInto force one year after i ts approval. Thls perlod was requlred to ensure slmultaneous entry Into effect of the loansof other financiers andappears reasonable.
2.3 Procurementof Goodsand Servlces
2.3.1 TheSouth Lot workswere dlvlded lnto three parts (Lot lA for tDF, Lot lB for ADF,Lot lC for the Arab Funds)ln vlewof the flnanclers dlfferlng procedures rel att ng to procurementof goods and servlces and country eltgtblllty for tender lnvltatlon. Durlngthe loan negotlatlons,the Borrower rlghtly consideredthls dtvlslon of the workslnto lots for tenderingpurposes less effectlve than the slngle lot systemas a meansof obtalnlngeconomlcally advantageousoffers from contractors. The parttclpants ln the negottatlons proposed the fol lorlng Intermedlate solutlon whtch tt ttas not, however, posslble to lmplementIn vlew of admlnlstratlvedlfflcultles: uslng the pre-guallflcatlon procedureas a meansof detectlng posslble Incompatlblllty and Invltlng tenders for the respectlve lots at the sametlme to enable contractorsto submltblds for one, tuo or all three lots at a tlme.
2,3.2 The dlvlslon of the works lnto the 3 lots wlth separatetenderlng for eachmade lt posslbleto obtaln prlces by kllometreof road whlchdlffered from one lot to another(Annex 2r, averaglngapproxlmately CFAF 47.5 mllllon but In all cases lower than the appralsal cost estlmatewhlch tras CFAF70 mllllon. For the part flnancedby ADF,(47km) the dlvlsion lnto lots afforded the advantageof sufftclently short executlonperTods rrhtch made tt posslble to slgn contractstrlth entrepreneursfor a fixed and non-revlsableprlce and further contaln the workscosts.
2.3.3 Conslderlngthe contractors'blds recelvedfor Lots lA and Lot lB flnancedby EDFand the ADF,substantlal loan balancesappeared probable; for ADF, the loan balancelras estlmatedat FUA3.5 mtI I lon or 35'1"of the loan. Thebalances of all the co-flnanclers'loans were such that, ln the vlewof a technlcalbld analysiscommltte lncluding representatlves of ADF,tDF and the Nlger Government,lt was "out of the questionto envlsagemodtficatlon of the contract by slmply I ntroducing addttional clauses" for executlon of neï "more sectlons of the North Lot; rather tenders should be Invited half-way
BS0/0299M - ll
throughworks executlon". For the lot flnancedby ADF,thls proposalof the technlcalcommlttee trlll not be applledat the approprlatetlne, slnce the samecontractor engagedhas provldedthe goodsand servlces requlred for tnodlflcatlonson the basis of addlttonalclauses to the Inltlal contract,a procedureconsldered more rapld. Thts addltlonal clause procedure,though expedltlousfrom the admlnlstratlvestandpolnt and Justlfled whereoverall modlflcatlonof the uorksdoes not exceedl0 to l5?,of the cost (the generally acceptedamount for contfngencles)does not appearto be the mostefftclent for obtalnlngoptlmum works cost; for example,for the lot flnancedby ADF, the kflometreprfce attalnedCFAF 71.5 mllllon for addltfonalclause No. Z, agalnst47 mllllon for the Inttlal contract. For the addltlonal75 kllometre lot flnanced by the Arab Funds,efforts to arrange an addftlonal clause resulted I n a prl ce proposalof CFAF67 mlI 1lon per kl lometreand uere abandonedfn favour of tenderlngwhlch made tt possfbleto obtaln, for the samesectlon, the prlce of 50.5 mlI I lon per kl lometre, rhlch represents overall savfngsof aboutCFAF 915 mllllon. In the Bank'scase, the proposat to use the loan balanceand appendan additlonal clause to the Inlttal contract for the procurementof ner goodsand servfces yas approvedby the l,lanagement..
2.4 Prolect ImplementatlonSchedule
: 2.4.1 As Indlcated In paragraph2.1 and In table 3 above,the proJected date for comlsslonlng of the tarred Ztnder-Agadez road changedalong rlth the ,! proJect formulatlon.. The study conductedby the consultant ln l9B2 flxed the comtlsslonlngdate In 1985, whereasthe ADFappralsal report refers to T9g7 and the updated1985 study envlsagedconmlsslonlng In l99l. In reallty, the connlsslonlngof the entlre, bltumenlzedZinder-Agadez road ls phasedfrom 1986to 1992,rlth lll of tts total length completedIn 1987, tl1eln t9B7and 411 In 1988. The entlre SouthLot ras commlssionedln 1988. It ls expected that the remalnlng3lI' wlll be completedin 1991, ln accordancewlth the contracts recently slgnedwlth the contractôrs, so that the entlre road ean be comlssloned In 1992. Delayshave malnly been due to deslgn and"l'inanclng problems(para. 1.3) and, to a lesser extent, to problemsrelatlng to the executlonof the South Lot; the extent and causesof lags In the latter,s executlonare detalledIn the PCR,paragraphs. 3.3.4 to 3.3.8.
BS0/029gtrf 12
2.5 lùcrksCost and Flnanc I ng
2.5.I 0n appralsal, the cost of the rorks of the South lot tlas estfmated at approxlmatelyCFAF 70 mllllon per kllometre. Thesecosts, basedon the estfrnatesprepared by the consultant In 1982 turned out to be largely over-estlmated.The real cost per kllometreaveraged CFAF 47.5 mlllton per kflometre(Annex 2) or 671of the t982estlmated prlces. Thedlfferenccs were due to the fact that (l) competltlonl,as glven full scopeat the tlme of tender Invltatlon, (ll) the physlcal contlngenclesand prlce escalatlon allowanceswere hlgh (lll) the 1982prlces rrerebased on contractsawarded undereconomlc condltlons favourlng contractors. Thereal cost of Lot lB vas 56.71of the estlmatedcost.
2.5.2 Qwlngto the Inttlal over-estlmatlonof costs, the proJecthad to be dlvlded Into the North and South Lots In accordancetrlth the flnanclal resourcesavatlable. Htth the savlngsmade on lmplementatlon,the tnltlal loans servedto cover the flnanclng of nearly 87.1Lof the total length of the Zlnder-Agadezroad. It shouldhorever be noted that at the tlme of appralsal' the resourcesmoblllzed anountedto FUA55.74 mllllon and thus exceededthe South Lot costs -estlmatedat FUA55.68 mllllon- by the equlvalentof FUA1.06 mlI I lon.
2.5.3 Aslde from the EDFgrant, the loans obtalned for the flnanclng of - the proJect wereon favourableterms (low Interest rate between0.75tr and 6f lZ to 40'year repaymentperlod wlth a grace perlod of 4 to l0 years). The table ln annexI sumsup the flnanclng of the proJect. Borrowlngsrepresent 3,71 of the overall publlc debt and 29Éof the publlc debt of the road sector. Desplte thelr concesslonalterms, these loans affected the publlc debt ratlo rhlch ras lorr between1985 and 1989. Debt servlclng In respect of loans contracted uas expectedto reach approxtmatelyCFAF 800 mllllon ln 1990' the flrst year of repaymentof the prlnclpal of certaln loans. Debt servlclng tn connecilon wtth the constructlon of the Zlnder-Agadezroad uas expectedto represent0.41 of the total public debt In 1985and 2.81 In 1989.
BS0/02991.'l - 13
3. RESULTSOF ÎHE PROJECT
under ADB 3. t The total length of the road sectlons constructed tnittal flnanclng ls 79.5 kltometres l.e. 32.5 km or 69.Itr beyondthe wlth proJectlons. out of these79.5 kllometresof road,47 are 7 metreswlde of road a l0 metre platfrom as envlsagedon appralsal and the remalnlng32'5 geometrlc ls 6 metres nlde wlth a g.5 metre wlde platform. The mlnlmum proJectedat the features of the secilons(annex l) are In keeplngwtth those ilme of appralsaland allow for a baslc speedof 100km/h.
3.2 Judglngfrom the results of trlals conducteddurtng works executlon and In relailon to the standardsIndlcated under the technlcalspeclflcatlons (CBRI ndex, compactness.. . ) the mechanlcal characterlstl cs of the roadway largely sufflce to bearreal trafflc (trafflc comprlslngunder 300 vehlcles of al I categorles per day); for such traffl c the roadway I s even over-dlmenstoned.It rtould seemthat, on lnspectlonof the roadwayafter three npnthsof use, lt wasdeemed necessary that the t'lTPcarry out roughness anddeflectton msasures as requestedby the Bankprlor to the audlt mlsslon; these meôsureshad not been effected as at the tlme of preparatlonof the present report but should be executedI n due course by the competentl'lTP servlces.
3.3 An InsPectlonof the sectlons completedand flnanced by the Bank howevershowed that (a) sone longltÛdlnal cracks had started appearlngIn the Intake certaln Parts of Lot 29 and that there were transversal cracks at or outlets of dralnagefacllttles whlch uere moreoverclogged by sand to varylngdegrees.
(f) 3.4 The Zlnder-Agadez road, oncett has beentarred In l99l' rlll enable users to avold the detour over flrore than 840 kl lometres through ,| permanent Tahona-Blrnl 1{'konland ( I ) provlde the Tanoutlandlocked area a Itnk fllth etnderor Asadez.
BS0/0299M - 14
3.5 The Zlnder-Agadezroad constltutes one of the llnklng sectlons of the Alglers-Lagosportion of the Trans-SaharanHtghuay. 0n account of the varlous loans granted by co-flnanciers and the most recent loan approvedby the Bankln October1988 for the lmprovementof the remalnlng55 kllometresor 12.fl, the Zlnder-Agadezroad wlll be entlrely tarred and 785kllometres of lt or 79.51 of the Nlger sectlon of the trans-Saharanltnk flntshed off. The entlre Nlgerlan part ls tarred (1299 km); for the Algerlan sectlon, there remaln 250 kllometres of earth road beglnnlng from the Nlger border. The openlngup of Nlger to the Alglers ports tvlll only be partlally accompllshed as long as the tracks exist on elther slde of the Algerla-Nlgerborder.
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4. IiISTITUTIONALPERFORMATICE
4.1 The proJectnelther provldesfor overall Instltutlonal developnnnt of the Î-flnlstry of Publlc l.lorks(l'lTP) nor that of lts Publlc l{orks Department (DTP)whlch ls the executlngagency of thts parttcularproJect. Thls aspect has been taken Into conslderatlonunder other road sector proJects In conJunctlonvlth the Horld Bank. TheseproJects have provlded, arrong other thlngs, for the establlshmentof a RoadsManagement Bureau (BGR) rrlthln the DTPfor monltorlngand ausculatlonof the entlre l{lger road networkIn order to programeperlqdlc malntenance.The BGR vas set up In 1985and presently has the technlcalmeans requlred to executethe tasks asslgnedto lt, l.e Inspectlonof roadsand generalmonltorlng and malntenanceprogrammlng, road trafflc countsand axel relghlng. TheBGR ls, however,not yet In a posltlon to Ind.lcatethe characterlstlcsof axel loadsof vehlclesuslng the roadsof Nlger. The 1988,BGR tras attachedto the Studfesand ProgrammlngDepartment newlyestabllshed wlthln the l'lTP,and thts appearsto be a wlsemove.
4.2 As fs the case of DTP, no lnstltutlonal lmprovementhas been envlsagedfor the DTT(Land Transport Department) whlch should In prlnclple be responslblefor formulatlonof road transport orlentatlons. In t990, thls Departmentdoes not appearto have had the meansrequlred to efflclently assumelts role; lt partlclpatedvery llttle In the studyof the tlatlonal TransportPlan conductedIn 1987and has extremelyllmfted road transport statl stl cs, even concernlng the maJoraxes of the l'llger road netrork. In partlcullf, no data concernlngtrade betweenZlnder and Gadezls avallab!e. Hoveverthe DTTproposes to, In the lmmedfatefuture, (f) establlshàn economlcobservatory of transportsyStem and (lt) reorganlzegoods transport o In Nlger.
4.3 As at the tlmeof the audlt, MTPwas stlll generallylmplementlng a good part of the road transport polfcy orlentatlons and has mafntalned conslderableInfluence vlth regard to the latter's formulatlon. Certaln matters remaln pendlng!n vlew of the lack of coordlnatlonbetreen the servlcesof l'lTPand thoseof the Mfnlstry of Transportand Tourlsmto uhleh the DTTls attached. Thts ls the casewith the matterof the welgh-bridges rhlch wasralsed at the tlmeof appralsaland In respectof whlchno solutlons have been I nltl ated, pàrtly because of the shortcomlngs of
BS0/0299M l6
the adntntstrativeprovlslon concernlng asslgnment of responslbllltlesIn the formulatlonand tmplementatlon of declslonsrelatlng to roadtransport
4.4 Tralnlng acttvltles In favour of the staff employedln the road sub-sectorwere not Included In an ADFcomponent. However, they have always beenpronnted under proJects flnanced by other Investors, especlally the l.lorld Bank Such proJects have revealed that, though tralnlng prograflmeshave largely fallen behlndschedule and have not alvays attalned thelr obJectlves thelr cumulatlveeffect has beenposltlve. Publlc worksprogrames have for a long tlme been set back for lack of sultable candldates,.glven the shortcomlngsof technlcal educatlonand vocatlonaltralnlng establlshmentsIn tltger A publtc workstralnlng centre has beenset up and nov allows Nlger organlzeapproprlate tralnlng programmes.
BS0/02991.1 t7
5. ECONOMICPERFORMANCE
5.1 Developmentof the Area of Impact of the ProJeg[
(l ) Populatlon
5.t.I The Zfnder-Agadezroad proJect concernsfour departments((Zlnder, Agadez,llaradl and Dlffa) vhose populatlon represents 50É of the total Inhabltantsof the countryat the tlme of appralsalof the proJect. The populatfon stood at approxlmately2,240,000 Inhabltants In 1977 and rlas supposedto Increaseat an averagerate of 2.9%per year. Thepopulatlon of the area of lmpactof the proJectwas approxlmately 3 195000 Inhabltantsor 44trof the total ln 1988. It ls expectedto attaln 3,500,000tnhabltants In 1991, the scheduleddate of completlonof the proJect, on the basls of the annualgrorth rate of 3.3tr observeddurlng the last censusfn 1988. Thfs populatlonremalns concentrated In the central southpart of Zlnder
(fl) Evolutlonof the aorlcultural- mlnlno and lnduçtrlal cactorc
5.I .2 The assulttptlonsconcernl ng the developmentof the varfous sectors of actlvlty of the area of the proJectarea of lmpactwere over-optlmlstlc. In agrlculture, for example,there wasexpected to be a substantlalIncrease, fn 1987and 1988, fn productlonof the 4 mafn crops of the proJect area mlllet, sorghum,nlebe and groundnuts; ylelds uereexpected to Increaseat an averagerate of 31 per year for the perlod 1983to 1989,as a result of the varlous prograrmes. In reallty, mlllet, nlebe and groundnutproductlon slumpedby 1Otr,l.11 and 181 per year respectlvely. Sorghumproductlon stagnatedwlthln the sameperlod. Theseresults ùreredue (a) to flmlted ralnfall (a decreaseby over 60%as comparedto the 1970s);(b) crop Invaslon by parasltes(c) lmpoverlshmentof the landowlng to the advanceof the desert andover exploltatlon of arableland.
