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The European Monetary Union Nicola Acocella Frontmatter More Information Cambridge University Press 978-1-108-84087-3 — The European Monetary Union Nicola Acocella Frontmatter More Information The European Monetary Union The European Union is at a crossroads. This book analyzes the historical roots of the EU’s monetary and financial institutions in order to better understand its struggle to maintain an economic and monetary union, as well as the ongoing problems facing the euro. The institutions of the EU are based on the operation of free markets, a common monetary policy, and the European Central Bank. These founding policies have created many of the imbalances at the root of the ongoing European recession. Reemerging threats of populism and localism are poised to further disintegrate the European construction and may spark fierce opposition between countries. Nicola Acocella engages with these risks, suggesting detailed actions for reform within the EU and its institutions that may steer it away from further conflict, allowing it to better serve its member states and citizens. nicola acocella is professor emeritus of Economic Policy at the Sapienza University of Rome. He is the author of Rediscovering Economic Policy as a Discipline (2018) and coauthor of Macroeconomic Paradigms and Economic Policy (2016), among other books. © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-1-108-84087-3 — The European Monetary Union Nicola Acocella Frontmatter More Information © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-1-108-84087-3 — The European Monetary Union Nicola Acocella Frontmatter More Information The European Monetary Union Europe at the Crossroads nicola acocella Sapienza University of Rome © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-1-108-84087-3 — The European Monetary Union Nicola Acocella Frontmatter More Information University Printing House, Cambridge CB2 8BS, United Kingdom One Liberty Plaza, 20th Floor, New York, NY 10006, USA 477 Williamstown Road, Port Melbourne, VIC 3207, Australia 314–321, 3rd Floor, Plot 3, Splendor Forum, Jasola District Centre, New Delhi – 110025, India 79 Anson Road, #06–04/06, Singapore 079906 Cambridge University Press is part of the University of Cambridge. It furthers the University’s mission by disseminating knowledge in the pursuit of education, learning, and research at the highest international levels of excellence. www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9781108840873 DOI: 10.1017/9781108892858 © Nicola Acocella 2020 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2020 A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Acocella, Nicola, 1939– author. Title: The European Monetary Union : Europe at the crossroads / Nicola Acocella, Sapienza University of Rome. Description: New York, NY : Cambridge University Press, 2020. | Includes index. Identifiers: LCCN 2020007278 (print) | LCCN 2020007279 (ebook) | ISBN 9781108840873 (hardback) | ISBN 9781108744102 (paperback) | ISBN 9781108892858 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: Economic and Monetary Union. | Monetary unions – European Union countries. | European Union. Classification: LCC HC241.2 .A6317 2020 (print) | LCC HC241.2 (ebook) | DDC 337.1/42–dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020007278 LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020007279 ISBN 978-1-108-84087-3 Hardback ISBN 978-1-108-74410-2 Paperback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-1-108-84087-3 — The European Monetary Union Nicola Acocella Frontmatter More Information Dedicated to Andrew Hughes Hallett, an author of many books and a coauthor of mine in some of them, who recently died. © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-1-108-84087-3 — The European Monetary Union Nicola Acocella Frontmatter More Information © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-1-108-84087-3 — The European Monetary Union Nicola Acocella Frontmatter More Information Contents List of Figures page xii List of Tables xv Preface xvii Acknowledgments xxii List of Abbreviations xxiii PART I THE HISTORICAL AND INSTITUTIONAL BACKGROUND 1 1 The Preparation of the European Economic and Monetary Union 3 1.1 The Steps of European Integration and the Underlying Problems 3 1.2 The European Monetary System 11 1.3 The EMS Crisis of 1992–1993 14 1.4 German