Changes in Transit Use and Service and Associated Changes in Driving Near a New Light Rail Transit Line

MTI

Funded by U.S. Department of 2012 Water of California Census Transit Services Transportation and California Changes in Transit Use and Department of Transportation Service and Associated Changes in Driving Near a New Light Rail Transit Line MTI Report 12-02MTI Report

MTI Report 12-44 December 2012December MINETA TRANSPORTATION INSTITUTE MTI FOUNDER Hon. Norman Y. Mineta The Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) was established by Congress in 1991 as part of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Equity Act (ISTEA) and was reauthorized under the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st century (TEA-21). MTI then successfully MTI BOARD OF TRUSTEES competed to be named a Tier 1 Center in 2002 and 2006 in the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A

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With the active assistance of the California Peter Haas, Ph.D. Education Director Katherine Kao Cushing, Ph.D. Diana Wu Enviromental Science Martin Luther King, Jr. Library Donna Maurillo San José State University San José State University Communications Director DISCLAIMER Dave Czerwinski, Ph.D. Brian Michael Jenkins Marketing and Decision Science The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors, who are responsible for the facts and accuracy of the information presented National Transportation Safety and San José State University herein. This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Transportation, University Transportation Centers Security Center Program and the California Department of Transportation, in the interest of information exchange. This report does not necessarily reflect the official views or policies of the U.S. government, State of California, or the Mineta Transportation Institute, who assume no liability Asha Weinstein Agrawal, Ph.D. for the contents or use thereof. This report does not constitute a standard specification, design standard, or regulation. National Transportation Finance Center REPORT 12-44

CHANGES IN TRANSIT USE AND SERVICE AND ASSOCIATED CHANGES IN DRIVING NEAR A NEW LIGHT RAIL TRANSIT LINE

Hilary Nixon, PhD Marlon Boarnet, PhD Doug Houston, PhD Steven Spears, PhD Jeongwoo Lee, PhD

May 2015

A publication of Mineta Transportation Institute Created by Congress in 1991

College of Business San José State University San José, CA 95192-0219 TECHNICAL REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE

1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient’s Catalog No. CA-MTI-1108 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date Changes in Transit Use and Service and Associated Changes in Driving Near a May 2015 New Light Rail Transit Line 6. Performing Organization Code

7. Authors 8. Performing Organization Report Hilary Nixon, PhD, Marlon Boarnet, PhD, Doug Houston, PhD, MTI Report 12-44 Steven Spears, PhD, and Jeongwoo Lee, PhD 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. Mineta Transportation Institute College of Business 11. Contract or Grant No. San José State University DTRT12-G-UTC21 San José, CA 95192-0219 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered California Department of Transportation U.S. Department of Transportation Final Report Office of Research—MS42 Office of the Assistant Secretary for P.O. Box 942873 Research and Technology (OST-R), 14. Sponsoring Agency Code Sacramento, CA 94273-0001 University Transportation Centers Program 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE Washington, DC 20590 15. Supplemental Notes

16. Abstract Los Angeles is pursuing possibly the most ambitious rail transit investment program in the nation with plans to open six new rail transit lines between now and 2019. The report provides policy makes and planners a better understanding of the potential impacts of Los Angeles Metro’s rail transit investment program by assessing the changes in transit use of nearby residents and nearby bus service associated with the Expo Line, the first of the six new lines. Our findings indicate that changes in bus service that are coincident with the introduction of new light rail transit can negatively affect the overall transit ridership in the corridor. In addition, we find that households living near new Expo Line light rail stations reduced their vehicle miles traveled (VMT), but those households living near bus stops that were eliminated as part of the service change increased their VMT.

17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement Rail transit; Bus transit; Public No restrictions. This document is available to the public through transportation; Vehicle miles The National Technical Information Service, Springfield, VA 22161 travelled; Before-and-after

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042815 iv

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors would like to acknowledge and thank the leadership and staff at the Mineta Transportation Institute for their support of all phases of this work, including: MTI Executive Director and Director of Research, Karen Philbrick, PhD; Director of Communications and Technology Transfer Donna Maurillo, who also provided additional editorial and publication support; Research Coordinator Joseph Mercado; and Webmaster Frances Cherman. Several students assisted with the collection of the household travel survey data near the Expo Line. We thank Dongwoo Yang, Gavin Ferguson, Hsin-Ping Hsu, Gaby Abdel-Salam, Andy Hong, Xize Wang, and Sandip Chakrabarti, who assisted with survey instrument construction of data collection and analysis at various stages. Carolina Sarmiento and Grecia Alberto assisted with translation. Grecia Alberto, Priscilla Appiah, Gabriel Barreras, Dafne Gokcen, Adrienne Lindgren, Boyang Zhang, Cynthia de la Torre, Owen Serra, Lisa Frank, Greg Mayer, and Vicente Sauceda assisted with field data collection.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary 1

I. Introduction 2

II. Factors Affecting Travel Mode Choice and the Impact of Light Rail Transit on Travel Behavior: A Review of the Literature 3 Travel Mode Choice and the Theory of Planned Behavior 3 Evaluations of the Impact of LRT on Travel Behavior: The Use of “Natural Experiments” 4

III. Ridership and Services Changes: Expo Line vs. Gold Line 7 Introduction and Section Objectives 7 Overview of the Light Rail Transit Lines 7 Bus Ridership Change After LRT Opening/Extension 9 System-wide Ridership Trends 12 Service Level Change After LRT Opening/Extension 15 Route Change After LRT Opening/Extension 18 Population Density and Income Near LRT 23 Summary of Findings for Ridership and Service Changes 25

IV. Travel Patterns and Change Associated with the New Expo Line Service 27 Introduction and Section Objectives 27 Survey Data and Methods 27 Results 28 Summary of Findings for Travel Behavior Change 32

V. Conclusion and Policy Considerations 33

Appendix A: Detailed Ridership Data for Expo and Gold Lines 35

Appendix B: Survey Questions and Travel Log 41

Abbreviations and Acronyms 45

Endnotes 46

Bibliography 48

About the Authors 50

Peer Review 52

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LIST OF FIGURES

1. Exposition Line Vicinity Map 8

2. Gold Line Extension Vicinity Map 9

3. Bus Lines Traversing the Expo Line Area 10

4. Change in Total Ridership for Bus Lines that Traverse the Expo Line Area 10

5. Bus Lines Traversing the Gold Line Extension Area 11

6. Total Bus Ridership Change in Gold Line Area, 2009 Versus 2010 12

7. Total Transit Ridership Change in Gold Line Area, 2009 Versus 2010 12

8. Annual Unlinked Rail Passenger Trips, 1991-2012 14

9. Annual Unlinked Bus Passenger Trips, 1991-2012 14

10. System-wide Annual Unlinked Passenger Trips, 1992-2012 14

11. Bus Route 30 Before Expo Line Opening (June 2011) 18

12. Bus Route 30 After Expo Line Opening (June 2012) 19

13. Bus Route 102 Before Expo Line Opening (June 2011) 19

14. Bus Route 102 After Expo Line Opening (June 2012) 20

15. Bus Route 550 Before Expo Line Opening (June 2011) 20

16. Bus Route 550 After Expo Line Opening (June 2012) 21

17. Bus Route 740 Before Expo Line Opening (June 2011) 21

18. Bus Route 740 After Expo Line Opening (June 2012) 22

19. Bus Route 30 Before Gold Line Extension (June 2009) 22

20. Bus Route 30 After Gold Line Extension (June 2009) 23

21. Half-mile Radius Buffer Areas Along the Gold Line Extension 24

22. Half-mile Radius Buffer Areas Along the Expo Line 24

23. Expo Line Study Area, Approximate Participant Household Locations, and Bus Route Service Changes 27

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LIST OF TABLES

1. System-wide Average Weekday Boardings, 1991-2012 13

2. System-wide Bus Line Service Change, June 2011-June 2012 15

3. Service Change for Bus Lines Traversing Expo Line Area, June 2011-June 2012 15

4. Service Change for Individual Bus Lines Traversing Expo Line Area, June 2011-June 2012 15

5. System-wide Bus Line Service Change, June 2009-June 2010 16

6. Service Change for Individual Bus Lines Traversing Gold Line Area, June 2009-June 2010 16

7. Service Change for Individual Bus Lines Traversing Gold Line Area, June 2009-June 2010 17

8. Population and Income for Half-mile Radius Buffer Areas Along the Gold Line Extension 25

9. Population and Income for Half-mile Radius Buffer Areas Along the Expo Line 25

10. Descriptive Characteristics of Sample, by Groups 29

11. Travel Patterns and Change by Phase and Control/Experimental Groups 31

12. Travel Patterns and Change by Phase and Proximity to a Removed Bus Route Segment 31

13. Ridership Data for Bus Lines Traversing the Expo Line Area 35

14. Ridership Data for Bus Lines Traversing the Gold Line Area 38

Mineta Transportation Institute 1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Los Angeles is pursuing possibly the most ambitious rail transit investment program in the nation. This report provides policy makers and planners a better understanding of the potential impacts of Los Angeles Metro’s major rail transit investment program by assessing the changes in transit use of nearby residents and nearby bus service associated with the Expo Line. This is a new Light Rail Transit (LRT) service in Los Angeles County, California that extends south and west from downtown Los Angeles. This study is one of the first that tracks changes in travel behavior before and after the opening of new light rail transit service. Findings suggest two important, and linked, lessons.

1. Changes in bus service that are coincident with the introduction of new light rail transit can negatively affect the overall transit ridership in the corridor. The immediate effect of bus service changes along the Gold Line extension appears to be related to net “bus plus rail” ridership declines in that corridor. The net transit ridership effect along the Expo Line corridor was an increase in ridership, possibly because bus service was not reduced by the same magnitude along the Gold Line extension.

2. Households living near new Expo Line light rail stations reduced their vehicle miles traveled (VMT), but those households living near bus stops that were eliminated increased their VMT. This is not definitive, but it suggests the possibility that bus service is a complement to rail transit service, at least for driving reduction.

The policy implications of this research start with the proposition that transit agencies should think more carefully about bus and rail transit service, particularly when new rail transit is introduced. The researchers suggest that transit agencies take a more holistic view of travel impacts, including driving as well as transit, and that changes to bus service should be carefully crafted not only to maximize use of new rail transit service, but also to facilitate changes in travel behavior consistent with a shift away from auto-mobility.

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I. INTRODUCTION

Los Angeles is pursuing possibly the most ambitious rail transit investment program in the nation. The Los Angeles Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s (Metro) long-range plan commits funds to six new rail transit lines scheduled to open between now and 2019, of which the Expo Line (along Exposition Boulevard) will be the first. In total, those six lines will increase the Los Angeles Metro rail network from 73 to approximately 120 miles (116.8 km to approximately 192 km), making it larger than the current Washington DC Metro system. This impressive commitment to transit infrastructure will play out in the context of ambitious state-level greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, making it important to have useful data regarding the impact of rail transit infrastructure on travel behavior.

This report provides policy makers and planners a better understanding of the potential impacts of Los Angeles Metro’s major rail transit investment program by assessing the changes in transit use of nearby residents and nearby bus service associated with the Expo Line. This is a new Light Rail Transit (LRT) service in Los Angeles County, California that extends south and west from downtown Los Angeles. This report focuses on the first phase of the line’s construction, which opened in two stages in April and June 2012. It runs 8.7 miles (13.9 km) from downtown Los Angeles westward to Culver City, near the junction of the 405 and 10 Freeways. This report has the following research objectives:

• Assessment of Ridership and Service Changes – To examine changes in Metro’s LRT and bus service and ridership associated with the opening of the first phase of the Expo Line in April/June 2012 and the opening of the Gold Line Eastside extension in November 2009

• Assessment of Travel Pattern Changes – To assess potential changes in travel behavior associated with the new Expo Line service and corresponding changes to nearby bus service based on travel survey data collected for 193 households in late 2011 before the line opened and in late 2012 after the line opened

This report is structured as follows – in Chapter 2, review existing literature is reviewed to (a) provide insights from previous evaluations of the impact of LRT on travel behavior and (b) review previous empirical assessments of factors associated with household travel mode choice. Chapter 3 compares service and ridership changes associated with the opening of the Expo and Gold lines. Chapter 4 examines changes in travel patterns associated with the new Expo Line service. The report concludes and presents some policy considerations and identifies avenues for future research in Chapter 5.

