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research Journal Vol. viii APRIL 2017 research Journal Vol. usrussia.stanford.edu THE STANFORD US-RUSSIA FORUM US-RUSSIA THE STANFORD The Stanford US-Russia Forum ∙ Research Journal ∙ Vol. viii ∙ April 2017 THE STANFORD US-RUSSIA FORUM RESEARCH JOURNAL VOL. VIII, APRIL 2017 Edited by Alexis Lerner For reprints please contact [email protected] The Stanford US-Russia Forum Encina Hall, Stanford University 616 Serra Drive Stanford, CA 94305 www.usrussia.stanford.edu © 2017 Alexis Lerner. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system without the prior written permission of the publisher. Front Cover Image: Administration Building of the Tyumen Region Government, Tyumen, Russia Rear Cover Image: Memorial Court, Stanford University ISBN-13: 978-0-9896006-1-3 Printed in the United States of America THE STANFORD US-RUSSIA FORUM RESEARCH JOURNAL VOL. VIII, APRIL 2017 Edited by Alexis Lerner THE STANFORD US-RUSSIA FORUM A PREVENTIVE DEFENSE PROJECT INITIATIVE Stanford, California ARTICLES: I. SCIENCE & II. ENTREPRENEURSHIP III. EDUCATION & IV. TRADE & 1TECHNOLOGY 2& INNOVATION FOREIGN3 AREA STUDIES 4ECONOMICS THE HIDDEN BORN GLOBALS IN EVALUATING BOEING IN RUSSIA: POTENTIAL OF RUSSIA: FACTORS US-RUSSIA AN ANALYSIS OF UNIVERSITY-LEVEL AND INCENTIVES ACADEMIC THE AIRCRAFT SCIENCE AND FOR STARTUPS TO EXCHANGE INDUSTRY IN TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONALIZE OUTCOMES: TURBULENT TIMES, COLLABORATION EVIDENCE FROM 1990 TO THE BETWEEN THE 13 DISCOURSE AND PRESENT UNITED STATES SURVEY ANALYSIS AND RUSSIA Andrey Bakalenko 35 Katarina Sabova 23 1 Grace Ballor Evelina Akimova Alexander Dorofeev Tanveer Karim Ziba Dzhafarova Kirstyn Hevey Ekaterina Paramonova David Kurkovskiy Sofia Shchukina Daria Stepanova Elena Rodina Timur Sobolev Katherine Schroeder CONTENT Preface.......................................................................................................v Appendix..................................................................................................95 About the contributors..................................................113 About surf.........................................................................................117 V. ARMS VI. CONFLICT VII. ENERGY VIII. CYBERSECURITY 5CONTROL 6RESOLUTION 7GEOPOLITICS 8 COOPERATION OR NATO AND DANCING AROUND US-RUSSIA COMPETITION? US-RUSSIA SANCTIONS: COOPERATION: RUSSIA, THE RELATIONS: A OPERATIONS AND UNDERSTANDING UNITED STATES, ROADBLOCK OR AN STRATEGIES OF CYBERSECURITY AND THE ELUSIVE OPPORTUNITY? ENERGY FIRMS IN CONTEXTUALIZATIONS PROMISE OF RUSSIA MISSILE DEFENSE 61 85 75 47 Tatti Currey Elza Ganeeva Irina Gavrilova Mugi Bayarlkhagva Ashe Magalhaes Joel Beckner Nikita Melashchenko Eugeniu Han Susan Wen Amber Heng Qin Daria Vikulova Aliya Khayrullina Ian Johnson Anastasia Zabusova Nadezhda Smakhtina STANFORD SURF Team EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR Ravi Patel DIRECTOR Kenneth Martinez DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH Alexis Lerner DIRECTOR OF OPERATIONS Nelson Zhao Preface: From the Editor STAFF Nina Zholudeva Dear Readers, Cyrus Ordoobadi It is with great excitement that we introduce the ninth annual issue of the Stanford US-Russia Forum Journal. This year’s leadership team brought researchers together SURF MENTORS 2016-17 and guided them through a year-long writing process—from brainstorming to data collection and copy-editing—in order to produce these eight outstanding pieces. Rachel Salzman SURF seeks to bring together bright young scholars from around the world to think critically about bettering US-Russia relations. And the contributors to this journal Alyssa Haas do just that. Researchers Evelina Akimova (Oxford University, Sociology), Ziba Dzhafarova Victoria Zhuravleva (Higher School of Economics, Education Policy), David Kurkovskiy (Yale, Comput- er Science and Russian Studies), Elena Rodina (Northwestern University, Media, Chris Miller Technology, and Society), and Katherine Schroeder (Stanford University, Center for Nina Rozhanovskaya Russian, East European, and Eurasian Studies) show that educational exchanges between the US and Russia help students to develop their language skills and cul- Larisa Deriglazova tural understanding, and therefore are valuable learning opportunities. However, the team concludes that sponsoring institutions could better design their pre-de- Jan Kalicki parture materials to preemptively counter stereotypes. Tanveer Karim (Harvard University, Astrophysics), Ekaterina Paramanova (École Polytechnique Fédérale de Tatiana Tropina Lausanne, Energy Management), and Daria Stepanova (Skolkovo Institute of Sci- ence and Technology, Space Systems Management) also find that opportunities for