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Saison Cyclonique 2008-2009 Sud-Ouest De L'océan Indien Cyclone Season South-West Indian Ocean

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Saison Cyclonique 2008-2009 Sud-Ouest De L'océan Indien Cyclone Season South-West Indian Ocean Saison cyclonique 2008-2009 Sud-Ouest de l'océan Indien Cyclone season South-West Indian Ocean Sommaire Contents Introduction .............................................................................................. Page 2 Introduction Liste et intensité maximale des perturbations Page 6 List of tropical disturbances with their maximum intensities Cartographie des trajectoires .................................................................... Page 7 Map of trajectories Caractéristiques de la saison cyclonique et données statistiques .............. Page 8 Main features of the cyclone season and statistical data Note explicative sur l'analyse individuelle des perturbations ..................... Page 11 Explanatory note on the individual analysis of disturbances Analyse chronologique des perturbations de la saison ............................... Page 12 Analysis of the disturbances of the season in chronological order Informations satellitaires et techniques d'analyse ..................................... Page 76 Interpretation of satellite imagery Directeur de la publication : Yves GREGORIS Terminologie ............................................................................................. Page 78 Rédaction et réalisation : Terminology Philippe CAROFF PAO : Jean-François BOYER Classification des systèmes dépressionnaires dans le Sud-Ouest de l'océan Indien .......................................................... Page 79 Avec la contribution des Classification of tropical disturbances used in the South-West Indian Ocean prévisionnistes cyclone du CMRS de La Réunion : Catherine BIENTZ Thierry DUPONT Anne-Claire FONTAN Sébastien LANGLADE © METEO FRANCE - DIRECTION INTERREGIONALE DE LA REUNION BP 4 - 97491 SAINTE-CLOTILDE Cedex - FRANCE Géraldine RAYOT Reproduction interdite - Loi n° 92-597 du 1er juillet 1992 relative au code de la propriété intellectuelle. SAISON CYCLONIQUE Sud-Ouest de l'océan Indien CYCLONE SEASON South-West Indian Ocean 2008 - 2009 12 10 + 1 0 + 10 2 A + 12 0 + + 100 1023 1 1 8 0 0 + 2 04 4 1 + 02 1 1 + 0 00 0 0 0 + 8 1 + D 0 1 1 01 6 8 6 2 2 + 101 992 0 100 + 1 + A 1 993 + 8 0 + 0 1033 4 1 1 D 02 0 4 1 + D 2 1024 + 2 A 0 0 1 8 d 1 1096 0 100 1 8 6 1 100 8 1012 0 2 0 0 4 4 1 02 + + + 1 + + + A + + 1 1015 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 6 0 2 0 016 102 1 8 00 100 1012 1 8 2 04 1 10 99 1 10 0 0 10 00 4 99 0 6 100 6 99 99 2 99 Introduction2 6 La saison cyclonique 2008-2009 dans le Sud-Ouest de l’océan Indien The 2008/2009 Cyclone season In the South-West Indian Ocean a saison cyclonique 2008-2009 figure nettement moindre de six phénomènes Pacifique Sud-Ouest tout spécialement parmi les 6-7 saisons les moins significatifs observés, 2005-2006 surpasse – qui a connu une saison 2008-2009 L actives de ces trente dernières années même la saison 2008-2009 en terme de excessivement calme, avec un seul dans le Sud-Ouest de l’océan Indien, nombre de jours cycloniques (jours avec cyclone tropical mature s’étant développé. malgré un nombre de systèmes baptisés la présence d’un cyclone tropical sur Si le nombre de phénomènes d’une saison légèrement supérieur à la normale. Ce zone). Avec seulement deux cyclones – constat a priori paradoxal, s’explique par certes intenses –, cumulant sept petits ne dit pas forcément grand chose sur son les durées de vie généralement restreintes jours cycloniques, 2008-2009 devient degré d’activité réel (rappelant au passage passées à une intensité significative par de fait la saison la moins virulente que des prévisions saisonnières d’activité les phénomènes de cette saison. 2008- depuis 1998-1999. cyclonique qui se contenteraient de sim- 2009 a constitué la parfaite illustration Cette saison 2008-2009, en trompe-l’œil, plement tenter de prédire ce paramètre ont que le nombre de phénomènes ne saurait n’a été en réalité qu’un enchaînement de un intérêt plus que limité, voire même à lui seul résumer l’activité dune saison. météores n’ayant pu bénéficier que de peuvent donner une idée fausse de l’activité En terme de conséquences et d’impact fenêtres temporelles restreintes pour se à venir), il n’est pas totalement dénué de sur les terres habitées, cette saison aura développer, d’où la faible proportion de sens malgré tout. Car il est un domaine été moins dommageable que la précé- systèmes ayant atteint le stade de cyclone sur lequel le nombre de météores peut dente, même si Madagascar a encore été tropical. Touchant terre avant d’avoir eu jouer, c’est celui du nombre d’impacts confronté à trois météores, dont deux le temps de s’intensifier (cas de JADE ou potentiels sur les terres habitées. Si pour l’ont affecté de manière significative. d’ERIC – FANELE échappant de justesse des petites îles comme celles constitutives à un sort similaire), ou subissant le plus de l’archipel des