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II. FACTORS AFFECTING TRAVEL MODE CHOICE AND THE IMPACT OF LIGHT RAIL TRANSIT ON TRAVEL BEHAVIOR: A REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE

Urban environmental and public health problems associated with dependence on automobiles have led planners and researchers to seek ways to promote alternative travel modes. This section provides a brief overview of the existing literature on travel mode choice, highlighting the theory of planned behavior as a theoretical framework, along with a more detail analysis of “natural experiments” to evaluate the impact of light rail transit on travel behavior.

TRAVEL MODE CHOICE AND THE THEORY OF PLANNED BEHAVIOR

Much of the existing literature on travel mode choice uses an economic, utility-maximizing framework in which individuals select a particular mode that provides the highest preference or utility.1 More recently, researchers have looked beyond objective economic factors, such as time and cost, to include the role of non-objective factors including attitudes, beliefs, and perceptions in travel mode decision-making. The theory of planned behavior (TPB) is a conceptual model of a rational choice process in which situational perceptions are distilled as attitudes that in turn inform an intention to perform a given behavior, such as choice of travel mode.

To identify and assess the role of attitudinal factors in influencing travel mode and residential choices, Hunecke et al. used the TPB to identify groups with sharply differentiated attitudes toward travel modes.2 The results were found to hold promise for targeting pro-transit publicity to distinctive mode preference segments.

Habit plays an important role in mode choice. Verplanken et al. argued that where circumstances are stable, positive attitude toward mode choice is strong, and behavior is repetitive, evaluative faculties become dormant; over time, use of a car may become automatic (habitual) for any destination.3 Taking issue with the idea of habitual travel mode choice behavior, Bamberg argued that the alleged predictive power of past behavior on present behavior is an interpretive fallacy that may simply reflect continuity of circumstances.4 To test the effect of changed circumstances on travel mode behavior, the study centered on the introduction of pre-paid bus passes for university students. Bamberg found that attitudes identified in the first wave did not predict behavior in the second; rather, changes in attitude toward bus use were correlated with increased bus ridership, indicating that evaluative faculties are quickly engaged by new travel options. Similarly, Heath and Gifford found that personal beliefs had little correlation with increased ridership, indicating that environmental factors such as removal of practical and social impediments to behavior may be key aspects of revaluating attitude.5

Researchers are also closely examining the relationship between residential built environments and travel mode behavior. Contending that positive attitudes toward public transit use cannot be assumed where convenient access to transit does not exist, Van Wee et al. used surveys to determine whether travel mode preference data might add

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predictive specificity to forecasts of transit use in particular built environments.6 Results showed that adding mode preference survey information to socio-demographic and land- use data in cases where transit stops or lines were being introduced significantly improved accuracy of ridership forecasts.

EVALUATIONS OF THE IMPACT OF LRT ON TRAVEL BEHAVIOR: THE USE OF “NATURAL EXPERIMENTS”

A challenge of cross-sectional studies is that they are unable to resolve to what extent neighborhood characteristics influence travel mode behavior, or whether residential self- selection follows from pre-existing (travel mode and other) preferences. Recently, several studies have used the introduction of light rail or guided busway service into neighborhoods zoned as opportunities to conduct “natural experiments” examining the before-and-after change in transit usage, controlling for individual and neighborhood-level characteristics. The studies use surveys to collect subjective data concerning individuals’ attitudes toward built environment and travel modes, as well as self-reported travel behavior data. In the following sections, the report provides detailed summaries for several of these natural experiments. While this research study did not focus specifically on health outcomes, as many of these natural experiments do, the investigators believe they provide a comprehensive review of how these experiments are conducted and what outcomes are found.

Before and After a New Light Rail Stop: A Natural Experiment in Salt Lake City

Brown and Werner used the introduction of a new light rail stop (on an existing light rail line) to conduct a natural experiment in a mixed-use, low income Salt Lake City neighborhood.7 Their goal was to examine “whether transit riders are significantly different from non- riders in what they report about their own health, car rides, leisure walks, [and] residential attachment . . . before and after a new light rail stop is added to their neighborhood.”

The study collected data during construction and nine months after the opening of the light rail stop. Surveys were used to record attitudinal data such as preferences for neighborhood types and transit modes, and self-reported travel-mode behavior and physical activity over the prior two weeks, before-and-after.

Surveys tested for four attitudinal composites: place attachment; neighborhood satisfaction; attitude toward suburbs; and favorable attitude toward transit-oriented development. Participants also described their travel behavior, reporting light rail use, pedestrian or bike travel, and automobile usage. The ridership data for the two surveys determined that 45.8% of respondents were continuing transit riders (walking roughly a half-mile [0.8 kilometers] to an existing light rail stop), 22.9% were new (from the opening of the new stop) transit riders, and 31.3% were non-riders.

The authors found that measured differences between study groups were significant and fairly consistent. Rail riders were more active, with “a lower prevalence of obesity” than non- riders; they also had more positive attitudes about neighborhood environment and TOD. With the exception of new riders, the main effect (data for both stages) for time was not significant, showing the new station did not change attitudes and behaviors for continuing

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riders and non-riders. New riders had positive attitudes toward their neighborhoods and TOD prior to the opening of the new stop, but they did not elect to use light rail until the (closer) new stop made transit use convenient. Reported car rides for new riders also declined in stage 2.

The Effect of Light Rail Transit on Body Mass Index and Physical Activity: A Natural Experiment in Charlotte

McDonald et al. focused on the introduction of a light rail line in Charlotte, North Carolina.8 The two-stage longitudinal study intended on one hand to examine cross-sectional associations “among objective and perceived measures of the built environment, physical activity, and obesity,” and, on the other, to take advantage of “a natural experiment of the built environment” (a new light rail line) to assess the effect of transit use on obesity and physical activity levels.

The study used a pre-post intervention, longitudinal design to assess effects of LRT on physical activity and to control for residential location choice. Propensity score matching was used to reduce the effects of choice to use LRT. Telephone surveys at baseline and follow- up focused on perceptions of the physical and social environment of neighborhoods, socio- demographic factors, and self-reported daily travel and exercise patterns. Neighborhood physical and social environment questions focused on participants’ positive or negative perception of neighborhood attributes within a 15-minute walk from their homes, including social order and safety; neighborhood aesthetics and cleanliness; and access to outdoor amenities (parks and commercial recreation facilities). Measures of the built environment included residential density, proximity of recreational parks, and density of food- and beverage-oriented commercial sites within a half-mile (0.8 kilometers) of subjects’ homes, all factors associated with pedestrian activity.

Public transit use at baseline was assessed by asking how often subjects used bus or rail. Regular users were defined as those who used bus or rail at least once a week. To control (in part) for selection bias, a dichotomous indicator was established at baseline for those who planned to use LRT when it opened. During the follow-up, another dichotomous indicator was created for those who reported daily use of LRT for their commute to work, allowing distinction between transit riding (“treatment”) and non-riding (“control”) groups.

Results of the propensity score analysis showed a significant association between LRT use and reduction in body mass index (BMI) over time. LRT users were also found to be 81% less likely to become obese over time. The authors argued that because LRT users and non-users were living in the same neighborhood, with similar commuting patterns (to the central business district [CBD]) and perceptions of neighborhood environments, the findings suggested an independent weight control effect from daily use ofLRT. Extrapolating from average weight loss estimates from the study data to probable daily increases in distances walked (based on estimates of transit commuting options – bus and LRT combinations), the authors suggested that increasing access to LRT transit can help to facilitate “daily utilitarian exercise.”

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Additional Research on Travel Behavior/Transit Ridership

In addition to the studies noted above, in recent years several other studies have commenced to investigate the impacts of light rail transit on travel behavior utilizing a natural experiment approach. These studies include work in Portland on the impacts of the Westside Max LRT line,9 research in Seattle on the before-and-after effects of LRT on physical activity,10 and a joint project between the Texas Transportation Institute and the University of Texas Health Science Center looking at the impacts of the Metropolitan Transit Authority of Harris County’s LRT extension on physical activity and travel behavior of adults in Houston.11 While not quasi-experimental research, some studies have focused only on ridership changes with the introduction of new or improved transit service that are relevant for this current research project, including work by Gomez-Ibanez on the ridership and operating cost for new light rail service in San Diego, Calgary, and Edmonton.12

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III. RIDERSHIP AND SERVICES CHANGES: EXPO LINE VS. GOLD LINE

INTRODUCTION AND SECTION OBJECTIVES

The Los Angeles Metro’s system has experienced significant ridership changes as the Gold Line was extended to East Los Angeles in November 2009 and the Expo Line service began in April/June 2012. These changes were associated with not only growth in rail ridership but also with changes in bus service and ridership. This section compares ridership between the Gold Line and Expo Line systems and documents similar patterns in ridership trends. Both the Gold eastside extension and the Expo Line experienced initial decreases in bus ridership after the light rail service began. However, there are some interesting differences in trends. The Expo Line opening in 2011 resulted in total system ridership increases despite the downturn in bus system ridership, while Gold Line extension in 2009 resulted in an overall ridership decrease despite the considerable increase in Gold Line ridership.

These patterns raise the following questions, which are addressed in this chapter of the report:

• How did the light rail opening/extension affect system-level ridership?

• How was the pattern of bus ridership affected by the light rail service change?

• What are the effects of the network restructure and service change on performance?

To answer these questions, this report analyzes key performance metrics of the transit systems between analogous months before and after the light rail opening at the route level. To conduct this analysis, Metro’s transit data was reviewed for two periods: 2011 to 2012 (EXPO opening April 2012), and 2009 to 2010 (Gold Line extension opening November 2009). In the subsequent subsection, the report provides an overview of the Expo Line and Gold Line, examines how the pattern of bus ridership has been affected by the light rail service opening, reviews the system-level ridership changes after the LRT service began, and examines the route change after beginning of the services. Finally, the report compares demographic attributes of the station areas of the two lines and concludes with a summary of key issues and opportunities to increase ridership.

OVERVIEW OF THE LIGHT RAIL TRANSIT LINES

The Expo Line

The Expo Line is a light rail transit line in the Los Angeles metropolitan area that extends south and west from downtown Los Angeles, reaching downtown Santa Monica upon completion. The line is scheduled for completion in two stages. Phase I, opened in early 2012, runs 8.7 miles (14 km) from downtown Los Angeles westward to Culver City, near the junction of the 405 and 10 Freeways (Figure 1). Service began on the eastern portion of the Phase I section on April 28, 2012, and service was extended to Culver City on

Mineta Transportation Institute Ridership and Services Changes: Expo Line vs. Gold Line 8

June 20, 2012. Phase I of the Expo Line stops at a total of 12 stations, ten of which were newly constructed. It shares track with the Metro Blue Line light rail over 1.2 miles (1.9 km) near downtown Los Angeles (LA), and it also runs on the same route as the Metro Silver rapid bus and other Metro bus lines for 2.7 miles (4.3 km) between the 7th Street/Metro Center station in downtown LA and the Expo Park/USC station. The Expo Line operates from 5 a.m. to 12:30 a.m., with approximate headways of 12 minutes during the day and 20 minutes at other times. The system could run at headways as low as six minutes, depending on demand and system capacity. In addition to downtown LA and Culver City, the Expo Line serves the area south and east of the University of Southern California campus, as well as the neighborhoods of Exposition Park, Leimert Park, Crenshaw, Jefferson Park, Baldwin Hills, and West Adams. Phase II, which will extend the line into downtown Santa Monica, is currently under construction (as of this publication). According to the Exposition Construction Authority, the line is scheduled to be complete in 2015.

Figure 1. Exposition Line Vicinity Map (in blue) Source: Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority, “Metro Expo Line Fact Sheet,” http://media.metro.net/projects_studies/exposition/images/expo_ph1_fact_sheet.pdf (Accessed September 23, 2014).

The Gold Line

The Gold Line is an LRT line that runs from Pasadena to East Los Angeles via downtown Los Angeles, including Little Tokyo, Union Station, and Chinatown. The line began service in 2003 and is operated by the Los Angeles Metro. Phase I opened June 16, 2003 and runs from Union Station in downtown Los Angeles to east Pasadena. The length of route is a 13.7-mile (22 km) stretch of rail that uses a previous Southern Pacific rail line and has 13 stops. In November 2009, Metro opened the second phase of the Gold Line that connects the eight-station Metro Gold Line and links Los Angeles’ Union Station to Atlantic Boulevard near Monterey Park. The extended route serves Little Tokyo, Boyle Heights, and East LA Civic Center (Figure 2).

