Specia l Edition of Th e Atla ntic Tim es for the 5th MSC Cor e Grou p M eeting

November 2013 Berlin, Germany

In this issue

European disunity 3 NSA Merkel affair pages 4-7 When it comes to foreign and defense policy, the EU seems to have trouble living up to the second part of its name. Charles Kupchan and François Heisbourg argue Cyber security pages 21-28 that failure to agree a Common Security and Defense Policy will rob Europe of its geopolitical relevance.

Modern conflict 10 State-of-the art weaponry makes all-out confrontation between major powers unlikely – the danger of utter catastrophe is too great. Lawrence Freedman on the Call of duty future of warfare. Germany must “Europeanize” its activities False promise 11 Emerging powers are focusing on build- in foreign and security policy ing alternative institutional frameworks no longer based on western rules. But By Wolfgang Ischinger regional organizations also threaten effec- tive forms of global governance, warns Eberhard Sandschneider.

Present danger 13 Although weakened by the decimation of its leadership, Al-Qaeda has established new bridgeheads in Muslim countries destabilized by popular rebellions. Exploit- ing the discontents of the Arab Rebellions is now the group’s most important project, explains Yassin Musharbash.

Still potent 14 Rising powers are boosting defense spend- ing as European and US military budgets face cuts. But Western forces remain pow- erful with much combat experience, argues Alexander Nicoll.

Ancient regime 16 The Syrian conflict is increasingly becom- ing a sectarian and ethnic war and a proxy theater for international rivalries. Michael Lüders argues that a solution will require pragmatism – and quite possibly the par- ticipation of Bashar al-Assad.

New hope 17 A 15-minute phone call between Barack Obama and Hassan Rouhani ends more than three decades of diplomatic stale- mate. Matthias Nass on the first tender shoots of détente between the United ortunately, the worries that decrease; by 2050, Europe will make are even more true today than in the have a window of over three years States and Iran. some of our neighbors had up no more than about 7 percent of past: “There are only two types of before their next elections. The cur- some 20 years ago, namely the world’s population. states in Europe: small states, and rent Polish government, for instance, Pacific hegemon 18 that Germany may have to In the future, the US will devote small states that have not yet realized would offer strong partnership in beF feared again, have not come true. more attention and resources to that they are small.” identifying the path to a stronger EU China continues to expand its military and And yet, as Timothy Garton Ash said eastern Asia and be less involved Second, we Germans must not be and to a political union. has been gaining territory through a series at the Munich Security Conference in with Europe and its neighboring afraid to take on joint leadership of “soft” confrontations. Isabel Hilton 2012, we have “a European Germany countries. This does not mean that responsibility. This does not mean analyzes China’s tactics of carefully stay- in a German Europe.” the US will “abandon” Europe. that we should act as Europe’s hege- Wolfgang Ischinger, ing below military thresholds. This European Germany is today, Germany’s former However, Europe will need to mon, or even indulge in arrogant ambassador to the without a doubt, the central eco- become more independent in terms flights of fancy. It means, however, US and the UK, is Shale revolution 19 nomic power in Europe. However, of security policy. We do not yet that we should learn and practice the Chairman of the Munich Security Fracking could make the US the world’s in terms of security policy, Germany seem to have understood what this “generous leadership” – because this Conference since largest producer of gas and oil. Kirsten does not play an active and formative means for us. is in our fundamental best interest. 2008. role commensurate to our size and And whether we like it or not, However, leadership – broad-minded Westphal explains why it’s all about the msc energy economy. potential. Our partners’ expectations Germany has become the key country leadership – is never entirely free of of us are not exaggerated – and criti- of the EU. For the foreseeable future, charge. Europe cism that Germany sometimes gladly Germany will remain Europe’s In the coming months we will have shies away from the action, particu- “indispensable nation,” as Polish for- to put our cards on the table about A key area in which significant The Security larly when things get difficult, does eign minister Radek Sikorski put it in the type of Europe we want. Up to progress in integration is necessary Times is also not always seem entirely unfounded. his historic speech in the fall of 2011 now, for tactical reasons, mainly spe- and possible in Europe is security available online. We Germans have lived quite com- in Berlin. The creative drive coming cific issues such as bailout packages and defense policy. In December, the fortably with the status quo. We do from Berlin, or the lack thereof, will and banking unions have been on the European Council will, for the first www.atlantic-times.com not want change. We would prefer be a decisive factor for whether and agenda. However, the big questions time in years, deal primarily with to be left alone to enjoy our growing questions of security and defense. prosperity. It was not always like The necessity of finally bringing that. Before reunification – as was set Does anyone seriously the concept of integration to bear out in the German Basic Law – the on security and defense policy is old Federal Republic of Germany want to claim, in the face clear: It is scandalous how little was an “anti-status quo” power: we bang for the buck we get in Europe. had the objective of overcoming the of the monumental The defense expenditure of all the division of Germany and Europe. European countries together totals Since reunification, attitudes have global changes, just under 40 percent of US defense changed. We would have liked to expenditure – and actual military freeze the course of history. But the that we Germans can achieve power is only a small fraction of belief that we could isolate ourselves that of the US. At the same time, the from the world’s problems, rather anything on our own? EU countries have six times as many like a Switzerland writ large, is a different weapons systems as the fatal misconception. The wheels of how Europe is made viable for the can no longer be avoided if we want US. In view of the high fixed costs change are turning around us in a future. to develop the EU further and keep of armaments, this fragmentation is spectacular way, and we are called Fundamentally, this means two the euro afloat. A stronger Europe is irresponsible. upon not only to face this challenge, things. First, we must “European- only possible with a strengthening A study conducted by McKinsey but also to actively embrace it. ize” our activities in foreign and of the European institutions, in par- in conjunction with the Munich The “rise of the rest,” – of coun- security policy much more. There is ticular the European Parliament and Security Conference calculated that

335 uite tries like China, Brazil, and India ­– no longer any workable alternative the Commission. The basic principle European countries could save up to S means that the world order is becom- to further integration and more joint should be: find intergovernmental 30 percent per year – that is 13 bil-

, 20036 , € C ing less clear-cut and international action. Does anyone seriously want solutions only as often as required; lion annually – if they worked more

treet NW, NW, treet actions and decisions are becoming to claim, in the face of the monumen- strengthen European institutions as closely together in their weapons S

udia perez leal/TM more complex and complicated. The tal global changes, that we Germans significantly as possible. procurement. M relative influence of Germany and can achieve anything on our own? The new German government

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t Washington, D Washington, Times Atlantic The 2000 fo Europe (and the West as a whole) will Paul-Henri Spaak’s famous words and the French government now Continued on page 8 2 November 2013 November 2013 3

