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Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons

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Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons atmosphere Article Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Present and Future Horizons. Part 2: Modeling Component of the Research Program RENOVRISK-CYCLONE Christelle Barthe 1,2,* , Olivier Bousquet 1,3 , Soline Bielli 1 , Pierre Tulet 1,2 , Joris Pianezze 1 , Marine Claeys 1,4, Chia-Lun Tsai 1,5 , Callum Thompson 1 , François Bonnardot 6 , Fabrice Chauvin 4 , Julien Cattiaux 4 , Marie-Noëlle Bouin 4,7 , Vincent Amelie 8, Guilhem Barruol 9 , Radiance Calmer 1,10, Stéphane Ciccione 11 , Emmanuel Cordier 12 , Quoc-Phi Duong 1 , Jonathan Durand 1, Frauke Fleischer-Dogley 13, Romain Husson 14, Edouard Lees 1, Sylvie Malardel 1 , Nicolas Marquestaut 1,12, Alberto Mavume 15 , Dominique Mékiès 1, Alexis Mouche 7 , Navalona Manitriniana Ravoson 16, Bruno Razafindradina 17, Elisa Rindraharisaona 9,18 , Gregory Roberts 4,19 , Manvendra Singh 20, Lova Zakariasy 17 and Jonas Zucule 21 1 Laboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones, Université de La Réunion, CNRS, Météo-France, 97400 Saint-Denis, France; [email protected] (O.B.); [email protected] (S.B.); [email protected] (P.T.); [email protected] (J.P.); [email protected] (M.C.); [email protected] (C.-L.T.); [email protected] (C.T.); [email protected] (R.C.); [email protected] (Q.-P.D.); [email protected] (J.D.); [email protected] (E.L.); [email protected] (S.M.); [email protected] (N.M.); [email protected] (D.M.) Citation: Barthe, C.; Bousquet, O.; 2 Laboratoire d’Aérologie, Université de Toulouse, UT3, CNRS, IRD, 31400 Toulouse, France Bielli, S.; Tulet, P.; Pianezze, J.; 3 Institute for Coastal Marine Research, Nelson Mandela University, Port-Elizabeth 6031, South Africa Claeys, M.; Tsai, C.-L.; Thompson, C.; 4 CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, 31057 Toulouse, France; Bonnardot, F.; Chauvin, F.; et al. [email protected] (F.C.); [email protected] (J.C.); [email protected] (M.-N.B.); Impact of Tropical Cyclones on [email protected] (G.R.) 5 Inhabited Areas of the SWIO Basin at Center for Atmospheric REmote Sensing (CARE), Department of Astronomy and Atmospheric Sciences, Present and Future Horizons. Part 2: Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Korea 6 Modeling Component of the Research Direction Interrégionale de Météo-France pour l’Océan Indien, 97400 Saint-Denis, France; [email protected] Program RENOVRISK-CYCLONE. 7 Laboratoire d’Océanographie Physique et Spatiale, Université de Brest, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD, IUEM, Atmosphere 2021, 12, 689. https:// 29280 Plouzané, France; [email protected] doi.org/10.3390/atmos12060689 8 Seychelles Meteorological Authority, Mahé 670311, Seychelles; [email protected] 9 Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Université de Paris, CNRS, 75005 Paris, France; Academic Editor: Corene Matyas [email protected] (G.B.); [email protected] (E.R.) 10 National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Received: 30 April 2021 University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80304, USA 11 Accepted: 26 May 2021 Kelonia, Observatoire des Tortues Marines de La Réunion, 97436 Saint-Leu, France; Published: 28 May 2021 [email protected] 12 Observatoire des Sciences de l’Univers de La Réunion (UAR 3365 OSU-R), 97400 Saint-Denis, France; [email protected] Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral 13 Seychelles Islands Foundation, Mahé 670311, Seychelles; [email protected] with regard to jurisdictional claims in 14 Collecte Localisation Satellites (CLS), 29280 Brest, France; [email protected] published maps and institutional affil- 15 Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo CP 257, Mozambique; iations. [email protected] 16 Institut et Observatoire de Géophysique d’Antisiranana, Université d’Antisiranana, Antananarivo 101, Madagascar; [email protected] 17 Institut Supérieur de Technologie d’Antisiranana, Antsiranana 201, Madagascar; hbrazafi[email protected] (B.R.); [email protected] (L.Z.) Copyright: © 2021 by the authors. 18 Laboratoire GéoSciences Réunion (LGSR), Université de La Réunion, 97400 Saint-Denis, France Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. 19 Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, CA 92093, USA 20 This article is an open access article Mauritius Oceanography Institute, Albion 95410, Mauritius; [email protected] 21 distributed under the terms and Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INAM), Maputo CP 256, Mozambique; [email protected] conditions of the Creative Commons * Correspondence: [email protected] Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ Abstract: The ReNovRisk-Cyclone program aimed at developing an observation network in the 4.0/). south-west Indian ocean (SWIO) in close synergy with the implementation of numerical tools to Atmosphere 2021, 12, 689. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12060689 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/atmosphere Atmosphere 2021, 12, 689 2 of 29 model and analyze the impacts of tropical cyclones (TC) in the present and in a context of climate change. This paper addresses the modeling part of the program. First, a unique coupled system to simulate TCs in the SWIO is developed. The ocean–wave–atmosphere coupling is considered along with a coherent coupling between sea surface state, wind field, aerosol, microphysics, and radiation. This coupled system is illustrated through several simulations of TCs: the impact of air–sea flux parameterizations on the evolution of TC Fantala is examined, the full coupling developed during the program is illustrated on TC Idai, and the potential of novel observations like space-borne synthetic aperture radar and sea turtles to validate the atmosphere and ocean models is presented with TC Herold. Secondly, the evolution of cyclonic activity in the SWIO during the second half of the 21st century is assessed. It was addressed both using climate simulation and through the implementation of a pseudo global warming method in the high-resolution coupled modeling platform. Our results suggest that the Mascarene Archipelago should experience an increase of TC related hazards in the medium term. Keywords: tropical cyclone; south-west Indian ocean; cloud-resolving model; ocean–wave–atmosphere coupling; climate modeling 1. Introduction Due to the possible devastating combination of extreme winds, torrential precipitation, storm surge, and high waves, tropical cyclones (TC) are a major threat for impacted territories. This is particularly true in the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO) that represents 10–12% of the global TC activity [1,2] and includes several countries with precarious economies and fragile infrastructures, making them highly vulnerable to cyclonic risks. Madagascar, which ranks among the poorest countries in the world, is regularly affected by TCs. Between 1999 and 2016, 34 systems directly hit Madagascar, 10 of which as a TC at the time of landfall [3]. In March 2004, TC Gafilo—the most intense TC ever observed in the SWIO at this date—made landfall in the north-east of Madagascar, leaving more than 200,000 victims, 400 deaths, and damages estimated at USD 250 million. In 2017, TC Enawo hit almost the same region of Madagascar at the peak of its intensity (maximum wind speed of 57 m s−1). The associated storm surge, high winds and heavy rains led to 81 deaths, 300,000 victims, heavily damaged structures, and severe losses in rice fields (damages estimated at ∼USD 137 million). Mozambique is also frequently hit by tropical depressions with 16 direct hits between 1999 and 2016 [3]. In 2019, TC Idai made landfall in the region of Beira. Wind gusts and torrential rainfall devastated the crops, destroyed more than 29,500 houses, and damaged tens of thousands of others, leading to a major humanitarian crisis. More than 1000 people died and 2.6 million victims were reported. The damages were estimated at USD 2 billion in the impacted region (Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Madagascar). Six weeks later, TC Kenneth, after devastating the Comoros archipelago, hit the north of Mozambique, in the region of Pemba, worsening the humanitarian, sanitary, and economic situation of the country. This high exposure to natural disaster adds to the dependence on agriculture and natural resources and leads to severe humanitarian crises, which are most of the time under-reported in the media. Due to its relatively small size (∼60 km in diameter), La Réunion (21.1◦ S, 55.5◦ E) is not frequently directly hit by TCs but is regularly affected by systems passing at a few tens or hundreds of kilometers away. In 2002, the eye of TC Dina passed more than 65 km away from the north-west of the island. However, due to the strong winds, swell, and heavy rain, damages on the crops and infrastructures—in particular roads and electric networks—were estimated at several hundreds of thousands of euros. In 2007, TC Gamède passed at more than 200 km away from the island, but heavy rainfall (reinforced by the steep orography) and high swell (11.7 m recorded on the north-west shore) affected the island during several days. A rainfall rate of 4936 mm was recorded in 96 h at the Cratère Commerson raingauge station [4]. Gamede was at the origin of damages estimated at Atmosphere 2021, 12, 689 3 of 29 ∼100 millions of euros. Even if TCs do not directly hit inhabited regions, they can still have considerable economic and sanitary impact. These few examples show the importance of an accurate forecasting of TC track, inten- sity, structure, and associated hazards several days in advance to prepare populations and infrastructures, evacuate the most exposed regions, and eventually prepare humanitarian aid. Despite undeniable improvements in TC forecasting, understanding and predict- ing rapid changes in track, intensity, and structure remain a challenge in particular near landfall [5]. This limitation can be attributed to a lack of observations over the oceans, to models limitations in terms of physical parameterizations and resolution, and to limited understanding of some physical processes involved in TC intensification.
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