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Book Reviews Book Reviews Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, branch of statistics, hypothesis testing, is importance of first-hand observation, Probability & Statistics, by William Briggs, built around the worst fallacy, the “We- insight, and intuition. To my mind, hardcover, 258 pp, $59.75, ISBN 978- Have-To-Do-Something Fallacy.” he shows that the need for the art of 3-319-39759-9, Springer International Some of the book’s key insights are: medicine is proven by the science. Publishing Switzerland, 2016. Probability is always conditional. Chance Despite its heavy subject matter, the never causes anything. Randomness is book is full of humor and a delight to read not a thing. Random, to us and to science, and re-read. This book has the potential to turn the means unknown cause. Jane M. Orient, M.D. world of evidence-based medicine upside One fallacy that Briggs chooses Tucson, Ariz. down. It boldly asserts that with regard to for special mention, because it is everything having to do with evidence, so common and so harmful, is the we’re doing it all wrong: probability, epidemiologist fallacy. He prefers his statistics, causality, modeling, deciding, neologism to the more well-known Waking the Sleeping Giant: How communicating—everything. The flavor “ecological fallacy” because without this Mainstream Americans Can Beat Liberals is probably best conveyed by the title of fallacy, “most epidemiologists, especially at Their Own Game, by Timothy Daughtry one of my favorite sections: “Die, p-Value, those employed by the government, and Gary Casselman, hardcover, 240 pages, Die, Die, Die.” would be out of a job.” It is also richer $24.95, ISBN-10: 0825306795, ISBN-13: 978- Nobody ever remembers the than the ecological fallacy because it 0825306792, Beaufort Books, 2012. definition of a p-value, William Briggs occurs whenever an epidemiologist points out. “Everybody translates it to says “X causes Y” but never measures X. How does a minority of Americans the probability, or its complement, of Causality is inferred from “wee p-values.” with far-left viewpoints representing only the hypothesis at hand.” He shows that One especially egregious example is the 20 percent of the population continually the arguments commonly used to justify assertion that small particulates in the air win political elections and drive its p-values are fallacies. It is far past time for (PM 2.5s) cause excess mortality. agenda, while the other 80 percent the “ineradicable Cult of Point-Oh-Five” to Quantifying the unquantifiable, (mainstream Americans) lose ground go, he states. He does not see confidence which is the basis of so much sociological year after year? intervals as the alternative, noting that research, creates a “devastation to sound Psychologists Timothy Daughtry and “nobody ever gets these curious creations argument…[that] cannot be quantified.” Gary Casselman have created a practical correct.” Briggs deconstructs famous examples manual on how the far left took control Briggs is neither a frequentist nor a and the “instruments” they use. of our country and how mainstream Bayesian. Rather, he recommends a third We suffer from a crisis of over-certainty, Americans can take it back. The authors way of modeling: using the model to Briggs writes. He believes we need a have mentored business leaders on predict something. “The true and only test science that is “not quite so dictatorial and leadership issues and now bring their of model goodness is how well that model inflexible, one that is calmer and in less of techniques to messaging for mainstream predicts data, never before seen or used in a hurry, one that is far less sure of itself, American activists. any way. That means traditional tricks like one that has a proper appreciation of how The sleeping giant is mainstream cross validation, boot strapping, hind- or much it doesn’t know.” Americans who are awakening to realize back-casting and the like all ‘cheat’ and Statistical significance should be that their country has been stolen by a re-use what is already known as if it were “treated like the ebola virus,” he writes, “i.e. far-left cultural/political establishment unknown; they repackage the old as new.” it should be placed in a tightly guarded that does not share its values. The authors Yes, this book is about probability and compound where any danger can be note that there are about 40 percent statistics, and there is some mathematics contained and where only individuals of Americans who are self-described in it, but fundamentally it is a book highly trained in avoiding intellectual conservatives, and another 40 percent of philosophy. If you follow his blog, contamination can view it.” who are uninformed or misinformed and wmbriggs.com, you will recognize that he Briggs will not be well loved by those who will usually side with the far left that is a devotee of Thomas Aquinas. who write “evidence-based” papers represents the remaining 20 percent. The book discusses science and replete with parameters, regressions, Our job is to educate the uninformed scientism, and belief and knowledge. and p-values. Those who study Briggs or misinformed 40 percent who, if they Chapter Two is about logic, with delightful will no longer be overawed by such knew the real story, would consistently examples from Charles Dodgson (Lewis papers, however prestigious the journal side with conservatives and disavow the Carroll). Briggs states that an entire that publishes them. But he validates the far-left agenda. 