MEDIA REPRESENTATION OF PAKISTAN’S DEMOCRACY, SOVEREIGNTY, AND PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ______

A Thesis

Presented to the

Faculty of

California State University, Fullerton ______

In Partial Fulfillment

of the Requirements for the Degree

Master of Arts

in

Sociology ______

By

Kornel Ul

Thesis Committee Approval:

Professor Edythe Krampe, Chair Professor Patricia Literte, Department of Sociology Professor Berna Torr, Department of Sociology Professor Patricia Little, Department of Sociology

Summer, 2016

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study is to analyze the perception of democracy, sovereignty, and public diplomacy in Pakistan through two newspaper publications, the Dawn and the

New York Times. I conducted a content analysis. This study uses the historical data about

Pakistan and two theories, modernization and realism, to analyze the above three factors.

Using a content analysis approach, 1,516 newspaper articles from a simple random sample of 90 dates from a 10-year period were read and analyzed. The end result of this analysis shows that the highest frequency of articles discussed weak sovereignty existing in Pakistan. Overall, the two theories are not sufficient to explain the social-political phenomena in Pakistan, as the theories are based in western approaches and do not encompass all aspects of Pakistani culture.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT ...... ii

TABLE OF CONTENTS ...... iii

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...... v

Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION ...... 1

Origins of Pakistan ...... 1 U.S. Involvement in Pakistan ...... 3 Origins of U.S. Drone Use in Pakistan ...... 6 Pakistan Today ...... 8 Electoral Representation ...... 8 Economy ...... 8 Education ...... 9 The Press and Pakistan ...... 10

2. LITERATURE REVIEW ...... 12

Modernization Theory ...... 12 The Socioeconomics of Modernization ...... 13 Democracy ...... 15 Realist Theory ...... 16 Sovereignty ...... 17 Public Diplomacy ...... 19 Framing Theory ...... 21 Hypothesis ...... 22

3. METHODOLOGY ...... 24

Operational Definitions ...... 24 Democracy ...... 24 Sovereignty ...... 26 Public Diplomacy ...... 28 Data Sources ...... 31 Procedure ...... 33 Pilot Study ...... 34

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4. RESULTS ...... 37

Table 1. Relevant Articles Found in the Dawn and NYT ...... 37 Democracy ...... 38 Stable Democracy ...... 38 Weak Democracy ...... 39 Sovereignty ...... 40 Stable Sovereignty ...... 40 Weak Sovereignty ...... 41 Public Diplomacy ...... 45 Formal Public Diplomacy ...... 46 Informal Public Diplomacy ...... 46

5. DISCUSSION ...... 48

Democracy ...... 48 Sovereignty ...... 50 Public Diplomacy ...... 51 Theoretical Relevance ...... 52 Limitations ...... 54 Recommendations for Future Research...... 55 Conclusion ...... 56

REFERENCES ...... 58

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This thesis is dedicated to Alan Emery who passed away recently. Without him, the creation of this thesis would have never formed. I thank my family, friends, and girlfriend for supporting me thus far, the support you have given me is tremendous. I am eternally grateful for Edythe Krampe for being my chair, and providing guidance and assistance throughout this process of the thesis. I thank Cynthia Burns for giving me direction in regards to the historical portions of my chapters and literature review of this thesis. Also, I thank Megan, and the people from the graduate learning center who also helped me out on the thesis as well, my committee members, and anyone else I may have forgotten.

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CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

This chapter will be focusing on historical discourse in Pakistan. It will investigate the origins of Pakistan, its relationship with the United States, and the use of drones by the United States. This will be followed by a discussion on the current demographics of Pakistan that covers its electoral representation, economy, educational system, and the press.

ORIGINS OF PAKISTAN

Before the nation of Pakistan was established as an independent nation in 1947, it was part of India. Pakistan’s history originated with Muslims who migrated to the region, and with the indigenous people who converted to Islam. These two groups had helped establish a community within India that had lasted for a thousand years. When Britain came to the region in the middle of the 18th century, it imposed its colonial rule with the aid of the British India East Company. Muslims were infuriated and fought against the occupation resulting in a state of war against Britain that lasted almost a hundred years.

Nonetheless, the British East India Company enacted political and legal reforms in India that had far reaching consequences (Ahsan 2003).

Following its success in the war of 1857 with India, the British-Indian government proceeded to impose western institutions in the country, including western style education. The colonial powers in India invited various community representatives

2 to join the Imperial Legislative Council and established the Indian National Congress in

1885. These entities advanced a series of ‘reforms’ that enabled Hindu dominance in jobs and in other aspects of life. The Muslim community saw these reforms as threats to their interests in India, which created the seeds for legitimizing their claim of being a separate nation-state from India (Ahsan 2003).

Pakistan’s originators had noble goals, as they wished to be exemplary in terms of welfare, order, justice to its citizens, and providing sanctuary from the Hindu majority of

India (Cohen 2002). Most of Pakistan’s early leaders, including founder Quaid-e-Azam

Muhammad Ali Jinnah, were Muslims from northern India and Bengal who advocated for a more westernized democracy (Cohen 2002). Jinnah believed in pushing for a western-style democracy and set forth a political agenda that became the foundation of

Pakistan’s government (Gilani 2006).

Jinnah initially joined the Indian National Congress and worked with Hindu leaders to help India gain independence from Britain. His position later changed as he found himself disagreeing with the Hindu majority on two issues. Namely, he favored peaceful protests as opposed to what Hindu extremists supported, and he believed that cast centric Hindus did not wish to recognize Muslims as equal citizens in India (Gilani

2006). These views compelled him to support the creation of a state separate from India.

After Pakistan’s independence a year prior to his death, he became depressed as a result of the conflict that came with the new nation’s separation from India (Cohen 2002). He died in 1948, with concerns about the future Pakistan faced while establishing itself as a nation-state (Cohen 2002).

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Since the establishment of Pakistan in 1947, the nation’s sovereignty has been unstable. The transfer of political power from the leaders to the general public has been limited (Sail 2011). Power was transferred only to a few well-informed people who seized the opportunity to gain power, creating its ruling class (Sail 2011). Three factors created this socio-political situation: The first is the lack of mobilization skills among the general public, who are unable to assume national responsibilities (Sail 2011). Secondly, the Pakistani people were stripped of their rights and social programs, through the imposition of martial laws, as well as the dissolution of national parties, assemblies, and political administrations (Sail 2011). Thirdly, the nation’s resources were unequally redistributed, limiting economic growth and the government’s ability to run proper social programs. Past administrations have reneged on promises and made weak administrative decisions regarding the development of democratic rule in the country (Sail 2011).

U.S. Involvement in Pakistan

The United States has had a long-standing relationship with Pakistan. For the first five years of Pakistan’s existence (1947-1952), both Franklin Delano Roosevelt and

Harry Truman remained seemingly apathetic to the U.S.’s relationship with the new nation. This dynamic changed in 1953, as the spread of Communism became a major concern for the U.S. and the Eisenhower administration took a sudden interest in Pakistan as a potential ally during the Cold War (Gilani 2006).

Pakistan further strengthened its relationship with the U.S. through the signing of treaties in the mid-1950s by joining the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) and the

South East Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) (Gilani 2006). Pakistan continued to bolster its relations with the United States by allowing the U.S. to conduct surveillance

4 flights over the Soviet Union from Pakistani bases (Gilani 2006). During this period, the

U.S. also supplied weapons to Pakistan which were used successfully in the 1965 war with India. During 1971, Pakistani government helped the U.S. to establish relations with

China by providing a discreet meeting on a Pakistan Airlines flight to Beijing (Gilani

2006).

After Pakistan’s 1970 general elections, India took advantage of the political chaos that had been brewing in the region for several years, and attacked the eastern wing of Pakistan (present-day Bangladesh) with military support from the USSR (Gilani 2006).

The Pakistani government asked the U.S. for assistance in the matter but it was never provided. After the war, the country split into two regions: Bangladesh and Pakistan.

The United States began strengthening ties with Pakistan after the Iranian revolution in 1976 and more so after the USSR invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 (Gilani

2006). The period between 1979 and 1988 served as the “golden age of diplomacy” between the United States and Pakistan (Gilani 2006). By this time, Pakistan was a shell of its former self. Instead of the democratic state that its founders had envisioned, it was now ruled by its military, which had taken over the government in a military coup in

1977 (Gilani 2006). The U.S.-Pakistan alliance succeeded in blocking the Soviet Union from the Persian Gulf and resulted in the Soviet Union’s departure from Afghanistan in

1988 (Gilani 2006). During this period, both the U.S. and Pakistani governments focused mostly on security interests, in what can be considered a short-term and rather short- sighted relationship, lacking any real economic policy, infrastructure, or projects that served the longer term interests of both countries (Gilani 2006).

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The military alliance between the two nations caused further instability with bombings, the rise of political polarization, and the military regime in Pakistan (Gilani

2006). Even more problematic was the rise of ethnic and religious violence in the region.

During this time, India began its nuclear development and in response, Pakistan began the development of its own nuclear weapon capability (Gilani 2006). The U.S. ostensibly opposed the Pakistani government’s plan, yet took no action against it because of its desire to prevent the expansion of the Soviet Union (Gilani 2006). Accordingly, when the

USSR left Afghanistan, the U.S. lost interest in Southern Asia (Gilani 2006).

From 1988 to 1998, the Pakistani democratic administrations did not always work in the public’s best interest. Rather, the political administration focused on politics and did little to establish social or economic reform (Gilani 2006). The U.S. left Afghanistan in ruins, rife with civil war, and without any strategy for reconstruction. Shortly thereafter, $4.02 billion in aid that was originally promised to Pakistan was annulled because of U.S. sanctions levied against Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal (Gilani 2006).

In May of 1998, Pakistan exploded six nuclear devices in response to India’s nuclear testing phase. As a consequence, the United States pushed for more sanctions against Pakistan, which in turn weakened Pakistan’s economy, and created a surge of ethnic and religious violence in the region (Gilani 2006).

