Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, February 17, 2021
FROM EQUITY REPORT KEY INDEX KEY INDEX Chg Ytd Vol Chg Ytd Vol Automotive: Correction in car sales in Jan 2021 Close Close (OVERWEIGHT) (%) (%) (US$ m) (%) (%) (US$ m) After gradual increases in the monthly car sales over the past seven Asean - 5 Asean - 5 months, domestic car sales declined by 8.0% mom to 52,910 units Indonesia 6,223 0.3 4.1 689 Indonesia 6,134 0.1 (1.0) 318 (-34.2% yoy) in Jan 21. Astra International (ASII IJ.BUY.TP: Thailand 1,508 (0.6) 4.1 3,549 Thailand 1,568 (0.1) 0.2 1,454 IDR7,800) managed to maintain its market share above 50% in Jan Philippines 6,991 (1.3) (2.1) 305 Philippines 7,855 (0.3) 5.2 87 21. While the Jan 21 sales volume was slightly below our expectation Malaysia 1,599 0.2 (1.7) 895 Malaysia 1,562 (0.5) (7.6) 338 (7% of our 2021 target of 780,000 units), we believe that domestic Singapore 2,925 (0.0) 2.9 471 Singapore 3,173 (0.5) 3.4 908 economic recovery as well as luxury car tax incentives will help to Regional Regional improve car sales in the coming months. Maintain OVERWEIGHT China 3,655 1.4 5.2 72,368 China 2,885 0.3 15.7 28,889 with Astra International as our top pick. Hong Kong 30,174 0.4 10.8 11,920 Hong Kong 26,391 (0.2) 2.1 9,093 To see the full version of this report, please click here Japan 29,520 (0.1) 7.6 17,083 Japan 23,380 (0.6) 16.8 10,278 Adaro Energy: Flattish 2021 coal production target Korea 3,101 0.5 7.9 16,614 Korea 2,068 (0.8) 1.3 3,790 (ADRO IJ. IDR 1,210 BUY.TP IDR 1,800) Taiwan 15,802 0.6 7.3 9,969 Taiwan 11,532 0.2 18.5 3,534 Adaro Energy (ADRO) reported coal production of 13.4mn tons (- India 51,544 0.0 7.9 671 India 40,675 (0.3) 12.8 495 2.8% qoq, -3.5% yoy) in 4Q20. Cumulatively, coal production went Nasdaq 14,095 0.5 9.4 214,897 Nasdaq 8,521 (0.6) 28.4 116,797 Dow Jones 31,458 0.1 2.8 11,180 Dow Jones 27,503 (1.0) 17.9 11,490 down by 6.0% yoy to 54.5mn tons in 2020, which is slightly better than the initial target of 52-54mn tons. Going into 2021, ADRO CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE targets flattish coal production of around 52-54mn tons and w-w m-m ytd w-w m-m ytd Rate Rate operational EBITDA of USD750-900mn with a stripping ratio at 4.8x. (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Maintain BUY. Rupiah Rp/1US$ 13,973 0.3 1.1 0.5 Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14,115 (0.2) (0.7) 1.9 To see the full version of this report, please click here BI7DRRR % 3.75 - - - BI7DRRR % 5.00 - (0.3) (1.0)
10y Gov Indo bond 6.22 0.1 0.0 0.3 10y Gov Indo bond 7.16 0.1 0.2 (0.9) Bukit Asam: Better coal prices improved profits (PTBA IJ.IDR 2,600 BUY.TP IDR 3,600) HARD COMMODITY HARD COMMODITY d-d m-m ytd d-d m-m ytd We met with Bukit Asam (PTBA) and came away with the following Unit Price Unit Price takeaways: a) solid coal sales volume in 4Q20 thanks to stronger (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) coal demand from China, b) the expectation of a recovery in coal Coal US$/ton 87 0.1 1.1 8.6 Coal US$/ton 67 (0.3) 0.2 (34.0) production in 2021, and c) the continuation of infrastructure Gold US$/toz 1,824 (0.1) (1.6) (3.9) Gold US$/toz 1,478 (0.0) (2.1) 15.2 development to support rising production. Given better production Nickel US$/mt.ton 18,525 (0.3) 5.2 11.9 Nickel US$/mt.ton 13,315 (2.5) (20.7) 25.6 and the recent solid coal prices, we expect breakneck earnings Tin US$/mt.ton 25,345 0.8 19.8 23.4 Tin US$/mt.ton 16,771 1.5 1.7 (14.1) growth for the company of 47.6% yoy in 2021. Maintain BUY with a SOFT COMMODITY SOFT COMMODITY TP of IDR3,600 (based on DCF). d-d m-m ytd d-d m-m ytd Unit Price Unit Price To see the full version of this report, please click here (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Cocoa US$/mt.ton 204 (0.4) 3.0 9.5 Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,476 (1.0) 1.3 4.7 XL Axiata: XL combating triple headwinds Corn US$/mt.ton 59 2.1 11.8 22.6 Corn US$/mt.ton 141 1.7 (2.5) 5.6 (EXCL IJ.IDR 2,510 BUY.TP IDR 3,300) Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 62 2.1 10.3 20.5 Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 56 0.6 (0.2) 24.3 Despite weak topline performance in 4Q20, we still see room for Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 3,890 (0.7) (2.1) 2.7 Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 61 (0.2) (1.4) 13.0 upside in the coming quarters and thus maintain our BUY call but Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 162 (0.4) 1.4 7.6 Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,632 (1.3) 11.4 34.8 with a lower TP. XL maintains a wait & see stance in the ongoing Rubber USd/kg 1,205 N/A 2.8 20.5 Rubber USd/kg 142 0.9 6.9 13.6 M&A activity that may drag involved telcos performance, at least in Pulp US$/tonne 453 (0.7) 3.8 7.5 Pulp US$/tonne 1,205 N/A 2.8 20.5 the short-term. Coffee US$/60kgbag 175 0.4 (3.7) 0.3 Coffee US$/60kgbag 72 0.3 7.9 3.5 To see the full version of this report, please click here Sugar US$/MT 46 0.9 6.7 6.3 Sugar US$/MT 345 0.7 1.3 3.6 Wheat US$/ton 1,372 0.3 (3.5) 4.3 Wheat US$/ton 143 (1.9) 0.7 (5.1) Jasa Armada Indonesia: Expansive mode Soy Oil US$/lb 204 (0.4) 3.0 9.5 Soy Oil US$/lb 30 0.1 (3.4) 8.9 (IPCM IJ.IDR 366 BUY.TP IDR 425) SoyBean US$/by 59 2.1 11.8 22.6 Soy Bean US$/by 871 0.1 (5.8) (1.3)
We had a call with IPCM discussing its current operations and expansion strategy in 2021. Looking forward, IPCM plans to get more external clients at private and special use ports. Furthermore, Patimban is poised to be one of the largest revenue contributors, although the benefits will take several years to be seen, awaiting optimal commercial use. Regarding the port merger rumors, IPCM is still awaiting the official release from the Ministry of SOE. We maintain our BUY recommendation with a TP of IDR425 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, February 17, 2021
To see the full version of this report, please click here
MARKET NEWS SECTOR ▪ Indonesia SWF: Government appointed the Board of Directors yesterday CORPORATE ▪ AKRA targets 30-40ha of land sales in 2021
