A CLOSERLOOK BY YOSSI KRAUSZ NATIONAL & WORLD NEWS How AN UPHEAVAL IN Threatened THE ROYAL FAMILY RAISES QUESTIONS Is ’s OF INSTABILITY King Abdullah?

38 AMI MAGAZINE // APRIL 14, 2021 // 2 IYAR 5781

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with or some people, when their neighbors have a domestic Dovid Lichtenstein dispute next door, muffled through their apartment walls, they may listen in to find out how everyone there is faring and whether there is any need to intercede. FThey may also listen to find out if the conflict is going to spill over into their own living quarters. How has That was likely the attitude of Israeli officials last week, as an event termed by some as a coup attempt and others as simply a family squabble went on in the Jordanian royal family. King Rabbanus Abdullah II took swift action against his half-brother, Prince Hamzah, as well as a number of the prince’s advisers, and it appeared that the conflict resolved quickly. But the episode & highlighted the twisty lineage of the Hashemite royalty, the concerns that the king has about a popular prince, and the society different pressures that a leader already under pressure can come under. It also came at a strange time in Israeli-Jordanian relations, with changed the two supposed peace partners at loggerheads over a number of issues. Do any of the threats to the Jordanian king suggest a threat to the -Jordan relationship? over the the outside world, with his phone and A vague coup- Internet curtailed and the house arrest decades like thing made more severe. Soon after, Prince wo Saturdays ago, Jordanian au- Hamzah wrote a letter in which he Tthorities arrested a number of stated his support for the king. high-ranking government officials and That apparently came after a session With renowned Rabbonim put Prince Hamzah, the popular half- of intra-family mediation, taken on by Rabbi Berel Wein brother of King Abdullah, under five senior princes. One member of Rabbi Zeev Le‚ house arrest. They were accused, in Prince Hamzah’s inner circle, Malik R. Rabbi Gershon Bess vague terms, of attempting to under- Dahlan, who is also a professional me- mine the Jordanian government. Over diator, told The Wall Street Journal that the next few days, a drama played out, the publicity around the rift was a in part online. Prince Hamzah released mistake. “This regrettable incident was a video in which he denounced the the result of the clumsy actions of a government and claiming that his senior security official and misrepre- brother’s regime was corrupt. He said sentation by a government official,” he that he had not been involved with added. “It should have remained a any foreign governments—which was family matter.” "Listening to the comments, it is obvious apparently something he felt he had Exactly who those officials were was that your listenership is extremely been accused of. (Jordanian govern- unclear. But some of the officials who bright and well versed." - Rabbi May ment officials had accused him of were involved on Prince Hamzah’s side communicating with opposition are known; about 18 remain in EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEWS figures, including some abroad.) custody. The most interesting is That led to him being cut off from Bassem Awadallah, a Jordanian who OVER 5 MILLION DOWNLOADS! Over 300 Episodes 732.806.8700 podcast.headlinesbook.com

Ami513-CloserLook.indd 39 4/13/21 12:25 AM A CLOSERLOOK NATIONAL & WORLD NEWS BY YOSSI KRAUSZ

previously served in the Jordanian govern- Awadallah’s been the inciting incident that led to the ment and now advises Saudi Crown Prince involvement initial arrest of the prince. Mohammed bin Salman. Awadallah’s in- suggests the “It appears that Prince Hamzah had been volvement suggests the possibility that the possibility that the reaching out to disaffected groups and Saudis were mixing into the turmoil them- tribal elements and trying to beef up his selves. Saudis were mixing image,” Dr. Krasna said. “He has been into the turmoil unhappy since being replaced by the king Popular dissent themselves. as crown prince in 2004 (in favor of King Abdullah II’s own son). In the current situa- and a non-coup tion, this appears to have been a red line for f there was a plot—the details of which the king, leading to the recent crackdown. Ihave not yet been revealed by the Jorda- There has been no talk of a coup in Jordan, nians—it appears to have been an attempt but rather of ‘sedition.’” to harness public unhappiness with the Prince Hamzah is the son of King state of affairs in the country. Hussein of Jordan’s fourth wife, American- Dr. Joshua Krasna is a research fellow at born Queen Noor. King Abdullah II, on the the Moshe Dayan Center in Tel Aviv Uni- other hand, is the son of his father’s second versity and a professor at the NYU Center wife, Princess Muna, who was born in for Global Affairs. He served as a diplomat Britain. in Jordan. Dr. Joshua Krasna He told Ami: “The domestic situation in Should Israel Jordan is very difficult right now: The coro- centrated in the East Banker (Transjorda- navirus public health measures have been nian) communities, which are disaffected worry? very onerous, and after a good start, seem with government policies (which they see nstability in Jordan is a real concern for to not be working (they have 4,000+ new as threatening their preferred position in IIsrael and for the US, both of which cases and close to 100 deaths each day; the kingdom) and continued economic have strategic interests in the country, total deaths so far are 7,500+). The eco- hardship. which acts as a bulwark against extremists. nomic blow from the pandemic has been “The deaths of nine COVID patients in a Jordan’s Palestinian population, as well, is very difficult, coming on the baseline of an government hospital in Salt after its oxygen pacified by its Hashemite rulers, to some economy already not doing well, and the supply ran out, in March, led to several extent; a Palestinian uprising on Israel’s public is frustrated by what it sees as moves days of street protests in Amman and other border with Jordan would be a disaster. by the regime to use the pandemic as an cities, defying curfews and fueled by eco- But Dr. Oded Eran, a former Israeli am- excuse to increase regime power and nomic grievances and complaints of cor- bassador to Jordan and a senior research further restrict civil liberties, especially ruption and government incompetence.” fellow at INSS, said that the conflict freedom of expression. According to a report by The Wall Street between the king and his half-brother itself “There has been a kind of ‘background Journal, King Abdullah and Prince Hamzah isn’t one in which relations with Israel really noise’ of popular dissent since 2011, played very different roles when they came figure. peaking in 2018 and last year, which to visit Salt. Abdullah spent his time criti- “I don’t think that there is any difference doesn’t threaten the regime but shows that cizing local officials, while Hamzah sat with between them on Israel or Jordan’s relation- the situation is not good. Much of it is con- mourning families. That itself may have ships overall,” he said.

