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Process-Based Models of Biodiversity Response to Global Change Process-based models of biodiversity response to global change Dissertation zur Erlangung des Doktorgrades der Naturwissenschaften (Dr. rer. nat.) der Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät I – Biowissenschaften – der Martin-Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg, vorgelegt von Frau Ana Ceia-Hasse geb. am 19.06.1978 in Lissabon, Portugal Gutachter: 1. Prof. Dr. Henrique Pereira 2. Prof. Dr. Tiffany Knight 3. Prof. Dr. Volker Grimm Datum der Verteidigung: 26.04.2017 Copyright notice: Chapters 2 to 4 have been either published in or submitted to international journals. Reprint of the presented material requires permissions, except for chapter 3, which has been published open access. Contents Kjhl gfjdhzxhjvhjklçºkcj li ewjg fweiuf Kjhlgfjdhzxhjvhjklçºkcj li ewjg fweiufKjhlgfjdhzxhjvhjklçºkcj Summary . 3 Chapter 1. Introduction . 5 1.1. Biodiversity change, and environmental change . 5 1.2. Modeling biodiversity responses to environmental change . 5 1.3. Population persistence in fragmented landscapes . 7 1.4. Vulnerability to land-use change . 8 1.5. Range shifts in response to climate change . 9 1.6. Outline of the thesis . 10 1.7. References . 12 Chapter 2. Population persistence in fragmented landscapes . 17 2.1. Abstract . 17 2.2. Introduction . 18 2.3. Methods . 19 2.4. Results . 22 2.5. Discussion . 25 2.6. Acknowledgements . 26 2.7. References . 26 Chapter 3. Vulnerability to land-use change . 29 3.1. Abstract . 29 3.2. Introduction . 30 3.3. Methods . 31 3.4. Results . 36 3.5. Discussion . 39 3.6. Acknowledgements . 41 3.7. Supporting information in appendix . 41 3.8. Biosketch . 41 3.9. References . 41 Chapter 4. Range shifts in response to climate change . 45 4.1. Abstract . 45 4.2. Introduction . 46 1 Contents 4.3. Material and methods . 49 4.4. Results . 55 4.5. Discussion . 58 4.6. Acknowledgements . 60 4.7. References . 60 Chapter 5. Synthesis . 65 5.1. General discussion and contributions of the thesis . 65 5.1.1. Population persistence in fragmented landscapes . 65 5.1.2. Vulnerability to land-use change . 66 5.1.3. Range shifts in response to climate change . 67 5.2. General issues and ways forward for process-based models . 68 5.3. References . 70 Acknowledgements . 73 Appendix . 75 Supporting information for chapter 3 . 75 Curriculum vitae . 91 List of publications . 93 Erklärung über den persöhnlichen Anteil an den Publikationen . 95 Eigenständigkeitserklärung . 97 Summary Summary The present biodiversity crisis is unmatched. Despite increasing efforts from society to slow biodiversity loss, the status of biodiversity is projected to continue to decline. Improving our ability to understand and predict biodiversity responses to environmental change is fundamental to conserve biodiversity and inform conservation policies. Projections of change are essential for conservation planning, but more broadly they are needed to manage ecosystem services and functions. The aims of this thesis were to develop modeling frameworks that contribute to better understand and predict biodiversity responses to environmental change. Process-based models are emphasized, and where possible, the integration with other approaches, using the integration of process-based models with macroecology, by incorporating different types of information, or by combining those with other types of models. The issues addressed were population persistence in fragmented landscapes (chapter 2), vulnerability to land-use change (chapter 3), and range shifts in response to climate change (chapter 4). Chapter 2 of this thesis investigated factors driving population isolation, persistence and size in fragmented landscapes, using a spatially explicit individual-based model of population dynamics. Direct road mortality and road avoidance contribute to decreased population abundance, to population isolation and subdivision, and therefore to increased population extinction risk. Species traits such as dispersal have also been suggested to influence population responses to land-use change. However, the relative importance of these factors on the persistence of populations is still not fully understood. Chapter 2 assessed the effect of road mortality and of road avoidance, and their interaction with dispersal, on population isolation, persistence and size, in landscapes fragmented by varying levels of road density. Both road mortality and road avoidance caused population isolation, but road mortality alone had stronger negative effects than road avoidance alone. However, road avoidance also resulted in decreased population size, highlighting the importance of knowing both the levels of road mortality and of road avoidance for effective long-term conservation management. Populations with large dispersal distances were more negatively affected as road mortality increased, but maintained larger sizes than populations with a short dispersal distance when there was no road mortality. When road avoidance was complete, populations either went extinct, or maintained small sizes, suggesting that at least a small amount of dispersal is needed for population persistence. The model presented in chapter 2 can be adapted to species-specific situations and to represent real landscape configurations, and in this sense it can also be used in environmental impact assessments, and for conservation planning. Chapter 3 of this thesis developed a spatially explicit modeling framework that combines a mechanistic population model with life history data, biogeographic data, and land-use data. This framework was used to assess the exposure of biodiversity to a major threat, the road infrastructure, and to map hotspots of road impact on biodiversity globally. Roads cause major impacts on populations, and 3 Summary the road network is projected to expand in the coming years. However, studies evaluating the impact of roads on population persistence are still not common, center on a small number of species, and upscale, at best, to national levels. Assessments on larger scales, and across species, were never conducted. The evaluation performed in chapter 3 used a simple, spatially explicit demographic reaction-diffusion model that describes population dynamics and the dispersal of individuals. The framework was applied to a particularly vulnerable group - terrestrial mammalian carnivore species, and predicted that species are affected in regions with medium to high road density, but also in regions with relatively low road density. Hotspots of road impact were predicted for North America and Asia. Approximately one-third of the species expected to be more exposed to roads has not been identified by IUCN as threatened by roads. These species belong to families Felidae, Ursidae, Mustelidae, Canidae and Procyonidae. The approach presented in chapter 3 can be applied at different spatial scales and to evaluate the effects of road network development, as well as to identify species requiring specific mitigation or restoration measures. Using different types of models under a common modeling framework may reduce uncertainty in projections of biodiversity response to environmental change. However, this approach is not generally adopted. This gap was addressed in chapter 4, using a.
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