PREVIOUS REPORTS ▪ Ace Hardware Indonesia: Jan-21 SSSG dipped as expected ▪ Bank Tabungan Negara: Solid results with more to come! ▪ SIDO MUNCUL: Bright outlook but the shares have run ahead ▪ Danareksa Research Institute: The Improving Manufacturing Sector signifies the Beginning of Imports Recovery ▪ Automotive: Luxury car tax incentives to help car sales ▪ Indosat Ooredoo: First read on 4Q20: Indosat proves to be resilient ▪ BTPN Syariah: Set for recovery ▪ Media Nusantara Citra: Positives All Round ▪ Poultry: Higher risk on implementation ▪ Plantation: Barrage of Tailwind ▪ Bank Central Asia: Steady growth but limited upside ▪ Bumi Serpong Damai: Void in the middle ▪ SIDO MUNCUL: Solid results as expected ▪ Strategy: Protraction of Trends ▪ January 2021 Consumer Confidence: Restriction policies suppress consumer optimism
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
Equity Research
Automotive
Tuesday, 16 February 2021 Automotive OVERWEIGHT Maintain Correction in car sales in Jan 2021
ASII relative to JCI Index After gradual increases in the monthly car sales over the past seven months, domestic car sales declined by 8.0% mom to 52,910 units (-34.2% yoy) in Jan xxxx 21. Astra International (ASII IJ.BUY.TP: IDR7,800) managed to maintain its market share above 50% in Jan 21. While the Jan 21 sales volume was slightly below our expectation (7% of our 2021 target of 780,000 units), we believe that domestic economic recovery as well as luxury car tax incentives will help
to improve car sales in the coming months. Maintain OVERWEIGHT with Astra International as our top pick.
Correction in domestic car sales in Jan 2021. After gradual improvements in
the monthly domestic car sales (wholesales) between June to Dec 2020, domestic car sales declined by 8.0% mom to 52,910 units in Jan 21. Most of the car brands reported lower monthly sales volume. On a yearly basis, sales volume went down by 34.2% yoy. The Jan 2021 sales figure is slightly below our Source : Bloomberg expectation as it is only about 7% of our 2021 forecast of 780,000 units.
Better monthly market share for Astra. ASII managed to maintain car delivery
from the manufacturers to the dealers in Jan 21, with the figure dipping 0.7%
mom to 26,830 units. Strong Daihatsu sales (+38.8% mom) helped to cushion
the decline in Toyota sales (-14.4% mom). Given the industry reported 8.0%
mom lower sales volume, the company managed to improve its monthly
market share to 50.7% in Jan 21 (Dec 20: 47.0%). Although the market share for
Astra is slightly below our expectation of 53% for 2021, we believe that Astra
can improve its market share in the coming months with expectation of new
product launches.
Expect stronger domestic car sales in 2021... Despite the weak start in
domestic car sales in Jan 2021, we estimate 46.5% yoy higher domestic car sales
of 780,000 units in 2021 supported by: a) recovery in domestic economic
growth, which our BRI-Danareksa’s economists expect to reach 4.1% in 2021
and b) the greater availability of Covid-19 vaccines to help increase domestic
consumer purchasing power.
…with more upside in sales from luxury car tax incentives. Also, we believe
that the implementation of the luxury car tax incentives for cars with engine
capacity below 1.5 L for sedans and the 4x2 categories over 9 months from
March to Nov 21 and with local content of more than 70% will provide more
upside in domestic car sales mainly in the L-MPV and L-SUV segments for 2021.
Based on data from Gaikindo, the contribution from those segments (<1.5L for
sedans and 4x2) was 40.2% of 2020’s car sales volume (wholesales).
Maintain OVERWEIGHT as we believe that luxury car tax incentives for 9 x Stefanus Darmagiri months should give a boost to car sales in 2021. Moreover, economic growth (62-21) 5091 4100 ext. 3530 recovery and solid commodity prices for CPO and metals will positively impact domestic car sales and motorcycle sales in 2021. Our top pick is Astra [email protected] International (ASII.BUY.TP of IDR7,800).
Target Market Price Cap. P/E (x) P/BV (x) ROE (%) Company Ticker Rec (Rp) (RpBn) 2020F 2021F 2020F 2021F 2021F Astra International ASII IJ BUY 7,800 240,877 14.9 13.7 1.6 1.5 11.1
www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report
Equity Research
Company Update
Tuesday,16 February 2021 BUY Adaro Energy(ADRO IJ) Maintain Flattish 2021 coal production target
Last price (IDR) 1,210 Adaro Energy (ADRO) reported coal production of 13.4mn tons (-2.8% qoq, - Target Price (IDR) 1,800 3.5% yoy) in 4Q20. Cumulatively, coal production went down by 6.0% yoy to 54.5mn tons in 2020, which is slightly better than the initial target of 52-54mn Upside/Downside +48.8% tons. Going into 2021, ADRO targets flattish coal production of around 52- Previous Target Price (IDR) 1,300 54mn tons and operational EBITDA of USD750-900mn with a stripping ratio at 4.8x. Maintain BUY. Stock Statistics Sector Coal Mining Lower 2020 coal production – but slightly above expectations. The company Bloomberg Ticker ADRO IJ reported 2.8% qoq lower coal production of 13.4mn tons in 4Q20. This was mainly attributable to unfavorable weather conditions with heavy rainfall since No of Shrs (mn) 31,986 Nov 2020. As a result, coal production declined by 6.0% yoy to 54.5mn tons in Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 38,703/2,778 2020 with a lower SR at 3.8x in 2020 (2019: 4.7x). Nonetheless, the realization Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 159.3/11.4 was slightly better than the company’s target of 52-54mn tons and our estimate of 53mn tons. Major shareholders (%) Adaro Strat. Inv. 43.9 4Q20 preview: lower SR to help sustain earnings. Although the company experienced 1.7% qoq lower quarterly coal sales of 13.4mn tons with 2.8% qoq Estimated Free Float 42.9 lower coal production, we expect that the impact from the lower stripping ratio Estimated free float 43.7 at 3.7x in 4Q20 (3Q20: 4.2x) as well as the improvement in global coal prices
EPS Consensus (USDcents) (NWC) since Oct 20 will help to sustain quarterly earnings in 4Q20.