All in all, the instability in the region served as a catalyst for the bloodless coup in

October of 1999 (Gilani 2006). General Pervez Musharraf, the Pakistani Army’s Chief of

Staff, assumed control over the country. Unlike previous military rulers, he observed freedom of press, did not appease religious conservatives, or impose martial law, and removed elite bureaucrats, politicians, and senior military officers (Gilani 2006).

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However, he did remove some of his rivals, political opponents, and even those who helped him establish power for his political order in the first place (Chellaney 2001).

It is likely that General Musharraf’s political views were influenced by his parents who migrated to Pakistan and who were inspired by Jinnah, one of the founders of

Pakistan (Cohen 2002). Several political analysts agree with Musharraf’s self- classification as a political moderate who wishes to restore civilian rule (Cushing 2003).

His success in carrying out a bloodless coup is not necessarily due to his timing, but rather to the lack of resistance from the public that had likely forgotten the military coups of the past (Haqqani 2006). However, Haqqani (2006) argues that like every other military ruler who has overthrown a democratically elected government, Musharraf would not give up power easily. Further, Haqqani (2006) predicted that Musharraf would state that he would turn over his power to elected representatives as soon as they were done restoring stability, but like those before him, would not give up their power in advance. In August 2008, having lost international support and facing impeachment,

Musharraf resigned from the presidential office (Goodson 2008). Thus began a period of modern democracy in Pakistan, which had been left rife with serious challenges, including a rising insurgency, declining popular trust in the government, and poverty amongst the masses (Goodson 2008).

Origins of U.S. Drone Use in Pakistan

Drones were first used in 1994, when the first one was sent out as a spy plane and observation platform. The usage of drones as reconnaissance aircraft continued during the bombing campaign in Bosnia in 1995 and again in 1999. (Williams 2010). Between May

1992 and December 1995, Bosnia became a focal point, ravaged by ethnic conflicts, as

7 well as ideological, religious, and historical grievances. In May of 1994, the Bosnian-

Serb forces violated the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) zone that held heavy weaponry in the region (Paczulla 2004). Provoked by this violation, NATO, launched air strikes against the Bosnian-Serb headquarters in 1995. After NATO, accomplished its mission, the engagement came to an end in Bosnia, and the air attack later came to be viewed as an intervention on humanitarian grounds (Paczulla 2004).

The decision to arm the Predator drone and use it as a tool for assassination came in the late 2000s. At this time, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) was already flying unarmed Predators over Afghanistan from Uzbekistan in search of Osama Bin Laden

(Williams 2010). The CIA was targeting Osama Bin Laden and other members of the Al-

Qaeda leadership through armed drones (Williams 2010). In February 2001, in accordance with this mission, General Atomics, the drone manufacturer, developed laser- guided hellfire missiles (Williams 2010). Although the heavily armed version of the drone was ready to fly, the head of the CIA held serious ethical and legal concerns about the use of this new technology. These concerns, however, were put to rest after

September 11th 2001, when George W. Bush approved a presidential order that enabled assassination hits on Al-Qaeda and to kill Osama Bin Laden (Williams 2010).

The drone strikes that began under the George W. Bush administration continued for over a decade, and intensified during the Obama administration. Today the United

States is reportedly using drone strikes to kill alleged militants in four nations:

Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia (Boyle 2013).

The U.S government cites the following four points when defending the use of drones. The first point is that drones cause little casualties and are effective in targeting

8 the correct terrorists. Secondly, drone use has been successful in killing high value targets. Thirdly, a drone strike can hinder the ability of a terrorist’s organizations to attack. Finally, and perhaps the most compelling point, is that the use of drones is a better military tactic than the deployment of troops (Boyle 2013).

I am interested in the use of drones by the U.S. in Pakistan because the United

States has conducted drone operations in Pakistan for the purpose of targeting insurgent groups operating in Pakistan. Originally designated as spy planes, drones were used non- lethally until the end of 2003. Lethal usage of drones in Pakistan first occurred in June

2004. Further escalation of its lethal use transpired in August of 2008 (Williams 2010). I view drone use by the U.S as significant to this study as it may represent a flagrant violation of sovereignty in Pakistan.

PAKISTAN TODAY

Electoral Representation

The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (2015) or

IDEA, reported high voter turnout during 2013 election in Pakistan, with 53% non- compulsory voters turning up to vote. In 2013, IDEA (2015) reported one-hundred and ten million voters out of the Pakistani population of approximately 193 million.

Furthermore, it has been consistently shown that at least 35 percent of the population has participated in elections since 1977.

Economy

In terms of trade within the economy, the Central Intelligence Agency’s (2015)

Fact Book identifies clothing as Pakistan’s main export. According to the Massachusetts

Institute of Technology (2015), Pakistan’s main import is petroleum. The economy does

9 seem stable, with a GDP of approximately 890 US$ Billion, and is ranked as the 28th largest economy in the world as of 2014 (Central Intelligence Agency 2015).

Future development does seem hopeful, especially with the expansion of the

Chinese-Pakistan railway that has created opportunities for more trade between Pakistan and the West (Ahmad 2016). However, underlying economic problems prevent Pakistan from competing on the global scale. According to the CIA, most of Pakistan’s economic activity is considered ‘informal,’ as most transactions and currency exchanges go unreported. The country has lost 40% of the value of its own currency since 2007, and growth of the country is considered slow in comparison with other developing countries, averaging 3.5% per year from 2008-2014 (Central Intelligence Agency 2015).

Pakistan’s unemployment rate is around 6.8%, but this may mask higher underemployment due to the country’s economic structure (Central Intelligence Agency

2015. Moreover, the ratio of tax collection against the national gross domestic product

(the overall tax revenue as a percentage of GDP) has declined from 14 percent in the

1960s to 10 percent in the 1980s. In the 2014/15 fiscal year this figure further declined to

9.45%. The decline in tax revenue results in a reduction of public funding for basic infrastructure and social programs. Furthermore, these figures do not take into account that the census in Pakistan has not been updated in two decades, and that a majority of politicians have not filed taxes within the past few years (Ahmad 2016)

Education

The education system in Pakistan appears unstable. Currently, its education spending as a percentage of GDP in comparison to the rest of the world stands near the very bottom of the list at 164th out of 173 countries surveyed (Central Intelligence

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Agency 2015). As of 2015, the overall literacy rate of Pakistan is 57.9%; 69.5% of all males and 45.8% of all females are considered literate (Central Intelligence Agency

2015). Although education is free, it is not mandatory to attend the Pakistani school system. Moreover, the Pakistani school system from primary school to the university level faces institutional challenges ranging from: lack of access, inadequate quality, and poor educational outcomes (Aziz, Bloom, Humair, Jimenez, et.alt. 2014).

The Press and Pakistan

There are three influential newspapers in Pakistan: the Dawn, the Daily Jang, and the Business Recorder. The newspaper publications in Pakistan collect a total of $120 million USD annually from advertising revenue, 30 percent of which comes from the

Pakistani government, their largest advertiser (Quick 2003). Primarily published and sold in cities, however, these newspapers have a relatively low level of circulation. Moreover, due to the low literacy rate of its population, Pakistani people face an additional barrier to accessing information from these sources.

Pakistan has had a long history of coercion against journalists who are critical against the government, even under General Musharraf, who enabled a more liberal policy (Quick 2003). More freedom was given to the press in 1999. Taking advantage of this freedom, the print media published articles portraying negative popular sentiment towards the Pakistani government (Khan and Safdar 2010).

As in Pakistan, there are three influential newspapers in the United States: the

New York Times, USA Today, and the Wall Street Journal. In general, growth of newspaper publications has stagnated over the years in the United States. This has been attributed to the rise of the Internet, and the presence of cable news networks. These

11 publications are still reliant on advertising, which makes up the majority of their budgets

(Quick 2003).

In general, despite freedom of the press, the government can and does use other coercive means to influence news media in the U.S., including arranging official press conferences, managing what the newspapers can print, and secret conversations during public gatherings with journalists (Quick 2003). Media consultants are hired by nearly every governmental agency in the U.S. and money is spent by these agencies to control the narrative (Quick 2003). Despite the democratic setup that allows the media to operate freely from government, American newspapers often mirror their own government’s foreign policies (Khan and Safdar 2010).

In this thesis, I will be using one Pakistani and one U.S. newspaper to conduct a content analysis. From these publications, I will collect data and frame the operation of democracy, sovereignty, and public diplomacy in Pakistan between 2005 and 2014.

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CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

The two social and political theories used in this thesis are meant to explain the portrayal of Pakistan’s democracy, sovereignty, and public diplomacy in newspaper articles. Modernization theory focuses on the sociological aspect of Pakistan’s democracy, and explains the ongoing historical instability in the region. Realist theory focuses on the political spectrum that embraces these two concepts: sovereignty and public diplomacy. Sovereignty and public diplomacy demonstrate how these states talk to each other, and the possible motivation behind the usage of drone strikes. I also discuss the research questions relating to the concepts of democracy, sovereignty, and public diplomacy. Moreover, I discuss framing in this chapter because I am using newspaper articles in my study. Framing provides a lens to view the operation of democracy, sovereignty and public diplomacy in this thesis.

MODERNIZATION THEORY

Modernization theory had its origins during the 1950s and 1960s after the end of

World War II (Hinnebush 2006). Social scientists use the term “modernization” for several reasons. One reason is that it is already part of popular speech. Secondly, modernization theory recognizes changes that occur on spectrums at the micro-macro level. Within modernization theory, such changes can be noticed in-between these spectrums, and can be correlated to one another (Bernstein 1971). These fluctuations in

13 society can range from social, economic, and individual attitudes that enable countries to have a process of changes similar to the democratic developments in Europe and the

United States (Bernstein 1971). This definition of modernization is constructed with the idea that at a certain point, society cannot, due to economic progress and societal evolution, maintain the traditional authoritarian model of control (Hinnebush 2006).

Similar to the Durkheimian perspective, in which modernization is expressed as the process by which an underdeveloped nation emerges to its more developed state, modernization theory pertains more to the transitional phases in a country’s development

(Bernstein 1971).

