Down-sizing: exploring the shift of Sydneysiders from the metro to regional cities across NSW

Keenan Jackson September 13, 2018 The Big Picture Australia has experienced extraordinary population growth over the last decade

Added 6 million people since the turn of the century to reach 25 million

3 International migration driving substantial growth

2004 – NSW Net Overseas Migration: 46,000 2017 – NSW Net Overseas Migration: 93,000

4 For most of the last decade, NSW was growing slower than the national average

5 Mining boom transition obvious from regional growth rates

6 Shifting tides of growth

Annual Population Growth Rate

7 Economic transition to services and knowledge favours east coast

National employment trends by industry – Cumulative growth (‘000) since Feb 2010

8 Greater Sydney absorbing most of NSW’s growth

Between 2006 and 2016, NSW added almost a million people. Over three quarters (78%) was absorbed by Greater Sydney.

9 Divergence in growth since 2011

Annual Population Growth Rate

Greater Sydney

Regional NSW

10 Inner Sydney and south western growth areas experienced fastest growth

11 Out-migration from Greater Sydney Marginal ncrease in migration from Greater Sydney to the regions

Between 2011 and 2016 period, 103,000 residents migrated from Greater Sydney to Regional NSW. Up 12,000 from the 91,000 who migrated between 2006 and 2011.

13 Proximity to In-migration vs Distance from Sydney Sydney still 12,000 a key factor Wollongong 10,000

Lake Macquarie 8,000 Shoalhaven

6,000 Wingecarribee Mid-Coast Newcastle

migration migration from Greater Sydney 4,000 -

Bathurst Dubbo 2,000 Orange

Wagga Wagga Level Level in of Albury Tamworth Armidale 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Distance from Sydney's CBD (km)

14 General movements from Greater Sydney locations in nearest proximity

41% Lake Macquarie 22% Newcastle migration from Central migration from Central Coast SA4 Coast SA4

23% of Bathurst migration from Sydney – Outer West SA4 SYDNEY

22% of Wingecarribee 25% of Wollongong migration from Sydney – migration from Sutherland Outer South SA4 SA4

15 City size In-migration vs City Size shows some 12,000 correlation Wollongong 10,000

Lake Macquarie 8,000

Wingecarribee Shoalhaven from from Greater Sydney 6,000 Mid-Coast Newcastle

4,000 migration migration - Wagga Wagga Bathurst 2,000 Orange

Dubbo Tamworth Level Level in of Armidale 0 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Estimated Resident Population 2016

16 Housing In-migration vs Housing (Mortgage) Affordability affordability 12,000 not as Wollongong strong a 10,000 Lake Macquarie driver 8,000

Shoalhaven from from Greater Sydney 6,000 Wingecarribee Mid-Coast Most places have Newcastle cheaper housing

migration migration 4,000 than Sydney, people - Wagga Wagga still willing to trade Bathurst 2,000 Orange Dubbo R² = 0.2965 off affordability for Level in of Tamworth Albury access Armidale 0 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% Median weekly mortgage to income

17 However, In-migration vs Rental Affordability rental 12,000 market Wollongong shows 10,000 Lake Macquarie stronger link 8,000

Shoalhaven from from Greater Sydney 6,000 Wingecarribee Mid-Coast Most places have Newcastle cheaper housing R² = 0.2941

migration migration 4,000 than Sydney, people - Wagga Wagga still willing to trade Bathurst 2,000 Orange Dubbo off affordability for Level in of Tamworth Albury access Armidale 0 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% Median weekly rent to income

18 In inland In-migration vs Unemployment areas, the 12,000 Wollongong labour 10,000 market is Lake Macquarie very 8,000 Shoalhaven

important from Greater Sydney 6,000 Wingecarribee Mid-Coast Newcastle Strong correlation

migration migration 4,000 between - Bathurst unemployment 2,000 Wagga Wagga Orange R² = 0.3983 Dubbo rates and in- Level in of Albury Tamworth Armidale migration from 0 Sydney 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Unemployment Rate

19 In inland In-migration vs Employment Growth areas, the 12,000 labour Wollongong market is 10,000 Lake Macquarie very 8,000

important Shoalhaven from from Greater Sydney 6,000 Mid-Coast Wingecarribee Newcastle Strong correlation

4,000 migration migration between - Wagga Wagga employment growth Bathurst R² = 0.4153 2,000 Orange Dubbo Tamworth

and in-migration Level in of Armidale from Sydney 0 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Employment Growth 2011 - 2016

20 However, the migration story from Sydney is more nuanced Different Typologies Retirement destinations Military Bases 36-40% of all movers to Mid-Coast and Shoalhaven 13% of employed movers to Wagga Wagga were 60 years or over; participation rates of movers were working in defence <50% Large Hospitals Young working professionals 18% of employed movers to Orange were Newcastle - 31% young workforce age (25-34); 25% working in Hospitals and Medical care high income earners; Lower child care rates; 10% Regional Universities Professional services A quarter of all movers to Armidale were Middle class families tertiary student aged; 45% of movers were Lake Macquarie – 40% child care rates; lower degree educated; 30% employed in education rates, higher share middle income earners education

21 Evocities BRISBANE Evocities

ARMIDALE TAMWORTH Evocities is a collection of NSW’s largest inland regional cities. It incorporates the cities of: DUBBO • Albury ORANGE • Armidale BATHURST • Bathurst SYDNEY WAGGA • Dubbo WAGGA CANBERRA • Orange ALBURY • Tamworth • Wagga

MELBOURNE In 2016, the cities had a combined population of almost 300,000 residents.

