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News. Analysis. Comment March-April 2021 Vol.4 No.13

ETHIOPIA AT THE CROSSROADS: THE PERILS OF NARROW NATIONALISM JOHN KENYA’S MAGUFULI: IRONIES OF HIS LEGACY ETHNICITY

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0303409180 • 0244958822 www.theroyalsenchi.com | [email protected] PUBLISHER’S NOTE PUBLISHER’S NOTE John Pombe Magufuli – Publisher Africathe conviction bucks global politician JonJon Offei-AnsahOffei-Ansah economic trend Editor DesmondEditor Davies n 2018, six of the 10 fastest-growing Desmond Davies HE fifth president of Tanzania John Deputy Editor economiesMagufuli’s in the untimely world were death in on March Africa,17 has according reverberated to the notWorld just Bank, in his ContributingAngela Cobbinah Editors with Ghana leading the pack. With Tcountry but across the African continent. For the last few weeks of his life, the IGDP growth for the continent projected to ContributingStephen Williams Editor president of the largest country in East Africa both in size and human population accelerate to four per cent in 2019 and 4.1 Prof. Toyin Falola perhad cent been in missing 2020, Africa’s from the economic public as growth a result of what had been revealed as serious Stephen Williams storyhealth continues complications. apace. Meanwhile, the World Bank’s 2019 Doing Business Index Director,Contributors Special Projects revealsHis relatively that five short of thetenure 10 inmost-improved office had beencountries remarkable are in Africa,by African and standards.one-third ofIn alljust reforms five years recorded of his globally leadership, were Magufuli’sin sub-Saharan ambitious Africa. social and economic projects JusticeMichael Lee Adoboe Orji Whatlargely makes financed the story by domestic more impressive resources, and elevated heartening Tanzania is that to thelower-middle-income growth Chief Chuks Iloegbunam –status projected in 2019, to be four broad-based years after – heis beingtook office achieved with in aGross challenging National global Per Capita – a ContributorsJoseph Kayira environment,measure of economic bucking activitythe trend. or how much is produced in the country growing JusticeZachary Lee Ochieng Adoboe Infrom the $1,020Cover Storyto $1,080 of this between edition, 2018 Dr. andHippolyte 2019 and Fofack, above Chief the $1,036 Economist threshold at the for ChuksOlu IloegbunamOjewale Africanlower middle Export-Import income. Bank (Afreximbank), analyses the factors underpinning this OladipoJoseph Okubanjo Kayira performance.Magufuli widened Two factors, the tax basein my and opinion, instituted stand measures out in Dr. to Hippolyte’sensure tax compliance analysis: Corinne Soar trade between Africa and China and the intra-African cross-border investment and ZacharyKennedy Ochieng Olilo across micro, small, and medium businesses firmly keeping the Debt to Gross Olu Ojewale infrastructureDomestic Product development. ratio under 40 percent, the lowest in the East African region. OladipoDesigner Okubanjo MuchIn his hasfirst been week said in andoffice written in aboutNovember China’s 2015, ever-deepening Magufuli halted economic all foreign foray trips into for Africa, especially by Western analysts and commentators who have been sounding Corinne Soar public servants and put approval of these trips in his office or head of civil service. Simon Blemadzie alarm bells about re-colonisation of Africa, this time by the Chinese. But empirical This move helped save the country $430 million between November 2015 to evidence paints a different picture. Designer November 2016, according to a central bank report in early 2017. Such resources Country Representatives Despiteare what the the decelerating country used global to provide growth free environment, education, enhancetrade between remuneration Africa and for Gloria Ansah Chinateachers increased and other by public14.5 per servants. cent in the first three quarters of 2018, surpassing South Africa the growth rate of world trade (11.6 per cent), reflecting the deepening economic CountryEdward RepresentativesWalter Byerley Although critics have accused him of high-handedness and suffocation of media dependency between the two major trading partners. Top Dog Media, 5 Ascot Knights freedoms, his achievements have laid a firm foundation for the country’s lasting South Africa 47 Grand National Boulevard Royal Ascot, Empiricaleconomic evidencetransformation shows and that if China’s sustained, domestic Tanzania investment is set for has take-off. become highly Edward Walter Byerley linked with economic expansion in Africa. A one percentage point increase TopMilnerton Dog Media, 7441, 5 South Ascot Africa Knights inMagufuli’s China’s domestic main legacy investment was his growth spirited is and associated fearless withfight an against average endemic of 0.6 47 Grand NationalTel: +27 (0) Boulevard 21 555 0096 Royal Ascot, percentagecorruption pointand calling increase out in ineptitude overall African in public exports. service. And, This the earned expected him economicthe MilnertonCell: +27 7441, (0) 81 South331 4887 Africa developmentnickname, “The and Bulldozer.”trade impact He of was expanding known toChinese have personally investment toured on resource-rich government Email: [email protected] Africanoffices countries, and public-funded especially projects oil-exporting to evaluate countries, performance is even morein implementation. important. Tel: +27 (0) 21 555 0096 He often sacked officials he found culpable to corruption or lethargy on the spot. Cell: +27 Ghana(0) 81 331 4887 The resilience of African economies can also be attributed to growing intra-African Email:Nana [email protected] Asiama Bekoe cross-borderOn a continent investment where corruption and infrastructure in high places development. has become A combination the norm, his of actions the Kingdom Concept Co. twoendeared factors him is accelerating to citizens of the other process African of structural countries transformationwho praised his in anti-corruption a continent Tel: +233 243 393Ghana 943 / +233 303 967 470 wheredrive. industrial output and services account for a growing share of GDP. African Nana Asiama Bekoe corporations and industrialists which are expanding their industrial footprint across [email protected] His extra-judicial sanctions drew criticism from his political opponents, but drew Kingdom Concept Co. Africa and globally are leading the diversification from agriculture into higher valueapprobation goods infrom manufacturing the majority and of Tanzanians service sectors. who Theseviewed industrial corruption champions as a cancer Tel: +233 243 393Nigeria 943 / +233 303 967 470 arekilling carrying their outcountry. transcontinental In 2016, Tanzania operations, was amongwith investment 20 countries holdings in Africa around with the [email protected] Ogbu the worst corruption and was ranked 117 out of 168 countries in Transparency globe, with a strong presence in Europe and Pacific Asia, together account for more #4 BabatundeNigeria Oduse crescent thanInternational’s 75 per cent 2015 of their Corruption combined Index. activities outside Africa. Isheri OloworaTaiwo - IsheriAdedoyin Berger, Lagos AHis survey biggest of legacy30 leading project, emerging the Tanzanian African Standardcorporations Gauge with Railway, global isfootprints on its second and Tel: +234 803 670 4879 MV Noble,[email protected] Press House, 3rd Floor combinedphase right revenue now resting of more on thethan crest $118 of billionuplifting shows projections, that they such are as active electric in severaltrains 27 Acme Road, Ogba, Ikeja, Lagos industries,and well-managed including costs. manufacturing (e.g., Dangote Industries), basic materials, telecommunications (e.g., Econet, Safaricom), finance (e.g., Ecobank) and oil Tel: +234Kenya 806 291 7100 On the personal integrity front, Magufuli made his salary public in 2017. He said at and gas. In addition to mitigating risks highly correlated with African economies, [email protected] Mwangi the time that he earned 9 million Tanzanian shillings (about $3,883) per month, an these emerging African global corporations are accelerating the diversification of Aquarius Media Ltd,Kenya PO Box 10668-11000 sourcesamount ofthat growth would and be foundreducing utterly the laughableexposure ofin regularcountries political to adverse payrolls commodity in most Nairobi, Kenya termsparts of Africa.trade. Naima Farah RoomTel: 072022, 2nd 391 546/0773Floor West 35 41 Wing Email: [email protected] ThisBeing makes human me like very all bullish of us, Magufuliabout Africa! was not perfect. But he was, and died, a Royal Square, Ngong Road, Nairobi conviction politician. May he rest in perfect peace. Tel:©Africa +254 Briefing 729 381 Ltd 561 2 [email protected] Close, London N22 8RN AfricaUnited Briefing Kingdom Ltd 2 RedruthTel: +44Close, (0) 208 London 888 6693 N22 8RN [email protected] Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) 208 888 6693 [email protected] Contents Vol.4 No.13 March - April 2021 LEADER Are Africa’s petrostates 12 ready for economic woes as 6 the world decarbonises? COMMENT Leaders think that being 07 silent is the answer to their problems COVER STORY Ethiopia at the crossroads: the perils of For in-depth 12 narrow nationalism After the overthrow of the military Marxist-Leninist analysis on regime in 1991, competing interpretations of the historical legacy of forging the modern state, and therefore what citizenship can mean in the new republic, developments in has shaped the current crisis facing the country, writes Hibist Kassa a fast-changing 16 Conflict over water resources 17 continent ANALYSIS Is Libya moving slowly to stability? 17 As the parliament sitting in Sirte approved a new Government of National Unity this month after years of war and division, Libyans appear to be united in their determination to hold elections in December that 18 could bring national reconciliation, writes a Special Correspondent Kenya: the ironies of ethnicity Testimonials from some of our online subscribers: Although the 2010 Constitution, to some extent 18 We wish to compliment the Africa Briefing Magazine for its insight and value added stories from the Last acknowledges the right of ethnic groups to pursue their aspirations within the state, the elites of the Frontier. From a Scandanavian view the quality of material presented on time gives us the edge for investment dominant groups, while publicly continuing to and business purposes. Keep up the good work. Jon Marius Hoensi MD Marex Group, Norway. oppose such a system, privately use ethnic-based interests to further their political ambitions, writes I write in conjunction with JIC Holdings and its CEO, Mark Anthony Johnson, to commend Africa Briefing on Kennedy Olilo its coverage of the important political, economic and social news and events in Africa. Its coverage of a wide range of topics is very impressive. I look forward to future editions. David W Gouldman, Consultant, BUSINESS & ECONOMY JIC Holdings, United Kingdom. Africa Briefing is an interesting new project. The publication helps fill the gap in business and economy- Light at the end of the tunnel for Africa’s economic recovery focused African journalism. Africa BriefingNews, combines analysis a good and news forecast sense with crisp copy to the reader rapid 28 Analysts* at the African Development Bank say the region’s recovery from recession due to the coronavirus pandemic immersion into what is important in economies across the continent. James Schneider, Editorial Director, hinges on a number of factors, including the disease itself, financial inflows and geopolitical tensions New African Magazine, London, UK. 2 Redruth Close, London N22 8RN, United Kingdom

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Testimonials from some of our online subscribers: We wish to compliment the Africa Briefing Magazine for its insight and value added stories from the Last Frontier. From a Scandanavian view the quality of material presented on time gives us the edge for investment and business purposes. Keep up the good work. Jon Marius Hoensi MD Marex Group, Norway. I write in conjunction with JIC Holdings and its CEO, Mark Anthony Johnson, to commend Africa Briefing on its coverage of the important political, economic and social news and events in Africa. Its coverage of a wide range of topics is very impressive. I look forward to future editions. David W Gouldman, Consultant, JIC Holdings, United Kingdom. Africa Briefing is an interesting new project. The publication helps fill the gap in business and economy- focused African journalism. Africa BriefingNews, combines analysis a good and news forecast sense with crisp copy to the reader rapid immersion into what is important in economies across the continent. James Schneider, Editorial Director, New African Magazine, London, UK. 2 Redruth Close, London N22 8RN, United Kingdom

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Email: [email protected] LEADER Are Africa’s petrostates ready for economic woes as the world decarbonises?

N February, Carbon Tracker Today, there are 30 free zones with treatment could pay for 18 new centres of warned that as the world continued tax benefits, customs duty breaks and healthcare excellence in the country. Ito reduce its emission of carbon first-class infrastructure that are constantly In 2020, the government’s health dioxide (CO2), oil and gas producing attracting major global businesses that are budget for a population of 200 million states could see a shortfall of $9 trillion in not hamstrung by red tape and which now was a mere $5.40 for each Nigerian’s their income over the next 20 years. Of the make up 20 per cent of foreign investment healthcare. There is no detailed healthcare 400 million people living in the 19 worst in Dubai. Companies in the free zones plan for the next five years while hard- affected countries where declining fossil employ over 140,000 people and generate pressed Nigeria doctors are pushing for fuel revenues could see total government more than $80 billion in non-oil revenue, promised government legislation to stop income fall by at least 20 per cent, half which constitutes 21 per cent of Dubai’s public officials from seeking medical of them live in Nigeria, where a 70 per GDP. treatment abroad. cent drop in oil revenues would cut total This is what Africa’s petrostates should There is no gainsaying that oil prices government income by a third. be doing now: creating the infrastructure will continue to fall as global supplies In the case of Angola, with a that should see them stay afloat when oil dwindle and the world embraces green population of 33 million, it could lose over revenues dwindle. But we see Nigerians, energy. By 2030 electric cars are expected 40 per cent of government earnings. The from an equally oil rich country, flocking to be the norm. They would not need financial shortfall could lead to cuts in to Dubai and spending millions of dollars petrol to fuel them. public services and job losses. buying consumer goods and property. The boss of Swedish carmaker Volvo, Dubai estate agents actually have offices in Africa’s petrostates rely heavily Hakan Samuelsson, has warned that on oil revenues, but these are now Lagos and Abuja. being threatened by binding conditions on countries to halt the rise in global temperature by cutting back on the use of Before the Covid-19 fossil fuels. It is, therefore, time for those African countries that have frittered away their oil wealth to seriously start thinking ‘ pandemic, Nigerians were of diversifying their economies before it is too late. said to be spending $1 billion Nigeria, the leading oil producer in Africa, has famously squandered its a year on health tourism income from oil through corruption and unaccountability over the last 40 years. The same can be said about Angola, the Why can’t Nigerians emulate Dubai’s there would be not need for fossil fuel continent’s second highest oil producer, economic feat? Nigerians are spendthrifts, engines in the future. “By’ the end of the where the family of former President throwing money at goods and services decade, I’m convinced that there will be Eduardo dos Santos family, especially the that could easily be provided locally if oil no customers who really want an internal daughter, Isabel, had a firm grip on the revenue was put into good use. combustion engine.” country’s oil wealth. Take for example medical tourism. So, what Nigeria and the other African Before the Covid-19 pandemic, Nigerians It is time for these African oil petrostates should do sharpish is to adopt were said to be spending $1 billion a producing countries to follow in the economic measures to plug the expected year on receiving medical treatment footsteps of the petrodollar Gulf States hole in their finances. For those African abroad. Again, the Dubai connection. that also used to be profligate with their countries that are now trying to raise Hospitals there and in Saudi Arabia are oil wealth. But they soon realised that revenue by offering to sell undeveloped advertising for patients in Nigeria now that the fossil fuel would not last forever and oil blocks, there would not be any takers, the UK, the US and India, the preferred as such began investing in industries and given that the prognosis for this fossil fuel destinations for medical treatment by tourism. middle class Nigerians, have introduced does not look good. Uganda has already Dubai is a case in point. It discovered Covid-19 restrictions. failed in this regard. oil in 1966, but it has accounted for just This money could have been better With young and restive populations, one per cent of its earnings. This, though, spent on providing world class medical these countries would do well to put in did not stop the authorities from taking a facilities for all Nigerians. Indeed, figures place urgent economic measures to avoid bold step to diversify Dubai’s economy, show that about $300 million of the $1 instability and social unrest as the global using the income from oil. billion spent annually on foreign medical economy is decarbonised. AB