2020F 2021F 2022F 2021 guidance: flattish coal production target at best. For 2021, the company Danareksa 0.8 1.2 1.3 targets flattish coal production at around 52-54mn tons. While the target was Consensus 0.8 1.1 1.3 lower than the realization of 54.5mn tons in 2020, it is similar to the previous year’s target of 52-54mn tons. With the expectation of an average coal price Danareksa/Cons (4.0) 7.5 (1.9) between the low to mid USD70s/ton and a stripping ratio target of 4.8x, ADRO relative to JCI Index operational EBITDA is expected to reach USD750 – 900mn for 2021. Our EBITDA assumption for 2021 is USD984mn, which is slightly higher than the company’s target as we assume coal production at 55mn tons with a lower SR at 4.5x. ADRO targets capex of around USD200-300mn for 2021. The company remains cautious on the coal outlook amid global economic recovery to improve coal prices.
Maintain BUY with a TP of IDR1,800 (based on DCF valuation with WACC of 9.4% and LT growth of 3%). We expect global economic recovery to give another push to coal demand and bolster coal prices in 2021. The main key risk: coal prices are prone to correction post Chinese New Year after coal restocking during winter. Our TP implies 10.9x 2021F PE.
Source : Bloomberg Key Financials
Year to 31 Dec 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F Revenue (USDmn) 3,620 3,457 2,549 2,921 3,183 EBITDA (USDmn) 1,370 1,120 708 984 1,100 EBITDA Growth (%) 5.9 (18.2) (36.8) 38.9 11.8
Net profit (USDmn) 418 404 246 378 408 EPS (USDcents) 1.3 1.3 0.8 1.2 1.3 EPS growth (%) (13.6) (3.2) (39.2) 54.0 7.9 BVPS (USDcents) 11.4 11.7 11.8 12.6 13.3 DPS (USDcents) 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 x Stefanus Darmagiri PER (x) 6.7 6.9 11.3 7.3 6.8 PBV (x) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 (62-21) 5091 4100 ext. 3530 Dividend yield (%) 9.0 7.2 7.0 4.2 6.5 [email protected] EV/EBITDA (x) 2.4 2.8 4.1 2.6 2.0
Source : ADRO, BRI-Danareksa Estimates
www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1
Equity Research
Company Update
Wednesday,17 February 2021 BUY Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ) Maintain Better coal prices improved profits
Last price (IDR) 2,600 We met with Bukit Asam (PTBA) and came away with the following Target Price (IDR) 3,600 takeaways: a) solid coal sales volume in 4Q20 thanks to stronger coal demand from China, b) the expectation of a recovery in coal production in 2021, and Upside/Downside +38.5% c) the continuation of infrastructure development to support rising Previous Target Price (IDR) 3,600 production. Given better production and the recent solid coal prices, we expect breakneck earnings growth for the company of 47.6% yoy in 2021. Stock Statistics Maintain BUY with a TP of IDR3,600 (based on DCF). Sector Coal Mining Solid sales volume and further cost efficiencies to sustain earnings in 4Q20. Bloomberg Ticker PTBA IJ Despite the rainy season impacting PTBA’s coal production in 4Q20, the No of Shrs (mn) 11,190 company indicated better coal sales volume in 4Q20 with strong coal demand Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 29,095/2,089 from China at the end of 2020 in anticipation of an extreme winter season and Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 127.9/9.2 the impact from China’s ban on coal imported from Australia. Moreover, on the costs side, with the company managing to negotiate with Kereta Api Indonesia Major shareholders (%) (PTKAI) on providing discounts on coal railway expenses in 4Q20 and in 1Q21, we expect PTBA’s earnings to be sustained in 4Q20. Coal railway expenses are Indonesia Asahan Aluminium 65.9 the largest cost component accounting 31% of the total costs in 9M20. Estimated Free Float 30.4 Expect higher production and solid prices to further improve earnings in 2021. While the company is in the process of finalizing its coal production target for
EPS Consensus (IDR) 2021, we expect a recovery in PTBA’s coal production not only from a global 2020F 2021F 2022F economic rebound, which will further improve global coal demand, but also a pick-up in the domestic economy, which will help to boost electricity Danareksa 219.0 323.3 356.7 consumption and hence increase domestic coal demand. We assume coal Consensus 215.5 278.1 309.0 production to increase by 12% yoy to 28mn tons in 2021.
Danareksa/Cons 1.6 16.3 15.4 Development projects to enhance long-term earnings. PTBA has several
PTBA relative to JCI Index development projects to support higher coal production and to enhance long- term earnings. In 2021, PTBA, together with PTKAI, is expected to further increase railway capacity to 32mn tons by 3Q21 from 25mn tons. In the medium term, PTBA will continue to develop railways and ports to further increase railway and ports capacity to 72mn tons by 2025. PTBA is also diversifying into the coal-to-chemical business (with targeted completion in 2Q24) and looking to complete the biggest mine mouth CFPP in Indonesia (Sumsel 8) in 1Q22.
Maintain BUY with a TP of IDR3,600 (based on DCF with WACC of 12.9%). We like PTBA for its business diversification into mine-mouth power plants and coal gasification which will improve coal production going forward since coal will be supplied by the company for both projects. We also like the company as a dividend play with an assumed dividend payout ratio of 75% that will translate into a 6.3% yield. Our TP implies 11.1x 2021F PE.