Unification, the Impossible Trinity, and the Maastricht Treaty 17 1.5 The Line of Arguments in the Next Chapters 26 2 The Institutions of the European Economic and Monetary Union 27 2.1 Introduction 27 2.2 Macroeconomic Policies: Monetary Policy 28 2.3 Fiscal Policy and Consolidation 32 2.4 Wage and Incomes Policy 36 2.5 The Exchange Rate Policy 38 2.6 Microeconomic Policies and the Budget 39 2.7 Competition Legislation 44 2.8 Social and Cohesion Policies 49 vii © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-1-108-84087-3 — The European Monetary Union Nicola Acocella Frontmatter More Information viii contents 2.9 Regional Policy 52 2.10 Industrial, Agricultural, and Trade Policies 55 2.11 Financial Regulation, Micro-Prudential and Credit Policy 58 2.12 Environmental Policy 60 2.13 Financial Assistance to the Countries 62 2.14 The Logic and the Faults of the Institutional Design. A Perspective View of Integration Policies 63 3 Theoretical Foundations and Practical Interests behind European Institutions 68 3.1 The Virtues of Markets in a Currency Union 69 3.2 Government Is the Beast: Finding the Appropriate Setting for the Central Bank 77 3.3 Against Discretionary and Coordinated Fiscal Action 81 3.4 The Role of Interests 89 3.5 The Influence of EMU Institutions in a Long-Term Perspective and Secular Stagnation 97 PART II INSTITUTIONS AND POLICIES INACTION 103 4 Asymmetries, Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Imbalances 105 4.1 Expectations from the Union 105 4.2 Mechanisms of Adjustment to Shocks in a Currency Area 109 4.3 Realizations: The Situation at the Onset of the Crisis 114 4.4 Imbalances within Europe: Their Ties 123 © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-1-108-84087-3 — The European Monetary Union Nicola Acocella Frontmatter More Information contents ix 5 The Great Recession: How It Developed in Europe 142 5.1 Introduction 142 5.2 A Few Facts and Figures 144 5.3 The Crisis: The EMU’s Financial and Fiscal Fragility 147 5.4 The Dynamics of the Crisis in the EMU 152 5.5 The Components of Growth before and after the Crisis 161 5.6 Efficiency and Equity in the EMU before and after the Crisis 164 5.7 Prospects of Stagnation in the EA: The Impact of the Great Recession, Rising Inequality, Globalization, and Institutions 180 6 Policies and Institutions Put to the Test of the Great Recession 185 6.1 Policies in the United States and the EMU 185 6.2 Policies in Washington 185 6.3 Policies in Frankfurt and Around 188 6.4 Why So Many Differences? The Role of EMU Institutions and the Crisis 195 6.5 New Tendencies and Obstacles 206 7 Asymmetries, Imbalances, Signals, and Incentives to Change 208 7.1 The EMU as an External Tie for Removing Asymmetries between Countries 208 7.2 Is Monetary and Fiscal Discipline Effective? 213 7.3 The Incentives 216 7.4 Incentives and Signals. Wrong or Noisy Signals of Imbalances 221 © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-1-108-84087-3 — The European Monetary Union Nicola Acocella Frontmatter More Information x contents 7.5 Moral Hazard and Adverse Selection of Policymakers 227 7.6 Imbalances, Market and Government Failures 230 PART III LINES OF REFORM OF EMU INSTITUTIONS 233 8 How to Reform the EU and the EMU: Broad Outlines 235 8.1 As an Introduction 235 8.2 What Has Worked in the EMU, and What Has Not? 236 8.3 Rip van Winkle and the Rebuttal of the Theoretical Convictions of the 1970s and 1980s 241 8.4 The Need for Revisiting the Inflation Target 244 8.5 Fiscal Multipliers, Consolidation, and European Institutions 246 8.6 The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas, the Foundations of the EMU, and the Reasons for Reduced Support in It 251 8.7 For a Fairer EMU at the Service of Citizens and Not Prone to Financial Crises and Stagnation 254 8.8 A Common Growth Strategy Instead of Competitive Strategies by Different Countries 257 8.9 The EMU, the State, and the Local Level: More, Stronger (and More Active) Common Institutions or Institutional Competition? 260 9 How to Reform the EU and the EMU: Macroeconomic Policy Instruments of the Common Strategy 265 9.1 Monetary Policy 265 © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-1-108-84087-3 — The European Monetary Union Nicola Acocella Frontmatter More Information contents xi 9.2 The Need for Strengthening Financial Regulation and Supervision: Macroprudential
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