SPECIAL THANKS scholarly, bi-national collaboration among scholars from mid-tier universities are ripe and overlooked. In their article, they develop a quantitative study that maps WIlliam J. Perry collaboration among researchers in the hard sciences at American and Russian universities. The team shows that scholars co-publish with American and Russian Michael McFaul colleagues in some fields—physics, for example—but miss opportunities in others, such as clinical science. Deborah Gordon Other research teams explored bi-national business opportunities. Drawing from expert interviews, Andrey Bakalenko (Russian Academy of Sciences, Insti- Kathryn Stoner tute of Economics) and Katarina Sabova (Columbia University, Business) identify the incentives for Russian startups to internationalize to the US market. They con- Matthew Rojansky clude that external factors like the size of the market, available funding, and the Olga Miller Silicon Valley-brand are the primary drivers for Russian start-ups to enter the US market. Back in Russia, Grace Ballor (University of California-Los Angeles, European Sergei Petrov Economic History), Alexander Dorofeev (New York University, Economics), Kirstyn Hevey (University of Toronto, Political Science), Sofia Shchukina (Harvard Univer- Vladimir Yakushev sity, Economics), and Timur Sobolev (Moscow State University, Economics) explore the structure of US-Russia aviation trade in recent years. In their piece, they explain why Russia imported more airplanes between 2010 and 2015 than in the preceding Preface | vi 15 years. They find that this trade dynamic is unique due to existing subsidies, an increased demand for travel, and the weakness of the domestic market. And Mugi Bayarlkhagya (Johns Hopkins SAIS, Middle East Studies), Eugeniu Han (Pardee RAND Graduate School, Public Policy), Aliya Khayrullina (Skolkovo Institute of Science & Technology, Power Engineering), and Anastasia Zabusova (Institut Barcelona d’Estudis Internacionals/Central European University, Public Policy) develop the Sanctions Impact Indicator (SII) Formula to measure the impact of western sanctions on oil companies operating in Russia. They find that firms with domestic counterparts, long-term projects, and government protections are most cushioned from negative effects. The last three articles address the crux of US-Russia tensions: geopolitics and security. Joel Beckner (Stanford University, Center for Russian, East European, and Eurasian Studies), Amber Heng Qin (Wellesley College, Political Science), Ian Johnson (Yale, History), and Nadezhda Smaktina (American University, International Service; Tyumen State University, International Relations) evaluate the risks of a new missile defense arms race between the two states. They conclude that poor relations and the perceived effectiveness of existing systems render cooperation unlikely. Elza Geneeva (Higher School of Economics, Governance in Science, Technology, and Innovation), Ashe Magalhaes (Stanford University, Computer Science), and Susan Wen (Rice University, Computer Science and Political Science) address the escalating crisis between the US and Russia in cybersecurity, arguing that failure in this arena is the result of discordant conceptual understanding between English and Russian speakers. Finally, Tatti Currey (George Mason University, Conflict Analysis and Resolution), Irina Gavrilova (Yale Uni- versity, Theater Studies), Nikita Melashchenko (Vanderbilt University, Law), and Daria Vikulova (Moscow State Institute of International Relations, Applied Economics and Commerce) explain the role of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in a post-Cold War world. They argue that conflict in US-NATO-Russia relations results from competing narratives about broken promises, the use of force, and world order. I want to express my sincere gratitude to all those that contributed to the completion of this publication. The 2016-2017 team of mentors, peer-reviewers, and copy-editors proved unmatched; in particular, the aesthetic and substantive quality of this journal is very much in thanks to Kenneth Martinez’s countless hours of editing and designing. Thank you, also, to Ravi Patel and Nelson Zhao for their tireless work in the name of strengthening and deepening US-Russia relations. Without them, the Stanford US-Russia Forum would not be what it is today. Alexis Lerner Director of Research 1 The Hidden Potential of University-Level Science and Technology Collaborations Between the US and Russia I. Science, Technology, and Engineering Working Group Tanveer Karim, Ekaterina Paramonova, and Daria Stepanova Abstract Science and Technology (S&T) research has become increasingly global in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. However, the United States (US)