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Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade

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Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service September 2021 Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade India Allows GE Soybean Meal Imports in Response to Soaring Domestic Meal Prices Soaring exports of India’s genetically engineered (GE)-free soybean meal, rising on strong demand from the United States and Europe, have created a perfect storm for India’s livestock producers. India’s total soybean meal exports in MY 2020/21 reached 1.9 million tons through May, more than double last year’s total. This dramatic increase has tightened supplies and boosted prices, negatively impacting feed margins. Domestic soybean meal prices diverged from global levels in early 2021 as supplies tightened and as exports continued. Prices at the end of August stood near $1,200/ton, roughly three-fold over average global prices. India’s poultry, egg, dairy, and aquaculture producers, who depend on domestic soybean meal for feed, pressured the Indian government to take historic action. On August 24, the Indian government relaxed its import policy through October 31 to allow up to 1.2 million tons of soybean meal only through Nhava Sheva port on the west coast and the Petrapole border crossing on the Bangladeshi border. On September 3, India announced these shipments could also arrive via three additional seaports – Mumbai, Tuticorin, and Visakhapatnam. India Soybean Meal Exports with Average Monthly Export Prices 400 $1,200 350 300 $1,000 250 $800 200 $600 150 $/MTs $400 Thousand Tons Thousand 100 50 $200 0 $0 India Exports* Brazil (Paranagua FOB) India (Mumbai FOB) Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry of India; International Grains Council. *Trade data available through May 2021 India’s move to allow GE soybean meal imports stands to benefit livestock and aquaculture producers. However, the government action has been criticized by activists questioning its legality and environmental safety. Others argue the government’s action is too late, as India’s soybean harvest will start arriving in October, helping to soften domestic soybean meal prices. India’s initial announcement allowing imports of GE soybean meal through October 31 (7 weeks from now), via only two ports – one land and one ocean port primarily for containers – appeared to limit bulk shipments from the United States and South America. Initially, this would have constricted the volume of meal that can enter. However, the opening of three additional seaports widens the opportunity for bulk shipments and introduces the possibility to divert shipments in transit to other Asian markets to meet the deadline. Given this, there is a better chance of reaching the 1.2-million-ton limit through direct or diverted bulk shipments from the United States and South America, though the longer sailing time means the window is still short. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA For email subscription, click here to register: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new PROJECTION FOR 2021/22 Global 2021/22 oilseed production is forecast at 629 million tons, slightly lower than August, primarily on Canada rapeseed production falling 2 million tons. This more than offsets gains in soybean production in the United States and peanut production in India. Oilseed imports are down marginally as lower rapeseed imports more than offset higher soybean imports. Exports are fractionally higher as larger soybean exports more than offset reduced Canada rapeseed exports. Global crush is cut over 1 million tons primarily on lower rapeseed crush in the EU, Canada, and the United States. Global ending stocks are boosted over 2 million tons as much larger soybean and sunflowerseed stocks more than offset a nearly 1-million-ton drop in rapeseed stocks. Global production of protein meals is forecast at 362 million tons, down 800,000 from August, primarily on lower rapeseed meal production. Protein meal imports are raised almost 1 million tons primarily on higher India soybean meal imports. Protein meal consumption and stocks are mostly unchanged. Global vegetable oil production, trade, and consumption are slightly lower while stocks are up nearly 1 million tons on higher palm oil stocks in Indonesia and India more than offsetting reductions of soybean and rapeseed oil stocks. The projected U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is down 95 cents to $12.90 per bushel. PROJECTION FOR 2020/21 Global 2020/21 oilseed production is forecast at 601 million tons. Production is boosted over 1 million tons from August on larger sunflowerseed production in Argentina, rapeseed production in Canada, EXPORT PRICES and peanut production in Senegal. Global oilseed imports are raised nearly 2 million tons on higher China soybean imports