6 AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 COMMENT Leaders think that being silent is the answer to their problems Desmond Davies

HE news blackout that is one of the reasons why social and or whether he is actually in the country. surrounded the disappearance political tensions abound in Africa. If the Cameroonians do not know whether they from public view of the late government does not deliver timely and are coming or going when it comes to T relevant information – in an environment Biya. Tanzanian President, John Magufuli, that already has restrictions on official before his death was officially announced The civil war in Sierra Leone would communications – citizens would not in March was a classic case of how African not have been as bad as it turned out to be in a position to decide how they and be had the government been frank about governments withhold information, which the government should tackle the social, the scale of the insurgency. Instead, for could lead to discontent and uncertainty economic and political problems staring many years there was disinformation in their countries. The irony of the them in the face. about the conflict that allowed the rebel behaviour of the shameless Tanzanian In most African countries, journalists revolutionary United Front (RUF) to turn government news gatekeepers who kept find it difficult to corroborate news. Not an initial matter of local political score- such an important information from the surprisingly, inaccurate stories spread settling into a full-blown war. For many public – and not just in Tanzania but also widely, fuelling destructive rumours before years the government even denied the globally – was that Magufuli himself was a official sources can counter them. existence of rebel leader Foday Sankoh. Sierra Leoneans bought into this canard populist leader who reached out regularly Nigeria is another country that at a serious cost to life, property and the to citizens. government information to the public is rationed. Facing an insurgency by Boko economy. He was known to stop and speak to Haram Islamists and conflict between It would appear that African politicians ordinary Tanzanians during his drive in the herdsmen and farmers, the government take pleasure in running weak information countryside – much to the concern of his would do well to let Nigerians know what systems that do not help citizens. Is security detail. But he was doing what any is being done to deal with these troubling it because they want to cover up their leader is expected to do: communicating issues. But public information in the lack of legitimacy, accountability and regularly with the people so that they are country is in short supply. transparency? It looks like it. aware of what the government is doing on their behalf. Take, for example, President Indeed, the capacity of governments to Having being out of the public view for 11 days, and after opposition leader Tundu Lissu told the media that Magufuli Nigerian government spokesmen was in a hospital in Nairobi, a government spokesman warned against publishing were quick to resort to the unverified information about the president. ‘ That was rather rich coming from a Trumpian oxymoron: “fake news”’ government spokesman who should have provided credible information on the whereabouts of Magufuli in the first place. Muhammadu Buhari’s disappearance from communicate effectively with citizens has To add insult to injury, Justice and Nigeria in 2017. He was out of the country been accepted by communication experts Constitutional Affairs Minister Mwigilu for 103 day, apparently receiving medical as a function of modern governance.’ The Nchemba came up with a flippant treatment in London for an undisclosed World Bank notes: “The willingness and statement, which summed up the inanity of malady at the expense of taxpayers. ability to speak with citizens must be coupled with a willingness and ability government communications in Africa. He When those whose tax funded his trip said Magufuli was neither a TV presenter to listen to them, incorporate their needs began asking questions, and the media and preferences into the policy process, nor a leader of a jogging club, so he did started “speculating” about the president, not need to publish selfies of himself every and engage local patterns of influence and government spokesmen were quick to trusted source of information.” day. Really? resort to the Trumpian oxymoron: “fake What African leaders do not realise is It is important that when government news”. For us in the media, news is officials and elected representatives that a problem shared is a problem halved. verifiable information published in the If they think that keeping silent about communicate with citizens, this should public interest. If it is fake, then it cannot issues affecting citizens would solve their be done in a manner that does not lead to be verified. countries’ problems, they must be greatly ambiguity or tension. For instance, mood Paul Biya is another elusive leader mistaken. plays an important part in how messages that Cameroonians have grown tired of are received and interpreted. In the final analysis, political trying to find out what he is up to. There stability is dependent on governments Thus, the failure of African is no proper information coming from communicating timely and reliable governments to take this into consideration the government about Biya’s activities information to citizens. AB

AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 7 COMMENT COMMENT

Nigerians have a new political system: comacracy, government of the comatose Chuks Iloegbunam

igerians have a saying: Soap’s million people was thrust into a pair of none. He failed the Command and Staff lather never peppers the blighted hands. The country’s current College exams and all other military Neyes of someone bathing in searing circumstances have brought to the examinations.” (PSC means Passed Staff a river. They have another saying: Grass fore the people’s power of recall. They College; FSS means Forces Service Star; never grows under the feet of a sane man. now recall that in 2007, when both men the mni stands for Member, Nigerian Yet, in 2015, Nigerians, in all of their occupied antipodal political platforms, Institute.) wisdom, allowed the lather of antiseptic soap to blind them, and allowed elephant grass to grow under their feet. They moan and groan today, partly because of In 2015, Nigerians, in all of their unenviable lot, but mainly because ‘ there’s little indication as to when relief their wisdom, allowed the will attend their self-inflicted hubris. Like Sisyphus, they are trying to heave to the lather of antiseptic soap mountaintop the weighty political stupor that coerced them to settle for an electoral non-choice. Predictably, they have been to blind them registering woeful failures and crushing The chickens since came home to disappointments. Bola Tinubu, a former Governor of roost. Which is why Dr. Matthew Hassan Ironically, there is cause for cheer. Lagos State, and one of the financiers Kukah,’ the Catholic Bishop of Sokoto By their astonishing myopia, Nigerians of Buhari’s presidential campaign, had Diocese, has a jeremiad on the Buhari have introduced an innovation to political prophesied that “Muhammadu Buhari is epoch: an agent of destabilisation, an ethnic bigot science. The Greek gave the world “Against the backdrop of our and religious fanatic who, if given the democracy. The Americans gave the endless woes, ours has become a nation chance, would ensure the disintegration world the airplane. England gave the wrapped in desolation. The prospects of of the country. His ethnocentrism would world rugby. South Africa gave the world a failed state stare us in the face: endless jeopardise Nigeria’s national unity.” Nelson Mandela. India gave the world bloodletting, a collapsing economy, Mahatma Gandhi. Nigerians have now Nigerians now recall also the warning social anomie, domestic and community presented to the world a novel political on Buhari’s intellectual diffidence. Hadn’t violence, kidnappings, armed robberies system: Comacracy – Government of the Governor Nasir el-Rufai announced when etc. Ours has become a house of horror comatose, by the bellicose and for the he pretended to be President Obasanjo’s with fear stalking our homes, highways, lachrymose. The personification of this greatest apostle that “Pa Muhammadu cities, hamlets and entire communities. Comacracy is Buhari. Buhari is the only Nigerian Senior Military The middle grounds of optimism have In 2015, Nigerians elected Buhari, Officer that failed all his senior military continued to shift and many genuinely a man who 30 years earlier had led a examinations in the history of the Nigerian ask, what have we done to the gods? Does repressive military junta, their president, Military. If you check the official names of Nigeria have a future? Where can we find not minding the pervasive understanding officers the like of Babangida, Idiagbon, hope?” Diya, Danjuma, Akhigbe, Abdusalami, that he was patently incapable of holding Nobel laureate Wole Soyinka fronted Aikhomu, etc., you will see suffix, FSS, down the job of a local government Buhari’s election in 2015, a lamentable chairman. Thus, the fate of nearly 200 PSC, mni. Pa Muhammadu Buhari has

8 AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 COMMENT

mistake he will forever regret, and a topic condition in perspective: rampage that are going on? The President he should spare the time to write on before “Where is the Commander-in-Chief that I want should not be a decorative his final curtain falls. Astonishingly, of the Federal Republic of Nigeria?” He president; he shouldn’t be a portrait that Professor Soyinka had compared Buhari asked. “There is a clear lacuna in the will be occasionally brought out for photo to a reformed President Mattieu Kerekou presidency. You can’t convince me to the ops. What you are seeing is a nation in of Benin Republic. Today, the playwright’s contrary. Buhari sought power for 12 years crisis and in peril, a nation that is lacking song has drastically changed: – 2003, 2007, 2011 and 2015. He wanted in direction and leadership. You cannot “Catastrophically belated, it has to be president by all means. Nigerians be commanding from your bedroom. You have to command from the front, that was what Buhari promised. But he is not even leading from the back.” Against the backdrop of Ayi Kwei Armah, the inimitable Ghanaian prose stylist parodied such our endless woes, ours a dismal condition in his novel The Beautyful Ones Are Not Yet Born ‘ (Heinemann, London; 1969): has become a nation “The (ever intoxicated) Attorney General opened his red eyes from time to wrapped in desolation time and chanted: ‘Stage One – The Mood Jocose. finally emerged from the constricted throat gave him a chance in 2015. Despite his Stage Two – The Mood Morose. of a government that seemed unaware failures, the mandate was renewed in Stage Three – The Mood Bellicose. that its very corporate existence was 2019. But as at today, we are being ruled Stage Four – The Mood Lachrymose. under strangulation. Many in this nation by proxy. Garba Shehu is the one’ that Stage Five – The Mood Comatose.’ have had the bitter cause to conclude that issues offensive press statements everyday, governance had indeed expired, its elected telling us what the President is saying, as “Then the Attorney fell down. He was head in a trance.” if the President is incapacitated. Where is in the final stage himself.” [p73]. Buhari in a trance? Coma begets the President of Nigeria? Our Air Force The corollary speaks to a comatose Comacracy! It surely requires some men were involved in an unfortunate air Nigeria. Chinua Achebe neatly captured spelling out. Dr. Farooq Kperogi is a mishap. They were buried; the President it. “This is an example of a country US-based Nigerian Associate Professor was not there. Our troops are being that has fallen down,” he declared over of Journalism. On January 18, 2019, he slaughtered in the North. The president two decades ago when things were, authored an opinion piece that is apposite: “On November 23, 2018, I tweeted that a doctor who has met Buhari told Soyinka had compared Buhari me that Buhari shows telltale symptoms of dementia (of which Alzheimer’s to a reformed President Mattieu disease is a type), which is characterized by repetitiveness, unawareness, mental deterioration, impaired memory, ‘Kerekou of Benin Republic. diminished quality of thought, slurred speech, and finally complete helplessness. Today, the playwright’s song A non-medical person whose dad has dementia and who has met Buhari in the has drastically changed recent past had earlier told me Buhari’s dementia was worse than her dad’s was. is not at their funerals. When last did the She was concerned that Nigeria had no President talk to Nigerians? When last did comparatively speaking, still heavenly. president. She’s right. Buhari barely has “It has collapsed. This house has fallen.” any awareness of his existence, much less we see the President grant a media chat? The renowned novelist’s opinion lent part the requirements of being president.” When last did we see the President speak ’ with the victims of kidnaps? When last of the title to American journalist Karl Nigeria is clearly in stasis. Recently Maier’s 2000 book, This house has fallen: on Arise Television, a lawyer, Mr. Inibehe did we see the President personally taking NIGERIA IN CRISIS. Effiong, put the worrisome national responsibility for the killings and the AB

AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 9 COMMENT

The challenge for Africa –

jobs for the boys and girls Ade Sawyerr

“ ducation is that whole system An important issue however is how compensated on an output related basis of human training within to link education to skills and jobs, with staged payment based on how many Eand without the schoolhouse examining what would work in the local people are placed or go on to further walls, which molds and develops men and area as a way of stemming the large drift education. women” WEB Du Bois Talented Tenth of young people to the cities who end up in The purpose of this type of programme There are few options left for Africa to unskilled jobs. is to operate in the local area to provide a develop and catch up with the rest of the An option is to link students to work higher level of skills linked to an employer world. For as long as we do not control experience with local employers at but the underlying assumption is that the price of commodities and for as long different sectors and levels before they education is lifelong and young people as we are satisfied with exchanging our finish their secondary school education, get competency-based certification and natural resources in the primary form for when they are in college and when they accreditation of their skills that are needed finished products, we will lag the rest of are in university. There is a system of for their local area. the world. Yet we have resources that apprenticeships that are either employer- The assumption underlying this may be going that way too, our human based or college-based at the end of which scheme is that education is lifelong, and resources. they get their National Qualifications people can join in at whatever level they With a more youthful population than based on the job competency approach. wish. The purpose of these programmes is the rest of the world, our governments This approach also enables the participants that they explore partnerships at the local must focus on innovative measures an opportunity to decide whether they level to train young people with high level that will provide jobs for the youth, want to continue in full-time academic certificated and accredited for the skills sustainable high value skilled based jobs, education or pursue a professional that are needed in the local area. where possible, that will help transform qualification. I have observed employment schemes our resources onto high-value products The key ‘actors’ in this mix are the in Africa that have not worked mainly marketed within the growing population young people, the employers and trainer/ because they are mired in corruption and in Africa and ultimately to the rest of the placement partners who are funded by the the objectives of the programmes are world. government. to properly articulated. Some of these At the heart of these measures must The employer is initially recruited, programmes have nebulous targets that are be education; a system that will endow and they come up with the objectives that unrealistic. The missing link in most of our students with a breadth of knowledge drive the programme with the minimum these programmes however is that though combined with skills that would enable standards for competence and they then they are government-inspired and well- them to transition into the world or work. become involved in the programme at the founded, they flounder because there is The idea is not about specialisation selection of the candidate stage. They very little co-design and co-delivery with at an early age or vocational against the main actors. professional, or sciences against the arts. are further incentivised by the fact that The finest schools are those that give not only do they get to select the most Whilst our problems in education equal attention to the sciences, the arts, promising and capable candidates for the are expressed as lack of science and the crafts, the technologies, the sports and get the young people to provide them technology and the need for high-level the large doses of extracurricular activities with unpaid work during the period of the skills to do great things, there are so many and hobbies. The best system is one the programme. things that we need to fix in our local exposes them to all, that leads them into The young person is motivated by the areas, the villages and smaller town where work experience with employers but one guaranteed interview with the employer the mass of the people should reside and I that is flexible enough to enable them to be that would lead to a real job. They gain contend that if we are not able to fix local provided instruction in several fields with a skill but have an option to take the areas job creation schemes well, we will an opportunity for them to decide what job if offered or continue with further not be able to tackle the situation in the they want to do. their education. The placement/trainer is cities. AB

Ade Sawyerr is a management consultant at Equinox Consulting who works on enterprise, employment and community development issues within the inner city and black and minority communities in Britain. He comments on social, economic and political issues and can be contacted at www.equinoxconsulting.net or [email protected].

