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1 TRANSITION DECADE Page 1 of 6 Page 1 of 6 FUTURE MELBOURNE COMMITTEE REPORT Agenda Item 7.1 6 April 2010 TRANSITION DECADE Portfolio Eco-City Division City Planning and Infrastructure Presenter Krista Milne, Manager Sustainability Purpose 1. To provide advice on whether the City of Melbourne meets the criteria to sign up to the Transition Decade campaign goals (as per Council resolution at Council meeting on 23 February 2010). Recommendation from management 2. That the Future Melbourne Committee note: 2.1. the City of Melbourne broadly meets the criteria to sign up to the Transition Decade’s campaign goal; and 2.2. the Transition Decade’s targets and approach are more radical than the City of Melbourne’s targets and approach, and would not be achievable without significant change to international policy. Background 3. At the 23 February 2010 Council meeting, Council resolved: 3.1. That Council request management advice be provided at the next possible Future Melbourne Committee on whether the City of Melbourne meets the criteria to sign up to the Transition Decade campaign goals. 4. The Transition Decade was launched at the Melbourne Town Hall on 14 February 2010. It has been created by the Victorian sustainability movement and is a non-partisan shared campaign which is coordinated by an alliance of groups, including Friends of the Earth Australia, Beyond Zero Emissions, the Climate Emergency Network, and the Sustainable Living Foundation. 5. The Transition Decade aspires to mobilise whole communities through a communication and partnership strategy for individuals, community organisations, business and government in geographic localities. The campaign aims to link local, regional, national and international programs, campaigns and resources to help inform and activate citizens across Australia. 1 Page 2 of 6 Key issues 6. The Transition Decade Campaign articulates five goals which campaign supporters are asked to agree. These are: 6.1. hold a vision for a sustainable world; 6.2. recognise the climate emergency situation; 6.3. want to help restore safe climate conditions; 6.4. grasp the scale of the social and structural transition; and 6.5. want to complete the structural change in the next ten years. 7. The City of Melbourne has several policies which are relevant to these. These are addressed below with respect to each of the campaign goals. Hold a vision for a sustainable world 8. The sustainable world goal recognises the dependence of healthy ecosystems on a stable climate and calls for the need to “restore a safe climate future”. 9. The City of Melbourne’s Future Melbourne Community Plan, Council Plan and Zero Net Emissions by 2020 are consistent with the vision to create a sustainable community which lives within its means and available resources. This includes addressing the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Recognise the climate emergency situation 10. The Transition Decade Campaign considers that the factors contributing to climate change are quickly approaching a critical point where there is a need for emergency action to address the causes of climate change. 11. There is growing concern among some sectors of the scientific community that levels of carbon in the atmosphere, which is attributed to anthropogenic climate change, are at critical levels and that growth in carbon emissions need to be arrested and reversed within three to five years. Others have also expressed the view that current levels of carbon in the atmosphere – 386 parts per million (ppm) are beyond the levels required to prevent climate change. Many of these scientists maintain that concentrations of carbon must be reduced to below 350ppm. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has identified 450ppm as a safe upper limit, however there is some consensus that IPCC reports, due to their long timeframes, tend to lag behind the latest scientific data. 12. Zero Net Emissions by 2020 identifies strategies to reduce the municipality’s emissions to zero by 2020. These strategies rely on the reduction of emissions by 2.8 Mega Ton and the abatement of the remained 5.2 Mega Ton through offsets. 13. Achieving emissions reductions through offsetting may not be consistent with the objectives of the campaign as such measures would not be sufficient to reduce emissions below the targets identified (350ppm) unless this was in the form of sequestration. Sequestration methods are not currently capable of removing carbon from the atmosphere on a scale that would be required in order to reduce atmospheric carbon to a level below 350ppm. Want to help restore safe climate conditions 14. The campaign calls for the Earth’s atmospheric temperatures to be reduced on current levels by 0.3°C to 0.8°C. It identifies that in order to do this, concentrations of carbon in the atmosphere would need to be reduced to between 280ppm and 320ppm. Atmospheric carbon levels are currently at around 386ppm. 2 Page 3 of 6 15. A reduction of carbon in the atmosphere to between 280ppm – 320ppm represents a significant shift away from the current direction of climate policy internationally. Current efforts are to seek agreements which would stabilise carbon levels in the atmosphere at 450ppm. This is aimed at containing atmospheric warming to below 2°C which has been identified by the IPCC as the point at which the Earth’s ‘feedback cycles’ (such as release of methane from the frozen tundra) would render climate change uncontrollable and irreversible (sometimes also referred to as ‘run away climate change or catastrophic climate change). It is recognised that in order to achieve this target, growth in carbon emissions would need to be arrested within the next three to five years and subsequently reversed. 