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Seeking an Online Social Media Radar by James Ter Veen B. In Seeking an Online Social Media Radar by James ter Veen B. in Information Technology, May 2005, American Intercontinental University M.S. in Systems Engineering, December 2009, The George Washington University A Dissertation submitted to The Faculty of The School of Engineering and Applied Science of The George Washington University in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy May 18, 2014 Dissertation directed by Sharam Sarkani Professor of Engineering and Applied Science The School of Engineering and Applied Science of The George Washington University certifies that James ter Veen has passed the Final Examination for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy as of February 27, 2014. This is the final and approved form of the dissertation. Seeking an Online Social Media Radar James ter Veen Dissertation Research Committee: Sharam Sarkani, Professor of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering; Dissertation Director Thomas Mazzuchi, Professor of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering & of Decision Sciences, Committee Member John Bischoff, Professorial Lecturer in Engineering Management and System Engineering, Committee Member Jason Dever, Professorial Lecturer in Engineering Management and System Engineering, Committee Member E. Lile Murphree, Professor of Engineering Management, Committee Member ii Copyright 2014 by James ter Veen All rights reserved. iii Dedication This dissertation is dedicated to my wife Joan for her unceasing support and patience during its production. iv Acknowledgments The author would like to thank Dr. Bob Lewis for inspiration in the field of Knowledge Management, Dr. David Rico for his research design and dissertation writing guidance and Dr. Salim Zafar for an eye-opening introduction to the analysis of multivariate data. In addition, I would like to thank all of the members of my distance program cohort who provided encouragement and peer pressure to persist in the achievement of this goal. Also, I would like to thank Mr. David Ence and Mr. Thomas Shulok for their assistance and advice with software scripting to gather and analyze tweets. v Abstract Seeking an Online Social Media Radar Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore how the application of Systems Engineering tools and techniques can be applied to rapidly process and analyze the vast amounts of data present in social media in order to yield practical knowledge for Command and Control (C2) systems. Design/methodology/approach Based upon comparative analysis of related literature a conceptual model is proposed and a Systems Engineering trade study conducted for capabilities to predict mass collective action based on social network analysis tools. Findings The study conducted in the course of this research demonstrates significant relationships between Social Network Analysis (SNA) parameters, which describe Node Influence measured in an online social network, to reported crowd sizes at protest demonstrations. Furthermore, Network Communication variables measured in an online social network were also shown to have significant relationships to reported crowd sizes. It is concluded that while further study of larger datasets is needed, this avenue of approach is warranted and could lead to an operational online social media radar sensor system. vi Research limitations The study performed utilizes a limited dataset in contrast to the rapidly changing and large volumes of data present in online social networks. To prove useful for a command and control system, large amounts of data would have to be processed rapidly, with low processing overhead and predictive capability demonstrated to a high degree. Originality/value Aspects of Social networking media are hot topics in C2 system development but as of yet, remain unrefined. What is needed are intelligent systems devised utilizing knowledge management technologies to prioritize information harvested from multiple social networks to enhance situation awareness. By following principles of Systems Engineering, an integrated system based upon this research would be able to deliver time- relevant data to the C2 operator. Information gleaned from multiple social network media will produce actionable knowledge from otherwise apparently unrelated data, thereby improving tactical C2 system effectiveness and awareness of collective action in the making. vii Table of Contents Dedication .................................................................................................................... iv Acknowledgments......................................................................................................... v Abstract ........................................................................................................................ vi List of Figures .............................................................................................................. xi List of Tables .............................................................................................................. xii 1 Chapter 1 — Introduction .................................................................................... 1 1.1 Why apply Systems Engineering to Online Social Network Analysis? ....... 2 1.2 Approach ....................................................................................................... 4 1.3 Research Problem: Sensor System Requirements ........................................ 4 2 Chapter 2 -- Literature Review........................................................................... 10 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 10 2.2 Can Online Social Network Data Yield Actionable Information? ............. 10 2.3 Can Online Social Network Data Analysis Reduce Noise?........................ 14 2.4 Can Online Social Network Data Analysis Predict Crowd Sizes? ............. 17 2.5 Can Online Network Analysis Performance Meet System Requirements? 25 2.6 Gaps in the Literature.................................................................................. 27 2.6.1 Social Network Content....................................................................... 27 2.6.2 Social Network Structure ..................................................................... 29 viii 2.6.3 Mass Collective Action Factors ........................................................... 30 2.7 Need for a New Study ................................................................................. 32 2.8 Literature Review Summary ....................................................................... 33 3 Chapter 3 -- Research Framework ..................................................................... 35 3.1 Research Framework Introduction .............................................................. 35 3.2 Conceptual Model ....................................................................................... 35 3.3 Comparative Analysis of Related Models .................................................. 37 3.4 Definition of Factors, Sub-factors and Variables ....................................... 42 3.5 Selection of Hypotheses .............................................................................. 47 3.6 Reliability and Validity Considerations ...................................................... 49 3.7 Research Framework Summary .................................................................. 50 4 Chapter 4 -- Research Methodology .................................................................. 54 4.1 Research Methodology Introduction........................................................... 54 4.2 Data Collection Process .............................................................................. 54 4.3 Data Interpretation Process ......................................................................... 81 5 Chapter 5 - Data Analysis .................................................................................. 85 5.1 Scatter plot analyses .................................................................................... 85 5.2 Summary of Scatter Plot Analysis .............................................................. 92 5.2.1 Author-to-Author Network Data Analysis .......................................... 93 5.2.2 Author-to-Subject Network Data Analysis .......................................... 95 ix 5.3 Threats to reliability and validity ................................................................ 96 5.4 Ethical and privacy considerations ............................................................. 97 6 Chapter 6 – Discussion, Results and Conclusions ............................................. 98 6.1 Discussion of the online social media radar system requirements ........... 100 6.2 Discussion of hypothesis testing ............................................................... 102 6.3 Discussion of limitations........................................................................... 104 6.4 Conclusions ............................................................................................... 104 7 References ........................................................................................................ 107 x List of Figures Figure 1 Conceptual Model of Social Networking and Collective Action ....................... 36 Figure 2 Occupy movement events 10/26/11 to 12/31/11 ................................................ 55 Figure 3 Occupy events 1/01/12 to 2/15/12 .....................................................................
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