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Issue Indivisibility As an Explanatory Model for the Arab Spring by Frank

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Issue Indivisibility As an Explanatory Model for the Arab Spring by Frank Issue Indivisibility as an Explanatory Model for the Arab Spring by Frank Douglas Halderman B.Sc. The University of British Columbia, 1987 B.A., The University of British Columbia, 2008 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS in The Faculty of Graduate Studies (Political Science) THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA (Vancouver) April 2013 © Frank Douglas Halderman, 2013 Abstract This thesis examines the Arab Awakening in four countries—Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Syria—and argues that Ron Hassner’s model of issue indivisibility (2009) rather than James Fearon’s model of the commitment problem (2004) provides the best explanation for these uprisings. In each case, the presidency and control of the nation is best described as a super- valuable good, which was considered to be essentially indivisible by state and non-state actors. The presidential incumbents rejected the public’s demands for their resignation and democratic transition and sanctioned military violence to maintain the status quo. The public, maintaining their resolve to oust their president from office, rejected power sharing, fearing the deposed leaders would renege on any negotiated agreement in the future (Fearon, 2004). The second contribution of this thesis, albeit not a new discovery, is that the survival of these dictators was critically dependent on military support. In Tunisia and Egypt, the military’s shift of support to the protestors resulted in the sudden fall of Ben Ali and Mubarak from power. In Libya, sanctioned intervention by a UN military coalition resulted in Gaddafi’s elimination, whereas the Syrian military’s support of the regime ensures the continuation of Assad’s presidency. The third contribution of this thesis is that the Assad regime’s use of recombinant authoritarianism—the adaption of its policies following events in its neighbouring Arab countries—has strengthened its prospects for survival. ii Table of Contents Abstract .............................................................................................................................................. ii Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................ iii Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................................... v 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................1 1.1 A Brief Background of the Arab Spring .......................................................................1 1.2 The Objective and Scope .............................................................................................1 1.3 The Central Insights .....................................................................................................2 1.4 Issue Indivisibility as an Explanation for the Arab Spring ............................................5 1.5 The Other Explanation for the Arab Spring—Commitment Problem ............................6 1.6 The Rejected Models—Symbolic Politics and Predatory Elite .....................................7 1.7 The Argument for Issue Indivisibility ..........................................................................9 2. Tunisia and the Arab Awakening ................................................................................... 12 2.1 Tunisia, the Epicentre of the Arab Spring................................................................... 12 2.2 Ben Ali as an Indivisible Symbol of Corrupt Government .......................................... 13 2.3 The Zero-Sum Nature of the Tunisian Presidency ...................................................... 15 2.4 Ben Ali’s Flight Response ......................................................................................... 18 3. Egypt ................................................................................................................................ 20 3.1 Mubarak’s Loss of Legitimacy................................................................................... 20 3.2 Tahrir Square and the Facebook Effect ...................................................................... 22 3.3 Can’t Take the Money and Run ................................................................................. 25 4. Libya ................................................................................................................................ 27 4.1 Muammar Gaddafi, the Brotherly Guide of the Revolution ........................................ 27 4.2 The Seeds of Discontent ............................................................................................ 29 4.3 Issue Indivisibility ..................................................................................................... 30 4.4 Gaddafi’s Fight Response .......................................................................................... 33 4.5 The UNSC Resolution 1973 ....................................................................................... 34 4.6 The Walking Dead Man Emerges .............................................................................. 35 5. Syria ................................................................................................................................. 37 5.1 Emergency Rule as Status Quo in Syria ..................................................................... 37 5.2 Military Might Trumps All ........................................................................................ 39 5.3 Recombinant Authoritarianism and Political Survival ................................................ 41 5.4 Assad’s Cat-and-Mouse Game of Deceit .................................................................... 43 5.5 The Fight to the Death, not Political Transition .......................................................... 45 6. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 47 iii Bibliography .................................................................................................................................... 49 iv Acknowledgements This thesis is a tribute to the heroes that surround us. Firstly, it honours the hundreds of thousands of Arab citizens who summoned the courage, after living for decades under tyranny, to fight for democracy, justice and dignity, and those who so bravely gave their lives for this most noble of causes: the struggle for freedom. Secondly, this thesis honours my professors in the Department of Political Science at The University of British Columbia for their commitment to knowledge, truth and justice. I would like to extend my gratitude to Dr. Arjun Chowdhury for agreeing to be my Master’s thesis advisor, sharing his brilliance and providing insightful feedback with a good measure of quick wit. It is also a privilege to have Dr. Lisa Sundstrom as my examiner and the critical evaluator of my thesis; thank you, Dr. Sundstrom. I would also like to extend my deep gratitude to the Social Sciences Research Council of Canada for the Master’s scholarship that I received. Finally, this thesis honours the heroes in my immediate world. It honours my parents, family and dearest of friends for their love, wisdom and unyielding support. Most importantly, this thesis honours my dear friend, Rumana Monzur, who has shown so much bravery and courage as she struggles to rebuild her world; Rumana, the warmth of your spirit shines so brightly. v 1. Introduction 1.1 A Brief Background of the Arab Spring The Arab Spring, with its attendant hope for democracy, caught the hearts and imaginations of many throughout the Arab world. Its dramatic start occurred on December 17, 2010, with the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouzizi in Tunisia and the sudden fall of President Ali from power less than a month later, on January 15, 2011. As Tunisian-style mass protests spread across the Middle East, Egypt’s incumbent president, Hosni Mubarak, was the next Arab leader to be forced from office on February 11, 2011. Libya’s tyrannical leader, Muammar Gaddafi, continued his bold and defiant rhetoric until he was pushed from his presidential throne. As his regime collapsed Gaddafi transformed into a walking dead man as he fled to his hometown, where he was captured and abruptly executed on October 20, 2011. The collapse of these presidential regimes coupled with the unrest in other Arab nations in the region caused many to speculate that the Arab world was on the verge of an unstoppable transition to democracy. However, Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s sustained hold on power clearly defies this prediction. Assad maintains his iron grip over the Syrian government through the use of military- driven violence directed against his own people. 1.2 The Objective and Scope The objective of this paper is to offer a detailed explanation for the actions of Arab leaders and the public during the Arab Spring. This thesis will focus on four Arab countries, all ruled by a presidential-style government, that experienced the Arab Awakening. The countries under consideration are Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Syria with the exclusion of Yemen and Algeria.1 1 The scope of this thesis is limited to only four case studies. Although Yemen qualifies as the fifth presidential regime in the Arab region, it is excluded from the analysis. Yemen’s president Ali Abdullah Salih initially used the security forces
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