Mineta Transportation Institute Ridership and Services Changes: Expo Line vs. Gold Line 9

Figure 2. Gold Line Extension Vicinity Map Source: Hatch Mott MacDonald, “Gold Line Extension,” http://www.hatchmott.com/projects/gold-line- extension-ventilation-system (Accessed September 23, 2014).

BUS RIDERSHIP CHANGE AFTER LRT OPENING/EXTENSION

The data for transit ridership analysis comes from the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (Metro) and represents estimated ridership (Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority, n.d.). Metro is the largest bus and urban rail transit provider in the Los Angeles area. Other transit service providers, such as Culver City Bus and Big Blue Bus, also operate in the study area. However, due to limitations of data availability, this analysis of transit ridership relies on Metro data. In this analysis, all ridership records contain the total unlinked passenger trips for every month.

The Expo Line

There are 66 Metro bus lines traversing a one-mile (1.6 km) area around the Expo Line Phase I (which opened April 2012), including four types of Metro services: local, rapid, express, and shuttle buses (Figure 3). Metro local bus services entail frequent stops. Metro local buses currently operate 41 routes across the area. Among these 41 local bus lines, 30 lines run through downtown Los Angeles and connect the CBD area to Beverly Hills, Santa Monica, West LA, and Los Angeles International Airport (LAX)/South Bay area. The other 11 local bus lines offer eastbound-westbound and northbound-southbound services, and they connect the non-CBD area to West Hollywood, Culver City, Inglewood, Norwalk, Athens, South Gate, Hawthorne, etc. Fifteen rapid buses, eight express buses, and two shuttle buses run through the Expo Line area.

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Figure 3. Bus Lines Traversing the Expo Line Area

Figure 4 shows that there has been a change in total ridership since Expo Line service began on April 28, 2012. The ridership of the Expo Line has gradually increased from an average per weekday of approximately 18,000 in July 2012 to 22,000 per weekday during November 2012. The graph shows that the Expo Line contributes to increased overall transit ridership in the area, but ridership fluctuations result from the normal seasonal pattern.

Figure 4. Change in Total Ridership for Bus Lines that Traverse the Expo Line Area (within 1 Mile [1.6 km] of the Expo Line)

Mineta Transportation Institute Ridership and Services Changes: Expo Line vs. Gold Line 11

Table 1 in Appendix A presents detailed ridership data for the bus lines traversing the Expo Line service. Comparing total bus ridership with Expo Line ridership for the months before and after the Expo Line’s opening (July-November 2011, July-November 2012), total transit ridership for bus lines traversing the one-mile vicinity area of the Expo Line increased by approximately 18,800 riders per day, which implies a reduction in bus ridership of approximately 1,600 riders per day.

Four bus lines had the largest changes in ridership after the opening of the Expo Line. These are the 30 and 102, local lines that had an increase in ridership, and the 550 and 740, respectively an express and rapid bus line that had decreases in ridership.

The Gold Line

There are 64 Metro bus lines traversing a one-mile (1.6 km) radius around the Gold Line that was extended in November 2009. Figure 5 shows four types of Metro services: local, rapid, express, and shuttle buses that traverse the Gold Line extension area. Metro local buses currently operate 38 routes across this area. Among these 38 routes, 31 lines run through downtown Los Angeles and connect the CBD to West LA, Santa Monica, Burbank, Sun Valley, etc. The other seven local bus lines serve north-south routes in non-CBD areas, and they connect the East Los Angeles, Compton, Pasadena, and Lynwood areas. Ten express bus lines, three shuttle lines, and 13 rapid lines run through the extension part of Gold Line area.

Figure 5. Bus Lines Traversing the Gold Line Extension Area

Figures 6 and 7 show the change in total bus and total transit ridership in the Gold Line Area before and after the extension. (Table 2 in Appendix A presents detailed ridership data.) Ridership of the Gold Line has gradually increased from an average per weekday of

Mineta Transportation Institute Ridership and Services Changes: Expo Line vs. Gold Line 12 approximately 22,000 in 2009 to 35,000 per weekday in 2010. However, the graph shows that total transit (bus plus rail) ridership in the Gold Line extension corridor decreased despite the increase (35%) in Gold Line ridership. Total transit ridership for lines traversing the area (one-mile buffer of the Gold Line) decreased by approximately 51,800 riders per day, which implies a reduction in bus ridership of about 64,400 riders per day.

Figure 6. Total Bus Ridership Change in Gold Line Area, 2009 Versus 2010

Figure 7. Total Transit Ridership Change in Gold Line Area, 2009 Versus 2010

SYSTEM-WIDE RIDERSHIP TRENDS

Table 1 summarizes the annual ridership of the Metro bus, rail, and total system from 1991 through 2012. During these two decades, Metro built six rail lines, including four light rail lines (Blue, Green, Gold, and Expo Lines) and two subway lines (Red and Purple). The Blue Line opened in July 1990. Following the Blue Line, the Red, Green, and Purple Lines opened during the 1990s. The Gold and Expo Lines opened in 2003 and 2012, respectively.

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Table 1. System-wide Average Weekday Boardings, 1991-2012 Year Bus Rail Total 1991 1,281,630 20,291 1,301,921 1992 1,270,096 34,242 1,304,338 1993 1,169,786 49,047 1,218,833 1994 1,179,619 52,364 1,231,983 1995 1,082,946 58,669 1,141,615 1996 1,048,056 83,505 1,131,561 1997 1,074,040 108,029 1,182,069 1998 1,129,895 114,636 1,244,531 1999 1,074,558 122,753 1,197,311 2000 1,067,778 174,554 1,242,332 2001 1,123,013 211,184 1,334,197 2002 1,147,254 207,668 1,354,922 2003 1,100,281 195,841 1,296,122 2004 1,085,908 217,378 1,303,286 2005 1,141,138 227,703 1,368,841 2006 1,202,888 273,829 1,476,717 2007 1,230,989 277,464 1,508,453 2008 1,153,758 292,344 1,446,102 2009 1,155,000 312,469 1,467,469 2010 1,047,441 302,046 1,349,487 2011 1,110,353 325,930 1,436,283 2012 1,085,223 399,175 1,484,398 ∆ (2012 – 1991) -196,407 (-15.32%) 378,884 (1,867.25%) 182,477 (14.02%)

Figure 8 shows that rail systems have experienced significant ridership growth from 1991 through 2012. Metro’s rail system’s annual ridership increased from just over 20,000 unlinked1 passenger trips in 1991 to almost 400,000 unlinked passenger trips in 2012. Metro’s bus ridership during the same period slightly decreased from about 1.3 million unlinked passenger trips in 1991 to almost 1.1 million unlinked passenger trips in 2012, a decrease of almost 15% (Figure 9). Metro’s total system ridership has increased from just over 1.3 million unlinked passenger trips in 1991 to about 1.5 million unlinked passenger trips in 2010, an increase of about 182,000 riders per day, which implies a reduction in bus ridership of approximately 196,000 riders per day (Figure 10).

1 The available data from LA Metro were on boardings, or unlinked trips. An anonymous reviewer suggested that linked trips might have increased along the rail corridors in ways that unlinked trips did not increase, suggesting that the opening of rail lines made it possible to combine several transit trips into one trip by rail. The research team could not examine that, given the unavailability of linked trip data, but they note that this conjecture is the opposite of what has appeared in the literature. Kain (1990, footnote 4), criticized early planning studies for the Dallas light rail system for using unlinked trips. Kain noted that the evidence at the time suggested that the opening of new light rail created more transfers, and hence would increase unlinked trips more than linked trips, citing evidence that in the early years of Atlanta’s MARTA, total transit

(rail plus bus), unlinked trips increased 47%, while linked transit trips increased only 2.3%. The common assumption in the literature has been that unlinked trips are more favorable to light rail than are linked trips (Kain, 1990).

Mineta Transportation Institute Ridership and Services Changes: Expo Line vs. Gold Line 14

Figure 8. Annual Unlinked Rail Passenger Trips (Average Weekday Boardings), 1991-2012

Figure 9. Annual Unlinked Bus Passenger Trips (Average Weekday Boardings), 1991-2012

Figure 10. System-wide Annual Unlinked Passenger Trips (Average Weekday Boardings), 1992-2012

Mineta Transportation Institute Ridership and Services Changes: Expo Line vs. Gold Line 15

SERVICE LEVEL CHANGE AFTER LRT OPENING/EXTENSION

The Expo Line: June 2011-June 2012

During the periods before and after the Expo Line opened, Metro’s level of bus service on weekdays slightly decreased, but the system-wide service level was almost identical in terms of service frequency. Table 2 presents the system-wide service changes for bus lines. Metro retained almost the same number of runs across all bus lines during morning peak, whereas Metro decreased afternoon peak and owl service vehicles system wide by about 2%. Table 3 shows the service changes for bus lines traversing the Expo Line area (one-mile radius around the line). Metro decreased the number of buses traversing the Expo area at morning and afternoon peak by 2%, while Metro increased the number operated during base time on weekdays by almost 2%. Metro also decreased owl service buses in the same area by 2%. Table 4 presents the change in service level for individual bus lines traversing the one-mile radius area around the Expo Line.

Table 2. System-wide Bus Line Service Change, June 2011-June 2012 DATE AM PEAK BASE PM PEAK OWL Total % % % % % Change Change Change Change Change Runs ’11-‘12 Runs ’11-‘12 Runs ’11-‘12 Runs ’11-‘12 Runs ’11-‘12 June 2011 1847 1008 1940 60 4855 0.1% 0.6% -2.2% -1.7% -0.8% June 2012 1848 1014 1897 59 4818

Table 3. Service Change for Bus Lines Traversing Expo Line Area (within 1 mile of line), June 2011-June 2012 DATE AM PEAK BASE PM PEAK OWL Total % % % % % Change Change Change Change Change Runs ’11-‘12 Runs ’11-‘12 Runs ’11-‘12 Runs ’11-‘12 Runs ’11-‘12 June 2011 1188 647 1223 51 3109 -1.6% 1.9% -2.2% -2.0% -1.1% June 2012 1169 659 1196 50 3074

Table 4. Service Change for Individual Bus Lines Traversing Expo Line Area (within 1 mile of line), June 2011-June 2012 Bus # Number of runs for the route (2011-2012) Ridership Change AM PM Average % DATE PEAK BASE PEAK OWL difference difference # 30 June 2011 15 10 19 2 5,791 44.4% June 2012 23 19 25 2 # 71 June 2011 7 3 3 213 11.5% June 2012 7 3 3 # 83 June 2011 8 6 9 2 -614 -15.2% June 2012 7 5 8 2

Mineta Transportation Institute Ridership and Services Changes: Expo Line vs. Gold Line 16

Bus # Number of runs for the route (2011-2012) Ridership Change AM PM Average % DATE PEAK BASE PEAK OWL difference difference # 102 June 2011 3 3 3 860 52.7% June 2012 6 6 6 # 450 June 2011 7 1 10 212 14.3% June 2012 8 2 10 # 550 June 2011 7 5 9 -1,527 -47.4% June 2012 5 2 5 # 728 June 2011 12 5 13 -715 -10.7% June 2012 15 5 14 # 740 June 2011 17 7 16 -3,760 -48.1% June 2012 12 6 13 # 910 June 2011 22 10 24 2,125 20.6%

The Gold Line: June 2009-June 2010

During the period after the Gold Line opened, bus service frequencies significantly decreased. The system-wide service level decreased almost 5% when compared with the service level in June 2009 and the service level in June 2010 (Table 5). Table 6 shows the service changes of bus lines traversing the Gold Line extension area (one-mile radius around line extension). Overall, Metro decreased the number of buses traversing the Gold Line extension area by 13%. For morning and afternoon peak, Metro decreased the number of vehicles by 13% to 14%, while the number of buses during base time decreased 11%. Table 7 presents the change in service level for individual bus lines traversing the one-mile radius area around the Gold Line extension.