Source : Bloomberg Key Financials
Year to 31 Dec 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F Revenue (IDRbn) 21,167 21,788 17,359 21,099 24,249 EBITDA (IDRbn) 6,778 5,680 3,405 5,284 5,880 EBITDA Growth (%) 3.2 (16.2) (40.1) 55.2 11.3 Net profit (IDRbn) 5,024 4,057 2,451 3,618 3,992 EPS (IDR) 462.2 373.2 219.0 323.3 356.7 EPS growth (%) 12.2 (19.2) (41.3) 47.6 10.3
BVPS (IDR) 1,473.2 1,679.6 1,578.7 1,737.8 1,852.0
DPS (IDR) 308.8 346.6 271.9 164.3 242.5 x Stefanus Darmagiri PER (x) 5.6 7.0 11.9 8.0 7.3 PBV (x) 1.8 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 (62-21) 5091 4100 ext. 3530 Dividend yield (%) 11.9 13.3 10.5 6.3 9.3 [email protected] EV/EBITDA (x) 3.3 4.2 8.1 5.1 5.0
Source : PTBA, BRI-Danareksa Estimates
www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1
Equity Research
Company Update
Tuesday,16 February 2021 BUY XL Axiata(EXCL IJ) Maintain XL combating triple headwinds
Last price (IDR) 2,510 Despite weak topline performance in 4Q20, we still see room for upside in the Target Price (IDR) 3,300 coming quarters and thus maintain our BUY call but with a lower TP. XL maintains a wait & see stance in the ongoing M&A activity that may drag Upside/Downside +31.5% involved telcos performance, at least in the short-term. Previous Target Price (IDR) 4,000
Three reasons for the weakening of XL’s revenues. XL’s 4Q20 revenues reached Stock Statistics Rp6.35tn (-3.4%qoq), under pressure due to the headwinds of strong incumbent competition, the school subsidies program and weaker purchasing power. XL’s Sector Telco 4Q20 EBITDA of Rp3.16tn also yielded ground (-7.0%qoq), mainly reflecting lower Bloomberg Ticker EXCL IJ revenues. EXCL saw accelerated D&A expenses in 4Q20, starting to switch off 3G No of Shrs (mn) 10,688 networks in areas where usage is less than 10% of XL’s total traffic. The data yield Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 26,827/1,901 was driven down to Rp3,900/GB as operators pushed smaller data packages. XL now provides guidance for real improvements in 2H21. Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 65.2/4.6 XL’s wait and see stance over consolidation. XL avoids retaliation despite the stiff Major shareholders (%) price competition and instead utilizes its digital analytics to offer clustered Axiata Investments Indonesia Sdn. Bhd. 66.4 products based on data collection. XL’s efforts are targeted to improving distribution channels by revamping its MyXL and AxisNet apps, currently with
11mn active users to enable discretionary pricing and consumer surplus gains. Estimated free float 33.6 Nonetheless, the most effective lever that could catalyze XL performance at this
EPS Consensus (IDR) point is consolidation of its peers. XL brings to the table the XL standalone operation as a viable option for the foreseeable future as emphasized before. 2021F 2022F 2023F Based on XL’s previous experience, a merger between 2 players would require a Danareksa 97.5 184.4 220.3 period of 2-3 yrs for full integration given the complexity that 2 different Consensus 122.6 143.6 n/a networks, IT systems, brands, and distribution networks bring. Danareksa/Cons (20.5) 28.4 28.4 What to expect in 2021: a) ex-Java for mobile growth, b) fixed broadband organic growth, and c) even better margins EXCL relative to JCI Index - XL’s interests expanded in Ex-Java contributing 45% of XL’s revenues in 2020, and offering important leverage. Ex-Java EBIT is gradually becoming positive by area as it shows relatively greater profitability. - XL has ramped up its fixed broadband business creating a portfolio of 550k homepasses with the last mile in fiber in 2020, up from 250k a year ago. Currently it is on 28% homepasses penetration with at 50% margin and XL guides for more gains in its IFRS 2021 margin. Source : Bloomberg Maintain BUY with a lower TP. At this point, XL can boost its performance in ex- Java areas with more areas turning EBIT profitable with the passing of time. We also see that fixed BB can potentially add to XL’s performance meaningfully. Thus, we maintain our BUY call with a lower TP of IDR3,300. Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F Revenue (IDRbn) 25,133 26,009 26,795 27,921 28,647 EBITDA (IDRbn) 9,966 13,060 13,464 14,368 14,550 EBITDA Growth (%) 17.1 31.0 3.1 6.7 1.3 x Niko Margaronis Net profit (IDRbn) 713 372 1,042 1,971 2,355 EPS (IDR) 66.7 34.8 97.5 184.4 220.3 (62-21) 5091 4100 ext. 3512 EPS growth (%) (121.6) (47.9) 180.3 89.2 19.5 [email protected] BVPS (IDR) 1,789.1 1,803.1 1,881.5 2,031.8 2,169.1 DPS (IDR) 0.0 20.0 19.1 34.1 83.0 PER (x) 34.5 66.2 23.6 12.5 10.4 PBV (x) 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 www.danareksa.com Dividend yield (%) See important0.0 disclosure0.9 at the back0.8 of this report1.5 13.