persona has remained a Europe otherwise left to its own devices. style, banking union (not the supervisory embryonic. Europe’s security environment is dete- mechanism currently being considered), a Then, in 2005, came the riorating precisely at the moment when large federal budget, substantial portabil- double shock of the rejection of its collective will and capabilities are ity of social security regimes: in effect, François Heisbourg, is a special adviser ith the EU still struggling the constitutional treaty by France diminishing, with a more reticent US and the sorts of things which allow Brazil, at the Foundation for to reclaim lasting financial and the Netherlands, two of the six a more instrumental NATO. The Arab India, the US or Switzerland to each sus- Strategic Research stability and restore eco- founding members of the Union. revolutions are not only turning ugly tain a common currency. Given the state in Paris. nomic growth, European Is Europe losing Within three years, the Europeans in most instances – Syria, Libya, Egypt of public opinion in most EU/Eurozone elitesW and publics alike remain preoc- angrily pull away private were sucked into the vortex of the – and new ones may well countries, the chances of this happening cupied with issues of debt, bailouts, and from Brussels and global financial crisis, which left break out in areas either in a politically transparent way are low. jobs. This focus on economic issues is as from each other. Accord- policymakers with little time or close to Europe (notably Last but not least, that Britain does not Europe it should be; the Eurozone crisis, which is ing to a recent Pew poll, “pos- energy for moving forward on post-Bouteflika Algeria, leave the EU under such circumstances. not yet definitively over, has the potential itive views of the European Union its geopolitical other issues. The ratification of possibly Morocco) or A variation of the above is much more transformed into a Continental System, to bring down the European Union. are at or near their low point in most the Lisbon treaty in late 2009 critical to its inter- likely. A limited degree of federalization to use Napoléon’s words, divided by the Nonetheless, this focus on the economy EU nations, even among the young, the was one last heave before ests, such as in Saudi is put in place with an element of stealth, divergent strategic cultures of Germany is distracting attention from another hope for the EU’s future.” putting on hold any initia- Arabia, with no clear much as has happened for the creation of and France, the EU would find it even issue in need of urgent attention: the The renationalization of European poli- relevance? tives not related to the man- line of succession new institutions and practices related to more difficult than today to emerge as a worsening condition of European defense tics has the potential to snuff out the EU’s uring the fifteen years that agement of the economic, and a frustrated, the Euro’s rescue, enough to save the Euro coherent strategic actor. capabilities. geopolitical ambitions. Even if they were followed the fall of the Berlin financial and monetary situation. bored and largely (at least until a major new shock over- Yet another possibility is one in which The Eurozone crisis is taking a serious to increase their defense expenditures, Aggregating foreign and defense policy, Wall, Europe as a whole To make matters worse, not only is the u n e m p l o y e d whelms it in a decade or two). But given the Euro explodes catastrophically. toll on the EU’s aspirations to become individual European countries are not not renationalization is the way forward began to emerge as a strate- EU stuck in mid-stream, but the waters youth popula- the state of British public opinion, such Although thanks to Mario Draghi, the a more capable actor on security issues. large enough to play on the global stage. gicD actor in its own right. The European measures could be President of the European Central Bank, Austerity has contributed to steady Europe can be an effective security actor By Charles A. Kupchan Community, which became the European enough to prompt this no longer appears to be a scenario of declines in defense spending. Since 2008, only if EU member states aggregate their Union in 1993, greatly extended its sphere the UK’s exit. immediate concern, it cannot be excluded. defense expenditure among EU members will and capability. More defense of competence. Beyond the completion In economic terms, Under such cataclysmic conditions, the has declined by some 10 percent. Most spending would help, but pooling of the single market, the EU embarked this may be dealt with, but EU may well disappear as well, given the EU members fail to meet the NATO and specialization are essential to on the creation of a single currency, are becoming from a strategic standpoint the immense store of bad will which would benchmark of spending at least 2 per- establishing a credible European put in place the Schengen border agree- more turbulent. consequences could be quite unfor- result from a disorderly breakup of the cent of GDP on defense. defense capability. ments along with growing convergence First, the member tunate. With Britain drifting towards the euro. The strategic consequences could Of even greater negative impact on EU members have long been in judicial and home affairs and began to states have less money Atlantic, the ‘rump EU’ would be centered be quite lurid, although it is unlikely that the prospects for European progress reluctant to deepen collective anti-EU sentiment likely to invest in embark on a common foreign and security available for defense and on Germany in political and world war could be a consequence in the on defense has been the politi- governance on foreign and among Conservatives NATO if Europe grows policy, which from 1999 onwards also foreign affairs, with defense strategic terms, much as the absence of a credible candidate for Napo- cal renationalization spawned by defense policy; national and the growing politi- incapable of being a credible included a military dimension. spending dropping by some Eurozone already is from leonic, Wilhelminian or Hitlerite hege- the financial crisis. The fabric of security has always cal strength of the UK Inde- partner. The United States has long A convention, so named after the body 15 percent on average since an economic and financial mony in a declining and aging Europe. European solidarity has badly been the last redoubt pendence Party, which calls for complained about transatlantic bur- that framed the constitution of the newly the crisis began. Although standpoint. Finally, there is the theoretical scenario frayed as national publics of sovereignty. Britain to quit the EU, Prime Minister den-sharing. But the US pivot to Asia, the independent United States of America, common sense as well as In today’s Eurozone, of an orderly unraveling of the Euro, David Cameron is seeking budget sequester, and the turning inward was busy drafting a constitutional treaty plentiful and well-mean- Germany’s prudence, which would restore the EU to its situ- to loosen London’s ties to among both Democrats and Republicans economic union – one capable of giving for the European Union. At the same ing political statements along with the fairly ation of the mid-1990s: in effect return- Brussels. As a consequence endows the issue with unprecedented Europe the banking and financial over- time, the EU was developing as a ‘nor- suggest that as a con- narrowly defined ing us to the river bank from which we either of London’s continu- salience. As the former US Secretary of sight it needs to function effectively as a mative empire’ across a broad spectrum sequence the Europe- spectrum of issues came. Although I have argued that such ing drift from the continent or Defense Robert Gates stated in 2011, currency union. Admittedly, the process of international endeavors, from trade ans should pool and covered, the hege- an achievement is economically doable of a referendum on EU membership NATO’s future will be “dim, if not of deepening is occurring slowly, with regulation or technological innovation share defense assets, tion. Nor is the situation in the mony question and strategically desirable, the politi- that potentially looms on the horizon, dismal,” should Europeans continue to Germany reluctant to move toward a to the Kyoto protocol on climate change, the reality looks Sahel any more encouraging. The has proven to cal investment made by our countries Britain could well leave the EU within a underfund defense. “Future US political banking union and the collectivization while playing a lead role in the framing of slightly different. human tragedies of Lampedusa, Ceuta be manage- and their leaders in the Euro is such few years. Even if it stays put, London leaders,” Gates warned, “may not con- of debt until member states have carried major initiatives such as the International When deep disagreements occur, such and Melilla show what may be in store able, with Ger- that probably none will summon the will certainly not be leading the charge sider the return on America’s investment out further reforms. Criminal Court or the Responsibility-to- as over the war in Libya, can all partners for a Europe unable to think and act manophobia will to suggest collectively ending to pool sovereignty on matters of foreign in NATO worth the cost.” Protect. rely on the immediate availability of collectively in the face of challenges that remaining a an experiment which has failed in and security policy. A weak and introverted Europe also In directly strategic terms, the EU’s pooled and shared assets? And has anyone are its own, not those of the US or Asia. limited prob- its intent to generate growth and The French are the last men standing. spells trouble for the broader task of Charles A. Kupchan is a enlargement from a grouping of nine yet met a national politician who is ready Finally, we will have to contend with a lem. Once foster greater political union. n Paris has the will and capability to be a managing a global landscape in the midst professor of international members at the end of the Cold War to to say: ‘Yes of course, I will agree to affairs at Georgetown European leader on defense. It pushed for of profound change. For the first time University and a senior a continent-wide club of 28 states was close the tank/plan factory or naval and was a major contributor to NATO’s since World War II, the output of the fellow at the Council on a remarkable and historically unprec- shipyard in my constituency, since the military operation in Libya, intervened advanced industrialized democracies Foreign Relations and the edented case of entirely voluntary and neighboring country produces cheaper unilaterally in Mali, and was prepared represents less than 50 percent of global Transatlantic Academy. peaceful empire-building on an epic scale. and better tanks/planes/ships than we do’? The cur- to join the United States in a military GDP. The aggregate GDP of China is While the US – through NATO – pro- There is a fair amount of low-hanging R u s s i a private Increasing risk of rent renation- response to the Syrian regime’s use of expected to surpass that of the United vided the security umbrella, the EU with fruit available in terms of pooling and which is alization of Euro- chemical weapons. The French, however, States within roughly 15 years. Asia Europe its acquis communautaire was the prime sharing in training, maintenance, test- both able to act pean politics is only have jealously guarded their national already outspends Europe on defense. mover in transforming the societies of the ing, logistics, and certification activities assertively and unable making matters worse. It prerogatives on defense, and prefer an A major change in the global pecking However, if and when that tighter erstwhile Soviet Empire into fully fledged and the like. But it will not make up for to modernize its quasi- is indeed a cruel irony that t h e European Union of strong states, not order is afoot. economic union takes shape, it is pos- members of the democratic family of the continuing reduction in our overall Arabian petro-economy and floundering Lisbon Treaty created the foreign policy one of strong supranational governance. Not only is the West’s material primacy sible that the push for deeper integration European and Atlantic nations. defense efforts. its Algerian-style power vertical. institutions needed to give the EU more At least for now, the push to collectivize waning, but its norms and values are will spill over into the security realm. If Overall, this was an impressive set of In the meantime, the United States is Precisely because the EU exercises international heft just as the political European defense will not be coming also under threat. The Arab Awakening national publics and governments come achievements. But it was also an incom- facing China’s rise and the reduction of immense attraction to the countries on Does Europe have a solidarity needed to backstop those insti- from Paris. has done more to fuel political Islam to see the value of collective governance plete process, putting the Europeans right its own defense spending. Its energy revo- Russia’s periphery, notably Ukraine, we future as a strategic actor ? tutions began to fray. The timing of Europe’s backsliding on than liberal democracy. State capitalism on economic issues, they may then be in the middle of the stream, to borrow a lution is reducing its dependence on the must also expect more energetic pushing Political developments among the EU’s defense is not good. The EU’s efforts to is alive and well in Russia and China. more ready to accept a deeper union on metaphor from former German Foreign Middle East. This is also a country that back by Russia. By François Heisbourg larger members are particularly trou- raise its geopolitical profile are running Even emerging democracies like India matters of foreign and security policy. Put Minister Joschka Fischer. That is not has witnessed two consecutive strategic So what are the possible scenarios for bling. Germany, perhaps out of steam just as its American part- and Brazil question key Western prefer- differently, if European unity is able to a place where one can stay: you either failures in Iraq and Afghanistan: the US an EU stuck in the middle of the roil- as a reaction against the ner is also turning inward. War weari- ences, such as the penchant for promot- deliver the goods on the economic front, swim forward (to an ever more federal population is not looking for new mon- ing waters of international life, not involvement of its troops in ness, budget constraints, and domestic ing democracy and the enforcement of then publics are more likely to place con- outcome) or backward (and recover to sters to slay. to mention domestic turbulences as Afghanistan, is turning inward. polarization are taking a heavy toll on the Responsibility to Protect. fidence in the union’s ability to deliver on eventually begin anew: but this the Union Within NATO, the US will act as a more the temptation of populism rises? Berlin’s decision to abstain on the America’s readiness to be the global Under these circumstances, the United the security front as well. has never done) – or you sink. reluctant partner, as we saw in NATO’s The most optimistic and rather UN vote authorizing military action in guardian of last resort. As US President States and Europe need to show renewed For now, regrettably, the most likely Unfortunately, Europe got caught mid- Libya campaign, and again in NATO’s unlikely scenario involves the Libya was a clear indicator. So was a Barack Obama repeatedly proclaimed solidarity in defense of a liberal inter- outcome is a Europe that gradually loses stream nearly ten years ago and is at recent “Steadfast Jazz” exercise in Poland combination of a return to sub- recent federal election campaign in which during his bid for reelection, “It is time national order. That task is likely to go its geopolitical relevance. That outcome increasing risk of floundering. First, with and the Baltics (in which the Americans, stantial growth in most of the the candidates behaved as if all issues for nation-building here at home.” With unfulfilled if both the United States and would be a severe setback not only the deep divisions caused by the US- like the Germans, were mostly absent). At Eurozone countries, defus- beyond German borders were irrelevant. the US in retrenchment mode, there is a the EU are preoccupied by internal chal- for Europe, but also for a world much British invasion of Iraq in 2003, came the the same time, the US military-industrial ing the rise of extremism, On matters of geopolitics, Germany is pressing need for the EU to help fill the lenges and allow their security partner- in need of European engagement and limitation of the ambitions of Europe’s complex, heavily challenged by domestic while a set of robust federal increasingly missing in action. resulting gap. At least for now, that will ship to atrophy. values. Perhaps that prospect alone will Security and Defense Policy (ESDP). With budget cuts, will expect the NATO Euro- measures make the Euro Meanwhile, Britain has been busily not happen. There is one ray of light on the horizon. reawaken Europeans and encourage them UK forces and British political will largely peans to buy American in the name of sustainable in the long slashing its defense spending and dis- Transatlantic ties are poised to suffer In their struggle to end the Eurozone to band together in the service of global unavailable for ESDP’s operations and Smart Defense. Tough (or tougher) love run. These involve the tancing itself from the EU. Faced with accordingly. Washington will be less crisis, member states envisage a deeper responsibility. n further development, the Union’s military will be America’s overall attitude towards creation of a true, US-