The Socioeconomics of Modernization

Economically speaking, a modern democracy can occur only under a specific set of circumstances in a capitalistic economy. Modernization theory, established by Lipset

(1959), argues that the stronger a nation’s set of capitalistic characteristics, the greater the chances that it will sustain a democracy. In short, democracy is related to the state of economic development. In general, less developed countries or traditional societal models within nations tend to have basic (survivalist) economies, are underdeveloped, experience high rates of poverty, contain social disparity, and tend to be authoritarian.

With greater socioeconomic development, these negative traits would be less likely to occur in the traditional order (Moaddel 1994). When this process occurs, the modern state has greater potential to improve literacy, education, economic security, and to promote secularism. Greater socioeconomic development in the context of a democracy also incentivizes political groups to take less abrasive tactics to accomplish their goals.

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Although both traditional and modern systems experience societal conflict, conflict has historically been expressed through different means. Democratic societies that are economically healthier are more established because of a stronger middle class.

They will be more likely to tolerate rough patches of conflict and maintain their status as democratic state (Vassilev 1999).

When modernization is successful, the transition from a traditional authoritarian nation to a modern democratic state can yield positive results. It transforms the political system by expanding administrative institutionalization, as well as rational decision- making in government. The process also increases the legitimacy and usefulness of the political system and enhances the civic abilities of the people. As a result, citizens are more involved in the political process of democracy, their rights are more protected, and class conflict is expressed through democratized elections (Moaddel 1994).

This transformation results in a stable government system, less conflict, and an expansion of the division of labor throughout the international sphere. In terms of international development, this enables otherwise more traditional states to engage in a process of modernization that can shape and advance their national values, technology, and skills. These international ties can also accelerate the process of modernization within that traditional state (Moaddel 1994).

However, despite high levels of modernization existing in a country, the process can still fail to trigger a democracy in authoritarian regimes (Hinnebusch 2006). To add to this argument, less developed countries might not be able to attain the democratic process simply because its citizens react faster than the economic and political structure necessary to achieve or maintain a democratic system (Hinnebusch 2006). When a

15 revolution or a revolt takes place, and that mobilized social movement is successful, the outcome of said revolution or revolt can lead to the formation of other types of governance that are not necessarily democratic. In some cases, social revolt can lead to various forms of authoritarianism (Hinnebusch 2006). Another limiting aspect of modernization theory is its challenge in identifying the threshold at which authoritarianism is no longer viable in the modernization process (Hinnebusch 2006).

Democracy

Around the fifth century B.C., the ancient Greeks implemented the original basis for modern democracy, in the first recorded form of group governance in which each citizen had a say in who would conduct policy and administer common rules and laws

(Ehrenberg 1950). Democracy, in its most basic form, means rule by the people. A more refined definition of democracy is a procedure selected by the masses through the electoral process, in which individuals compete for power (Lipset 1994).

Lipset (1994) has identified that the presence of democracy has been shown to be associated with greater national well-being and prosperity, but points out the possible contradiction. That a democracy can “function” despite there being economic inequality and political involvement by the citizens. This inconsistency can give way to unfortunate consequences such as social tension, institutional distortions, instability, and recurring violence. Lipset (1994) implies that such economic inequality may even prevent the creation of a democratic state. He argues that instability in many nascent democracies is due to their failure to meet such basic criteria. He argues that a democracy requires a strong middle class and increased access to education.

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These ideas have been widely discussed for centuries. Lipset (1994), in essence, borrows and expands on ideas from the Greek philosopher Aristotle. Aristotle envisioned the same ideal in which only a few lived in poverty and the majority of citizens were at least well off. Aristotle feared that a failure to maintain this ideal would give way to a leader who would not be rational, and who would base the political dialogue on prejudice to get support from the common people (Barro 1999).

REALIST THEORY

The realist theoretical approach is a framing device for the interactions between self-governing nation-states within the international realm of politics (Guzzini 2004).

Realist theory is more centered on the concept of power, and how states interact with one another in the struggle to gain power (Guzzini 2004). Realists largely believe that the balance of power between nations determines international relations, and to understand one (balance of power) is to comprehend the other (relations) (Rosenberg 1990).

Realists generally hold a pessimistic view of human nature and are doubtful of the possibility of eradicating conflict and war. States within the international system seek power in order to better their respective position amongst states that participate in the international process, or to enhance their own national security (Guzzini 2004). Also, realist theory discusses that the survival of one’s own state serves as a primary interest in international relations (Grieco 1988).

Realist theory argues that a nation desires to compare itself to other countries in all forms of societal and political life, and does so with the intent of competing against them. The state also attempts to maximize its own power, although it may give up pursuit of this opportunity in order to hinder the progress of a similar nation. This is done in

17 order to maintain a state’s own dominance (Grieco 1988). Furthermore, the status quo is also a concern of states in international policy because it can advance the stronger state’s position within the global system.

In realist theory, the question the state actors always ask when conducting relations with another state is, “Who is to gain the most out of this relationship?” The realist theoretical position holds the view that the one who has a greater advantage has the most to gain within that relationship. As a result, the nation-state that profits the most out of the relationship may actually implement a policy aimed at disrupting, destroying, or damaging its partner (Grieco 1988). Within international relations, the idea of cooperation amongst states in the realist framework is focused on power dynamics. When it appears that the weaker party in the relationship is succeeding too well and that the power dynamic may shift, the stronger party may decline to join future ventures, leave abruptly, or limit its commitment. This is how the more dominant state can maximize the potential use of its power/role in that relationship, usually at the expense of another state

(Grieco 1988).

The criticism of realist theory is that it fails to recognize the international force of others, or of nations which abstain when it comes to participating in international relations (Thomson 1995). Critics of realist theory further argue that sovereignty is more about how a state is able to participate in international relations than it is about its power to make claims of doing so (Thomson 1995).

Sovereignty

Democracy simply cannot exist without sovereignty. A nation of any size exercises some degree of self-rule (Coppedge, Gerring, Altman, et al. 2011). The

18 contemporary concept of sovereignty is based upon the idea that states recognize each other’s authorities within a territory (Croxton 1999). Although this notion has existed throughout centuries, it was practically non-existent in medieval and feudal-era politics, in which few countries were willing to recognize each other’s authorities. This was because the idea of “final authority” or “absolute authority,” which supported the argument that a state became the “only” authority, was commonplace in that era (Croxton

1999).

During the medieval and feudal eras, the refusal of political authorities to recognize multiple authorities often led to bickering and unfruitful efforts. In 17th- century Europe, for instance, the Pope or the Emperor, who represented God, could recognize multiple authorities (Croxton 1999). The treaty of Westphalia of 1648 is credited with accomplishing the goal of recognizing national self-determination, as well as establishing the origins of modern-day sovereignty (Croxton 1999). Scholar Janie

Thomson (1995) has defined modern-day sovereignty more appropriately as “the recognition in which internal and external actors of the states have exclusive authority to intervene coercively in activities within its territory” (Thomson 1995:219).

Key aspects that serve as empirical evidence of stable sovereignty are the ability of the state to conduct its own affairs without outside interference, the recognition by other states to recognize the nation itself, the control of its population through the use of laws or other coercive means, and the capacity of the state to maintain control and authority over its territory.

Evidence of the decline of sovereignty mirrors that of stable sovereignty. First, scholars point to a decline of legitimate authority results in the likelihood that other states

19 will fail to recognize a nation’s sovereignty. Secondly, a nation’s inability to hold off outside interference in its own affairs, as well as a failure to govern its own people, signal a decline in sovereignty. Thirdly, the decline of a nation’s sovereignty is marked by a difficulty in maintaining authority over its own territory. The last indication of weakened sovereignty is that a nation-state does not have the ability to govern its own population, and uphold its own laws (Thomson 1995).

The realist conceptual application of sovereignty is that if a nation is in a stronger position or a similar position to the stronger party, its territorial integrity will be maintained. This comes with a caveat; this is theoretically only as viable and as strong as a nation’s power will allow it to be (Rosenberg 1990).

The realist environment tends to generate a battle-royale system, and it is a system in which a state must look for the more favorable military position. The state’s power becomes a system of means and gains through the balance of interests and alliances.

Discussing how much power the state has, and how that translates into foreign talks contributes to the understanding of how the balance of power tends to play out.

Generally speaking, if a state has too much power, other states of similar stature will attempt to compete with it for equal measure. However, if a state is considered weaker than another, the resulting dynamic between the two nations will be one in which the stronger nation will dictate relations according to their power relationship (Rosenberg

1990).

Public Diplomacy

Diplomacy is a key component of international life. The discussion of ideas, intents, purposes, and even respective sovereignties, between states, is crucial to the

20 development of healthy international relationships. Diplomacy has existed for a millennium or more. The Greek-derived term for “diplomacy” was partly based upon the study of authorized handwriting in order to ensure that the credentials of the writer were legitimate. Today, the term has evolved in meaning to describe how states communicate with one another.

Most scholars would say that the usage of traditional diplomacy is declining in significance. It is still quite relevant, but not as important (Sharp 1999). Generally speaking, traditional diplomacy is challenging to measure and evaluate, as it is often interpersonal, secretive, slow and formal (Gilboa 2001). Given this notion, diplomatic communication throughout history has been interpreted as “government-to-government” interaction. Today, government communication has expanded beyond the traditional means of diplomacy to include “government-to-people communication” (Wang 2006).

In the modern era, foreign publics are becoming more important, and states are starting to take note. A state’s capacity to produce and manage a favorable image of itself for the foreign public has been a key trademark of public diplomacy, and this image is considered the public face of traditional diplomacy (Wang 2006). Public diplomacy is an extension of the traditional means of communication between states. In more concise terms, public diplomacy is a means for governing bodies to communicate their goals through the use of media, lobbying governments, public relations, or some combination of the three. Through the use of public diplomacy, the state aims to foster in a foreign public an understanding of the nation’s ideals, culture, institutions, policies, and goals

(Wang 2006).