5.1.3 In the mlnlngsub-sector, an approxlmately81 IncreaseIn the productlon of uranlum, one of the mafnstays of the country's economyI n generaland the proJectarea In partlcular, rrasenvlsloned. The fall of uranlumprlces from the beglnnlngof the 1980sbrought productlon down to about3000 tons per year wlth an attendantdecllne In economlcactlvltles In the proJectarea.
BS0/0299M l8
5.r.4 It should howeverbe noted that certaln lndustrlal' proJects envlsagedand mentlonedln the appralsal report have In fact beenexecuted: the Agadezbakery and refrlgerated slaughter house, the tomatoeprocesslng unlt, the Maradl breweryand factory, the cattle feed factory, the slaughter houseand mlllet processlngfactory In Zlnder. Certaln"newly establlshed unlts ceasedproductlon owlng to problemsln obtalnlng Inputs.
(lll) NewProJects
5.I .5 0n the other hand, developmentproJects not mentfonedIn the appralsalreport havebeen undertaken In the lnmedlatearea of lmpactof the proJectand parttcularly1n the Zlnderand Agadez Departments. Ïhese are as fol lows:
ZlnderDepartment
(a) ProJect for Integratedrural developmentIn 5 provlnces' IncludlngTanout whlch ls conslderedas l{lger's mlllet granary. Thls proJet beganIn 1987and ls expectedto be completedIn 1991.
(b) thè Damergourehabllltatlon proJect almed at attalnlngfood self-sufflclency. Thls proJect Has started In 1985and ls practlcal ly completed.
AgadezDepartment
(c) AIR Inteqrated DevelopmentProJect for lmprovementof plant productlonand tralnlng of the populatlon In agrlcultural, cooperatlve,pastoral and artlsanal actlvltles. It started In 1985and uas comPletedtn 1989
(d)
Thls proJet wasalmed at Intenslfylngcooperatlveefforts and dlverstfy the agrlcultural actlvltles of the populatlonof the proJectarea; lt beganln 1984and shouldbe comPletedIn 1992.
BS0/0299M l9
(e) To these two maJor proJects can be added somel0 smalI proJects whosemal n obJectlve I s to boost agrlcul tural productlon. Theyconcern, among other thlngs: mlcro-farmfng, support to. farmers' self-promotl on efforts , support for developmentof food cooperatlves.
5.1.6 Thesevarlous proJects are seenas off-shootsof the Zlnder-Agadez i road proJect. Theyshould have started havlnga slgnlflcant lmpacton the proJectarea howeverenvlronmental condltlons such as droughtand Inadeguate feederroads have prevented them from attalnlng the expectedobJectlves. ,i
5.2 Trafflc Analvsls 1983-1990
5.2.1 Vehlclecounts for the Zlnder-Agadezroad rere conductedln 1981. The data collected servedas a basls for the appralsalof the proJect In 1983. Othercounts ttere carrled out In 1985,maklng lt posslbleto updatethe economlcstudy. Slnce1985, counts are conductedannually.
(l) Real ilormalTrafflc
a) Comparlsonylth proJectlonsat the tlme of appralsal
5.2.2 From1985 to 1990, real normaltrafflc averaged60 vehlcles/dayon ,.n the Zlnder-Pk25sectlon, 35 vehlcles/dayon the Tanout Pkz5 sectlon, 28 vehlcles/ day on the Tanout-Pk400sectlon and 32 vehlcles/dayon the Agadez Pk400 sectlon. Real normal trafflc representedapproxlmately 23L of the .', normaltraff|cest|mateatthetlmeofBankappra|saloftheproJect,ôS Indlcatedln Table4 below:(the detalls are glvenIn annex3A)
TableN" 4 Comparlsonof Real NormalTrafflc/llormal Trafflc Estlmatedon Appralsal I 985 I 987 I 988 I 989 I 990 RealTrafflc/ProJected Trafflc 0. l9 0.27 0.21 0.25 0.23
BS0/02991i1 .t: . +:lD f- _20
Thts counter-performancecan be attrlbuted to over-estlmatlon of trafflc Increase In the l98l-1985 perlod, the economlc dlfflcultles encounteredby Nlger startlng from 1981, a temporaryclosure of the border wlth Nlgerla from 1984 to 1985 and the deterloratlon of the unconstructed sectlons of the Zlnder-Agadezroad.
b) Çomparlsonwlth normaltrafflc estlmates of the 1985updated study
5.2.3 Theassumptlons retalned by the consultantfor forecastlngnormal trafflc at the tlme of the 1985study update vrere conservatlve and the results better reflectedreallty:
Theseassumptlons ïere as follows:
evolutlonof macro-economlcaggregate as proJectedunder the developmentplans. closureup to l99l of the Nlgerlaborder. attenuateddrought. perslstenttrafflc dlverslon by the alternate Zlnder-Agadez road golngthrough Tahoua.
The table belor sumsup the dlfference In real normaltrafflc and normâltrafflc as estlmateddurlng the 1985update, for the perlod 1985-1990. Thedetalls are provldedIn annex3A:
TableN" 5 Comparlsonof Real l{ormalTrafflc/Esllmated ilormalTrafflc under the I 985 Update 1985 I 986 I 987 I 988 1989 I 990
RealTrafflc/ProJectedTrafflc I 1.5 l.17 1.47 1.39 l'34
Thls posltlve dlfference betweenreal normaltrafflc and proJected normal trafflc accordlng to the 1985 updatedstudy can be ascrlbed to the economlcrevlval observedstartlng from 1985,the reopenlngof the borderwlth Nlgerla In 1986and the commlsslonlngof sectlonslA and lB of the Southlot of the proJect In 198611987.
BSO/0299M /l 2l
( | | ) GeneratedTraffl c and Dlverted Traffl c
5.2.4 The entlre road was supposedto be comlssloned ln 1987. The appralsal report provlded for generatedtrafflc In the range of 50il of the estlmated normal trafflc flott. Slnce the normaltrafflc estlmateïas hlgh, the generatedtrafflc estlmate tras also high. 0bservatlon revealed real generatedtrafflc averaglng25I of the estlmate, as shownIn table 6 belotr: (the detalls are ln annexes38 and3C).
TableN" 6 Comoarlson of Real GeneratedTraffl c wlth GeneratedTrafflc as Estlmatedon Apnralsal
I 985 I 986 I 987 I 988 1989 t990 Real InducedTraffl c/ ProJectedInduced Trafflc 0.r0 0.35 0.28 0.28
The updated 1985 study dld not envlsagegenerated trafflc durlng the 1985-1990perlod.
5.2.5 Durl ng the same perlod, real dlverted trafflc ras practlcally Inextstent. Thls can be explalnedby the fact that the Zlnder-Agadezroad had not beenentlrely constructedand the unTmprovedportlons dld not requlre malntenance.
s.2.6 Generafly speakfng, the traffl c estlmates (normal traffl c, generated trafflc, dl verted traffl c) gl ven at appralsal I n I 983 rere over-optlmlstlc. Onthe other handthe consultant'sestlmate contalned In the 1985update dld not refl ect realI ty etther.
5.3 EconomlcRe-evaluatlon
(f) Trafflc Forecast
5.3.I The trafflc proJectlon for the economlcre-evaluatlon takes account of the trend of macro-economlcaggregates observed for the perlod of adJustmentof Nlger's economybetween 1983 and 1989, and of trafflc trends recorded throughout the road networkover the sameperlod. The trafflc used as a basls for the estlmatels the l99l trafflc forecast whlchls expectedto be at more or less the samelevel as that of 1990, sfnce the state of the
8S0/0299t1 -22
Zlnder-Agadezroad durlng the two perlods could be conslderedat face value as slmflar (76.str constructedand 23.5I under constructlon). The 1990trafflc data has beenobtalned from counts and orlgln-destlnatlon surveysconducted by the BGRln June 1990,at the requestof the Bank.
5.3.2 The Increaserate of'llght vehlclesshows elastlclty of betweenI and 0.5 as compared,on the one hand, to the growthrates of the populatlon and of per caplta Incomeand, on the other hand, to that of heavy vehlcles rhlch showselastlclty of I In relatlon to the GDPgrowth rate. The followlng rates have therefore been determlnedfor trafflc proJectlons (the trafflc levels resultlng from theseassumptlons are shownIn detall In annex5).
a) tlormalTrafflc l99l-2001Perlod
Increaserate of llght vehlcles:3.lZ Increaserate of heavyvehlcles: 3.str
For thls perlod and concernlngheavy vehlcles, lt ls consldered that the Increase In uranlumproductlon and trafflc comprlslngartlculated vehlcles transportlnghydrocarbons wlll be llmlted.
b) NormalTrafflc. 2001-2011Perlod
It ls supposedthat durlng thls perlod, the Structural AdJustment Programeundertakel I n the t 980swl I I have I ed to sustal ned grorth of the country's economyand that the GDP grorth rate wlI I have attalned approxlmately5tr. Thepopulatlon growth rate shouldbe 2.9Éwhlle per caplta InconeIncreases by 2L. Theseassumptlons lmply an Increaserate of Strfor heavyvehlcles and 3.9tr for llght vehlcles.
c) GeneratedTrafftc l99l-2011Perlod
For the entlre perlod, generatedtrafflc ls estlmatedat 20Ëof the normaltrafflc, for the heavyas well as the llght vehlcles. The 29trtras arrlvedat throughanalysls of trafflc dataon ltlnerarles comparableto that of the proJectand ln respectof whlchbltumen surfaclng had beencompleted andtrafflc countsconducted some tlme after commlsslonlng.
BSO/0299H tlr
d) DlvertedTrafflc durlnq the l99l-2011Perlod.
0n the baslsof orlgtn-destlnatlonsurveys, trafflc dlvertedby the Zlnder-Agadezroad golng through Tanout ls estlmatedas 25trof the trafflc on the alternate Zlnder-Agadezroad throughTahoua. Thls proportlondetermlned under the 1985updated study appearsreallstlc and has been retalned for future trafflc estlmates.
(ll) ProJectCosts and Beneflts
5.3.3 a) ïhe economlccosts of the proJect are madeup of the real costs of the proJect sectlons already completed(14-lB-lC-28 and 2A) expressed ln 1990value by applylng an averagerate of 6tr, as recorrnendedunder Nlger's varlous plans, and al so of the estlmated tax-free costs (vlthout prlce revlslon) of the remalnlng portlons <2C and 38) of the North Lot betveen Tanout and Agadez. The total economlccost of the proJect fs estlmated at CFAF2?.2 bllllon.
b) The expectedbenefl ts of the proJect are those representedby the dffference betyeenmalntenance costs and vehfcle operatlng costs rlth and rlthout the proJect. Thebeneflts.relatlng to the vehlcle operatlngcosts are based oR real trafflc for the 1985 to 1990 perlod, dlstfngulshlng betveen normal and generatedtrafflc, and on proJected trafflc for the l99l-2011 perlod, taklng accountof the three types of trafflc: normal, generatedand dlverted. The beneflts resultlng from dlverted trafflc have been estlmated assumlngan averagestretch of 840 km on the alternatlve road. Annex6 glves the proJect beneflts.
fiil) Re-calculatlonof the EconomlcRate of Return
5.3.4 a) On the basts of costs and beneflts deflned In para. 5.3.3 above, the economlcrate of return of the proJect ls put at 6.5tr. Thls rate applles to the case where the Governmentcorrectly effects routl ne and perlodlcal malntenanceof the road (case l); the detalls of calculatlon are provldedIn annex7.
BS0/02991,1 24
b) Sensltlvlty tests have been conductedconcernlng the follorlng: the road poorly malntalnedfollowlng commlsslonlng(case 2> and trafflc Increaserate mlnusone polnt (case3).
Case2
If the Governmentdoes not carry out proper routlne and perlodlc mafntenanceof the road as requlred once lt has been commlsslonedIn 1992, there wlll be a slgnlflcant Increaseln vehlcle operatloncosts whlchwould brlng downbeneflts by morethan 30X; thls assumptloncarrles a rate of return of 3.51, In other words,a decllne of 45Xas comparedto case l'
Case3 ,
In the event that the proJected trafflc Inerease rate for the perlod staryng from l99l turn out to be one polnt less than proJectlons,then the rate of return would be 5tr.
(c) Lastly, the proJectrate of return has beencalculated for the hypothetlcal sltuatlon where the cost estlmatedon appralsal(CFAF 70 mtlllon per kllometre)turns out to be the real cost. The rate of return of the proJect çould under suchclrcumstances be 0.5 tr (case4)'
s.3.5 Despltethe decreaseIn proJectcosts, the trafflc proJectlonsdo ch would ensure adequate cost- not Elve the optlmum traffl c I evel whl attalned lf normal effecttvenessof the proJect. Suchprofltablllty could be In 1990,and trafflc on each secilon of the road wastvlce as hlgh as observed per year' General lf sUchtrafflc Increasedat a averagemlnlmum rate of 3tr trafflc shouldrepresent at least 50trof normaltrafflc.
BS0/02991.l| -25
6. PERFORMANCESOF ÏHE VARIOTJSPARTICIPANÏS
fi) Performanceof the Consultants
6.1 Consultantsprovlded servlces In the varlousphases of the proJect: durlng ldentlflcatlon, (1974 pre-feaslblllty study) durlng preparatlon (feaslblllty anddetalled technfcal studles fn 1982,economlc study update fn 1985)and durlng lmplementatlon (works Inspectlon and supervlslon).