Mascareignes (Rodrigues, Dix tempêtes tropicales se sont dévelop- souvent rapidement les foudres d’un Maurice, La Réunion), il n’y a pas vraiment pées sur le Sud-Ouest de l’océan Indien cisaillement vertical de vent rédhibitoire, de corrélation entre le nombre de phéno- lors de la saison cyclonique 2008-2009. ils n’ont ainsi pu atteindre ou se maintenir mènes à l’échelle du bassin et le risque Ce nombre de phénomènes baptisés à des niveaux d’intensité significatifs d’être touchée individuellement, il en légèrement supérieur à la moyenne que trois ou quatre jours tout au plus va différemment pour une île comme climatologique (qui est de neuf), reflète (seul le cyclone GAEL faisant exception). Madagascar, barrière large de près de en fait bien trompeusement une saison La durée de vie moyenne passée au 1500 km sur la route des cyclones venant dont l’activité perturbée a, de fait, été stade de dépression tropicale ou plus de l’est et en outre exposée aux météores largement inférieure à la normale. (i.e. tempête tropicale ou cyclone) a pouvant se développer du côté ouest, Ainsi, seulement douze systèmes même été inférieure à celle des systèmes dans le Canal de Mozambique. dépressionnaires embryonnaires ont de la saison 1998-1999, et il faut Et de fait, trois systèmes dépressionnaires nécessité l’émission de bulletins par le en fait remonter à la saison antérieure ont atterri sur la Grande Ile, un nombre CMRS de La Réunion durant cet exercice, (1997-1998) pour trouver une saison identique à celui observé la saison ce qui permet déjà de ramener le degré cyclonique dont les systèmes dépres- précédente et tout à fait dans la norme. d’activité de cette saison à un niveau sionnaires ont eu une durée de vie Deux tempêtes tropicales ont ripé plus plus conforme à sa réalité. Car depuis moyenne à un stade significatif encore ou moins rapidement sur sa face orientale que le CMRS a commencé d’exercer ses plus réduite. Et sachant que cette saison (ERIC et JADE), tandis qu’un cyclone activités (au début des années 90), une 97-98 détient quasiment la palme en tropical intense (FANELE) frappait sa côte seule saison a vu un nombre de systèmes la matière sur les 40 dernières années, sud-ouest, mais dans une zone relati- suivis moindre (2000-2001, avec 11 c’est tout dire… vement peu peuplée heureusement. Les systèmes seulement), ce qui constitue Le déficit d’activité observé cette saison îles Mascareignes n’ont été confrontées à un premier signal clair d’une saison est survenu dans un contexte d’inactivité aucune menace directe et ont simplement d’activité réduite. cyclonique quasi généralisé à l’ensemble dû essuyer les influences périphériques Et en terme de nombre de jours d’activité des océans tropicaux. En baisse specta- du cyclone GAEL et, à un degré moindre, de perturbée, indicateur beaucoup plus culaire depuis trois ans, l’activité perturbée la tempête tropicale JADE. On peut enfin représentatif du degré d’activité cyclo- a même chuté à son niveau le plus bas considérer que l’Afrique australe a été nique, cette saison se situe à un niveau depuis trente ans (1979) à l’échelle du exempte de tout phénomène, les résidus comparable à celui de la saison 2005- globe, le Sud-Ouest de l’océan Indien de l’ex-tempête IZILDA venus mourir sur le 2006, saison que l’on pouvait considérer étant plutôt moins touché que la plupart Mozambique, ne pouvant être considérés jusque là comme la moins active de la des autres bassins, et que le reste de dernière décennie. Malgré un nombre l’hémisphère Sud en particulier, le constituer un événement significatif. 2 Saison cyclonique 2008 - 2009 The activity of the 2008-2009 cyclone season can be ranked as one of the 6 or 7 lowest in the South-West Indian Ocean over the last thirty years, in spite of a slightly above normal number of named events. This a priori paradoxical situation is explained by the generally limited time during which the systems of that season remained at a significant intensity stage. The 2008-2009 season perfectly illustrates the fact that the number of events cannot in itself capture the activity of a season. In terms of the effects and impact on inhabited areas, that season was less damaging than the previous one, even though Madagascar once again was affected by three events, of which two had a significant influence. Ten tropical storms developed in the South-West Indian Ocean during the 2008-2009 cyclone season. This number of named events, which is slightly above the climatological average of nine storms, deceitfully reflects on a season which recorded in fact a significantly below normal disturbed activity. Thus, only twelve incipient low pressure systems prompted the RMSC La Reunion to issue advisories during that season, which already allows us to downgrade the activity for that season to a level closer to its reality. Indeed, ever since the RMSC began its activities (in the early 90s), only one season recorded a lower number of monitored events (2000-2001, with only 11 events), which is a first clear signal of a reduced activity for the season.
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