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Muslim Societies in Postnormal Times Offers an Alternative Where We Can ‘Rescue’ and Decolonise Our Futures

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Muslim Societies in Postnormal Times Offers an Alternative Where We Can ‘Rescue’ and Decolonise Our Futures MUSLIM SOCIETIES IN MUSLIM SOCIETIES IN POSTNORMAL TIMES POSTNORMAL TIMES MUSLIM SOCIETIES IN Where will Muslim societies be tomorrow? The world is increasingly and constantly POSTNORMAL TIMES changing, making it hard to keep up. This makes the state much more dire and trouble- some for those already marginalised – particularly Muslim societies. Normal is no longer Foresight for Trends, Emerging Issues and Scenarios capable of upholding the promise of tomorrow’s certainty. These are postnormal times. In this storm of ignorance and uncertainty, Muslim societies stand to lose the most. But this is not destiny. In the cultivation of a new type of literacy – futures literacy – there resides a hope. Muslim Societies in Postnormal Times offers an alternative where we can ‘rescue’ and decolonise our futures. Sardar, Serra, and Jordan take an open and plural approach to the future revealing the true potentials that lie before us. Through detailed Post-Truths Artificial Intelligence FuturesPost-Truths Artificial Intelligence analysis of contemporary trends, the road to destruction is revealed. Through identifying Futures Chaos Vision IslamophobiaVision IslamophobiaUncertaintyUncertainty Chaos and exploring emerging issues, agency through options can allow for positive change. ChaosChaos Chaos Chaos ComplexityComplexity Technology Technology Pollution Weirdness Pollution Change Weirdness Change And in the extrapolation of these ideas into scenarios, the authors pave the way for us Society Society Foresight Technology Integration of KnowledgeForesight Integration of Knowledge Technology TrendsTrends RobotsRobots to navigate our own preferred futures. Their study challenges the reader to think about Weirdness Weirdness Pollution Chaos Health Pollution Chaos A.I.Health Robots A.I. Robots EmergingScenarios IssuesThought Tawhid Pollution the future in a new way, redefining the monolithic future as three tomorrows (Extended Emerging Issues Tawhid Pollution PostnormalScenarios Times Culture ThoughtWeirdness Weirdness Uncertainty Postnormal Times Culture ForesightChaos Uncertainty Present, Familiar Futures, and Unthought Futures), along the way ever watchful for Black Change Sustainable ForesightVision Change SustainableDisruptive Technologies Foresight EnergyChaos Health Knowledge Creation Disruptive Technologies Foresight Health Vision Chaos Ziauddin Sardar, Jordi Serra and Scott Jordan and Scott Jordi Serra Sardar, Ziauddin Energy KnowledgeForesight Creation Swans, Black Elephants, and the illustrious Black Jellyfish that could disrupt the path ahead. Futures Advancing Education Chaos Chaos VisionComplexity Futures AdvancingUnthought futures EducationVision Familiar Futures Foresight Chaos VisionComplexityCulture The authors pull no punches in critically evaluating the possibilities and nightmares that Unthought futures Vision Familiar Futures Migration Extended Present Vision Culture MigrationBackcasting Finance could potentially befall Muslim societies. Through a display of creativity and imagina- Vision Vision Vision Population Extended PresentMuslim Societies Unthought futures BackcastingCulture Disruptive Technologies Vision Foresight VisionIslam Finance tion, this book looks beyond the conventional to illuminate impacts in the context of the Health Islamophobia PopulationGlobal Warming Muslim Societies Unthought futures Anxiety Culture Disruptive Technologies Foresight Islam Social media complex, interconnected world we find ourselves in. This informative and enlightening Health IslamophobiaComplexityGlobal Warming text will push readers to see beyond popular, yet native notions of present and future. In Anxiety Complexity Social media the exposition of the reader’s ignorance and uncertainty, they will begin to look for the unthought and take agency in recolonising and navigating their preferred tomorrow. Ziauddin Sardar Jordi Serra Scott Jordan MUSLIM SOCIETIES IN POSTNORMAL TIMES MUSLIM SOCIETIES IN POSTNORMAL TIMES Foresight for Trends, Emerging Issues and Scenarios Ziauddin Sardar, Jordi Serra and Scott Jordan Published in United Kingdom 2019 by International Institute of Islamic ought, in cooperation with Centre for Postnormal Policy & Futures Studies. www.iiit.org www.cppfs.org www.postnormaltim.es © Copyright 2019 International Institute of Islamic ought, and Centre for Postnormal Policy & Futures Studies. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher except in the case of brief quotations embedded in critical articles or reviews. A CIP catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN 978-1-56564-992-7 eISBN 978-1-64205-260-2 Designed and typeset by Wordzworth Books, UK Printed in USA CONTENTS FOREWORD vii OVERVIEW xi TRENDS 1 Introduction 2 Population and Youth 5 Environment and Liveability 11 Pollution and Endangered Cities 18 Migration and Refugees 23 Politics and Governance 27 Economy and Energy 33 Science and Technology 42 Armed Conflicts and Terrorism 46 Cyberattacks and Cyberwars 50 Education and Creativity 54 Health and Wellbeing 61 Gender Inequality 69 Religion and Culture 73 Entertainment and Sports 80 Islamophobia and the Rise of the Alt-Right 87 Social Media and Artificial Intelligence 93 Islam and Religious Thought 102 Uncertainty and Ignorance 106 Anxiety and Weirdness 110 v EMERGING ISSUES 115 Introduction 116 The Black Elephant in the Room… 121 The Black Swan on the Winter Lake… 151 The Black Jellyfish in the Sea of Chaos… 172 SCENARIOS 199 Introduction 200 The Extended Present Scenarios 205 Familiar Futures Scenarios 216 Unthought Futures Scenarios 228 LAST WORD 233 FOREWORD Just before his death in March 2018, the cel- societies and the world at large? ese ques- ebrated British physicist Stephen Hawking tions require our urgent attention. declared that humanity was entering ‘an increasing dangerous period of our history’. e actions and decision we take today have He was concerned about the possible perilous profound consequences for the future. Even outcomes of super smart articial intelligence a simple individual act, such as using a plastic (AI). What could happen, Hawking asked, bag, can have an impact, and on a global scale if AI transcends our own intelligence, and can create a major footprint for tomorrow. machines proceed to improve themselves at e invention of plastics, a marvel in its day, an exponential rate? What will become of a miracle substance with endless possibilities, us then? But AI is not the only threat facing has now become an environmental and eco- humankind. Climate change is leading to logical disaster. Plastic, a material that can rising sea levels and oceans are becoming be shaped into almost any form for use by warmer. Global warming could make many humankind, has inadvertently shaped an cities inhabitable; and the very diversity of our undesirable outcome for the environment planet is seriously at risk. e overuse of anti- and a fragile ecology, adversely aecting many biotics has led to the rise of antibiotic resistant marine species, which in turn contaminate bacteria. e World Health Organisation the food chain on which humans depend. (WHO) has declared antibiotic resistance as If we are to avoid a similar scenario in the a major threat to public health worldwide. future, perhaps with some other substance, industrial process or emerging technology, ese and many other recent developments then we need to learn lessons from the past, raise a number of rudimentary questions. and take appropriate steps in the present, to What kind of future are we shaping for our- better shape a desirable outcome for the next selves and our planet? What risks and dangers generations of humanity. lurk over the horizon – in the near and not do distant future? Do we have a sense of direc- It is therefore essential for us, as individu- tion? And what kind of society and world do als, communities and nations, to develop a we wish to live in as well as leave behind, for sense of direction: an awareness of where we ourselves, for our children, and future gen- are heading, alertness to the potential conse- erations? What can we, as Muslims, do to quences of our current activities and choices, shape a more viable future both for Muslim and an understanding of the global cost of vii viii | MUSLIM SOCIETIES IN POSTNORMAL TIMES our individual and collective decisions. is, in articial intelligence, we need to focus on in turn, requires us to have a modicum of more ‘ancient’ questions of increasing human appreciation of how the future unfolds, and suering, war, and poverty, which still remain the accelerating changes that are hurtling us unsolved, and in fact become more potent towards undesirable prospects. In short, all of given the scale of inequality and injustice that us have to become futures literate. now shroud the globe. UNESCO denes futures literacy as a ‘capa- Indeed, issues of social justice, income bility that oers insight into both the reason disparity, unemployment, environment, tech- and the methods humans employ when they nological and cultural disruption are perhaps anticipate’; it is a ‘skill that allows people to more acute and urgent in the Muslim world better understand the role the future plays in than elsewhere. is is the central message of what they see and do’. When thinking about Muslim Societies in Postnormal Times, the and exploring the future we need to appreci- second book in the IIIT series on Futures. ate that there is not one but many alternative Sardar, Serra
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