6.2 Slnce there are no MTP documentsaval lable concernlng the condltlons of executlonof contracts slgned wtth the consultants, lt ls not easy to evaluate the latter's performance.On the other hand, dlscusslons wlth the staff of the executlngagency lead to the lmpresslonthat consultants satl sfactorl ly provlded thelr servlces durlng the I dentlfl catlon and lmplementatlon stages.
6.3 Concernlngthe preparatlonphase, retrospectlve examlnatlon of the consultant' s study reports shouedthat the I atter ( | ) generally adopted opttmlstlc data and assumptlonsfor trafflc proJectlonsand to determlne macro-economlcprospects (1982 studles) and (l | ) lrere not sufflclently crltlcal of certaln admlnlstratlveassumptlons relatlng to natlonal or reglonal development(1985 studles). Concernlngthe proJect cost, the consultantshad basedthelr calculatlon on on-gofngor recently completed contractswhlch had beenararded at a tlme vhenwork ras easlly avallableon the publlc worksmarket, rhlch ras no longer the the case by the tlme thls proJeôtras prepared
(ll) Contractor'sPerformance ,' t.4 The rcrks on lots flnancedby the Bankïere executedby the same contractor; Judglngfrom the exchangesof vlewswlth the executfngagency and Indlcatlonscontalned In the completlonreports prepared by the consultants, the contractor's performanceuere rather satlsfactoryon the whole:the rate of efflclency obtalnedwlth the equlpmentutlllzed tas approxlmately651 to 757,of normalefflclency. Theexecutlon pace tras 3.02 km/monthcompared to the paceof 4 km/monthgeneral'ly observed In l{lger (Annex2). 0n the other hand,certaln technlcalcharacterlstlcs of the materlalsused were well above requlredmlnlma (compactness, CBR lndex). Thereïere practlcally no works
BS0/0299t1 _26 redoneand the works were provlslonally handed-overwlthout any signtflcant reservatlons. The | 112month delay wlth regard to contracts for lots lB and Z B respectlvelyuas due moreto problemsIn flndlng and drllllng water than to the contractors'organlzatlonal problems.
(ltl) Performaceof the ExecutlngAgency and the Borrower
6.5 0n the whole,the executlngagency's performance under the proJect rrassatlsfactory: the condltlonsfor loan effectlvenesswere fulfllled wlthln a reasonableperlod, the proceduresfor procurementof goodsand servlcesuere suttably applI ed and contractor's and consultant' s tenders Yrereproperly analyzed. ProJectprogress reports ùrere regularly submltted to the Bank.
6.6 The Borrower'sconmltment as regards the proJect appearsto have been strong; desplte the economlcproblems whtch arose at the tlme of the appralsaland lmplementatlonof the proJect,th.e Borrower was able to moblllze ln goodtlme lts ftnanclal counterpartfor lmplementatlonof the proJect.
(lv) The Performanceof the Bank
6.7 The Bankefflclently contrlbuted to the soundlmplementatlon of the proJect by expedltlng processlngof the documentssubmltted to lt for lts vlews and approval. The Bankattended all the donors'meetlngsand conducted tro mlsslonsfor technlcal supervlslonof worksdurlng the total 2 year perlod of worksexecutlon.
BS0/0299M -27
7. EFFECTSON THE ENVIRONI'IENT
7.1 Questlonsconcernfng the effect of the proJect on the envlronment rere ralsed at the tlme of appralsal; a numberof advantagescould derlve from the constructlonto bltumenstandard of the road, for example(l) ellmlnatlon of the dust ralsed from the earth road, (ll) constructlon of equlppedwater holes, used Inltlally to meetneeds at the workssltes and subsequentlyto be left at the dlsposalof the populatlons,(lll) the creatlon of seml-permanent pondsIn the areas vhere earth was taken for the road.
7.2 0n the whole,the proJecttlas beneflclal to the envlronment.The ellmlnatlonof dust ralsed as a result of clrculatlon constltuteda real beneflt. Slnce the boreholescould not be used Just as they uere, the Governmentlmproved them to meet the needsof the populatlonsIn the area. 1{lth Itallan governmentflnanclng, someof the boreholesrere (l) protected and coveredwlth steel work, (ll) equlppedrlth generatorsets, (lll) supplementedwlth vater torers or anlmaldrlnklng troughs. Thedepth of the boreholes, rhlch lrere 7 In number,range betreen 170 metres and over 400 metres. The flow can attaln 20 m3/hand ls adequateto supplythe current needsof the populatlonswhlch àverage 1500 Inhabltants per vlllage concerned.
7.3 Severalareas were dug out durlng the constructlonworks. ilost of themhave been covered by sandand havenot functlonedas seml-permanentponds as hoped.
BS0/029911 28
8. VIABILITYOT THE PROJECT
fi) DeterloratlveEffect of Trafflc
8.1 The spanof the proJectbeneflts could be reducedunder the effect of heavyvehlcles trafflc, whosevolume per trafflc samplevarles dependlngon the type of axel load. For example,In the caseof Nlger, a 2-axel truck wlth a total authorlzedwetght of 17 tons and carrylng1.8 tlmes tts authorlzed load wouldhave the samedestructlve effect as 8 normallyloaded trucks. A slngle axel truck has a muchmore destructlve effect thanone wlth the tandem axels.
A.Z A one-weekaxel welghlngprograrme ïas cârrled out In t987 by the BGRover a good part of the t{lger road netrork In general and on the Zlnder-Tanoutsectlon In partlcular. Thts survey made lt posslble to determlne,for heavyvehlcles plylng the Zlnder-Agadezroad, (l) thelr slze and forms, (ll) the real load per axel and the latter's varlancefrom l{lger regulatlonsand (lll) thelr countrlesof orlgln.
8.3 The maxlmumal lowed uelght per axel dlffers In each of the countrlesconcerned by the Trans-Saharanllnk of vhlch the Zlnder-Agadezroad ls a sectlon; they rangefrom t0 tons for Nlgerla,to ll.5 tonnesfor l{lger and 13 tonnesfor Algerla. A surveyconducted In varlousparts of Ntgershows that:
(a) l/4 of the trucks haveat least I axel overloadedand nearly three quarters (.f,,t4,of the artlculated trucks are runnlng agalnst the regulatlons; these are malnly trucks comlngfrom other countrles,401 of whtchhave at least I overloadedaxel'
(b) ll4 of the trucks have an overall overloadand nearly half of the artlculated trucks are runnlngagalnst the regulatlons'
BS0/0299M -29-
8.4 It wouldappear that trucks and artlculated vehlcles from Nlger or ' other countrles plyt ng the roads of Nlger are often overloaded. In the absenceof approprlatecontrol, thls sltuatlon could reduce the ltfe of the Zlnder-Agadezroad, and consequentlythe beneflts arlslng from constructlonof the road.
( I t ) l.lalntenance of the Road ,
8.5 Thedurablllty of the benefltsalso dependson the quallty of the malntenanceof the road. Roadmalntenance In Nlger ls carrled out by DTP rhlch fs under the MTP,elther by force account, In the case of routlne malntenance, or generally by contractors I n the caseI of perlodl'cal malntenance, The routl ne malntenance works are carrl ed out by the decentrallsedservlces of the DTPnhlch has branchesIn Agadezand Zlnder. Therels also a DTPsub-dlvlsfon at Tanout,sltuated between Zlnder and Gadez.
8.6 Monltorlngof road and programmlngof malntenanceworks are ,the responslblllty of the BGR(Road Malntenance Bureau) of the MTPStudles and ProgramnlngDepartment. The Bureauhas adeguatemeans to ensureefflclent prograrmlngof works, ln collaboratlon tllth the Fubllc llorks Laboratory Department.The latter hasall the baslc equlpmentand materlals requfred for monltorlngand auscultatlontest on the carrlageways.Addltlonal materlals andequlpment trlll be procuredto lmprovethe servlces.
;. 8.7 Routlnemalntenance ls flnancedunder the operâtlng.budget whlle perlodlcal malntenancels flnancedunder the Investmentbudget. Annex4C showsthe evolutlonof the MTPmalntenance budget between 1984 and 1989.
It shorsthat:
(a) the credlts approvedby the Governmentare lorer than requested by the MTP, representlng 801 of the real malntenancecredlt needs;
-,r-:'-.i-.-i*,Jr ,, . , -,*8.S6/0299M 30
(b) the expensesI ncurred by the DTPrepresent lOOf,of the credlts approved,whlch reflects the hlgh credlt absorpilon capacltyof the decentrallzedservlces of the DTpas well as propercondùct of malntenanceactlvltles.
8.8 Generally speaklng,the varlous stagesof road ,.tnt.*n.. (road monltorlng,rorks programmlngand executlon)are sultably carrled out by the ltlTP. Therels, however,need to Increasethe malntenancecredlts grantedto meetthe real needswhlch have become substantlal because of the extenslonof the roadnetwork and rlslng materlal,equlpment and operatlng expenses.
(ll) Prospectsof Developmentof the Trans-SaharanRoad
8.9 The,vlablllty of the Zlnder-AgadezRoad largely dependson the prospectsof constructlonto bltumenstandard of the Alglers-LagosTrâns- Saharanllnk, of rhlch lt ls part. In 1990,technlcal and economlc studles In respectof the remalnlng423 kllometres of unlmprovedtracks on elther slde of the Algerla-Nlgerborder ùtere completed; the 203 kllometreNlger part In 1983 and, morerecently, the 220kllometre Algertan part
8.10 The last meetlngof the Trans-SaharanRoad Co-ordlnatlon Commlttee organlzedIn Tunlson 4 and 5l.lay 1990,wlth the asslstanceof the Islamlc bevelopmentBank, revlved Interest In the completlonof the Trans-Saharan illghray. In partlcular, the Trans-Saharanroad proJect, unanlrursly and legtmateiyconsldered by the countrlesconcerned as a proJectfor Iniegrated developmentof sub-reglonswould, lt wasdeclded, be submlttedto the IDB at thg folloitlnû coordlnatlonmeetlng betveen Arab DevelopmentInstltutlons and OPEC.
'l
8S0/0299M 3l
9. CONCLUSIoT{S.LESS0}|SAt{DRECot'lilE}tDATIoNS
9.1 Concluslons
(l) 0n the yhole, the Zlnder-AgadezRoad proJect tlas ldentlfled opportunelyas a sub-reglonal Integratlon proJect. The ldentlflcatlon studles ttere properly conducted. The preparatlonstudles ttere based on over-optlmlstlcassumptlons concernlngthe evolutlonof the proJect area of lmpactand the Nlger econotny.The proJect costs Here over-estlmated, trlth the result that the flnanclers (ADF,EDF, Arab Funds) uereobllged to scaledown the proJectto the SouthLot whlch representsonly half of the Zlnder-Agadezroad. Nevertheless, the substantlalloan balancesmade ft possfbleto extendthe proJect SouthLot and lmproveapproxlmately 87tr of the total length of the road (74.1I mere than proJected). The remalnl ng I 31 | s fl nanced by the Bank and I s under executlon. TheproJect South Lot scheduledfor commlsslonlng I n I 987 uas actually completed I n | 988; the entlre ly bl tumen-surfacedZl nder-Agadez Road wlI I probably be completedIn 1991.
(2, The lmplementatlonof the proJect dld not ral se any partlcular problems:the performancesof the contractors,the Eorroyerand the Bankyere satlsfactory; someaspects of the servlcesof the consultantresponslble for studlesuere below expectatfon. Theconstructed road can realfze the proJected trafflc flow wlthoutdlfftculty and at an acceptablebasrc speed. Real, normaltrafflc notedup to 1990represents only 231"of total proJecfedtrafflc. The trafflc Increaserate shouldbe hlghervhen the Zlnder-AgadezRoad has beentotally bltumentzed.The re-estlmated rate of return of the road ls 6.57", assumlng the Governmentnl I I carry out malntenance sultably; otherwlse, the rate could fal I to 3.str. The expected economlc beneflts can be sustalned lf the Government'scurrent road malntenancepollcy remalnsunder: lmplementatlonfn the medlum term. The proJect's
BS0/0299t1 32
rt cost-effectlvenesscould Increaseslgnlflcantly rhen the Alglers-LagosTrans-Saharan llnk through Zlnder and Agadez hasbeen completed.
(3) 0n the who'le,the proJecthas been an averagesuccess.
9.2 Lessons
The lessonswhlch can be drawnfrom experlenceIn relatlon to the Zl nder-AgadezRoadproJect are as follows:
l. The perlodsbetween ldenttflcatlon, preparatlonand appralsal of proJectsare sometlmeslong and the economlccondltlons at the ilme of preparatlon and/or appralsal may dtffer from those at the tlme of ldentlflcatlon. Examlnatlonof the Zlnder-Agadezroad proJect has shownthat (l) rates of return may vary conslderablydependlng on the economlccontext and (tl) at each stage of the proJect cycle, there ls need to -prospectS, revlew the Bgrrower'ssltUatlon and economlc tO avold adoptlng over-optlmlstl c assumptlons for the calculatlonof the proJect'srate of return.
2, The Ztnder-Agadezroad constructlonproJect, on the one hand, recelvedthe total and flrm supportof Investorssuch as ADF, EDFand the Arab Fundand, on the other hand, rras guestloned by the Horld Bankwhlch conslderedthat pertodlc malntenance deserved prlorlty over constructlon, conslderlng Nlger's dlfflcult economlcsltuatlon. In suchcases, coordlnatlon of donors'actlvltles ls fundamentalslnce dlvergencymay llmlt the efflclency of thè measuresadopted by all concernedand thus result I n I nadequateresource al locatlon, to the
I !L detrlmentof the Borrower.
3. The cost of the Zlnder-AgadezRoad 1las over-assessed' As a result, the Borrowerand the investorswere obllged to relew the proJecton a reducedscale.
Bso/02991.1 -33
i
4. Someflnanclal beneflt maybe obtalned by dlvldtng worksof a certaln volumeInto lots, provldedeach lot ls executedwlthln a year, maklnglt posslbleto avoldprlce revlslon.
5. In casesof substantlalnpdlflcatlon of worksand thereforeof .the llst of goodsand servlces, and where two or severallocal enterprlsescapable of successfully executlngthe attendant addltlonalworks can be ldentlfled, ltmlted blddlngmay glve better prlcesthan addltlonal clause to the malncontract.