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C.E.O President. Room 814, 578 Tian Bao Lu, Shanghai, Peoples Republic of China E-Mail: [email protected] Mr, Felix Ji phone: 86-13501786280 COVER STORY Ethiopia at the crossroads: the perils of narrow nationalism

After the overthrow of the military Marxist-Leninist regime in 1991, competing interpretations of the historical legacy of forging the modern state, and therefore what citizenship can mean in the new republic, has shaped the current crisis facing the country, writes Hibist Kassa

TATE craft in Africa navigates a very delicate minefield of Scompeting interests that contest the legitimacy of the state from within the continent itself, which remains fragmented, and from external forces. It is within this broader context that Ethiopia also sits, while at the same time injecting into this picture its own indigenous process of forging a modern state out of the belly of the thousands of years of history of feudalism. After the overthrow of the military Marxist-Leninist regime in 1991, competing interpretations of the historical legacy of forging the modern state, and therefore what citizenship can mean in the new republic, has shaped the current crisis facing Ethiopia. It is unlike in Cote d’Ivoire, the former shining star of West Africa, which was ripped to its core by Prme Minster Abiy Ahmed in the eye of the storm civil war over the question: “Who is an Ivorian?” Yet, Ethiopia is a case of a country that organised warriors and the peasants to fight Ethiopia, on the other hand, is has not been colonised. The battle of Adwa for land and freedom for Ethiopia and the confronted with an ethno-nationalist in 1896, of which this year marks 125 black world. inspired rejection of Ethiopia as an idea, years since that triumph, decisively ended Meanwhile, the Tigrayan elite and and with it the Pan-Ethiopia vision. The the Italian invasion of Ethiopia and secured people who had historically affirmed their crisis that Ethiopia faces therefore provides the self-worth, self-reliance and freedom autonomy, and had been a significant force insight into a challenge of the state and of the country and ended the tide of the in forging the modern state, began to lose forging the social contract in Africa. Scramble for Africa. a strong grip on power at the centre of the Prof Patricia McFadden, an African It was a historical victory of world Empire. It is from this point that there was feminist intellectual, makes the point that significance, with the resounding defeat a sense of marginalisation and brewing the post-colonial condition in Africa, and of a European force on the continent in discontent that created fertile conditions the rest of the global South for that matter, the age of Empire. Under their astute for ethnic mobilisation. has centred on the question of citizenship leadership, Emperor Menelik II and These tensions took concrete form and entitlements that come with that. Empress Taitu were able to forge a united after the overthrow of the monarchy in Whether it has to do with women’s rights, front. Notable was General Alula from 1974 by revolutionary youth, students and socio-economic inequalities, inequality Tigray who was particularly distinguished workers. Without a significant political on the basis of race, caste, ethnicity, in his own right by providing world class force able to fill the political vacuum, the sexuality and ability, contestations arise military leadership. army stepped in and in the heady days of out of claims to citizenship, and attempts Empress Taitu, who also had Tigrayan the Cold War only found support from the to reconstitute or contest the social contract heritage, was a fierce and strategic thinker. then Soviet Union and Cuba. The military with the state. Feudal lords across ethnicities united and was an authoritarian regime against which

12 AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 COVER STORY

Ethiopia is still governed by the Constitution crafted by the TPLF on ethnic lines urban and rural struggles were waged by ignores the complex intermingling across language/cultural groups as oppressors revolutionaries of various socialist and ethnicity and religion, migration patterns and others as victims to succeed, history Marxist tendencies. and the fluid nature of cultural identities itself has to be simplified. Lineages which By the time the Derg was overthrown throughout the thousands of years of complicate narratives of ethnically pure in 1991, the Tigrayan Peoples Liberation Ethiopia’s history. identities and relations of domination are Front (TPLF) dominated the new Instead, there is a drive towards erased, ignored or denied. government and rebuilt the state structure simple narratives, where some are labelled This quest for ethnic purity then under a federalist system on ethnic lines. victims and others oppressors who position takes a sinister form when connected To be fair, the TPLF had its own debates themselves superior in solely on the basis to relationships to land and livelihoods. on what the future of Tigray in Ethiopia of language/ethnicity. The argument is It becomes permissible to criminalise could look like. that people who identify as Amhara and, migration and fluidity of identities in From an emphasis on the rights of for that matter, have Amharic as a mother languages and cultural identities. The Tigrayans in a democratic united Ethiopia tongue (which even after 1991 remains result of this is in its most horrendous to the right to secede entirely, a wide a working language for the Federal form to enforce segregation on the basis of spectrum of views existed. By the time government) were dominant politically and ethnicity, for which genocide becomes the the TPLF had entered the government, the economically at the expense of other ethnic ultimate tool. ethno-nationalists had won the debate. groups. Grace Idahosa and Louis D. Vincent, The new Constitution recrafted regions This dominance is asserted socially, in a 2014 paper on xenophobia in access on the basis of ethnicity and entrenched and also in landholding arrangements. to healthcare in South Africa cites Giorgio in the new Constitution autonomy and the right to secede. Regional banks were set up on the basis of ethnic groups. By the time the TPLF had entered the National identification cards stated one’s ethnicity. An eerie reminder of government, the ethno-nationalists Rwanda prior to the 1994 genocide. ‘ had won the debate So, what was the logic behind the radical reforms in the governance system? Underlying this is a thesis that there This perspective does not necessarily Agamben and his conception of power are various kinds of colonialism, and integrate class analysis and by doing so and sovereignty.’ For Agamben, the state, Ethiopia contained within it a variation of does not enable a deeper analysis of the by its actions or omissions, can relegate colonialism. reproduction of inequality which has some to “bare life”, a condition where This is at best a false equivalency and political implications. whether they live or die or are killed, has an over-simplification of state craft. It also For this narrative of positioning some no consequence.

AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 13 COVER STORY

Take, for instance, the murder of things public private partnerships and rapid which need to be addressed through social Baraka Nafari, a PhD student from privatisation of state-owned enterprises. investment, especially with healthcare and Tanzania studying in South Africa. He The breadth of Abiy’s Medemer requires education investments. was deliberately run over by a taxi driver robust and critical engagement on its own All these cannot be achieved outside of close to the University of Johannesburg in terms. improving productivity in a predominantly February 2018. The justification is that he However, when it comes to the agrarian society. For example, on land was ‘kwerekwere’ a derogatory term for forms of mutual interdependence and occupancy in Ethiopia, factors which African foreigners. intermingling that exist, these relationships influence smallholder farmers in investing The taxi driver was initially charged critically shape fluid and evolving in land has more to do with security of with driving without a licence. This not identities. tenure, and the gendered nature of labour only a horrific affirmation of impunity but also Baraka’s relegation to “bare life”. Is there a progressive case for ethno- The new Constitution recrafted nationalism? Walleign Mekonnen, writing regions on the basis of ethnicity and on the Question of Nationalities in Ethiopia ‘ in 1969, when the monarchy under Haile entrenched autonomy and the right Selassie was still intact, argued: “The revolution can start anywhere. It can even to secede be secessionist to begin with, as long as it is led by the progressive forces – the peasants and the workers – and has the A consequence of applying concepts segmentation. The role of land grabs final aim the liberation of the Ethiopian that are not appropriate is that’ we are left by corporate investors in displacing mass with due consideration to the with an ethnonationalist framework that smallholder farmers amplifies these economic and cultural independence of all does not actually answer the question concerns. the nationalities.” of how inequalities are reproduced in Today, we hear gruesome reports of He draws from Lenin in making the Ethiopia. Although regional/provincial rape and the Axum massacre in Tigray. case: “People resort to secession only disparities do occur, this unevenness is These reports were initially flagged by when national oppression and national intrinsic to capitalist development with a member of the Federal military and antagonisms make joint life absolutely social and economic consequences of subsequently confirmed by investigations intolerable and hinder any and all economic intercourse. In that case the interests of the freedom of the class struggle will be best served by Secession.” He goes on to refer to the London International Socialist Congress of 1896 where the Bolsheviks attended, “This Congress declares that it stands for the full right of all nations to self-determination and expresses its sympathy for the workers and peasants of every country now suffering under the yoke of military, national or other absolutism.” The extreme authoritarian character of the military dictatorship combined with the historical power struggles in principle and spirit was what inspired armed struggle against the Derg, which was itself a nationalist Marxist-Leninist military regime. What had in effect been done was to impose on the Ethiopian context concepts and categories that had been thought appropriate for the Russian context. Nations and nationalities are too rigid to capture the complexity of people to actually relate, engage and self-identify. The Medemer philosophy of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in part speaks to this, while also integrating among other There are gruesome reports of rape and the Axum massacre in Tigray

14 AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 COVER STORY led by the Ministry of Women’s Affairs and needed for those violated and support for of political parties. Ethiopia has a lot to the Attorney General of Ethiopia. their families. It is absolutely important learn from the rest of Africa. McFadden The previously stable region, which that violence against women, massacres, reflecting on the Zimbabwean women’s was the base of the ruling party clique, has killings and torture in this conflict is movement provides important guidance. been the focus of Federal troops, in the first not instrumentalised in any way to The autonomous organising of women instance against the provincial army and either justify sanctions that will worsen who also learned from strategies deployed militia, among whom, it was reported by conditions on the ground or to be covered in the global North and South sharpened eyewitnesses, were children. up if government forces or allies are found their engagements with the state. The After Mekele was taken over, the true cost of the war is being understood; the extent of the destruction of transport and For political conditions to be communication infrastructure; farmers who have had to abandon their fields enabling, there is a need for urgent during harvest time; internally displaced ‘ reform of political parties populations and refugees; all needing support to survive and rebuild their lives. Ethiopian feminist/women’s movement The need for humanitarian intervention to be perpetrators. has a layer of excellent researchers of to support those affected has been If there is any semblance of the rule progressive outlook.’ Forming important amplified while parts of the Tigray region of law, and if a genuine social contract spaces such as Setaweet for raising remain unstable and inaccessible. While between all who reside within Ethiopia’s consciousness and focusing on empirical the Federal government has been sending borders is to be forged, building a practice research to inform policy proposals, what food supplies, and more recently with the of integrity is the place to start. The remains to plug into this are movement World Food Programme, the scale of the manner in which these cases are handled building strategies. trauma in Tigray is deeply disturbing as is is a litmus test to show whether the state the trauma in other parts of the country. The Yellow Flower movement has is capable to hold itself and its allies to shown in powerful ways what forms of It is crucial to determine who the account. To do this, diplomatic tightropes creative organising can take. Civil society perpetrators are, for them to be brought will have to be walked to ensure justice. in Ethiopia should take a lesson from to justice. Psychosocial care is urgently Another litmus test is the upcoming these forms of organising and strategies June 21 elections. Ethiopia is still governed of engagement with the state to also build by the Constitution crafted by the TPLF on their own legitimacy within society instead ethnic lines. Many political parties are also of waiting for the state to create a space at still organised on the basis of ethnicity. the table that may never materialise. While interdependence is the It is also important to remember prevailing way people relate, varied the 1896 Adwa victory for the black interest groups and militia at the provincial and African world is yet to be firmly and local level are invested in the ethno- secured today since external threats to nationalist project, and seek to claim autonomy and freedom remain entrenched. autonomy by displacing ethnic minorities. Militarism, and combined crisis of the It is at this level that a high stakes political ongoing pandemic, economy, environment, battle is being waged, at the cost of those climate change and deepening inequalities reduced to “bare life”. The exercise of persist, eroding even the social sovereignty of the state, either by inaction reproduction of life. or omission, may have enabled a climate It is in the midst of these crises ridden of impunity which guarantees continued conditions that there has also been an political instability. upsurge in right-wing populism, and with Ethiopia is truly at the crossroads. it an assertion of narrow nationalism. In ideal conditions, a referendum will be Without the spirit of Adwa guiding appropriate to decide whether to keep Ethiopia to secure and forge the society it Article 39 of the Constitution, which wants, there is little hope of building the permits among other things, the right to egalitarian society that the students and succession and organising governance workers of the 1974 revolution dreamed institutions on the basis of ethnicity. the new Republic could become. But for political conditions to be It not, this would fade away and enabling, there is a need for urgent reform another African dream unfulfilled. AB