Sharing is caring ‘Our country is not an island’ EU leaders to resume talks on Common Security and Defense Policy Federal President Joachim Gauck on Germany’s duty in Europe and the world

n March 2011, French and British forces Late last year EU Council President Herman van At the meeting of EU Foreign and Defense Min- when it comes to accepting risk and costs, can hat is Germany’s duty in Europe problems and conflicts? Are we European foreign and security policy. is Germany doing to help aspiring emerging coun- intervened in Libya’s civil war, implementing Rompuy announced his intention to “devote the isters in Vilnius in September, EU Foreign Policy be challenging, resulting in force generation dif- and in the world? Some neighboring letting others foot the bill for our He sees Germany as a role model. tries to become partners on the international stage? a no-flyzone and enforcing an arms embargo December 2013 European Council to these ques- Chief Catherine Ashton circulated an 18-page ficulties.” countries fear Germany taking on a insurance policies? This begs the question – is our And if we seek a permanent seat on the United to protect civilians. The US backed the opera- tions.” The EU heads of state and government will report that said the security of Europe has been To be sure, the EU has gained plaudits with strong role, others desire it. Even we Of course we have grounds to con- engagement on a par with the weight Nations Security Council – what role are we pre- Ition, which was actively supported by a number again debate the CSDP and Europe’s contribution a historical prerequisite for its economic welfare. ourselvesW waver – assuming less responsibility is no tradict this view. The Bundeswehr is that our country carries? Germany operations such as that off the Horn of Africa pared to play in crises in far flung regions of the of European states. But others, including Germany to global security structures. “We now need to avoid that Europe’s economic against piracy. Yet it is still not a reliable “security longer an option and we must now adjust to taking helping to keep the peace in Afghani- is populous, lies at the heart of the world? and Poland, rejected military action. The NATO- Whether the leaders of the EU member states, now difficulties will affect its capacity to maintain its provider” and building block of global security on more responsibility. stan and Kosovo. Germany is sup- continent and is the world’s fourth Our country is not an island. We should not cher- led operation was called “Unified Protector” – but 28 in all, each of whom has their own ideas about own security,” the report said. architecture. In Mali, as in Libya, it was again Five years after the end of World War II, the porting the International Criminal largest economy. The strength of our ish the illusion that we will be spared from political it revealed a lack of unity. It revealed that Europe security policy and state sovereignty, will speak Yet the austerity imperative could also enhance one European state that intervened militarily while political philosopher Hannah Arendt wrote: “It Court, is promoting a global climate country lies in the fact that we have and economic, environmental and military conflicts has no common security and defense policy (CSDP) with one voice on questions of defense, foreign, and willingness to divide up the tasks and readiness to others advocated diplomacy – and not only because looks as if, having been denied world domination, agreement and is actively engaged made friends of all of our neighbors if we do not contribute to solving them.

worth the name. security policy, is doubtful to say the least. European have more defense cooperation instead of hold- of the parliamentary prerogative that 18 EU states the Germans have fallen in love with powerless- in development cooperation. Ger- Kumm a /W. and become a reliable partner in I do not like the idea that Germany talks itself up A/ d p The goal of CSDP, with which Europe would leaders tend to favor bilateral agreements – see the ing onto redundant capabilities. Unfortunately, have in deciding whether to commit troops to ness.” many’s contributions and guarantees P international alliances. Integrated to impose its will on others. Yet neither do I like the Joachim Gauck. both guarantee its own security and take on UK-French Lancaster House treaty for defense and the rhetoric of recent years that has invoked the foreign missions. Germany had reduced Europe to ruins and are helping to stabilize the Eurozone. and accepted as such, Germany was idea that Germany talks itself down to eschew risks more global responsibility, was enshrined in the security cooperation. In general, most Europeans do slogan of “pooling and sharing” has not been fol- Obviously, Europe does not speak with one destroyed millions of human lives. What Arendt Nevertheless both in our country and elsewhere able to secure freedom, peace and prosperity. or solidarity. A country that views itself as part of Maastricht Treaties in 1993. The EU has not come not appear to savor military operations, let alone lowed by any significant action. Defense expendi- voice in security and defense questions. Perhaps described as powerlessness had a political dimen- voices calling for more German engagement in inter- Maintaining this political and military stability in a whole in this way should encounter neither rejec- far since. In July 2013, the European Commis- interventions in faraway conflicts, preferring to leave tures within the EU remain very uneven and there the summit in December will dare to take the first sion. A defeated Germany had to earn new trust national politics are growing louder. The calls come uncertain times and ensuring its future viability is tion amongst us Germans, nor mistrust among our sion concluded: “The successive waves of cuts in such matters to the US. Yet Washington is pivoting is still no agreed long-term vision for CSDP. And, steps to change that. But in what direction? And and regain its sovereignty. from a Polish foreign minister as well as professors our most important concern. neighbors. n defense budgets and the persisting fragmentation toward the Asia-Pacific region and would prefer to as Ashton pointed out, “decision-making on new with what objectives? Catherine Ashton put it this On a visit to France a few weeks ago, I was from Oxford and Princeton. They view Germany as Therefore it is right if, along with others, we ask of defense markets threaten Europe’s capacity to see Europe solve its own regional problems. Finan- operations or missions is often cumbersome and way: “European citizens and the international com- confronted with the question: do we Germans a sleepwalking giant or a spectator of global affairs. ourselves: Is Germany fully living up to its respon- This is an extract from President Joachim Gauck’s sustain effective defense capabilities and a com- cial strictures are forcing governments practically long. And securing Member States’ commitment munity need to be able to rely on the EU to deliver remember our past so actively because we seek an One of my predecessors, Richard von Weizsäcker, sibility with regard to our neighbors in the East, the speech on Oct. 3 at the official ceremony in Stuttgart petitive defense industry.” across the board to cut defense budgets. to support missions and operations, especially when the situation demands.“ PHK excuse not to deal with the world’s contemporary encourages Germany to more strongly advocate a Middle East and the southern Mediterranean? What marking the 23rd Day of German Unity. 4 November 2013 November 2013 5

