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Morning Focus November 12, 2018 Korea Morning Focus Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) Celltrion (068270/Buy/TP: W335,000) Lower TP KOSPI 2,092.63 13.94 0.67 3Q18 review: Tailwinds remain KOSPI 200 272.11 1.66 0.61 KOSDAQ 693.67 11.30 1.66 Osstem Implant (048260/Buy/TP: W64,000) Earnings finally surprise to the upside Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value YG Entertainment (122870/Buy/TP: W60,000) KOSPI 322,591 5,870 KOSPI 200 98,098 4,620 Global platform revenue exhibits strong growth KOSDAQ 739,389 3,318 Emart (139480/Buy/TP: W320,000) Market Cap (Wbn) 3Q18 review: Look toward the future Value KOSPI 1,403,264 Hyundai Department Store (069960/Buy/TP: W125,000) KOSDAQ 229,338 3Q18 review: Stronger-than-expected results KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 1,760 1,273 486 Institutional 1,693 1,916 -223 Retail 2,359 2,637 -278 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 376 349 27 Institutional 233 354 -120 Retail 2,685 2,591 93 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 1,819 1,437 381 KOSDAQ 194 241 -48 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 718 131 47 KOSDAQ 1,017 182 61 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Samsung Electronics 44,050 50 549 KODEX KOSDAQ150 LEVERAGE 12,480 275 342 Hynix 72,900 2,100 286 Digital Power Communication 8,250 670 277 KODEX LEVERAGE 12,125 205 220 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Chorokbaem Media 2,290 340 158 SillaJen 75,600 -600 124 Posco Chemtech 76,800 4,300 94 Celltrion Healthcare 70,800 800 85 HLB 96,300 -1,200 83 Note: As of November 08, 2018 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research This document is a summary of a report prepared by Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Mirae Asset Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Celltrion (068270 KS ) 3Q18 review: Tailwinds remain Healthcare 3Q18 review: Earnings widely miss expectations Results Comment For 3Q18, Celltrion reported consolidated revenue of W231.1bn (-0.4% YoY) and operating profit of W73.6bn (-44.2% YoY), missing our expectations and the consensus November 12, 2018 by a wide margin. Revenue was weaker than expected, affected by a roughly 15% price cut on Truxima supplies to Celltrion Healthcare. Still, we believe overall revenue held up well, given that there were no Remsima sales in the quarter and that Herzuma only accounted for 2% of revenue. (Maintain) Buy Margin erosion was attributable to: 1) the suspension of the company’s no. 1 plant due to a 50,000-liter capacity expansion; 2) higher expenses related to patent litigations for Target Price (12M, W) ▼ 335,000 the prompt US release of Truxima and Herzuma; and 3) increased R&D expenses stemming from the Financial Supervisory Service’s (FSS) guidelines on the accounting Share Price (11/09/18, W) 229,500 treatment of R&D expenses by pharmaceutical/biotech firms. A number of tailwinds remain Expected Return 46% While the latest results were indeed disappointing, we still see a number of tailwinds ahead. First, we expect Truxima and Herzuma to gain US approval by the end of the year. Truxima is particularly worth watching, as the US FDA’s Oncologic Drugs Advisory OP (18F, Wbn) 401 Committee unanimously voted 16-0 to recommend the approval of the biosimilar in Consensus OP (18F, Wbn) 507 October. In addition, rival Sandoz recently abandoned plans to seek the US approval of its Rituxan biosimilar Rixathon, which should enable Truxima to benefit from a first- EPS Growth (18F, %) -25.5 mover advantage in the US. Second, we believe the company will file for European Market EPS Growth (18F, %) 11.3 approval of Remsima SC, the subcutaneous version of Remsima, by the end of the year. P/E (18F, x) 96.4 Data presented at academic meetings show the subcutaneous version is comparable Market P/E (18F, x) 8.4 to the intravenous formulation, and we therefore believe the company’s Remsima KOSPI 2,086.09 portfolio is well-positioned to expand its market position. Lastly, there is a possibility that a third factory with capacity of 360,000 liters will be constructed. The company Market Cap (Wbn) 28,778 said last month that details have not yet been decided, but if announced, the plan will Shares Outstanding (mn) 125 likely trigger a re-rating in the company’s enterprise value and share price. Free Float (%) 66.6 Foreign Ownership (%) 19.8 Cut TP to W335,000, but maintain Buy Beta (12M) 1.10 We cut our target price on Celltrion to W335,000 (from W400,000), as we adjusted 52-Week Low 167,668 down our earnings estimates to reflect lower supply prices and higher expenses. Still, we maintain our Buy rating, as we believe: 1) the US approval of Truxima and Herzuma 52-Week High 373,500 and the announcement of a third plant will provide positive momentum to shares; 2) (%) 1M 6M 12M Truxima and Herzuma will continue to rapidly penetrate the European ma rket; and 3) Absolute -20.9 -11.4 36.9 the US market environment is turning increasingly favorable (e.g., the US FDA’s announcement of a Biosimilar Action Plan and growing calls for biosimilars from Relative -14.5 3.8 67.4 patient advocate groups). 270 Celltrion KOSPI However, investors should bear in mind that the impact of the no. 1 plant suspension 220 will likely last through 1H19 and that Temasek could sell additional shares in the company. 170 120 70 11.17 3.18 7.18 11.18 Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ Biotech/Healthcare ] FY (Dec.) 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F Revenue (Wbn) 603 671 949 984 1,253 1,840 Taehee Kim +822 -3774 -6813 OP (Wbn) 259 250 522 401 541 848 [email protected] OP margin (%) 43.0 37.3 55.0 40.8 43.2 46.1 Seunglok Huh NP (Wbn) 154 178 399 298 425 671 +822 -3774 -1374 EPS (W) 1,261 1,427 3,195 2,380 3,323 5,147 [email protected] ROE (%) 10.5 9.5 17.8 11.6 14.5 19.3 P/E (x) 62.6 73.8 69.2 96.4 69.1 44.6 P/B (x) 5.5 6.4 11.2 10.4 9.4 7.9 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates November 12, 2018 Celltrion Table 1. 3Q18 review (Wbn, %) Mirae Asset 3Q17 2Q18 3Q18 YoY QoQ Consensus Daewoo Revenue 232.1 263.4 231.1 -0.4 -12.3 285.3 256.3 Operating profit 131.8 105.8 73.6 -44.2 -30.4 129.8 115.5 OP margin (%) 56.8 40.1 31.9 45.5 45.1 Net profit 102.9 80.5 56.2 -45.4 -30.2 98.9 91.2 Note: Net profit is attributable to controlling interests Source: FnGuide, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 2. Earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, W, %, %p) Previous Revised Change Notes 2018F 2019F 2018F 2019F 2018F 2019F Revenue 1,149 1,518 984 1,253 -14.3 -17.4 Supply price cuts Operating Suspension of no. 1 plant and R&D 517 737 401 541 -22.4 -26.6 profit expense accounting changes Net profit 391 587 299 426 -23.6 -27.3 EPS 3,113 4,573 2,380 3,323 -23.6 -27.3 BPS 22,852 26,467 22,119 24,536 -3.2 -7.3 OP margin 45.0 48.5 40.7 43.2 -4.2 -5.4 Net margin 34.1 38.6 30.4 34.0 -3.7 -4.6 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Osstem Implant (048260 KQ) Earnings finally surprise to the upside MedTech 3Q18 review: OP surprises to the upside Results Comment For 3Q18, Osstem Implant delivered revenue of W114bn (+14.5% YoY), in line with the consensus. Overall growth was driven by overseas revenue, which climbed 16.2% YoY. November 12, 2018 By region, revenue was up 10.9% YoY in China, 20.4% YoY in North America, and 48.1% YoY in Europe, and down 0.3% YoY in Asia. Domestic revenue was up 10.1% YoY. Operating profit surprised to the upside, soaring 173.7% YoY to W12.2bn (OP margin of 10.7%).
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