Hibist Kassa is Senior Researcher at the Institute for African Alternatives in Cape Town, South Africa. The above is an abridged version of a paper she presented during a virtual meeting on Ethiopia organised by the Africa Institute of South Africa and the Human Sciences Research Council in February. AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 15 COVER STORY Conflict over water resources

HATVER concerns the way African countries share natural effective and reasonable than when it was may be had about mega resources. This arrangement allocates led by the Trump administration. Winfrastructure projects in nothing to Ethiopia, while Egypt is The latter had an overt bias towards Africa, the development of the Grand favoured with 66 per cent, Sudan 22 per Egypt, with Trump casually mooting Ethiopia Renaissance Dam (GERD) and cent and the remaining 12 per cent for to the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin assertion of national sovereignty over evaporation even though 87 per cent of the Netanyahu, the possibility of bombing the resources have come to embody a struggle Nile flows from Ethiopia. GERD. Whatever one thinks of Trump, to reclaim a right to self-determination. This stands against the Pan-Africanist it crudely exposed the policy bias that As Prof Mammo Muchie of the orientation of leaders such as Kwame underlies US foreign policy. University of Addis Ababa often reminds Nkrumah of Ghana, Egypt’s Gamal Abdel us, this never has to be a zero-sum game. Nasser and Julius Nyerere of Tanzania There is a clear need for unbiased and There is always an option for regional who sought to suppress divisions on fair deliberation to ensure an agreement strategic agreements that can ensure ethnic and religious lines. They promoted based on a regional strategy of natural fair distribution of water resources and solidarity among African peoples and resource management. Felix Tshisekedi, innovative technology to ensure, for nations in forging the optimism of the post- President of the Democratic Republic instance, that farmers in Egypt, Ethiopia independence period. of Congo, is now chairing the AU. He and Sudan are able to irrigate their The African Union’s role in mediating will have to work through the Peace and farmlands. in this crisis, under the stewardship of Security Council to ensure some degree of Egypt cannot legitimately insist on a South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, continuity. colonial agreement continuing to define has been widely recognised as more Hibist Kassa AB

The Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam

16 AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 ANALYSIS Is Libya moving slowly to stability?

As the parliament sitting in Sirte approved a new Government of National Unity this month after years of war and division, Libyans appear to be united in their determination to hold elections in December that could bring national reconciliation, writes a Special Correspondent

IBYA’S new unity government has been approved less than eight Lmonths after outgoing Prime Minister Serraj and President of the House of Representatives (HoR) called for a ceasefire last August to end the war that had raged since April 2019. It was symbolic that the vote was held in the city of Sirte, which has repeatedly witnessed conflict since 2011 and until little over four years ago was controlled by ISIS. Libyans talking peace in Geneva Credit: Violaine Martin/UN Photo The new Government of National true commitment to national reconciliation the body welcomed the agreement “as Unity, which won the vote of confidence in word and in deed, for the return of all an important milestone in the Libyan with a clear majority by 132 votes to two of those who have been displaced and in political process” and urged the interim against, will be tasked with organising the exile, for the renewal of the legitimacy of leadership “to improve services and launch elections planned for December 24 this year. your institutions, and for the need to provide a comprehensive national reconciliation It comprises a three-member Presidency basic services to your people.” process”. Council and a sole Prime Minister. It was the first time that the HoR has met to approve a unity government since the crisis began when Colonel Muammar Temporary government not about power- Gaddafi was overthrown 10 years ago. sharing or dividing the cake Crucially, women have been nominated to key ministries, with human rights bodies ‘The Acting Special Representative The 15-member Council called on all hoping that more would be appointed of the UN Secretary General for Libya, parties to implement the October 2020 to senior government positions that was Stephanie Williams, said every Libyan now ceasefire agreement in full, urging UN outlined in the Roadmap, which was agreed ’ had a chance at national reconciliation and in Tunis in November last year. member states “to respect and support renewal. “This project is not about power- the full implementation of the agreement, Given the chaos that has beset Libya sharing or dividing the cake,” she said. including through the withdrawal of all for so long, Prime Minister Abd Alhamid “Rather, it is to form a temporary foreign forces and mercenaries from Libya Aldabaiba will have his work cut out as he government composed of patriots who agree without further delay”. steers the country in the coming months to shoulder and share the responsibility to to the December elections. But Libyans They also called for full compliance put Libyan sovereignty and the security, are hoping that he will overcome the with the Council-imposed arms embargo prosperity and welfare of the Libyan people challenges. by all member states, in accordance with above narrow interests and far from the the relevant resolutions. However, the Arriving at this point followed months spectre of foreign interference.” of UN-led political discussions, including UN said in a March report on the arms She said the primary task of the most recently in Geneva where a ceasefire embargo imposed on Libya since 2011 that “temporary unified executive authority” was deal was signed in October between forces it was “totally ineffective”. It mentioned to take Libya towards the “sacred goal” of loyal to the UN-recognised Government “extensive, blatant” violations by actors national elections in December. A year ago, of National Accord based in Tripoli, and including its own member states. such a vote would not have been possible, opposition forces loyal to General Khalifa Williams noted. Clearly, there is a dire need for the Haftar in the east. Under the terms of that Libyan-led ceasefire monitor force to deploy “It is a positive sign that this process – deal, all foreign fighters were expected to swiftly and act effectively to deal with your process – has inspired a high degree of leave Libya within three months. breaches of the arms embargo. Earlier in Tunis, the UN-led 74-member buy-in and enthusiasm,” she said. “While But in the end, what ordinary Libyans Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) the selection of the interim unified executive are looking for is to see the GNU maintain agreed to a Roadmap for the country, which is not an election in the traditional sense, defined the mandate of the temporary open competition is good for democracy. the momentum that will take the country executive that was voted on in Switzerland. This is the kind of competition that can only to the December elections. Indeed, the Its objective stated: “To respond to the take place when the guns are silent.” Roadmap agreed upon by the LPDF outlines aspirations and the demands of the Libyan In a Presidential Statement, issued clear steps to take in order to organise the people for a sovereign and unified Libya by the representative of the UK, the elections by the end of the year so that there and for the restoration of democracy, for a Security Council President for February, is no hitch along the way. AB

AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 17 ANALYSIS Kenya: the ironies of ethnicity

Although the 2010 Constitution, to some extent acknowledges the right of ethnic groups to pursue their aspirations within the state, the elites of the dominant groups, while publicly continuing to oppose such a system, privately use ethnic-based interests to further their political ambitions, writes Kennedy Olilo

OR most of the 57 years of Kenya’s independence, Fethnic-based politics has been ostensibly discouraged. But the bigwigs within the major ethnic groups have usually ignored this, which has significantly contributed to socio-political instability in the country. Prior to the post-election violence in 2008, Kenya was generally considered a model of peace and stability in sub- Saharan Africa, but there were clear signs then that conflict was likely in the future. In fact, since the re-introduction of multi- party politics in 1992, the country has experienced isolated ethnic clashes that peaked around general election cycles, notably in 1992, 1997, 2007 and 2017 Kenyatta’s decision to bring Odinga aboard through their 2018 handshake changed the 2022 succession scenario for Ruto In a 2005 study – Sporadic Ethnic Violence: Why Has Kenya Not Experienced warranted registration with the Registrar of members could forge new alliances. There a Full-Blown Civil War? – the authors Political Parties before the election. is a distinct feeling among opposition provided a detailed analysis of a number Nevertheless, recent political events politicians that Ruto’s route to the of likely triggers of conflict in the country. have made the succession discourse even presidency is not as clear cut as he would They considered factors such as the more intriguing. For instance, Kenyatta, want to think and as such, they too want politicisation of ethnicity, grievances in the full glare of media cameras, urged to position themselves to challenge for the associated with land ownership, especially those wishing to succeed him to take their country’s top public office. in the Rift Valley, and poverty as triggers campaign to all parts of the country. He Kenyatta finds himself in a bind. He is that could lead to conflict between various called on voters to judge the potential beholden to the National Super Alliance for groups. This later turned out to be so. One of the key sticking points regarding Kenya’s current leadership succession is the claim that President Ruto’s fears are that Kenyatta Uhuru Kenyatta has promised to back his Deputy, William Ruto, for the presidency might endorse Odinga as his in 2022 even though no documentary ‘ evidence has been produced to support successor in 2022 it. However, public statements by both politicians have given rise to suspicion that such a deal might exist. presidential candidates on the basis of its support that gave him a political lifeline their policies and character rather than when Ruto wanted to make Kenyatta a In 2017, Kenyatta and Ruto merged their political parties and which part of the lame ’duck president as he approached their two parties The National Alliance country they come from. the end of his last term. Kenyatta would (TNA) and the United Republican Party not have dealt with Ruto’s machinations (URP) to form the Jubilee Party. So, they In the meantime, principals within without the support he has received from are not actually in a coalition government the moribund opposition coalition – the opposition leaders, some of whom have with two distinct parties, which would have National Super Alliance – want the outfit declared officially dead so that previously been his bitter rivals.

18 AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 ANALYSIS

personalities are among the factors that most influence voting patterns. If, for instance, Kenyatta and Odinga were to campaign together for constitutional amendments, it is likely that they could generate substantial support for the changes they desire. In the current political environment, only an opposition movement led by Ruto could hope to match Kenyatta’s and Odinga’s influence. It would be somewhat reminiscent of the 2010 constitutional referendum, which pitted Ruto on the No side against then President Mwai Kibaki and Odinga on the Yes side. Kenyatta’s support for the new constitution at the time was rather undetermined. Even though certain features of the situation are unique to Kenya’s political culture, the East African region’s record on presidential term limits may hold lessons for the country. Three of the six East There is a claim the claim that President Uhuru Kenyatta (left) has promised to back his Deputy, William Ruto African Community (EAC) partner states (right), for the presidency in 2022 have changed their constitutions in recent But as the succession debate survival. years to remove term limits or extend incumbents’ tenures. intensifies, Kenyatta is focusing on his If the referendum fails, or the outcome Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), which of the referendum shifts against the favour In all three cases, these moves have aims to deal with electoral discrepancies of the political elites, then it could well be led to political tensions or violence, such as fraud. In this project, Kenyatta the end of political unity. particularly in Burundi and Uganda. is backed by seasoned politician Raila Nevertheless, other important players seem The scenario of Kenyatta remaining Odinga while Ruto is on the periphery. to be warming up to the idea of amending in power in some way has been a matter the Constitution through a referendum to A “BBI referendum” will be held of discussion since it was first raised expand the executive. in June to amend the Constitution to during the 2018 Labour Day celebrations make changes that will alter the political by the secretary general of the Central What then is the future of Kenya’s structural. Significantly, the referendum Organisation of Trade Unions (COTU). It democracy? The picture suggests that calls for the reestablishment of the position further gained currency in public debate political leaders will continue to be of Prime Minister plus two Deputy Prime when a local newspaper article, quoting a polarising influence regarding the Ministers. unnamed allies of the deputy president, constitutional referendum. If it does Indeed, the National Super Alliance is alleged the existence of a “Putin Group” take place, it will likely be an occasion strongly behind the BBI. But with Kenyan behind plans to keep Kenyatta in power for voters to confirm which side of the politics nothing is impossible, as personal after his second term, much as Russia’s political divide they support, as opposed to interests are everything. President Vladimir Putin had remained in a thoughtful consideration of the country’s Kenyatta’s decision to bring Odinga power by serving as prime minister from constitutional structure or its democratic aboard through their 2018 handshake 2008 to 2012. safeguards. changed the 2022 succession scenario The issue not only raises significant Analysts say that there is an urgent for Ruto. Odinga is now Kenyatta’s close constitutional questions but also puts the need for Kenyans to generate consensus on friend and a key figure in the government. spotlight on the future of the country’s the future of their democracy, a consensus Ruto’s fears are that Kenyatta might endorse Odinga as his successor in 2022, despite their supposed 2013 pact that was Ethnicity and loyalty to key political said to provide for the president to finish his two terms and then open the way for personalities are among the factors his deputy to have a go at the presidency. ‘ However, Ruto is increasingly being that most influence voting patterns side-lined by Kenyatta. He could then be forced to team up with disgruntled political that is informed and cautioned by the heavyweights who might also miss out on electoral process. Kenya’s Constitution Kenyatta’s favour. current political rhetoric and the negative allows only two terms for a president. lessons from the region. The strong determination to unite the This rule has been the political reality for ’ country under the BBI is the bond between two decades, and it is now part of Kenya’s Consequently, Kenya’s long-term the government and the opposition. political culture. Those preparing to run political stability would be dependent on a Once the relationship bears the fruit of a for the presidency in 2022 have legitimate shift to a process that would forgo ethnic successful referendum, there will be a shift expectations that Kenyatta will not be a loyalties in favour of the interest of the in political alignments. Every political candidate. state. But this could well be a big ask for player will be seeking a coalition for Kenyans at the moment. Ethnicity and loyalty to key political AB AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 19 ANALYSIS Kenya-Somalia relations: a double-edged sword

For decades, bilateral relations between Kenya and Somalia remained warm and cordial, with a large number of Somalis living, working and thriving in Kenya. But since Somalia degenerated into violence, these ties have become strained, writes Kennedy Olilo

