PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN IRELAND 26th February 2016

European Elections monitor Prime Minister Edna Kenny’s comes top in opinion polls two weeks before Irish general elections.

Corinne Deloy Abstract: On 3rd February, Irish Prime Minister (Taoiseach) Edna Kenny (Fine Gael, FG) went to Aras an Uachterain, the official residence of President of the Republic Michael Higgins (Labour Party) to ask him to dissolve the lower chamber of Parliament, the Dail Eireann. This dissolution leads to the Analysis calling of a general election, now set for 26th February. A few months after Greece, Portugal and Spain, Ireland, a country that benefitted in 2010 from an international aid plan of €85 billion from the IMF and the European Union, is therefore, in turn, called to the polls. The election will be focussed on one main question: what should be done with the benefits of the economic recovery?

According to the latest opinion poll carried out by the The campaign includes 2 televised debates: the debate Paddy Power institute and published on 10th February, on 15th February will bring together all party leaders Fine Gael is set to win 30% of the vote, ahead of Fianna on the TV channel RTE and on 23rd only those of Fine Fail (FF) with 18% of the vote and Sinn Fein (SF), 17%. Gael, Fianna Fail, the Labour party and Sinn Fein will be Labour is set to win 8% of the vote. All the other parties included in the debate. are on less than 5%. Fine Gael will probably therefore have difficult in Fine Gael dominates the debates repeating its coalition with the Labour Party. In view of these polls, three potential scenarios become clear: The electoral campaign is short (three weeks), which the formation by Fine Gael of a minority government should be to Fine Gael’s benefit. This party has two which would have to deal with Parliament, the decision advantages over its rivals. Firstly, a clear message, “Our to extend the current government coalition to include proposal is to renew the government formed by Fine other parties or independent MPs and, finally, the Gael and the Labour Party” is outgoing Taoiseach Enda calling of another general election in order to obtain a Kenny’s repeated message. Then, Fine Gael is virtually real majority. The formation of a Fine Gael-Fianna Fail the only one to offer a political vision for Ireland. The coalition would appear highly improbable in view of the party, which has chosen as its campaign slogan “Our number of times the 2 parties have gone head to head hard work has paid off, let’s keep the recovery going” over the course of the past 5 years. Since 1989, Ireland hope to win 30% of the vote on 26th February. has always been run by a coalition government. “2016 could be the year of an electoral earthquake in Ireland “Five years’ ago our economy was on a cliff edge. due to the emergence of small parties and the presence Now our public finances are back on the rails, we of many independents” said Muiris MacCartaigh, have returned to growth and the country is no longer lecturer in political science at Queen’s University, dependent on international aid” points out , Belfast, who believes that the next government will be who is campaigning on the country’s good economic difficult to form. results. Ireland is indeed the country with the highest

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growth rate in the European Union, with 4.5% forecast ready to give their vote to new political parties such this year after 6% in 2015. Its budget is now back as the Alliance Against Austerity-People Before Profit in balance ( even voted for a stimulus budget, (AAA-PBP), the Social Democrats, a party founded in validated by just a few weeks’ ago), public 2015 by three independent MPs Stephen Donnelly, 02 debt is down (107.75% in 2015 compared to 111.15% Catherine Murphy and Roisin Shortall, on the left of in 2011), consumption is up and unemployment is the political spectrum or Ireland, a right-wing falling (8.6% in February 2016 compared to 10.1% in party led by Lucinda Creighton, a former member of February 2015) and is even at its lowest rate since Fine Gael. This party is in favour of the introduction 2008. On 5th February the Fitch rating agency raised of a single rate tax of 23% for VAT, income tax and Ireland’s rating, giving it an A. corporate tax and for the three strikes law, which So the outgoing Taoiseach presents himself as the allows the courts to pronounce life prison sentences guarantor of the necessary stability and continuity on criminals convicted for the third time of an offence required in order to finish the work in hand. and/or a crime. There are numerous independent candidates in the Enda Kenny promises more jobs, and therefore higher running for the general elections. Together they are wages, and more public services. He is presenting a credited with 35 seats. programme of economic stimulus, focussed notably on health and housing, which are two of the main concerns Sinn Fein, which has recently moved towards the centre, of the Irish people. Health minister Leo Varadkar (FG) is up in the opinion polls. This extreme left-wing party has thus promised to introduce objectives in terms could become Ireland’s second party, which would be a of waiting times in hospitals and doctors’ surgeries, first. Sinn Fein won 15.2% of first preference votes and to reintroduce the reimbursement of dental care, to 159 seats (+105) in the local elections held on 23rd extend maternity leave and to develop structures for May 2014, a remarkable performance. The two parties the elderly. A vast programme to build social housing in government lost seats in these elections: -105 for is also amongst Fine Gael’s projects. The party is also Fine Gael (24% of the vote, 235 seats) and 81 for the promising to reduce taxes and to bring back to Ireland, Labour Party (7.2% of the vote and 51 seats). Fianna by 2021, 70,000 people who have left the country. Fail came top in the elections with 25.3% of the vote 5,000 returns are already planned for this year. (267 seats). “The general election on 26th February gives people Although opinion polls put Fine Gael well in the lead the choice between a fair and egalitarian society or for the general elections of 26th February, the Labour the continuation of the policies implemented by Enda Party, its partner in government, and drastically down Kenny’s government over these past 5 years” declared in the opinion polls compared to its results in 2011 Sinn Fein leader, Gerry Adams. The party could suffer (8% in 2016 compared to 19.5% in 2011), has many somewhat, however, from its links with the Irish questions to ask itself. A large part of its electorate Republican Army (IRA), a republican paramilitary blame the party for not having defended the welfare organisation which is fighting for the unification of state and for having agreed to austerity measures over Ireland. the past 5 years. Finally, Fianna Fail is still relatively low in the opinion Other political forces in play polls. The party hopes to win between 35 and 40 seats on 26th February. Many Irish people consider it to be The policy undertaken by Enda Kenny’s government responsible for the serious economic crisis of 2010. has not been without pain. It has left its mark on a This general election is, moreover, the first in Irish section of the Irish population who have had to accept history in which this party is not amongst the top two. many sacrifices and many of whom say they are now Although it is critical of government policy and of what

