The Ohio Poll*

THE OHIO POLL*

FOR RELEASE By: Eric W. Rademacher, PhD October 15, 2010 Kimberly Downing, PhD Institute for Policy Research (513) 556-3304

KASICH AND PORTMAN EXPAND LEADS AS CAMPAIGNS HEAD FOR HOME STRETCH

Cincinnati, OH--With less than three weeks remaining until Election Day, Republicans John Kasich and Rob Portman have expanded their leads in the races for Ohio governor and United States Senate.

These findings are based on the latest Ohio Poll, conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati between October 8 and 13, 2010. This release includes data comparisons with the Ohio Newspaper Poll, which is also conducted by the Institute for Policy Research and utilizes the same polling methodology as the Ohio Poll.

2010 OHIO GUBERNATORIAL RACE: KASICH 51% - STRICKLAND 43%

The latest Ohio Poll finds former U.S. Rep. John Kasich (R) leads Governor Ted Strickland (D) by eight percentage points in the race for Ohio governor. Fifty-one percent of Ohio likely voters say they will vote for Kasich, 43 percent say they will vote for Strickland and six percent are undecided or intend to vote for another candidate on the ballot.

Most likely voters - 85 percent - say they will "definitely vote" for their current choice for governor on Election Day. Kasich leads Strickland, 56 to 41 percent, among these voters. The remaining 15 percent of voters say they "might change their mind" about their current choice. Among these voters, Strickland leads Kasich, 55 to 36 percent.

2010 OHIO U.S. SENATE RACE: PORTMAN 58% - FISHER 36%

The Poll also finds former U.S. Rep. Rob Portman (R) with a wide lead over Lt. Governor Lee Fisher (D) for U.S. Senate. Fifty-eight percent of Ohio likely voters say they will vote for Portman, 36 percent say they will vote for Fisher and six percent are undecided or intend to vote for another candidate.

Most likely voters - 86 percent - say they will "definitely vote" for their current U.S. Senate candidate choice. Portman leads Fisher, 63 to 37 percent, among these voters. The remaining 14 percent of voters say they "might change their mind" about their current choice. Portman also leads Fisher among these voters, 55 to 45 percent.

*We ask users to properly attribute this copyrighted information to the “Ohio Poll,” sponsored by the University of Cincinnati. The name, “Ohio Poll,” is registered with the Ohio Secretary of State. The Ohio Poll, Sponsored by the University of Cincinnati Page 2 of 3

THE 2010 OHIO ELECTORATE

In the fall of 2008, the Ohio Poll found self-identified Democrats outmatched Republicans in excitement about the election and intent to turn out and vote. This ultimately led to Democratic gains and a victory for President Barack Obama in Ohio.

This current snapshot of the Ohio electorate finds that as of mid-October 2010, the tide has turned. Self- identified Republicans now hold an advantage over Democrats in both excitement and turn out intent, resembling advantages Democrats held in 2008. Some of this excitement is fueled by "Tea Party" supporters, most of whom favor Republican candidates and self-identify more closely with Republicans than Democrats.

As we head into the final weeks of the campaign, efforts will shift toward getting voters to the polls (both early and on Election Day). The quality and intensity of these get out the vote efforts by Democratic and Republican campaigns will go a long way toward determining whether the final electorate resembles this mid-October snapshot of likely voters.

Ohio Poll Methodology

These findings are based on the most recent Ohio Poll conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati between October 8 and October 13, 2010. The Ohio Poll includes interviews with both landline telephone users and those who rely solely on a cell phone for telephone service.

A random sample of 705 likely voters from throughout the state was interviewed by landline and cellular telephone. In 95 of 100 cases, the statewide estimates will be accurate to plus or minus 3.7 percent.

In addition to sampling error, there are other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, or context effects that can introduce error or bias.

Reported percentages may not total to 100% due to rounding.

Results reported for subgroups have potential for somewhat larger variation than those for the entire population.

Respondents to the Ohio Poll were asked:

• “Suppose the election for governor was being held today and the candidates were: Ted Strickland, the Democrat, and John Kasich, the Republican. Which would you vote for?”

• “Suppose the election for U.S. Senate was being held today and the candidates were: Lee Fisher, the Democrat, and Rob Portman, the Republican. Which would you vote for?”