S more and more Somalis not only to Kenya, but the Horn of Africa followed up with any serious effort to expel continue to flee the never- as a whole. Kenya was eventually forced them, given Mogadishu’s own limited Aending cycle of violence in to deploy troops to Somalia in 2009 to capacity to provide security. The Kenyan their country, many have easily fitted into counter this threat military presence has done little to secure the well-established and predominantly Kenya’s intervention was in line with Kenya from al-Shabab attacks or Somalia Somali community in Nairobi’s Eastleigh the ‘war on terror’ launched by the US in itself for that matter. In fact, violence has suburb. It has become one of the major 2001. The intervention has been fraught escalated since the intervention. centres of business in Kenya. The economic transformation of Eastleigh has brought a new level of The Kenyan military presence in competition to Nairobi, substantially Somalia has done little to secure reducing the cost of goods and services. ‘ Additionally, growing Somali investment in the city has attracted banks and other Kenya from al-Shabab attacks service-providers, demonstrating that Somali refugees are not necessarily a with claims of Kenyan forces committing Kenya has witnessed a number of burden on the state but an economic asset. human rights violations and being involved large-scale al-Shabab operations, like the According to the Kenya National in smuggling. ones in Westgate Mall in 2013, Garissa’ Bureau of Statistics, in 2019 there were The Somali government demanded that University in 2015, and Nairobi DusitD2 2.7 million Somalis out of an overall Kenyan troops leave, but this has not been Complex in 2019, which took the lives of population of 47.5 million in the country. The community has lived in Kenya before colonial rule. In the early 1900s, Somali- speaking nomads settled in what is now north eastern Kenya. The collapse of the Siad Barre regime in 1991 plunged Somalia into a state of civil war. As a result, close to a million Somalis were displaced from their homes and forced to flee across borders to neighbouring countries, especially Kenya. Armed clan-based factions battled to gain control of the country, particularly Mogadishu, but none seemed strong enough to impose its control over the country. By1995, warlords in charge of various armed factions balkanised the country into small economic enclaves and war zones. The state of lawlessness further gave rise to radical Islamism. These challenges have since posed a significant threat to peace and security Somali refugees celebrate Somali Heritage Week in Nairobi

20 AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 ANALYSIS hundreds of civilians. The armed group Somalia’s legal suit against Nairobi at the violence: “Foreign soldiers in flagrant also raided a military camp used by International Court of Justice over their breach and total disregard of international Kenyan and US soldiers in Lamu, killing maritime borders. The case begins this laws and conventions engaged in three American personnel. March. While Kenya is pushing for an out- aggressive and belligerent activities by These four massive attacks, coupled of-court settlement, the Somali government harassing and destroying properties of with other numerous smaller ones on Kenyan soil, have exposed the Kenyan government’s weak security policy, failed Both countries need a stable military strategy and inability to patrol its own borders. relationship to create a climate for Currently, the Kenya Defence Forces ‘ are working with troops from other African economic development in Somalia countries under the umbrella of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) to is resolute that the issue must go to full Kenyan citizens living in the border town ensure the country establishes a working trial at the ICJ. of Mandera.” and stable government and well-trained In the meantime, Somali leaders Tensions between the countries could’ national security apparatus. are eagerly anticipating the withdrawal escalate in 2021, given that elections are The UN has set December 2021 as of Kenyan forces from Jubaland, due to be held in Somalia later his year. the date when AMISOM will fully leave notwithstanding the looming security risks But despite tough-talking from both sides, Somalia. Nonetheless, the al-Shabaab from insurgents. The diplomatic row could many ordinary Kenyans and Somalis want Islamist group is still potent and posing a have a negative impact on the planned to see a restoration of diplomatic relations. threat to both countries. withdrawal of AMISOM. A fact-finding mission made up of The relationship between Kenya, Al-Shabaab is keenly observing the diplomats, military officers and an IGAD whose troops are stationed in Jubaland, diplomatic fallout and contemplating ways representative visited Kenya and Somalia and the Somali administration is fraught. to take advantage of this. In the end, both in January. According to the team’s report, In the 2019 presidential election, Nairobi countries stand to lose, with al-Shabaab Somalia alleged that Kenya violated its supported the candidacy of Sheikh Ahmed militants the ultimate winners. Following airspace; violated its land borders; and that Mohamed Islam (Madobe), contrary to the recent attacks in northern Kenya the Kenyan AMISOM troops abandoned their Somali government’s wish. Governor of Mandera County, Ali Roba, positions and moved on to other locations. Analysts say that Kenya’s backing for said that the militants were now occupying Somalia also accused Kenya of Madobe was a clear sign of it wanting to and controlling over 50 per cent the county. collaborating with the Jubaland Regional establish its influence in Somalia through During the 38th Inter-Governmental State by maintaining on Kenyan soil an the semi-autonomous region of Jubaland. Authority on Development (IGAD) summit armed group under the authority of Janan For the fragile government in Mogadishu, held in Djibouti last December, regional in Omar Jilo, 30kms from Mandera; the strengthening of Jubaland means the leaders discussed the difficult relationship and alleging that members of the Kenya weakening of its powers. between Kenya and Somalia. Somalia Defence Forces participated in the illegal Things have also come to a head severed diplomatic relations with Kenya sugar and coal trade in Kismayo. Kenya between the two countries following in December last year, with Mogadishu has denied all the claims. Kenyan officials insisting that the resumption of such produced satellite images that showed links would depend on the withdrawal of Somali troops massed at the border with Kenyan armed forces at the border with Kenya. Somalia. The commission said Somalia’s claims, Soldiers of the Federal Government some of which were longstanding, did of Somalia (FGS) have been camping not appear to be sufficient justification at Bula Hawa town since March 2020 to sever diplomatic ties with Kenya. after uprooting Jubaland forces loyal The commission’s report recommended to Abdirashid Hassan Abdinur, alias that more diplomatic efforts be made at Abdirashid Janan. The former Jubaland the highest level to reach reconciliation minister for security and his army crossed between the two countries. into Kenya, finding refuge in Mandera In the final analysis, both countries town. Mogadishu has accused him of need a stable relationship to create a planning to recapture Bula Hawa, claiming climate for economic development that he was getting weapons via the Somali in Somalia. There is an abundance of port city of Kismayo. resources such as fish, charcoal and banana Earlier this March, heavy fighting that Somalia needs to exploit. But these erupted in the Somali border town of resources are currently under the control of Bulohawo between Somali government al-Shabaab and other criminal enterprises troops and forces from Jubaland. The war that are thriving in the black economy. spilled over to the Kenyan side, displacing It therefore makes economic sense for many residents of Mandera town. Mogadishu to push for better links with A Kenyan government said after the Kenya. AB AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 21 ANALYSIS John Pombe Magufuli: what’s his legacy?

From infrastructure development to the suppression of political and civil rights, John Magufuli’s leadership has left a significant legacy that many are yet to fully comprehend, writes Jon Offei-Ansah

E divided opinion both at home and abroad. To his supporters, HMagufuli was one of the rare African presidents that proved his love, not just for his country Tanzania but for the whole of Africa. To them, Magufuli came to chart a different course in the African leadership, came to decolonise the minds of most African leaders and to give them the understanding that African leaders can manage their own affairs. “He was one of the selfless African leaders that came to power, and his leadership within the space of five years had been outstanding. He was re-elected last November and unfortunately he has passed Magufuli’s moniker The Bulldozer was used about his moves to reduce spending and corruption within the away, which is unfortunate for all Africans government who knew what he actually did,” said one political observer. phones had been tapped. Journalists who sought to report on the virus were reportedly hounded or faced “I humbly decline to join in the “Corona in our country has been government censure. unfortunate chorus [in the aftermath of removed by the powers of God,” Magufuli his death] that is tempted to reduce the said in a church service last year in June, “Access to information is an essential legacy of John Pombe Magufuli to only one weeks after firing the country’s fifth health part of the fight against Covid-19, yet issue – Covid-19. And even as a journalist minister who contradicted the president’s the Tanzanian government is choosing to and a member of a media house that has advice on Covid-19. censor journalists and media outlets who interacted with the rough edges of the Magufuli’s coronavirus advice ranged report on the disease,” said an Amnesty Magufuli administration, I also politely from encouraging people to take up steam International report on the government’s resist the temptation to narrow Magufuli’s therapies, to drinking ginger-lemon tea in a handling of the pandemic. legacy to his glaringly wanting democratic bid to fight the virus. Foreign media outlets that reported on and human rights credentials,” said Linus The head of the country’s laboratory the country’s pandemic situation have also Kaikai, a prominent Kenyan journalist and testing for Covid-19 was also fired after faced the government’s wrath. political commentator. the government accused the facility of Legislation introduced towards the He added: “I choose to see through the producing incorrect positive results. end of 2020 made it illegal to share news heavy stench of both pertinent attributes The Tanzania government’s full- about the pandemic, with the government for the simple reason that it could have throttled attempt to make sure that little to saying it would incite panic in the wider been worse. It could have been worse if no information got out made it an outlier population. With little in the way of Magufuli started off as an assistant cabinet in Eastern Africa, where the virus has been accurate information, most Tanzanians were minister for housing, or even worse if treated more seriously. left in the dark about what precautions they he had started off as the regular African ought to take, if any. minister for infrastructure. For a worryingly The country’s rejection of lockdowns and the prioritisation of the economy But the mass outpouring of grief in the high number of African nations, ministerial country showed how much Magufuli was appointments can be equated to an hampered the spread of information around the virus in the country, leading many to loved by the majority of Tanzanians. And invitation to an open bar party of termites the reasons are not far-fetched. hosted on a wooden pole.” doubt that the pandemic was a threat to them or whether it even existed. After taking office in 2015, Magufuli Magufuli’s detractors mainly pointed However, not everyone inside Tanzania immediately began to impose measures to to his seeming denial of Covid-19, saying curb government spending, such as barring his approach to the coronavirus wasn’t went along with the government’s approach to the pandemic. unnecessary foreign travel by government just a relatively benign attempt at ignoring officials, using cheaper vehicles and the pandemic that has struck the whole In a bid to stop the emergence of board rooms for transport and meetings world. Indeed, those that sought to raise other narratives, Magufuli’s government respectively, shrinking the delegation for awareness around the virus were arrested shut down a local TV channel for what a tour of the Commonwealth from 50 and politicians and activists believed their it said was “unbalanced” coverage of the people to 4, dropping its sponsorship of pandemic. 22 AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 ANALYSIS

a World AIDS Day exhibition in favour fraud. The new legislation also removed the construction of Tanzania Standard of purchasing AIDS medication, and the right of mining companies to resort Gauge Railway, Mfugale Flyover, Julius discouraging lavish events and parties to international arbitration. A tax dispute Nyerere Hydropower Station, Ubungo by public institutions (such as cutting the with Acacia Mining, accused of having Interchange, new Selander Bridge, budget of a state dinner inaugurating the significantly undervalued its gold Kigongo-Busisi Bridge, Huduma Bora new parliament session). Magufuli reduced production for years, finally resulted in an Za afya, Vituo Bora Za Afya, expansion his own salary from $15,000 to $4,000 per agreement: Tanzania obtained 16 percent of Port of Dar es Salaam, Dodoma Bus month. of the shares in the mines held by the Terminal, liquefied natural gas plant, water project, wind farm project, Uhuru Hospital Magufuli suspended the country’s multinational. In May 2020, Acacia Mining paid $100 million to the government to project, gold refinery plant, and Magufuli Independence Day festivities for 2015, in Bus Terminal. favour of a national clean up campaign end the dispute as a first tranche of $300 to help reduce the spread of cholera. million. Magufuli received the nickname He personally participated in the clean However, Magufuli’s critics claimed “The Bulldozer” in reference to his up efforts, having stated that it was “so this anti-corruption policy also “frightened roadworks projects, but the term was also shameful that we are spending huge investors, who now fear they will have to used about his moves to reduce spending and corruption within the government. amounts of money to celebrate 54 years deal with Tanzanian justice, and weakened Following Magufuli’s initial rounds of independence when our people are growth,” according to Zitto Kabwe, one of of cuts post-inauguration, the hashtag dying of cholera”. The cost savings were the leaders of the opposition ACT party. “#WhatWouldMagufuliDo” was used to be invested in improving hospitals and But Mark Bristow, the Chief Executive by Twitter users to demonstrate their sanitation in the country. of Acacia’s parent company Barrick, own austerity measures inspired by the On December 10 2015, more than disagreed. “Many people said your president. criticism will chase away investors … what a month after taking office, Magufuli “The ministry of infrastructure is announced his cabinet. Its size was reduced it’s done is challenge the mining industry and all of us to embark on something particularly notorious. Even here in from 30 ministries to 19 to help reduce Kenya, it is one of the fastest routes to where we win together or lose together,” costs. unexplained, boundless wealth. Yet as Bristow said, striking a somewhat assistant minister for housing, and later as In July 2016, Tanzania banned conciliatory tone. shisha smoking, with Magufuli citing minister for infrastructure, John Pombe its health effects among youth as the Infrastructure Magufuli cultivated an image of a fiercely reason. In March 2017, Tanzania banned With one of the highest economic incorruptible enforcer of his ministerial the export of unprocessed ores, in an growth rates on the African continent mandate,” Kaikai said. effort to encourage domestic smelting. In (5.8 percent in 2018 and an estimated 6 Human rights January 2018, Magufuli issued a directive percent for 2019 according to the IMF), the Magufuli’s government was accused ordering the suspension of registration Magufuli government embarked on a vast of repressing opposition to his leadership, for foreign merchant ships, following programme of infrastructure development, including laws restricting opposition recent incidents surrounding the seizure particularly rail infrastructure. The small rallies, the suspension of the Swahili- of overseas shipments of illegal goods fishing port of Bagamoyo, to which $10 language Mawio newspaper in 2016 for (particularly drugs and weapons) being billion of investment has been allocated, publishing “false and inflammatory” transported under the flag. Tanzania and is expected to become the largest port in reporting regarding the nullification of Zanzibar had gained reputations for being Africa by 2030. election results in Zanzibar, threatening to flags of convenience. In the same year, he Magufuli’s government worked on shut down radio and television stations that introduced a fee free education for all the other various infrastructure projects did not pay licence fees, and a 2018 bill government schools. targeting economic development. These requiring blogs and other forms of online Magufuli’s government amended include the addition of half a dozen Air content providers to hold government the laws governing the award of mining Tanzania planes as a way of reviving the licenses with content restrictions. A devout contracts, giving it the right to renegotiate national carrier, the expansion of Terminal Roman Catholic, Magufuli was publicly or terminate them in the event of proven III of Julius Nyerere International Airport, criticized by the Tanzania Episcopal Conference (TEC) for taking measures that suppress constitutional freedoms and, in the view of the bishops, represent a threat to national unity. On the night of March 17 2021, then Vice-President Samia Suluhu announced Magufuli had died at 6 p.m. that evening at Emilio Mzena Memorial Hospital in Dar es Salaam, where he was receiving treatment. She did not specify Magufuli’s underlying illness but said that he had suffered from chronic atrial fibrillation for more than a decade. From infrastructure development to the suppression of political and civil rights, Magufuli’s leadership has left a significant legacy that many are yet to fully The Magufuli government embarked on a vast programme of infrastructure development, particularly rail comprehend. infrastructure AB

AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 23 ANALYSIS How the aid sector marginalises women refugees

Wherever women go, they need to stand up for themselves and take leadership because no one understands the issues women from war zones face better than they do themselves, says Shima Bahre

UDANESE women are often in This is why refugee-led organisations recognise the additional barriers I face and a difficult situation when they like the one that I founded with fellow the responsibilities I carry in my daily life. Sarrive in Kampala. Many are Sudanese refugee women are so important. In Sudanese society, women are alone with their children. Most don’t speak We know the needs of Sudanese people. expected to get married, have children, take English – the language you need to start We can offer support on sensitive care of the home and take a secondary role building a life here. Their husbands are and intimate issues in ways that other to men. We have to fight for opportunities either dead, in prison, or missing. organisations cannot, and we can act as to have a role outside of the house and to be The women struggle to find work a bridge to international humanitarian in leadership positions. We need to get paid and struggle to feed their children. The organisations to make sure people in our for the humanitarian work we do in order to ones who live with their husbands often community are receiving food, healthcare, make it sustainable. experience domestic abuse when the men and the other essential support they need. Most international humanitarian lash out because of financial stress. Unfortunately, however, the organisations offer voluntary positions to Many women have also been subjected humanitarian system is replicating the women like me, even if we do as much to circumcision. They want to go to the inequalities we face in our private lives. As work as people who are given a salary. hospital to receive medical care, but they do a Sudanese woman leading an organisation, Some organisations offer allowances of not know where to go, and fear judgement I feel like I am being left behind and around $150 per month as compensation to from the Sudanese community. marginalised, not because I want to be, but volunteers. That is not enough to even pay because the humanitarian system does not rent, let alone feed our children or cover A Sudanese woman will never speak about her rape to a man. She will never tell a man that she is having difficulties giving birth because of circumcision or that her husband treats her badly. She will never speak to a man about early marriage or young girls getting married to older men. These topics are considered shameful and taboo. Men commit many of the acts women suffer from, and women are afraid that they will be further victimised if they speak up. If a woman tells a man she is being beaten by her husband, the man will often ask the husband if it is true and the husband will only beat his wife more. Many Sudanese men will say these issues should be solved within the family and discourage women from seeking outside support. At the same time, Sudanese women also struggle to talk about these topics with Ugandan and Western aid workers who come from different cultures and speak different languages. But they will talk about them with other women from their own community; women who understand their South Sudanese refugees near the border with Uganda: female refugees face myriad challenges experiences and speak their language. Credit: Isaac Billy/UN Photo

24 AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 ANALYSIS healthcare and education expenses. recognition of the multiple responsibilities Beating the odds we have as women. The Grand Bargain was supposed SHIMA Bahre is Executive Director to change this, but in my experience it International humanitarian of the Sudanese Women for Peace and Development Association (SWPDA). A refugee from Darfur, she is the co- founder of an organisation committed Unfortunately, the to supporting other Sudanese refugee ‘ women in Kampala. She says: “I heard about the humanitarian system localisation process in humanitarian aid, but I do not feel its effect. What I do is replicating the feel, and experience on a daily basis, are the numerous ways women – especially refugee women – are discriminated inequalities we face in against in the humanitarian system. “My experiences have taught me that, wherever we go, women need to stand up our private lives for ourselves and take leadership because no one understands the issues women has not. Instead of focusing full time on organisations should dedicate a specific from war zones face better than we do humanitarian work, I had to open a bakery percentage of funding to build the capacity ourselves. to earn money to support myself and my of refugee women-led’ organisations to help “When I was 12 years old my family family. these basic goals become a reality. fled to Kalma camp, the largest camp If we get paid for our humanitarian Instead, donors expect women refugee- for displaced people in Darfur, home to work, we will be able to increase the time led organisations to compete for the same more than 120,000 people. The war and we dedicate to it and take more control grants that male-led organisations apply for over our own lives. There is a saying in and report on them on the same schedule. insecurity were reason enough for me to Arabic: “He who does not own his own This is not feasible. Men have women leave my country, but when I was 16, I fuel does not own his own decisions.” taking care of their children, cooking their started being a human rights activist and Having funding to open a nursery at meals, and cleaning their houses while they helping women who had been raped. our organisation would also be a good are working. Women are doing both. “My work at the time consisted starting place to allow us to increase Even me, I am currently pregnant with of writing down the details of what our working hours and an important my third child. When I give birth, I will happened to the women who came to need to stay close to my baby for at least Kalma from villages to escape fighting the first three months to feed and care for and violence – mostly mothers and young them. I won’t be able to leave my child to girls. It made me a target because talking put in an eight-hour work day. I will need about rape was taboo, and recording the more time to complete the work I usually women’s stories was evidence of the do, and I will need donors to understand this and adjust accordingly. crimes being committed in the war. But the humanitarian sector does “When I finished high school, I not make any accommodations for the decided to leave. I wanted to go to realities we face as refugee women. As a university, but people like me were not result, it is difficult for women refugee- safe in Sudan. The government attacked led organisations to reach the same level women’s rights activists in universities as organisations led by men. This means and in their homes, and sometimes that we are often denied a seat at the table kidnapped them. I was scared and wanted to talk about the situations we face and to a future, so I left. propose solutions. “I spent one year in South Sudan, Without being able to raise these issues where I continued my work with women, ourselves, no one will fight for us because before arriving in 2012 in Kampala, men cannot imagine what we experience. If the humanitarian sector truly wants to where I registered as a refugee and address our needs, it is time to address the attended university, earning a degree in structural inequalities in the sector that International Relations and Diplomatic prevent refugee women from leading for Studies.” ourselves. Produced with the support of URBAN REFUGEES, a not-for-profit organisation dedicated to improving the lives of refugees and internally displaced persons in urban areas. AB

AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 25 ANALYSIS The ‘activist’ bishop keeping an eye on politicians

Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah has been a constant critic of politics in Nigeria, using his position to comment tellingly on how the country is being run. He talks to Toyin Falola about how religion continues to play a major role in the country’s contemporary political scene

HE role of religion in a society Touching on the debate on the need for is filled with many complexities. a new Constitution, Bishop Kukah said that TWhereas, until recently, the state a “made in highest heavens Constitution” and the church were inseparable in Europe, would not change the steady course to the theocracy has remained the hallmark of abyss of the Nigerian state unless the people governance in the oriental world, with reinvented themselves. A new Constitution, Africa increasingly dangling between he said, could create the ground for change democratic and theocratic governance. but it could not by itself “see us through This is very much evident in Nigeria, this endless post-colonial scene”. where, as the eminent activist, Bishop He said the Constitution would not Matthew Hassan Kukah, puts it: “You make Nigerians good, bad, strong or cannot become a successful politician in responsive; only efficient institutions that Nigeria without pretending to be religious.” Bishop Kukah: ‘you cannot become a successful upheld the social contract between the And, as he added, political power is still politician in Nigeria without pretending to be religious’ people and the state would. largely spiritualised in the country, to the Bishop Kukah added that if “the little culture could only be engineered by the extent that religious leaders are appointed room left for the practice of a Federal new generation, “not by the generation born as de facto divine fathers of political parties structure cannot be optimised now” because and bred in the ways of cultural divide”. and candidates. of the “casino mentality” that governed Born in the twilight of the colonial Opponents of Not Too Young to Run politics, it was hard to suppose that either epoch, Bishop Kukah, belongs to the say that it would only work in favour of a restructured state or a new Constitution generation of those who witnessed and the ruling elites whose children would would perform magic. take the place of their parents in the name enjoyed the “golden age” in Nigeria. He For the Bishop, a “casino mentality” of the youths. But Bishop Kukah pointed has been at the frontline of liberating has turned political office into an out that there had not any member of the the African political space for over two investment, with expected returns after a Nigeria political elite who had managed decades. successful race. What he is implying is that to “recycle” a young family member into Like many Nigerians, the Bishop until Nigerians stop deceiving themselves, power. regretted the harm the military has done to they would come to realise that altruistic post-colonial development in Nigeria. On Nevertheless, he said that the vibrancy intentions and brilliant ideas do not pay how he has maintained a steady passion for of youths was needed to engineer social Nigeria, given its trials and tribulations over the last 60 years of independence, he said A “casino mentality” has turned political office it was down to faith. “We are men of hope, into an investment, with expected returns after a and our hope does not fail us,” he said. But he warned that faith without reasoning ‘successful race would lead to radicalisation. change in Nigeria. The contradiction that Bishop Kukah was upbeat about the loans, and as such politicians would always the #EndSARS protest suggests could not role of the youth in politics, noting the work want to recoup their investment upon a elude the clergyman in this respect. He said of the Not Too Young to Run campaign. ’ successful contest. that a government, which could happen to Some Nigerians have, however, argued that On the whole, Bishop Kukah said that it is the political culture that should change come to power on the vigour of youths on politics in Nigeria was like a coup, only that first rather than focusing on age or gender the streets and on the social media space it did not involve the military anymore. The to bring in a new Nigeria. But Bishop could well be the same one that would order clergyman must have forgotten that at the Kukah pointed out that though the political the killings of the same youths in a peaceful last election, there were soldiers with guns culture needed to be change in Nigeria, that protest. carrying ballot boxes.

The above is based on a lengthy interview with Bishop Hassan Kukah for the Toyin Falola Interviews on March 7. For the entire recording go to: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-NVxw-vwBaI 26 AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 SIERRA LEONE’S BIO PITCHES FOR BUSINESS

News, Analysis & Comment July-August 2019 Vol. 2 No.4

SOUTH AFRICA’S BITTER IRONY GHANA: CONSTITUTIONALISM UNDER THREAT

RESOURCE CURSE: ZAMBIA SHOWS THE WAY

CORRUPTION: WHERE ARE AFRICA’S BILLIONS?

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Email: [email protected] BUSINESS & ECONOMY Light at the end of the tunnel for Africa’s economic recovery

Analysts* at the African Development Bank say the region’s recovery from recession due to the coronavirus pandemic hinges on a number of factors, including the disease itself, financial inflows and geopolitical tensions

FRICA is set to recover from its worst recession in half a Acentury. Real GDP is projected to grow by 3.4 percent in 2021 after contracting by an estimated 2.1 percent in 2020, mainly due to Covid-19 related disruptions, according to the African Development Bank’s recently released African Economic Outlook (AEO). The pandemic also caused deep scars in the financing and debt landscape of the continent that may linger on if not quickly addressed. At the launch of the AEO, Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz rightly explained how the Covid-19 pandemic caused both demand- and supply-side shocks in the continent. “It affected the demand for exports of African countries…but it also affected the willingness of people to work in some of the more exposed sectors and its effects were very disparate across different sectors.” Following Stiglitz’s train of thought, Africa’s projected recovery will be subject to an unusually high level of uncertainty and risks, as is also pointed out in the analyses of the AEO. Recovery prospects and risks The most obvious risk to the recovery is the disease itself. The emergence of more contagious strains of the Covid-19 virus could derail the recovery process. Furthermore, if progress in deploying safe and effective treatment is slower than expected, governments would have to reinstate restrictions. On the upside, if Covid-19 therapeutics and vaccines become accessible in the continent earlier than anticipated, the growth projection for 2021 Government policies could make or break the recovery could be exceeded, leading to a more robust

28 AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 BUSINESS & ECONOMY recovery. in 43 countries in 2020. If these tensions governments’ containment measures Another risk factor relates to the are not properly defused, they could result have helped accelerate digitalisation in financial inflows to the continent. Although in policy uncertainty, dampening investor Africa, with more people adopting digital commodity prices have recovered confidence, and could ultimately derail transactions, virtual meetings, e-medicine, somewhat from the low levels seen in growth prospects. e-commerce and other electronic platforms. mid-2020, they remain subdued compared Policies to sustain the recovery If digitalisation is sustained in the post-pandemic era, it would accelerate to their pre-pandemic levels. Remittances In the end, government policies could productivity and foster rapid and quality are estimated to have dropped by nearly make or break the recovery. For example, 10 percent in 2020, while tourism, growth. foreign direct investments, and portfolio investments were halted in many countries. Policies to strengthen good governance If these sources of inflows do not rebound, public finances in many African economies and structural reforms should be will remain suppressed, jeopardising the projected recovery. ‘ aggressively implemented as part of Social and geopolitical tensions in the efforts to mitigate the Covd-19 crisis region are also a major source of risk. The number of conflict-related events in the and avoid a looming debt crisis continent, including political violence, rose Furthermore, policymakers must not prematurely withdraw the current fiscal and monetary stimulus packages’ that have supported recovery. Support for the health sector should continue to consolidate gains in the fight against the virus. Effective policies to retool Africa’s labour force for the future of work must also be aggressively pursued. The African Continental Free Trade Area agreement should be used to strengthen regional and multinational trade and cooperation to stimulate shared prosperity. New public investment projects should focus on pandemic- and climate- proof infrastructure to help build economic resilience. The impact of school closures on human capital development and the inequalities it creates between the rich and the poor, and between girls and boys, must be mitigated through targeted policies. Whenever in- person learning is possible, schools should open with the appropriate safety protocols in place. Otherwise, learning should continue using traditional media – print, radio, TV – and digital technologies such as smartphones and computers. Social safety nets, including cash transfers and in-kind support, should be expanded to include previously neglected groups in slums and informal businesses, taking advantage of the accelerated digital penetration. Policies to strengthen good governance and structural reforms should be aggressively implemented as part of efforts to mitigate the Covid-19 crisis and avoid a looming debt crisis. African countries must eradicate all forms of ‘leakages’ in public finances and pursue an all-out effort to harness digital technologies to propel the continent into the fourth industrial revolution and into a future that is far more resilient to economic shocks. AB *Chuku Chuku is OIC Division Manager for the Macroeconomic Policy, Debt Sustainability and Forecasting Division of the African Development Bank; Yaye Betty Camara is a Research Analyst and Environmental Economist with the Macroeconomic Policy, Debt Sustainability and Forecasting Division. AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 29 BUSINESS & ECONOMY Next commodity boom offers no post-pandemic panacea