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Realist thought about public diplomacy is based on two primary motivations: the state’s importance in the political system, and the concern for its own power and security

(Yun & Toth 2009). A state can run a diplomatic system that treats public diplomacy as a means to propagandize its agenda, and applies this method based upon its relation to each individual state. State actors aim to influence other states’ positions, polices, and governments through their public, rather than through more official channels. This approach has the intent and end goal of using the foreign public to influence the government and the attitudes of its citizens, in order to dictate both domestic and international policy decisions (Yun & Toth 2009).

Framing Theory

Framing is important in the use of newspaper articles because it selects information about a topic and interprets it. Framing as defined by Khan and Salfarda

(2010) as the media interpretation of the social construction created by a social phenomenon. The use of media, including newspaper articles, is a way to influence beliefs and opinions. The method of framing does this by portraying a perspective that is either “in favor of” said concept or “opposed to it” (Khan and Salfarda 2010). Framing helps with analyzing said phenomena by providing greater understating about current issues or events. In some regards, framing selectively portrays some societies’ morals, values, and cultural features. Framing also helps contextualize news material by analyzing causes, making moral judgments, and offering solutions for certain societal problems (De Vreese 2005).

The sociological foundation for framing pertains mostly to the interpretation of words, images, and phrases that are used to construct news stories. Framing is a method

22 of interpretation that helps analyze how something that is considered a meaningless event becomes meaningful. Journalists organize pieces of information and package them for interpretation by their audiences through different patterns (Borah 2011). Framing provides a shortcut for the reader; journalists organize information and package it for easy interpretation. In some ways journalists may use framing to manipulate information

(Khan and Salfarda 2010). This is done through the exclusion or highlighting of information which might lead individuals to think about issues differently (Borah 2011).

There are debates within the literature on framing theory. The application of studies that employ this theory is challenging due to unclear conceptualization resulting from lack of data in a given field of inquiry. Also, some scholars argue that using one approach towards framing is undesirable, and that it is better to introduce and utilize more than one frame (Borah 2011).

Framing is integral to this study because the newspaper I am using packages the data I am researching. The theory is used to recognize that the social-political phenomenon in Pakistan which I am studying is viewed through the lens of these two periodicals.

HYPOTHESIS

The purpose of this study is to enhance understanding about Pakistan’s democracy, sovereignty, and public diplomacy through a content analysis of one

Pakistani and one American periodical. The study aims to address the need for information about and analysis of the social-political phenomena in Pakistan. Based on the theories I have reviewed; I present three hypotheses in this thesis. First, I hypothesize that the Dawn and the New York Times will depict weak democracy in Pakistan. This

23 hypothesis is based on the discussion by the CIA (2015) on the Pakistani economy and on

Lipset’s outcomes of modernization. Secondly, I hypothesize that both of these publications will demonstrate weak Pakistani sovereignty. This hypothesis is based on a study of the power-dynamic relationship between Pakistan and the U.S. in the context of realism, as described by Rosenberg (1990). Thirdly, I hypothesize that the Dawn and the

New York Times could portray weak public diplomatic relations between Pakistan and the

U.S. This final hypothesis is based on the discussion about the relationship between the

Pakistan and the U.S. by Gilani (2006), which suggested a strained relationship at times.

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CHAPTER 3

METHODOLOGY

The operational definitions for content analysis are drawn are drawn from the concepts and theories discussed in Chapter Two. This chapter presents the operational definitions of democracy, sovereignty, and public diplomacy, the principal concepts measured in the thesis, and aims to help answer the research questions. In this chapter, I also discuss the data sources used, the procedure with which the information was collected, and the pilot study.

OPERATIONAL DEFINITIONS

I have broadened the terms democracy, sovereignty, and public diplomacy to maximize the likelihood of finding descriptions or discussions of these concepts in my data collection.

Democracy

I derived the operational definitions for democracy from Lipset’s (1994) and

(1959) work on the socioeconomic development in a democracy, along with some historical analysis of its application from Chapter 1. I created categories for two types of democracy: stable democracy and weak democracy. Stable democracy refers to a system characterized by economic stability, elected officials, free public education, or a stable middle class. Weak democracy refers to a system characterized by economic instability, control by a ruling class, or rule by military coup.

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Stable democracy

The first characteristic, economic stability, is based on Lipset’s (1959) study, as well as his work on the economy and its importance for the maintenance of a stable democracy. I classified any article showing economic growth, economic stability, a rise in gross domestic product (GDP), or a positive economic overview of Pakistan as indicating stable democracy. I also considered the availability of free public education, or a public education system, as a second indicator of stable democracy (Lipset 1994). This operational definition assesses whether the Pakistani education system is indeed free of cost and is accessible.

Based on Lipset’s (1994) work, any mention of elected officials is a third indicator of a stable democratic system. The presence of elected officials implies that there is a procedure for power transfer that is executed by the masses through an electoral process. This classification will be used when discussing political officials that are either elected, or in the process of being elected. The final indicator, a stable middle class, was selected because of Lipset’s (1994) emphasis on the maintenance of the middle class for a stable democracy. This classification is used when an article discusses evidence that the middle class is growing, or has a stable presence in Pakistan.

Weak democracy

One operational definition of weak democracy used in this study is the reference to a weak economy. This is based on Lipset’s (1959) discussion on economics and democracy, in which he states that if a nation’s economy is weak, then it would imply that a democracy is unlikely to be sustained. This operational definition includes the

26 discussion of a lack of faith in the Pakistani economic system, a loss in GDP, or some form of economic turmoil in the state.

I used the presence of control by a ruling class as another indicator of weak democracy. I base this operational definition on Sail’s (2011) discussion of the process whereby a ruling class took power in Pakistan. According to Lipset (1994), the presence of a ruling class is also a contra-indicator of a democratic nation because a democracy practices rule by the majority of people.

The final indicator of a weak democracy is military rule by coup, as this system of governance contradicts the idea of rule by people as discussed by Lipset (1994). I use this indicator when an article discusses the presence of a military ruler in Pakistan. This term is also based upon evidence that there was a military coup in Pakistan (Gilani, 2006). The classification will also look for articles that show evidence that a military coup has occurred again, or is occurring.

Sovereignty

The concept of sovereignty refers to a state’s right and capability to self-govern.

In his (1995) work, Thomson discusses the characteristics of stable and weak sovereignty. Based in part on his findings, I operationalize stable sovereignty with the following terms: self-authority and control, territorial integrity, and jurisdiction. I operationalize weak sovereignty with the following indicators: drone use by the U.S. in

Pakistan, terrorist attacks, indications that the Pakistani state is losing control over territories, lack of territorial integrity, little to no control over some of its laws or enforceable laws, and policy dictated by outside forces.

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Stable sovereignty

The first operational definition, that of self-authority and control, is met if an article discusses at least one of these two criteria: the ability of the Pakistani state to show that it has control over its own actions as a state, and that the state has the authoritative means to coerce its population (Thomson 1995). Such examples of the Pakistani state’s self-authority and control include conducting raids against terrorists, subjugating protesters, or conducting its own political affairs without outside interference.

I use another operational definition, territorial integrity, when it appears that

Pakistan has control and authority over its own territory (Thomson 1995). Examples of territorial integrity discussed in articles include active border patrols, enforced checkpoints along Pakistan’s borders, and other statements that represent this practice.

The final operational definition for territorial integrity that I use is jurisdiction.

Jurisdiction refers to the ability of the Pakistani state to enforce its own laws, a practice indicating the presence of a stable sovereignty (Thomson 1995).

Weak sovereignty

One operational definition of weak sovereignty is the violation of a state’s borders and overall territorial integrity. In the case of Pakistan, drone use by the U.S. in its national air space represents a violation of the state’s territorial integrity. Drone use and similar practices by an outside nation, imply that some policy is being dictated by an outside nation. Thomson (1995) claims that these practices signal that a state that has weak sovereignty.

Another operational definition of weak sovereignty, terrorist attacks, is met in an article that discusses a terrorist attack within the region of Pakistan. I am interested in this

28 operational definition in order to see if there is a trend of terrorist attacks throughout the

10-year period I studied. I am using an operational definition of internal terrorist attacks against Pakistan as an indicator that this country may be unable to drive out the terrorist groups in the region, or that Pakistan does not have the coercive means to subjugate such terrorist groups.

A third operational definition for weak sovereignty, loss of territorial integrity, is an indicator that Pakistan is losing control over their territories. This also implies weak sovereignty in Pakistan as suggested by Thomson (1995).

The fourth operational definition, little to no control over some of its laws or enforceable laws, is also based on Thomson’s (1995) conceptualization of weak sovereignty. A state must show a degree of control over its populace through the use and enforcement of laws. If an article argues that Pakistan is unable to control its citizens, I classified the article as indicating weak democracy.

The final operational definition of weak sovereignty is a condition in which a state’s policy is dictated by outside forces. I use this indicator when an article shows that

Pakistani policies are being dictated by outside forces. An example is any outside policy decision (but not related to drone strikes) conducted by the United States. This operational definition is an indicator of weak sovereignty because a state’s decision- making is being influenced by outside forces (Thomson 1995).

Public Diplomacy

A state’s capacity to produce and manage a favorable image of itself for the foreign public has been a key trademark of public diplomacy, and this image is considered the public face of traditional diplomacy. That public diplomacy is an

29 extension of the traditional means of the communication between states (Wang 2006).

Based on Wang (2006) and Gilboa (2001) divide public diplomacy into two subcategories, formal and informal.

Formal and informal public diplomacy address different aspects of Pakistan’s relations with other countries. Formal public diplomacy refers to those situations in which diplomacy is reported through the proper media channels and firsthand accounts.

Informal diplomacy generally deals with secondhand accounts that usually contain sources outside of the typical public diplomatic channels. Formal diplomacy would be measured by negotiation, print media, radio and television, and statecraft. Informal diplomacy would be measured by opinion pieces, letters to the editor, communications from religious leaders discussing Pakistan’s state of affairs, live or written interviews of political leaders or officials, and documentation of protests.

Formal public diplomacy

In this study, I operationalize formal public diplomacy as media-present events that show dialogue between Pakistani and U.S. representatives. This includes, but is not limited to, a discussion between respective leaders, diplomats, or other representatives with the intent to make agreements with each other. This is the interpersonal dimension of diplomacy described by Gilboa (2001). Formal public diplomacy can be executed through talks between world leaders about the relationship between their respective countries, and represents “government to government” communication, as Wang (2006) mentions.

