Changing Skies Over Central North Carolina VOLUME 12, ISSUE 1 SPRING 2015 NOAA’S NATIONAL WEAT HER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC Weather Still Viable Data Source INSIDE THIS ISSUE: cesses occurring well above the surface it is vital to obtain

some kind of observational New Satellite 2 verification at several levels in Capabilities the atmosphere to help ini- tialize and verify numerical Severe Wx 4 models. Safety Tips from NCEM Once launched, a can obtain data related to tem- perature, relative , Winter Review 6 and along with many other parameters that can be derived from the base data. New Electronics 8 First and foremost, this data Technician at gives forecasters a look at the NWS Raleigh vertical profiles of these vari- ables which can then be com- pared with those being shown in high resolution short term models. Forecast- ers are then able to tell how well the models are perform- ing and make adjustments to the forecasts as needed. This is the verification of the mod- el. In addition to grading how well a model forecast is do- ing, observational data from a NC State Students Release Balloon weather balloon can also help the next model forecast to be better than the last one. This On Friday March 6, three It isn’t a big secret that is because of a process called North Carolina State Univer- weather balloons have been a data assimilation which oc- sity Meteorology students big part of operational fore- curs when observational who were selected to partici- casting for several decades weather data from the bal- pate in a semester long in- but why is that, and why loon is placed into the fore- ternship course got a rare haven’t they become obsolete cast models before they run opportunity to observe and by now? The answers have a the forecast. By doing this, an participate in an operational lot to do with the fact that a initial dataset more repre- weather balloon launch at the big chunk of the observation- sentative of the current state Piedmont-Triad International al data we collect as meteor- of the atmosphere is placed into the model and after it Airport in Greensboro. ologists is surface based. With many important pro- runs the equations for the (continued on page 7) P A G E 2 NWS Raleigh Tests New Satellite Capabilities

for example, a forecaster will get an image at 12:45 PM that was actually taken at 12:15 PM and then another image at 1:00 PM that was taken at 12:30 PM. For small scale features like a thunder- storm it is very possible that the event could be over be- fore the satellite image de- picting it even gets to the forecaster.

One of the many great things NWS Operations Proving Ground about the new GOES-R sat- ellite is that it will have the Last summer, the forecast- the spin of the Earth) orbit capability to send the fore- ers at NWS Raleigh had a over the eastern and west- caster an image once every chance to look at a relative- ern halves of the continental minute that was only taken 40 seconds ago. Therefore, a “What forecasters ly simple, but extremely United States (CONUS), powerful new satellite capa- respectively. On a typical forecaster may see an image could not dream of bility that will be available to day, CONUS imagery is of a timestamp of 7:01 PM that was actually taken by seeing before will forecasters after the launch made available to the fore- of the Geostationary Oper- caster every 15 minutes the satellite at 7:00 PM. In be easily seen in ational Environmental Satel- with one scan of the entire addition a full-disk image will near real time.” lite – R (GOES-R) satellite western hemisphere, called be possible once every 15 which is currently in the a full-disk scan, once every minutes. Immediately, this process of being developed: 3 hours, during which time changes everything. What one minute satellite imagery. the regularly scheduled 15 forecasters could not dream Satellite pictures available minute CONUS image is of seeing before will be easily on a one minute time scale not available. While this seen in near real time. In might not sound like a lot or time-step is good for look- fact, even with recent Dop- even relatively impressive in ing at large scale weather pler upgrades, it still today’s modern world of patterns and slow moving can only deliver an image of super technology, but to systems like hurricanes, it is the lowest scan once every weather forecasters it is a not good at all for looking 2.5 minutes. Virtually over- big deal for a variety of rea- at smaller scale fast moving night, the utility of satellite sons. To appreciate this new features like an individual data will increase exponen- technology, we first must or any of the tially. That’s not the only take a look at the current features associated with a trick up GOES-R’s sleeve. In state of geostationary satel- thunderstorm. It becomes addition to better time reso- lite technology in the NWS even worse when consider- lution and faster latency, the today. GOES-13 and GOES ing that it takes 30-45 resolution of the imagery -15 are currently in geosta- minutes for the imagery to from GOES-R will be twice tionary (meaning it stays in reach the forecaster after it as good as it is now. Finally, if the same place relative to is taken by the satellite. So, you think of a satellite as a