6. Mere lnspectlon ls not enoughto assessthe quallty of a completed road; roughnessand deflectlon measuresare necessary.These make lt posslble,not only to characterlze the roadwayfollowlng lts completlon,but also to lay down baslccrlterla for monltorlngfts subsequentperformance.
7. Thetrafffc level ls oneof the prlmaryIndlcators of economlc Justlflcatlon of a road proJect. Erroneousassessment of baslc trafffc maylead to an over-optlmfstlctrafflc forecast and,consequently, to an unJustlfledrate of return.
8. The trafflc forecast of a road largely dependson the potentfalof fts areaof lmpact,Includlng the agrlculturalor I ndustrlal development programmeswhl ch the Borroyer envlsages. Fallure to lmplementsuch progrefimescompromlses the roadproJect's profl tabl I I ty.
9.3 Recommendatlons
Glventhe above, In the llght of experlencesof the proJect and In order to enhance(l) the performancesof the Nlger road sub-sectorIn general and the proJect ln partlcular, and (il) the deslgn and lmplementatlonof future proJects, recommendatlonsare madeas follows:
8S0/0299M 34
A. To the Borrower
l. Pursuemedlum term appllcatlonof lts presentpollcy of preservatlon of the acqulred road sub-sector Infrastructure, and rlgorously programmeperlodlcal malntenance;
2. Carry out roughnessand deflectlon measureson the Zlnder-AgadezRoad as soonas lt ls completedIn l99l;
3. Provlde the RoadManagement Bureau and the Publlc Horks Laboratorythe flnanclal resourcesrequlred for regular fol low up and auscultatlon of the road and to perlodlcally checkaxel welghts;
4. Install welgh-brldgesat the borderwlth Nlgerla, on the Zlnderslde;
1 5. Ensurethat the ftnal reports preparedby the consult- ants contaln al I I nformatlon pertl nent to the malntenanceand use of the road;
6. Improvecoordlnatlon betueen the servlces of Mlnlstry of PublI c Norks and the l'11nlstry of Transport and more " especlal ly betweenthe PublI c l,lorksand Land Transport Departments,maklng clear the responsbllltles of those two departments; .
7. Strengthenagrlcultural developmentprogrammes ln the proJect areas of lmpact, partlcularly In AIR and DAMERGOU;
BS0/0299M -35-
8. Consldersolutlons to varlous admlnlstrattveobstacles wlth a vl ew to developlng I nter-state transport (Algerl a-Lybl a-Nl ger-Nl gerl a) and fl nalI ze bl I ateral agreementort road transport;
9. Increase current malntenance al locatlons I n order to meetthe real needs;
t0. CoordlnateInternal actlvltles relatfng to the trans- Saharanltnk vith tts sub-reglonalpartners In order to flnlsh off the remalnlngsectlons, elther sfmultaneously or one after the other.
B. To the Bank
t. Adoptextenslve proJect formulatlon, lf the Borrorerls In economlcdlfftculty, So as to allow for a certaln
degree of fl exlbl I I ty I n respect of econonlc rj fl uctuatlons; L
2. Carry out perlodlcal Interlm evaluatlonsof the proJect, In cases where the borrower I s undertaklng sl zeable economlc reforms;
3. Draw up a procedurefor approval,through addltlonal clauses, and award of supplementarycontracts for amountsexceedi ng 2OIof. the loan;
1. Carefullyéstfnate works costs on the basls of a market analysls concernlngslml lar works;
5. Ensure,at the time of appralsal,that the development programmesto be conductedIn the proJect area are reallstic andlfkely to recelvethe supportof lnvestors;
bsol0299M 35
6. Ensure,àt the tlme of appralsal, that the trafflc Increaieassumptlons used by the Eorrowerare reallstlc;
7. ' Partlclpate wtth IDB In the promotlonof the Trans- SaharanRoad proJect and also support the efforts of Nlger and Algerla to convert the tracks on elther slde of thelr bordersInto permanentroads, so as to Inltlate sub-reglonalintegratlon of Nlger, Algerla and Nlgerla uslng the Algl ers-Agadez-Zl nder-Lagos portlon of the Trans-SaharanHl ghway.
Ësoloeggil AI{NEXI PAGEI 12
l. Project Lot lB
l.l It conslstedIn the constructlonover 47 klllmetres of the RN ll llnklng ilIGERIAand ALGERIAand connectlngthe followlng maJortowns: MAGARIA (lllgerla border), ZINDER,TANOIT, AGADEZ, ARLIT and ASSAI'IAKA(Algerla border). Thls road replacesan earth sectlon wlth a platform wtdth between8 and l0 netres, for the most part sltuated at the natural groundlevel and covered rfth ffne gravely sandsor a road baseuslng materlals found In,the vlclnlty. The ner layout ras located near the exlstlng road ensurlng tt dtd not cross lt, so that the clrculatlon dtd not dlsrupt the works. It ls relatlvely tlght and llnks the vlllages of MAYBAGUARI,TARKA, BAKIN BIRJI, RAGEGAYA, GEZAI{Awlth a connectlngroad leadlng to BAKIN,BIRJI, RAGEGAYA and GEZAI^IA. 1,2 FTAÏURTSOF THEI{ORK EXECUTED Themaln features are as follows: I .2. I GEOI,TETRICSCHARACTERISÏICS
Theroad has the follorlng characterlstlcs: Platformwldth I1.20m Roadwldth 10.00m Prtmlngcoat rldth 7.20n lbuble layered coatfng rf dth 7.00m Transversalslope 2.50ï Gradlentof cutttng slope ll2 Gradlentof Flll slope 1l? - Mfnfhumhorlzontal radlus 1,500m - Mlnlmumconnectlng radlus (longdltudlnalsectlon): concave 5,000m convex 7,000m I .2.2 TECH}IICALCHARACTERISTICS
- Earthrorks: clear alluvlal sand, 90%compacted for OPl'land 95tr for the 20 upper cm.
- Foundatlonlayer: In natural materlals, lron and laterlte sand stones and laterlte gravels, wlth the thl ckness of I 5cm, 98tr compactedto 981 of the OPM. - Basecoat: In laterlte gravel, l5cmthlck, compactedto 98I compact to 98X of the OPM. - Cut-backprfmlng 0/l dose to I Kg/n2. Coatlng: double layered pure bltumen80/100, quartz rock chlpplngs (8112and 12t18> .
Respectlvedoslng: 2.2 Kgof blnder-Z2lltres of chlps.
Barrel: metallc,clrcular (0 80 andI00) wlth type P 6 arches.
BS0/0299!l ANNEXI Page212
2. LOT28
2.1 It conslstedln constructlnga 32.7 km sectlon(addltlonal clause No. I and 2) of the RNll llnklng Nlgerla and ALGERIAand runnlng through MAGARIA (1{lgerlanborder), ZINDER,TANOLT, AGADEZ, ARLIT and ASSAI.IAKA(Algerla border). The neï route cuts through the exlstl ng road l2 kl lomètres from AGADEZand ends at the Inter-sectlon of the TAHOUA-AGADEZRN25.
2.2 CHARACTERISTICSOF }ORKS EXECUTED Theroad has the followlng characterlstlcs:
Platformwldth 9.60m Roadnldth 8.00m Prlmlngcoat wldth 5.20m 6.00m Doublelayer coatlng vldth ' L Transversaleslope 2.50 Gradlentof cuttlng slope ll2 l,llnl mumhorl zontal radl us 1,000m lll nlmum connectlng radlus ( longdtudlnal sectlon): concave 4,200m convex 10,000m 1,500m. : Intakeand outlet of I nverts 2,500m. : Intakeand outlet of I nverts
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H h C)rq H éF{Fa N(YlNôI a HHF{ HHHH H A ooo oooo g H Fl Fl 1.1 Èl Fl 1.1 È ANNEX3 ,.,i;.!, Pager /3 ANALYSISOF TRAFFIC: IJ85-I990 A * COI'IPARISONOF NORMAL TRAFFIC In Vehlcles/Day I 985 1986 1987 | 988 I 989 1990 AVERAGE'DIF. : ZII{DER PK25 ., |. Appralsal(83) 238 258 277 297 319 345 ,, 2. update(85) 56 59 61 64 69 7l 3. Real (90) 53 65 75 83 87 83 : Dlff. Slr 0.22 0.25 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.24 0.26 Dlff. 312 0.95 l. r0 I .82 | .29 r.26 2.t5 I .16 TAIIOI'TPK 25 : .: . l. Apprafsal (83) 159 183 196 zt0 ZZS 243 2. update(85) 37 39 41 43 46 4g i',.' : 3. Real (90) 27 33 29 37 40 42 '',0.i7' ': Dlff. 3lt ,' 0.15 0.lg 0.14 o.17 o.l7 o.16 Dtff. 312 0.72 0.84 ,: 0.70 0.86 0.87 0.97'j 0.gl TAIId'T PK 4OO l. Appralsal(83) 90 99 106 ll3 l2l t3l ' , i' 2. (85) update 13 13 14 t4 fi ',.31t7 :: 3. Real (90) 16 31 22 33 34 ' Dfff. 3n 0.t7 0.31 o.2o ,; 0.29 0.28 0.2'30,9.24 ".1 Dlff . 312 1.23 2.38 1.57 2.35 2.00 1.82 t.89 AGADEZ-PK4OO l, Appralsal (83) 94 103 ll0 I 18 tZB 135 2. update(85) 20 2l 22 23 zs zl 3. !çq! tsQl 22 36 z7 32 36 42 Dlff. Sll 0.23 0.34 0.24 0.27 0.28 0.30 0.27 ii Dlff. 312 l.l0 t.7l 1.22 1.39 1.44 t.55 l.4o . ESo/0299r{ ANI{EX3 Page213 A}IALYSISOF TRAFFIC(985-1990) B - COI{PARISONOF GENERATED TRAFFIC 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 AVERAGTDIF. ZI}IDER PK25 l. Appralsal(83) 140 148 160 172 2. update(85) 3. Real (90) 12 30 43 62 Dfff. 3/t 0.09 0.20 0.26 0.36 ,,0.22 PKzs-TAÎ{CTJT | . Appralsal (83) - 98 105 I l2 lll 2. update(85) 3. Real (90) 26 78 74 47 Dlff. Slt 0.26 0.74 0.66 0.38 o.5l TAilOt'T-PK4OO l. Apprrlsal (83) 53 56 60 65 2. update(85) 3. Real(gO) 4 6 4 9 Dlff.3lt 0.075 0.r0 0.05 0.13 0.09 AGADEZPK 4OO I . Appralsal (83) 55 59 64 58 2. Upgradtng(85) 3. Real (90) 0 23 l0 17 Dlff. 311 0 0.38 0.r5 0.25 0.19 BS0/0299M At{flEX3 Page3/3 ANALYSISOF TRAFFIC (I985-1990) C - CO}IPARISOI{OF DIVERTED TRAFFIC 1985 1986 t987 t988 1989 1990 AVERAGEDIF. ZII{DER PK25 l. Appralsal - 20 22 23 23 2. update 3. Real Dlff.3/l - 0 0 0 0 ÏAIIOIJTPK 25 l. Appralsal 20 22 23 23 2. update - nd 3. Real Drff.3/l 0 0 0 0 TANOIJT-PK4OO l. Appralsal 20 22 23 23 2. update 3. Real Dlff.3tl 0 0 o 0 PK 4OO-AGADEZ l. Appralsal 20 22 23 23 2. update 3. Real Drff.3ll 0 0 0 0 '.'.|: BS0/0299t{ AiINEX4 A . VEHICLERUNNING COSÏ In CFAF/km Sltuatlon ttlthout Sltuatlonwlth the the ProJect ProJect Prlvatecars 148 93 Lorrlesand small buses 149 il5 Llght trucks 42? 268 Heavytrucks 546 346 Artlculatedlorrles 634 402 B. Roadtlalntenance Cost (ln CFA.F/Km) r rr Sltuatlon rlthout the Routlnemalntenance Perlodlcalmalntenance proJect CFAF640,000 cFAt ?,800,000 (every 5 years) ' rr Sltuatlon rlth the proJet Routtnemalntenance Perlodlcalmalntenance CFAF214,000 CFAF6,400,000 (every I years) ii Effeclve averagecost per kllometreof sectlonsand constructlve iorfi; tarrlng ôf speclflc spotsand sectlons as needed. Effectlve averagecost per kllometre of perlodlc malntenance (slnglelayer). C - Evolutlonof the Roadl.lalntenance Budget fronr1984 to 1989 (ln bllllons of CFAF)) Yeàrs Credlts Requestedby l-fTP Credlts Approved ExpensesEffected (. r 984-85 | .87 I .28 | .21 | 985-86 2.15 I .52 I .52 I 986-87 2.34 I .80 I .9r r987-88 2.43 2.16 2.16 I 988-89 2.57 2.ll 2.16 BS0/02991"1 ANNEX5 TRAFFICFORECAST: I99I.-2OI I vehlcles/daY A. r{oRr,rALTRAFFI. SECTION: ' SECTION: ZINDERPK 25 TAI{OI'TPK 25 PVL LT HÏ AT TOTAL PVL LT HT AT TOTAL r99r 25 35 9 211 82 r991 I 17 8 I 8 .42 1995 28 40 l0 212 92 r995 9 19 9 19 47 2000 33 46 t2 3 14 108 2000 ll ?2 il Iil 56 20rr 50 69 21 521 166 20tI 16 34 r8 316 87 SECÏIO1{: SECTIOI{: . TAI{OIJT-PK4OO AGADEZPK 4OO PV LT HT AT TOTAL PVLLTHTAT TOTAL r 99r 7 7 8r83l I 99r I l2 t2 942 I 995 I I 91935 r 995 9 13 14 l0 47 2000 9 9 il Iil 4l 2000 il 15 16 t2 55 20tr l5 t5 18 3 16 67, 20tr 16 23 28 r8 .88 B. GENERATEDTRAFFIC SECTION: SECTIOI{: ZINDERPK 25 TAIIOT'TPK-25 PVL LT HÏ AT TOTAL PVL LT HT AT TOTAL'8 r99l 5 7 203 t7 r99r 24 I 0 I 1995 6 I 203 l9 r 995 24 2 0l .9 2000 7 9 243 2l 2000 34 2 0 2 ll 20tl t0 t4 40432 201I 37 4 0 3'17 SECTIOil: SECTION: TAI{OIJT-PK4OO AGADEXPK.4OO PVLLTiIT AT TOTAL PV L LT HT AT TOTAL l99rlt4 0l 7 I 99r | 2 2 0l 6 1995222 02 I I 99s 2 3 3 02 t0 2000222 02 I 2000 2 3 3 02 l0 20ll 3 3 3 03 t2 201I 3 5 6 CI 3 t7 C. DIVERTTDTRAFFIC ZINDER.AGADEZ PVL LT HÏ AT ÏOÏAL PV Prlvatevehlcles l99t 2 2 202 8 L Lorrlesand Cars 1995 2 2 302 9 LT Llght trucks 2000 2 2 302 9 HT lleavytrucks 20ll 4 4 502l5 AT Artlculatedtrucks SCIJRCE: ADFMlsslon BS0/0299M AililEX6 CALCULATIONOF PROFITABILITYOF THEPROJECT Investmentand Benefl ts Unlt:CFAF Bllllon YEAR I}IVESTMETIT MAINTE}IAÎ{CE BEI{EFI TS OPTMTINGBE}IEFIT r985 - 3.r84 1.156 0.000 r986 - 6.650 -0.066 0.000 I 987 - 4.783 -0.045 0.692 r 988 - 3.270 0.093 1.053 r 989 0 0.093 0.976 r 990 - 3.820 0.093 0.897 r 991 - 2.750 I .345 | .427 1992 0 0.176 1.447 r 993 0 0.t76 I .580 I 994 0 0.r76 I .602 r 995 0 -0.r 25 r .606 I 996 0 -0.032 I .656 I 997 0 0.050 t.678 I 998 0 0.t76 r.697 | 999 0 0.176 1.761 2000 0 -0.656 I .759 2001 0 0.r76 1.875 2002 0 0.176 | .924 2003 0 | .428 I .981 2æ4 0 -0.r 25 2.035 2005 0 -0.032 2.r56 2006 0 -l .201 2.236 2007 0 0.r76 2.304 2008 0 0.176 2.334 2009 0 0.596 2.455 20t0 0 0.176 2.5r3 201I 0 0.176 2.649 sotRcE ADFl,ll ss lon BS0/02991,1 ANNEX7 CALCULATIOI{OF PROJECTRATE OF RETURN I{ETBENEFIT Unlt: CFAFBilllon CASEI CASE2 CASE3 CASE4 I 985 - 2.028 3.r84 - 2.028 - 5.2r3 I 986 - 6.716 6.651 - 6.716 -l 3.367 I 987 - 4.136, 4.335 - 4.205 - 8.92 r988 - ?.114 2.583 - ?.221 - 5.385 r 989 I .069 0.632 0.972 ',r .069 | 990 - 2.83 3.24 - 2.92 - 5.65 | 991 0.o22 r.826 - 0.121 - 2.728 1992 I .623 0.936 .478 ,623 r993 I .756 1.022 .598 .756 r994 1.778 t.037 .618 .778 r 995 1.481 .039 .321 .481 I 996 I .634 .078 .467 | .634 1997 1.728 .085 .551 1.728 I 998 1.873 .098 .703 r.873 r999 t.937 | .14 .761 r.937 2000 l.ll3 | .145 0.936 l.ll3 2001 2.052 r.213 1.864 2.052 2002 2.1 1.245 I .903 2.1 2003 3.409 1.282 3.21 3.409 2004 r.9ll 1.317 | .707 r.9ll 2005 2.124 r .39s r .909 2.124 2406 1.035 | .447 0.81| I .035 2W7 2.48 1.49r 2.25 2.48 2008 2.51 I .51 2.277 2.51 2009 3.051 r .589 2 .805 3.051 20r0 2.689 1.626 2.438 2.689 201I 5.025 3.91l4 4.76 7.225 IRR 6.5U 3.5Z 5.61 0.6 1 CASEI Roadwell malntalnedfollowlng commlsslonlngIn l99l; trafflc ,,ii lncreaserate accordlngto assumptlon. CASE2 Roadpoorly malntalnedfotlowlng commlsslonlngIn l99l; trafflc Increaserate for casel. CASE3 Roadwell malntalned;trafflc lncreaserate - CaseI mlnusl. cASÈ4 Roadrell nrlntalned; trafflc Increaserate - Câsel: Real cost of Investmentper kflometre= cost estlmateon evaluatfon. Source ADFMi ssion. Èso/029gt'l ANNEX8 FIMNCINGOT THE ZINDER-AGADEZROAO (In million of CFAF) AIfUIIT DISBURSEI{ENTDURATIO}I GRACEPERIOD I}ITERESTRATE SAUDI FtÀ[I 2704800 1434317 15 YEARS 5 YEARS 1t ABEDA 2106832 1035473 12 YEARS 4 YEARS 67. IDB 3521763 1846073 20 YEARS 5 YEARS 2.5 t ADF I 3734100 3734100 40 YEARS IO YEARS 0.75 /. ADFII 3024621 0 40 YEARS IO YEARS 0,75L OPECTUilD 1386805 711056 l2 YEARS 5 YEARS 1/. TOTATFIMI{CII{G 16478921 8761019 TOTATFOR ROAD SECTOR 55649069 40642840 TOTALEXTERiIAL DEBT 45r30590 335416390 8S0/0299r{ INTERII,IPROJECT CqIPLETION REPORT 9N CONSTRUCTIOTIOF A SECTIOT{OF THE ZINDER-AGADEZROAD REPUBLICOF NIGER 4 INFRASTRUCTUREAND INDUSTRYDEPARTMENT II NOVEMBERI 988 BSOl0244t4 REPUBLICOF NIGER CONSTRUCTIOTIOF A SECTIONOF THE ZINDER-AGADEZROAD PROJECTCOMPLETION REPORT Data Summary I. CCI'NÏRY Republlcof Nlger 2. PROJECT Constructionof a sectlon of Zlnder-AgadezRoad 3. PROJECTNUI'IBER ADB/BD/nP183t99 4. EORRONER The Governmentof the Republicof Nlger 5. EXECUTINGAGENCY Mlnl stry of l(crks andTown Planning A. LOAN l. Requestfor flnanclng r983 2. Amount(FUA mllllon) 10.00 3. Interest rate 0 4. Repaymentperlod 40 years 5. Graceperlod l0 years 6. llegotlatlons l4lil /1983 7. Approvalby the Board t{ovember1983 8. Stgntngof loanagreement 3rltt 184 9.. Effectlveness t5l2l85 B. PROJECTDATA Estlmate At Appraisal Actual t. Total cost (FCFAmlllton) Inltlal proJect (portlon tB) 4 167 2 363 Codlclls (portlon 28) -:- 1 8:29 Total 4 167 4 192 2. Flnanc I ng plan (tn Forelgn Local Forelgn Local (FUAml | . ) Exchangecurrency Total Exchangecurrency Total Initlal project (portion Inltlal proJect(portlon IB) lB) (+ Codicilsportlon 28) - ADF 7.50 2.49 9.99 7.50 2.50 10.00 - Government l.l0 l.l0 r.r0 1.00 Total 7.50 3.59 11.097.50 3.60 il.19 BSO/o2d4M Es t i mate - At Aporaisal nctûàl 3. Effective date for first disbursement 30/5/85 April 1985 4. Effectlvedate for last dlshursement 3ln2/89 1t8t87 5. Commencementof works Portion I B 84 Feb. 1985 Portlon28 1.0,. July 1986 6. Completlonof yorks Portlon lB ApriI 85 Jan. I 986 Portlon 28 Feb. I 987 c. PERFORMANCEINDICATOR l. Savlng(+) CostOverruns (-) PortlonslB + 28 -11" 2. Galn or delay ln numberof months Loaneffectlveness Flrst dlsbursement(Porfion lB) .f Last dlsbursement(Portlons lB + 28) +20 Numberof extenslonsof the deadline for Iast dlsbursement 0 Completlon(Portlon lB) -t0 3. ProJectlmplementation Commencementof proJect (date) Portlon lB February1985 Portlon 28 July 1987 ProJectcompletlon (date) Portlon lB January1986 Portlon 28 February1987 4. Performanceof ExecutlngAgency Satlsfactory 5. Performanceof contractor Satlsfactory 6. Performanceof consultantresponslble for Inspectlonand supervlsionof works Satlsfactory D. l.lIssI0Ns l{o. of Date Persons Man/months' Identlfl catlon 1982 PreparatI on June I 6.so Appralsal August1983 2 2.00 Supervision OecemberI 984 I 0.50 0ct./Nov.1985 I 0.50 Flnanciers'meeting November1985 2 0.75 FebruaryI 988 I 0.75 Interim PCR JuneI 988 2 2.50 TOÏAL 7.10 BSO/02441,1 | -r' Esttmatei n Appraisal Report ACtual_ E. Total dlsbursements(ln FUAmllllon) Total dlsbursement:Portlon lB 10.00 5.60 Total dlsbursement:Portlon 28 4.4O Amountcancel led Unexpendedamount Annualdl sbursernent 1984 8.57(Portlon lB) ' : 1985 1.43(Portlon lB) l.7l (porfionlB) ; 1986 3.99(Portion tB) , 1987 2.13 (PorHon28) 2.27 (Plotlon 28) Total 10.00(Portlon lB) 10.00(Portlon lB +28) F. CONTRACTOR Name SATOM Responslblllty Clvll engtneerlngworks Date of slgnlng Contract | ?lÛZlgs Codlcll 1lo. I Codlcll f{o. 2 24103187 Completlondate of Contract . 03104196 Codlcll llo. I lll0ZlBT Codlcll l{o. 2 ltl04t}7 '-Duratlon of :;:''','' , COntfaCt 14 mOnthS CodlcllNo.l gmonths CodlctlNo.2 trcnth Amountof Contract FCFA2.214 bllllon Codlcl I l{o. I FCFAI .515 bt I I lon Codfcl I l{o. 2 FCFA0.179 bt I I ton G. COI{SULTANT llame GroupementBCEoII,|/BELLIER c0t{sul/scET TUNISIE Dateof slgning Contract lB/03/85 Codlcil No. I 13/03/86 Codicll No. 2 Ztl03tï7 Completiondate of Contract ApriI 1986 Codlcil No. I Februaryl9B7 CodicilNo. 2 April tbaZ BSOlOz44t4 Duratlon of Contract 14 months Codlcil No. I l0 months Codicil No. Z I Amountof Contract FCFAI 49.239bi I I ion Codlcll l,lo.I FCFA112.500 bllllon CodlclI No. 2 FCFA17.533 bl I I lon D. EXCHAI{GERATE Currencyunlt FrancsCFA (F.CFA) Rate at proJect appralsal (Portlon lB) | FUA= 375.757F.CFA Rate at proJect completlon(Portlon (lB) | FUA- 382.474F.CFA Averagerate durlng proJect lmplementatlon I FUA- 414.536F.CFA ABBREVIATIONS ABEDA : Arab Bankfor DevelopmentIn Afrlca IDB : Islamlc DevelopmentBank cccE : Calsse Centrale de CooperatlonEconomlgue EDF EuropeanDevelopment Fund ocBl{ Organlsatlon CommuneBENIT{-I{IGER OPEC Organlzatlonfor PetroleumExportlng Countrles PIC Plan Intermedlarede Consolldatlon RA}I RegleAbldJan-Nlger S1{TF Soclete llatlonale des TransportFluvlaux LIST OF AII]{EXES AI{NEXilO. TITLEOF AiII{EX PAGEI{UI.IBER t. Nlger Roadl,lap I 2. Mapof the ProJect Area I FI}IAÎ{CIALYEAR I January-31December BSO/02ri4r{ TABLEOF CONTENTS Page I. INTRODUCTION I . I Hlstorl cal Background I .2 Descriptionof the TransportSector 2 .3 0bJectlvesof the Project 6 .4 Impactof BankGroup Financed ProJects in the TransportSector 6 .5 Sourcesof Informatlonand BaslcData Used 6 2. PROJECTDESCRIPTION 7 2.1 Componentsof the Project 7 2.2 ProJectFinancing 7 2.3 Changesin the Inltial ProJect 7 3. PROJECTIMPLEMEI{TAIION I 3.I LoanEffectiveness I 3.2 Procurementof Goodsand ServlcesFlnanced by ADF I 3.3 ProJectImplementatlon Schedule 9 3.4 Dlfflcultles Encounteredduring Project Implementatlon ll 3.5 ProJectcost ll 3.6 Dlsbursements t2 3.7 Performanceof the ConsultantUsed by the'Borrower,the Contractor and the Bank t2 4. ECONOMICANALYSIS t4 4. I Introductlon l4 4.2 EconomlcSltuatlon of the Countrybefore andat ProJectAppralsal l4 4.3 Overall EconornlcEvolutlon of the Road'sArea of Impact l4 4.4 PresentSltuatlon Comparedto ProJectlonsmade at Appralsal r5 5. CONCLUSIONSAND RECOMMENDATIONS t7 5.1 ResultsCompared to ObJectives t7 5.2 Lessonsfrom the Project t7 Thls repoart has beenprepared by Mr. G. Palme(civil Engineer)andMrs. ouedraogo(Transport Economist) fol lôwing their mission to Niger fn June 1988. TheDlvislon Chlefs responsible are: Messrs: Byaruhanga,HISI. l, Extension3154 T. T. Katombe,hlCPR.l, Extension 3l58 BS0/0244M INTERIMPROJTCT.I COMPLETION REPORT ON CONSTRUCTIONOF A SECÎIONOF THEZINDER-AGADEZ ROAD REPUBLICOF NIGER I. INTRODUCTION I . I Historl cal Background l.l.l RoadInfrastructure plays a very importantrole In Nlger, especially in lts trade wlth nelghbourlngcountries and In lts economlcand social developnent. One of the princlpal obJectlvesof the country's successlve developmentplans ls to "provide it with adequateroad lnfrastructure to enableit keeppace wlth the developmentof the natlonal economy:. 1.1.2 Thts ls preclsely the context of the Zlnder-Agadezroad constructlon project rhtch alms at establlshlnga permanentlink betweenthe economically complementaryreglons located In the centre'-south and north-east of the country. 1.1.3 This road ls one of the last sectlonsof the Trans-SaharanHlghway Itnklng Alglers to Lagos. Its construction wlll therefore contribute to tnè lmlletnentatlon of one of the oldest Afrlcan lnternatlonal road proJects IncludedIn the programmeof the TrgnsportDecade In Afrlca. !11.4. , Io"1982, the englne,erlngstudles for the constructlonand tarrlng of the Zlnder-AgadezRoad as Hell as an economlcfeaslblllty study yere conduated 9V a consultlng flrm on flnanclng provldedby the Unlted NationsDevelopment Programme(Ut'lDP) and the OPECFund. The economlc study concluded on the feaslblllty of the proJect and the proJect yas technlcatty deslgnedfor a platform of l0 meiresrlth a ntdth of 7 metrestarred t.l,! În August 1983, a mêetlnEof flnanclers rras held In DJeddah. The T99tln$,broughttogether the IDA, the OPECFund, ABEDA, Saudl Fund-,UNDP, EDF, ADB, the Trans-Sahe,lfanLiai son Comnlttee and representatlves of thé Governmento'f l{lger. The meeting accepted the construction of the Ztnder-Agadezroad, and the financleis agreed fn prfnciple to finance thls road. Thedlfferent contributionswhich were announced (US & 57 mlllion) only coveredthe flnancing of 226 km of road (divided into 3 sections)out of â total of 424 km. It was therefore agreedthat the project shouldbe finairced in tvo phases, In November1983, the ADFappraised and approveda loan of FUA l0 milllon for the financing of section lB (47 km) long and works rrere completedin March1986. 1.1.6 In 1985,taking into accountthe unfavourableeconomic situation and the short and medlum-termdevelopment prospects of the country, a Structural AdjustmentProgramme rvas negotiated betweenNiger and the Nôrtd Bank. Ihe slow downin economicactivities and its effects on road traffic promptedthe needto updatethe initial economicfeasibility on the Zinder-Agadezproject. BSO/0244M -2 1.1.7 Thls updatl.ngof the study which assumedvery conservative proJectlons traffic comparedto the first study howeverconciuded on the economic Justification of. the project. The co-financiersr.i .g.in in o3eOoân-tn November1985 and agreedin principle to continuethe lm"plementationof the proJect but by rgqy.cingthe technical featuresof the secondphase ot thà rôao from a roadwaywidth of 7 metr,eson a platform of l0 metresto a roadwaywldth of 6 metreson a platformof I metres. This reductionii-sJstified Uy"amùin lower trafflc on the sectionsof the secondphase. slni."it'. implem"eni.iiàn of the f i rst ph.ase.of the projett had unexpbndedbal ances on tlie di fferent loans, lt t{as decidedthat these unexpended'balancesbe reallocated to if'. phase second 9f the .project._- Changesin the initial I ist of goods and servlcesmade it posslble to finance2 additlonal sectlons. ADFcônstructed sectlon 28 (32.5 km) which rras comp'letedl n Februaryt 9B7 and EDFsec6on ZA (35.0 km) the completionof whlchwas scheduled for Nôvember1988. l:l:8.. Durlng the third meetingof flnanciers held In Nlameyin February 1988the flnanciersagreed ln principle: to use the unexpended balance sti I I available on IDB/ABEDA/FSD/OPECand NIGER financlng estlmated at FCFA4 bi I I ton I n order to construct a sectiôn Q5 km) long on the secondphase (section 2C); to request the ADFfor a supplementaryloan to flnance the last section (55 km) long on the secondphase (sectlon 38) ln order to completethe Zlnder-Agadezroad proJect. 1.1.9 A mlsslontherefore visited Niger ln June1988 to appralsethe second Pltaleof the proJect and preparea completlonreport on the iirst phaseof the Zlnder-Agadezroad. ].1.10 The proJectcompletlon report concernssections IB and 2 B, flnanced by the ADF. Glven that only one part of the Zlnder-Agadezroad has been ggmpleted,thls PCRls an Interlm report whlchconcerns ônly sectlons lB and 28 especlallylts technlcalaspects. l.l.ll Insofar as the presentsltuatlon does not correspondto the sltuatlon proJectedat appraisalwhlch involvedthe entlre road, the report wlll makea general economicvaluation of the qualitative aspectsof the sectlonsalready I mplemented. l.l.l2 Later or, a traditional completionreport will be madewhen the entire workswill be completedand the economicinterest of the road could be achi eved. 1.2 Descriptionof the transportsector 1.2.1 l'llth lts surfacearea of 1.3 milllon km2,Nlger ls oneof the largest landlockedcountries of the Sahel. Closeto 90%of its area is locatedin the Saharanzone where the populationdensity is extremelylow. Thesetwo factors maketransportation very vital in the country. In spite of projectsdrawn up yearsôgo, the railwaylines of neighbouringcountries which provide access to the sea (OCBNin Beninand RAN in BurkinaFaso and Cote d'Ivoire) havestill not reachedNi ger. However, they are not sti I 1 consi dered with the same acutenessowing to tlre considerablecosts of suchinvestments compared to the BS0/0244M 3- ..; ; expectedtraffic. The few attemptsmade to developrïver transport on the Niger river have not yet yielded positive results. The remaining posslbtlities are alr tiansport whlchshould be feasible becauseof the long di stances betweenthe towns and the country's I andlockedposi tlon, and especially road transport which is and will for a long time remainthe most favouredmode of transport and also the mostused. 