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it calls the abandonment of public service, Fianna Fail sometimes regret that this method of voting obliges is not giving any clear message and is not offering them to devote a great deal of time to the individual any policy as an alternative to the one that has been demands of their fellow citizens and prevents them implemented by Fine Gael and the Labour Party over from concentrating on national political matters. the past 5 years. A new law voted in 2012 now obliges political parties to present at least 30% of women (40% within 7 years) 03 The Irish political system in general elections on penalty of seeing the grant they receive from the State reduced by 50%. The (parliament) has two houses. It comprises the Dail Eireann (House of Representatives) The Seanad Eireann, parliament’s upper house, which, to date, had 166 members elected for 5 years comprises 60 members, 43 of whom are elected from 43 circumscriptions. The number of members by proportional representation (using the single has now been reduced and, on 26th February, the Irish vote system) by five major bodies made up of MPs people (and any British people living in Ireland and (outgoing senators and newly elected MPs) and local registered on electoral lists) will elect 158 teachtai elected representatives (county councillors and county dala (MPs) in 40 circumscriptions (3 less than in the town councillors) representing various sectors of elections on 25th February 2011). society (culture, education, agriculture, work, industry, Each circumscription sends 3, 4 or 5 MPs. These are commerce and public administration). 11 members elected by proportional representation using the single of the Seanad Eireann are appointed by the Prime transferable vote system. The voter chooses from a list Minister and 6 by citizens registered on electoral lists of candidates the one (or ones) to whom he/she wants with a degree from the National University of Ireland or to give his/her vote, by order of preference. The voter the University of Dublin (Trinity College). writes the number 1 against his/her first preference The Seanad Eireann, which will not be dissolved before candidates and then, if he/she wishes, 2, 3, 4, etc. the election of the new lower house, is traditionally against the names of the other candidates on the list. elected at the latest 90 days after the Dail Eireann. Calculation of the electoral quotient, i.e. of the minimum number of votes that a candidate must obtain in order The Irish government can comprise up to 15 members, to be elected, is the first operation carried out when 2 of whom can be members of the Seanad Eireann, and votes are being counted. This quotient corresponds to all the others must be elected MPs. all the votes cast divided by the number of seats to be filled (3, 4 or 5 depending on the circumscription) plus 7 political parties are currently represented in the Dail one. Any candidate who collects this number of votes Eireann: is elected. Any excess votes that he/she has obtained – Fine Gael (FG) (Gaels Clan), outgoing Prime Minister are then distributed between the candidates chosen in Enda Kenny’s party, was created in 1933 and is located second place. on the centre-right of the political spectrum, it has 76 seats. The Irish are very proud of their voting system, which – The Labour Party, which is a member of the outgoing they share with only two other countries in the world governmental coalition, founded in 1912 and led by (Malta and Australia), to the point that they have Joan Burton, Tanaiste (deputy Prime Minister) and twice refused (1959 and 1968) to have it changed. Minister for Social Protection, has 37 seats. The single transferable vote system was written into – Fianna Fail (FF) (Soldiers of destiny in Gaelic), a the Irish Constitution in 1937 and its modification right wing party founded in 1926 and led by Micheal or abandonment are possible only by means of a Martin, has 20 seats. referendum. Allowing for true representation of political – Sinn Fein (SF) (Ourselves in Gaelic) has the particular parties, the transferable vote system is sometimes characteristic of existing (and participating in elections) criticised for the high degree of competition that it in two European Union States: Ireland and the United gives rise to between candidates in the same party. MPs Kingdom. Sinn Fein is an extreme left-wing nationalist