Another criterion for the operational definition of formal public diplomacy is met when an article reports on the representation of one of the above events via radio,

30 television, YouTube, or other public media platforms (Wang, 2006). This category also includes Berns’s and Eltham’s (2009) operational definition of statecraft in public diplomacy whereby the state gives economic, political, or military aid as a form of influence. In this case, Berns and Eltham’s (2009) conceptualization of statecraft may describe the United States’ influence in Pakistan. Wang (2006) also examines this practice, discussing in particular the example of lobbying governments as a way for an outside nation to push an agenda.

Informal public diplomacy

The first operational definition of informal public diplomacy is an opinion piece, which discusses the writer’s opinion about public diplomatic ties between the United

States and Pakistan. Although this is secondhand information, it is representative of the use of media, an aspect of Wang’s (2006) definition of public diplomacy (i.e., through the use of opinion pieces or newspaper articles). The second operational definition of informal public diplomacy, letters to the editor, is similar to the previous indicator, in that it is a representation of media in public diplomacy as discussed by Wang (2006). This classification would represent the letters to the editor in newspaper articles that discuss the relationship between Pakistan and the United States.

The third operational definition of informal public diplomacy consists of newspaper articles about written or live interviews with political leaders and officials.

This type of diplomacy would be measured by interviews that reveal diplomatic perspectives from these former or current politicians about the U.S.-Pakistan relationship.

The basis for this operational definition is that these public figures have in some way represented or are representing the current political structure. I would define these kinds

31 of interviews as ‘off-the-record’ communications, in which officials are more free to state how they feel about the situation between Pakistan and the United States.

The fourth operational definition, communications from religious leaders discussing Pakistan’s state of affairs, includes texts in which Pakistani religious leaders give their opinion on the exchanges of political dialogue between Pakistan and the United

States. These religious leaders may show what their respective publics think about the diplomatic situation between Pakistan and the United States. The final operational definition of informal public diplomacy is the documentation of protests. This indicator includes an article which discusses public protest by either American or Pakistani publics of the diplomatic ties between the U.S. and Pakistan.

DATA SOURCES

I conducted a content analysis of print media because this type of analysis allows for a focus on characteristics of language with attention to the content or contextual meaning of the text (Shannon & Hseih 2005). I collected data from two online newspapers, that I predicted would include articles on my key concepts. The newspapers

I selected are the Dawn, a Pakistan-based newspaper, and the New York Times, a U.S.- based newspaper. I chose the Dawn because it is one of the more well-known newspapers in Pakistan and is followed closely by the international community (Kheeshadeh 2012). I selected the New York Times because it is considered to be one of the most influential newspapers in the United States (Xu 2013).

I obtained my data from two different search engines, the Google search engine and the New York Times search engine. The Dawn, at the time of this writing (2016), has its own search engine that is a less functional version of the Google search engine. As the

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Dawn search engine does not enable its own personalized search results (i.e., it does not have any options to restrict or filter results by date, ordered results, limit word choice, etc.) an important feature in the process of gathering data for online content analysis, it was more effective for my research purposes to use the main Google search engine.

The New York Times search engine enabled me to limit the results by article type.

For example, I could specify a type of article such as “world articles,” and submit my query as well as sort results chronologically, similarly to how the Google search engine does. Despite yielding chronological results, these search engines may produce flaws or inconsistencies in the results from search queries. This is a common problem because search engines and internet sites update their websites/queries with the intent of improving search engine optimization. Search engines and sites often do this by updating their indices, which evolve with the internet and do not necessarily replicate historical data chronologically, leading to variability in results (Wouters, Helsten & Leydesdorff

2004). Despite the potential problems that may arise with internet search queries, there is currently no other way to conduct an efficient content analysis of online news articles. As technology becomes increasingly more paperless and newspaper organizations become less likely to physically print articles, there may be no other way to do a content analysis in the modern era. While the NYT is still available in print, the Dawn is only accessible online.

To ensure that my data collection from my research design is systematic and appropriate, there are two criteria for inclusion of articles in this analysis. First, only articles about Pakistan are included. Second, these articles must also contain at least one of the criteria under the operational definitions of democracy, sovereignty, or public

33 diplomacy in relation to the Pakistani state.

PROCEDURE

This thesis analyzes content produced from January 1, 2005 to December 31,

2014, a total of 10 years or 3,652 days. I chose this time period because it coincides with the initial usage of drone strikes by the Bush administration (Boyle 2013). I used a simple random sampling method to identify dates for generating articles in both periodicals, using a list of all the dates between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2014. I used a table of random numbers to determine which dates I would select.

In order to generate the table of random numbers, I used the online random number generator, Stat-treks (2016). These numbers, ranging from 1 to 3,652, were arranged chronologically, and each corresponded to a date in the time period of the study, starting from January 1, 2005. For example, if 0030 was the randomly generated number, then the date that was generated would be January 30, 2005.

I chose to sample 90 dates, or 2.5% of the dates during this time period. I read articles published on the same dates in the two periodicals, the Dawn and the New York

Times. My intention was to collect about 1,800 articles about Pakistan that addressed democracy, sovereignty, and public diplomacy. I read a maximum of 10 articles from each periodical for each randomly generated date. Utilizing advanced search features, I limited each search engine to generating at least 10 articles published on the randomly selected date. If there were more than 10 articles published on a given date, I listed the number of articles, and then used the table of random numbers to determine which 10 articles I read.

Articles were analyzed for appropriateness for this study. Some articles were

34 omitted for several reasons. One possible reason for exclusion was labeled “no reference,” which meant no reference to the operational definitions. Some examples of this would be if the article mentioned drone usage in a country other than Pakistan, was related to sports, or focused on any other topic irrelevant to my definitions. The second reason for exclusion was labeled as “no translation,” meaning that the newspaper is not avalable in English. Other indicators included, “dead on arrival (DOA)”, meaning the link is broken and the designated urls do not provide further information. The last indicator was labeled as “repeat,” which signaled that an article that had already been counted was found again in that random population, and will be excluded.

I wrote notes about the articles and compiled the data on an Excel spreadsheet.

Articles used for this thesis will be copied into a separate spreadsheet with the URL, date of publication, and the acronym representing the operational definition criteria. I categorized the operational criteria as “stable democracy,” “weak democracy,” “weak sovereignty,” “stable sovereignty,” “formal public diplomacy,” and “informal public diplomacy.”

PILOT STUDY

The pilot studies were intended to test and refine the operational definitions, to generate a proper Excel spreadsheet and to determine the appropriate source material. For the pilot study, I examined 15 articles from the following periodicals: the British

Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), the Los Angeles Times, and the Dawn. I added synonyms to the operational definitions when I found articles that referred to democracy, sovereignty, and public diplomacy with different terms than I originally identified.

For example, I am removing the terms “republic” and “commonwealth” from my

35 original operational definition of democracy. The reason for this is that when democracies were mentioned, the most important factor was whether a state or territory was considered a ‘democracy,’ regardless of the state’s official name or form. I also removed indicators of weak democracy such as “small middle class,” “a large underclass,” and “limited education.” I removed these terms due to their absence in the articles, and their conceptual ambiguity. I also added the indicator, elected officials which

I found more frequently in the pilot study, in order to show how leaders were selected.

The operational definitions I removed in the pilot study regarding the concept of sovereignty were “supremacy,” “ascendancy,” “dominion,” and “sway.” The reason was that these indicators were not mentioned in any of the articles during the pilot study, nor were any of their respective synonyms. I added the operational definitions of the term

“territorial integrity” (sovereignty), and “loss of territorial integrity” (weak sovereignty) based on their presence in a pilot study article that summarized control over a territory.

I did not change any operational definitions of formal and informal public diplomacy as a result of the pilot study. In the earlier pilot study, I broadened their indicators to determine if there was a party who was in charge of, or “calling the shots” in, the diplomatic talks. This proved to be unsuccessful, because there was no indication of who seemed to be leading, or the stronger party, in these diplomatic discussions.

I suspected that only those nations and individuals who were more directly involved with Pakistan would have newspaper articles on Pakistan and my operational definitions. I ran pilot studies comparing the BBC to the Los Angeles Times. The British

Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) periodical mentioned my original operational definitions 33% of the time, and the Los Angeles Times mentioned these 60% of the time.

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This is part of the reason that I chose the New York Times as the American periodical for this analysis.

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CHAPTER 4

RESULTS

I read 1,516 articles from two publications: a Pakistani daily newspaper the Dawn and the New York Times (NYT). The publication dates of the articles ranged from January

1, 2005 to December 31, 2014. Also, 619 articles (40.83%) came from the Dawn, and

897 (59.17%) came from the NYT.

Out of all the source material, a total of 116 (7.56%) articles were relevant to the three research questions. From that population, 89 (76.72%) articles came from the

Dawn, and 27 (23.28%) came from the New York Times. The following sections will describe the discussion of democracy, sovereignty, and public diplomacy in these periodicals.

Table 1. Relevant Articles Found in the Dawn and NYT

Dawn NYT Total

Percentage Articles Percentage Articles Percentage Articles

Stable Democracy 9.80% 10 0% 0 7.09% 10

Weak Democracy 4.90% 5 7.69% 3 5.67% 8

Stable Sovereignty 18.62% 19 5.12% 2 14.89% 21

Weak Sovereignty 55.68% 57 51.28% 20 54.61% 77

Public Diplomacy Formal 9.80% 10 33.30% 13 16.31% 23

Public Diplomacy 0.98% 1 2.56% 1 1.41% 2 Informal

Total number of articles 100.00% 102 100.00% 39 100.00% 141

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DEMOCRACY

The first hypothesis, that Pakistan would be portrayed as a weak democracy has been supported. Democracy does not portray strong results, as only 18 (12.76%) out the

141 relevant articles discuss democracy. Table 1 shows that ten articles (7.09%) discuss stable democracy, and eight articles (5.67%) discuss weak democracy. All of the articles that discussed elements of a stable democracy in Pakistan came from the Dawn. A total of 15 (14.70%) articles that mentioned democracy came from the Dawn and only three

(7.69%) came from the New York Times. For weak democracy, five articles (4.90%) came from the Dawn, and three (7.69%) came from the New York Times.

