Priming the Voter: Assessing the Implications of Economic Perceptions on Evaluations of Leaders and Parties

Canadian Political Science Review Vol. 9, No. 1, 2015, 92-111 Priming the Voter: Assessing the Implications of Economic Perceptions on Evaluations of Leaders and Parties David McGrane Department of Political Studies, St. Thomas More College, University of Saskatchewan - Email address: [email protected] Kirk Clavelle Department of Political Studies, University of Saskatchewan (Alumnus) - Email address: [email protected] Loleen Berdahl Department of Political Studies, University of Saskatchewan - Email address: [email protected] Abstract: This article examines the effects of economic perceptions on party leader evaluations and on the overall feelings of voters towards the various parties contesting the election. We find that positive feelings towards incumbent parties and premiers and negative feelings towards the primary opposition parties and their leaders increase when voters feel that the provincial economy is strong. However, such ‘sociotropic’ economic perceptions do not affect feelings towards third parties and their leaders. In this sense, economic perceptions are important for the battle between the governing party and its primary challenger: they prime voters to like either the incumbent party and Premier, or like the government-in-waiting and the Premier-in-waiting. On the other hand, voters’ evaluations of third parties and their leaders seem to be based on factors other than economic perceptions. Keywords: economy, sociotropic, economic perceptions, voters Résumé: Au lieu d'examiner l'effet des perceptions économiques sur le choix de vote, cet article examine les effets des perceptions économiques sur l'évaluation des chefs des partis et les effets des perceptions économiques sur les sentiments généraux des électeurs à l'égard des différents partis politiques. Nous constatons que des sentiments positifs envers les partis et les premiers ministres actuels et des sentiments négatifs envers les partis de l'opposition et leurs chefs augmentent lorsque les électeurs estiment que l'économie provinciale est forte. Cependant, les perceptions économiques « sociotropiques » n’affectent pas les sentiments envers les troisièmes partis et leurs chefs. En ce sens, les perceptions économiques sont importantes pour la bataille entre le parti au pouvoir et son adversaire principal: ils peuvent renfoncer la tendance des électeurs d’aimer le gouvernement et le Premier Ministre ou d’aimer le parti et son chef qui ont la plus la chance de faire tomber le gouvernement. D'autre part, les évaluations des électeurs envers les troisièmes partis et leurs chefs semblent être fondées sur des facteurs autres que les perceptions économiques. Mots-clés: l’économie, sociotropic, perceptions économique, les électeurs 92 Canadian Political Science Review Vol. 9, No. 1, 2015, 92-111 Theoretical Framework evaluations of incumbent parties and incumbent leaders as well as evaluations The importance of economic of primary opposition parties and their conditions to electoral fortunes is a leaders. It is found that voters who feel truism in politics; it is often assumed, that the provincial economy is going well rightly or wrongly, that voters reward are more apt to like the incumbent party incumbent governments electorally when and Premier, whereas voters who feel economic times are good, and punish the that the provincial economy is going same governments when times are bad. poorly are more apt to dislike the primary These assumptions have been examined opposition party and its leader. However, in academic research and a robust third party evaluations and third party literature examines the relationship leader evaluations are not influenced by between the economy and voting; economic perceptions. In this sense, researchers have found that the public’s economic perceptions matter for the main perceptions of the state of the economy battle of provincial election campaigns: often influence voters’ propensity to they prime voters to support either the punish or reward incumbent incumbent party and Premier or the governments by voting for or against the government-in-waiting and the Premier- incumbent party. Economic factors are by in-waiting. On the other hand, voters’ no means considered the only influence evaluations of third parties and their on how citizens decide which party to leaders seem to be evaluated on other support, but they have been factors. demonstrated to have relevance. What is Before examining the scant less clear in existing research is the literature on economic considerations impact of economic considerations on and voters’ evaluations of political parties voters’ evaluations of leaders and their and leaders, it is important to explore the political parties (i.e. how much voters large and sophisticated literature on vote report liking leaders and political parties choice and economic considerations (i.e. regardless of if they actually voted for economic voting theory). At the heart of them). economic voting theory is the belief that This article does not examine the average voters take into account how a influence of economic perceptions on government handles the economy and which party citizens ultimately choose to their perceptions of the current economic vote for on Election Day (i.e. vote choice). conditions when voting (Anderson, 2010: For an examination of the effect of 140). Simply put, it is argued that voters economic perceptions on vote choice in hold the incumbent government recent Canadian provincial elections, accountable for their current economic readers are instructed to explore the situation (Happy, 1986: 47). Voters award article in this special edition by Roy and incumbent governments in good McGrane. Rather, this article examines the economic times by voting for the effect of economic perceptions on voters’ incumbent party and punish incumbent feelings towards all of the party leaders governments in bad economic times by and political parties contesting an voting for opposition parties. Economic election. The central finding of the article voting theory began with Anthony is that the ‘reward/punish’ logic of Downs’s seminal work, An Economic economic voting theory applies to the Theory of Democracy (1957). Downs 93 Canadian Political Science Review Vol. 9, No. 1, 2015, 92-111 argues that voters make rational In the economic voting literature, decisions when voting to determine the distinction between retrospective and which party will give them the most prospective perceptions is important as utility, with ‘utility’ defined as the voters will take into account how well economic and political benefits that a they did economically under a current voter receives from voting for a party government, as well as how well they (1957: 36-37). Voters use their expect to do economically in the future perceptions of utility to assess the current under the same government, or another government; if the personal utility of an party (Nadeau et al., 2000: 79). While incumbent government is perceived as some studies examine all four types of high, voters will vote for the incumbent economic perceptions, most survey government, whereas if the personal datasets include only one or two utility of an incumbent government is measures of economic perception. perceived as low, voters will cast a vote International studies suggest that against the incumbent government economic perceptions often – but not (Downs, 1957: 38-39). always – matter when citizens are Economic voting research extends deciding which party to vote for (Clarke back to the 1960s and includes myriad and Stewart, 1994: 1116; Lanoue, 1994: studies from the United States, Europe, 198-199; Nannestad and Paldam, 1995, and Australia (Kramer 1971; Powell and 1997; Anderson et al., 2004: 12-15). In Whitten, 1997 Lewis-Beck, 1986; Kinder Canada, Nadeau et al.’s study of the 1997 and Kiewiet, 1979; Fiorina, 1978; federal election found that all four types Nannestad and Paldam, 1997). Canadian of perceptions influence vote choice, with researchers have also used economic prospective and retrospective sociotropic voting theory as a way to understand voting perceptions having greater federal vote choice (Happy, 1986, 1989, influence (Nadeau et al., 2000: 81). 1992; Archer and Johnson, 1988; Anderson’s analysis of federal elections Carmichael, 1990; Gelineau and Belanger, from 1988-2006 found that all four types 2005; Nadeau and Blais, 1993; Nadeau et of economic perceptions influence al., 2000; Anderson, 2010). Research has incumbent vote choice to some degree, considered the effect of the influence of with sociotropic perceptions having more individuals’ subjective perceptions of the impact than egocentric perceptions, and economy on voting behaviour. In the prospective sociotropic perceptions being perceptions studies, researchers be more salient then retrospective ones generally distinguish between two broad (Anderson, 2010: 155). types of economic perceptions, The influence of subjective sociotropic and egocentric, and two broad perceptions of the strength of the timeframes, retrospective and economy and perceptions of one’s prospective. As such, there are four types personal financial position on vote choice of economic perceptions that can be has been questioned. Particularly, there is considered: retrospective egocentric, doubt cast on the usage of individual retrospective sociotropic, prospective cross-sectional data and the resulting egocentric, and prospective sociotropic endogeneity (i.e. the independent variable (see Table 1). is correlated with

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