Table 5. System-wide Bus Line Service Change, June 2009-June 2010 DATE AM PEAK BASE PM PEAK OWL Total June 2009 2206 1125 2333 61 5725 -5.4% -6.0% -3.7% -3.3% -4.8% June 2010 2087 1057 2247 59 5450

Table 6. Service Change for Individual Bus Lines Traversing Gold Line Area (within 1 mile of the line), June 2009-June 2010 DATE AM PEAK BASE PM PEAK OWL Total June 2009 1214 636 1285 45 3180 -14.3% -10.8% -13.0% -4.4% -13.0% June 2010 1040 567 1118 43 2768

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Table 7. Service Change for Individual Bus Lines Traversing Gold Line Area (within 1 mile of the line), June 2009-June 2010 Bus # Service change Ridership Change AM PM Average % DATE PEAK BASE PEAK OWL difference difference # 28 June 2009 17 9 19 -1,121 -11.8% June 2010 18 8 20 # 30 June 2009 20 13 24 2 -3,487 -21.2% June 2010 16 10 19 2 # 33 June 2009 47 22 51 5 -11,684 -50.7% June 2010 18 11 20 3 # 66 June 2009 51 14 50 -2,890 -12.4% June 2010 38 14 38 # 70 June 2009 22 15 19 2 -1,740 -12.8% June 2010 16 12 15 2 # 83 June 2009 13 10 15 2 -999 -17.2% June 2010 11 8 12 2 # 94 June 2009 29 9 24 -732 -10.6% June 2010 19 8 18 # 176 June 2009 3 2 3 -189 -15.5% June 2010 3 2 4 # 439 June 2009 8 3 7 143 14.9% June 2010 5 3 7 # 485 June 2009 9 6 10 -465 -15.4% June 2010 9 4 7 # 665 June 2009 3 1 3 -149 -16.2% June 2010 4 1 2 # 687 June 2009 7 5 7 -542 -23.3% June 2010 4 4 5 # 714 June 2009 12 4 12 -643 -16.0% June 2010 12 4 11 # 745 June 2009 23 7 21 -851 -10.4% June 2010 23 7 21 # 753 June 2009 10 6 9 -363 -11.4% June 2010 10 4 9 # 762 June 2009 15 10 17 -684 -11.8% June 2010 10 9 11 # 794 June 2009 17 10 17 -742 -11.6%

Mineta Transportation Institute Ridership and Services Changes: Expo Line vs. Gold Line 18

ROUTE CHANGE AFTER LRT OPENING/EXTENSION

The Expo Line: June 2011-June 2012

After the Expo Line opening, Metro implemented several bus route service changes. The following section discusses the impacts on four separate route changes along the Expo Line.

Figures 11 and 12 depict the changes to local bus Line 30 before and after the Expo Line opening. Metro made some changes to Line 30 after the Expo Line opening, extending the route from West Adams to West Hollywood and increasing the number of vehicles serving Line 30 (Figures 11 and 12). Ridership on Metro local Line 30 has increased nearly 45% since the Expo Line service began.

Figure 11. Bus Route 30 Before Expo Line Opening (June 2011)

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Figure 12. Bus Route 30 After Expo Line Opening (June 2012)

Another bus route with significant service changes after the Expo Line opening is Line 102. The route has been extended from Expo/Western station to Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) with double the number of vehicles serving the line (Figures 13 and 14). Ridership has increased 53% since the Expo Line service began.

Figure 13. Bus Route 102 Before Expo Line Opening (June 2011)

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Figure 14. Bus Route 102 After Expo Line Opening (June 2012)

Metro local Line 550 has lost almost 47% of its ridership after the Expo Line service began. Metro made a route change of Line 550 after the Expo Line opening, eliminating service into West Hollywood (Figures 15 and 16). Metro has also decreased the number of vehicles that serve Line 550.

Figure 15. Bus Route 550 Before Expo Line Opening (June 2011)

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Figure 16. Bus Route 550 After Expo Line Opening (June 2012)

Another bus route with significant changes after the Expo Line opening is Metro local Line 740. This route connects to the Expo Line at Farmdale and no longer serves downtown Los Angeles. Ridership has decreased almost 48% since the Expo Line opened.

Figure 17. Bus Route 740 Before Expo Line Opening (June 2011)

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Figure 18. Bus Route 740 After Expo Line Opening (June 2012)

The Gold: June 2009-June 2010

With the Gold Line extension, Metro made a route change to Line 30, cutting the route west of Indiana station, modifying the route near downtown, and reducing the number of vehicles serving Line 30 (Figures 19 and 20). Ridership along Line 30 decreased 22% after the Gold Line service extension opened.

Figure 19. Bus Route 30 Before Gold Line Extension (June 2009)

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Figure 20. Bus Route 30 After Gold Line Extension (June 2009)

POPULATION DENSITY AND INCOME NEAR LRT

So far, the evidence shows that total transit (bus plus rail) boardings increased slightly after the Expo Line opened but decreased after the Gold Line extension opened. That effect appears to be explained by changes in bus service levels coincident with the opening of both light rail lines. Yet the researchers wanted to rule out the possibility that the characteristics of the neighborhoods traversed by the lines might have been associated with these changes. In particular, do the lines traverse neighborhoods that differ in ways that might be associated with transit ridership? While it is beyond the scope of this study to conduct a detailed statistical analysis of this question, it examined population density and household income along both the Expo and Gold Line extension corridors. Briefly stated, the results find no difference in population density or household income across the two corridors, reinforcing the conclusion that the change in transit boardings was due to changes in bus service coincident with the opening of the light rail lines. Figures 21 and 22 depict the half-mile (0.8 km) radius buffer areas used for this analysis. Tables 8 and 9 present the population and annual household income data for each station along the Gold Line extension and Expo Line, respectively.

The average population of the half-mile radius areas around each Gold Line station was almost 11,000 people. This is only a slightly higher population density than that of the Expo Line area. The average annual household median income of the Gold Line area was approximately $35,000, about $2,000 higher than that of the Expo Line. For the Expo Line station buffer areas, half had annual median household income levels below $30,000 per year. All of these lower income areas are located in the eastern part of the line. The westernmost station, Culver City, has an annual median household income of $67,000. While the income levels for the Expo Line station areas show significant differences

Mineta Transportation Institute Ridership and Services Changes: Expo Line vs. Gold Line 24 between eastern and western areas of the line, annual household income levels for the Gold Line station areas are relatively consistent, ranging between $29,000 and $40,000.

Figure 21. Half-mile (0.8 km) Radius Buffer Areas Along the Gold Line Extension

Figure 22. Half-mile (0.8 km) Radius Buffer Areas Along the Expo Line

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Table 8. Population and Income for Half-mile Radius Buffer Areas Along the Gold Line Extension (2010) Annual Household Station # Station Name Population Median Income ($) 14 Little Tokyo / Arts District 7,658.1 40,304.8 15 Pico / Aliso 6,792.2 32,522.0 16 Mariachi Plaza / Boyle Heights 10,189.6 29,196.7 17 Soto 18,310.6 29,130.7 18 Indiana 14,737.4 40,577.6 19 Maravilla 11,043.3 38,345.8 20 East LA Civic Center 10,629.0 35,856.4 21 Atlantic 8,607.2 36,624.4 Average 10,995.9 35,319.8 Data Source of Population: DEC_10_SF1_P1 (2010 Decennial Census, Summary File 1) Data Source of Household Median Income: ACS_10_5YR_S1903 (2006-2010 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates)

Table 9. Population and Income for Half-mile Radius Buffer Areas Along the Expo Line (2010) Annual Household Station # Station Name Population Median Income ($) 1 Culver City 8,465.4 67,041.0 2 La Cienega / Jefferson 6,354.8 47,433.6 3 Expo / La Brea 11,791.6 35,375.7 4 Farmdale 11,215.7 36,926.5 5 Expo / Crenshaw 8,989.1 43,691.7 6 Expo / Western 15,390.9 36,219.8 7 Expo / Vermont 12,367.5 21,198.6 8 Expo Park / USC 9,597.7 18,626.4 9 Jefferson / USC 10,935.5 20,923.7 10 23rd St 9,374.3 23,168.8 11 Pico 7,487.4 24,753.6 12 Metro Center 11,486.2 21,766.5 Average 10,288.0 33,093.8 Data Source of Population: DEC_10_SF1_P1 (2010 Decennial Census, Summary File 1) Data Source of Household Median Income: ACS_10_5YR_S1903 (2006-2010 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates)

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS FOR RIDERSHIP AND SERVICE CHANGES

The experience along the Expo and Gold Lines differed in ways that can be traced to changes in bus service levels coincident with the opening of light rail transit. After the Gold Line extension opened in 2009, Metro decreased the number of buses along the corridor in the morning and afternoon peak by 14% and 13%, respectively, in addition to an 11% reduction in base (off-peak) buses serving the corridor. These reductions are larger than the reductions in system-wide bus service at the time. In contrast, bus service along

Mineta Transportation Institute Ridership and Services Changes: Expo Line vs. Gold Line 26 the Expo Line corridor was only modestly changes, with the number of buses reduced by approximately 2% in the morning and afternoon peak but with an approximate 2% increase in base service. The researchers hypothesize that those service changes are a factor in the different “bus plus rail” ridership along the two corridors. The opening of the Gold Line extension saw a combined reduction in bus and rail transit ridership, while the increase in rail ridership exceeded the drop in bus ridership along the Expo Line corridor.

Transit agencies typically change bus service coincident with the opening of new rail service, and such changes are appropriate. The lesson here is that the service reductions along the Gold Line extension occurred coincident with a large drop in bus ridership. While this report does not have specific recommendations about alternative routing strategies, it suggests some caution in bus service realignments when light rail transit is introduced.

Mineta Transportation Institute 27

IV. TRAVEL PATTERNS AND CHANGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW EXPO LINE SERVICE

INTRODUCTION AND SECTION OBJECTIVES

This chapter assesses potential changes in travel behavior associated with the new Expo Line service and corresponding changes to nearby bus service based on travel survey data collected for 193 households in late 2011 before the line opened and late 2012 after the line opened.

SURVEY DATA AND METHODS

Data for this study were obtained through a seven-day survey of residents of south Los Angeles, conducted in two phases, one before (September 2011-February 2012) and one after (September 2012-January 2013) the Expo LRT service began in April/June 2012. The study area covers about 12 square miles (19.2 sq km) along the Exposition and Crenshaw corridors in south Los Angeles (Figure 23). The study area’s population was about 9% non-Hispanic white, 41% Hispanic, and 43% African-American. According to 2010 Decennial Census data, about one-fifth of residents lived in households with income below the federal poverty level, about one-third were foreign-born, and about one-quarter had an educational attainment of a bachelor’s degree or higher.

Figure 23. Expo Line Study Area, Approximate Participant Household Locations, and Bus Route Service Changes

Mineta Transportation Institute Travel Patterns and Change Associated with the New Expo Line Service 28

To identify potential participants in the first phase of data collection, the research team purchased a list of all household addresses within the study area (27,275) from a marketing firm, InfoUSA. Invitation letters were mailed to each household, and all households who indicated they were interested in participating (651) were invited into the study. A total of 279 households submitted a complete set of responses for at least one household member age 12 or older for the baseline survey, which included questions about demographics, household composition, and transportation resources, as well as a seven-day travel log, which required each participant to record his or her daily number of trips by travel mode (passenger vehicle, public transit, walking, and cycling) and the number of minutes walking and cycling. The researchers re-contacted the households who participated in the first phase of data collection into the second phase of data collection, which required the participants to complete the same survey protocol. The sample for the current analysis included the 193 households for which complete survey responses were obtained for at least one day in each phase of data collection. Appendix B presents the relevant survey questions and travel log.

Households within 1 kilometer (0.8 mile) network distance of an Expo station were classified into the “experimental” group given the hypothesis that participants living within this distance of the new service would be able to walk to the service and would be more likely to be impacted by its availability. Households farther from this distance were classified as “control” neighborhoods given the hypothesis they were far enough away to be unaffected by the new LRT service. The experiment and control areas generally had similar demographic, land use, and transit service patterns before LRT service began. Participating households were provided a grocery gift as an incentive for completing the survey in each phase. The 1 kilometer (0.8 mile) distance was chosen because it corresponds with a walking time of approximately 15 minutes to a station, and because of previous research that indicates that one-half and three-quarter-mile radius circles produce the best fitting models of residence-based transit catchment areas (Guerra, Cervero, and Tischler 2012).13 However, data obtained for this study in the after-opening period clearly indicates that a 1 kilometer (0.8 mile) catchment area better captures actual train use in the vicinity of Expo Line stations.

The analysis is structured to identify potential differences in travel patterns and transit usage across the experimental households who live within walking distance of the new service and control households who live farther from the new service. In addition, the study assesses potential differences in travel patterns and transit usage based on whether households were near a removed bus route segment (defined as an area within 300 meters of a removed bus route segment but not within 300 meters of an Expo Station).