The Ohio Poll, Sponsored by the University of Cincinnati Page 3 of 3

2010 Ohio Gubernatorial Election (Likely Voters)

May September October 8-13, 2010 2010 2010* (Latest) John Kasich (R) 44% 49% 51% Ted Strickland (D) 49 45 43 Other 1 ** 1 Undecided 6 5 5

(N=) (621) (805) (663)

*Ohio Newspaper Poll, sponsored by The Akron Beacon Journal, The Canton Repository, The Cincinnati Enquirer, The Columbus Dispatch, Dayton Daily News, The Plain Dealer, The Toledo Blade and Youngstown Vindicator.

** Less than one percent.

2010 Ohio U.S. Senate Election (Likely Voters)

May September October 8-13, 2010 2010 2010* (Latest) Rob Portman (R) 46% 55% 58% Lee Fisher (D) 47 40 36 Other 1 ** 1 Undecided 6 5 5

(N=) (613) (799) (652)

** Less than one percent.

2010 Ohio Gubernatorial Election -- Strickland v. Kasich (Likely Voters)

STRICKLAND KASICH OTHER DON'T KNOW Ohio Likely Voters 43% 51% 1% 5%

Level of Candidate Commitment Definitely Voting for Candidate Choice 41% 56% 0% 3% Might Change Mind About Candidate Choice 55% 36% 9%

Age of Respondent 18 to 29 44% 52% 4% 30 to 45 43% 50% 1% 6% 46 to 64 44% 51% 1% 4% 65 and over 41% 52% 0% 7%

Race African-American* 81% 14% 1% 4% White 39% 55% 1% 6%

Sex Male 40% 54% 0% 5% Female 45% 48% 1% 5%

Education Less than high school* 66% 34% High school graduate 43% 51% 0% 6% Some college 40% 53% 2% 5% College graduate 43% 52% 6%

Geographical Region Northeast Ohio 47% 49% 0% 4% Northwest Ohio 39% 45% 4% 12% Central Ohio 49% 48% 3% Southeast Ohio* 47% 45% 8% Southwest Ohio 33% 62% 5%

Partisan Identification Democrat 86% 10% 0% 4% Independent* 40% 39% 6% 14% Republican 9% 86% 5%

Support/Oppose Tea Party Movement Support 11% 85% 0% 4% Oppose 90% 8% 1% Neither 41% 51% 1% 7%

Ideology Liberal 84% 13% 3% Moderate 50% 42% 1% 7% Conservative 19% 75% 1% 5% Ohio Poll #122, October 2010 *Note: Number of respondents is 75 or less. Additional caution should Institute for Policy Research be taken when interpreting the results for this subgroup University of Cincinnati because of the potential for larger variation. 2010 Ohio U.S. Senate Election -- Fisher v. Portman (Likely Voters)

FISHER PORTMAN OTHER DON'T KNOW Ohio Likely Voters 36% 58% 1% 5%

Level of Candidate Commitment Definitely Voting for Candidate Choice 37% 63% Might Change Mind About Candidate Choice 45% 55%

Age of Respondent 18 to 29* 43% 52% 5% 30 to 45 39% 56% 2% 4% 46 to 64 36% 57% 1% 6% 65 and over 32% 65% 3%

Race African-American* 79% 8% 2% 10% White 32% 63% 1% 4%

Sex Male 35% 61% 0% 3% Female 37% 56% 1% 6%

Education Less than high school* 61% 29% 10% High school graduate 38% 55% 8% Some college 33% 61% 3% 4% College graduate 35% 61% 0% 3%

Geographical Region Northeast Ohio 42% 54% 1% 4% Northwest Ohio 28% 58% 4% 9% Central Ohio 44% 52% 4% Southeast Ohio* 37% 57% 6% Southwest Ohio 25% 70% 5%

Partisan Identification Democrat 79% 15% 1% 6% Independent* 26% 58% 6% 10% Republican 4% 93% 3%

Support/Oppose Tea Party Movement Support 8% 90% 2% Oppose 82% 13% 1% 5% Neither 33% 61% 1% 5%

Ideology Liberal 81% 15% 4% Moderate 40% 54% 2% 4% Conservative 13% 82% 1% 5% Ohio Poll #122, October 2010 *Note: Number of respondents is 75 or less. Additional caution should Institute for Policy Research be taken when interpreting the results for this subgroup University of Cincinnati because of the potential for larger variation.