16. Some scientific reports published since the latest published IPCC report have identified the need to reduce carbon concentrations in the atmosphere to below 350ppm in order to prevent a 2°C warming scenario. 17. Zero Net Emissions by 2020 recognises that some degree of climate change is inevitable. Council has adopted a Climate Change Adaptation Strategy which aims to prepare the municipality for the expected effects of climate change. Zero Net Emissions by 2020 does not identify a desirable concentration at which atmospheric carbon should be stabilised. Grasp the scale of the social and structural transition 18. The Transition Decade does not clearly articulate the scale at which the social and structural transition must occur in order to achieve a safe climate. The campaign does however identify that strategies include: 18.1 reducing greenhouse gas emissions to zero net below the level of natural sequestration of greenhouse gas; 18.2 drawing down excess atmospheric carbon dioxide from atmosphere and store safely; and 18.3 if warranted, directly reducing the Earth’s temperature, until the first two strategies have restored a safe climate (geo-engineering). 19. The transition goal of reducing emissions in the atmosphere to zero net is consistent with Council’s Zero Net Emissions strategy; however, the strategy relies on offsetting, which can only be achieved through a national approach (ie the proposed Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme or a carbon tax). 20. Council does not have specific policies in relation to the draw down of atmospheric carbon and safe storage (sequestration), or in relation to geo-engineering as a means of reducing the Earth’s atmospheric temperature. The latter in particular remains highly contentious and controversial with some scientists claiming that geo-engineering as the only viable method of protecting the Earth’s climate, while others warn that further human intervention in the form of geo-engineering could have unexpected consequences. Want to complete the structural change in the next 10 years 21. The Transition Decade campaign broadly identifies the goal of achieving a large scale transition to a low emissions society within 10 years. The City of Melbourne’s policies are broadly consistent with this goal and identify that this will not be achieved through the actions of the City of Melbourne alone and that these will be reliant on additional measures by other levels of government. 3 Page 4 of 6 Conclusion 22. Existing Council policies are broadly consistent with the Transition Decade campaign goals however a decision to support the Transition Decade Campaign would represent a shift/realignment of some Council policy, particularly in terms of the scale and pace of change required in the community to mitigate for climate change impacts. Subsequent City of Melbourne decisions would be considered in this context and consideration would need to be given to how such a decision may impact on the City of Melbourne’s work plans and its ability to affect change in the community. Relation to Council policy 23. The Transition Decade goals are broadly consistent with Council’s policies on greenhouse gas emissions reduction (Zero Net Emissions by 2020) however they would likely require a greater commitment from Council to reduce emissions through avoidance and abatement rather than relying on offsets. Council’s policies in part recognise the need for social and economic transition on a grand scale. However they may not go far enough if the transition is to be complete in the next 10 years. Greater action may be required on the part of Council, the community and other levels of government. 24. Council does not have positions in relation to the draw down and storage (sequestration) of carbon or in relation to geo-engineering as a means of controlling the Earth’s Climate. Finance 25. There are no immediate financial impacts resulting from this report. There may be some financial and resource implications should Council resolve to support the Transition Decade campaign and align its strategic policies accordingly. These implications have not yet been quantified. Conflict of interest 26. No member of Council staff, or other person engaged under a contract, involved in advising on or preparing this report has declared a direct or indirect interest in relation to the matter of the report.
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