23 Domestic in-migration levels didn’t change much, but international migration up

Level of domestic Level of 2011 2016 in-migration international 2011 2016 Evocities 48,465 48,492  migration Albury 7,902 8,735  Evocities 5,938 7,847  Albury 1,219 1,075  Armidale 5,733 5,465  Armidale 1,025 1,365  Bathurst 6,846 6,452  Bathurst 519 614  Dubbo 6,396 6,384  Dubbo 498 879  Orange 6,648 7,043  Orange 666 852  Tamworth 8,320 8,007  Tamworth 469 1,193  Wagga Wagga 10,202 9,864  Wagga Wagga 1,421 1,847 

24 Most locations were attracting a higher share from metro areas

Greater Sydney Greater Brisbane Greater Melbourne 2011 2016 2011 2016 2011 2016 Evocities 20.9% 22.1% 3.8% 4.1% 3.6% 4.5% Albury 9.3% 11.4% 2.0% 3.0% 10.8% 11.9% Armidale 15.7% 14.8% 5.2% 6.1% 2.0% 3.1% Bathurst 35.4% 36.9% 1.6% 2.0% 0.9% 1.0% Dubbo 20.0% 24.0% 3.3% 2.8% 1.4% 2.5% Orange 26.3% 28.0% 2.8% 2.3% 1.3% 1.9% Tamworth 17.8% 18.4% 5.4% 5.3% 1.2% 1.8% Wagga Wagga 15.5% 15.8% 4.4% 5.2% 4.2% 5.0%

25 Still sponge cities but almost a quarter of in- Armidale Tamworth migration drawn from

Dubbo In-migration to Greater Sydney Orange Evocities Bathurst 2011-2016 Large numbers SYDNEY 0 to 200 came from outer 200 to 400 LGAs such as Wagga Wagga 400 to 600 Central Coast, 600 to 800 Albury Blacktown and More than 800 Penrith.

26 Who Median age Post School Qualification Bachelor Degree or Higher moved in? 30 59% 24% New resident between New resident between New resident between 2006 and 2011 28 2006 and 2011 52% 2006 and 2011 20% Overall resident base 2016 37 Overall resident base 2016 53% Overall resident base 2016 18%

Generally, they were LF Participation Rate Unemployment Rate more educated, slightly older, more 69% 9% likely to be New resident between New resident between 2006 and 2011 68% 2006 and 2011 8% Managers or Overall resident base 2016 64% Overall resident base 2016 6% Professionals and higher income Manager or Professional Income >$1,500/week earners Metro market 36% 15% movers influenced New resident between New resident between 2006 and 2011 34% 2006 and 2011 11% this change Overall resident base 2016 32% Overall resident base 2016 14% 27 Where new migrants located Orange 2016 0 to 50 50 to 100 2006-2011 2011-2016 100 to 200 200 to 400 Level of domestic in-migration 6,648 7,043 More than 400 Level of international in- 666 852 migration Median age of new residents 30 31 (domestic) Share of new residents from 26.3% 28.0% Greater Sydney Cabonne, Dubbo, Cabonne, Largest source LGAs Blayney, Blayney, Dubbo, Bathurst, Parkes Bathurst, Parkes Blacktown, Central Coast, Central Coast, Blacktown, Inner Largest source LGAs - metro Penrith, West, Blue Brisbane, Blue Mountains, Mountains Penrith Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2016

28 Economy built on professionals

29 Economy built on professionals

30 Strong pipeline of construction

Non-Registered Building Approvals 2011-2016

400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 $'000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Orange Bathurst

31 In Summary

Australia has seen unprecedented population growth unseen in half a century, driven by international migration NSW grew below the national average for most of the last decade, but has experienced recent growth, most going into Greater Sydney. Despite this substantial growth, regional areas have only experienced a minor increase in migration from Sydney. Most of this in the big coastal cities. Access to Sydney still a big driver. People increasingly desire connection to international and domestic gateways, and want to be able to easily have metro experiences

32 In Summary

Jobs still key in inland cities. In-migration correlates with unemployment rates and rents, but not necessarily mortgages. Public sector employment and investment is often significantly aligned with development in many Evocities, including State Government Offices, Hospitals, Tertiary Education facilities, Correctional facilities and military bases. Pipeline of investment important for confidence and migration attraction In-migration from Sydney into inland cities is important for their economies as generally they are more educated, slightly older, more likely to be Managers/Professionals and earn higher income.

33 To change the current trends, requires considerable intervention

20 year Economic Vision for Regional NSW +805,000 people in regional NSW (not Wollongong or Newcastle) = 1.3% p.a. Last ten years 0.8%p.a. +260,000 jobs??? 32% new job to new resident ratio? Currently 42% in regional NSW (with Wollongong and Newcastle)

Is this a viable vision?

34