RESULTS

Study Area, Participant Characteristics, and Bus Service Changes

Figure 23 shows the study area, and the approximate residential location of participating households by experimental and control groups. Experimental households are defined as households within a roadway network distance of 1 kilometer (1.6 mi) of an Expo Line station. Of 193 households in the sample, just under half were Black (46%) and

Mineta Transportation Institute Travel Patterns and Change Associated with the New Expo Line Service 29 over half (55%) had a household annual income under $55,000 (Table 10). Control households included a higher percentage of households with a main respondent who was Black compared to Experimental households (52% vs. 41%), in part because the control areas along Crenshaw Boulevard had a higher composition of Black residents overall. Experimental household had a higher percentage of households who owned their home compared to control households (50% vs. 36%).

The 29 households who were in an area near a removed bus route segment (defined as residing within 300 meters of a removed bus route segment but not within 300 meters of an Expo Station) had a higher composition of Black residents compared with all other survey households (55% vs. 45%), a higher percentage of households who had lived in their homes for 10 or more years (55% vs. 41%), and a higher percentage of home ownership (59% vs. 40%).

Table 10. Descriptive Characteristics of Sample, by Groups (Control/Experimental and Proximity to a Removed Bus Route Segment) Not Near Removed Near Removed All Control Experimental All Bus Route Bus Route Total 193 95 98 193 164 29 Household Composition by Age Household Member 18 years or older 1.70 1.74 1.66 1.70 1.73 1.54 Household Member under 18 years old 0.24 0.27 0.21 0.24 0.23 0.29 Race/Ethnicity of Main Adult Respondent Asian/Asian-American 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.07 Black/African-American 0.46 0.52 0.41 0.46 0.45 0.55 Hispanic/Latino 0.07 0.05 0.09 0.07 0.07 0.07 Other 0.05 0.03 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.07 White/Caucasian 0.28 0.27 0.29 0.28 0.30 0.17 Household Annual Income Under $15,000 0.14 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.17 $15,000-$34,999 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.24 $35,000-$54,999 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.20 0.10 $55,000-$74,999 0.15 0.17 0.12 0.15 0.15 0.14 $75,000 or higher 0.25 0.23 0.27 0.25 0.25 0.24 Housing Tenure Under 5 years 0.36 0.37 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.31 6-10 years 0.16 0.12 0.20 0.16 0.18 0.07 10 or more years 0.43 0.46 0.40 0.43 0.41 0.55 Housing Ownership Own 0.43 0.36 0.50 0.43 0.40 0.59 Rent 0.52 0.58 0.46 0.52 0.55 0.34 Household vehicles (N) 1.35 1.38 1.32 1.35 1.38 1.18

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Travel Change by Phase and Control/Experimental Groups

When examining differences between groups for the Phase I period before the Expo Line began service, mean travel patterns between experimental and control households were not statistically different except for the number of walking trips (Table 11). Experimental households had 0.56 more walking trips than control households. This difference was also significant in Phase II after the Expo Line opened. In addition, in Phase II experimental households have on average 8.7 fewer vehicle miles traveled (13.9 km) compared with control households. Experimental households also had significantly more train trips after the line opened, but overall transit usage was not significantly different between experimental and control groups in Phase II.

Experimental households near the Expo Line reduced their household daily VMT by 6.3 miles (10 km) from Phase I to Phase II, and control households farther from the Expo Line increased their household daily VMT by 3.6 miles (5.8 km) from Phase I to Phase II. This suggests that the new Expo Line service was associated with an overall reduction of VMT for the experimental household of about 10 miles (16 km), and this difference is statistically significant. Experimental households also had a statistically significant increase in train trips, but there was no significant difference across the groups in terms of overall transit usage (bus and train combined).

Travel Change by Phase and Proximity to a Removed Bus Route Segment

Table 12 presents a comparison of the 29 households in the sample who were in an area near a removed bus route segment (defined as residing within 300 meters of a removed bus route segment but not within 300 meters of an Expo Station) with all other sample households. Results indicate that these households had a statistically significant increase in the number of overall household trips and the number of household walking trips from Phase I to Phase II compared with other sample households.

Mineta Transportation Institute Travel Patterns and Change Associated with the New Expo Line Service 31 *

** *

** Sig. Sig.

Diff. 0.11 0.12 0.24 7.37 1.49 0.48 0.77 0.12 0.10 Diff. -9.99 -0.18 -0.06 -0.02 -0.09

0.22 0.23 4.84 1.07 0.01 0.76 -0.02 29 0.18 0.00 0.16 -6.34 -0.17 -0.21 -0.47 Bus Route 98 Near Removed Experimental Phase 1 vs. 2 Difference in Means, Wave 1 vs. Wave 2 1 vs. Wave Wave Difference in Means, 3.64 0.01 0.05 0.06 0.05 -0.19 -0.38 0.10 0.00 95 -2.54 -0.42 -0.50 -0.10 -0.01 Control 164

Bus Route

** ** ** Sig.

Not Near Removed

Sig. 0.70 0.15 0.13 0.68 Diff. -0.21 -0.04 -8.73

Diff. 0.11 1.06 0.24 0.03 0.14 0.76 0.99 7.13 4.15 0.50 0.25 0.76 1.87 96 21.54 7.68 4.45 0.55 0.27 0.81 2.17 Experimental 29 26.77 Phase 2 Means (After) Bus Route Near Removed 6.43 4.36 0.54 0.10 0.63 1.19 97 30.27 Control

Wave 2 Means Wave

6.62 4.22 0.52 0.16 0.67 1.41 ** Sig. 25.78

164 Bus Route 2.97 0.17 0.02 0.56 0.65 0.20 Diff. -0.18 Not Near Removed

Sig. 4.59 0.69 0.07 1.70 7.30 0.76

98 28.82 Diff. -6.39 -0.43 -0.09 -0.01 -0.10 -0.01 -0.24 Experimental Phase 1 Means (Before) 6.61 0.53 0.05 0.58 1.41 4.48 29 21.93 4.77 0.52 0.05 1.14 6.65 0.56 95 25.85 Control Bus Route Near Removed Wave 1 Means Wave 7.04 0.62 0.06 0.68 1.42 4.72 28.32 164 Bus Route Not Near Removed

Travel Patterns and Change by Phase and Control/Experimental and Phase Patterns by Groups Change and Travel Travel Patterns and Change by Phase and Proximity to a Removed Bus Route Segment Route Bus a Removed to Proximity and Phase Patterns by Change and Travel * p < .1. ** p < .05. Denotes the difference in means between the subgroups is significant. * p < .1. ** .05. Denotes the difference in means between the subgroups is significant. * p < .1. ** .05. Denotes the difference

Households (N) VMT Car Trips Bus Trips Trips Train Trips Walking VMT All Trips Bus Trips Trips Train Train) (Bus and Transit Trips Trips Walking Households (N) Car Trips All Trips Trips (Bus and Train) Transit Table 11. Table Significance: 12. Table Significance:

Mineta Transportation Institute Travel Patterns and Change Associated with the New Expo Line Service 32

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS FOR TRAVEL BEHAVIOR CHANGE

Households living within a one-kilometer (1.6-mile) road network distance of a new Expo Line light rail station reduced their driving by almost 10 miles (16 km) per day relative to control group households. This is a substantial driving reduction, and it provides evidence that travel behavior is malleable and that travel habits can change rapidly after the provision of new transportation infrastructure. The report notes, however, that those households near bus stops that were removed ended up driving more – almost 5 miles (8 km) per day more. This may not be surprising. Possibly those households either drove to park-and-ride bus or rail stations after a nearby bus stop was removed, or they may have substituted car trips for bus trips. Yet this is a caution that changes in bus service can influence the effectiveness of new rail transit, possibly in unexpected ways. Eliminating bus stops not only attenuates the VMT reduction observed in experimental households who lived within one kilometer of new light rail stations, it also reverses the effect.

Mineta Transportation Institute 33

V. CONCLUSION AND POLICY CONSIDERATIONS

This study is one of the first that tracks changes in travel behavior before and after the opening of new light rail transit service. It combines the results of a detailed household travel survey along the Expo Line in Los Angeles with aggregate bus and rail ridership data along corridors for the two most recently opened light rail lines in the city – the Expo Line and the Gold Line extension. The results give two important, and linked, lessons.

2. Households living near new Expo Line light rail stations reduced their VMT, but those households living near bus stops that were eliminated increased their VMT. This is not definitive, but it suggests the possibility that bus service is a complement to rail transit service, at least for driving reduction.

The policy implications of this research start with the proposition that transit agencies should think more carefully about bus and rail transit service, particularly when new rail transit is introduced. Light rail runs along the street, often along heavily traveled bus routes, and it is natural to eliminate some bus routes to optimize the system after new light rail service commences. This study does not argue against that, but based on its results, the study suggests some caution. The changes in bus service, on net, can be consistent with increases in transit ridership (as in the Expo Line corridor) or decreases in transit ridership (as in the Gold Line corridor). More importantly, system optimization might extend to a full range of travel behavior. If driving behavior is considered, eliminating bus stops (or possibly other reductions in service) may be less attractive, based on the increases in driving among households near eliminated bus stops in the Expo Line study area. This study suggests that transit agencies take a more holistic view of travel impacts, including driving as well as transit, and that changes to bus service should be carefully crafted to maximize use of not only new rail transit service but also to facilitate changes in travel behavior that are consistent with a shift away from auto-mobility.

The results of this study point to two different, but related, effects. Changes in bus service can have negative or positive effects on system ridership, and agencies should take care when introducing light rail or any service that prompts system-wide reconfigurations of existing service. Changes in service, particularly those associated with new light rail, can change travel behavior. How might agencies best combine these two insights?

The study argues that future research should be alert to informing this question. First, transit agencies and researchers should be more alert to before-and-after evaluations of new service. The insights from this study can stand as an example of the importance of such before-and-after evaluations. Along those lines, the research team suggests that transit agencies can easily implement some of these studies, including comparisons of

Mineta Transportation Institute Conclusion and Policy Considerations 34 boardings before and after the introduction of new service, and they suggest that such studies become a standard part of agency operations. That would include reporting the results to the public, which is possible on web pages. Second, the large reductions in VMT observed after the opening of the Expo Line suggest several possibilities in travel behavior research. The research team has an incomplete view of how travelers interact with new technologies that provide real-time information about the network, use social media to encourage travel change, and can now promote mobility services of the type that are rapidly gaining a foothold in the market (e.g., shared rides, bicycle sharing, or the like). Future research might examine how new infrastructure interacts with information and with innovative mobility services, and whether such interactions provide ways to obtain even more leverage from rail transit investments.

Overall, the results of this research suggest that travel behavior may change more rapidly and more substantially than many people likely previously thought. This report suggests that future research deepen that insight by examining the conditions under which new light rail can most effectively achieve broader transportation goals.