Examples of articles that describe democracy in Pakistan are included and discussed below. Two examples come from the Dawn, and discuss Pakistan as a stable democracy. The other example comes from the New York Times and depicts Pakistan as a weak democracy.

Stable Democracy

The Dawn. One article on democracy published on February 13, 2009, discusses the state of Pakistan, and the body of elected officials that represent it. This article also mentions one key criteria of stable democracy, that the Federally Administered Tribal

Areas (FATA) regions are represented by an elected delegation.

In all, 158 candidates from across the country are in the run for the upcoming elections to 50 Senate seats. This was announced by Secretary Election Commission Kanwar Dilshad while speaking at a press conference minutes after deadline for filing of nomination papers for the expired, culminating the first phase of the forthcoming polls. He said 98 nomination papers have been filed for general seats, 35 for women seats, 25 for ulema and technocrat seats. Giving the break up, he said three nomination papers for general seats had been filed in Islamabad, 17 in Punjab, 7 in Sindh, 11 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (NWFP) 26 in Baluchistan and 34 in 34 in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) (Dawn 2009:1).

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The next example published by the Dawn on July 08, 2009 discusses the education system in Pakistan. Although Pakistan has a public education system that is indeed free of cost, meeting one of the criteria for a stable democracy, it seems that the system is plagued with problems. Despite the finding that the country’s public education system is indeed free of cost, the Dawn (2009) does reveal a high dropout rate of elementary school aged children, and a wide disparity in opportunities between those in public schools and private schools.

From the information collected mainly from the media and the reports of UN agencies, the HRCP report tells us that Pakistan spends only 2.3 per cent of its GDP on education, and 6.5 million children five to nine years of age are out of school, with the dropout rate being a high 50 per cent… The public-sector school education is free but of deplorable quality. Private schools are allowed to charge fees that touch the skies and thus exclude the majority from their fold. And it is the state which conspires in perpetuating this barrier. To further ensure that educational excellence does not reach the poor, our curricula, textbooks, exams and pedagogy are so tailored that a student from a public-sector school can never hope to benefit (Dawn 2009:1).

Weak Democracy

The New York Times. According to an article dated February 17, 2008, Pakistan had a military ruler. In the article, Perlez (2008) reported of upcoming elections, yet it seemed that the democratic election process in Pakistan still faced many challenges.

According to the article, established ruling parties were vying to push their agenda as they have for generations.

The nationwide parliamentary elections are intended to usher in an era of democracy in Pakistan after months of political turmoil and nearly a decade of military rule under President Pervez Musharraf. But here in Punjab Province, the biggest prize, the bare-knuckle election fight has included charges of armed intimidation by the police and private militias, as well as bribes through government favors. The threat of violence and the suspicion of rigging hang thick in the air. There has even been bickering over who should operate the polling stations. A street-level view of the campaign, in fact, reveals the many stubborn shortcomings of Pakistan’s politics, where the parties are organized less around policies

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than people, often from feudal families who have held sway for generations (Perlez. 2008:1).

SOVEREIGNTY

The second hypothesis, that the newspaper publications would portray Pakistan as having weak sovereignty, has been supported. The category of weak sovereignty showed strong results, with 77 (54.61%) out of the 141 relevant articles discussing weak sovereignty. In general, 98 (69.50%) out of the 141 significant articles referred to aspects of the operational definition of sovereignty, including self-authority and control, territorial integrity, jurisdiction, drone use by the U.S. in Pakistan, and lack of territorial integrity. However, only 21 (14.69%) articles discussed the stability of Pakistani sovereignty. 19 (18.62%) articles in the Dawn, and two (5.12%) articles in the NYT, describe the operation of stable sovereignty in Pakistan. I provide examples of two articles from the Dawn that discuss stable sovereignty in Pakistan, five articles from the

Dawn that discuss weak sovereignty, and three articles from the New York Times that discuss weak sovereignty.

Stable Sovereignty

On July 27, 2009, an article in the Dawn described the arrest of terrorists following local bombings. The arrest is a strong indicator of stable sovereignty as the

Pakistani police found weapons and explosives intended to be utilized in the future attack of several government facilities. Sovereignty of the state is maintained because the state is able to enforce rule of law, capture the suspected terrorists, and process them through a justice system.

Security agencies arrested on Sunday three terrorists believed to be of the Qari Saifullah group for their alleged involvement in last year's blast in Islamabad's Marriott Hotel. According to sources, they were arrested during a raid by a joint team of capital police and security agencies on a house located in Barakahu, in Islamabad's suburbs. A large

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quantity of explosives, hand-grenades, pistols and bullets were found in their hideout. It is said that terrorists were trying to attack court premises, offices of senior police, and administration officers and other important installations in Islamabad (Dawn 2009:1).

The Dawn article published on Oct 15, 2010, discusses how the Pakistani police found a kidnapped doctor through the use of their information network and police raids.

The victim was a physician who lived in Shinar, a suburb of Pakistan. The Pakistani police recovered him, as well as another captive. It seemed that the Pakistani government was able to resort to its police force to fulfill its duty of re-obtaining a captured citizen.

Police also claimed to have recovered another kidnapped person identified as Wassem, a Ph.D. student, the same day from another locality in Peshawar. Police said that a kidnapper identified as Ajab Khan, an Afghanistan national, was killed, and another arrested during the encounter… Giving details of the encounter in a press conference at Lady Reading Hospital, Capital City Police Officer Liaquat Ali Khan said that police had conducted raids in Swabi and Mardan districts and arrested one person, who helped them lead towards the kidnappers. During the raids, he said, two police vans had also been damaged. He said that police had contacted members of three gangs of kidnappers for the doctor's recovery, but he was found in possession of a new group of professional abductors, who had a network in different areas. “As police reached Shinwari Town and tried to reach the room where the physician was kept, a kidnapper opened firing and also hurled a hand grenade, but police escaped, however the kidnapper was killed in retaliation and another was arrested,” he said (Dawn 2010: 1).

Weak Sovereignty

Most of the articles in the Dawn and almost all of the articles in the New York

Times which discuss sovereignty in Pakistan describe it as weak or ineffective.

The Dawn. One article published in the Dawn on August 24, 2007 depicts Lyari as a city controlled by gangs. The gang violence that exists in Lyari is the result of a long-standing battle for control of the city. The article states that as a consequence of the police’s inability to maintain the rule of law, civilians are fleeing the city, or taking matters in their own hands.

Meanwhile, a number of Citizens are fleeing the area, citing extortion, harassment and threats to their personal and financial security. Even in this situation, it is of little wonder

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that many of the area’s residents who have the means to do so are choosing to leave the area, leaving their locked properties behind at the risk of their being occupied by gangsters. People want to sell their properties and move out... The gangs that are currently imposing a reign of terror in Lyari are heavily armed and residents say that they are better equipped than the local police force. Having taken control of different localities and established their fiefdoms, these gangs safeguard their territorial limits by trading heavy gunfire sometimes stretching over days (Hassan 2007:1).

A second article, published on April 14, 2009, depicts the violence of gang control in Pakistan spilling over into Afghanistan. In 2009, both sides were fighting the insurgency, and the Taliban was crossing Pakistan’s and Afghanistan’s borders. Afghans feared that the success of the Taliban in Pakistan would only give hope to the rising insurgency; the Afghan press further discussed the consequences of such a deal between the Pakistani government and the Taliban.

“Since any deal with terrorist groups can have effects on the security of our own country and people, we ask the country of Pakistan to take into consideration the issue of security and its side-effects on relations between the two countries” Afghan presidential spokesman Humayun Hamidzada told a news briefing. The strict Taliban, with roots in ethnic Pashtun tribes that straddle the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, have been waging insurgencies in both countries…. Meanwhile, Taliban influence has been spreading through the northwest of Pakistan, reviving concerns about the stability of the nuclear-armed state (Dawn 2009:1).

Drone attacks conducted by the U.S. took place in the Khyber tribal region on

December 17, 2010, according to an article by the Dawn. The article questioned the

Pakistani state’s sovereignty and went into detail about problems caused by drone strikes, including whether they have the potential to cause collateral damage. The drone attacks are often plagued by mystery: “U.S. officials do not acknowledge firing the missiles, much less comment on who they are targeting. It is impossible to independently report on the aftermath of the attacks because outsiders are not allowed to visit the tribal regions”

(AP 2010:1).

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Another article in the Dawn dated Jun 10, 2013 suggests that the United States had violated Pakistan’s territorial integrity. The consequences of using these drone strikes seem to have been brought to the attention of the Punjab Assembly, which approves legislation in the Pakistani government. An assembly secretariat, Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)

Mian Aslam Iqbal, stated publically that the “U.S. drone attacks were a violation of

Pakistan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity” (Dawn 2013:1). Furthermore, in the resolution Iqbal proposed, he added that “innocent civilians were dying in these attacks, and demanded that the federal government abolish all agreements with the United States pertaining to drone attacks.” (Dawn 2013:1). This documented proposal suggests that the drone strikes were executed with the consent of the Pakistani government.

Another article published in the Dawn on August 9, 2013, six years after the 2007 article highlighting the lack of sovereignty, discusses more of the challenges to sovereignty in the Pakistani city of Lyari. These two examples show the ongoing disorder in the region and weak rule of law that persists.

Every household from there onwards has a story to tell. Those who recently came back after fleeing to a family member’s or to Badin found their belongings stolen. While some people lost their moveable property, others lost their entire homes to the gangsters. Armored personnel carrier manned by two police officers is parked there ostensibly to create a sense of security in the area for residents, and just a few steps beyond it is a picket set up by what people refer to as the gangsters. “The picket that you see over there is where these people sit and harass passersby. Nobody is spared. They harass men, women and even children,” he said angrily. About the policemen posted on Mandhra Street, Mr Kutchhi said: “They (policemen) are on their (gangsters’) payroll.” Hashim Hingoro, a tall man in his late 30s, said their home had been stripped of all furniture. “There is no chance of getting it back. Who do we complain to?” (Baloch 2013:1)

Three additional articles from the New York Times about the weakened state of sovereignty in Pakistan are discussed. While the Dawn provided most of the articles on

44 sovereignty in Pakistan, the New York Times provides a different lens through which to view the subject.