1.2.2 Accessto the sea is possiblethrough three maJorroutes the Benin route: about ll00 km; this route links Nlameyto Gaya and Parakouby road, and later llnks Cotonouby rail or road; the Togo route: about 1350km; this route llnks Nlameyto Lome by road throughBurklna Faso; the Nlgerlan route: about 2035 km betweenNlamey and Lagosand 1450km from Zinder to the sea. This route llnks the ientral and eatern regions of Niger by road up to Kano, and later by rall or road to Lagosor Port Harcourt. It ls through thls route that hydrocarbonslntended for Nlameyor Zlnder and Arllt are lmported. Roadïraniport 1.2.4 The natlonal road networkof Nlger classlfled by decreeIn July 1968 and amendedln January1969 has the following maJorfeatures as at endof 1986. Table3.1 CLASSIFICATIOI{OF ROADI{ETI,IORK Classlfled Unclasslfted Roads Roads Total Percentaglr (km) (km) (km) Tarred roads 2 768 559 3 327 33.7 Earth roads 2 042 I 504 3 646 37.0 Rural roads 268 665 934 9.5 Tracks I 615 334 I 955 19.8 Total 6 694 3 r68 9 862 r00.0 I .2.5 The network classlfled ln terms of the qualtty - and type. of lnfrastructure has great'ly improvedespeclal ly since 1978. The lenqth'of târred roads has doubled and earth roads havà been modernlzed. SlncÉ thfs classlflcatlon ls stlll somewhatsubjective, the RoadManagement Bureau (Rl|B) of the t'linlstry of Public Horksand Housinghas beengiven the responsibillty to establish a functionalclassification of the roadnetwork. 1.2.6 Theprimary network comes under the following three majoraxes: Hest-Ëast axls constltuted by RNI whlch crosses Nlger over nearly 1850km from Mali to LakeChad; North-south axis - essential I i nk of the Trans-saharan constituted by the Arlit-Agadexroad and the RNII which goes fromAgadex to Nigeriapassing by Zinder,about 800 km; and BS0/0244M 4- the 525 km I iai son axi s betweenthe l^lest-Eastand North-South constituted bv RN29 and the Tahoua-Asadez Ëi;:' sectiôn'oi-ih, 1'2'7 Thereis a very denseroad networkin the part of the southof Abala-N'9qigmi "North cotntry located Iine the so,iireo timit àr cuItures,,whlch only represents 265:000 km2 Qor of the national comprlses territory) but whlch about 2650km l.e. 807"of the totat tarred networkand regroups of the total populailon. 7o1. Alr Transport l'2'8 The country has one International alrport In Niamey airports.pro-vid.ing and sfx local iegu-larfli.ghts: rarràui,ngadei, Zinderl uaraot, Dlffa and Arllt, the latter stftt has tire status ài a private iirport. altl!ne, The national Alr Nlgerwas dissolved In tg8i; but-hàwevei,tro'H-d zqa alrcraft stlll operatlng. are |'2'9 Internatlonal fIIghts are at the moment_operated by the followlng alrllnes: Alr_.Afrlgue, uTA,. nrgàirq and Eftrropr-an-e-urkin.,Airlrnes, nelghbourlng .A!r. 11hlle fllghts are providedby Âtr Benln, Àir Alr ilalt NlgerlaAlrways. and 1.2.t0 International alr transportwhich recovered sllghgy In l9g2 pr-e^cedl!9 (82,800'passengers compared !9-Jh. Jears per annumlaier stagnatedbetween -in f983 and 1985 durlng rhlch traffic was a.ôuno 1s,.ôoopaiiângàrs. roieùài, 1986, there T{asa ciear recovery_tnthe level of iraffi. rt'fËf, passengers_represen_tlng r'ecordààbg,OOô an annualgrorth rate of l7Z and corresponatng[à'ihà 1980 trafflc level. Thls alr trarrtc réiumptlon tranJtites' the î.iàuàii started In the economlcactlvlty of the entlrd countryfoliowlng the;;;i;; recovery and adJustmentmeasures undertaken slnce fg"BS;ttte malntenanceof thls.recovery ls therefore foreseeableat least up to 1-eei ii-".cou^t ts taken of .the proJectlons of the Flve-Year Developnientplan fl986-t991) nhlch envfsagesthe consoltdailonof thlngs alreadyaciulred. l.2.ll Alr frelght transp-ortdld not record the samegrowth as that of passengers;thus thls trafflc regularly reducedbetween f-ggO and lgg2 yhen 10,800 tons were..rec_orded,then a pertod of perslstent it.gn.tion uetvlln i!àj and 1986nhere.the level of traffic was mathtainedat t,ôôo tonr rrnipite-ài the peakof 10,000tons recordedin l9g5). Rlver andMarltime Transport 1.2.12 the Soclete llatlonale des Transport Fluviaux (SNTF) whlch rras establlshedIn 1972,functioned with a lot oh oifflcultiei up-to l9gl, whenla wwasdlssolved. Agaln, ln 1977,a river and maritime-iraniport divlslon yras set.up.under the road transport departmentand studies ,.ià'conductedon the establishmentof a.rlver port at Gayaand Niamey,but theseproJects have been suspended-owing to a numberof obstacles, such as vàriàtions in the navigabllity .of the river from one year to another, the existence of standbanksand rock benchesin somesectiôns, and the absenceof lighting.- 1-2.13 The countryis landlockedand has no sea port. Its maritimetraff!c is -at present undertakenby foreign companiesuilng neighbouringports in Benin, Togo and Nlgeria. In this regard, it can be sajd ilrat Niger has 1çh!9vedits objectiveof diversifyingits accessroutes to the sea so as to limit the risks involvedin dependingôn a singlecountry. BS0/0244M 5- l.?.14 Nlger has a national shipperscouncil,_ responstble for defending Interests the of local -shippersand assuming control of'traffic rights in the long run- The national shippers counci I of Niger,-(Mali I i ke those of the other landlocked countrles, of the sub-region and Burkina-Faso),,as established unde^r.Jh. purvlew of the Ministerial Conferenceof pest and Central Afrlcan Stateson MaritimeTransport. This conferencehas recommenùed the establlshmentof Multinationalcompaàies to ensurethe maritimetraffjc of the different membercountries.,(including l,liger). Generiityspeaking, Nigàr,s maritlmepolicy complleswith the recommendat-ionsof this.oiter.nce. RaiI Transport ' I .2. l5 ger Nl .ls the olly l'lest Afri can country without a ral I way systemon Its-terrlloty!.however,if operatesin partnersf,ipwitÀ g.nin, the oCBN,whose 11!llay llne llnks Cotonouto Parakou,ôn Benintbrriiôrv-iione in addition to l4l km of various rai I I lnes rvlthin the samecountry. After pariloï,- goods tte intended.for. Nlger are carrled by road as f-ottowi: two vehicles thirds on belon_gingto Niger natlonalsand one third on Beninvehicles cSoint operation) tlll the goodsare transportedto their flnal Orlfination in Niiàr. l'2.16 The flnanclal recoveryand rehabllttation programmeof gCBN,,as drayn t,lth the asslstanceof the ciisse centrale de coôpsiatiônr.onomtquà-côccÈl for a total amountof FCFA4 billion. Theprogramme consisted in: terecommunicauons; --' iÏ[5â'?',itfi.lll];.;Tf"noo'' flnanclal restructu!'!ng: settlementof outstanding debts and consoli dafion of working capltal . 1,2 Transportplannlng l'2'l Followfngthe 1978-1983Flve Year Plan and owlng to the unfavourable-pi.n--iiôËl economlc sltuatton, Niger prepared ( . an lnterim conso-ltd;tio; I 984-l985) whose -oujeCttvei as regards transport 11ere as ( complete fol lows: I ) .qroJectsalready undertaken,(2) maintainthe âxisting netwôrl, iel open up the areas that are not integrated into national economic The activlty. structural adJustment.programme itggo-t989), prelared-'in collaboration Ylth the Horld Bank,has bàen-implemenf.o"no its objectives transport in respectof are slgltlflcantly the iame as thôse of Icp, but further accords prlority to the followingpôints: promote rural developmentsupport..operatlons by intensifying the road netuork and rural tracks, thé openingup of agri-çufiuiii areas in order to faciljtate the traniportition of produce; a!riculturil safeguardexisting roadsthrough road maintenance; supportproduction industries throughthe constructionof tarred roadsamong other things. The.newtransport programme drawn.in lg}i repeatsthe sameobjectives as those definedabove in respectof the transportsector in the struëtural programme- adjustment BS0/0244M -6 1.3 Objectivesof the proJect 1.3.1 TheZinder-Agadex road project aimed at: (l) establishing a permanentand more dlrect llnk betweenthe prlnclpal town of the Central-Southreglon of Nlger (Zlnder) whlch ls the country'smost importantagrlcultural-reglon, -l ind that of the l{orthern Region rlhich i s devoted to I veitock breedlngand has manyexploitable mlneral resources(for example uranlum) . (lt) lmprovlngthe llnk betweenthe north of Nlgeria and northern Nlger, and conslderably advance the conitructlon of the Trans-SaharanHlghway, of whlch the Zlnder-Agadexroad ls one of the last sectionsnot yet tarred. 1.4 ImPactof BankGroup flnanced projects ln the transoort sector 1.4.1 BankGroup operatlons In the transport sector In t{lger amountlngto a total of FUA28.90 mllllon (1.e. about 24i-of all Bank Gr-oupoperailôns In 1{!0q1)are I lml-tedexcluslvely to the road sub-sector,owlng td ttre lmportance of thls modeof transport In the country. The Bankhas therefore lntervened on three occaslonsIn the road sub-sector, ln conformlty wlth the prlorliles deflned by the government. 1.4.2 The flrst operatlon of the Bank Group yas the flnanclng of the bltumen surfaclng of the Zlnder-Dogoroad. Thls road, whlch ls pait of the route that_provldesaccess to the sea for reglons ln the South-Eastof lllger, not only allows a llnk betveenZlnder and Kanoln the north of t{lgerla bu[ lt also l-l.nksAlglers to Lagosas thls ls a sectlon of the Trans-SahàranHlghway llke the Zlnder-Agadexroad. Followlng the openlng of thls road, zindei Dlvlslon tthlch ls the secondand most lmportant ln the country ln terms of populatlon,has developedlts trade wlth Nlgerla 1.4.3 After ttrls operatlon, the Bankflnanced two secondary-needroad proJects In 1983and 1986. TheseBank Group 'North-t{estoperatlons met an urgent-East fn'opËnlng up- the agro-pastoral areas In the and ln the of the côuntr! rhlch uere hard hlt by drought. The constructlon of these roads madelt posslble to llnk areas llke Durofaneand BelbeJl whlch are deflclent ln àgrlcultural produce, to the Tessouaand Karnakaareas whlch have a surplus and In turn beneflt from the I ivestock resources of the two precedlng reglons. The complementarltyof these different areas have been strengthenèd ând thelr trade has also beenstimulated. 1.5 Sourcesof informationand _basic data used 1.5.1 The present report has beenprepared on the basls of the proJect's appralsal report, fl nal reports by the consultant responsI bl e for the Inspectionand supervlsionof works,the Bank'sarchives and the documentand informationcollected by the Bank'smission that visited Nigerin June1988. BSO/0244M -7 z. PROJECTDESCRIPTION 2.1 Comnonentsof the oroiect 2.1.1 TheproJect comprlsed the following components: (t) lmprovementand bitumensurfacing of a two-laneroad measurlng 215km long and 7 m wldewith two shoulderseach measuring 1.5 mi (l I ) consultancyservlces for workssupervislon and lnspectlon. 2.2 ProJectflnancing 2.2.1 The secttonproposed for ADFflnanclng comprlsed: the lmprovementand pavementof 47 km of the road from PK 4o to PK87. 2.2.2 The other sectlons are flnanced by EDF(PK 0 to PK 40) and the Arab flnanciers: IDB,ABEOA, SAUDI FUND,Optc (pK 87 to pKZIS). 2.3 Changesln the initlal project 2.3.1 As tndlcated In Chapter1.1.7 of thls report the co-flnanclersmet agaln In DJeddahln November1985 and agreed ln'prlnclple to contlnue the Inrplementatlonof the proJect but by reducingthe technlcal characterlsilcs of the secondphase of the road. 2,3.2 Slnce the. lmplementatlonof the flrst phaseof the proJect resulted tl ân.unexpendedbalance in respectof the dlfferent loans,'lÙ was declded that the balance be re-al located to the secondphase of tire proJect. The modlflcatlon of the lntttal llst of goodsand servlces madelÈ pôssfble io flnance ! supplementarysectlons. ADFconstructed secilon 28 (32.b km) whlch uàs comp.le.tedln.February 1987 and tDF section 2A (350 km) expectedtq be completedin November1988 ?