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There have been recent conflicts between episode suggesting threats from inside his Jordan and Israel. At the beginning of “The population family, he said: March, Israel blocked a planned visit by is still patriotic “The current situation does not seem to Jordanian Crown Prince Hussein bin and largely loyal pose a significant threat to the stability of Abdullah to the Al-Aqsa Mosque. The next the Hashemite monarchy, because the pop- day, Jordan refused for several hours to to the ruling ulation is still patriotic and largely loyal to grant overflight permission to Israeli Prime family.” the ruling family, although not necessarily Minister Netanyahu’s helicopter, for a to its bureaucracy and policies. Jordanians planned visit to the UAE. (Netanyahu also recognize that the region is rife with ended up canceling the visit, in any case.) instructive examples of the negative results But Dr. Eran said that those are more of popular uprisings, and they fear the about the individual personalities involved, chaos they saw in and Syria. But in a sense, than the two countries’ relations. perhaps most importantly, dissatisfaction “This is more or less a reflection of per- with the government is diffuse, and there is sonal relations between the prime minister no competing, alternative power center. and the Jordanian king,” he said. “There is “This may be the significance of the no love lost between the two.” Prince Hamzah episode: His contacts with He also said that Jordan hasn’t pressed Dr. Oded Eran various tribal leaders and open criticism of Israel on Palestinian issues in a substantive the government and indirectly, of the king, way in recent years. led to the perceived need to nip in the bud Dr. Eran said, as Dr. Krasna had sug- And whatever the possible Saudi in- any sign of a challenge from within the gested, that external affairs are much less an volvement, the Kingdom of ruling elites (this would be unprecedented issue for Jordanian politics than internal was also quick to express their support for in Jordan, but certainly not in other Arab discontent. the Jordanian king. monarchies).” “The kingdom stresses its full support William Wechsler, director of the Rafik Will Jordan fall? for the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan… Hariri Center and Middle East Programs at and for the decisions and measures taken the Atlantic Council, told Ami: he concern that the international by King Abdullah II and Crown Prince “I don’t believe that King Abdullah is Tcommunity has about Jordan’s stabil- Hussein to safeguard security and stabil- specifically vulnerable to a coup driven by ity was clear in pronouncements of ity,” the Saudis said in a statement. internal royal family disputes—and what support—and calls to express that Still, Dr. Krasna said that King Abdullah happened recently was far from a coup support—that occurred after the dust-up faces real difficulties, no matter the attempt. between the half-brothers. King Abdullah amount of international support he gets “But more generally I think those in the clearly appears to have people supporting from phone calls. West and indeed some also in Israel sys- his rule. “It is difficult to see a clear way out of tematically understate the potential for in- “Support of the US is very important to the current, wider crisis,” he said. “It will stability in Jordan, preferring to believe the royal family and the king,” Dr. Eran be difficult for the government to imple- that it will always remain an ‘island of sta- said. “The calls made by President Biden ment policies to significantly alleviate the bility.’ Jordanian stability, which is vitally and Secretary of State Blinken were impor- social and economic distress caused by important to US interests and Israeli secu- tant, and they came at a very appropriate the pandemic—especially job creation rity, has been far more a product of effec- time from the king’s point of view.” and raising living standards. This is due to tive Jordanian leadership than any inherent Netanyahu didn’t rush to make such a the anticipated continued global slow- advantages that that country possesses. statement, perhaps because of the person- down, to budgetary challenges, and the Without such leadership the inherent ality conflicts that Dr. Eran mentioned. fiscal deficit (donors have long been drivers of instability will likely emerge. But a rival of his did. Blue and White pressing Jordan to make structural “Unfortunately, tribal dynamics com- leader Benny Gantz said last Sunday, “A changes and impose austerity steps—es- pounded by a weak economy and the con- strong and flourishing Jordan is a security pecially reduction of subsidies). Given tinuing pandemic, along with perceptions and economic interest for us, and we need these conditions, Jordan is in for a pro- of widespread corruption and crackdowns to do what we can to help them.” He also longed period of suffering, dissent and re- on legitimate dissent, serve to increase the made it clear that the actual conflict is an pression.” risk of instability and thus raise the re- internal Jordanian matter and one that Still, that doesn’t necessarily threaten quirements for even more wise, strategic Israel shouldn’t get involved in. King Abdullah’s reign, even with the latest leadership from the top.” l

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