94 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons Volume 21 Number 3 Fall 2016 The book dissects the techniques used If you are Philippa Thomson, you this book. For those who have suffered by the far left in accomplishing its theft soldier on to find your way back to health. chronic or recurrent dizziness, this book of American culture. The authors then go With eloquence and humor, the author is a must-read. through a step-by-step process on how to of A Hole in My Life tells the story of her take the message away from the leftists battle to get back control of her life while Gerard Gianoli, M.D. and promote mainstream philosophies. having to deal with a severely disabled Covington, La. The principles of mainstream activists as son and a husband with renal failure set forth by the authors are: awaiting kidney transplantation. 1) We are the mainstream and the Thomson’s memoir is really two Spoilt Rotten: The Toxic Cult of liberals are the fringe. Act like it. separate stories. The first is her battle Sentimentality, by Theodore Dalrymple, 2) Face your fears of disapproval and with an inner-ear condition that was only Kindle, $8.69, eISBN 9781908096821, social unpleasantness. recently identified, in the late 1990s— London, Gibson Square, 2012. 3) Never, ever fall into a defensive superior semicircular canal dehiscence position. (SSCD). The condition, caused by a Theodore Dalrymple is the pen name 4) Seize the offensive and stay on it. miniscule defect of the bone covering of Dr. Anthony Daniels, a prolific and 5) Hit hard and sue for peace. the superior semicircular canal, has erudite essayist and author of more than 6) Drive the mainstream agenda through essentially evaded medical science the culture and the government. 10 books on culture, politics, and the arts. until CT scanning became capable of As a psychiatrist, he is a trained observer 7) Inoculate children against liberalism. identifying sub-millimeter defects in the Among these principles, the most of human behavior. bone encasing the inner ear. Daniels, now retired as a psychiatrist, important is to remember that we are the The symptoms can be manifold, mainstream and we don’t have to justify traveled the world and then returned but most characteristically cause to England where he practiced in East our position. It’s the radical left that has to Tullio’s phenomenon (sound-induced justify its position. We should always be London and then Birmingham. He vertigo), strain-induced vertigo, and worked in private practice in a bad on the offensive with the use of the three autophony (hearing internal noises R’s: Recognize the way the left wants to neighborhood and also took care of the quite loudly, such as eye movement prison in that same neighborhood, so frame the narrative, reframe the narrative and heel strike). In Thomson’s case, to put the left on the defensive, and re- he had a chance to see the underside of they also provoked panic attacks, which urban British culture and the inhabitants focus the topic to drive the mainstream further complicated her clinical picture, agenda. who are living life at the bottom, in delaying her diagnosis and prolonging and out of prison. For one of his books This book is a very easy read, written her suffering. Through mostly her in plain English with very practical on culture in poor areas in Britain, own efforts, she eventually obtained he interviewed 10,000 people who suggestions that can be used in everyday appropriate surgery to correct this life—from kitchen table discussions had attempted suicide. When he was disorder. It is a tale of courage, stamina, practicing he was a regular columnist for to PTA meetings to media interviews. and triumph against the system. The book is highly recommended for the London Spectator. He now writes for The second story line is the many different outlets and occasionally mainstream Americans who don’t comparison of medical care in a understand what has happened to our writes a book. socialized system compared with care I have been a prison doctor for country and want to do something about under free-market capitalism. Thomson it.
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