Mineta Transportation Institute Appendix A: Detailed Ridership Data for Expo and Gold Lines 35 (%) 0.6% 1.2% 0.5% 1.2% 3.3% 6.0% 2.1% 3.0% 1.0% 8.2% 9.1% 8.0% 2.9% 0.9% 3.2% 3.9% -3.3% -2.6% -6.5% -4.2% -5.0% -2.1% -3.4% -3.8% -4.7% -0.6% -4.8% 11.5% 44.4% -15.2% Difference 60 96 -98 124 204 243 686 759 603 427 656 589 128 341 213 107 163 777 -880 -653 -829 -944 -192 -196 -253 -614 -515 -924 5,791 -1,222 Average Average Difference 9,824 8,621 9,082 7,070 5,610 6,328 1,734 3,435 2,065 5,215 2012 20,951 25,417 24,370 17,423 13,031 19,945 21,768 18,849 13,315 12,025 23,443 21,352 28,862 14,454 10,448 12,090 16,528 18,516 12,605 20,910 Jul-Nov 9,728 7,965 9,274 6,481 5,806 6,581 1,607 4,049 1,852 5,052 2011 11,749 20,826 26,298 25,023 17,219 12,971 19,702 21,082 13,058 12,557 12,854 24,665 22,297 28,258 14,028 10,962 16,626 19,440 12,498 20,133 Jul-Nov 2,113 5,113 9,759 8,371 8,963 7,084 5,597 6,142 1,533 3,306 20,498 25,089 23,996 16,654 12,890 19,345 21,036 18,337 12,874 12,004 22,728 21,126 28,743 14,339 10,174 12,053 16,543 17,812 12,229 20,767 Nov-12 7,589 5,747 6,492 1,690 8,834 9,593 3,581 2,284 5,380 26,082 24,827 17,791 22,376 13,959 22,254 20,779 12,932 24,010 30,080 15,300 10,657 19,377 13,686 22,207 12,515 17,276 10,690 13,064 18,782 21,610 Oct-12 7,791 5,714 6,545 1,743 8,793 9,565 3,514 2,128 5,339 25,995 24,821 17,773 22,244 13,919 22,388 20,515 12,877 24,408 29,517 15,122 10,682 19,317 13,727 22,026 12,425 17,336 10,740 12,916 18,828 21,163 Sep-12 9,520 6,478 5,525 6,242 2,030 8,571 8,730 3,406 1,959 5,189 11,655 11,767 16,112 25,506 24,554 17,684 20,595 12,924 22,200 19,838 23,521 28,459 14,102 18,703 13,546 21,107 10,206 12,443 18,765 20,918 Aug-12 8,535 8,501 6,406 5,468 6,221 1,676 8,559 3,368 1,839 5,056 11,463 18,511 11,690 24,415 23,654 17,215 19,040 20,963 19,249 10,655 22,546 27,509 13,408 12,744 20,296 15,374 10,429 12,371 18,394 20,093 Jul-12 7,942 9,934 6,626 5,916 6,522 1,516 9,360 3,996 2,010 5,076 11,710 26,924 24,901 16,792 21,458 13,295 21,315 19,523 13,279 25,126 28,639 14,338 19,992 12,868 12,586 22,366 16,757 10,963 12,443 19,246 Nov-11 8,047 6,772 5,827 6,553 1,628 9,524 4,107 2,037 5,103 22,112 11,885 11,078 27,103 25,528 17,409 13,868 21,645 20,380 10,308 13,441 25,254 28,905 14,536 20,252 13,048 12,700 22,641 17,161 12,606 19,442 Oct-11 8,148 6,982 5,855 6,669 1,651 9,691 4,189 1,879 5,190 12,113 11,231 26,739 25,695 17,558 21,919 13,914 21,573 20,324 10,270 13,627 25,133 29,068 14,623 20,749 13,237 12,906 22,901 17,357 12,731 19,516 Sep-11 6,113 7,784 9,034 5,661 6,517 1,607 8,612 3,918 1,670 5,041 11,785 11,872 11,465 10,711 25,214 24,314 17,177 19,476 20,294 18,868 23,790 27,606 13,299 19,864 13,090 12,173 21,668 15,987 12,341 19,314 Aug-11 APPENDIX A: DETAILED RIDERSHIP DATA FOR EXPO AND GOLD LINES FOR EXPO DATA RIDERSHIP A: DETAILED APPENDIX 5,911 7,902 9,094 5,771 6,644 1,631 9,182 4,034 1,663 4,851 11,994 11,573 25,509 24,678 17,161 19,166 20,582 19,417 12,050 24,022 27,074 13,342 19,809 13,045 12,418 21,908 15,870 10,829 12,368 19,684 Jul-11 Ridership Data for Bus Lines Traversing the Expo Line Area (within 1 mile of the of the 1 mile line) Expo Area (within Line Traversing Ridership DataLines for Bus

16 18 20 28 14 4 10 2 35 40 51 53 55 60 30 33 45 90 92 94 96 84 78 81 83 76 70 71 66 62 Line # Local through CBD Table 13. Table Mineta Transportation Institute Appendix A: Detailed Ridership Data for Expo and Gold Lines 36 (%) 3.1% 1.2% 9.8% 7.2% 3.4% 6.0% 0.9% 8.6% 5.4% 9.4% 6.3% 8.2% -1.4% -5.0% -1.0% 52.7% 30.8% 14.3% -47.4% Difference 95 15 34 23 14 -31 478 161 860 887 231 212 274 762 950 -397 1,139 -1,202 -1,527 Average Average Difference 65 291 268 1,065 2,492 1,695 7,042 2,971 1,690 4,844 4,051 8,872 2012 15,745 27,762 13,681 22,619 13,217 15,984 14,955 Jul-Nov 49 969 268 445 254 6,811 1,632 3,221 3,003 1,478 4,570 4,017 2,675 8,109 2011 15,267 28,159 13,520 23,821 12,331 15,033 13,816 Jul-Nov 66 273 281 1,044 2,532 1,655 6,764 2,873 1,723 4,637 3,982 8,699 15,405 26,899 13,289 21,761 13,032 15,967 14,645 Nov-12 67 307 283 1,173 2,605 7,279 1,747 3,032 4,437 1,771 4,896 9,160 28,949 14,057 23,252 16,063 13,725 15,402 16,942 Oct-12 75 295 274 1,177 2,609 7,435 1,789 3,094 4,198 1,704 4,950 9,066 29,287 14,341 23,738 16,235 13,569 15,492 16,840 Sep-12 52 301 252 1,034 2,442 7,330 1,664 3,005 3,798 1,618 4,874 8,889 27,904 13,767 22,855 15,852 13,265 14,935 15,398 Aug-12 63 895 280 249 2,274 6,403 1,618 2,853 3,840 1,635 4,862 8,545 25,772 12,951 21,491 15,170 12,496 14,303 14,772 Jul-12 61 264 429 256 7,111 1,033 1,579 3,190 2,908 4,092 1,545 4,432 2,775 8,022 28,810 13,688 23,455 14,897 15,231 12,850 14,125 Nov-11 51 252 453 277 1,049 1,685 6,921 3,289 2,975 4,285 1,567 4,528 2,651 7,994 29,259 14,149 24,093 15,404 15,752 12,557 14,395 Oct-11 50 268 269 470 3,114 1,040 1,752 7,014 3,316 4,103 1,495 4,620 2,762 8,336 29,340 14,083 24,847 15,931 15,714 12,746 14,181 Sep-11 43 875 241 267 443 1,590 6,455 3,136 3,015 3,779 1,396 4,683 2,580 8,132 11,833 26,616 12,738 22,945 14,359 14,846 13,249 Aug-11 42 850 228 289 428 1,556 6,555 3,176 3,825 3,002 1,389 4,586 2,606 8,063 11,668 26,770 12,940 23,766 14,576 14,790 13,132 Jul-11 204 206 207 210 200 209 102 105 607 603 550 487 534 450 460 305 442 220 439 212 217 Line # Local through non- CBD Shuttle Limited Ex - press

Mineta Transportation Institute Appendix A: Detailed Ridership Data for Expo and Gold Lines 37 (%) 2.0% 7.7% 3.3% 3.5% 4.8% 2.5% -4.5% -3.1% -3.1% -0.2% -8.6% -0.7% -0.1% 20.6% -48.1% -10.7% Difference -64 -23 816 584 170 362 631 -315 -404 -715 -248 -574 2,125 -3,760 -1,592 18,820 Average Average Difference 4,065 6,757 5,968 7,841 8,186 5,391 6,076 8,850 2012 12,469 41,982 12,426 10,706 21,356 13,914 Jul-Nov 750,583 770,996 7,825 7,072 6,683 4,684 8,089 7,602 5,220 6,649 8,913 2011 12,874 41,166 10,301 10,344 21,379 13,283 Jul-Nov 752,175 752,175 4,175 6,736 6,009 7,892 8,428 5,480 5,978 8,836 11,785 40,014 13,515 22,066 10,495 21,108 13,829 Nov-12 737,025 759,091 7,080 4,368 6,236 8,873 8,241 5,598 9,292 6,198 11,425 12,885 42,108 13,765 21,382 14,861 22,468 Oct-12 779,989 801,371 6,923 4,270 6,102 8,846 8,099 5,421 9,188 6,304 11,266 12,861 42,728 12,197 20,656 14,497 22,263 Sep-12 777,004 797,660 6,615 3,868 5,771 7,605 7,626 5,334 8,405 6,082 11,449 12,730 42,819 19,776 10,246 13,486 20,890 Aug-12 744,416 764,192 6,430 3,643 5,724 7,179 7,347 5,120 8,527 5,816 11,206 12,085 42,240 18,181 10,100 12,897 20,049 Jul-12 714,483 732,664 7,172 7,894 4,673 6,551 7,905 8,208 5,144 8,982 6,589 40,115 12,507 10,648 10,614 13,754 21,793 Nov-11 756,721 756,721 7,302 8,073 4,644 6,723 8,044 8,418 5,462 9,037 6,723 11,234 12,975 41,098 10,881 13,700 22,271 Oct-11 771,071 771,071 7,316 8,097 4,800 6,833 8,155 8,519 5,438 9,207 6,855 13,146 41,800 10,414 10,837 13,702 22,390 Sep-11 776,398 776,398 6,727 7,541 4,606 6,563 6,930 7,741 9,730 5,105 8,554 9,534 6,594 12,621 41,215 12,730 20,137 Aug-11 725,814 725,814 6,843 7,520 4,695 6,747 6,977 7,561 9,480 4,953 8,786 9,854 6,486 13,119 20,304 41,601 12,527 Jul-11 730,872 730,872 745 754 740 730 728 733 710 720 705 910 806 794 770 780 757 760 Line # Buses Rapid EXPO Total

Mineta Transportation Institute Appendix A: Detailed Ridership Data for Expo and Gold Lines 38 (%) 8.5% 3.9% 0.6% 0.1% 1.8% 0.0% -9.1% -6.7% -3.4% -5.6% -7.3% -1.7% -1.2% -5.3% -7.9% -2.6% -0.6% -9.2% -8.1% -8.6% -2.0% -4.8% -8.0% -5.2% -11.9% -12.2% -10.6% -21.5% -50.6% -12.4% -17.2% Difference 6 11 91 -37 371 132 326 -411 -734 -852 -613 -280 -782 -189 -138 -912 -995 -757 -161 -341 -929 -1,163 -3,555 -2,790 -1,679 -2,040 -1,709 -1,176 -1,287 -2,177 -11,695 Average Average Difference 6,110 8,366 4,743 6,166 2,399 8,467 5,708 4,672 9,944 4,801 8,832 5,801 2010 11,441 11,903 11,426 13,005 20,583 17,357 21,266 10,728 18,001 10,605 16,385 20,191 19,317 12,491 16,903 25,623 25,054 16,832 27,964 Jul-Oct 6,118 4,372 6,899 2,308 9,320 4,951 5,795 9,589 6,271 5,838 9,529 2009 11,564 16,560 23,374 10,726 23,136 17,970 21,134 10,721 17,675 13,581 10,793 17,297 22,230 21,026 13,667 17,244 26,910 27,231 17,760 27,953 Jul-Oct 4,724 6,108 2,455 9,085 5,887 4,813 4,862 9,100 6,225 5,764 8,656 11,396 17,115 11,693 11,345 12,913 20,429 10,340 21,530 10,914 17,649 10,708 16,816 20,654 19,313 13,060 17,322 26,248 25,192 17,036 28,167 Oct-10 4,874 6,314 2,501 9,008 6,092 4,755 4,952 9,121 6,579 5,890 8,317 10,411 11,430 11,777 13,042 20,617 17,722 21,883 10,970 18,163 12,215 10,884 16,903 20,348 19,548 13,302 17,561 26,101 25,590 16,812 28,450 Sep-10 4,727 6,105 2,307 9,538 7,857 5,393 4,529 4,618 8,329 5,753 5,767 8,092 11,299 11,781 11,241 11,666 12,843 20,518 17,038 20,728 10,423 18,094 10,387 15,859 20,105 19,031 16,251 24,974 24,581 16,689 27,495 Aug-10 4,647 6,135 2,334 9,487 7,919 5,459 4,589 4,770 8,777 5,883 5,783 8,400 11,637 11,922 11,341 11,934 13,221 20,769 17,551 20,922 10,603 18,096 10,439 15,961 19,656 19,375 16,477 25,169 24,853 16,789 27,744 Jul-10 4,472 2,098 6,476 5,122 5,965 9,834 6,496 5,989 6,924 9,520 11,454 10,011 11,589 16,202 23,489 22,922 18,449 21,351 10,922 17,767 13,743 10,894 17,742 22,626 21,418 14,387 18,285 27,485 27,740 17,794 28,777 Oct-09 9,911 4,404 2,339 6,460 5,120 5,958 6,541 5,966 6,987 9,545 11,226 11,265 11,047 11,806 16,574 23,489 23,475 18,409 21,751 17,704 13,916 17,815 10,181 22,595 21,651 14,567 18,158 27,332 27,869 18,128 28,363 Sep-09 9,119 6,011 4,367 2,389 8,503 5,758 4,703 9,827 5,548 5,720 6,849 9,581 11,402 26,311 16,565 23,285 22,931 17,344 20,594 10,348 17,585 13,365 10,553 16,727 21,620 20,404 12,810 16,187 26,533 17,550 27,259 Aug-09 4,244 2,407 8,853 5,779 4,859 5,710 9,222 6,034 5,675 6,837 9,470 11,457 26,511 16,898 23,231 23,214 17,677 20,841 10,389 10,358 17,642 13,301 10,679 16,903 22,080 20,630 12,902 16,346 26,783 17,569 27,413 Jul-09 Ridership Data for Bus Lines Traversing the Gold Line Area (within 1 mile of the of 1 mile line) theArea (within Gold Line Traversing Ridership DataLines for Bus 2 4 30 66 96 33 35 38 40 42 45 53 55 60 62 70 76 78 81 83 84 90 92 94 10 14 16 18 20 26 28