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 3.6 2.4 2.4 2.0 1.7 Source : EXCL, Danareksa Estimates Equity Research Company Update Tuesday,16 February 2021 Buy Jasa Armada Indonesia(IPCM IJ) Maintain Expansive mode Last price (IDR) 366 We had a call with IPCM discussing its current operations and expansion Target Price (IDR) 425 strategy in 2021. Looking forward, IPCM plans to get more external clients at Upside/Downside +16.1% private and special use ports. Furthermore, Patimban is poised to be one of Previous Target Price (IDR) 425 the largest revenue contributors, although the benefits will take several years to be seen, awaiting optimal commercial use. Regarding the port merger Stock Statistics rumors, IPCM is still awaiting the official release from the Ministry of SOE. We Sector PORT maintain our BUY recommendation with a TP of IDR425 Bloomberg Ticker IPCM IJ Adding more external clients to its portfolio. IPCM is seeking additional clients No of Shrs (mn) 5,285 from private and special use ports outside Pelindo 2 general ports. This strategy Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 1,934/139 looks to be paying off, marked by additional clients from Java I power plants in Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 2.7/0.2 Jan 21 whereby the company will provide marine services and boat rent, although the details have yet to be disclosed. The expansion initiative showed Major shareholders (%) traction in 9M20 as the consolidated GT hour improved by 62%yoy contributing Pelindo II 76.9 23.6% to consolidated revenues. Others 0.1 Estimated free float 12.1 Still awaiting benefits from Patimban. IPCM estimates that the company can gain benefits from the Patimban port circa 2023 when phase two out of three EPS Consensus (IDR) is completed. With phase two, Patimban will have capacity of 3.75mn TEUs and 2020F 2021F 2022F CBU capacity of 600,000. Patimban is a deep seaport with capacity of 7.5mn Danareksa 16.6 18.5 23.7 TEUs and 600,000 CBU which will be completed in 2027. Consensus n/a n/a n/a Danareksa/Cons n/a n/a n/a No official instruction for port merger yet. IPCM stated that there is no official instruction for the merger of Pelindo I-IV yet from the Ministry of SOE. IPCM IPCM relative to JCI Index believes that the plan is still being formulated by the Ministry. Should the merger go ahead, IPCM believes that the corporate action will have a positive impact as combined port authorization and permits may support expansion plans throughout Indonesia. Relying on recovery from general ports and new initiatives. As social distancing restrictions ease, we believe the ship flow will normalize in 2021 after the flow of ships decreased by 15.2%yoy as the majority of containers originated from overseas. Moreover, new initiatives will be the other catalyst for growth in 2021. The main risk to our call is a prolonged pandemic that may lead to stricter social distancing restrictions. We maintain our BUY call with a TP of IDR425. Source : Bloomberg Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2019A 2019A 2021F 2022F 2023F Revenue (IDRbn) 25,133 26,009 26,795 27,921 28,647 EBITDA (IDRbn) 9,966 13,060 13,464 14,368 14,550 EBITDA Growth (%) 17.1 6.5 3.1 6.7 1.3 Net profit (IDRbn) 713 372 1,042 1,971 2,355 EPS (IDR) 66.7 34.8 97.5 184.4 220.3 EPS growth (%) (121.6) 23.7 180.3 89.2 19.5 BVPS (IDR) 1,789.1 1,803.1 1,881.5 2,031.8 2,169.1 DPS (IDR) 0.0 20.0 19.1 34.1 83.0 x Ignatius Teguh Prayoga PER (x) 33.4 64.1 22.9 12.1 10.1 PBV (x) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 (62-21) 5091 4100 ext. 3511 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.9 0.9 1.5 3.7 [email protected] EV/EBITDA (x) 3.5 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.7 Source : IPCM, Danareksa Estimates www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1 Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, February 17, 2021 MARKET NEWS SECTOR Indonesia SWF: Government appointed the Board of Directors yesterday The Indonesian President announced the names of the directors for the Indonesian Investment Authority (INA), the Indonesia SWF, yesterday. Through the appointment of the BoD, INA can start operation. For the initial capital, INA has received IDR30.0tn which has been taken from the 2020 and 2021 State Budgets. The government plans to inject another IDR45.0tn of capital through transfer assets which will be done gradually until the end of 2021. (Investor Daily). The board of directors of INA are: • CEO : Ridha DM Wirakusumah (CEO PT Bank Permata) • Deputy CEO : Arief Budiman (Ex. CEO Pertamina) • Chief Investment Officer : Stefanus Ade Hadiwidjaja (Managing Director of Creador) • Chief Risk Officer : Marita Alisjahbana (Country Risk Manager Indonesia Citi) • Chief Financial Officer : Eddy Porwanto (Ex. CEO PT Garuda Indonesia Tbk) CORPORATE AKRA targets 30-40ha of land sales in 2021 As AKRA has booked land sales of 25ha in 2020, the company aims to achieve 30-40ha of land sales in 2021. AKRA believes that the Special Economic Zone that was recently granted by the Government will attract investors as they will receive benefits from the permits side. The land sales income will be used for improving the estate utilities. AKRA stated that potential tenants are from steel manufacturing, petro-chemicals, oleochemicals, piping, food and beverages and the consumer sectors. For JIIPE, AKRA has spent IDR 6tn from 2014-2020. In 2021, AKRA will focus on improving the ports and infrastructure required by tenants. (Bisnis Indonesia) Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT Equity Rating Price (Rp) Price Mkt Cap Net profit, Rp bn EPS (Rp) Core EPS (Rp) EPS Grow th PER (x) EV / EBITDA (x) PBV (x) ROE Valuation