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party led by Gerry Adams, and has 14 seats. The Irish also elect their President of the Republic – The Socialist Party (SP), an extreme left-wing party by direct universal suffrage. However the President has 2 seats. has only a power of representation. Elected every 7 – People Before Profits (PBP), an extreme left-wing years by direct universal suffrage, his mandate can be 04 party, has 2 seats. renewed only once. The current Head of State, Michael – Workers and Unemployed Action (WUA), an extreme Higgins, has been in office since 27th October 2011. left-wing party led by Seamus Healey, has 1 seat.

Note on the results of the general election held in Ireland on 25th February 2001

Turnout : 70%

Number of first Percentage of Political parties preference votes Number of seats votes collected obtained

Fine Gael (FG) 801 628 36,10 76

Labour Party (Lab) 431 796 19,50 37

Fianna Fail (FF) 387 358 17,50 20

Sinn Fein (SF) 220 661 9,90 14

Socialist Party (SP) 26 770 1,20 2

People Before Profits (PBP) 21 551 1 2

Workers and Unemployed Action 8 818 0,40 1 (WUA)

Others 52 074 2,20 0

Independants 269 703 12,10 1

Source : http://www.oireachtas.ie/documents/publications/2011_Electoral_Handbookrev.pdf

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Fine Gael tops in the Irish general election but the next government 05 might be difficult to form

Note on the results of the general election held in Ireland on 25th February 2001 Abstract: Turnout : 70% During the general election that took place on 26th February in Ireland, Fine Gael (DG (the Clan of the Gaels), the party of outgoing Prime Minister (Taoiseach) Enda Kenny, won 25.52% of the vote and took 47 seats according Results Number of first Percentage of Political parties preference votes Number of seats to still partial results (10 seats remain to be distributed). votes collected obtained However one government partner, Labour, led by Joan Burton, Deputy Prime Minister (Tanaist) and Social Fine Gael (FG) 801 628 36,10 76 Protection Minister only won 6.9% and 6 seats.

Labour Party (Lab) 431 796 19,50 37 Renua Ireland, a right wing party led by Lucinda Creighton, former Fine Gael member won 2.81% and no seats.

Fianna Fail (FF) 387 358 17,50 20

Sinn Fein (SF) 220 661 9,90 14

Socialist Party (SP) 26 770 1,20 2

People Before Profits (PBP) 21 551 1 2 Fianna Fail (FF) (Soldiers of Destiny), a right wing party This is how fragmented the Irish electorate has become Workers and Unemployed Action led by Micheal Martin, is rising from its ashes and came since the financial and economic crisis in 2008. Between 8 818 0,40 1 (WUA) second behind Fine Gael winning 24.3% of the vote 1930 and 2007 Fianna Fail and Fine Gael dominated Others 52 074 2,20 0 and 43 seats, ie more than forecast by the polls. The the country’s political landscape, which they governed Independants 269 703 12,10 1 party seems to have succeeded in attracting part of alternately. During the previous general elections, on the Labour electorate which was disappointed by the 25th February 2011, Fianna Fail achieved the lowest Source : http://www.oireachtas.ie/documents/publications/2011_Electoral_Handbookrev.pdf latter’s work in government. result in its history (17.5% of the vote). “2016 might be that of an electoral earthquake in Sinn Fein (SF) (Ourselves), a far left nationalist party Ireland due to the emergence of small parties and the led by Gerry Adams won the highest score in its history: presence of many independents,” indicated Muiris Mac 13.8% of the vote and 22 seats. Undoubtedly the party Cartaigh, lecturer in Political Science at the Queens has suffered due to the result of far left parties such as University Belfast prior to the election. the Alliance against Austerity-the People before Profits (AAA-PBP) which won 3.9% of the vote and five seats Turnout fell by five points in comparison with the general and also the Social Democrats, a party founded in 2015 elections of 25th February 2011 and lay at 65.2%. by three independent MPs Stephen Donnelly, Catherine Murphy and Roisin Shortall, which won 3% of the vote “It is an extremely disappointing day for the and three seats and the Green Party, which won 2.72% government,” declared Fine Gael Secretary General and 2 seats. Tim Curran. “Although the exit polls are correct we are a long way off being able to form a government,” he Finally the independent alliance (IA) won 4.2% of the added. “I would like to think that it will be possible to vote and four seats but the independent candidates did form a government that can face the many challenges especially well winning 13% and 16 seats. A result that that lie ahead,” indicated outgoing Prime Minister Enda one might analyse as a rejection of the political system. Kenny. This might be difficult to do however since the outgoing Taoiseach will having to bring various

