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A Tale of Two Species: Black-Tailed and White-Tailed Prairie Dog Biogeography from the Last Interglacial to 2070

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A Tale of Two Species: Black-Tailed and White-Tailed Prairie Dog Biogeography from the Last Interglacial to 2070 East Tennessee State University Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University Electronic Theses and Dissertations Student Works 5-2020 A Tale of Two Species: Black-tailed and White-tailed Prairie Dog Biogeography from the Last Interglacial to 2070 April Dawn Bledsoe East Tennessee State University Follow this and additional works at: https://dc.etsu.edu/etd Part of the Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Commons, Natural Resources and Conservation Commons, Paleobiology Commons, Physical and Environmental Geography Commons, and the Spatial Science Commons Recommended Citation Bledsoe, April Dawn, "A Tale of Two Species: Black-tailed and White-tailed Prairie Dog Biogeography from the Last Interglacial to 2070" (2020). Electronic Theses and Dissertations. Paper 3764. https://dc.etsu.edu/etd/3764 This Thesis - unrestricted is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Works at Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University. It has been accepted for inclusion in Electronic Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University. For more information, please contact [email protected]. A Tale of Two Species: Black-tailed and White-tailed Prairie Dog Biogeography from the Last Interglacial to 2070 ________________________ A thesis presented to the faculty of the Department of Geosciences East Tennessee State University In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Master of Science in Geosciences, Geospatial Analysis ______________________ by April D. Bledsoe May 2020 _____________________ T. Andrew Joyner, Chair Ingrid E. Luffman Jim I. Mead Keywords: Biogeography, Ecological Niche Modeling, Species Distribution Modeling, Prairie Dogs, Climate Change ABSTRACT A Tale of Two Species: Black-tailed and White-tailed Prairie Dog Biogeography from the Last Interglacial to 2070 by April D. Bledsoe Ecological niche models (ENMs) were created for White-tailed and Black-tailed prairie dogs and projected into the Last Interglacial (LI), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and mid-Holocene (mid-H) to discern possible past suitable habitat for both species. Additionally, ENMs were projected into the future year 2070 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 to discern how climate change may affect future habitat suitability. Kernel density estimations, minimum convex polygons, and median distribution centers of White-tailed and Black-tailed occurrence records were examined between time-periods to discern the effects of anthropogenic westward expansion on both species’ distributions. Current ENMs were constructed from commonly used bioclimatic variables and non-traditional variables (including EPA level III Ecoregions) for White-tailed and Black-tailed prairie dogs for variable comparison performance in ENMs. Results indicate that both species respond to climate change and each occupy distinct ecological niches. Biogeographical changes coincident with westward expansion remain unknown. 2 Copyright 2020 by April D. Bledsoe All Rights Reserved 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am grateful for the edits and input from Drs. J. Mead and I. Luffman throughout every stage of this research. Their knowledge and support for this research has been invaluable. I thank my committee chair and advisor, Dr. T. Andrew Joyner especially, for his time commitments in the success of this thesis and my scientific, professional growth. 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ...............................................................................................................................2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.........................................................................................................4 LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................................7 LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................................8 CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................. 12 Evolutionary Origin ............................................................................................................... 12 Current Biogeography ........................................................................................................... 13 Life History Strategies ........................................................................................................... 13 Keystone Status ..................................................................................................................... 15 Ecosystem Engineer Status .................................................................................................... 16 Conservation Status ............................................................................................................... 18 Paleobiogeography ................................................................................................................ 20 Species Distribution and Ecological Niche Modeling............................................................. 22 Goals and Objectives ............................................................................................................. 23 CHAPTER 2. PROJECTING RELATIVE OCCURRENCE RATES FOR WHITE-TAILED AND BLACK-TAILED PRAIRE DOGS WITH MAXENT ..................................................... 25 ABSTRACT .......................................................................................................................... 25 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 27 Methods ................................................................................................................................ 30 Results................................................................................................................................... 35 Discussion ............................................................................................................................. 51 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................... 60 References ............................................................................................................................. 62 CHAPTER 3. SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING WITH KERNEL DENSITY ESTIMATION AND MINIMUM CONVEX POLYGONS TO DISCERN CHANGES IN PRAIRIE DOG DISTRIBUTIONS SINCE WESTWARD EXPANSION ................................. 66 ABSTRACT .......................................................................................................................... 66 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 67 Methods ................................................................................................................................ 73 Results................................................................................................................................... 75 Discussion ............................................................................................................................. 88 References ............................................................................................................................. 97 5 CHAPTER 4. FEASIBILITY OF INCLUSION OF ECOREGIONS AND OTHER UNDERUTILIZED ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS IN ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING FOR PRAIRIE DOGS ............................................................................................................. 102 ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................ 102 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 104 Methods .............................................................................................................................. 107 Results................................................................................................................................. 112 Discussion ........................................................................................................................... 119 Conclusions ......................................................................................................................... 122 References ........................................................................................................................... 124 CHAPTER 5. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK ........................................................ 128 Conclusions ......................................................................................................................... 128 Study One (Chapter 2) ..................................................................................................... 128 Study Two (Chapter 3) .................................................................................................... 132 Study Three (Chapter 4) .................................................................................................. 133 Future Work ........................................................................................................................ 135 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................... 137 APPENDICES
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