Summer of Snowden Yes, we can – but should we? Unfriendly fire in cyberspace The NSA leaks made headlines The blowback from NSA spying on foreign leaders could damage American security | By Michael Hayden The effrontery of NSA surveillance of US allies is as staggering as its scale | By Theo Sommer in Germany long before uring the 2008 US list was confined to a small group vulnerable to intercept by foreign contain information that would require “victims” to be publicly or more than sixty “Spying on friends, that won’t A plausible denial? Even before Ensuring transparency is the Merkel spying presidential race, the of family and friends, and the intelligence services in his own help keep America safe, informa- outraged. years, mutual trust was do at all,” she declared and “this then, many European observers now the order of the day. One allegation Obama campaign was device itself received some secu- national capital. tion not otherwise available to But the ultimate cost could be the cement that held is not merely about me but about had reached the conclusion that immediate objective is a near legendary for its rity enhancements. No attempt was made to por- the US government, the default far more than cosmetic. Intelli- the Western alliance each and every citizen. It’s about Obama was either a liar and a no-spy agreement with June 6: Glenn Greenwald, masteryD of the digital world and The episode is instructive as we tray this as anything other than together.F The revelations by option would be to target your gence cooperation with the United trust and confidence amongst hypocrite or that he had lost Washington, which writing in The Guardian, the candidate himself was a near now read a daily dose of allega- the way things are. No moral communications. States, clearly in the interest of Edward Snowden of America’s allies and partners, which must control of his bloated intelligence the French and exposes the NSA surveillance obsessive user of his Blackberry. tions that the National Security offense, no political pressures, no Now that’s an admittedly hard both the US and its foreign part- maniacal eavesdropping not now be restored again.” Volker apparatus. It’s hard to say which the Germans are program, citing documents pro- After the election, President- Agency is reading the email or public posturing. Implicit was the edged view to inject into the cur- ners, may be curtailed. US busi- only on its potential adversaries Kauder, the majority leader of would be worse. to negotiate on vided by the former intelligence elect Obama expected to be able tapping the cellphones of foreign belief that if our president’s com- rent discourse over alleged Ameri- nesses may unfairly be forced to and rivals but also on its closest her party in the Bundestag, put “In the war against transna- behalf of the contractor Edward Snowden. to continue to use his personal leaders from Mexico to Germany. munications were stolen, shame can spying on foreign leaders. suffer financial loss when compet- friends in Europe have caused it more bluntly: “Obama can’t go tional terrorism, the Obama 28 EU member The report alleges mass NSA device, telling CNBC, “They’re Visualize the backdrop against on us. But that needs to be included, ing for foreign contracts. Overall a dramatic crisis of confidence. on like this.” administration has lost all sense states, hope- surveillance of telephone and going to have to pry it out of my which this little episode played Equally implicit was the belief even as we weigh other important political relationships could suffer Wiretapping Angela Merkel’s Restoring trust and confidence of proportion,” wrote the con- fully finish- Internet data in the US and hands.” out in early 2009. The most pow- that in gathering foreign intel- factors that should also be con- cellphone turned out to be the won’t be easy. Not because servative Frankfurter Allgeme- ing before other nations. All that was much to the alarm erful man in the most powerful ligence, other nations were quite sidered. Factors like good friends General (ret.) last straw. the Germans are overly sensi- ine Zeitung. “It is obviously no Christmas. June 8: US President Barack of those responsible for protecting country on earth was warned active. shouldn't put their partners in Michael Hayden is a An outraged German chancel- tive about their past – the Nazi longer able to distinguish friend But beyond former director of the Obama says the NSA’s surveil- him and his communications (and that his communications were As was the United States. politically impossible situations. CIA and the National lor called the US president to Gestapo and the Communist Stasi from foe.” Writing in the French such an agree- lance programs strike “the right presidential records). Starkly put, absent political guid- Recent reports in the French Security Agency. He is express her displeasure, while her – but because they are worried, as daily Le Monde, French law- ment – which, balance” between security and Eventually a compromise ance to the contrary, if you are paper Le Monde and the German currently a principal at spokesmen complained publicly are more and more Americans, maker and intelligence expert who knows, might the Chertoff Group, where privacy. The programs were was reached. The presi- not protected by the US weekly Der Spiegel may or may his area of focus includes about a “serious breach of trust” about the encroachments of the Jean-Jaques Urvoas complained: be honored more in the subject to close oversight by US dent kept his Black- Constitution and your not be true (Director of National technological intelligence and “totally unacceptable prac- 16 US secret services on the hal- “The US has no allies, only targets breach than in the com- and counterintelligence. courts and Congress, he said. berry, his e-mail communications Intelligence Clapper hammered chertoff group tices.” Between close partners, lowed civil rights anchored in or vassals.” In Britain, Guard- pliance – other ideas are June 17: German Minister of the Le Monde report for its inac- their message ran, surveillance the Fourth Amendment to the US ian columnist Timothy Garton abroad to protect the the Interior Hans-Peter Friedrich curacies). German, French or Merkel-NSA of a government chief’s commu- Constitution. For Germans, the Ash quipped: “The quantity and privacy of European cit- (CSU) says: “Before anyone Mexican leaders may or may nication should be taboo. constitution of America’s Found- intimacy of what the spooks and izens and safeguard the even knows exactly what the not have already suspected such (witness the cancellation of a state Two years ago, when Obama ing Fathers has been an inspira- companies know about you and business interests of European Americans are doing, everyone activities were going on. visit by Brazilian President Rous- conferred the US Medal of Free- tion and a model that they have me outstrip a Stasi general’s wet- companies. is getting worked up and com- Little matter. The issue now is seff). dom on Merkel, he extolled her been emulating since 1945. They test dream...” Measures under discussion plaining about them. I find this that seemingly plausible reports President Obama seemed to be “eloquent voice for human rights are concerned that it is now being The point here is not that include: speeding up the con- combination of anti-American- of American espionage against reflecting these dangers in a press and dignity around the world.” hollowed out by intelligence agen- Obama’s credibility has reached clusion of an EU data protec- ism and naivety really irritating.” senior foreign leaders are in the conference in Sweden in June He praised her commitment to cies running amok. its nadir in Europe. Once idolized tion agreement; “national public domain, and publics – to when he emphasized that “...what freedom, which “must be strug- It is one thing to track the com- in Germany, he is now seen as a routing” so mails can June 17: The Guardian pub- which these democratic leaders I’ve said domestically and what I gled for, and then defended anew, munications of people suspected weak performer. Angela Merkel bypass the US and the UK; lishes information derived from must be responsive – are angry say to international audiences is... every day of our lives.” And he of links to international terror- thinks he is an overrated politi- a separate “Web 3.0” that the Snowden documents claim- and demanding action. just because we can do something praised her especially for having ism – incontestably a cautionary cian, according to Der Spiegel would grant Europeans ing that Britain’s Government For foreign leaders there is doesn't mean we should do it.” refused to spy for East Germany’s necessity; or to spy on adversar- magazine, long on speechifying freedom from unwar- Communications Headquarters necessarily at least a little the- Promising to address these secret police, the Stasi. ies or geopolitical rivals – they yet short on delivery, unreliable ranted US surveillance; (GCHQ) spied on participants ater involved here. Public allega- issues, he added that there were The question now is: Was the all do that, first and foremost and lacking any feeling for his acceleration of the Gali- of the G-20 summit in London tions of specific espionage “questions in terms of whether NSA listening in when she rang China and Russia, and counter- allies’ sensitivities. leo project to gain inde- in 2009. we’re tipping over into being too espionage is not only natural but In the eyes of many Europeans pendence from the Pen- June 19: “This is not eaves- intrusive with respect to the – you permissible. But the NSA’s vac- the gigantic scale of America’s tagon-dominated GPS dropping” – President Obama know, the interactions of other Theo Sommer is uum-cleaner approach is some- clandestine operations system: even closing says during a visit to Berlin governments.” the executive editor thing entirely different. Targeting undermines Amer- down NSA or CIA of The Security Times that the NSA did not listen to That doesn’t necessarily mean and The Atlantic Times friends and allies is disrespectful, ica’s soft installations in con- telephone conversations and dramatic changes in all American and Editor-at-Large indefensible – obnoxious. tinental western US secret services could “not intelligence collection, but that of the German weekly The effrontery of the NSA’s E u r o p e ; browse through regular e-mails “political guidance” factor refer- Die Zeit. electronic spying is as staggering and, last

