Book Reviews

Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, branch of statistics, hypothesis testing, is importance of first-hand observation, Probability & Statistics, by William Briggs, built around the worst fallacy, the “We- insight, and intuition. To my mind, hardcover, 258 pp, $59.75, ISBN 978- Have-To-Do-Something Fallacy.” he shows that the need for the art of 3-319-39759-9, Springer International Some of the book’s key insights are: medicine is proven by the science. Publishing Switzerland, 2016. Probability is always conditional. Chance Despite its heavy subject matter, the never causes anything. Randomness is book is full of humor and a delight to read not a thing. Random, to us and to science, and re-read. This book has the potential to turn the means unknown cause. Jane M. Orient, M.D. world of evidence-based medicine upside One fallacy that Briggs chooses Tucson, Ariz. down. It boldly asserts that with regard to for special mention, because it is everything having to do with evidence, so common and so harmful, is the we’re doing it all wrong: probability, epidemiologist fallacy. He prefers his statistics, causality, modeling, deciding, neologism to the more well-known Waking the Sleeping Giant: How communicating—everything. The flavor “ecological fallacy” because without this Mainstream Americans Can Beat Liberals is probably best conveyed by the title of fallacy, “most epidemiologists, especially at Their Own Game, by Timothy Daughtry one of my favorite sections: “Die, p-Value, those employed by the government, and Gary Casselman, hardcover, 240 pages, Die, Die, Die.” would be out of a job.” It is also richer $24.95, ISBN-10: 0825306795, ISBN-13: 978- Nobody ever remembers the than the ecological fallacy because it 0825306792, Beaufort Books, 2012. definition of a p-value, William Briggs occurs whenever an epidemiologist points out. “Everybody translates it to says “X causes Y” but never measures X. How does a minority of Americans the probability, or its complement, of Causality is inferred from “wee p-values.” with far-left viewpoints representing only the hypothesis at hand.” He shows that One especially egregious example is the 20 percent of the population continually the arguments commonly used to justify assertion that small particulates in the air win political elections and drive its p-values are fallacies. It is far past time for (PM 2.5s) cause excess mortality. agenda, while the other 80 percent the “ineradicable Cult of Point-Oh-Five” to Quantifying the unquantifiable, (mainstream Americans) lose ground go, he states. He does not see confidence which is the basis of so much sociological year after year? intervals as the alternative, noting that research, creates a “devastation to sound Psychologists Timothy Daughtry and “nobody ever gets these curious creations argument…[that] cannot be quantified.” Gary Casselman have created a practical correct.” Briggs deconstructs famous examples manual on how the far left took control Briggs is neither a frequentist nor a and the “instruments” they use. of our country and how mainstream Bayesian. Rather, he recommends a third We suffer from a crisis of over-certainty, Americans can take it back. The authors way of modeling: using the model to Briggs writes. He believes we need a have mentored business leaders on predict something. “The true and only test science that is “not quite so dictatorial and leadership issues and now bring their of model goodness is how well that model inflexible, one that is calmer and in less of techniques to messaging for mainstream predicts data, never before seen or used in a hurry, one that is far less sure of itself, American activists. any way. That means traditional tricks like one that has a proper appreciation of how The sleeping giant is mainstream cross validation, boot strapping, hind- or much it doesn’t know.” Americans who are awakening to realize back-casting and the like all ‘cheat’ and Statistical significance should be that their country has been stolen by a re-use what is already known as if it were “treated like the ebola virus,” he writes, “i.e. far-left cultural/political establishment unknown; they repackage the old as new.” it should be placed in a tightly guarded that does not share its values. The authors Yes, this book is about probability and compound where any danger can be note that there are about 40 percent statistics, and there is some mathematics contained and where only individuals of Americans who are self-described in it, but fundamentally it is a book highly trained in avoiding intellectual conservatives, and another 40 percent of philosophy. If you follow his blog, contamination can view it.” who are uninformed or misinformed and wmbriggs.com, you will recognize that he Briggs will not be well loved by those who will usually side with the far left that is a devotee of Thomas Aquinas. who write “evidence-based” papers represents the remaining 20 percent. The book discusses science and replete with parameters, regressions, Our job is to educate the uninformed scientism, and belief and knowledge. and p-values. Those who study Briggs or misinformed 40 percent who, if they Chapter Two is about logic, with delightful will no longer be overawed by such knew the real story, would consistently examples from Charles Dodgson (Lewis papers, however prestigious the journal side with conservatives and disavow the Carroll). Briggs states that an entire that publishes them. But he validates the far-left agenda.

