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Brexit and the European Commission European Policy Analysis JUNE . ISSUE 2017:5epa Michael Leigh* Brexit and the European Commission Abstract Brexit will lead to a reduction in the EU budget of up to fifteen per cent, depending on the withdrawal agreement, if any, and on the willingness of other member states to make up the shortfall. This could lead to a drop of around 2,000 commission employees in different categories. The number of commissioners will fall from 28 to 27; Commission representation offices in the U.K. will close. Brexit could add to the centralization of power in the commission, with the president and the president’s chief of staff, gaining further influence at the expense of the secretary-general and line departments. The absence of a British commissioner will make it harder to bridge the gap between commissioners from eurozone countries and those from counties not using the euro. The commission’s commitment to freer trade and to extending the single market into new areas may be less vigorous in Britain’s absence. Britain’s departure may also put the commission’s commitment to an open, accountable, transparent administrative culture under pressure. Brexit, together with other developments such as the possible appointment of a “Finance Minister” and accompanying bureaucracy, could accentuate inter-governmentalism in the EU, at the commission’s expense. Member states committed to an integrated European approach and to maintaining an independent and effective European public service will need to be particularly attentive to such trends after Britain leaves. 1 The June 2017 British general election The British general election of June 2017 has created further The DUP is strongly pro-Brexit and has socially conservative uncertainty concerning the manner in which the United views. These conflict with the opinion of many Conservative Kingdom will leave the European Union. This is one of MPs, not least Ruth Davidson, the party’s leader in the factors that will affect the likely impact of Brexit on the Scotland, whose followers won twelve parliamentary European Union and the Commission, the main focus of seats from the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the June the present paper. The new House of Commons elected in election. The DUP opposes continued British membership June will probably prove unable to endorse clear objectives in the EU’s single market and customs union. At the same for the Brexit negotiations or to adopt key legislation. The time, it is against a hard border between Northern Ireland opposition will take advantage of every opportunity to unseat and the Republic of Ireland, as well as any obstacles to free the government. The minority Conservative government movement between Northern Ireland and the rest of the will most likely be unstable and short-lived. It will probably UK. Yet a hard border may be needed to control trade in depend on the ten members of parliament (MPs) of the goods as a result of Britain leaving the EU customs union. Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland (DUP) for This is an example of the contradictory positions that are a razor thin majority to approve essential legislation. likely to dog the new British parliament. * Michael Leigh is a Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF). Swedish Institute for European Policy Studies www.sieps.se EUROPEAN POLICY ANALYSIS 2017:5 . PAGE 1 Dependence on this small idiosyncratic party will make it Accommodating the U.K. will not be a priority for the new even harder for the present British Prime Minister Theresa governments in Berlin and Paris, to be formed following May to maintain control of her own party, obtain the this year’s elections. Rather they will be looking to address approval of the House of Commons for her Brexit strategy the domestic concerns of their voters, shore up the EU and find compromise solutions with the EU. It is likely that and find solutions to its multiple problems, from eurozone she will be replaced as Prime Minister in the coming months governance to migration. and that there will be a second general election. The Labour Party might then gain a majority, though the situation 2 Brexit scenarios remains highly volatile. The resurrection of the Labour The EU’s reaction to Brexit will be affected by the leader, Jeremy Corbyn, following his party’s unexpected international environment. The forces behind the Brexit electoral success, may prove short-lived. The Labour Party vote in the June 2016 referendum form part of a broader under his leadership is now broadly favourable to Brexit and populist challenge to the principles framing transatlantic might eventually support a softer Brexit model, possibly relations and international politics for much of the post- involving British membership of the European Economic World War II, post-Cold War period. This challenge takes Area (EEA) or similar arrangements. place against the background of Russian assertiveness and aggression, China’s increasing international role, instability In any event, the June election has cast doubt on British to the south and east, the prospect of further large-scale negotiating objectives. The present parliament will be migration as well as terrorism, whether home-grown or unable to endorse any specific Brexit strategy and may balk launched from abroad, and a tenuous recovery from the at Theresa May’s proposed “Great Repeal Act.” This would post-2008 recession. It occurs also at a time when there repeal the 1972 European Communities Act, the legislative are hopes that the eurozone’s structural weaknesses may be basis for British EU membership, and enact into British law addressed, at least in part, through the efforts of France’s new all current EU legislation, pending subsequent review. A president Emmanuel Macron, and the German chancellor, minority government may not be able to persuade the House Angela Merkel, or her successor, after the German elections of Commons to adopt this massive piece of legislation, with in September. a minimum of parliamentary scrutiny. Yet it is the legislative underpinning for Mrs. May’s entire Brexit policy. Even if Scenarios for Brexit range from a smooth transition or the Brexit negotiations open formally as planned, they are implementation period, during which many EU rules, laws unlikely to make real progress until a government with a and institutional arrangements will continue to apply in clear mandate is in place in London. Britain, pending the entry into force of a new long-term agreement, to a “hard Brexit” under which the UK will The British government formed in June 2017 will be simply leave the EU, pursuant to article 50 of the Treaty on weaker than its predecessor and, therefore, less able to European Union, without any agreed “divorce settlement” resist the unified negotiating position of the European or outline of the future EU-U.K. relationship. This is often Union (EU). This government or its successor may face referred to in Britain as the “cliff edge.” the choice between largely accepting the EU’s negotiating position on the sequence of the negotiations and the But EU leaders are eager to move on from Brexit to proposed withdrawal agreement or of crashing out of the address other pressing issues and will be reluctant to agree EU without any agreement at all, a damaging outcome for to transitional arrangements. The EU’s conditions for a all parties, but especially for Britain. This could be averted transition or “implementation” period are likely to prove if the U.K. and the EU reach agreement on a transitional unacceptable to many British politicians. These conditions period providing for a standstill until a long-term include continued free movement of workers, payments agreement establishing the framework for future relations into the EU budget and the jurisdiction of the European takes effect. Court of Justice (ECJ). All three are anathema to diehard Conservative MPs and find little sympathy in the Labour However, many MPs would reject the EU’s conditions Party leadership. Yet other Conservative leaders, especially for such an arrangement: continued free movement Ruth Davidson in Scotland, appear ready to give priority of workers, budget payments and jurisdiction by the to the single market and trade over restricting immigration. European Court of Justice. Both British Brexiters and the If these differences become acute, the Conservative Party European Parliament will be keen to limit the length of any might split, presaging a possible political realignment in transitional period, for fear that it may become permanent. Britain. PAGE 2 . EUROPEAN POLICY ANALYSIS 2017:5 The nature of the future relationship between Britain the type of Brexit will be held constant in an effort to sketch and the EU remains to be determined. The predominant the broad implications of British withdrawal for EU policies assumption in mid-2017 is that it will take the form of a and institutions, notably the Commission. Some initial Free Trade Agreement, broadly resembling the EU-Canada implications are mechanical, following, for example, the Comprehensive Trade and Economic Agreement (CETA) cessation of budgetary contributions by the UK and of EU but tailor-made for Britain. The CETA experience as well expenditure in Britain. Even here, however, there is a range as the Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine of options as to how the EU adapts to a reduced overall show how difficult it might be to obtain unanimous approval budget. Other implications are qualitative and require a of an ambitious “mixed” agreement, i.e. an agreement to schematic analysis of the likely impact on policy. which all member states as well as the EU as such would be party. Yet the “deep and special” relationship that Mrs. May Britain’s declining engagement in European affairs has been is seeking should, in the British view, cover also security built into EU policy-making at least since a referendum and migration issues that involve the legal responsibility of was announced as part of the Conservative Party’s electoral member states.
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