by German, American or French enced above is likely to get a lot archive as its dimensions: The agency b u t citizens.” Angela Merkel says: more robust and more limiting on bugged the EU embassy in Wash- n o t “If you’re in Germany, you have collection activities. Merkel-NSA ington; it tapped the offices of power. to abide by German law… Just Some of that may be out of the UN Secretary General; from A b u because something is techni- a sense of embarrassment and Berlin after that solemn award its premises in NATO’s nearby G h r a i b , cally possible, doesn’t mean a concern over legacy. But it’s ceremony? Washington’s ambig- headquarters it spied on the EU Guantanamo, you’re allowed to do it.” hard to deny that continued uous assurance when news of the Commission; it collected, stored waterboarding blowback from stories like these scandal broke, that she “is not” and analyzed huge amounts of July 1: German government and extraordinary recent ones could well damage and “will not” be monitored data in France, Spain, Italy and spokesman Steffen Seibert rendition had already cast US security in terms of foreign allows the conclusion that at the elsewhere, 500 million data sets says “Spying among friends is dark clouds over the City on the cooperation politically impos- time she clearly was – apparently in Germany alone. The heads unacceptable. The Cold War is Hill. The two wars in Iraq and sible to deliver. she had been spied on since 2002. of state or government in 35 over.” He is reacting to reports Afghanistan, won militarily but So the President will have to do Merkel’s indignation is all the countries were on its target list, that US intelligence services lost politically, and the interven- some rebalancing, in the interest more understandable given her amongst them Brazil’s President bugged in the European Union’s tion in Libya, where Washington of politics, policy and defense. reaction in June, when Snowden’s Dilma Rouseff and Mexico’s diplomatic mission in Washing- led from behind into foreseeable But he will also need to be leaks were first published: She President Enrique Pena Nieto. ton and with the UN in New chaos, have damaged US strate- careful. said she had no reason to believe According to the most recent York. gic credibility. American intelligence officials that she was being monitored. revelations, the NSA has been At the same time, the American l e a s t , July 12: The German Interior will remind him that US intelli- Asked in her office by journal- amassing and sifting seven mil- brand of capitalism has twice s t r e n g t h e n i n g Minister travels to Washington gence suffered in the 1990s when ists from the German weekly lion French data sets every day within a single decade precip- Europe’s defense, to meet with US officials. He Human Intelligence collectors Die Zeit whether she was sure, – phone calls, e-mails and text itated the world into a grave deterrence and praises the “noble objective” of were told to stand down and not the chancellor replied: “I am messages, including the commu- economic crisis. And with grid- offense capaci- the US surveillance program, talk to “bad” people. It’s possible confident that our experts are nications of the Quai d’Orsay, lock now the hallmark of the US ties in cyber- namely “to save lives in Ger- to create the same effect again if able to guarantee the security of of prominent businessmen, poli- political system, many feel Wash- space. Technical many.” we now tell Signals Intelligence these rooms.” ticians and public servants. In ington has forfeited the right to sovereignty is s July 14: In a TV interview collectors they cannot listen to Obviously, it never crossed her 80 places around the world – tell others what to do and how the new watch- Angela Merkel says that she is any “good” people. mind that her mobile phone, her including Berlin – US embassies to do it. word. “not aware of being spied on.” That will not satisfy some crit- preferred instrument of com- have been abused as digital spy The Nobel Peace Laureate pres- The short- ics, in the United States or abroad, munication, was not secure. At centers. ident’s drone warfare is earning term damage Aug. 12: Following a meeting but in a world of sovereign states the time, she asked Washington Something has gone terribly much criticism. Now, the James of the “handy- of the Bundestag’s intelligence G irib a a lli an ce/ ROPI /Jose and enduring dangers, that is the for explanations, but not too wrong here. Prism and other data Bond excesses of Obama’s espio- gate” spying oversight committee, Merkel’s pic t ure way things are. n insistently. Quite naively, she mining operations have become nage establishment belie his cam- scandal is chief of staff Ronald Pofalla believed the assurances paign promise to “lead e n o r m o u s . dismisses claims of mass NSA of a US agency whose the world by deed and (The German surveillance of Germans: “The director, James Clapper, by example.” word for claim of the alleged total recon- The digital as was already known There is no denying cellphone is naissance in Germany is off Former German Chancellor Should talks on the transatlantic at the time, had bra- the fact that the digital “ h a n d y . ” ) the table. There is no million- overlordship Helmut Schmidt (SPD) assumes free trade zone be suspended? SPD zenly lied to a Senate overlordship of the NSA Yet the fold violation of basic rights in Op-ed Germany that he was snooped on during parliamentary leader Frank-Wal- committee. Her interior of the NSA has caused a grave crisis U n i t e d Germany.” his tenure in office. Writing in ter Steinmeier in the Frankfurter minister denounced in the Atlantic Alliance. States and Aug. 16: Returning from his the weekly Die Zeit, he said he Süddeutsche Zeitung, Munich Die Zeit, Hamburg Allgemeine Sonntags­zeitung: criticism of American has caused No one should be sur- E u r o p e trip to Washington, German had always had a low opinion of Did Obama know about it? If not, Can we imagine Obama’s huge The greatest damage is the data mining as a mix of prised that Europe will still need Interior Minister Friedrich says the intelligence services: why not? Is his intelligence service surveillance machine giving up? loss of trust. We are nego- anti-Americanism and a grave crisis take measures to fore- each other. that “all the allegations that Everyone knows that running amok or does the US President de- Or the British and French stopping their tiating with the Americans over naiveté, and her chief stall similar encroach- They would were raised, have been cleared foreign intelligence ser- liberately know nothing, so he can play the monitoring of Germany’s digital traf- free trade between the United of staff declared: “The in the Atlantic ments on its sovereignty be foolhardy up.” vices throughout the world do innocent if his back is against fic? Or even the Russians States and Europe. That’s a very allegations are off the Alliance. in the furture. The Euro- if they allowed Oct. 24: German news weekly things that are illegal under local the wall? We may hazard one Outrage in Germany switching off the sensors in big project. That is why these ne- table; this issue is over.” pean Parliament has the ongoing Der Spiegel reports that an law. Or, they do what the law prediction: that the value of over NSA surveillance their Berlin embassy? Trust gotiations require a great amount Famous last words. already voted to sus- c o n t i n e n t a l investigation by German intel- requires but also what it does the information the US gov- of Angela Merkel’s cell is good, but verification is of trust on both sides. I see major In the meantime, it has become a perversion of anti-terrorism. pend the Swift Agreement which drift to sepa- ligence, prompted by research not require. That is why com- ernment gained by eavesdrop- phone was matched in better. Letting out your an- difficulties in bringing these talks obvious that the German gov- Only paranoid minds can hatch allows the sharing of banking rate them even from the magazine, found plau- mittees were established with ping on the Chancellor pales other countries such as ger is good for the soul, but to a successful conclusion if we ernment was lied to for months the idea that seizing close to 100 data with the US. Its president, further. A US sible information that Merkel's the task of monitoring the ac- in comparison to the political Brazil, Mexico and France upgrading your defenses is don’t finally establish clarity over – a circumstance that it meekly billion communications every Martin Schulz, went even fur- apology, sack- cellphone was targeted by tivities of intelligence services. damage that public knowledge that were also targets more dependable. There are US monitoring practices. tolerated. In retrospect, the accu- month makes the US safer, more ther, calling for the suspension of ing some NSA a US intelligence agency. They are staffed by people who of the surveillance has caused. of US spying. a hundred ways to stop the sation by Peer Steinbrück, then popular and more respected the EU-US negotiations about a culprits and the FDP leader Christian Lindner Merkel calls the White House feel important but do little. I al- Germany and the US could be digital snooping. That es- the Social Democratic candidate in the world. The risk–benefit transatlantic treaty on free trade candid presenta- wrote in the Frankfurter Allge- to demand clarification. n ways preferred to talk directly facing the deepest rift in their relations since tablishes respect – the firmest foundation for chancellor, that Merkel had analysis just doesn’t make sense. and investment. tion of the facts with Nixon, Kissinger, Ford and the crisis preceding the Iraq War. for any friendship. meine Zeitung: violated her oath of office by The NSA’s avowed goal of “total His call is unlikely to be heard, could help a great Reagan – and with Brezhnev and Without a transatlantic not energetically enough averting information awareness” divorces but the Europeans will surely deal to calm the Honecker as well. Die Welt, Berlin Handelsblatt, Düsseldorf privacy agreement, trans- damage to the German people, dominion over information tech- refuse to sign any treaty that does waters. For the I feel the current furor is artifi- There’s something extremely hyp- Free markets and free exchange atlantic free trade talks are point- sounds painfully plausible. She nology from accountability for not explicitly protect the pri- rest, all Western Publisher: Detlef W. Prinz leaders should take Executive Editor: Theo Sommer cial. Merkel was bugged. Feel- ocritical about the outrage over of ideas require trust. That trust less. (…) The US has at least as did not react when millions of its use. It demoralizes the demo- vacy and the “informational self- Editors: Peter H. Koepf, Kevin Lynch, the NSA. Everyone knows that, in this re- must exist not just among business part- strong an interest in intensifying Germans were affected – but she cratic political process. determination,” as the German the wise counsel to Lutz Lichtenberger ings of indignation are plausible flew off the handle when her own President Obama is said to constitution puts it, of their citi- heart which Law- Senior Art Director: Paul M. Kern but we do not know whether any spect, German intelligence services are not ners but among governments as well. It trade relations as Europe, so is- picture Layout: Manuel Schwartz, Mike Zastrow secrets were overheard and if so radical-democratic lambs either. They col- is now in jeopardy. Obama should have sues of commerce and civil rights cellphone was tapped. have told Chancellor Merkel zens. And they will not only make rence Fink, CEO of Times Media GmbH laborated with the NSA, forwarded infor- have to be packaged together. In SPD Chairman Sigmar Gabriel that he did not have the slightest US digital giants like Google, BlackRock, offered alliance/AP Pho Tempelhofer Ufer 23-24 what they are. As a head of gov- recognized this danger long ago. But per- 10963 Berlin, Germany ernment she must assume that mation to the NSA and received data from haps that is why the NSA hydra is not technological reality, “Big Broth- put it this way: “She defends the idea she had become the victim Facebook or Microsoft pay taxes America’s politicians www.times-media.de to mend their dysfunc- [email protected] any intelligence service that has them in return. If we condemn the NSA’s backing down – because it has developed er” and “Big Data” work hand- interests of the US secret services of his Special Collection Service. in the EU, but also require them Phone +49 30-2150-5400 practices, it is because our resources are in-hand anyway. Europe can rather than the interests of German It had apparently been tapping to get approval from European tional political system: t a life of its own and can no longer be eas- o/Jens Meyer Fax +49 30-2150-5447 the technology is listening in on citizens.” Aware of the harsh her cellphone since 2002 – and in regulators before releasing any a return to good faith, ISSN 2191-6462 her. I would advise the Chancel- inferior. ily restrained. stand up and say: freedom comes Press deadline: November 1, 2013 lor to maintain her composure. before free trade. strictures directed at her on this all likelihood the phones of her data on EU citizens to American civil deliberation and account, Merkel changed tack. more important ministers as well. intelligence agencies. mutual respect. n 6 November 2013 7

eople, companies and in accordance with all formal authorities in Germany and practical restrictions in Ger- are worried. Reports and many, which also apply to Ger- files supplied by whistle- The spying continues mans abroad. Judicial and par- When in doubt, choose freedom blowerP Edward Snowden show liamentary oversight must also that foreign intelligence services, The German government must act to shield its citizens’ data from foreign be applicable. above all the National Security Internationally the German gov- Cybersecurity can only be effective if it is based on fundamental rights | By Alexander Graf Lambsdorff Agency (NSA), have tapped into surveillance – A view from the opposition benches | By Hans-Christian Ströbele ernment should insist on bind- millions of calls and electronic ing and tough privacy protection n history books, June 6th, Alongside political and diplo- conversations within Germany standards in global data traffic. 1944 has been marked as matic efforts, technical measures and continue to suck up, store and Article 17 of the International “D-Day” – the launch of the are imperative, especially since scrutinize many more. Covenant on Civil and Politi- decisive military operation by it transpired that the diplomatic Since June, new details have Ithe Western Allies that liberated cal Rights, which, like Article 8 missions of the EU in the US were been coming to light on an almost of the European Convention on Europe. It is quite possible that bugged. The EU’s first Cyber Secu- weekly basis. Many have yet to be Human Rights, protects privacy Edward Snowden didn’t have this rity Strategy, which was launched acknowledged and properly inves- and personal information, could historical date in mind when he earlier this year, comprises tech- tigated. The German government be structured accordingly; safe- initiated his own operation exactly nical and legal proposals regard- has disputed mass surveillance of guards should be agreed between 69 years later. On June 6, 2013, ing the internal market, justice data flows within Germany. It the EU and USA as part of the however, he revealed an unprec- and home affairs and also foreign is undisputed that German data future Transatlantic Trade and edented mass surveillance that is policy aspects of cyberspace issues. traffic routed through servers and Investment Partnership (TTIP) the biggest intelligence scandal of The increase in online economic the big Internet providers in the agreement and its conclusion our times. The liberators of the espionage and its threats to EU

