Laentrada NL 2008.Ai

Study Director Study

Peggy Thurin, PE Thurin, Peggy

Division Director Division La Entrada al Paciﬁco

Jim Randall, PE Randall, Jim Volume 2 Spring 2008

Division

Planning and Programming and Planning

of the TxDOT Transportation TxDOT the of

Newsletter is a publication a is Newsletter Study Process Update La Entrada al Pacifico al Entrada La The

The potential of the La In the phases to follow, team members will Entrada al Pacifico analyze each of the major route alternatives in (LEAP) trade corridor in the region in order to assess the most appro- West Texas and its priate application of potential improvements. impacts to local and This analysis will be based on demographic, regional mobility contin- socioeconomic, environmental, economic, ues to be the focus of safety, and engineering data; and will study this study by the Texas expected travel demands along these routes Department of Transportation. – including commercial traffic – projected for the year 2030.

The La Entrada al Pacifico corridor was Dallas, Texas 75248-1232 Texas Dallas, designated from Lamesa to Presidio by both “Once a realistic trade number is determined,

17111 Preston Road, Suite 200 Suite Road, Preston 17111 then – and only then– can local and regional

Texas Department of Transportation of Department Texas state and federal authorities to provide a Peggy Thurin, P.E. Thurin, Peggy potential link for commercial traffic from the impacts on the Texas roadway network be Pacific Coast of Mexico and Western Mexico assessed,” he said. through West Texas. “If the forecasted trade flow at the Presidio This LEAP study, which will determine what Port of Entry is significant over the next 25 highway improvements are needed to meet years, this study will help form a plan that will anticipated trade demand, is currently finaliz- minimize the impacts to the area,” explained ing a Risk Analysis Process (RAP) that will Saenz. “If the forecasted trade flow is relatively We Want to Hear From You provide forecast data on incoming freight at low, then the study will be modified to only the Presidio Port of Entry for inclusion into address safety and local mobility needs.” The Texas Department of Transpor- the travel demand modeling process. tation (TxDOT) invites and welcomes Written Comments to: He said that the study is designed to identify Peggy Thurin, P.E. Results of each step are being and will existing local and regional impacts in the study your input during the La Entrada al Texas Department of Transportation continue to be presented to the public at public area and plan for any future needs expected Pacifico Study. Community and 17111 Preston Road, Suite 200 Dallas, Texas 75248-1232 meetings scheduled throughout the study, as to occur as a result of continued growth in the agency involvement are vital in deter- well as in meetings with local citizens on a region and the potential impact of trade flows mining the key issues and constraints Project Hotline: Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) repre- from Presidio. and identifying alternatives as we 1-800-517-4652 senting various local and regional interests. “Due to funding limitations and competition work toward our goal of building con- Email Comments to: “The purpose of this study is not to promote a from other projects statewide, a plan is sensus among the area communities [email protected] trade corridor,” said Amadeo Saenz, TxDOT’s needed that addresses mobility deficiencies Executive Director. “It is to assess the poten- and is sensitive to the environmental and com- and project stakeholders. The follow- Project Web Site:

Newsletter munity vision,” said Saenz. ing options are available to you if you http://www.dot.state.tx.us/services/transportation_planning_and_ tial of a trade corridor and forecast trade flow would like to be added to the LEAP programming/la_entrada/default.htm. at the Presidio Port of Entry.” "We are still fairly early in the study process mailing list, leave a comment for the A La Entrada al Pacifico project web site is available on the TxDOT Impacts of foreign imports and freight diver- and no outcome has been determined,” said studies web page that contains information related to the La Entrada al project staff and/or find information sion from other ports of entry with Mexico will Saenz. "Public involvement is a significant Pacifico project including project background, maps and upcoming events. about the project. be assessed and used to determine the part of the process and we greatly appreciate impact at Presidio, according to Saenz. input we have received already.” FOUR www.txdot.gov ONE Este boletín informativo también esta disponible en español 4 1 Este boletín informativo también esta disponible en español Risk Analysis Process (RAP)…What Is It? PUBLIC MEETINGS

An analysis of the expected freight diversion to Step Three: Engage experts and TAC ALPINE PRESIDIO MIDLAND FT. STOCKTON the LEAP Corridor was conducted using HDR members3 in assessment of model and Decision Economics’ Risk Analysis Process assumption risks (the “RAP Session”); and Tuesday Wednesday Monday Tuesday (RAP). RAP involves a series of processes February 19, 2008 February 20, 2008 February 25, 2008 February 26, 2008 including economic analysis, third party review 4 Step Four: Update risk analysis assump- 6:00PM 6:00PM 6:00PM 6:00PM of inputs and assumptions, and a probability tions, run the freight forecasting diversion Sul Ross State University Presidio High School Center for Energy & Economic Fort Stockton High School model, and report and document results Espino Conference Room 1000 East FM 170 Diversification (CEED) - UTPB 1200 West 17th Street analysis. The Technical Advisory Committee University Center, 2nd Floor Presidio, Texas 79845 1400 North FM 1788 Ft. Stockton, Texas 79735 (TAC) was assembled for RAP session meet- (currently underway). 400 North Harrison Midland, Texas 79706 Alpine, Texas 79830 ings in Alpine and Odessa in late October to provide perspectives on the impacts of port capacity limits, travel time savings and alterna- What’s Next? tive routes on future Presidio crossing The next steps are to finalize the RAP and Conceptual LEAP Study Alternatives volumes. Responses from the TAC provided a hold another round of public meetings to pres- foundation for the reasoned assessments of ent the results to the public for comment. The the varying sources of potential traffic and second round of public meetings is planned for have generated helpful suggestions on refine- February 2008. Then, after any revisions are ments to better capture all likely impacts. made as a result of the public meetings, the LEAP team will utilize the results from the RAP Risk Analysis provides a way of developing to assess impacts to the LEAP Study Area. traffic and/or freight forecasts in an inherently uncertain environment. It helps avoid the lack Conceptual Alternatives have been identified of perspective in the typical approach of and a map has been provided on page three presenting “high” and “low” cases by measur- (3) of this newsletter. These conceptual alter- ing the probability or “odds” that any particular natives, including a No-Build Alternative, will outcome will actually materialize. be evaluated by progressively screening them based on environmental, mobility and engi- The Risk Analysis Process involves four steps: neering criteria. These will then be narrowed down to Viable Alternative(s) for future consid- Step One: Define the structure and logic of 1 eration. Finally, the goal of the study is to the forecasting problem, in this case freight diversion to Presidio and the LEAP Corridor; create a corridor development plan identifying improvements and timelines needed through- 2Step Two: Assign estimates and ranges out the LEAP Study Area to address both (probability distributions) to each key factor existing and future needs of the region. and forecasting coefficient in the structure and logic model from Step 1;

Project Timeline

S T U Notice to Public Conceptual Public Viable Public Corridor D Y Alternatives Alternatives Development Proceed Meeting #1 Meeting #2 Meeting #3 C Screening Screening Plan O Dec 2006 Mar 2007 Feb 2008 Aug 2008 M Jan 2008 May 2008 Oct 2008 P L E T E TWO2 Where we are to date THREE 3 Risk Analysis Process (RAP)…What Is It? PUBLIC MEETINGS