Target Rp Bn 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 Danareksa Universe 4,191,517 169,978 231,151 132 180 -27.3% 36.0% 24.7 18.1 14.4 12.2 2.5 2.3 10.2 13.3 Auto 239,865 16,177 17,551 400 434 -25.5% 8.5% 14.8 13.7 9.5 8.1 1.6 1.5 10.7 11.1 Astra International BUY 5,925 7,300 239,865 16,177 17,551 400 434 266 368 -25.5% 8.5% 14.8 13.7 9.5 8.1 1.6 1.5 10.7 11.1 Banks 1,361,320 51,138 76,190 389 580 -33.6% 49.0% 26.6 17.9 2.5 2.3 9.2 13.4 BCA HOLD 34,700 38,000 855,529 25,010 31,972 1,014 1,297 1,014 1,297 -12.4% 27.8% 34.2 26.8 N/A N/A 4.7 4.3 14.0 16.7 BNI BUY 6,350 8,000 118,419 2,865 11,433 154 613 154 613 -81.4% 299.0% 41.3 10.4 N/A N/A 1.1 1.0 2.5 10.0 Bank Tabungan Negara BUY 1,930 2,400 20,439 1,367 1,961 129 185 129 185 553.2% 43.5% 15.0 10.4 N/A N/A 1.1 1.0 6.4 9.8 Bank Mandiri BUY 6,475 8,000 302,167 17,722 24,887 380 533 380 533 -35.5% 40.4% 17.1 12.1 N/A N/A 1.6 1.5 9.0 12.9 BTPN HOLD 2,900 3,200 23,632 1,953 2,990 240 367 240 367 -24.1% 53.1% 12.1 7.9 N/A N/A 0.8 0.7 6.4 9.3 BTPS BUY 3,790 4,200 29,197 963 1,577 125 205 125 205 -31.2% 63.8% 30.3 18.5 N/A N/A 4.8 4.1 16.8 23.8 BPD Jatim BUY 795 850 11,937 1,258 1,370 84 91 84 91 -8.6% 8.9% 9.5 8.7 N/A N/A 1.2 1.1 13.3 13.5 Cement 116,380 3,604 4,082 375 425 -14.7% 13.2% 32.3 28.5 11.6 10.3 2.0 2.0 6.4 7.1 Indocement BUY 13,850 18,100 50,985 1,487 1,727 404 469 404 469 -19.0% 16.1% 34.3 29.5 21.3 18.9 2.2 2.2 6.5 7.6 Semen Indonesia BUY 11,025 15,600 65,395 2,117 2,355 357 397 357 397 -11.5% 11.2% 30.9 27.8 8.5 7.4 1.9 1.8 6.4 6.7 Cigarettes 236,293 17,715 16,315 150 138 -28.0% -7.9% 13.3 14.5 8.4 8.8 2.6 2.5 20.0 17.8 Gudang Garam HOLD 38,475 60,850 74,029 8,197 7,807 4,260 4,057 4,260 4,057 -24.7% -4.8% 9.0 9.5 5.5 5.5 1.3 1.2 14.9 12.8 HM Sampoerna SELL 1,395 1,100 162,264 9,518 8,508 82 73 82 73 -30.6% -10.6% 17.0 19.1 11.5 12.6 5.2 5.3 28.4 27.6 Construction 100,055 - 5,127 4,067 (69) 54 -161.5% -179.3% (19.5) 24.6 25.27 12.51 1.3 1.2 - 6.3 5.0 Wijaya Karya BUY 2,000 2,700 17,940 146 788 16 88 16 88 -93.6% 438.3% 122.6 22.8 23.7 9.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 4.8 Pembangunan Perumahan BUY 1,815 2,500 11,253 74 439 12 71 36 74 -92.1% 493.4% 152.2 25.6 13.6 9.5 0.8 0.7 0.5 3.0 Adhi Karya BUY 1,525 2,500 5,430 36 422 10 119 (11) 132 -94.5% 1059.2% 149.0 12.9 12.2 9.3 0.8 0.7 0.5 6.0 Waskita Karya BUY 1,605 2,000 21,786 (4,141) 489 (305) 36 (314) 25 -541.4% -111.8% (5.3) 44.6 406.2 19.6 1.6 1.5 (26.2) 3.5 Waskita Beton BUY 278 370 7,328 (1,574) 353 (60) 13 (34) 13 -295.2% -122.4% (4.7) 20.8 - 57.3 11.4 1.4 1.3 (23.4) 6.4 Wika Beton BUY 378 610 3,294 87 322 10 37 10 37 -83.0% 270.5% 37.9 10.2 10.2 6.2 1.0 0.9 2.5 9.1 Jasa Marga BUY 4,550 5,900 33,023 244 1,254 34 173 83 228 -88.9% 413.8% 135.3 26.3 15.0 12.4 1.8 1.6 1.3 6.4 Consumer 485,885 20,816 22,664 253 275 4.9% 8.9% 23.3 21.4 15.3 13.7 5.5 5.0 24.6 24.4 Indofood CBP BUY 8,825 13,000 102,916 5,962 7,081 511 607 557 607 18.3% 18.8% 17.3 14.5 16.1 13.0 3.6 3.2 22.2 23.4 Indofood BUY 6,100 8,100 53,561 5,249 5,735 598 653 696 653 6.9% 9.3% 10.2 9.3 6.6 6.0 1.3 1.2 13.4 13.6 Unilever HOLD 7,025 8,275 268,004 7,250 7,548 190 198 190 198 -1.9% 4.1% 37.0 35.5 26.1 25.2 47.5 44.5 132.7 129.4 Kino Indonesia SELL 2,290 2,500 3,271 212 198 148 138 148 138 -59.3% -6.7% 15.5 16.6 11.4 10.4 1.2 1.1 8.0 7.1 Mayora Indah BUY 2,600 3,100 58,133 2,143 2,102 96 94 84 94 7.8% -1.9% 27.1 27.7 17.2 16.0 5.2 4.6 20.5 17.6 Pharmaceutical 117,045 3,618 3,908 44 47 9.6% 8.0% 32.3 29.9 21.7 19.8 4.2 3.9 13.4 13.5 Sido Muncul HOLD 780 850 23,400 910 981 30 33 30 33 12.6% 7.8% 25.7 23.9 21.9 20.1 7.4 7.2 29.3 30.7 Kalbe Farma BUY 1,525 1,900 71,485 2,652 2,828 57 60 57 60 5.8% 6.7% 27.0 25.3 17.7 16.5 4.1 3.7 15.9 15.4 Kimia Farma SELL 3,990 1,500 22,160 56 99 10 18 10 18 -543.5% 75.7% 392.9 223.6 46.0 35.4 3.0 3.0 0.8 1.3 Heavy Equipment 86,166 7,377 10,108 1,978 2,710 -34.8% 37.0% 11.7 8.5 5.1 3.8 1.4 1.3 12.3 15.6 United Tractors BUY 23,100 33,000 86,166 7,377 10,108 1,978 2,710 1,922 2,648 -34.8% 37.0% 11.7 8.5 5.1 3.8 1.4 1.3 12.3 15.6 Industrial Estate 15,800 905 1,159 14 19 -50.7% 28.1% 17.5 13.6 11.4 9.0 1.1 1.0 6.1 7.7 Puradelta Lestari HOLD 240 300 11,568 858 925 18 19 18 19 -35.7% 7.8% 13.5 12.5 12.3 10.3 1.8 1.8 13.2 14.1 Bekasi Fajar BUY 168 390 1,621 145 310 15 32 11 27 -64.5% 114.1% 11.2 5.2 8.5 5.3 0.4 0.3 3.2 6.7 Surya Semesta BUY 555 800 2,611 (98) (77) (21) (16) (21) (16) -206.6% -22.2% (26.5) (34.1) 11.7 10.5 0.7 0.7 (2.5) (2.0) Media 47,298 3,134 3,974 105 133 -5.7% 26.8% 15.1 11.9 9.2 7.7 2.7 2.4 18.5 21.3 Media Nusantara Citra BUY 1,110 1,700 16,705 1,951 2,710 130 180 130 180 -13.5% 38.9% 8.6 6.2 5.3 4.0 1.2 1.1 15.1 18.0 Surya Citra Media HOLD 2,070 1,950 30,593 1,183 1,264 80 85 79 85 10.6% 6.8% 25.9 24.2 17.0 15.7 10.0 7.6 29.7 35.5 Mining 249,403 9,279 14,131 105 159 -24.9% 52.3% 26.9 17.6 10.7 7.5 1.8 1.7 6.6 9.7 Adaro Energy BUY 1,210 1,800 38,703 3,489 5,296 109 166 109 166 -39.6% 51.8% 11.1 7.3 4.1 2.6 0.7 0.7 6.5 9.5 Timah HOLD 2,330 1,600 17,353 (168) 394 (23) 53 (39) 59 -72.6% -334.9% (103.3) 44.0 24.7 12.6 3.4 3.1 (3.2) 7.4 Vale Indonesia BUY 6,225 6,000 61,854 1,313 1,854 132 187 132 187 60.0% 41.2% 47.1 33.4 16.4 12.6 2.2 2.1 4.7 6.3 Aneka Tambang BUY 2,870 2,000 68,968 998 1,184 42 49 38 49 415.0% 18.6% 69.1 58.2 