CHANGING SKIES VOLUME 12, ISSUE 1 P A G E 3

TV it currently has 5 bands, would be helpful to them to Ryan Ellis, a forecaster at each like a different channel make the job of forecasting WFO Raleigh, attended a week on a TV. This is how different easier, where the new technol- long session at the Operations products such as infrared ogy excels, and where it could Proving Ground in Kansas City satellite imagery or water use some work. This bridge of and worked with other fore- vapor imagery are produced. communication between re- casters from different offices Bands can also be combined searchers and forecasters is around the country to provide to produce new products. meant to help streamline the feedback to the Operations GOES-R will not carry just 5 process bands, it will carry 16 bands of imple- which can all be used in con- menting junction with each other to new re- produce many products never search capable before. These prod- into oper- ucts can be used to track any- ations in thing from aviation icing po- an effi- tential to overshooting tops cient on . manner. In the While the GOES-R satellite is case of scheduled to launch in March GOES-R, of 2016, much has to be done the Oper- in the meantime to prepare ations not only the physical satellite Proving for orbit, but to also prepare Ground the forecaster for the new was able 16 Spectral Bands Available in on the GOES-R ABI influx of data and to find situ- to attain ations where the data will be sample 1-minute data for a Proving Ground Staff. After helpful in the forecasting pro- variety of situations from the spending a week with the team cess that is currently is not current satellite (which can be in Kansas City working with because of the aforemen- done for short times in small the new data, it was apparent tioned limitations of the cur- areas but with all the inherent that the new GOES-R technol- rent technology. Enter the other limitations still present). ogy will have a tremendous NOAA/NWS Operations The data is then presented to impact on forecasting as well Proving Ground. The Opera- the forecaster in a simulated as helping critical decision tions Proving Ground, located environment that mimics the makers in the community re- in Kansas City, Missouri is setup in a real NWS office and ceive better and more timely tasked with running Opera- the forecasters “work” each information that will hopefully tional Readiness Experiments case in real time just like they allow them to do their jobs (OREs) on certain technolo- would in the office. As fore- more efficiently, ultimately gies before they are imple- casters work with the new saving lives and mitigating mented into the field. That is data they provide feedback on weather related impacts within to say an area where re- how the data helped or in the community. searchers working on the some cases hurt them when new technology can introduce trying to do their job in vari- -Ryan Ellis new products to forecasters ous scenarios. and in return forecaster can provide feedback on what P A G E 4 Lions and Lambs: Spring in NC is a Mixed Bag of Weather

Warning Signs Not every storm warrants an emergency. But many seem- ingly mundane storms can turn deadly quickly and with- out warning. Dangers linked with severe storms include lightning, tornadoes, strong winds, hail and flash flooding.

“There isn’t much notice before a storm takes a dan- gerous turn but there are some key warning signs,” said Tornado Damage from 2011 (NCDPS-NCEM) Sprayberry. “If after seeing lightning, you cannot count The old saying that March injured 34 people in our to 30 before hearing thunder, “North Carolina roars in like a lion and rolls state. Nine of those torna- then you need to go in- has been spared out like a lamb takes on new does struck in one day in doors.” meaning when it comes to eastern North Carolina, dam- severe storms so weather in North Carolina. aging or destroying more Lightning can strike as far as While spring in this state than 300 homes. Tornadoes 10 miles away from the rain far this year, but brings leaves on trees and caused more than $22 million area in a thunderstorm. warmer temperatures, it can in damages last year. That’s about the distance you the can change also be a time for unpredicta- can hear thunder. If the sky very fast.” ble storms that strike quickly In addition, the NWS issued looks threatening, people and leave devastating effects. more than 632 severe thun- should take shelter even be- derstorm warnings, and rec- fore they hear thunder. “North Carolina has been orded more than 686 inci- spared severe storms so far dents of severe thunder- “Lightning strikes are one of this year, but that can change storms with damaging winds the top three storm-related very fast.” said Mike Spray- and/or large hail. The severe killers in the United States,” berry, North Carolina Emer- storms killed three people, said Nicholas Petro, warning gency Management director. injured seven others, and coordinator meteorologist “While spring and late fall are caused $3.5 million in damag- for the National Weather typically peak tornado sea- es. Service’s Raleigh Office. son, severe storms and tor- “Over the past 30 years, flash nadoes can pop up any time.”

Sprayberry said that it’s criti- cal to know what to do and where to go when storms threaten. Have a plan in place and listen for weather alerts to be ready for any weather- related emergency, he ad- vised.