--3---a..Durlng the third meetlngof flnanclers held in Niameyln February 1988the financiersagreed that: the unexpendedbal ance sti I I avaiI able on IDB/ABEDA/FSD/0pECand Niger financingestimated at FCFA4 billion be usedto constructa section(75 km)long on the secondphase (section Zc). BS0/0244M -8 3. PRoJECT_lr4PLlMtNIAnAX 3.I Loaneffectlveness 3.r.1 The grantl ng of the loan was subject to the fol lowing special condi tl ons: . (a) Precedentto first disbursement,the Governmentshall undertake I n writi ng to: (l) lncludein lts annualbudget the necessaryallocations to fTnanceits share of the project costs accordingto the fi nanclng plan; (ll) bear an additional financlng In the event of overrunln the total cost of the project estimatedin the appraisal report; (tlt) includein lts annualbudget the necessaryallocatlons to cover recurrent expensesrequl red for the malntenance of the road network; ( i v) refral n from using the proceedsof the loan for the paymentof varlous dutles and taxes In respect of goods and services required for the lmplementatlonof the proJect; (v) malntainon the northern portlon a level of servlce that will allow traffic flow up to Agadez. (b) In addition to the above-mentionedcondltlons, the Government should: (l) show proof that loan agreementswlth the other lenders have been sTgnedor that the latter have undertakenIn wrltlng to particlpateIn the proJectflnanclng; (ll) furnish the list of goodsand servlcesto be flnancedulth the proceedsof the loan. 3.1.2 ïhe conditjonswere fulfilled withln one year and the loan beçame effectlve on 15 February1985. 3.2 Procurementof goodsand service 3.2.1 The proceduressubmitted to the ADFBoard of Directors for approval Here International competitivebidding after the pre-se'lectionof firms for the lmplementationof worksand tenderson the basis of a short list for works lnspectlonand supervision. It was recommendedthat the consultingengineer should sub-contractthe part concerning the geotechnica'l i nspectionand supervisionof worksto the NationalPublic l,{orksLaboratory. 3.2.2 The contract for the road rvas awarded through i nternational competitivebidding after shor-t-listingsixteen (16) firms from the groupof firms. ADFapproved of the Government'schoice to entrust the workcontract to MessrsSATOM Company to constructa sectionof (portion lB, (47 km) long, PK 40 to PK 87) for a total amountof FCFA2,238,476,928. Notification for the contractwas given on l2 February1985. BSOl0244M 9- ..; 3.2.3 Followlngthe decislonstaken at the financlers' meetlngIn November 1985,ADF gave notlce of its agreementin April 1986for the modificationof the proJect's goodsand services to allow the :ontinuation of the works. Thus,Messrs SATOM company was notified of two (2) ':odicils: (l) Codtcll No. l, notified on ll April 1986,of a total amountof FCFA1,573,428,150 relating to the constructlonof an addltlonal road sectlon, 30 km long (portlon 28, first part: PK 394 to PK 424Agadez); (ll) Codtcil No.2 notlfled on ll December1986, of a total amountof FCFA179,259,378 relatlng to the constructlonof an addltlonal road sectlon,2.5 km long (portion 2Blsecondpart: PK 391.5to PK394). 3.2.4 llcrks Inspectlonand supervlslonservlces uere effectlvely doneon the basls'of a short llst. TheADF approved thls short ltst of 7 consultlng flrms on 8 June 1984and the llmlted blddlng rras launchedat the end of June 1984. Flve offers ïere analysedon 24 August 1984. The ADF approvedthe Covernment'scholce to entrust the contract for works Inspectlon and supervlslon to the BCEO|,|/BELLERCOIfSULT/SCET TUNISIE group for a total amount of FCFA158,866,925. The contract wasnotlfied to the Groupon 18 March1985. 3.2.5 The geotechnlcalpart of the works supervlslon and Inspectlon ras effectl vely sub-contracted to Natlonal PublI c Horks Laboratory by the englneerl ng consultant. 3.2.6 To contlnue the Inspectlon of rorks relatlng to the two condlclls sfgned rlth l.lessrsSATOf'l company for works on sectlon 28, tro codlclls rere also notlfled to the BCEO'I/BELLERCONSULT/SCET TUNISIE Group: (l) Codlcfl t{o. I amountlngto a total of FCFAil4,977,750. (lt) Codlcll No. I amountlngto a total of FCFA17,532,550. 3.3 Prolect lmplementatlonschedule 3.3.1 The proJect lmplementatlonschedule proJected that work on the ADF sectlon (lB) rould conmenceln September1984 and be conpletedIn Aprll 1985. 3.f.e The works contract yas notlfled on lO February 1985 but work effect|velycomnencedon20l.1ay|985andwascomp|etedon3A!rll|986 3.3.3 The table belowgives the delays recordedln the lrnplementattonof the proJect (section lB) comparedto proJections. 3.3.4 The delaysrecorded are due malnlyto: the fact that no accountwas taken In the appraisal report of, the time required for the pre-quallfication of contractors (actual duratlonobserved was 7 months;January to Ju'ly 1984); difficulties encounteredby the contractor in commencingvorks fast (3 months passed betweencontract notificatlon on 12 Februaryl9S5 and the aitual commencementof works on ZO May I 985; an under-estimationof the lmplementationdeadl ine in the appraisal report. The deadli ne gi ven to the contractor tlas indeed 12 months i nstead of I monthsas estimated in the appraisalreport. BS0/0244M _10 3.3.5 tlorks on portlon 2Blfirst part: PK 3g4to PK 424conmenced In June 1986and were completed on ll February1987,2 monthslater, comparedto the contracturalttme lag of 8 months(ll April to ll December1986). 3.3.6 ilorkson portlon 28, secondpa;t: PK391.5 to PK394 (Codtctl t{o. 2, started on 5 December1985 and ïere completedon 17 February1987 In accordancewlth the lmplementatlonschedule of 2 112months. 3.3.7 lùcrkson portlon lA (40 km) flnancedby EDFcommenced In February 1985and were completed In January1987. Thevery long tlme of 22 monthscan' be explalnedby an Inadequacyof equipmentand a poor knowledgeof the fleld by the contractor. 3.3.S l{orkson portlon lC (139km), flnancedby the Arablenders cormenced ln January1985 and rere expectedto be completedln Decenber1988. The very long perlodof three years, ls explalnedby the samedlfflcultles encountered In the lmplementatlonof portlon lA. prnJe.te,rand actual tffiffiËii*tlon ,.h.duleof rorks for the ADFsectlon (portlon l8) DelayIn Projectlon Actual months l. Làunchlngof Internatlonal Early Jan. August1984 (7) competetlveblddlng | 984 2.. Drawlngup of short llst of Early Feb. June 1984 (4) englneerlng consul tant | 984 3. Invltatlon to tenderfor works 15 January July 1984 (5) supervlslon andInsPectlon I 984 4. Submlsslonof proposalsfor rorks Beglnnfngof 20110184 (6) andopenlng of tenders AprlI 1984 5. Analyslsof offers andselectlon Aprll/May Qct./Dec. (6) of fl rm I 984 I 984 6. Submlsslonof proPosalsfor r 5/04/84 Aug. 1984 (4) supervlslonand lnspectlon of worksand openlng of tenders 7. Approvaland signatureof vorks June/Aug. Dec. 841 (6) contract I 984 Feb.85 8. Analysis of proposals for supèr- ApriI /May Aug./Sept. (4) vlsiôn and lnspectionof works 1984 1984 9. Approvaland signatureof works June/APriI Oct. 841 (7) supervision & insPectioncontract I 984 MarchI 985 10. Commencementof works 0l /09/84 20/05/8s (8" 5) I I . Endof works Apri I I 985 03104186 (1?) BSO/02d4M il 3-4 Dffflcultles encountereddur:Lng proJect lmplementatlon 3.4.lThelmplementationofportlonlBencounteredafewdifficultiesas regards the lnstallation of the working slte for earthworks(many machine breakdowns, water supply problems (inadequate flow of boreholes) and dlfficulties ln the baslc stratum(regulating workshop). 1.4.2 The lmplementatlonof portion 28 encountereda few dtfflcultles as regards water supply (breakdownsand dl stance from borehole ând the ,; lmplementatlonof the roadwaymaln part: mixlng operatlonsrequired for a good blendlngof materlals also took moretlme than expected. 3.5 Costof proJect : 3.5.1 The cost of portlons lA, lB, and lC standsat FCFA10.712 blltlon; , thls amount fs to be comparedto the cost of the project at appralsal In : l{ovenber 1983 whtch },as FCFA20.923 bi I I ton. The comparlson of costs per componentls shownln the followlng table. Table3.2 ProJect cqst, çAlrparlson (ln FCFAbllllon) Cost Component At Appralsal Actual Difference I ' A. lùrrks 19.248 10.010x - 9.238 (-(48) B. Inspectlon& Supervlslon |.675 0,702x - 0.973 (- 58) Total 20.923 10.712 -l0.2ll (-49) X - Estlmatedcosts since portfon lC flnal accountfs not yet known. . lt, 3.5.2 The conslderable reductlon observed In the cost of the component concernlngthe inspectlonand supervislonof worksis a result of: the competltlonvhlch playedan lmportantrole ln the lnvitatlon of tenders; the reductlon of the technical characteristics of portion 28 : (reductlon of the width of the road from 7 m on a platform of l0 .: m to a roadwayof 6 m on a platform of 8 m; the Iow utilization of the provisionsfor physicalcontingencies and prïce escalation (the contract for portion lB works for examplelras firm and not subjectto review); a favourablechange ln the exchangerate betweenthe FUA,the l US$ and the FCFA,the currencyof the contracts, during the implementationof works. 3.5.3 Severalchanges in the initial lists of goodsand serviceswere made . thus enabling the construction of 3 additional portions fol lowing the Zinder-Agadezroad Portion 2A (34 km), financedby EDFfor a total amountof about TCFA2 billion; workswere completed in DecemberlgBB; BS9/02ri4l,l l2 Portion 28 (32.5K), financedby the ADFfor an amountof FCFA I .885 bi 1I lon; workswere compl eted i n FebruaryI 987; Portion 2c (75 km), financed by the Arab lenders for an amount of about FCFA4 billlon; workswill commencein Marchl9g9 and will be comp'letedin 0ctober1990. 3.5.4 The dlfferent loans granted madelt possible to construct 369 km of the road Insteadof the 215 km envisageddurlng proJect appralsal, l.e. 7ZI nore. 3.5 Dlsbursements 3.6.1 Table 3.2 belowmakes a comparlsonbetween the proJecteddisbursement schedule and actual dlsbursementof the componentsflnanced by ADF. Table3.3 Comparatlvedlsbursements schedule (ADF loan) (in FUAthousands) ProJected Actual | 984 8.57 (PortlonlB) r 985 1.43 (PortlonlB) l.7l (PortlonrB) r 986 3.89 (PortlonrB) | 986 2.l3 (Portlon28) | 987 Total 10.00(portlon lB) 10.00(portions lB+28)) 3.6.2 Glventhat the loan wasused to flnanceaddltlonal works amountlng to a total of FUA4.40 mllllon (Portlon28) a dlrect comparlsonof proJectedand actualdlsbursement of the entlre loanls not posslble. !.t.! Ëonversêly,the table shors that there ls a slgnlflcant dlfference betweenthe proJected dl sbursementschedule and the actual dl sbursement schedulefor portlon lB. It ls due to the reasonsmentloned In paragraph 3.3.4 namely,the fact that accountwas not takenof the prequallflcatlonof flrms, the under-estlmationof the timefor the tmplementationof uorks. 3.0.4 îhe actualexpendlture schedule for all componentsof the proJectand by sourceof flnanclngcould not be establishedowlng to the unavallabllityof Informatlonon the componentsfinanced by the other lenders. 3.7 Performanceof the consultantused by the borrower. the contractor and the Bank 3.7.1 The services of BCEOM/BELLERCONSULT/SCET TUNISIE Group of consultantswhlch carried out the inspectionand supervisionof works were satlsfactory. The consultant regularly preparedthe nnnth'lyprogress reports on the project as well as a very detaiied final report whichgave the ample informationrequired to preparethe PCR, BSO/0244M _ 13 3.1.2 MessrsSATOM Company, responsible for the implementationof the works of portion lB performedvery satisfactorily. No significant overrunof the quantiti es projectec, was noti ced and the good quali ty of works has been recognizedby all the parnters. That is whythe worksof portion 28 havebeen givenon the basisoi" codicils No. I and2 to this samecontractor. 3.7.3 0wlngto the fact that the ExecutingAgency had an adequatenumber of staff in terms of numbersand quallty, the borrowerr.ras able to carry out a close monltorlngof project lmplementation. 