US as well as via fiber-optic hubs röbele t i an St made provisional to a binding past, the United States and the governments and companies are in the UK is being monitored and “no spy” agreement. Current EU United Kingdom, are the alleged explicitly dealt with. stored – maybe even in the US data protection legislation should villains of the present. To ensure a high common level embassy in Berlin? be revised to include a provision Since then, there has been a steady of cybersecurity, a number of The German government and a / B üro Han s- C hris that data transfers to the US and drip of troubling and embarrassing Computer Emergency Response Chancellor Angela Merkel herself non-EU states with low data pro- disclosures. The data mining by the Teams (CERTs) operate in promised a quick and thorough a lli an ce/ d p tection standards through compa- “Five Eyes” strategic alliance of each EU member state under investigation. They sent written nies such as Facebook and Google Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the framework of the European inquiries to the US and Britain. pic t ure must be licensed by European the UK and the USA has clearly Union Agency for Network and German opposition lawmaker Christian Ströbele (Greens) with NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden in Russia on Oct. 31. We do not yet know how or supervisory authorities. gone overboard. The National Information Security (ENISA). whether these were answered. From its EU partner Britain, Ger- and Tempora are being used for He has said repeatedly that he is offered to them by the US or The German government Security Agency (NSA) and Brit- And with the launch of the Euro-

They held talks and sent delega- many must insist on answers to purposes of corporate espionage. would be available as a witness the UK. should act to suspend and re- ain’s Government Communica- The NSA headquarters ges pean Cybercrime Centre (EC3) at tions, yet the chancellor and her whether, together with the NSA, Monitoring of EU offices, German to further investigations. So far The same applies to citizens of negotiate the Safe Harbor agree- tions Headquarters (GCHQ), in in Fort Meade, Maryland, Europol, a European focal point ministers have shied away from the Government Communications ministries, embassies, authorities no court proceedings have been other states if, according to their ment with the US, because in particular, are said to have spied has 17,000 parking spaces. in the fight against cybercrime was asking for specifics and demand- Headquarters (GCHQ) intelli- and companies violates data pro- opened. The German government laws, data was collected illegally the United States there is no on millions of EU citizens, mainly A FP / G e tt y im a established. ing replies. gence service really is using its tection and criminal laws. should champion this cause. – for instance by the NSA sift- comparable data protection German and French. In the United jected to this kind of attack from Adopting the EU data protection resolution was inevitable since Cyber security can only be effec- Instead, they announced nego- Tempora software to tap transcon- German prosecutors must probe The government must also ing through the contact lists of guarantee for Europeans. Berlin States, the NSA collected masses Washington, and Washington directive must now be an urgent there were clear indications that tive, however, if it is based on tiations on a “no-spy” agreement. these allegations, using Snowden’s ensure, through guidance and pro- hundreds of millions of e-mail should also move forward with of metadata in clear violation of gets caught due to its strangely priority. The British and, astound- Alexander Graf TFTP, also known as the Swift freedoms and fundamental rights But in the meantime the spying files as their foundation. They must hibitions, that German authori- and messaging customers illegally the fourth amendment – framed ineffective protection of sensitive ingly, the German government Lambsdorff (FDP) Agreement, has been abused by Hans-Christian Ströbele a breach of contract complaint is a member of as enshrined in the Charter of Fun- continues. Merkel’s government is a Member of the – using current law enforcement ties do not use data about the and without the authorization of against Britain because of its explicitly to protect law-abiding US data (as already witnessed in the chose to delay its adoption until the NSA. damental Rights of the European Bundestag for the the Foreign Affairs has yet to act to put a stop to it. opposition Greens. treaties – demand information from German people collected through the secret US Foreign Intelligence Government Communications citizens from unreasonable searches Wikileaks affair), a deep and seri- 2015. Committee of the James Clapper, Director of Union. Reciprocally, individuals’ The German government’s He sits on the the US and Britain and interview illegal surveillance. Communica- Surveillance Court (FISA). Headquarters, if the EU Com- by government agents. ous breach of trust in the transat- On such a legal basis Europe European Union National Intelligence, admitted rights and freedoms can only be Parliamentary Parliament. foremost duty is to protect the Oversight Committee, Snowden as a witness. tions data that has been covertly The German government must mission does not. Reconstructing transatlantic lantic friendship is no longer just could speak with one voice in the that information was collected to secured with efficient law enforce- country’s people, businesses and which monitors the This could be done in Moscow. collected, stored and analyzed re-negotiate agreements on the The German government should relations after George W. Bush a hypothetical contingency. It is future when faced with scandals Sabine Schründer evaluate other countries’ economic ment, safe networks and systems authorities from harm, including activities of Germany’s It would be preferable, however, without a court order or parlia- presence and stationing of foreign left office was one of President too early to tell what the political of this kind. It is a farce that policy and to be able to foresee – and authorities able to strike a intelligence services. broadly support the continued shielding their data from foreign if Snowden and his documents mentary control is tainted. Its use armed forces in Germany, espe- development of easily accessible Barack Obama’s major foreign consequences of these revelations Francois Hollande did not call Merkel-NSA international financial crises. But balance between these fundamen- andreas weeger snooping. The government must were available to German law is forbidden in Germany, as is all cially the NATO Status of Forces technological protection stan- policy achievements. It may well will eventually look like but the President Obama until French this was never the aim of the TFTP tal rights and interests. insist vigorously that the US fully Merkel-NSA enforcement. To make that pos- other information that has been Agreement and its supplemen- dards against data leakage. Those go up in smoke if the US does risk of transatlantic estrangement citizens were affected by NSA From a civil rights perspec- when the European Parliament Werner Maihofer, a German account for its actions. It must sible he should be granted free gathered illegally or by criminal tary pacts. The goal must be to who encrypt their correspondence not deal with the fallout from looks more real than at any other surveillance; Angela Merkel only tive, an important first step was gave its assent in 2010. So it is liberal politician and legal phi- demand answers on whether the tinental undersea cables that carry passage, a German visa and means. ensure that foreign troops in Ger- should not be placed under suspi- this scandal in an appropriate time in post-war history. called Obama when she found made when the European Parlia- right to examine these allegations losopher, once said: “Total secu- NSA, using its Prism and XKey- much of the world’s data traffic. It witness protection. Doing so German intelligence services many must verifiably and without cion or surveillance as a result. US manner. So what can European countries out that her own mobile phone ment recently called for tempo- in the course of a full technical rity means total restriction. Total Score software, has sifted through must leverage EU institutions to would also be appropriate on are not permitted to circumvent exception observe German law. companies including CryptoSeal The latest disclosures added a and the European Union do to was a target; and David Cameron rary suspension of the Terror- onsite investigation and to con- freedom means total insecurity. hundreds of millions of electronic stop these adversarial, even hostile humanitarian grounds, because German law by gathering and In particular, agreements must and Lavabit, which offer secure new dimension to the situation. protect the privacy of their citizens probably didn’t call at all because ist Finance Tracking Program sider renegotiation where appro- The liberal position is to find the transmissions by Germans that practices that contradict the letter Snowden’s revelations have using information on Germans be negotiated with the US and e-mail correspondence and have It wasn’t just ordinary people’s and governments? British intelligence carried out its (TFTP) agreement, which grants priate, in particular over the Safe right balance. And if security and it received from companies like and the spirit of the EU treaties. done a great service to human obtained from US or British intel- Britain that communications data run into trouble in the US, should data being collected but also those First and foremost, Europe has own operations against fellow EU US authorities access to the bank Harbor agreement for EU data freedom are clashing: in dubio pro Google, Facebook, Skype, Yahoo The government must clarify and civil rights worldwide and ligence. Other German authorities on German citizens may only be be offered help to relocate to Ger- of the German chancellor. When to agree on common standards of member states, a clear breach of data of European citizens for ter- on US soil that the US signed and libertate. When in doubt, choose and AOL. whether and to what extent Prism in Germany. may not analyze such data if it collected, stored and analyzed many. n allied Western leaders are sub- data protection and data security. the EU treaty. ror-related investigations. This apparently violated. freedom.” n