26TH FEBRUARY 2016 / PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN IRELAND / FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN Political issues Parliamentary Elections in Ireland 26th February 2016

General elections results 26th February 2016 in Ireland

Turnout : 65.2%

Number of first % of first Political parties preference votes preference votes No. of seats won 06 won won

Fine Gael (FG) 544 140 25.52 124

Fianna Fail (FF) 519 356 24.35 42

Sinn Fein (SF) 295 319 13.85 22

Labour Party (Lab) 140 898 6.61 6

Independents 242 016 13 16

Independent Alliance (IA) 4.2 4

Alliance against Austerity-the 84 168 3.95 5 People before Profits (AAA-PBP)

Social Democrats (SD) 64 094 3 3

Green Party (GP) 57 999 2.72 2

Renua Ireland 46 552 2.18 0

Others 110 681 4.82 0

Source : http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/

personalities together, who have often been elected in Could Enda Kenny become the first Taoiseach from terms of their opposition to the outgoing government. Fine Gael to be re-elected as he would like it? We The Irish have therefore sanctioned the policy cannot be sure of this. With 25.52% of the vote his undertaken by the outgoing government, which party won its third lowest result since 1948. This result campaigned on its socio-economic result and stood as is an impediment to the formation of a stable majority the guarantor of the stability necessary to complete and of a government team. “With 47 or 50 seats, Fine ongoing work. Economic recovery does not seem to Gael will not have enough MPs with the small parties have been perceived by all, and many Irish citizens to achieve the 80 he needs for an absolute majority in have suffered from the policy undertaken by the the Dail Eireann,” indicated Michael Marsh, professor government (cuts in the number of civil servants by at . But what are the other 12% between 2008 and 2015, a 20% contraction in initiatives? The other parties have not won. wages, reductions in social benefits, increases in VAT and taxes on alcohol and cigarettes, the creation of a There are three possible options: water tax). Moreover public services are still inadequate and the housing crisis is still of concern (there are an • The re-election of the outgoing government estimated 700 families living in hostels and hotels and comprising Fine Gael, the Labour Party and widened some 130,000 are waiting to be housed), jobs are to independents and the “small parties”; precarious and wages low. 16% of Irish workers are living below the poverty line. • The formation of a “grand coalition” between the two rival parties, which have alternately governed “People do not compare their present living standard Ireland since1932, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail; with that of 2011 when the Fine Gael and Labour Party coalition entered office, but to their life prior to the • And finally the organisation of another general crisis,” indicated John O’Hagan, Professor in Economy election. at Trinity College.

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Prime Minister Enda Kenny totally ruled out the idea of months after the election, has still not managed to any grand coalition just days before the election, accusing appoint a Prime Minister,. Fianna Fail of having “allowed the country’s economy to “We could be without a government for a long time fall into ruin” at the end of the 2000’s. Micheal Martin, because the present coalition cannot return to office Fianna Fail’s leader ruled out any alliance with Fine Gael. with this result,” indicated Eoin O’Malley, a political 07 The two main Irish parties are both close (regarding analyst from Dublin City University. “I believe that we ideology and programme) and yet have been rivals shall have either a Fine-Gael-Fianna Fail coalition which since the civil war of 1922-1923. In addition to this they is highly unlikely or new elections,” he concluded. Adrian might hesitate since their alliance would make Sinn Fein Kavanagh, a professor at Maynooth University declared the country’s main opposition party. Its leader, Gerry “the option which we seem to have is a Fine Gael-Fianna Adams, has already stressed that a coalition like this Fail coalition since the gap between the two parties is would comprise the “most conservative” government much less than forecast, which places them on an equal that Ireland has ever had. footing.”

Negotiations to form the next Irish government promise The parties have until 10th March ie two weeks, to form therefore to be long. The Celtic republic is now in a the next Irish government, the date of parliament’s similar position to that of Spain, which, more than two return to session.

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