3.7.4,_ As regardsthe Bank, it monitoredthe implementationof this project normally:two (2) supervisionmissions were effected during implementation-and two (2) financiersmeetlngs were held on this project. BSO/02d4M - 14 4. ECONOMICANAIYSLS 4.I Introducilon ii 1:l.l During the economicappraisal of the project in 1983,althotgh the financing of the project only concerneda iirit part eli km) o? the Zinder-Agadezroad (424 km) the economicappraisal of the proJect consiOeràO the entlre road, i ts implementation i n two phasescame ai a result of financing constraints. In the case of the interim completionreport, the approachenvisaged durlng appraisalcannot be usedon accountof the'fact that the -lmplementatlonof the works of the first phaseof the proJect r1asnot completedat the time of the mission,rather, a generalvlew'of-the economic tlgld ln Niger s_incethe project appraisaland iti lmpacton the proJectarea will be glven. It will, thereforebe possibleto monitorthe evolirtiônof the basic data considered(traffic and costs for example)during appralsal rrhich couldbe comparedat their presentIevels during project lmplehentatlon. 4.2 Economlcsituation of the eountrJ before I 979-I 98â_*ld_at*Broject apprslsat 4.2.1 Between1979 and 1982, Nlger experlencedrapld growthowlng on one handto the exploitation of urantummines at a time that the prlce of uranlum was very favourable and on the other hand, to cl lmatic condltlons that favoured-a_g-rlcultural development. At that time, the country's economygretr substantlally recordlng an annualaverage growth rate of GDPof 8I" in ieal terms, and thls tl_asyery favourableto manylnvestments. ProJectlonsof the economicappralsal of the Zlnder-Agadezroad yere therefore madewlthln the context of a very favourableeconomy. 4.2.2 In 1983, the country enteredInto the sagglngphase of lts econonlc activlty linked to the sharp fall of the price of uranlumwhlch started In l98l and strengthenedby a perïodof droughtpersisted tlll 1984and whlchled to a reductlon of agricultural rau materials whlch affected the lndustrlal sector uslng these products. The fall in the price of uranlumled to a reduction of nearly 801 ln governmentrevenues; faced wlth such a sltuatlon, the authorlties of Niger appealedto TnternationalInstitutlons for help to contend wlth the effects of the recessionwhlch started wlth the mlnlng sub-sectorand was extendlng to the entire economy. 4.3 Overall ecqnomicevolullon of the road\ area of lmpact 4.3.1 The area of impactof the Zinder-Agadezroad is charactertlzedmainly by agrlcultural activities in the Zinder region, miningand migratoryherdlng in the Agadezregion. The main activities of this region have witnessedas inicated in paragraph4.2.2 substantial changesbetween l98l and 1984since they are directly concei-nedby the Arlit uraniummines which are found ln the road's area of impact. Moreover,this region was not spared by the drought which hi t the enti re country resulti ng i n the reduction of agricul tural produce and the partial destruction of I ivestock. These different factors cons.iderabiyreduced the levej of activity in the project's area of impact. 4.3.2 Moreover,given that the Nigeria ancJNiger frontier was closed in 1984, trade betweennorthern Nigeria and the east of Niger sloweddown very seriously and practically halted. For example,the regions of Maradi and Zinder, whichowing to their relative proximit.yto Nigeriantowns; Katsina (50 km) and Kano (149 km) (comparedto Ni.rmeythe capital: more than 900 km) BSO1O244t4 l5 benefltedfrom theseNlgerlan towns whtch are replenlshmentpoints for fuel ândmanufactured products such as cement,soap, Julce etc. Thecloslng of the frontler thereforecontrlbuted to a sharpfall ln trafflc ln the entire reglon of the project and this sltuation contlnuedtill 1986when the frontler Has re-opened(cf. paragraph4.4.1) 4.3.3 All these negatlvefactors ttere not taken Into accountdurlng the êconomlcapprâlsal of the project elther becausethey emergedonly after àppralsalor thelr lmpactsyere stlll not clearly dlscernableaf-the tlme of appralsal. 198411985were later regardedas the extremeyears of the economlc crlsls that shookNlger and whose flrst slgnsof rellef werenoticed only ln I 986. 4.4. Presentsltuatlon comparedto projectlons madeat appraisal Traffl c 4.4.1 In 1986, the Roadl,lanagement Bureau conducted a vehlcle count on the Zlnder-Agadezroad; the results of thls count revealed a substantlal drop fn the level of trafflc (about 207) comparedto the level the consultant estlmated In l98l . The reasons for thl s declIne are mentloned under paragraphs4.2 and 4.3 above (fall ln the prlce of uranlum, drought, the closlng of the frontler, and wldespreadeconomlc crlsls. To these causes should be addedanother reason dlrectly llnked to the proJect and due to the fact that the level of malntenanceglven to the sectlons of the road on whlch constructlon works vere not yet undertakenwas not enoughto prevent sandfrom comlngonto the road; thls In part, also explalns the reduction In the level of the trafflc. 4.4.2 Trafflc Informatlon avallable between1985 and 1988 ls lncomplete, however, the one relatlng to the Zlnder-Tanoutsectlon showsthat folloulng the constructlon of thls sectlon, trafflc lncreasedfrom 67 vehlcles/day In 1986to l4l vehlcles/daytn 1988. Thls shouldbe comparedwlth proJectlonsat the appralsal of the proJect whlch estlmated a trafflc level of about 220 vehlcles/dayIn 1987for thls samesectlon. Thls conslderablelncrease In the volumeof trafflc reflectlng the slze of tnducedtrafflc also correspondsylth the re-openlng of the Nlgerlan border. The informatlon relatlng to the Tanout-Agadexsectlon of whlch certaln portlons were constructed only partlally, have traffic levels of around 17 vehlcles/day ln 1985 and 29 vehlcles/day ln 1987, whlch should be comparedwlth the proJection of 47 vehlcles/dayIn 1987at the tlme of appraisal. Moreover,a trafflc of about 142 vehlcles/daybetween Zlnder and Agadezvlas antlclpated at the time ôf appralsal but no comparisoncan be madenow for want of information on this traffi c. 4.4.3 It fol lows from the above findings betweenthe level of traf,ftc projected at the time of appraisal and the actual si tuation norr (before proJect completion),that generallyspeaking, the presentlevel of traffic is clearly below the level projected at the tirne of appraisal and can be explained by the recent evolution of the different parametersof the road's area of impactand by the fact that the road is not yet completed. BSO/0244M l5 -.; Costs and beneflts of the project Costs and benefits 4.4.4. .Althougha pa.rtial estlmateof the cost of the first phaseof the project has been.madeln p-aragraph3.5 on the basls of provlslonai assumpilons on the cost of the_uncompletednorks of thls flrst phaie (for examplepàrfion l), lt-seems..prematureto attempt'at thls present itage of economicairalysls to estlmate the actual econoniccost of thls-phaseof-the proJect especlilly as only the contract on portion lB Q7 km out of a total of It5 km)'ls flrin and lrrevocable. Therefore no comparisoncan be madebetveen the economlc cost of the proJect at appralsal estimatedat FUA 18.4 nrlllion (for the lmplementationof the flrst phase)and the presentpartlal cost. 4.4.S Themlsslon vas able to obtain informationon vehlcle operatlngcosts as vell as on the malntenanceof tarred and earth roads ln the country. fnts Informatlon whtch is not peculiar to the proposedroad but rrhlch ls prepared on regular basls ln Nlger could be used durlng the preparatlon of the completlonreport In the absenceof informationpeculiar to the road. 4.4.6 It follows from the dlfferent findlngs that it ls stlll prematureto estlmate at the present lnterlm stage, the beneflts of the proJect uhlch are normally estlmated on the basls of the comparlsonof the total costs and benef|ts of the proJect In the sItuatlon "ylth" and "wlthout" the project. Slnce these costs and beneflts are not yet deflnltlve oulng to the partlal lmplementatlonof the proJect, lt vould be rlsky to establlsh newproJecttons In thls Interlm report. It has therefore'beenagreed that thls report should be I lmlted to the present flndlngs on the trafflc and the partlal lmplementatloncost of the proJect pendlng lts completlon In order to establlsh lts read lmpacton the economyof Nlger. BSO/O2ri4M -17 5. CONCLUSIONSAND RECO-IMENDAÏIONS 5.1 Resrrltscomnared to obiectives 5. I . I Technlcal ly speaking, the proJect deslgn at appraisal has not undergoneany changesduring its lmplementation. Sections 2A, 28 and 2C flnancedon the unexpendedbalance of the loans had a reductionmade in the rfdth of the roadwayfron 7 metres on a platform of l0 metres to 6 metres, on a platform of I metres. Thls reductionls justified by a lower traffic on the sectlons of the second phase. The lmplementationperiod of portlon lB flnanced by ADFwas under-estimated(and workswere completedl2 monthsbehlnd schedule. Thls delay is especlallyattrlbutable to the fact that the time requlred for the procedureInvolving the pre-qualification of contractors rras not taken lnto account,to the difficultles encounteredby the contractorsto commencework raptdly and to an under-estimatlonof the duration of works. Theworks done are of goodquality. 5.1.2 Flnanclally, althoughthe lmplementationof portlon lB wasdelayed by 12 months,lts lmplementationcost only represents55% of the cost estimated at appralsal. Thls substantial difference comesfrom the competltionthat cameInto play durlng the launchingof tenders, from the reductlon of the technlca'l characterlstlcs of portion 28 and the non utlllzatlon of the physlcal and prlce escalatlon contlngencies(the contract for workswas firm andlrrevocable). 5.1.3 Fromthe economicpoint of vlew, althoughthe lmplementatloncost of the proJect only representedhalf of the cost estlmatedat appralsal, the trafflc forecast was so optlmstic that the proJect's return wlll be affected favourably (cost reductlon) and unfavourably ( I evel of traffl c below forecast). The combinationof these two tendencfeswill result in a ney return whlch could only be estimatedor recalculatedon the completlonof works,once the Informatlonavailable has beenstudled. 5.2 Lessonsfrom the ptoject The followlng Iessonsmay be learnt from the lmplementationof the proJect: l. The pre-quallficatlon of the flrms delayedproJect commencemeàt by 7 months. l,,lethi nk that for tradi tional road proJects which do not require the intervention of specialized firms, the pre-qualificationof firms doesnot seemto be necessary. 2. The lmportanceof project monitoring. Indeed, the supervision missions and even more the meetingsheld by the financiers enabledadequate technical and financial solutionsto be found and this led to the constructionof 369 km insteadof 215km of the Zinder-Agadezroad wi thin a reasonabletime period. BSO/A244t4 {3 3. Good admlnl stration of a project by the borrower: thl s adminlstratlon, which ls well organlzedand has a competent staff has greatly contributed to the lmplementationof the proJectundtr goodcondltions. 4. The developmentof the overalI economic envI ronment of the country and ln partlcular the proJect's area of impacthas been so considerableslnce the appraisalof the project that it would be expedlent that the project executlng agency and the consultant responsiblefor the inspectlon and supervlslonof uorks shouldhenceforth be preparedto wrlte a completionreport as soonas the proJect is completed. BS0/0244M AXIIEID T t' , :l t/i yi' a:- ii /:: {û â t a a \: r o ! "/ ,a- -rO (,a \'-€/ .J. ! D 2 o. .t x {t ! o I L T F it ? / .::. 6 ' :l o .ij- --'--{'--J 1t (, 1 IU t: : .!, q ,El I I rul ul ..aaaaaaa :l ,il c o I o (t(r â il r Ê. (,- ït ! ta a o t a a I !t t t" t rl æ.o irt = :i o ll ;::-: - !:r -f E tk __f' it;l AIfiEF Z REPUBLIOUTDU IIIGER - tatl PR(UETDT ROUTTZII{DIR AGADET l'Algèric Arl;t RAPPORTD'ACHEYETIT}IT DUPRû'ET Cartede lo zonedu orolet /, rc.r t.lû€ AGAD€Z 2--""-" PK424 i---.------, LOT"zB(FAD) REALISAÎIONSDES T}IFFEREI{ÎS PK391 LOIS DE I^A ROUÎEZIITDER-AGADEZ LOT 2A (REEL[,6SEÎ ESIII{EES) .PK3s6 Lot lA : 2t8sà rl87 (FADI LO-T-38 Lot 18 : 2l8Sà 4186 pK Lot lC : u83 à t2188 30t Lot 2A : | l88 à, tzl88 Aderbrr t.aol toT 2c L'oc 28 : 1t86à 2187 Abolol laÈ. 2C t 12188à 6leo .1lr fohO.a PR226 Lot 38 : 6189' 7t90 LOl |c PK87 ror | 8(FA PK tO .arr N.octr tollA Cov.é lettcogrt ZfN-tR PKO (Pærc.l N .96. f"lrrrroh ç Source : Hission FAI) NIGERIA