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ussia’s ambivalent posi- not ruled out, the project’s name National Bank of Kazakhstan, the opposite view. He is against tance of other centers of power Turkey will participate in the tion between East and – “Eurasian Integration” – was recently discussed this issue in a the Union’s enlargement in princi- and to delineate its own stable project. West, Asia and Europe rather far-fetched. Of the four televised interview. Speaking to ple (Armenia and Kyrgyzstan are orbit. This is still possible in There is also an idea to form is part of its national core members of the planned Russia 24 TV channel, he said the most likely candidates) unless the security sphere – the Geor- a bridge between the two large Rculture and an endless source of association, only Kazakhstan is that “neither Ukraine nor Turkey the three founding members build gian War has stopped NATO’s areas of integration, laid down intellectual debate through the really part of Eurasia, while the will be able to fully integrate into an efficient mechanism to ensure enlargement – but it is not likely in policy in several documents, centuries. From time to time, this other three are oriented towards the European Union. Therefore equality for all. But if genuine when it comes to the creation of cultural dualism turns into a geo- Europe – not the EU but Europe’s they both should be invited to equality is not achieved, the value a space of norms and rules that political debate about competi- cultural, historical and geographi- the Customs Union, where the of integration will be low. would attract others. tion with other powers. Now we cal area. decision-making process should Russia faces a difficult dilemma: Moscow’s ability to counterbal- Fyodor Lukyanov face another round. If Ukraine is ruled out, the be built in such a way that they It is too large and has too obvious ance rival centers, be it the EU or is editor-in-chief This time the focus is on Kiev, “Eurasian” nature of the project would not be afraid that Russia an expansionist history to imple- China, is limited. Its efforts to of the journal Russia prompted by the expected sign- becomes more real. Its main would dominate and that their ment a regional integration pro­ prevent the withdrawal of poten- in Global Affairs. ing of the Ukrainian Association vector would be toward the east interests would not be taken into ject without causing fear among tial ex-Soviet partners may fail, Agreement and the Deep and and southeast. The question is, of due account.” its neighbors. At the same time, as seems to be happening with private Comprehensive Free Trade Agree- course, how much this orientation Kazakhstan and Belarus are it is not large enough (economi- Ukraine. The alternative is the ment (DCFTA) with the European would find acceptance in Russian also concerned about the equal- cally and in terms of influence) to construction of a joint space with Russia Union. The atmosphere surround- society, which has been swept by ity problem. In this context, overcome the some of the other centers. But ing this event, due to take place anti-immigrant attitudes and is Marchenko came up with r e s i s - then Russia would have to defend including Putin’s article two years in Vilnius in late November, has prone to cold-shouldering Asia. an even bigger idea. He its own right to equality. ago, in which he launched his been quite overheated as both But Ukraine’s absence would said the Customs “Co-creation” with the West is Eurasian integration project. But Russia and the EU have blown have one more consequence. Any Union should hardly possible, as the EU offers there is no formula for its prac- up a routine bureaucratic proce- association that provides for joint be extended integration only on its own terms, tical implementation. It is too dure into a geopolitical Rubicon. decision-making and the partial by association that is, if others adopt ready-made abstract. However, everyone agrees that secession of sovereignty needs a g r e e m e n t s European norms and rules. In the When the Eurasian project first the Vilnius meeting will mark a to establish an internal balance. with China East, there is more room for flex- emerged, things seemed much new stage in the development of All members must be confident and Mon- ibility – norms and rules there easier. Russia, which had just what is habitually called the post- that by delegating their rights golia. “Then will be created anew. At the recovered from a geopolitical Soviet space. they will not become targets of there will be same time, it will be difficult to shock, wanted to restore what In Russia we used to think that discrimination. Such guarantees a basically defend one’s vision there it could of its former glory in the our neighbors were torn between must be bolstered, above all, by different criti- if Russia assumes old Soviet territory. But precisely the choice of Russia and someone the association’s institutions and cal mass and in earnest that this has turned out not to be pos- else – Europe, China, America. a system of checks and balances basically dif- major states sible. On the other hand, Russia’s But now Russia itself faces a that ensures equal opportunities ferent relations such as self-identification depends on this serious choice: Moscow has to for all. both within the China project’s future. decide how far it is ready to go When European integration Customs Union o r It might come to pass that, as in the name of President Putin’s began in the 1950s, its founders and with Euro- a result of the successful imple- integration project, the existing – France, Germany, Italy and the pean neighbors.” mentation of the Eurasian inte- Customs Union (Russia, Belarus, Benelux countries – were roughly It requires a bold gration idea, Moscow will Kazakhstan) which he wants to of equal size. Post-Soviet inte- flight of fancy to not be the main capital of transform into a Eurasian Eco- gration involving Russia dooms imagine a Customs Eurasia but will have to nomic Union by January 2015. the project to an inherent imbal- Union uniting post- yield first place to Bei- To what extent is Russia ready ance – all its possible partners are Soviet countries as jing or Ankara. Then to make concessions today for significantly inferior to it in the well as Turkey and Moscow might turn the sake of building an associa- economic, political and demo- China. But it is easy to back to Europe for tion that may yield dividends in graphic scope. imagine whose goods a counterweight the future? Of course, Ukraine would not be would dominate in to the emerg- There is one more important an equal counterweight to Russia, that common market. ing Eurasian point. If Ukraine really enters yet the overall balance would be Yet Marchenko’s giants. n on an EU path that will rule out different if it joined. After all, train of thought is its institutional rapprochement Ukraine is a country with a popu- understandable – as with Russia (which everyone is lation of more than 40 million, things stand now, a now talking about), the union with a potentially strong economy transition to a quali- Moscow is lobbying so hard for and a very unyielding political tatively deeper inte- may never turn out the way it mentality. Strangely enough, the gration is unlikely. was planned. absence of such a state in the asso- But if real heavy- It is no secret that the most ciation will be a problem for the weights are added serious integration projects of strongest member as it would be to the Union, the Russia – the Common Economic feared by all the others on account smaller countries will Space and the Customs Union – of its sheer weight. have more room to were launched largely with an eye Grigory Marchenko, one of the maneuver. to Ukraine; for economic and, most respected economists in the Ukrainian President especially, geopolitical reasons. former Soviet Union who has Alexander Lukash- While Kiev’s membership was just resigned as president of the enko expressed

Strategic considerations: Russian President Vladimir Putin playing billiards.

picture alliance/dpa

continued from page 1 Call of duty Finally, from the point of view of many But what are the necessary deci- Policy. The world – Making Europe stronger and more younger officers in particular, this frag- sions? Where are the ideas? Who is and we Europeans capable – that would truly be a worth- mentation is also far removed from the moving ahead? Up to now only one – want clarity while slogan for the new German govern- operational needs they have experienced thing is clear: that not nearly enough about the goals, ment. Incidentally, the preamble of the in Afghanistan and other missions over has happened. i n s t r u m e n t s , German Basic Law still provides the best the past ten to fifteen years. For them, In certain areas – the European and methods of basis for German foreign and security having served together with many NATO Air Transport Command (EATC) European security policy today: “to promote world peace partners, interoperability on the ground is a good example – progress has policy. Moreover, the in a united Europe.” is absolutely essential. Effectively, we are certainly been made. But why not German government The center-right Christian Democrats failing our soldiers so far in this regard. think bigger? Why not, for instance, could and should electoral program from 2013 states: “In The European governments are aware have a European fleet in the Baltic? push ahead coura- the long run, we strive for the establish- of the ineffective and inefficient use of Of course, we are still a long way geously in ques- ment of a European army.” The Social defense expenditure. They are just as from far-reaching decisions regard- tions of majority Democrats take a similar view, as indi- aware of the conclusion that signifi- ing specialization or full integration. decisions con- cated, for instance, by Sigmar Gabriel’s cantly greater cooperation on defense is Ultimately, this affects an area that cerning foreign speech to the German Armed Forces Staff the only way of addressing this problem. has, for centuries, been at the heart policy. After College in Hamburg in July 2011, when he This realization is reflected in the initia- of national sovereignty – and one In other words: What is the worth of all, we have absolutely said: “We should push forward a concrete tives of Pooling and Sharing in the Euro- that brings with it many difficult and sovereignty, traditionally understood, nothing to fear from the majority of project […]: a joint European army.” Just pean framework, and Smart Defense in uncomfortable questions. if an individual European state is no the small EU member states – quite the because a goal is “long-term” does not the NATO framework. Hardly a talk And yet to conclude that we should longer in any way capable of action on opposite. mean it can be put on the back burner. is given or a declaration signed where forgo all ambition, strikes me as too its own? Would not such sovereignty Finally, none of this means that our alli- The new German government now has the importance of more cooperation is short-sighted. The Dutch Defense be meaningless? ance with the US will be any less meaning- an excellent opportunity to emphasize not stressed. Minister, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, If just a tiny step forward is made ful in the future. The US is making it clear and push this very issue, beginning at the For example: The Franco-German dec- a significant voice in the European at the European Council meeting in how important a functional and united European Council in December, and to laration of Feb. 6, 2012 states that “In debate, posed the question correctly December, this will be too little as Europe is for them, too. To quote Vice keep it high on the agenda. That would times of strategic uncertainty and limited at the 2013 Munich Security Confer- far as European defense integration is President Joe Biden, from his speech at the not only be beneficial for Europe. It resources, strengthened defense requires ence: “Should we really fear the loss concerned. We need ambitious goals. Munich conference earlier this year: “A would also be a clear and very welcome common procurement. As a consequence, of sovereignty? Or should we rather The European Council should also strong and capable Europe is profoundly sign that Berlin is ready to further accept we must be ready to take the necessary define the concept of sovereignty in commission, in particular, an EU in America’s interest, and I might add, its central responsibility for peace in and decisions.” a less traditional way?” White Paper on Security and Defense presumptuously, the world’s interest.” around Europe. n 10 November 2013 November 2013 11

ig wars, fought between This became harder in the face of difficulty of policy integration the world’s greatest casualties and without obvious between monarchies, autocra- powers from the rise of political progress. The false promise cies, communist systems and lib- Napoleon to the collapse The future Should it be deemed necessary to eral democracies. ofB communism, are now fortu- take punitive action against a cruel Fourth, it is perhaps not surpris- nately a thing of the past. They are regime or terrorists using chaotic ing that in many regions levels of now spoke of as “old” wars and societies as bases from which to institutionalization are restricted to there are good reasons to suppose mount attacks across borders, then of regionalism minimal forms of coordination and their obsolescence. There is now of warfare the current preference, drawing cooperation. As long as antagonis- little sufficiently existential to be on the development of classes of tic controversies linger and interfere worth fighting about. Well-devel- Large modern states are reluctant to go to war weapons that offer high accuracy with attempts at conflict resolution, oped forms of dispute resolution over long distances, is to engage in most regions will remain far from exist. And, most important, it is because the most likely outcome is utter catastrophe either symbolic strikes or even tar- the substantial levels of integration well understood that should fight- geted assassinations. The problem found in the EU. ing begin the most likely outcome By Lawrence Freedman with such methods is that what- Finally, while some may regard will be utter catastrophe. ever their short-term effects, they nation states as obsolete, they Optimists note that the various provide no basis for the imposition remain the decisive and defin- reasons why nations once went of a political settlement. Thisre- ing actors in global affairs. In to war , from imperial rivalry quires land forces. The experience A fractured world order would be less theory, increasing regionalization to ideological competition, have with Syria shows how in addition stable and more difficult to manage may lead to a world order char- played themselves out while the Russia and China remain reluc- acterized by more stability and growth of international trade and tant to allow any UN authority to less hierarchy than one based on