26.5 22.8 3.6 3.5 5.4 6.1 Bukit Asam BUY 2,600 3,600 29,954 2,451 3,618 213 314 213 314 -39.6% 47.6% 12.2 8.3 8.3 5.2 1.7 1.5 13.6 19.5 Indo Tambangraya Megah HOLD 12,675 15,500 14,322 802 1,429 710 1,264 710 1,264 -56.6% 78.0% 17.8 10.0 5.0 3.4 1.2 1.1 6.4 11.3 Harum Energy SELL 6,750 2,500 18,249 393 356 145 132 73 132 48.5% -9.4% 46.4 51.3 35.5 22.9 3.9 3.8 8.6 7.5 Petrochemical 308,512 2,011 5,121 18 46 26.9% 154.6% 153.4 60.2 28.6 20.5 7.1 6.6 4.7 11.4 Barito Pacific HOLD 1,160 1,100 108,331 1,533 3,229 16 35 16 35 21.2% 110.7% 70.7 33.5 15.7 12.0 6.0 5.3 8.8 16.7 Chandra Asri Petrochemical HOLD 11,225 8,900 200,181 478 1,891 27 106 27 106 49.3% 295.3% 418.4 105.8 65.6 40.4 7.9 7.6 1.9 7.4 Plantation 47,935 2,324 2,828 80 98 253.9% 21.7% 20.6 17.0 7.1 6.2 1.3 1.2 6.5 7.5 Astra Agro Lestari BUY 11,350 14,000 21,845 998 1,189 518 618 518 618 372.7% 19.2% 21.9 18.4 7.9 6.6 1.1 1.1 5.3 6.0 Dharma Satya BUY 600 850 6,360 380 488 36 46 24 44 111.0% 28.6% 16.8 13.0 4.2 3.6 1.6 1.5 10.0 11.7 Saw it Sumbermas BUY 1,090 1,450 10,382 517 690 54 72 62 71 4323.8% 33.5% 20.1 15.1 7.4 7.0 2.4 2.1 12.4 15.1 PP London Sumatra BUY 1,370 1,500 9,347 430 460 63 67 61 68 69.2% 7.2% 21.8 20.3 9.0 7.9 1.1 1.0 5.0 5.1 Poultry 123,235 3,433 4,884 113 161 -38.0% 42.3% 35.9 25.2 16.4 13.0 3.5 3.2 11.8 13.2 Charoen Pokphand HOLD 6,325 6,500 103,717 3,067 3,665 187 224 188 224 -15.6% 19.5% 33.8 28.3 19.4 16.7 4.6 4.2 14.1 15.4 Japfa Comfeed BUY 1,525 2,000 17,883 444 1,092 38 93 38 93 -74.9% 146.1% 40.3 16.4 10.3 7.4 1.7 1.5 4.1 9.7 Malindo Feedmill BUY 730 1,400 1,634 (77) 127 (35) 57 (60) 35 -156.9% -264.0% (21.1) 12.9 11.4 6.9 0.8 0.8 (3.9) 6.4 Property 89,876 3,398 5,463 28 45 -58.5% 60.8% 26.4 16.5 12.0 9.3 1.1 1.0 4.6 6.6 Alam Sutera HOLD 244 240 4,794 (9) 297 (0) 15 20 22 -100.9% -3474.7% (544.0) 16.1 8.4 6.8 0.5 0.4 (0.1) 2.8 Bumi Serpong Damai HOLD 1,225 1,300 25,935 1,417 2,606 67 123 67 123 -49.2% 83.9% 18.3 10.0 11.0 6.6 0.8 0.8 5.7 8.2 Ciputra Development BUY 1,095 1,400 20,324 796 845 43 46 43 46 -31.3% 6.2% 25.5 24.0 13.5 11.6 1.3 1.2 5.1 5.1 Pakuw on Jati BUY 550 640 26,488 1,047 1,524 22 32 26 33 -61.5% 45.6% 25.3 17.4 12.6 10.3 1.7 1.5 6.8 9.3 Summarecon HOLD 855 950 12,335 147 191 10 13 6 12 -71.4% 29.7% 83.9 64.7 14.6 14.6 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.5 Utility 36,483 1,608 2,356 66 97 66.5% 46.5% 22.7 15.5 5.7 5.5 1.0 1.0 4.4 6.3 PGN BUY 1,505 2,900 36,483 1,608 2,356 66 97 114 118 66.5% 46.5% 22.7 15.5 5.7 5.5 1.0 1.0 4.4 6.3 Retail 48,298 - 833 2,478 (19) 57 -120.9% -397.3% (57.9) 19.5 13.0 6.0 3.2 2.8 - 5.2 15.1 Mitra Adi Perkasa BUY 750 1,050 12,450 (698) 619 (42) 37 (36) 37 -174.8% -188.6% (17.8) 20.1 7.6 3.3 2.4 2.1 (12.3) 11.0 Ramayana BUY 740 1,050 5,251 (200) 324 (28) 46 (28) 43 -130.8% -262.3% (26.3) 16.2 30.6 6.5 1.4 1.3 (5.1) 8.4 Matahari Department Store SELL 1,300 1,200 3,414 (735) 511 (280) 195 (232) 187 -153.8% -169.6% (4.6) 6.7 4.8 1.6 3.4 2.2 (53.3) 40.4 Ace Hardw are HOLD 1,585 1,925 27,183 799 1,024 47 60 47 60 -22.4% 28.1% 34.0 26.6 25.1 19.9 5.0 4.7 15.9 18.2 Telco 478,384 28,279 32,516 150 172 17.3% 15.0% 16.9 14.7 5.5 5.1 3.1 3.0 18.9 20.7 Telekomunikasi Indonesia BUY 3,210 4,600 317,990 22,609 25,742 228 260 232 260 21.1% 13.9% 14.1 12.4 5.0 4.7 3.1 3.0 22.3 24.5 Indosat BUY 6,075 4,400 33,011 (664) (19) (122) (3) (197) (3) 142.3% 97.1% (49.7) (1,742.0) 4.1 3.6 2.7 2.7 (5.4) (0.2) XL Axiata BUY 2,210 4,000 23,660 2,345 1,845 219 172 98 157 229.1% -21.3% 10.1 12.8 2.8 2.5 1.1 1.1 11.6 8.4 Tow er Bersama HOLD 2,180 1,950 49,392 1,108 1,897 49 84 49 84 35.2% 71.3% 44.6 26.0 16.5 13.3 7.8 6.6 19.6 27.5 Sarana Menara Nusantara BUY 1,065 1,400 54,331 2,881 3,051 56 60 56 60 23.0% 5.9% 18.9 17.8 12.7 12.8 5.2 4.8 30.1 28.0 Transportation 3,284 105 153 15 22 -53.5% 45.6% 31.3 21.5 12.8 7.9 1.4 1.4 4.7 6.5 Indonesia Kendaraan Terminal BUY 725 600 1,318 17 55 9 30 9 30 -87.4% 224.6% 77.4 23.9 20.0 6.4 1.1 1.1 1.5 4.7 Jasa Armada Indonesia BUY 372 425 1,966 88 98 17 18 17 18 -2.3% 11.0% 22.4 20.1 10.5 9.3 1.7 1.6 7.9 8.4 Trade 13,851 1,017 1,203 253 300 42.0% 18.3% 13.6 11.5 8.1 7.1 1.6 1.5 11.9 13.3 AKR Corporindo BUY 3,450 3,700 13,851 1,017 1,203 253 300 253 300 42.0% 18.3% 13.6 11.5 8.1 7.1 1.6 1.5 11.9 13.3 Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, February 17, 2021 COVERAGE PERFORMANCE LEADERS Price as on Code 16-Feb-21 15-Feb-21 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating Harum Energy HRUM 7,275 6,575 10.6 22.8 70.0 144.1 SELL Kimia Farma KAEF 3,740 3,500 6.9 14.7 (38.2) (12.0) SELL Vale Indonesia INCO 6,375 6,025 5.8 9.0 (3.4) 25.0 BUY Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 12,950 12,500 3.6 6.8 (11.9) (6.5) HOLD Indofood INDF 6,300 6,125 2.9 (0.4) (6.3) (8.0) BUY Japfa Comfeed JPFA 1,485 1,445 2.8 7.6 (8.9) 1.4 BUY Indosat ISAT 5,950 5,800 2.6 6.7 (4.0) 17.8 BUY Charoen Pokphand CPIN 6,075 5,950 2.1 5.2 (8.6) (6.9) HOLD Ciputra Development CTRA 1,055 1,035 1.9 9.9 (1.4) 7.1 BUY Bukit Asam PTBA 2,590 2,550 1.6 4.4 (13.7) (7.8) BUY Sources: Bloomberg LAGGARDS Price as on Code 16-Feb-21 15-Feb-21 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating Tower Bersama TBIG 2,080 2,180 (4.6) (10.7) 23.8 27.6 HOLD Ace Hardware ACES 1,570 1,610 (2.5) (6.0) (9.0) (8.5) HOLD Alam Sutera ASRI 236 