An article published on September 10, 2008 in the New York Times depicts

Pakistan as unable to control its territory during a U.S. raid. Provoked by attacks from

Afghanistan on its forces, the United States launched a counter attack, and then realized that the Pakistani military was unwilling to deal with the militants in its tribal regions or

FATA regions.

In another jibe at the Americans, General Kayani said public support was necessary in finding a solution. He called the commando action “reckless.” The no-nonsense tone by General Kayani brought into the open the increasing mistrust between Americans and the Pakistanis over how to handle the Taliban and Qaeda forces in Pakistan’s tribal areas… On Wednesday, Mr. Aziz said the American attacks in the tribal belt were counterproductive because they could end up pushing out most of the civilians and leaving the area a free zone for the Taliban and Al Qaeda (Perlez 2008:1).

The Pakistani government fears a situation that may involve losing further control of their territory. The situation they fear is that after U.S. troops clear the area of insurgents, they will leave, which will invite insurgents or other groups (e.g. Taliban, Al-Qaeda) to come back and reclaim the area once more, perhaps on a greater scale.

A New York Times article published on July 10, 2010 discusses an instance in which the Pakistani military failed to reclaim national territory. The article argues that

Pakistan was unable to regain a stronghold over the region of Mohmand. Although the

Pakistani military attempted an attack in the region, it seemed to have no effect on the militants. As a result, the Taliban continued to maintain control over that territory.

The attack was aimed directly at the civilian authorities who are supposed to be helping people resist the Taliban. The Pakistani Army has been involved in a battle against the militants in Mohmand for nearly two years but has been unable to defeat them…. The strike demonstrated the resilience of the Taliban in the tribal region, even in an area like Mohmand that is adjacent to the bustling city of Peshawar. The strategic location of Mohmand, a mountainous, heavily forested area with easy escape routes to Afghanistan, makes it relatively easy for the Taliban to organize men and weapons (Khan and Perlez 2010:1).

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An October 22, 2010 article by the New York Times stated that the United States showed that it was willing to go to great lengths to impose its military policy on Pakistan.

This included the willingness to cross Pakistani borders with or without the Pakistani government’s permission.

The United States has already displayed a willingness to operate unilaterally in Pakistan, as with the raid that killed Osama bin Laden and the attacks by drones against Haqqani network leaders. Those attacks have deeply angered officials and the public in Pakistan. The delegation, officials said, bluntly warned Pakistan that it faced a decisive choice between fighting alongside the United States — or watching as American forces act alone against the extremist Haqqani network, even inside Pakistan, if necessary. On Friday, Mrs. Clinton said that “for too long the group had been able to operate freely” (Myers 2011:1).

PUBLIC DIPLOMACY

The hypothesis that predicted the presence of weak public diplomacy between the

United States and Pakistan was supported. 25 (17.73%) out of the relevant 141 articles discuss the state of public diplomatic affairs between Pakistan and the United States; of these, 11 (10.78%) come from the Dawn, and 14 (33.33%) come from the New York

Times. Of all articles discussing public diplomacy, 23 (16.31%) articles discuss formal public diplomacy, 10 (9.80%) of which come from the Dawn, and 13 (33.33%) of which come from the New York Times. Informal public diplomacy has only two articles

(1.41%). one opinion piece (.98%) from the Dawn, and one article briefly highlighting a protest on U.S.-Pakistan relations (2.56%) from the New York Times. The Dawn opinion piece referenced a second source, which comments on the drone strikes in Pakistan.

Out of the articles studied, several included examples of the public diplomatic relationship between the United States and Pakistan. I have selected the two strongest examples that highlight the U.S.-Pakistan public diplomatic relationship. Of the two strongest examples, one article comes from the New York Times and discusses formal

46 public diplomacy, and one article comes from the Dawn and discusses informal public diplomacy.

Formal Public Diplomacy

New York Times: The United State and Pakistan seem to be at odds with each other, after the revelation that Osama Bin Laden was residing next door to a top military academy in Pakistan. When it was discovered that this was the case, United States officials questioned the effectiveness of the Pakistani state and their cooperation in pursuing using Bin Laden. An article by the NYT on May 5, 2011 described the diplomatic relationship between the United States and Pakistan, as well as with China:

Both the aid and the effectiveness of Pakistan’s cooperation have been called into question by the discovery that Bin Laden had lived for years in a large compound adjacent to a top military academy in the city of Abbottabad, a two-hour drive from the capital, Islamabad. While the Obama administration would still like Pakistan’s cooperation to wind down the war in Afghanistan and to root out terrorist groups, some American lawmakers are now calling for aid to Pakistan to be cut or suspended. For their part, Pakistani officials were incensed that the Obama administration gave them no notice of the raid until helicopters bearing a Navy Seal team had already left the country. Pakistani military officials have consistently complained that American aid, which they would nonetheless like to keep flowing, falls short on many essential military items that the Americans have been reluctant to offer. The United States provides Pakistan with F-16 fighter jets to help the country match the air power of its archrival India, but Pakistani military officials have complained that their F-16 fleet is aging… The United States may be Pakistan’s largest benefactor, but China is Pakistan’s largest trading partner, and for years the Chinese have heavily invested in building a deep-water port in the Pakistani city of Gwadar. China is often referred to as Pakistan’s “all-weather friend,” contrast to the common depiction of its up-and-down relationship with the United States, which is deeply unpopular here (Perlez 2011:1).

Informal Public Diplomacy

An article published on May 20, 2011 by the Dawn claims that the Pakistani government was allegedly involved in the process of using drones. The article states that the Army Chief General Ashfaq requested the use of the predator drone in the WikiLeaks

47 diplomatic cables. The article also presents evidence that the use of drone strikes provided a service to the Pakistani state. One of the more positive outcomes, as stated in one of the cables, is the prevention of losses of Pakistani soldiers.

In a meeting on January 22, 2008 with US CENTCOM Commander Admiral William J. Fallon, Army Chief General Ashfaq Kayani requested the Americans to provide “continuous Predator coverage of the conflict area” in South Waziristan where the army was conducting operations against militants. The request is detailed in a ‘Secret’ cable sent by then US Ambassador Anne Patterson on February 11, 2008. Pakistan’s military has consistently denied any involvement in the covert programme run mainly by the CIA…. Another previously unpublished cable dated May 26, 2009 details President Zardari’s meeting on May 25 with an American delegation led by Senator Patrick Leahy.Referring to a recent drone strike in the tribal area that killed 60 militants, wrote Ambassador Patterson in her report, “Zardari reported that his military aide believed a Pakistani operation to take out this site would have resulted in the deaths of over 60 Pakistani soldiers” (Sajjad 2011:1).

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CHAPTER 5

DISCUSSION

My contextual analysis of the Dawn and the New York Times reveals three salient patterns in the Pakistani state: weak democracy, weak sovereignty, and low levels of public diplomacy. I also examine the theories discussed in chapter 2 to see which theory is a better fit for the description of Pakistan’s democracy, sovereignty, and public diplomacy. This chapter will also discuss the limitations of this study, recommendations for future research, and present my conclusion.

DEMOCRACY

First, neither the Dawn nor the New York Times reveals a strong presence of democracy in Pakistan. Eighteen out of the 141 (12.76%) relevant articles discuss democracy or its indicators. The condition of democracy in Pakistan presents a peculiar situation due to the transition in type of governance from totalitarian to democratic. The current status of democracy in Pakistan is uncertain.

Lipset’s (1959) modernization theory attempts to explain operations of democracy through a strong economy and social evolution (Hinnebush 2006). The source material presented few clear indicators of a strong economy, social evolution toward the representation of the people, or widespread education. Although some of the randomly selected articles from the New York Times provide some evidence of democracy in

Pakistan, most do not show evidence of a stable democracy. Newspaper articles on

49 democracy selected from the Dawn do suggest the presence of stable democracy in

Pakistan. This is unusual and there could be several reasons for this finding. It is possible that the editors of the New York Times believe that Pakistan’s democracy is in a state of flux, that there is no strong evidence of a stable democracy in Pakistan, or that if democracy is present in Pakistan, it is not as relevant of a story for the editors of the New

York Times or the United States. Moreover, it may be that they both (the United States and the New York Times) have little interest in presenting the idea of a democracy in

Pakistan. The United States has had relations with totalitarian dictatorships, communist governments, and different types of governments in the past. It also may be the case that the Dawn may be over-representing a stable democracy in Pakistan.

From the 141 randomly selected group of articles, a few from each publication implied weak democracy in Pakistan (i.e., five in the Dawn three in the New York Times).

An article published by the New York Times on February 17, 2008, by Perlez (2008) states that Pakistan is ruled by families who have held control for generations, and that the country has had a military ruler prior to 2008. Although Pakistan has a strong GDP, one indicator of a strong democracy, most of the nation’s economy goes unreported, according to the CIA (2015). In addition, the country’s currency has undergone a significant drop in value since 2007. Moreover, Pakistan’s overall tax revenue as a percentage of GDP does not correlate with a direct investment in social programs or infrastructure (Ahmad 2016). Finally, elections have taken place since 2008, marking the probability that democracy is present, if tenuous.

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SOVEREIGNTY

A second major finding concerns the state of sovereignty as described in the

Dawn and the New York Times. Based on this empirical analysis, sovereignty in Pakistan appears weak in this sample. The articles on sovereignty included 21 related to the presence of sovereignty and 77 related to weak sovereignty. This is a 1:4 ratio; for every article showing the presence of sovereignty in Pakistan, there are four articles that show a weakened state of sovereignty. Pakistan has a tumultuous past with military coups, and the presence of foreign powers which have provided financial and military aid along with a political agenda. Based on the source material, the Pakistani government has failed to maintain some basic tenets of sovereignty. Primarily, the decline of legitimate authority in Pakistan allowed other states to deny Pakistan’s sovereignty. Another “failure” was

Pakistan’s inability to govern its own people, and prevent foreign interference. Other major problems include Pakistan’s difficulty maintaining authority and territorial integrity. Finally, Pakistan did not have the ability to coerce its own population or uphold its own laws (Thomson 1995).

