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2019 Investment Review FP

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2019 Investment Review FP Real estate capital markets respond that retail centres which are primarily corporates consider their re-entry into to Covid-19 line shop weighted will suffer the most. the working environment. Social distancing measures will mean that Over the short term, investment The e-commerce “boom” will reduce current office spaces may not be able activity is expected to slow as foot traffic and trade densities in to accommodate employee head- valuation challenges, and broader conventional retail malls, as count volumes as done previously. uncertainty create barriers to consumers opt for online Where the business environment will investors’ ability to price risk purchases. This will have an adverse invariably experience a contraction appropriately. effect on larger entertainment and from an operational perspective, leisure based retail centres. the subsequent demand for office Defensive sectors such as healthcare space may not be influenced to the and logistics continue to garner In contrast, grocery anchored retail same degree. Whilst many staff may interest as active investors consider should be better suited to weather the be required to work from home, the income stability, operational ability storm. Specifically, we foresee smaller reduced headcount demand may be and occupational density to be critical convenience centres (7,000-8,000 sqm) partially offset by the increase in factors in mitigating asset-level risk. and rural-based retail centres (30,000- personal space requirements. 35,000 sqm) recovering the quickest, Despite some liquidity across debt as the market recovers. Accordingly, the flexible space sector is and equity, lenders and investors alike likely to undergo significant remain in a phase of ‘price discovery’ SA office outlook consolidation, although, in the long and asset management. In the short to medium term, it is run, it will remain a key feature of anticipated that office vacancies will office markets. Despite the current Regardless of fluctuations in continue to rise, whilst rentals will switch to remote mass working, the sentiment and activity, the overall decrease. In order to minimise risks physical office will maintain its trend has been for higher allocations associated with constrained cash- importance for facilitating interaction to real estate, and we see no reason flows, tenants will most likely and collaboration and, ultimately, for this trend to reverse over the advocate shorter lease lengths. for employee health, well-being and medium to long term given the productivity. advantages of real estate investments. As new developments come to market and attract tenants away from existing SA industrial outlook SA retail outlook stock, the risk of rising vacancies and reduced rentals remains imminent. The Industrial sector in South Africa Retail has been one of the most Rosebank, Waterfall and Sandton are has shown resilience, with segment adversely impacted sectors in the particularly at risk, with the highest leading year-on-year capital growth wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. Trade development activity. Subsequently, backed by low vacancy rates. The restrictions that compromise business it is expected that speculative office sector has been supported by a operations, has seen landlords collect development will dampen, whilst growing demand for warehouse and as little as 40%-50% of their rentals tenant-driven, pre-let developments distribution space due to the in April and May. This trend is set to will become more common. significant growth in online retail sales, continue until markets normalise. albeit from a relatively low base. Outlook Banks are starting to move away from Business shutdowns have caused Net expanding their office portfolios, E-commerce is expected to strengthen Operating Income (NOI) instability, opting to rather scale down and as consumer preference and compromising investment sentiment. consolidate. With the exception of behaviours change, with increased Without determinable NOI or discounted P-grade spaces with long- market penetration as a result of more Scope of Analysis substantial discounts, it is very lease deals and highly opportunistic accessible and affordable unlikely that any sales will take place deals, we anticipate that very few technologies. This report reviews investment activity in the South African commercial real estate market and analyses key trends for the next six months, if not longer. office transactions will take place observed from investment sales data. Data has been sourced from publicly available announced media reports, In line with this outlook, prime retail over the short term. B and sub-grade Although logistics is expected to research by Real Capital Analytics (RCA), and Lightstone Property Toolkit, among other sources. This report provides yields remain uncertain over the short office spaces are expected to suffer the perform well, we do not forsee the an update to the 2018 Investment Review report published by JLL and analysis of significant transactions in South term. most. sector side stepping the downturn Africa’s commercial property market over the period 2016 to 2020. Sectors of analysis include office, industrial and entirely. Smaller, speculative spaces retail. While the analysis is focused on shifts in transactional trends in 2019, deals concluded from 2020 to date (May) From an operator perspective, line Whilst the demand for office space is will see rises in vacancies, whilst larger have been included. shops have been the most expected to decline in response to boxes may seek to consolidate and vulnerable, with many being forced to business consolidations and a improve operational efficiency. The total transactions reported do not reflect all activity in the market, but present the majority of transactions in the close because of limited capital contracting economy, the use of listed and unlisted space over this period, with smaller sales excluded. resilience. As a result, it is anticipated traditional office space may vary as 2019 / 20 Market Overview Asset classes slide into downturn 2019, the average capital value per in South Africa, driving the demand for phase sqm across asset classes, declined warehousing and distribution sharply. This is congruent with the facililties. The economic shock caused by fact that 2019 saw a significant rise Covid-19 will invariably place down- in transaction GLA, while investment Additionally, movement restrictions ward pressure on rental levels and value fell across the board. and new social distancing norms capital values across all market implemented in response to the segments. This trend is expected to Gauteng remains top investment Covid-19 pandemic, will see more persist over the short to medium term, destination for 2020 people persuing online shopping as markets remain in a downturn alternatives. Accordingly, we phase. The Industrial sector however, Gauteng remained the top investment anticipate retail driven warehousing is expected to show some resilience, destination for 2020, albeit at and distribution space demand to with e-commerce driving demand for substantially lower (56%) expand over the short-to-medium warehousing and distribution space. transactional values than the previous term. From a nodal perspective, 2019 equivelant period. To date, the Johannesburg is expected to province holds 62% of transactional Prime yields expected to move outperform due to strong supply and value and takes up 74% of GLA sold. outwards in reponse to market demand fundamentals. conditions Although the Western Cape Investment slows across all dominated retail transactional In reponse to prolonged economic commercial real estate sectors activity (63%), Gauteng was home to contraction and perceptions of the majority of industrial (74%) and increased risk, prime yields are South Africa’s total transaction values office (100%) transactions. This trend anticipated to move outwards over decreased by 20.5% year-on-year, is likely to persist over the medium the short to medium term. reaching R16.7 billion by the end of term, as Gauteng continues to attract 2019. Investment value into the office, interest as the largest investment hub Constrained business cash-flows will industrial and retail sectors all of South Africa. continue to place pressure on the experienced the same trend, tenant’s ability to meet their rental contracting by 23%, 15% and 21% Whilst businesses scale down and obligations, whilst landlords will face respectively. consolidate to preserve cash reserves, new challenges in restructuring lease strategically locating operations will renewals and filling vacancies. Whilst While the value of transactions in become pertinent as businesses interest rate cuts provide temporary 2020 has slowed considerably when gradually return to previous trading relief to the borrower, general compared to the equivalent 2019 levels. market conditions driving these January-to-April period, investment changes often overshadow the benefit sentiment in the industrial space has Industrials edge ahead in 2020 of lower lending rates. shown the most resilience, constituting 46% of 2020’s R1.8 billion While office remained the best These factors all place increased risk spend to date. performing asset class in terms of premium on commercial real estate as transactional value, GLA and volumes an investment option. Accordingly, it is It is important to note that although during 2019, industrial space leads the anticipated that yields will rise. there was marginal increase (2%) in pack in 2020. This comes off the back transaction
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