242 (2.5) 13.5 (8.5) (2.5) HOLD Aneka Tambang ANTM 2,870 2,930 (2.0) 19.6 (9.7) 48.3 BUY Pakuwon Jati PWON 525 535 (1.9) 5.0 (7.1) 2.9 BUY Surya Semesta SSIA 535 545 (1.8) 3.9 (4.5) (7.0) BUY Waskita Karya WSKT 1,555 1,580 (1.6) 10.7 (7.7) 8.0 BUY PP London Sumatra LSIP 1,340 1,360 (1.5) 3.1 (2.2) (2.5) BUY Ramayana RALS 725 735 (1.4) 10.7 (9.4) (6.5) BUY Jasa Marga JSMR 4,390 4,450 (1.3) (3.3) (6.2) (5.2) BUY Sources: Bloomberg Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, February 17, 2021 PREVIOUS REPORTS ▪ Ace Hardware Indonesia: Jan-21 SSSG dipped as expected ▪ Bank Tabungan Negara: Solid results with more to come! ▪ SIDO MUNCUL: Bright outlook but the shares have run ahead ▪ Danareksa Research Institute: The Improving Manufacturing Sector signifies the Beginning of Imports Recovery ▪ Automotive: Luxury car tax incentives to help car sales ▪ Indosat Ooredoo: First read on 4Q20: Indosat proves to be resilient ▪ BTPN Syariah: Set for recovery ▪ Media Nusantara Citra: Positives All Round ▪ Poultry: Higher risk on implementation ▪ Plantation: Barrage of Tailwind ▪ Bank Central Asia: Steady growth but limited upside ▪ Bumi Serpong Damai: Void in the middle ▪ SIDO MUNCUL: Solid results as expected ▪ Strategy: Protraction of Trends ▪ January 2021 Consumer Confidence: Restriction policies suppress consumer optimism ▪ Barito Pacific: Looking to improve its ESG ▪ Aneka Tambang: Riding the wave of positive sentiment ▪ HM Sampoerna: Sharply lower sales volume ▪ Unilever Indonesia: Tepid growth ▪ Wika Gedung: Shaping up to be a better year ▪ Danareksa Research Institute: GDP Outlook 4th Quarter 2020 – Sluggish Recovery ▪ Wijaya Karya: Enlarging the asphalt business ▪ Matahari Department Store: Plans in Hand, Execution Pending ▪ Alam Sutra Realty: Better than expected 4Q marketing sales ▪ Bank Negara Indonesia: Sharply lower profits, as expected ▪ Bank Rakyat Indonesia: Remain the biggest micro lender in Indonesia ▪ Strategy: Optimism and Progress ▪ Bank Mandiri: To a better year ▪ Gudang Garam: Attractive valuation but lacking catalysts ▪ Pakuwon Jati: Signs of recovery in high-rise residential property ▪ Dharma Satya Nusantara: Robust 2020 on the Horizon ▪ Ultrajaya Milk: Still challenging ▪ Bumi Serpong Damai: Strong demand for high-end landed houses ▪ Link Net: Time for corporate action – Takeaways ▪ Waskita Karya: All eyes on assets divestment ▪ Bank Rakyat Indonesia: Growth Opportunities Abound ▪ Ace Hardware Indonesia: SSSG dipped back in Dec 20 ▪ Astra International: Going Stronger! ▪ Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa: Market share maintained ▪ Wismilak Inti Makmur: Benefiting from its tier-2 status ▪ Danareksa Research Institute: December Outlook: Robust Manufacture Production ▪ Wijaya Karya: The parent of hotel holding ▪ Telkom Indonesia: Sustainable layers of growth – Call takeaways ▪ Plantation: Starting at Out With a Bang ▪ Strategy: The Impetus of Revival ▪ Poultry: First culling in 2021 ▪ Petrochemical: Oversupply threat still lingers ▪ Poultry: Walking on thin ice ▪ Property: More needed than ever ▪ Telco: Digital gains prior & post M&A era Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, February 17, 2021 PT BRI Danareksa Sekuritas Gedung BRI II Lt.23, Jl. Jenderal Sudirman Kav.44-46 Bendungan Hilir, Tanah Abang – Jakarta Pusat 10210 Indonesia Indonesia Tel (62 21) 50914100 Fax (62 21) 2520990 Equity Research Team Helmy Kristanto Stefanus Darmagiri Natalia Sutanto [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3500 (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3530 (62-21) 50914100 ext.3508 S Head of Research, Strategy Auto, Coal, Heavy Equip, Metal Consumer, Tobacco, Pharmacy Maria Renata Eka Savitri Niko Margaronis [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3513 (62-21) 50914100 ext.3506 (62-21) 50914100 ext.3512 Construction, Toll Road, Cement Banking Telco, Tower, Utilities Victor Stefano Ignatius Teguh Prayoga Andreas Kenny [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3503 (62-21) 50914100 ext.3511 (62-21) 50914100 ext.3509 Poultry, Property, Industrial Estate Basic Industries, Port Retail, Media, Plantation Muhammad Naufal Yunas Kharim Syamsuddin [email protected] [email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext.3507 (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3507 Healthcare Research Associate Sales team Vera Ongyono Ehrliech Suhartono Yunita L. Nababan [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3120 (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3132 (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3145 Tuty Sutopo Wisnu Budhiargo Adeline Solaiman [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3121 (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3117 (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3503 Thalia Kadharusman [email protected] (62-21) 50914100 ext. 3124 Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT Equity SNAPSHOT Wednesday, February 17, 2021 Disclaimer The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action , suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas or any other person to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice. Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT