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Office Or Hotel? – “Grand Paris” – Coworking Spaces – March 2018 InsightsReal Estate Offi ce or hotel? – Conversion as an optimisation strategy Coworking spaces – A growing niche market “Grand Paris” – Urban development: project of the century Contents 3 Macroeconomics The economy and labour markets continue to improve, labour market in fl ux. 4 Flexible offi ce market Editorial in London The world’s largest coworking market Dear readers has lessons for European cities. The economic recovery in Europe has long since extended to commercial real estate. Demand for high-quality properties to let and for sale is currently higher than it’s been in a long time. This is causing an upturn in construction in many markets, as evidenced by the development area of the colossal 6 project known as “Grand Paris”. Coworking spaces in Switzerland “Offi ce or hotel?” Properties in less attractive locations, on the other hand, Digitalisation and tertiary sector are not necessarily benefi ting from the market upturn, so owners and driving demand. providers are starting to think more about a constructive conversion strategy. At the same time, we also note demand from new user groups for open-space solutions and individually designed spaces conducive to innovation. The working world is changing and the workplace is changing with it. Even 8 companies are starting to focus increasingly on a more fl exible working Grand Paris project environment and demand from coworking providers is growing. Massive infrastructure programme strengthens the capital’s international I wish you an enjoyable read and new insights into the current theme competitive position. of “offi ce markets”. 10 From offi ce to hotel Conversion: an optimisation strategy Stefan Mächler and opportunity in the German market. Group Chief Investment Offi cer Macroeconomic environment Whilst the economy gains momentum, the way we work is evolving Economies in Europe continue to exceed forecasts. Labour markets are healing and certain countries are nearing full employment. Meanwhile, the nature of work is undergoing radical change. Sylvia Walter, Senior Economist, Swiss Life Asset Managers Francesca Boucard, Economist Real Estate, Swiss Life Asset Managers European economies are in the midst of a Growth of total employment since the start global cyclical upturn. Even laggards such of the millennium, indexed as Greece, Switzerland and Italy are pick- 122.5 ing up speed. The UK economy has fared 120.0 better than many expected, despite the Brexit uncertainties, but softening growth 117.5 dynamics seem likely going forward. Fears 115.0 112.5 110.0 Consumer 107.5 confi dence in the 2017=100 Q1 Index, 105.0 102.5 Eurozone has 100.0 reached its highest 97.5 level since 2000. 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Switzerland Germany UK France Source: National Statistical Offi ces that the currency union might break up (which has been more stable than else- change require swift adjustments. This en- have subsided since the election of Emma- where throughout the crises) is declining vironment presents new challenges and nuel Macron as French president last and the UK’s jobless rate has hit a 42-year demands. The resulting changes to physi- spring. Entrepreneurs increasingly believe low against all odds. cal workplaces also oblige real estate man- in the sustainability of the recovery. Con- The employment picture (see above) agers and investors to adapt to these sumer confi dence in the Eurozone has looks equally rosy. However, even though trends. reached its highest level since the turn of the number of people at work is reaching the millennium. record levels in many places, economies are In line with strengthening economic less successful at delivering pay rises. Most momentum, labour markets throughout of the job creation is occurring in the ser- Europe are recovering, albeit at different vice sector, where work has become ever Knowledge-based speeds and with varying magnitude. Ger- more fl exible, mobile and virtual. Tempo- many is almost at full employment, the rary employment contracts, a rising share economy and global Swiss unemployment rate (which was of low-skilled workers and migration fl ows comparatively low anyway) started to de- are impacting the labour market. The change require cline a year ago, French unemployment knowledge-based economy and global swift adjustments. Insights Real Estate 3 United Kingdom The rise, and rise, of London’s fl exible offi ce market London is a fl exible workspace pioneer where new concepts and models are often tested before being applied elsewhere. Understanding the type of space on offer, its impact on broader occupational demand and the landlord response therefore has lessons for all European markets. Tom Duncan, Senior Analyst, Mayfair Capital Flexible workspaces – variously called and applied to other markets. What hap- Work aspires to double its footprint in coworking, serviced or shared offi ces – are pens in London today, therefore, is a bell- 2018 and is now London’s largest private a major feature of London’s offi ce mar- wether for what could happen in major office occupier. The sector is diverse, ket. In 2017 they accounted for 20% of European offi ce markets tomorrow. though, with a range of providers focusing take-up compared to less than 1% in 2008. on different niches – be it workspace- Some 4% of offi ce space in London is now A varied offering themed around certain sectors or mod- occupied by fl exible workspaces, the high- WeWork has been leading the charge in elled on a service-oriented hotel. est proportion globally. London, committing to or occupying London has become a test-bed for 232,300 sq. m. (2.5 million sq ft) ranging Multiple factors drive growth fl exible models which are then adapted from single fl oors to entire buildings. We- Flexible workspaces have traditionally Flexible workspace take-up in London 1996 – 2017 20% 2,500,000 18% West End 16% City 2,000,000 East London 14% % of total take-up 12% 1,500,000 Source: Mayfair Capital / JLL 10% 8% 1,000,000 Take-up (sqft) Take-up 6% %age of total take-up 500,000 4% 2% 0 0% 2011 2017 2015 2012 2013 2014 2016 2010 1997 1996 1998 1999 2001 2007 2005 2002 2003 2009 2006 2008 2004 2000 4 Insights Real Estate United Kingdom lacked choice, offering a basic and expen- clusive fee without a long contract. This is sive short-term solution. As a result, they an area that was previously under-served London has become were used as satellite offi ces, overfl ow by landlords. a test-bed for space or a temporary option whilst occu- Societal changes have fuelled the sec- piers found a permanent home. tor too. Talent is increasingly footloose fl exible models which That has changed as costs have re- and able to work from anywhere. Modern are then adapted duced and demand for shorter leases has offi ces must work hard to attract talent grown. Online platforms have increased and enable its productivity. Offi ces need to and applied to other the speed and ease of fl exible workspace be user-focused, amenity-rich and engag- markets. transactions. Strong employment growth ing places that give employees a choice as in small enterprises has fuelled demand to how and where they work. In response, for small tenancies available for an all-in- flexible workspaces have developed a strong experience-led environment. yet unproven business model to occupy so The future outlook much space. Whatever happens though, The extent of occupier demand for more fl exible workspace is here to stay – as is the fl exible workspace in London is uncertain. impact on occupiers’ expectations. Modern offi ces Growth will require large corporates to For investors, this means that the must work hard embrace the model. It will also depend on ability of offi ces to attract and retain occu- the staying power of their existing occu- piers in the future will be more closely re- to attract talent pier base in market downturns, which has lated to amenity and user experience. An not yet been tested. It is unclear whether, in element of flexible workspace within and enable a less tenant-favourable market, landlords buildings could be viewed as an advantage productivity. would have been as willing to allow an as- for securing occupier diversity and provid- ing choice rather than as a covenant risk. If landlords elect to operate these workspa- ces themselves, opportunities for income creation will arise. Flexible workspaces provide Source: WeWork amenity-rich and engaging spaces. Insights Real Estate 5 Switzerland Coworking spaces: an attractive niche segment Coworking spaces are the next big thing in Switzerland. The trend is mainly being driven by the growing importance of the service sector and digitalisation. Although the traditional offi ce is not likely to be replaced in the near future, coworking spaces constitute a dynamic niche segment of interest to real estate investors. Alfonso Tedeschi, Real Estate Product & Service Manager, Swiss Life Asset Managers Number of coworking spaces by canton 1 Basel 5 2 1 5 14 Zurich 3 6 1 3 Bern 3 1 9 2 3 9 1 10 Geneva 2 Source: Coworking Switzerland/ Swiss Life Asset Managers Coworking spaces have emerged in recent Switzerland’s fi rst coworking space opened 70,000 sq. m. They still only account for a years as an alternative to the conventional in 2007 and today there are over 80 such modest proportion of Switzerland’s total offi ce. They are popular not only among spaces in the “Coworking Switzerland” offi ce space (just over 0.1%) but a glance at freelancers, creative types and start-ups, network. According to a study by Wüest more developed coworking markets points but also – because of their great fl exibility Partner, there are currently about 6700 to the dormant potential of this niche seg- and potential for cost savings – among coworking workplaces on offer in Switzer- ment.
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