more than offsetting declines in rapeseed imports. Oilseed exports are up nearly 1 million tons on higher soybean exports from Argentina. Oilseed crush is down 1 million tons primarily on lower Argentina soybean crush. Global oilseed stocks are up 3 million tons on larger China and Brazil soybean and Argentina sunflowerseed stocks. Global protein meal production is down nearly 1 million tons on lower Argentina and U.S. soybean meal production. Protein meal imports are up about 700,000 tons mostly on higher India soybean meal imports. Global consumption and stocks are mostly unchanged. While global vegetable oil production is marginally lower, imports are cut nearly 2 million tons primarily on lower India palm oil imports. As a result, palm oil exports contract over 1 million tons on lower Indonesia exports with stocks raised 1 million mostly on higher Indonesia stocks. The projected U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is down 15 cents to $10.90 per bushel. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 September 2021 Global Market Analysis EXPORT PRICES August 2021 Soybean Export Prices U.S. Argentina Brazil August Avg Price $543/ton $535/ton $550/ton Change vs July - $12/ton + $3/ton - $2/ton Source: International Grains Council. All prices are FOB: U.S. Gulf, Argentina Up River, and Brazil Paranagua. August export prices for U.S. soybeans dropped slightly due to improved weather and anticipated weaker demand from China. Argentina prices held firm with growing China purchases, while Brazil prices declined slightly on a slower export pace. SOYBEAN EXPORT PRICES 650 610 570 530 490 450 US$/ton 410 370 Argentina (Up River) Brazil (Paranagua) U.S. (Gulf) August 2021 Soybean Meal Export Prices U.S. Argentina Brazil August Avg Price $422/ton $393/ton $418/ton Change vs July - $3/ton - $3/ton - $8/ton Source: International Grains Council. All prices are FOB: U.S. Gulf, Argentina Up River, and Brazil Paranagua. Prices for soybean meal in August were down slightly from July reflecting the downward trend in soybean prices. Brazil prices fell more to improve competitiveness with Argentina exports. SOYBEAN MEAL EXPORT PRICES 580 540 500 460 US$/ton 420 380 340 Argentina (Up River) Brazil (Paranagua) US (Gulf) Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 3 September 2021 Global Market Analysis August 2021 Soybean and Palm Oil Export Prices U.S. Argentina Brazil Indonesia Malaysia Soybean Oil Soybean Oil Soybean Oil Palm Oil Palm Oil August Avg Price $1,478/ton $1,301/ton $1,323/ton $1,184/ton $1,153/ton Change vs July - $76/ton + $57/ton + $51/ton + $82/ton + $73/ton Source: International Grains Council; all prices are FOB: U.S. Gulf, Argentina Up River, Brazil Paranagua U.S. soybean oil prices fell in August, while Argentina and Brazil prices rose. U.S. soybean oil prices fell as short- term prospects for expanded renewable diesel production declined along with export demand. Brazil and Argentina prices are up as buyers moved to cheaper South American supplies. Palm oil export prices rose on tighter supplies and tracking global soybean oil prices. SOYBEAN AND PALM OIL EXPORT PRICES 1,850 1,700 1,550 1,400 1,250 1,100 950 US$/ton 800 650 500 Argentina (Up River) Soy Oil Brazil (Paranagua) Soy Oil USA (Gulf) Soy Oil Indonesia Palm Oil Malaysia Palm Oil Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 4 September 2021 Global Market Analysis 2021/22 OUTLOOK CHANGES (All figures are in thousand metric tons) Country Commodity Attribute Previous Current Change Reason Reduced supplies on Argentina Oil, Soybean Exports 6,500 6,300 -200 higher biodiesel use Higher production and Australia Oilseed, Rapeseed Exports 3,450 4,000 550 reduced Canada competition Higher demand from Meal, Soybean Exports 0 400 400 India Lower demand given Oil, Palm Imports 1,740 1,540 -200 Bangladesh high oil prices Higher crush to meet Oilseed, Soybean Imports 2,650 3,150 500 increased India meal imports Burma Oil, Palm Imports 749 900 151 Increased trade pace Lower crush, reduced Meal, Rapeseed Exports 4,700 4,500 -200 supply Canada Reduced supplies on Oilseed, Rapeseed Exports 6,900 5,800 -1,100 lower yields Lower Canada rapeseed China Oilseed, Rapeseed Imports 2,100 1,850 -250 production and exports European Lower Canada rapeseed Oilseed, Rapeseed Imports 5,200 4,850 -350 Union production and exports Higher soybean meal demand, given India Meal, Soybean Imports 30 830 800 temporary exemption of GE ban United Oilseed, Soybean Imports 953 680 -273 Larger production States Oilseed, Soybean Exports 55,928 56,880 952 2020/21 OUTLOOK CHANGES (All figures are in thousand metric tons) Country Commodity Attribute Previous Current Change Reason Meal, Soybean Exports 28,500 28,200 -300 Weaker trade pace Argentina Oil, Soybean Exports 6,250 6,050 -200 Weaker trade pace Oilseed, Soybean Exports 3,700 5,200 1,500 Strong sales to China
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