Growing demand for African oil, natural gas, and metals is driving anticipation of another commodity super-cycle on the continent. However, specialist intelligence firm Pangea-Risk says many resource dependent countries will struggle to emerge from the pandemic due to their high debt servicing costs and entrenched political risk. Meanwhile, economically diversified countries are set for a faster and more sustained economic recovery this year

N February 15, oil prices vaccine rollouts in North America, its 21-year low in April 2020. Similarly, reached a 13-month high Europe, and other developed markets liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices have Oover concerns of insecurity in are fuelling investor confidence. Most recovered by more than 727 percent since the Gulf, supply constraints, the OPEC+ importantly, expansive global monetary the lows of the pandemic. Metals price production quota, and anticipated further and fiscal policies have created a flow of rates have also recovered to pre pandemic stimulus for the US economy. Pangea-Risk “hot money” that is again being directed levels – copper prices reached an eight- highlighted some of these threats to global to developing markets, such as Africa, year high after increasing by 26 percent in oil supply in recent reporting on insecurity in an apparent repeat of the aftermath of 2020. Other top-performing metals include in the Gulf. the 2008/9 financial crisis. This trend has palladium, gold, platinum, iron ore, and There are several indicators to suggest created anticipations of another commodity bauxite (for aluminium production). that commodity markets, especially oil, super-cycle and raised concerns over the All these commodities are important gas, and metals, will continue to boom implications for an African sustainable foreign exchange earners for African over 2021, which will have important economic recovery after the pandemic. markets with significant growth potential implications for Africa’s extractive sectors While oil prices dropped by 20 percent for trade after the pandemic. However, and trade. An anticipated economic over the course of last year and remain there remain several questions over the recovery in China will drive demand below pre-pandemic levels, crude has extent of the next commodity super-cycle for hard commodities, while Covid-19 recovered by almost 293 percent since (if that is an accurate term), as well as over

Africa gas economy 30 AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 BUSINESS & ECONOMY

Africa commodities the potential to increase intra-regional dependent on their extractive sectors, countries will remain highly reliant on trade under the new continental free trade but that a sustained economic recovery credit support for the next few years. agreement and the impact on loan servicing from the pandemic can only be achieved African oil and gas bonanza – who for many debt-distressed African countries. through economic diversification and will benefit? the implementation of sound fiscal and Pangea-Risk assesses that a recovery Africa’s largest oil producers are monetary policy, supported by multilateral in African commodity markets will in the sizable exporters of crude, yet for many and development fnance institutions. This short marginal exporters such as Tunisia or means that several African markets will to medium term alleviate sovereign Côte d’Ivoire higher global oil prices will remain vulnerable to more external shocks credit risks for some countries that remain provide little additional balance of payment even after the pandemic and that these BUSINESS & ECONOMY support. Moreover, some of Africa’s largest Libya has the largest crude oil reserves at as in larger oil-producing countries like oil producers are facing field depletion 48.36 billion barrels, accounting for a third Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, and Ghana. The and falling investment in new fields due of Africa’s total reserves of 125.8 billion same scenario is playing out for Africa’s to high operational costs. The prospect of barrels. A ceasefire in the Libyan conflict natural gas producers. The prospect of Algerian oil reserves drying up by 2050 and an end to blockades of oil terminals is natural gas production in West Africa, similarly does not bode well for increased raising hopes for a recovery of the war-torn namely in Senegal and Mauritania, has investment in the socialist-run North country’s oil sector, as recently assessed by been indefinitely postponed. The three African country’s energy. Pangea-Risk. major LNG mega-projects in Mozambique Africa’s second-biggest oil producer Nigeria’s oil sector, which has the will go ahead, although the pandemic Angola’s offshore oil fields are running second largest reserves estimated at 36.97 has caused a delay in ExxonMobil’s dry, while reserves in Equatorial Guinea billion barrels, is far better positioned final investment decision. The north and Gabon are also facing depletion in than Angola following the Nigerian Mozambican LNG sector is facing a coming years. Angola has streamlined oil government’s firm intention to pass the greater threat from regional security risks regulations to attract investment. However, petroleum industry reform bill early this than from LNG price volatility. oil production is dropping at its ageing year. Nigeria attracted only four percent of On 15 February, Credit rating agency offshore fields. The country requires heavy Africa’s $75 billion oil and gas investment Fitch reported that the global push to investment to develop new deep-sea fields, over the four years before the pandemic limit climate change is expected to cut yet the longer-term oil price trajectory does (2015-2019). But the country is now set demand for oil, gas, and coal, as well as not make such investments commercially to attract fresh interest as the reform bill the infrastructure required to extract and viable. offers new fiscal incentives to producers, export these commodities, turning them Moreover, most future consignments unifies overlapping regulatory frameworks, into “stranded assets” that will never of crude exports are designated to repay and commercialises state oil company be fully utilised. Fitch warns that major Chinese infrastructure loans. Lower oil NNPC to drive competitiveness and oil producers would see a fall in their prices also mean that Angola needs to sell encourage fresh investment. sovereign credit rating as a result of the more oil to China at lower returns to repay However, the pandemic-induced oil global shift away from fossil fuels. its massive Chinese loans. This makes slump will result in the cancellation of African metals rally the Angolan oil sector unattractive and several large oil and gas projects, while Chinese demand for base metals is many oil majors now shun the country. the coming onstream of nascent East and boosting the price of copper and iron ore, Other producers with larger and more West African producers is set to be further although supply constraints in Chile, Peru, commercially viable reserves are more delayed. Project delays or cancellations and Brazil are also driving factors for likely to benefit from renewed investment are occurring in nascent producers such price hikes. Iron ore, which is produced spurred on by a recovery in oil prices. as Uganda, Kenya, and Senegal, as well in sizable quantities by countries such as

Africa oil economy BUSINESS & ECONOMY

Africa precious metals

South Africa, Mauritania, and soon also on another $1.5 billion in debt. However, $370 million to boost Congo’s shrinking Guinea, has seen its prices skyrocket by Zambia’s sovereign credit position is foreign exchange reserves. The latest 121 percent in the past eight months. unlikely to be boosted by higher copper budget, which is $4 billion smaller than Copper prices were at a three-year low export revenues. Questionable fiscal the previous budget, improves IMF- in April 2020 and then increased by 67 policy – characterised by excess taxation mandated transparency and removes scope percent to an eight-year high by end of on productive sectors such as mining – has for the central bank, the Banque Centrale 2020. However, unlike iron ore, copper undermined productivity, revenue, and du Congo, to resume lending to the prices are set for a sustained price growth exports. Meanwhile, nationalist economic government. trajectory in 2021. This will have major policies continue to disincentivise The current commodity price trend implications for Africa’s two largest investment. may not be an actual super-cycle, since copper producers, namely the Democratic DRC may be in a better position to most of the price rises over the past eight Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia. benefit from the copper price rally. An months are due to supply constraints Zambia ‘s government is in desperate improved outlook for copper and cobalt rather than a protracted global uptick in need for new copper export revenues as mining may also encourage donors, foreign demand, which would define a super- the country has now twice defaulted on banks, and investors to borrow more to the cycle. Nevertheless, some metals could country, particularly as the government is Eurobond coupon payments and currently be entering their own super-cycle. JP building up its pro-investment credentials. spends almost half of its tax revenues Morgan Chase recently said that demand Newly appointed Congolese Prime servicing its debt. The copper producer for metals needed to build renewable Minister Sama Lukonde Kyenge, who is a owes $3 billion in outstanding Eurobonds, energy infrastructure, batteries, and former head of the state mining company, $3.5 billion in bilateral debt, $2.1 billion electric vehicles, would be boosted by is expected to drive a reform programme to multilaterals and $2.9 billion to other the fight against climate change. This in the mining sector that would encourage commercial lenders, as well as at least $3 scenario would be good news for major fresh investment. billion to Chinese state-owned and private platinum producers such as South Africa lenders. Moreover, the country may owe Moreover, DRC’s government has and Zimbabwe, as well as South Africa’s some $10 billion in undisclosed loans better managed its debt profile than Zambia palladium sector. In his recent State of the owed to Chinese firms for infrastructure and is seeking to engage multilaterals. The Nation address, South African President projects, although not all this sum has yet US government is supportive of President Cyril Ramaphosa said that the country been disbursed. Tshisekedi and has urged the International would also be building on the continental The state mining investment firm Monetary Fund (IMF) to restart lending free trade agreement to boost intra-regional ZCCM-IH recently purchased the Mopani to DRC. In 2019, the Fund agreed to an trade with funds being allocated to land Copper Mines, which saw Zambia take emergency credit line of approximately border crossings. AB CULTURE Nollywood: linking art and society (Part Two)

In our January-February edition, Toyin Falola spoke to Jonathan Haynes about the growth of the Nigerian film industry. Here, they continue the discussion on how the country’s movie business has developed over the years

frica Briefing: You have among numerous films: plot elements, seemed to have almost to herself for a argued in one of your books themes, character types, settings, and so decade or more, and I write about why Athat each genre in movies on. Sometimes a single feature marks a Nigerian society seemed to have relatively generally is multifaceted and has its own film as belonging to a specific genre, as a little interest in that genre; but then the peculiarity. Give us a review of the film king enthroned in a grass-thatched village multiplex cinemas opened, with their genres and their attachment to social, signals a cultural epic. But I don’t believe audience of young people out on dates, and historical, and cultural realities as well one inflexible generic grid can be imposed rom coms became one of the most popular as how future scholars of Nollywood may on the whole film culture. forms. recognise the genres. Genres are all produced historically In my book, it’s the relationship of Jonathan Haynes: As I say in the and change in history. Sometimes they genre to history that interests me most. preface to Nollywood: The Creation change very slowly: the genre of tragedy Here my premise is that the stories we of Nigerian Film Genres, I understand was invented in ancient Athens in the 5th want to hear over and over, with variations, genre to be a messy business. My general century BC, and the basic boy-meets-girl are the ones we feel to be essential or that understanding is based on the notion of comic plot in the next century. They are speak powerfully to the particular moment “family resemblances”: if works share still going strong, often in very much the we are in. enough features in common, it makes sense same form. Genres change, or don’t, because to discuss them as a “kind.” Others, like the Nigerian vigilante our problems change, or don’t. My basic In my chapters on campus films film, came and went very quickly around argument is that Nigeria created its own and films set in the Nigerian diaspora, I 2000 but made a great impact. Romantic system of genres, out of its own resources, include tables that show common elements comedies were a form that Emem Isong for its own reasons, and in response to its

In the mix: Jonathan Haynes and actor Hafiz ‘Saka’ Oyetoro in Lagos in 2018

34 AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 CULTURE own needs good at negotiating for themselves, and the a tremendous stimulus to the production AB: Nollywood’s business model is structures of ownership always need to be of Igbo-language films and other kinds of now in a monumental crisis. There are worried about. content, which shows that the effect even several problems that are hindering the All this foreign capital has not led to of transnational media structures isn’t growth of the movie industry in Nigeria, the imposition of a single foreign cultural simple. can you identify the cogent ones? model. Internet and satellite broadcasting In Benin City, a small but steady stream of films is being produced in Bini/ Edo, and there is some level of production Nigeria created its own system of in a number of other languages. Maybe Nollywood’s greatest gift to Nigeria and to genres, out of its own resources Africa is the sense that self-representation ‘ through filmmaking is within everyone’s JH: Nollywood’s business model reach, and this has an ethnic/linguistic has pretty much always been in crisis. depend on aggregating various audiences, dimension. Nollywood was born out of the crisis so many niche film cultures are ’liable to I’ve always seen Nollywood as that destroyed Nigerian celluloid film have a continued existence. At the same primarily a national form, the direct production and staged theatre and damaged time, only blockbusters bring dramatic inheritor of the Nigerian Television television production, and it was born levels of profit, which means producers are Authority’s project of creating an out of the resilience and imagination that always looking for ways to make crossover image of the nation through serials created the world’s first major all-video hits. with multicultural casts speaking a film industry, based on aging, and so To take one particular bright spot, there multilinguistic stew that was pungently discounted, analogue cassette technologies. is now a raft of Nigerian films on Netflix, Nigerian. The rise of the multiplex cinemas Nigerians are good at coping with crisis several of which were too advanced in to the commanding heights of Nigerian because they’ve known so much of it. their aesthetics or culture to be successful film culture has intensified the commercial The global media business model is on any of the platforms within Nigeria. pressure to have multicultural casts: also lurching from crisis to crisis, even as Netflix showcases a number of Nigeria’s the producers are sure to cast Igbos and it is increasingly consolidated. The way brightest talents on the international stage. Yorubas and other ethnicities in a film the pandemic is upending the relationship This is good—probably better, in fact, than so that it will find audiences in as many between theatrical release of films and anything that has ever existed in Nigeria neighbourhoods as possible. streaming is only the latest example of a before. AB: What other African national rapid, seismic shift. AB: Nollywood represents the or regional cinemas have emerged Within this context, where admittedly nation’s multi-ethnic and linguistic in addition to Nollywood? What it is not comfortable to try to make a complexities. How does the industry are the important distinctions and living or make investments, I think contribute to critical multiculturalism? commonalities among them? Nollywood’s prospects have never been JH: The dynamics in play are vast JH: Nollywood’s history has better. The original Nollywood model, and complex, and Nollywood’s role isn’t always been intertwined with that of its based on the sale of discs, keeps chugging determining or simple. But it certainly Ghanaian twin, the first born. I’m often along, but now it is supplemented by is influential. As a form of national mass disappointed by South African films, but more dynamic—and much more heavily culture, it doubtless has contributed to the there is a powerful and sophisticated media capitalised—sectors: the multiplex cinemas, satellite broadcasting, terrestrial broadcasting, which is greatly expanding Nigerian media dominate the as Nigeria slowly converts from analogue to digital, and internet streaming. There is national media space and are firmly a lot to say about each one of these sectors. ‘ Nigerian media dominate the national established as the regional media media space and are firmly established as the regional media hegemon across most hegemon across most of Africa of Africa. An alliance between Nigerian creativity and South African capital and technology, in the form of the satellite decline of Nigeria’s myriad “traditional” apparatus there. Kenya has “Riverwood,” broadcasting conglomerate Naspers/DStv/ cultures, which is a quiet, slow- Tanzania has “Bongowood,” Uganda’ has MultiChoice/Africa Magic, created that moving cultural catastrophe of gigantic its thing. These last examples were inspired regional hegemony, but Nigerian media proportions. by Nollywood and in many cases Nigerian are now also courted by the French, the But the division, from the beginning, of actors and other filmmakers came to help Chinese, the Americans, et al. Nigeria’s video film industry into Yoruba, jump start the local scene. So, there is and will be plenty of work Hausa, and English-language branches But Nollywood is not the only for Nigerian filmmakers, though most of shows the continuing relevance of Nigerian model for an African video film industry. that work is very badly paid, as it always languages. When Africa Magic added an Alessandro Jedlowski argues against has been. Nigerian filmmakers are not Igbo channel to its satellite bouquet, it was technological determinism through an

AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 35 CULTURE

elegant comparison of the video film politically, has encouraged the recent burst industries? industries in Nigeria, Cote d’Ivoire, and in interesting academic work about it. Let’s JH: Nollywood films reflect the society Ethiopia. In Cote d’Ivoire, the television hope the recent political problems aren’t they come from, and Nigerian society is infrastructure was strong and the feature too much of a setback to this promising undoubtedly extremely patriarchal and filmmaking infrastructure was weak, industry. sexist. But, arguably, Nollywood is a so serials never lost their primacy even outside the broadcast environment. In Ethiopia, there was a strong tradition Nigerian women have created for of cinema-going, so the primary mode has remained films made on video and themselves the capacity for self- projected in theatres rather than a market in discs. In African film scholarship, Ethiopia ‘ expression through the film industry has suddenly emerged from obscurity: its films and film culture were and are in Amharic or other Ethiopian languages and AB: A great deal of research has better place for women to work in than not in English or French, which contributed been written on women actors and Hollywood is. ’ to its isolation. technical workers in the Nollywood film The range of female characters is much Ethiopia’s recent economic boom has industry. What do you think about how broader in Nollywood – actresses do not greatly increased its film production, and these women are perceived and treated have to conform to a certain body type, its opening to the world, economically and as opposed to other women in film and there are lots of parts for older women, as there are not in the US. In the old days, when I asked directors and producers who their target audience was, they would tell me it was market women. They were the customers who had the price of a film tied up in their wrappers at the end of the week, when, often, their husbands were out of work or their salaries had been rendered nearly worthless by inflation. The whole family might watch the film – often the husband pretended to be reading the newspaper – but the woman chose it. The situation in northern Nigeria was the most dramatic: respectable women did not go to cinemas and so were mostly excluded from film culture, but the “home videos” were tailored for their situations. The more they were secluded, the more addicted to films they became. People referred to the new medium of video films as “women’s films”. Behind the camera, men have always outnumbered women, but some of the most powerful and influential writers, directors, and, particularly, producers have been women. At the beginning there was Amaka Igwe, who was always quick to point out how important the example of the television pioneer Lola Fani-Kayode was to her. Then the line runs through people like Emem Isong and Peace Anyiam Osigwe to Mo Abudu and Mary Remmy Njoku, the last two being the most powerful producers in Nigeria, and the women who created and run the most important film festivals, and filmmakers like Kemi Adetiba, Tope Oshin, and many others. The inner workings of Nollywood: Jonathan Haynes’ book on the Nigerian film industry

36 AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 CULTURE

University of Ibadan, and the University of Lagos. and all the other places I passed through. By 1991 Nigeria’s universities had already been devastated by SAP [structural adjustment programme], but enough was left that I absorbed something of the dream that had built them, and I had the privilege of learning directly from a lot of immensely impressive people: Obiora and Ada Udechukwu, Chika Okeke-Agulu, and Sylvester Ogbechie at UNN, Raufu Mustafa, Kate Meagher, Jibo Ibrahim, Charmaine Pereira, and Tanimu Abubakar at ABU, Harry Garuba, Dapo Adelugba, Niyi Osundare, Femi Osofisan, and Hyginus Ekwuazi at UI, Duro Oni and Hope Eghagha at UNILAG and Odia Ofeimun who would pop up anywhere along the Lagos-Ibadan axis. I’m just scratching the surface here, and I’m leaving out many of my closest friends. My point is that a very consequential part of my education happened in Nigeria, at the hands of Nigerians, and as a result I was formed at least partly as a Nigerian intellectual. I’ve published three books in Ibadan because Ibadan is where you’re supposed to want to be published. During the long gap between my third and fourth Behind the camera, men have always outnumbered women in Nollywood Fulbright’s, invitations to Nigerian conferences and film festivals kept alive American women in Hollywood AB: Well, yes. I’d been in a lot of other my connections with Nigerian academics don’t wield power on this level. Nigerian places before I first arrived in Nigeria, and also kept my research alive, as I would women have created for themselves the but something special clicked right away, extend my trips to meet with filmmakers. capacity for self-expression through the an avid curiosity and general fascination. Those invitations were the material film industry. I don’t mean to minimise It’s an elective affinity, maybe a case of precondition for my big Nollywood book. the reproduction of sexist attitudes in opposites attracting. After nearly 30 years Nollywood films or the prevalence of of being in Nigeria or thinking about it sexual depredation in the industry, but I pretty steadily even when I’m on my own Jonathan Haynes taught English at think on balance Nollywood is more part continent, certain Nigerian things have Long Island University in the US for of the solution than part of the problem. seeped into my experience of the world. many years. He also taught at various universities in the Egypt, Ghana, and AB: Your book shows the inner And it matters that I was educated as Germany. For about three years, he workings of the history of Nollywood, an Africanist in Nigeria. I was already was an American Fulbright scholar at a and you put forth a convincing established as an academic when I number of Federal universities in Nigeria, argument about why the films produced first arrived, but I had no training or cutting across almost all the geo-political zones. His academic interests are in English Arguably, Nollywood is a Renaissance literature, film, African Studies, and post-colonialism. He is well- ‘ better place for women to versed in Film Studies from the Global South, especially the rise of the Nigerian film industry, Nollywood. Haynes work in than Hollywood is has benefited from the Guggenheim Fellowship. His books include Cinema by the industry should be given more background in African studies. That and Social Change in West Africa (1995) attention. Based on your enthusiasm, happened during my years as a Fulbrighter and Nollywood: The Creation of Nigerian is it correct to say that there is a sort of on the campuses of University of Nigeria-’ Film Genres (2016). Nigerianism in you? Nsukka, Ahmadu Bello University, the AB AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 37 APPRECIATION Nawal El Saadawi: a bulwark of feminism

The Egyptian author who died on March 21, aged 89, left legacies to teach young people, writes Toyin Falola, who looks at what motivated her activism

ORN on October 27, 1931, in felt that she was fiercely attacking their Kafr Tahla, Nawal El Saadawi’s religion. Bchildhood was a mélange of When these threats reached a heightened support and enforced traditions. At age six, level, El Saadawi sought protection in the she underwent female genital mutilation. US. Her move was a turning point in her life, Although her father was supposedly as she held a number of exalted positions educated and a top official in the Egyptian in renowned educational institutions in the Ministry of Education, he gave in to country: Harvard, Yale, and the University of traditional ways. California. El Saadawi’s father was a man torn El Saadawi’s activism never waned. between his progressive thinking and Contrary to what is obtainable in many respecting supposed cultural norms. He was quarters, as El Saadawi grew older, her voice vocal against the British in Egypt, and this became stronger in her fight for equality of earned him a delayed promotion. From a all. very young age, he ingrained in El Saadawi She was writing books up to 2006, the goodness attached to speaking up when frequently commenting on social issues, one needs to, and he was always supportive Nawal El Saadawi: she was a formidable activist especially the circumcision of children. She of her vocal nature. wrote a thought-provoking piece on the However, this same father allowed his her own experiences, El Saadawi resorted death by circumcision of 12-year-old Badour daughter to be circumcised. El Saadawi to writing to bring about change. Her first Shaker. survived the ritual, but she was scarred published book was written in 1957 when El Saadawi also spoke extensively for life. She channelled her anger towards she was 25. The book, a collection of short and dissentingly on how religious leaders ensuring that other girls in Egypt and all stories, was titled I Learned Love. advanced their political causes through over the world did not have to go through As she committed more time to writing religion. She always stood for justice and the same thing. and advocacy, El Saadawi started facing equal rights, and she never flinched from Similarly, El Saadawi’s paternal strong opposition. At that time, a vocal Arab berating anyone who sought to deprive grandmother encouraged her to be critical woman was perceived as a societal anomaly. others of these two things. and logical in her take on issues. Thus, She was attacked by religious leaders She received several prestigious awards she learned early on to speak up against of varying religions – from Islam to in her lifetime, both for her activism and her perceived injustice. Christianity to Judaism. Furthermore, as writings. The years between 2001 and 2015 At a very tender age, she lost her father, the government started to notice her radical were years of awards for her. The Council of who was a supporter of her vocal and radical writings, she was laid off from her job as Europe awarded her the “2004 North-South nature, and mother, a cool-headed yet firm the Director of Egypt’s Ministry of Health, Prize” for her commitment to human rights warrior who stood her ground and ensured amid other positions that she lost due to her advocacy. She also won the “Women of the that her daughter was not given away in advocacy. Year Award” in 2011. She was awarded the marriage at age 11. El Saadawi was a prolific writer whose “MacBride Peace Prize” in 2012, and the El Saadawi had always been creative books were translated into 13 languages. French government awarded her the “French and artistic since she was young. There She was praised for her literary work. While Order of Merit” award in 2013. Apart from are claims that she had always wanted to she considered herself more of a novelist, these awards, El Saadawi also held honorary be a singer or a dancer, while there are the world knew her better for her advocacy doctorate degrees, awarded her by different indications in other quarters that she wanted writings. institutions on three continents. to be a writer. Some of her most powerful books El Saadawi is gone, and the best things Though it was rare for girls to study at include Memoirs of a Woman Doctor (1958), we have left of her are her books, essays, the tertiary level during El Saadawi’s youth, which documented her experiences in the words, videos, and, for her family members, her parents, who were education enthusiasts, field on how ruralism can affect a people’s fond memories. However, her peaceful soul convinced her to study medicine at the way of thinking and mode of acting, and might not rest easy if we choose to celebrate University of Cairo. She became a doctor what the average woman in rural Egypt was her without learning lessons from her in 1955, at the age of 23, specialising in going through; Women and Sex (1972), life, without understanding her stance and psychiatry. She went back to her hometown which attacked the various atrocities advocacy, to strive to bring about change. to practice, and this had grave effects on the committed against women’s bodies and Undaunted by threats to her life and woman and activist that she became. was banned in Egypt for about 20 years; unmoved by oppositions from all sides, El As El Saadawi worked in her village, and The Hidden Face of Eve (1989), which Saadawi remained firm in what she believed she came in contact with girls who had gone shed light on the real causative factors of the was right. She stood her ground in her fight through female genital mutilation, and those oppression of Arab women. against oppression, suppression, barbaric encounters brought back memories of her El Saadawi’s writings and advocacy and harmful practices, and injustices of any own ordeal. for morality put her in trouble with the form. These situations spurred her interest in Egyptian government. Upon taking the Another lesson we should learn from two things: health education and writing. publisher’s role for the feminist magazine, El Saadawi’s life is that old age should not She believed that on the health side she Confrontation, she was jailed in 1981. Ever necessarily translate to an abandonment of could enlighten the villagers and give them resilient and never to be caught dejected, all that one used to stand for. She remained insights into how their practices adversely El Saadawi founded the Arab Women’s vocal and advocated for issues that were dear affected the psychological and physical Solidarity Association, a legal feminist to her until her death. Her life, advocacies group, while serving her jail term. states of girls – both the direct victims and achievements are a stimulus for every Advocacy and righting of wrongs and the indirect victims who watched how one of us to rise against injustice and come with heavy criticisms and threats; El society treated their gender. oppression in our locality, state, nation, and Saadawi’s case was not different. She was Angered by the girl-child abuse cases in the world. that she witnessed, and further fuelled by threatened several times by extremists who AB 38 AFRICA BRIEFING MARCH - APRIL 2021 Subscribe to the digital edition on magzter.com Ad for AfricaBriefing p28A.qxp_Layout 1 09/04/2017 23:33 Page 1

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SITRECO LTD

We are a London based independent oil and gas consultancy. Our directors are oil professionals with practical experience of the industry, having proven track records of establishing, optimising, improving and running profitable businesses. We have a detailed knowledge of the global oil markets, with a strong emphasis on: Sub-Sahara Africa; Europe; the Middle and Far East and EC North America.

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