94 Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons Volume 21 Number 3 Fall 2016 The book dissects the techniques used If you are Philippa Thomson, you this book. For those who have suffered by the far left in accomplishing its theft soldier on to find your way back to health. chronic or recurrent dizziness, this book of American culture. The authors then go With eloquence and humor, the author is a must-read. through a step-by-step process on how to of A Hole in My Life tells the story of her take the message away from the leftists battle to get back control of her life while Gerard Gianoli, M.D. and promote mainstream philosophies. having to deal with a severely disabled Covington, La. The principles of mainstream activists as son and a husband with renal failure set forth by the authors are: awaiting kidney transplantation. 1) We are the mainstream and the Thomson’s memoir is really two Spoilt Rotten: The Toxic Cult of liberals are the fringe. Act like it. separate stories. The first is her battle Sentimentality, by Theodore Dalrymple, 2) Face your fears of disapproval and with an inner-ear condition that was only Kindle, $8.69, eISBN 9781908096821, social unpleasantness. recently identified, in the late 1990s— London, Gibson Square, 2012. 3) Never, ever fall into a defensive superior semicircular canal dehiscence position. (SSCD). The condition, caused by a Theodore Dalrymple is the pen name 4) Seize the offensive and stay on it. miniscule defect of the bone covering of Dr. Anthony Daniels, a prolific and 5) Hit hard and sue for peace. the superior semicircular canal, has erudite essayist and author of more than 6) Drive the mainstream agenda through essentially evaded medical science the culture and the government. 10 books on culture, politics, and the arts. until CT scanning became capable of As a psychiatrist, he is a trained observer 7) Inoculate children against liberalism. identifying sub-millimeter defects in the Among these principles, the most of human behavior. bone encasing the inner ear. Daniels, now retired as a psychiatrist, important is to remember that we are the The symptoms can be manifold, mainstream and we don’t have to justify traveled the world and then returned but most characteristically cause to England where he practiced in East our position. It’s the radical left that has to Tullio’s phenomenon (sound-induced justify its position. We should always be London and then Birmingham. He vertigo), strain-induced vertigo, and worked in private practice in a bad on the offensive with the use of the three autophony (hearing internal noises R’s: Recognize the way the left wants to neighborhood and also took care of the quite loudly, such as eye movement prison in that same neighborhood, so frame the narrative, reframe the narrative and heel strike). In Thomson’s case, to put the left on the defensive, and re- he had a chance to see the underside of they also provoked panic attacks, which urban British culture and the inhabitants focus the topic to drive the mainstream further complicated her clinical picture, agenda. who are living life at the bottom, in delaying her diagnosis and prolonging and out of prison. For one of his books This book is a very easy read, written her suffering. Through mostly her in plain English with very practical on culture in poor areas in Britain, own efforts, she eventually obtained he interviewed 10,000 people who suggestions that can be used in everyday appropriate surgery to correct this life—from kitchen table discussions had attempted suicide. When he was disorder. It is a tale of courage, stamina, practicing he was a regular columnist for to PTA meetings to media interviews. and triumph against the system. The book is highly recommended for the London Spectator. He now writes for The second story line is the many different outlets and occasionally mainstream Americans who don’t comparison of medical care in a understand what has happened to our writes a book. socialized system compared with care I have been a prison doctor for country and want to do something about under free-market capitalism. Thomson it. It should be mandatory reading for 20-plus years, so I was immediately is from Scotland, and had always been a all physicians who care about private attracted to Daniels when I read some proponent of the British National Health medical practice and want to preserve of his essays at New English Review and Service (NHS), like so many who support what is left of individual patient care and in American media such as City Journal, socialized medicine until they actually the patient-physician relationship. and then his books about interactions have to use it. Her struggle to get help with the poor and the drug culture. I Gerard Gianoli, M.D. within the NHS is not a pretty picture. She found his insights and commentary Covington, La. is eventually tossed aside by a system compelling because he understands that shows her little compassion. She poor people and criminals. He is sensible does not give up. She searches on her and clear-eyed about morality and own and finds a specialist in the U.S. who behavior as well as about culture and A Hole In My Life—Battling Chronic can help her. The contrast is not lost on societal dynamics. He is a disciplined, Dizziness, by Philippa Thomson, softcover, those of us who are proponents of free- not emotional psychiatrist, with a hard 244 pp, $12.99, ISBN: 978-0-9935989-0-6, market medicine. edge. I wish that he was more available Philippa Thomson, 2016. The book won the Wishing Shelf Book for people who need a psychiatrist. Award, and a reviewer said, “The author Dr. Daniels understands the human What do you do when you are struck not only has an important tale to tell, but condition as do some of the great with a medical condition that sporadically she delivers it with a gold-tipped pen.” psychiatrists I have known, and this incapacitates you and no one in the To read about Thompson’s trek separates him from some of the muddle- medical establishment knows what to do through the NHS and then through the headed professionals attracted to with you? American system is reason enough to buy psychiatry.

Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons Volume 21 Number 3 Fall 2016 95 Spoilt Rotten is another bravura therefore, to think well. That is the with Frankfurt’s thesis that liberals just Daniels performance. He warns that principle of morality.)” spout the necessary bullshit and never excessive emotion and sentimentality I am adding Spoilt Rotten to other ever check the evidence to see whether get in the way of good sense and rational, books by Dr. Daniels that I have read and their ideas work—they just move on to mature virtuous conduct, in private lives, admired, including Romancing Opiates, some other proposal. public discourse, and policy making. about the myths of opiates, Life at the Voegeli does a fine job of explain- Dr. Daniels gives the problem of excess Bottom, about the poor, and Admirable ing the attractions of liberalism: how it emotions a thorough thrashing and Evasions, about psychological nonsense. is built on delusions, and why the good explains why compassion and empathy His work is a treasure that never feelings generated by liberal advocacy are often phony and solipsistic, making disappoints. are rewarding though not based in people feel good about how wonderful reality. Liberals care about big gen- and well-motivated they supposedly are. John Dale Dunn, M.D., J.D. eral concepts—like social justice and In his witty, refreshing way, Dr. Dan- Brownwood, Tex. elimination of oppression, but they do iels shows that excess sentimentality not really care about real people. They produces bad parenting, bad educational are utopian and selfishly devoted to policies, and improper public policy es- their grand ideas—not to benefits that pecially in law enforcement. Celebration The Pity Party: A Mean-Spirited Diatribe could be achieved in the real world. of victimhood makes all bad behavior Against Liberal Compassion, by William False empathy is a cheap form of self- into a target for medicalization and Voegeli, hardcover, 320 pp, $22.05, ISBN congratulation and gratification. “treatment.” Why punish a criminal act 978-0-06-228929-2, Broadside Books, 2014. Voegeli has repeatedly reminded us when you can pretend the bad actor is that we can’t stop the welfare state. The a victim who needs empathy, and a pill welfare administrative state continues or a pat on the head and some under- This is the second book by William to grow, just a little more slowly when standing and pity, since bad behavior Voegeli, who is currently senior editor conservatives are in charge. That’s because is not an accountable choice, but the of the Claremont Review of Books. His the liberal project offers a seductive product of circumstances? first book, Never Enough, explained why thing—the state as guarantor of safety, Much of this hyper-sentimentality the welfare state always keeps growing, happiness, and ease. Voegeli quotes stems from the immediacy of modern and this one concerns the importance of George Orwell, who said that, given a media coverage. Everyone wants to be on empathy and liberal cant in the socialist choice between freedom and comfort, social media and TV, and media vendors utopian crusade. most people want comfort and security are only too glad to have the constant The monster administrative state rather than the uncertainty of freedom. attention and dollars. was spawned by stupid liberal ideas, he When an administration changes, As Dr. Daniels points out, the plight of writes, and if we are ever to rein in the many programs are still on auto-pilot, the poor or some other victim group can insanity, we need to get into the minds and the means-tested programs grow stir people up to demand that someone of the well-intentioned but misinformed without any restraint. Republicans lack “do something”—and this results in big champions of incompetent “good deeds” the will to say no. The dynamic is to give flows of money. whether they come from the left or the more and never take back. Margaret Socialism and all liberalism are built right. Thatcher said it best—”The trouble on sentimentality and the exploitation Chapter 4 is bluntly entitled “How with socialism is that eventually you of empathy and compassion. Rarely do Liberal Compassion Leads to Bullshit.” run out of other people’s money.” That people on the left insist on rationality and It borrows from the work of Princeton reality apparently doesn’t temper the practical, sensible approaches to societal philosophy professor Henry Frankfurt continued attraction of the seductive problems, with careful assessment of the a theory that is now 70 years old and ideological lie. effects of supposed solutions. Too often not a crude recent invention. Frankfurt It is hard to imagine a solution to they excuse stupid policy with good settled on the phrase to describe the bull- the problem, but restraining the wel- intentions, and accept programs that session nature of the liberal project— fare state is essential. may even make things worse, because exaggerated tales, failure to recognize The reader might enjoy an in- they are blindly focused on feeling good evidence, and puffery. terview of Voegeli by Peter Robin- about their motives and intentions. Bullshit, writes Frankfurt, is defined by son, available at http://library.fora. Daniels writes: “The cult of feeling its “lack of connection to a concern with tv/2011/02/09/Uncommon_Knowl- destroys the ability to think, or even the truth.” In some circumstances, a lack of edge_William_Voegeli. awareness that it is necessary to think. concern with truth is not simply the result Pascal was absolutely right when he of a speaker’s phoniness, but is a shared said: Travaillons donc à bien penser. Voilà communicative premise. John Dale Dunn, M.D., J.D. le principe de la morale. (Let us labour, Voegeli and I agree enthusiastically Brownwood, Tex.

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