RESEARCH ARTICLE Dynamics and persistence of rabies in the Arctic Audrey Simon1, Olivia Tardy1, Amy Hurford2, Nicolas Lecomte3, Denise Bélanger1 & Patrick A. Leighton1 1Research Group on Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Montreal, Quebec, Canada; 2Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada; 3Canada Research Chair in Polar and Boreal Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Moncton, Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada Abstract Keywords Vulpes lagopus; epidemiological model; Rabies is a major issue for human and animal health in the Arctic, yet little Arctic rabies; virus transmission; public is known about its epidemiology. In particular, there is an ongoing debate health; climate change regarding how Arctic rabies persists in its primary reservoir host, the Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus), which exists in the ecosystem at very low population Correspondence densities. To shed light on the mechanisms of rabies persistence in the Arctic, Audrey Simon, Research Group on we built a susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered (SEIR) epidemiological Epidemiology of Zoonoses and Public model of rabies virus transmission in an Arctic fox population interacting with Health, 3200 Sicotte, Saint-Hyacinthe, J2S 2M2, Quebec, Canada. red foxes (Vulpes vulpes), a rabies host that is increasingly present in the Arctic. E-mail:
[email protected] The model suggests that rabies cannot be maintained in resource-poor areas of the Arctic, characterized by low Arctic fox density, even in the presence of Abbreviations continuous reintroduction of the virus by infected Arctic foxes from neigh- PRCC: partial rank correlation coefficient; bouring regions. However, in populations of relatively high Arctic fox den- SEIR: susceptible–exposed–infectious– sity, rabies persists under conditions of higher transmission rate, prolonged recovered (epidemiological model) infectious period and for a broad range of incubation periods.