In 2014, the National Weath- er Service issued 81 tornado warnings and recorded 36 tornadoes that killed one and Emergency Preparedness Kit (NCDPS-NCEM)

CHANGING SKIES VOLUME 12, ISSUE 1 P A G E 5 flooding has been responsible means a tornado is possible. Knowing what to do when se- for more deaths than any other WARNING means a torna- vere weather threatens can save thunderstorm-associated haz- do has been spotted; take lives. There are different places ard.” shelter immediately. that you need to go to depend- ing on the weather emergency and your location.  At Home – Go to the base- ment. Under the stairs or in a bathroom or closet also are good spots. Put as many walls as possible between you and the outside.  At Work – Go to the base- ment if there is one. Stair- wells, bathrooms and clos- ets are good spots. As a last resort, crawl under your Tornado Damage from 2011 ((NCDPS-NCEM) desk.  At School – Seek shelter in  Know where the nearest inside hallways, small closets Tornadoes, nature’s most vio- safe room is, such as a base- and bathrooms. Get out of lent storms, are formed from ment or interior room and mobile classrooms, gymnasi- powerful thunderstorms. They away from windows, and go ums, auditoriums and other show up as spinning, funnel- there immediately if you rooms with a large expanse shaped clouds that reach from a hear or see a tornado. of roof. Bus drivers should thunderstorm to the ground  If driving, you should leave be alert for bad weather on with whirling winds that can your vehicle immediately to their routes. reach 300 miles per hour. Dam- seek safety in an adequate  In Stores – Seek shelter age paths can be in excess of structure. Do not try to against an inside wall. An one mile wide and 50 miles long. outrun a tornado in your enclosed hallway or fire vehicle, and do not stop exit leading away from the Sprayberry reminds people to under an overpass or a main mall concourse is a look for the warning signs, espe- bridge. good spot. Stay away cially in the case of tornadoes,  If you are outdoors, and from skylights and large which are known by a large there is no shelter available, open areas. dark, low-lying cloud take cover in a low-lying flat The free ReadyNC mobile app (particularly if rotating) and a area. Watch out for flying provides real-time traffic and loud roar, much like a freight debris. weather information plus in- train.  Following a storm, wear formation about opened shel- sturdy shoes, long sleeves ters and riverine flood levels. Safety Tips and gloves when walking on The app also provides basic North Carolina Emergency Man- or near debris, and be instructions on how to devel- Students Sheltering agement officials recommend aware of exposed nails and op an emergency prepared- having a weather that broken glass. ness plan. The ReadyNC.org in Place During at broadcasts NWS alerts when  Be aware of damaged pow- website provides information Tornado Drill severe weather threatens. Many to help you prepare for severe er or gas lines and electrical (NCDPS-NCEM) North Carolina tornado fatali- systems that may cause weather and tornadoes, in- ties have occurred at night when fires, electrocution or ex- cluding how to make an emer- people are asleep and less likely plosions. gency supplies kit and what to to receive a warning without a “It’s good to not only have an do during and after severe weather radio. emergency plan in place but also storms. Emergency officials recommend to practice it annually so that people use the following safety you know where to go during -Laura Leonard tips: severe weather,” said Sprayber- NC Emergency  Know the terms: WATCH ry. Management P A G E 6 Cold February Doesn’t Tell the Whole Winter Story

If you were to ask someone grees below normal, respec- 5.4 inches. At GSO, 9.6 inch- living in Raleigh, “What was tively, February had to have es of snow fell in February, this past winter like?” you been quite a bit below nor- which was the seasonal total would probably get answers mal. As you can see from the like “cold” and “freezing”. table below, it was, and by The tendency is to remember nearly 10 degrees at that. the most recent memory, and since February was cold, the In fact, at RDU, February winter is remembered as cold. 2015 tied with 1934 for the We’ll delve deeper into the 4th coldest February on February numbers a bit later, record! Not to be left out, but let us look at the winter at GSO February 2015 tied as a whole first. Climatological with 1963 for the 6th cold- winter is from December 1st est February on record. through February 28th (29th Also of note are the tem- in a leap year), or December, perature records that January, February. The normal were set, or not set, this average temperature for that winter. There were no tem- as well. The normal seasonal three month period at the perature records set at ei- snowfall at GSO is 6.6 inches. Raleigh Durham International ther location during the Given those numbers, it may airport (RDU) is 42.9 degrees, month of December, and be somewhat surprising that and at the Piedmont-Triad only one, a record low at only one daily snowfall rec- International airport (GSO) is GSO, in January. In contrast, ord was set between the two 40.8 degrees. The winter of there were 11 temperature sites. Neither location fell in records set between the two the top 5 snowiest Febru- sites in February. At RDU, ary’s on record, despite the there were four record low monthly snowfall totals being maximum temperatures and higher than the seasonal nor- one record low temperature. mal. However, GSO did At GSO, there were also 4 manage to make the top ten, record low maximum tem- coming in at the 6th snowiest peratures, two record low February on record (last Feb- temperatures. It is no won- ruary is bumped to 8th). It der the word that comes to may also be of interest, that Snow in NWS Raleigh Parking Lot 2/24/15 mind when we think of this at RDU, last February (2014) past winter is “cold,” as the was the 5th snowiest Febru- 2014-2015 was actually only cold weather in February was ary on record, having re- slightly below normal from a pretty memorable. ceived 11.2 inches. So, were temperature perspective, with we above normal for snow- the average temperatures at Let’s not forget about win- fall and below normal for RDU and GSO of 39.8 de- tery precipitation. Again, Feb- temperatures this past win- grees and 38.7 degrees, re- ruary contained just about all ter? Yes. However, the real spectively. In fact, the average of it. Aside from trace significant snowfall and tem- temperature in the month of amounts, there was almost peratures all occurred during December was actually above no snow to speak of in De- the month of February at normal at both locations (see cember and January at both both RDU and GSO, while tables below). Also, the aver- RDU and GSO. February was both December and January age monthly temperature for a completely different story. were relatively close to nor- January was only slightly be- At RDU, 7.9 inches of snow mal with respect to tempera- low normal at both locations. fell during the month of Feb- tures, and below normal with Thus, for the seasonal average ruary, which was also the respect to snowfall. temperature at RDU and season total. The normal -Kathleen Pelczynski GSO to be 3.1 and 2.1 de- seasonal snowfall at RDU is