Line # Local through CBD Table 14. Table

Mineta Transportation Institute Appendix A: Detailed Ridership Data for Expo and Gold Lines 39 (%) 1.2% 2.0% 3.2% 7.3% -7.7% -2.8% -5.1% -0.9% -8.2% -6.1% 10.6% 15.3% -10.5% -16.6% -13.8% -15.5% Difference -6 50 15 71 -27 378 133 148 -142 -502 -308 -347 -139 -518 -136 -103 -3,010 -4,214 -7,324 -6,010 Average Average Difference 219 724 755 741 1,114 1,207 4,347 2,517 3,685 2,176 9,620 2,944 1,528 1,589 1,958 2010 12,221 Jul-Oct 225 710 894 670 966 1,349 4,297 3,019 3,010 4,214 7,324 3,992 6,010 2,523 2,970 1,664 1,692 1,825 2009 11,843 10,139 Jul-Oct

237 740 844 763 1,228 4,172 2,810 3,869 2,378 9,378 3,210 1,658 1,626 1,923 1,105 12,629 Oct-10

219 709 791 759 1,226 4,323 2,541 3,856 2,376 9,781 3,025 1,667 1,689 2,008 1,144 12,951 Sep-10

716 674 715 214 1,173 4,375 2,270 3,461 1,950 9,691 2,817 1,359 1,542 1,926 1,095 11,616 Aug-10

711 731 725 205 1,111 1,200 4,516 2,447 3,553 1,998 9,631 2,722 1,426 1,499 1,976 11,688 Jul-10 774 691 242 1,380 4,171 3,283 4,386 4,185 2,533 7,884 6,517 3,024 1,025 3,231 1,735 1,730 1,900 1,006 10,123 12,185 Oct-09 761 949 727 240 971 1,361 4,367 3,042 4,324 4,179 2,847 7,415 6,283 3,026 3,274 2,038 1,776 1,875 10,294 12,475 Sep-09 657 789 662 209 972 1,339 4,412 2,818 4,023 3,743 2,371 7,021 5,690 3,008 2,590 1,384 1,651 1,751 11,264 10,064 Aug-09 646 813 599 209 914 1,314 4,238 2,931 4,122 3,862 2,339 6,975 5,548 2,982 2,786 1,497 1,612 1,775 11,447 10,073 Jul-09 445 460 485 446 487 605 620 484 490 444 665 251 252 254 256 258 260 287 442 439 Line # Shuttle Local through non- CBD Limited Express

Mineta Transportation Institute Appendix A: Detailed Ridership Data for Expo and Gold Lines 40 (%) 0.4% -6.0% -1.9% -1.2% -5.4% -6.1% -8.0% -7.9% -0.4% 56.8% -11.4% -10.2% -10.6% -15.8% -10.1% -10.5% Difference 39 -26 -655 -584 -236 -670 -631 -449 -465 -314 -752 -853 -324 12,646 -64,370 -51,724 Average Average Difference 8,730 5,081 9,080 5,667 3,369 8,154 4,829 8,626 7,261 6,195 2,845 2010 12,465 37,622 34,905 Jul-Oct 570,341 605,246 8,114 8,691 5,735 9,664 6,336 4,000 8,619 5,143 9,378 6,220 3,169 2009 12,701 38,071 22,260 Jul-Oct 634,711 656,970 8,619 5,274 9,188 5,643 3,541 8,323 5,031 8,640 7,422 6,068 2,840 12,798 36,898 34,440 Oct-10 576,374 610,814 8,831 5,447 9,344 5,829 3,502 8,267 4,914 8,890 7,523 6,395 2,820 12,818 38,003 35,649 Sep-10 583,780 619,429 8,754 4,647 8,718 5,676 3,224 7,900 4,558 8,404 6,974 6,060 2,844 12,071 37,798 35,247 Aug-10 557,240 592,487 8,716 4,954 9,068 5,518 3,207 8,124 4,814 8,570 7,126 6,256 2,877 12,171 37,787 34,285 Jul-10 563,969 598,254 8,611 8,764 6,165 6,442 4,197 5,262 9,705 8,288 6,335 3,320 10,153 12,628 37,141 21,322 Oct-09 646,959 668,281 8,952 6,257 6,432 4,206 8,873 5,458 9,656 8,229 6,350 3,166 13,311 10,134 38,370 22,476 Sep-09 652,170 674,646 8,536 5,251 9,151 6,387 3,729 8,562 4,900 9,039 8,003 6,229 3,042 12,384 38,367 24,175 Aug-09 617,746 641,921 9,110 8,513 5,267 9,217 6,084 3,866 8,428 4,951 7,935 5,967 3,149 12,479 38,405 21,065 Jul-09 621,967 643,032

760 762 770 704 794 714 720 804 728 730 740 745 751 753 Line # Rapid GOLD Buses Total

Mineta Transportation Institute 41

APPENDIX B: SURVEY QUESTIONS AND TRAVEL LOG

Information About Your Household

How long have you lived in your current home? □ less than 1 year □ 1 to 5 years □ 6 to 10 years □ more than 10 years □ all of my life

Do you own or rent your residence? □ Own □ Rent □ Don’t know □ Other. If other, please describe:______

What is your average annual household income? □ Less than $15,000 □ $15,001 to $35,000 □ $35,001 to $55,000 □ $55,001 to $75,000 □ $75,001 to $100,000 □ More than $100,000

What is your race or ethnicity? □ Asian/Pacific Islander □ Black/African-American □ White/Caucasian □ Hispanic □ Native American/Alaska Native □ Other/Multi-Racial

Mineta Transportation Institute Appendix B: Survey Questions and Travel Log 42

Individual Demographic Survey and 7-Day Travel Log Please enter the following information for the person whose trips are recorded on this log.

First Name: ______

What is this person’s gender? □ Male □ Female

How old is this person? ______years

Is this person employed? □ No □ Yes, part time □ Yes, full time

Is this person a student? □ No. □ Yes, in a college or university. □ Yes, in high school. □ Yes, in another type of school.

If they are a student, do they attend school full time or part time? □ Part time □ Full time

What is the highest level of education this person has completed? □ 12th grade or less □ Graduated high school or equivalent □ Some college, no degree □ Associate degree □ Bachelor’s degree □ Post-graduate degree

Mineta Transportation Institute Appendix B: Survey Questions and Travel Log 43

Trip Log

Mineta Transportation Institute Appendix B: Survey Questions and Travel Log 44

Vehicle Mileage Log

Mineta Transportation Institute 45

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

BMI Body Mass Index CBD Central Business District km kilometer LA Los Angeles LAX Los Angeles International Airport LRT Light Rail Transit MARTA Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority TOD Transit-oriented Development TPB Theory of Planned Behavior VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled

Mineta Transportation Institute 46

ENDNOTES

1. Daniel McFadden. “Quantitative Methods for Analyzing Travel Behavior of Individuals: Some Recent Developments.” In Behavioral Travel Modelling (D. Hensher, and P. Stopher, Eds.), London: Croom Helm (1979).

2. M. Hunecke, S. Haustein, S. Bӧhler, and S. Grischkat. “Attitude-based Target Groups to Reduce the Ecological Impact of Daily Mobility Behavior.” Environment and Behavior 42 (2010): 3-43.

3. B. Verplanken, H. Aarts, A. Van Knippenberg, and C. Van Knippenberg. “Attitude Versus General Habit: Antecedents of Travel Mode Choice.” Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 24 (1994): 285-300.

4. S. Bamberg, I. Ajzen, and P. Schmidt. “Choice of Travel Modes in the Theory of Planned Behavior: The Roles of Past Behavior, Habit, and Reasoned Action.” Basic and Applied Social Psychology 25, no. 3 (2003): 175-187.

5. Y. Heath and R. Gifford. “Extending the Theory of Planned Behavior: Predicting the Use of Public Transportation.” Journal of Applied Social Psychology 32 (2002): 2154- 2189.

6. B. Van Wee, H. Holwerda, and R. Van Baren. “Preferences for Modes, Residential Location and Travel Behavior: The Relevance for Land-use Impacts on Mobility.” European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research 2 (2002): 305-316.

7. B. Brown, and C. Werner. “Before and After a New Light Rail Stop: Resident Attitudes, Travel Behavior, and Obesity.” Journal of the American Planning Association 75, no. 1 (2008): 5-12.

8. J.M. MacDonald, R.J. Stokes, D.A. Cohen, A. Kofmer, and G.K. Ridgeway. “The Effect of Light Rail Transit on Body Mass Index and Physical Activity.” American Journal of Preventative Medicine 39, no. 2 (2010): 105-112.

9. Reid Ewing, Shima Hamidi, J.P. Goates, and Arthur C. Nelson. “Direct and Indirect Impacts of Light Rail Transit on VMT in Portland, OR: A Longitudinal Analysis.” (Paper presented at the TRB 93rd Annual Meeting, Washington D.C., January 12-14, 2014).

10. Brian E. Saelens. “Physical Activity and Neighborhood Built Environment: Methods and State of the Science.” (Paper presented at the American Academic of Health Behavior Conference, Charleston, SC, March 16-19, 2014).

11. TTI and UTHealth Join Forces on 5-Year Transportation and Health Study Granted by NIH, press release (Houston, TX: Texas Transportation Institute, Nov. 25, 2013).

Mineta Transportation Institute Endnotes 47

12. Jose A. Gomez-Ibanez. “A Dark Side to Light Rail? The Experience of Three New Transit Systems.” Journal of the American Planning Association, 51, no. 3 (1985): 337-351.

13. Erick Guerra, Robert Cervero, and Daniel Tischler. “Half-Mile Circle: Does It Best Represent Transit Station Catchments?” Transportation Research Record 2276 (2012): 101-109.

Mineta Transportation Institute 48

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Bamberg, S., I. Ajzen, and P. Schmidt, “Choice of Travel Modes in the Theory of Planned Behavior: The Roles of Past Behavior, Habit, and Reasoned Action.” Basic and Applied Social Psychology 25, no. 3 (2003): 175-187.

Brown, B. and C. Werner, “Before and After a New Light Rail Stop: Resident Attitudes, Travel Behavior, and Obesity.” Journal of the American Planning Association 75, no. 1 (2008): 5-12.

Ewing, Reid, Shima Hamidi, J.P. Goates, and Arthur C. Nelson, “Direct and Indirect Impacts of Light Rail Transit on VMT in Portland, OR: A Longitudinal Analysis.” Paper presented at the TRB 93rd Annual Meeting, Washington D.C., January 12- 14, 2014.

Gomez-Ibanez, Jose A, “A Dark Side to Light Rail? The Experience of Three New Transit Systems.” Journal of the American Planning Association, 51, no. 3 (1985): 337- 351.

Guerra, Erick, Robert Cervero, and Daniel Tischler, “Half-Mile Circle: Does It Best Represent Transit Station Catchments?” Transportation Research Record 2276 (2012): 101-109.

Hatch Mott MacDonald, “Gold Line Extension.” http://www.hatchmott.com/projects/gold- line-extension-ventilation-system (Accessed September 23, 2014).

Heath, Y., and R. Gifford, “Extending the Theory of Planned Behavior: Predicting the Use of Public Transportation.” Journal of Applied Social Psychology 32 (2002): 2154- 2189.