Both publications present evidence that Pakistan was ineffective in upholding its ability to coerce its own population, one important tenet of sovereignty. The state lacks the ability to coerce its residents through the use of laws in order to maintain order and control. The August 25, 2007 Dawn article by Hasson states that some people in Lyrai resorted to violence for the purpose of maintaining control over their territory, as the government failed to control the gang violence and protect the city’s population. Baloch’s

August 9, 2013 Dawn article shows that Lyrai fell into more disarray six years later.

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The source materials report that Pakistani people cannot turn to the police because law enforcement officers “are on the gangsters’ payrolls.” Moreover, thefts have persisted in Lyrai because the police cannot maintain order in the city. The other indicator of weak sovereignty, loss of territorial integrity, was also present in Pakistan.

An April 14, 2009 Dawn article showed that the Pakistani government has made deals with the Taliban, a militant group in the region that is slowly spreading its influence in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).

According to these two periodicals, Pakistan appears unable to govern its own people and hold off outside interference. This is implied by Perlez’s September 10, 2008

New York Times article. The United States sent troops to Pakistan when the Pakistani government was unable to act against militants within its jurisdiction. An article published on June 10, 2013 in the Dawn suggests that drone strikes were sanctioned by the Pakistani government through agreements regarding drone use with the United States.

PUBLIC DIPLOMACY

A third key point highlights the low number of articles (25 out of 114 articles, or

17.73%) that discuss public diplomacy between Pakistan and the United States. This relatively low rate of reporting on this topic seems significant because of the high level of

U.S. involvement with the Pakistani government during the period studied. Given the data sources, a higher number of references to formal diplomacy would be expected.

There are hints of a change in the relationship between Pakistan and the United States.

Sources report that during the Cold War period starting in the 1950s, the United States and Pakistan had a more cooperative relationship than during the past two decades. Gilani

(2006) states that during the earlier period of the 1950s, the Pakistani government also

52 appeared to be willing to work with the United States’ own interests, sometimes at the expense of its own. This is reflected in Perlez’s (2011) description in the New York Times of the relationship between the two states as “up-and-down.”

According to the May 5th 2011 New York Times article, the United States was providing Pakistan aid and weapons during this time, suggesting the United States’ influence over Pakistan. Moreover, the WikiLeaks U.S. diplomatic cables (2011) are a source of information about informal public diplomacy. The WikiLeaks data that I obtained reveals evidence of actual diplomacy, and exposes one interesting factor: the drone strikes described by Sajjad in the May 20, 2011 Dawn article were reported as being carried out with the consent of the Pakistani government. This could explain why the Pakistani government has at times protested the United States’ use of drones; perhaps in doing so, Pakistan maintains the guise of sovereignty.

THEORETICAL RELEVANCE

Modernization theory as developed by Lipset (1959) does not appear to fit the data from this study. Based on its indicators of strong GDP and democratic representation, Pakistan would be considered a democracy. Under the rule of a military leader until 2008, Pakistan had maintained some social aspects of a westernized democracy, including freedom of speech and freedom of press (Gilani 2006). The theory does not seem to indicate whether Pakistan is headed towards another coup or will be able to maintain its democracy. The case of Pakistani democracy does not seem to comfortably fit into Lipset’s (1959) modernization theory. I suspect this is most likely because tribal regions, such as FATA in Pakistan, are not commonly found in the context of western democracies such as those in Europe and North America.

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Realist theory, the other theoretical perspective discussed in this research, also poses some shortcomings. The recurrent power transfers in Pakistan through democracy or an authoritarian state may suggest to a casual observer that this may not be the first time

Pakistan has shown weak sovereignty. Realist theory may not explain why there is weak sovereignty in Pakistan. If realist theory were able to depict weak sovereignty in

Pakistan, there would be more references in the newspaper articles discussing the relationship between Pakistan and the United States. There may also be a case for weak sovereignty in evidence that the United States is dominating the diplomatic conversation, dictating policy, or violating national boundaries. Moreover, a majority of the articles would show a greater number of references to drone strikes and policy decisions being dictated by the United States. Instead, both publications discuss the weak sovereignty of the Pakistani nation itself.

Realist theory appears to be the stronger theory for explaining the social-political phenomena in the state of Pakistan, in relation to modernization. Realist theory does at the very least, explain the relationship dynamic between Pakistan and the United States.

It argues that if the stronger state has a greater sovereignty, it will impose its agenda, dictate its will upon the weaker state, maintain control over the weaker country’s boundaries, and control relations. This dominion is only as viable and as strong as that nation’s power will allow it to be (Rosenberg 1990). I believe that Rosenberg (1990) would make the argument that as the United States has stronger sovereignty, Pakistan would comply with its will. This is indicated by the Pakistani reliance on the American government to provide drone strikes, aid, and weapons.

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However, since both modernization and realist theories originate from western schools of thought, they may not contribute to a satisfactory explanation of democracy, sovereignty, and public diplomacy in Pakistan. While modernization theory provides an account of democracy-building in more westernized societies, realist theory serves as a platform to explain power dynamics between states in the international world. It does not address Pakistan’s democracy, sovereignty, and public diplomacy because realism does not place an emphasis on individual nations. Other researchers who wish to further investigate these social-political phenomena in Pakistan may wish to employ different theories.

Limitations

Some of the limits of this content analysis derive from the method of data collection through media accounts of events transpiring in the Pakistani state. The Dawn and the New York Times may have some degree of institutional bias that is not clearly stated by the editors, such as the possible level of coercion the United States and Pakistan may have exercised in framing the newspaper articles. Another limitation was that the articles that were analyzed had to be in English, and I was unable to use any Pakistani newspapers written in the national language, Urdu.

Also, I focused on a 10-year period that I predicted would be rich in references to democracy, sovereignty, and public diplomacy, due to prior knowledge of U.S.-Pakistani events that transpired during this time. I chose a sample of 90 days (2% of 3652 days) out of the 10-year period from January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2014. For each of the randomly selected dates, I read up to ten articles in both the Dawn and the New York

Times. A larger sample may have yielded more articles on the three topics of interest. In

55 addition, the whole issue of the publication was not read for all of the dates sampled; limiting the number of articles to no more than 10 per individual date may have reduced the likelihood of finding more articles on democracy, sovereignty, and public diplomacy.

Another noteworthy limitation of this thesis was the exclusion of the term “militant” from the operational definitions of the topics studied. Some of the articles from both periodicals utilized the word “militant” relatively frequently to describe bombings, explosions, and the insurgent movements within the state of Pakistan. This term was often used to neutrally describe actors involved in these types of events. The term, and the presence of “militants” in a state were excluded from the operational definition of

“terrorist attacks,” due to the charged connotation of the term, and respect for the neutrality of the periodicals.

Recommendations for Future Research

Further investigation of the role of the economy in democracy in Pakistan is crucial. Perhaps an analysis of the dynamics in the relationship between Pakistan’s economy and the IMF would be informative. Also, the field of study would benefit from a better definition of the economy, as many nations’ economies are complex. As was briefly discussed in this study, Pakistan appears to have an “off-the-record” or underground economy which raises questions about the larger economy, and which I suspect may be the norm for other emerging nations in the Middle East.

There are also issues of interpersonal sociology, particularly regarding gender inequality. In regards to equality, I observed a trend of mistreatment of women in

Pakistan. The state of Pakistan seems likely to be a patriarchal society, and further analysis of the gender bias that exists in the region would inform a more comprehensive

56 study of the region’s social and political development. The mistreatment of Pakistani women was apparent in the source materials, and patriarchal roles are still predominant in the state despite the presence of democracy.

Further investigation of the FATA regions is also essential. The importance of the tribal areas and their impact on Pakistan’s sovereignty and democracy were marginally referenced in this thesis; however, the interesting dynamic these regions pose to

Pakistan’s democracy offers rich material for further study.

Finally, I recommend examination of the difference between militancy and terrorism in Pakistan. An in-depth explanation of insurgent behaviors in Pakistan, and whether they are defined as cases of militancy or terrorism, is crucial to a deeper understanding of the challenges to democracy in the country. Also, I would like to see further study of how these rogue groups continue to maintain their existence in Pakistan, and why people join them, as well as the reasoning behind usage of the term “militants” by both the Dawn and the New York Times.

It may be useful to employ different methods of collecting data, such as an ethnographic analysis or interviews with government officials, as well as with ordinary citizens of Pakistan. A comprehensive study of Pakistan or U.S.-Pakistani relations would be based on multiple research methods.

Conclusion

Newspaper accounts portray Pakistan as a place of great strife, sadness, and disarray. Pakistan has nuclear weapons, and while fear-mongering is not the ideal intention, it is in the United States’ best interest to prevent access to these by radical extremists.

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The drone strikes present a moral quandary, and their legality remains debatable.

The strongest argument that (Boyle 2013) has in favor of the drone strikes is that they would prevent the loss of more soldiers from both sides of the conflict. Evidence supports

Pakistan’s inability to win against the militants in the region, or retaliate against extremists. It is in the United States’ best interests to be involved in Pakistan. I once held the view that drone strikes were ineffective, as well as immoral, tactics, and that their presence only aided and abetted the chaos in the region. Through this research, I have come to understand that the drone strikes are necessary, as they do provide a crucial service to the state of Pakistan, or are represented that way. According to the New York

Times article by Perlez (2011), the fact that the Pakistani state did not know that Osama

Bin Laden was in hiding next door to a military academy should raise concerns about the capabilities of the Pakistani information network in the region.

The description of Pakistan found in the Dawn and the New York Times suggests weak democracy, weak sovereignty, and weak public diplomacy. Both modernization and realist theories fall short in explaining the complex dynamics of Pakistani internal and international relations. More investigation of this complex nation and its social processes is warranted.

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