CHANGING SKIES VOLUME 12, ISSUE 1 P A G E 7

Weather Balloons (continued from page 1)

advances in technolo- gy, the advances we have seen in would not be what they are without the weather balloon. They are so important in fact, that when large im- pact storms, like Hurricane Sandy, come along special balloon releases are done to try to gather more observational data within the storm to help improve the track and intensity forecast. Jessica King, Kathleen Magee and Ruth Kimble (left to right) On March 6, Jessica King, Kathleen Magee and forecast, the end result should height of near 100,000 feet be- Michael Scanlan participated in theoretically be better. This oc- fore the balloon eventually an operational balloon launch curs because a reduction in er- bursts, and the instrument pack led by Ruth Kimble. From ror at the beginning of the time returns to earth via parachute. preparing the , to period helps reduction in errors Now because the jetstream of- blowing up the balloon and at the end of the forecast peri- ten can carry the balloon hun- attaching the radiosonde and od. Thus, the old saying “garbage dreds of miles from its original parachute and then finally in, garbage out”, which basically launch site, we don’t often get launching and locking on to says if you put bad data into the the back. That the balloon with the antenna, model initially, the forecast is doesn’t mean the data is lost the process takes about an going to be bad. though because a small gps hour. The flight that follows tracker and radio antenna re- takes about a half hour to Without a lot of ways to obtain ceives the data from the balloon data through the depth of the complete. After that point as it is ascending. The data is the data is forwarded to the atmosphere, weather balloons then immediately transferred to forecast office in Raleigh and continue to be the tried and the true method of doing just that. to NCEP for inclusion into the forecast office in Raleigh and models. While most of the So how is it done? To start with, integrated into the forecast pro- forecast process takes place in weather balloons are launched cess in the form of an atmos- at the same sites around the the office, it is nice to get out pheric sounding or Skew-T plot. into the field once in a while world every day at the same The same data is also sent to and see the data physically times twice a day (0000 and Washington, D.C. where it is 1200 UTC). About an hour be- being harvested and appreciat- incorporated into the forecast ing all the work that goes into fore the launch time, an instru- models run at the National Cen- that process every day, twice ment pack called a radiosonde is ters for Environmental Predic- a day. prepared for launch and tied to tion (NCEP). a helium filled latex balloon that when let go, ascends rapidly It is safe to say that without -Ryan Ellis through the atmosphere to a weather balloons, despite all the NOAA’s National Weather Service Raleigh, NC 1005 Capability Drive Suite 300 Centennial Campus Raleigh, NC 27606 Phone: 919-515-8209 Fax: 919-515-8213

NWS Raleigh Welcomes New Electronics Technician

AL, where he has worked for 2 Wayland Baptist University and a 1/2 years and is a highly- Master's in Business Administra- respected technician at that of- tion from the University of fice for his teamwork and skills in Phoenix. Steven will be moving electronics. Prior to coming to to Raleigh with his family in the NWS, Steven was an elec- April, and it will be nice for Ste- tronics technician at Sheppard ven to be much closer to family Air Force Base in Texas where, members that live in central in addition to working on radar North Carolina. Steven, con- equipment, he maintained several gratulations and welcome to Steven Solana UNIX-based Local Area Net- WFO Raleigh! Steven Solana has been se- work (LAN) systems. He also lected as the second elec- was an Air Traffic Control Radar -Darin Figurskey tronics technician at the Electronics Technician for the

NWS office in Raleigh. Ste- U.S. Marine Corps in Yuma, AZ. ven comes to us from the Steven has a Bachelor's Degree NWS office in Birmingham, in Business Administration from