Hunecke, M., S. Haustein, S. Bӧhler, and S. Grischkat, “Attitude-based Target Groups to Reduce the Ecological Impact of Daily Mobility Behavior.” Environment and Behavior 42 (2010): 3-43.

Kain, John F, “Deception in Dallas: Strategic Misrepresentation in Rail Transit Promotion and Evaluation.” Journal of the American Planning Association 56, no. 2 (1990): 184-196.

Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority, “Maps & Timetables.” http:// www.metro.net/riding/maps/ (Accessed December 1, 2012).

Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority, “Metro Expo Line Fact Sheet.” http://media.metro.net/projects_studies/exposition/images/expo_ph1_fact_sheet. pdf (Accessed September 23, 2014).

Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority, “Metro Ridership.” http://isotp. metro.net/MetroRidership/IndexSys.aspx (Accessed December 1, 2012).

Mineta Transportation Institute Bibliography 49

MacDonald, J.M., R.J. Stokes, D.A. Cohen, A. Kofmer, and G.K. Ridgeway, “The Effect of Light Rail Transit on Body Mass Index and Physical Activity.” American Journal of Preventative Medicine 39, no. 2 (2010): 105-112.

McFadden, Daniel, “Quantitative Methods for Analyzing Travel Behavior of Individuals: Some Recent Developments.” In Behavioral Travel Modelling (D. Hensher, and P. Stopher, Eds.), London: Croom Helm (1979).

Saelens, Brian E, “Physical Activity and Neighborhood Built Environment: Methods and State of the Science.” Paper presented at the American Academic of Health Behavior Conference, Charleston, SC, March 16-19, 2014.

TTI and UTHealth Join Forces on 5-Year Transportation and Health Study Granted by NIH. Press release. Texas Transportation Institute, Houston, TX, Nov. 25, 2013.

Van Wee, B., H. Holwerda, and R. Van Baren, “Preferences for Modes, Residential Location and Travel Behavior: The Relevance for Land-use Impacts on Mobility.” European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research 2 (2002): 305-316.

Verplanken, B., H. Aarts, A. Van Knippenberg, and C. Van Knippenberg, “Attitude Versus General Habit: Antecedents of Travel Mode Choice.” Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 24 (1994): 285-300.

Mineta Transportation Institute 50

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

HILARY NIXON, PhD

Dr. Nixon is an Associate Professor of Urban and Regional Planning at San José State University. Her research and teaching interests in environmental planning and policy focus on the relationship between environmental attitudes and behavior, particularly with respect to waste management and linkages between transportation and the environment. She holds a BA from the University of Rochester in Environmental Management and a PhD in Planning, Policy, and Design from the University of California, Irvine.

MARLON BOARNET, PhD

Dr. Boarnet is Professor of Public Policy and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Affairs in the Sol Price School of Public Policy at the University of Southern California. Dr. Boarnet’s research focuses on land use and transportation, links between land use and travel behavior and associated implications for public health and greenhouse gas emissions, urban growth patterns, and the economic impacts of transportation infrastructure. He is co-author of Travel by Design (Oxford University Press, 2001), a comprehensive study of the link between land use and travel. Dr. Boarnet is a fellow of the Weimer School of the Homer Hoyt Institute for Real Estate, and he received the 2013 David Boyce award for service to regional science from the North American Regional Science Association.

DOUG HOUSTON, PhD

Dr. Douglas Houston (BA, University of Texas, Austin; MA, PhD, UC Los Angeles) is an Assistant Professor of Planning, Policy, and Design at the University of California, Irvine. His research focuses on the environmental and health implications of urban development and transportation systems. His recent work has appeared in the Journal of Transport Geography, Environment and Planning A, and the American Journal of Public Health and assesses the environmental and land use implications of vehicle-related air pollution for residents of goods movement corridors and evaluates the implications of compact development and transit investments on travel behavior and activity patterns. This work has received support from the California Air Resources Board, the California Department of Transportation, the University of California Transportation Center, and the California Endowment, and it uses travel surveys and real-time location and pollution tracking techniques to inform policies seeking to make neighborhoods more compact, mixed-use, and transit accessible in hopes of reducing vehicle travel and associated air pollution.

STEVEN SPEARS, PhD

Dr. Steven Spears (BS, Clemson University; Pg.Dip., Cardiff University; MURP, Virginia Commonwealth University; PhD, University of California, Irvine) is an Assistant Professor in the School of Urban and Regional Planning at the University of Iowa. His research focuses on understanding how attitudes, perceptions of the built environment, and habits affect transportation mode choice and physical activity. His recent work has appeared in Transportation Research Part A – Policy and Practice and Urban Studies and is focused on

Mineta Transportation Institute About the Authors 51 the impact of transit investments on travel attitudes and behavior. This work has received support from the University of California Transportation Center and has implications for the design of policies that encourage attitude change to help maximize return on investments in sustainable transportation infrastructure.

JEONGWOO LEE, PhD

Dr. Lee received her doctoral degree at the University of Southern California (USC) and her dissertation focuses on how perceptions, local land use, and environmental characteristics are related to transit use, with a particular emphasis on walk access to transit. Dr. Lee has been a research assistant with the National Center for Metropolitan Transportation Research (METRANS) at USC, collaborating with her colleagues on several transportation research projects. She received a scholarship from the Los Angeles Chapter of the Women’s Transportation Seminar in November 2011. Dr. Lee is currently a Research Professor in the Institute of Urban Sciences at the University of Seoul, and she is extending her transport research using transit and pedestrian travel data from the Seoul metropolitan area.

Mineta Transportation Institute 52

PEER REVIEW

San José State University, of the California State University system, and the MTI Board of Trustees have agreed upon a peer review process required for all research published by MTI. The purpose of the review process is to ensure that the results presented are based upon a professionally acceptable research protocol.

Research projects begin with the approval of a scope of work by the sponsoring entities, with in-process reviews by the MTI Research Director and the Research Associated Policy Oversight Committee (RAPOC). Review of the draft research product is conducted by the Research Committee of the Board of Trustees and may include invited critiques from other professionals in the subject field. The review is based on the professional propriety of the research methodology.

Mineta Transportation Institute MINETA TRANSPORTATION INSTITUTE MTI FOUNDER Hon. Norman Y. Mineta The Norman Y. Mineta International Institute for Surface Transportation Policy Studies was established by Congress in the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA). The Institute’s Board of Trustees revised the name to Mineta MTI BOARD OF TRUSTEES Transportation Institute (MTI) in 1996. Reauthorized in 1998, MTI was selected by the U.S. Department of Transportation through a competitive process in 2002 as a national “Center of Excellence.” The Institute is funded by Congress through the Founder, Honorable Norman Thomas Barron (TE 2015) Ed Hamberger (Ex-Officio) Michael Townes* (TE 2014) United States Department of Transportation’s Research and Innovative Technology Administration, the California Legislature Mineta (Ex-Officio) Executive Vice President President/CEO Senior Vice President through the Department of Transportation (Caltrans), and by private grants and donations. Secretary (ret.), US Department of Strategic Initiatives Association of American Railroads Transit Sector Transportation Parsons Group HNTB Vice Chair Steve Heminger (TE 2015) The Institute receives oversight from an internationally respected Board of Trustees whose members represent all major surface Hill & Knowlton, Inc. Joseph Boardman (Ex-Officio) Executive Director Bud Wright (Ex-Officio) Chief Executive Officer Metropolitan Transportation Executive Director transportation modes. MTI’s focus on policy and management resulted from a Board assessment of the industry’s unmet needs Honorary Chair, Honorable Bill Amtrak Commission American Association of State and led directly to the choice of the San José State University College of Business as the Institute’s home. The Board provides Shuster (Ex-Officio) Highway and Transportation Officials Chair Donald Camph (TE 2016) Diane Woodend Jones (TE 2016) (AASHTO) policy direction, assists with needs assessment, and connects the Institute and its programs with the international transportation House Transportation and President Principal and Chair of Board community. Infrastructure Committee Aldaron, Inc. Lea+Elliot, Inc. Edward Wytkind (Ex-Officio) United States House of President Representatives Anne Canby (TE 2014) Will Kempton (TE 2016) Transportation Trades Dept., MTI’s transportation policy work is centered on three primary responsibilities: Director Executive Director AFL-CIO Honorary Co-Chair, Honorable OneRail Coalition Transportation California Peter DeFazio (Ex-Officio) Research Vice Chair Grace Crunican (TE 2016) Jean-Pierre Loubinoux (Ex-Officio) (TE) = Term Expiration or Ex-Officio House Transportation and General Manager Director General * = Past Chair, Board of Trustee MTI works to provide policy-oriented research for all levels of Department of Transportation, MTI delivers its classes over Infrastructure Committee Bay Area Rapid Transit District International Union of Railways government and the private sector to foster the development a state-of-the-art videoconference network throughout United States House of (UIC) of optimum surface transportation systems. Research areas in- Representatives William Dorey (TE 2014) the state of California and via webcasting beyond, allowing Board of Directors Michael Melaniphy (Ex-Officio) clude: transportation security; planning and policy development; working transportation professionals to pursue an advanced Chair, Stephanie Pinson Granite Construction, Inc. President & CEO interrelationships among transportation, land use, and the degree regardless of their location. To meet the needs of (TE 2015) American Public Transportation President/COO Malcolm Dougherty (Ex-Officio) Association (APTA) environment; transportation finance; and collaborative labor- employers seeking a diverse workforce, MTI’s education Gilbert Tweed Associates, Inc. Director management relations. Certified Research Associates conduct program promotes enrollment to under-represented groups. California Department of Jeff Morales (TE 2016) Vice Chair, Nuria Fernandez Transportation CEO the research. Certification requires an advanced degree, gener- (TE 2014) California High-Speed Rail Authority ally a Ph.D., a record of academic publications, and profession- Information and Technology Transfer General Manager/CEO Mortimer Downey* (TE 2015) Valley Transportation Senior Advisor David Steele, PhD (Ex-Officio) al references. Research projects culminate in a peer-reviewed MTI promotes the availability of completed research to Authority Parsons Brinckerhoff Dean, College of Business publication, available both in hardcopy and on TransWeb, professional organizations and journals and works to San José State University Executive Director, Rose Guilbault (TE 2014) the MTI website (http://transweb.sjsu.edu). integrate the research findings into the graduate education Karen Philbrick, PhD Board Member Beverley Swaim-Staley (TE 2016) program. In addition to publishing the studies, the Institute Mineta Transportation Institute Peninsula Corridor Joint Powers President San José State University Board (Caltrain) Union Station Redevelopment Education also sponsors symposia to disseminate research results Corporation The educational goal of the Institute is to provide graduate-lev- to transportation professionals and encourages Research el education to students seeking a career in the development Associates to present their findings at conferences. The and operation of surface transportation programs. MTI, through World in Motion, MTI’s quarterly newsletter, covers Directors Research Associates Policy Oversight Committee San José State University, offers an AACSB-accredited Master of innovation in the Institute’s research and education pro- Karen Philbrick, PhD Asha Weinstein Agrawal, PhD Frances Edwards, PhD Science in Transportation Management and a graduate Certifi- grams. MTI’s extensive collection of transportation-related Executive Director Urban and Regional Planning Political Science cate in Transportation Management that serve to prepare the na- publications is integrated into San José State University’s San José State University San José State University tion’s transportation managers for the 21st century. The master’s world-class Martin Luther King, Jr. Library. Hon. Rod Diridon, Sr. degree is the highest conferred by the California State Uni- Emeritus Executive Director Jan Botha, PhD Taeho Park, PhD Civil & Environmental Engineering versity system. With the active assistance of the California Organization and Management San José State University Peter Haas, PhD San José State University Education Director Katherine Kao Cushing, PhD Diana Wu Donna Maurillo Enviromental Science Martin Luther King, Jr. Library San José State University San José State University Communications Director DISCLAIMER Brian Michael Jenkins Dave Czerwinski, PhD Marketing and Decision Science The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors, who are responsible for the facts and accuracy of the information presented National Transportation Safety and San José State University herein. This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Transportation, University Transportation Centers Security Center Program and the California Department of Transportation, in the interest of information exchange. This report does not necessarily reflect the official views or policies of the U.S. government, State of California, or the Mineta Transportation Institute, who assume no liability Asha Weinstein Agrawal, PhD for the contents or use thereof. This report does not constitute a standard specification, design standard, or regulation. National Transportation Finance Center MTI

MTI Report 12-44 December 2012December