By Eberhard Sandschneider ges finance has created new forms of interference in the internal affairs nation states. In reality, however, inter-dependence that encourage of even the most brutal states. the instability within regions and rio I m a Va cooperation. If engagement with “new” the neglect of trans-regional coop- The great powers became wars is in decline might there egionalism is not a recently became the first to decline Africa found the idea attractive tantly, will they help to produce Therefore, most forms of region- eration may bring about an ever involved in a number of wars be a revival of “old” wars? It is new phenomenon in a non-permanent seat on the enough to convene their own sum- global public goods at reasonable alism are difficult to manage, their more polycentric world order – after1945, and were at times close not hard to list the reasons why international relations. United Nations Security Council, mits under the new moniker and cost – if at all? One may have specific political and economic which by definition is less stable to combat with each other, if only such wars would be foolish and Regional cooperation criticizing UN powerlessness and discuss non-Western approaches grave doubts. weight is hard to assess. and more difficult to manage than through proxies. But the cold war Rand conflict have always been its inability to act over Syria. The counter-productive, especially if to global politics. First of all, regionalism per se Third, most regions – perhaps multipolar, bipolar or even hege- never turned hot in part because the belligerents were both nuclear defining aspects of historical devel- Saudis are not the only ones to ASEAN, NAFTA, ECOWAS, is not a guarantee for the pro- with the exception of Europe monic structures. of the prospect of “mutual assured powers, setting successful societies opments both on the national and fundamentally challenge Western Mercosur, the OAU and the SCO duction of public goods. In most – show a high degree of intra- So far, several sensitive ques- destruction.” back by decades, their civil and global levels. But in recent years, hopes for the future of institu- not only add to the plethora of regions of the world, conflicts regional diversity. Low levels tions remain unanswered: Will It has been argued that instead of economic achievements in rubble the importance of new forms of tions that used to predominantly acronyms haunting the under- between states trump the capaci- the world divide up into several the “old”, great-power, industrial- and their populations depleted and regional cooperation and coordi- serve Western interests and follow standing of international rela- ties of conflict resolution and major trading blocs. Will weaker scale wars we now face “new” traumatized. nation has come to be regarded as Western rules. tions, they also represent a trend cooperation. Even economic win- Eberhard countries suffer from the predom- wars, eruptions within fragile Were fighting to begin for what- a new defining feature of global Many emerging countries seem toward new forms of regionalism. win-situations are jeopardized Sandschneider inance of regional powerhouses? states fought between antagonis- politics. But the risk of regional to be concentrating on alterna- is Director of the ever reason between such states This could well become the defin- when border conflicts, resource Research Institute What effects will new power cur- tic communities or in rebellion they would have an interest in organizations threatening effective tive strategies. Instead of aiming ing development for global rela- competition, historical legacies of the German rencies such as financial reserves against corrupt regimes. They tend avoiding escalation and keeping forms of global governance is more for complicated, costly, slow and tions in the decades ahead. driven by nationalism and acts Council on Foreign and monetary stability have on Relations (DGAP). to involve irregular forces, fight- a war limited. However, such than obvious. ultimately highly implausible From a historical perspective, of symbolic supremacy plague the distribution of power within ing with each other or against the restraint has not been tested. As European nations have made reforms, they focus on building however, times of increased intra-regional relations. dgap and between regions? regular forces of the state. Perhaps conflict between states the biggest progress in regional alternative institutional frame- regional cooperation have consis- Second, regions are never clearly Global politics is far from reach- There is nothing really “new” with smaller nuclear arsenals, and integration, most Europeans works no longer based on rules tently been replaced by hegemonic defined. Outside observers cannot Regionalism ing a new balance between differ- about such wars. Throughout less-developed crisis management believe in the importance of inte- dominated by western countries. or multipolar structures. The per- rely on them as their membership ent actors. While regional coopera- history societies have torn them- might lead to more risk-taking. grated global governance and New power projections almost petual dream of liberal institu- and their concerns are subject to of cohesion, competing identi- tion may help to reduce the levels selves apart with considerable Even after they both tested nuclear global institutions. Most Europe- automatically lead to new forms of tionalism that the world will one frequent change. In addition, they ties, differences in geographical of tension among major players, violence, as local disputes and weapons in the late 1990s, Paki- ans certainly believe in the neces- cooperation in the space between day be governed by regional or are constantly exposed and vul- size, economic development and hopes for the emergence of an rivalries have become unmanage- stan and India have been close to sity to reform the United Nations nation states and global insti- (even better) global networks of nerable to global influences, even most importantly different politi- intermediate level of global gov- able. Such violence often peters war a couple of times. in order to improve the quality of tutions. When Goldman Sachs cooperation may well remain a to great power influence. cal systems complicate progress ernance are premature. Growing out through exhaustion. On Most commentators would sug- global governance. invented the acronym BRICS, the dream. Technological changes (such as toward substantive regional regionalism might well be an addi- occasion one side prevails, with gest that the most probable (which Saudi Arabia’s leadership heads of government of Brazil, Will these new forms of region- in trade and communications) integration. East and Southeast tional part of the problem – and perhaps a regime overthrown and is not to say likely) setting for wars doesn’t. The Saudi government Russia, India, China and South alism prevail? Even more impor- can also have a disruptive impact. Asia, in particular, prove the only rarely part of the solution. n replaced. Sometimes these con- between major powers would be flicts never quite end and soci- the Asia-Pacific region. There are, eties suffer recurring disorder. for example, worrying levels of Such wars therefore represent antagonism, fuelled by national- continuity rather than novelty in ism, between China and Japan human affairs. with an ongoing dispute over the What has changed is how they Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. If either have caught the attention of side used armed force, then mat- major powers. Once the colonial ters could soon get very dangerous. powers understood the difficulties ges But the most important develop- of holding onto territory in the o n I m a ment would be if the United States face of a hostile local population, weighed in on the side of its ally,

interventions tended to reflect the a lli an ce/ Ik Japan. This could lead to a clash strategic imperatives of the Cold between two nuclear powers on a War. Then the American experi- pic t ure matter one side considers to be a ence in Vietnam during the 1960s affecting their wider neighbor- in 1991, and peaked during the tious. Opponents who could lose vital, territorial interest and which and the Soviet Union’s during hoods. 2000s with the campaigns in Iraq themselves amongst the people raises for the other the integrity of the 1980s in Afghanistan warned No longer preparing for “old” and Afghanistan. had to be dealt with using levels its alliance commitments. that substantial interventions wars, the established powers had The novelty, therefore, lay Lawrence Freedman of discrimination that would be The question of a future war is to is Professor of were unwise in support of regimes more capacity to engage with in the number of states suscep- War Studies and irrelevant in battles between regu- a large extent one about the future with limited popular support in these conflicts. For a while they tible to internal conflict and the Vice-Principal King's lar forces. of international politics. New countries imperfectly understood did so because of genuine humani- unprecedented degree of external College London. For the moment intervention is weaponry, from nuclear bombs and against patient and resolute tarian concerns, aspirations to meddling. Western armed forces in decline because of the frustrat- to “smart” drones, opens up new enemies. strengthen the institutions and became very busy with these private ing and painful experience of the ways of causing death and destruc- After the end of the Cold War, economies of the weak states, interventions and had to learn, or past decade and evident fatigue tion, or of applying force in some the break-up of the former Soviet or concern that they might turn re-learn, forms of warfare quite Conflict resolution amongst the populations of the smarter, more precise manner. Union and Yugoslavia added to into sanctuaries for extreme and different to those geared to states serial interveners, notably the But the key questions still revolve the many new states that were in some cases fanatical politi- with military establishments simi- suffering extreme violence. But United States and Britain. These around what people believe to be once part of the former Euro- cal movements. The “new wars” lar to their own. when external forces faced armed interventions were always discre- worth fighting about, including pean empires. Many were deeply literature was prompted by the The results were mixed. There resistance with a degree of popular tionary and required governments humanitarian outrage, threats to divided and became the settings for period of regular intervention were successes where vulnerable support, their role became increas- to make a compelling case to sus- values as well as territories, and brutality and cruelty, potentially that began with the Gulf War populations were protected after ingly circumscribed and conten- tain political consent at home. treaty obligations. n

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www.times-media.de Closing date: Jan. 15, 2014 the more critical the November 2013 Section B 13 business, the more important the security Al-Qaeda still a global threat Exploiting instability following the Arab uprisings is currently the militant network’s most important project By Yassin Musharbash

London May 22, 2013 British soldier hackedSecurity to death Challenges

Moscow

UK Toulouse/Montauban shootings Caucasus Emirate Islamic Movement of March 11-19, 2011 Uzbekistan (IMU) FRANCE 3 Muslim soldiers, 1 Jewish teacher, 3 Jewish schoolchildren killed ÉTATS-UNIS UZBEKISTAN New York The Nusra Front Islamic State of Iraq Boston Ansar al-Sharia and the Levant Fort Hood ( Texas ) Washington 15 avril 2013 Madrid Al-Qaeda Attentat près de la ligne d’arrivée 5 novembre 2009, AFGHANISTAN Lashkar-e-Taiba Fusillade dans une base du marathon, Casablanca Algiers Ansar al-Sharia SYRIA IRAN militaire, treize victimes trois morts Haqqani Network ALGERIA Tripoli IRAQ MOROCCO Benghazi EGYPT PAKISTAN Pakistani Taliban (TTP) In Amenas LIBYA SAUDI ARABIA AQIM 1 Ansar al-Sharia NIGER 2 MAURITANIA Ansar Eddine Arlit AQAP INDIA Timbuctoo Al-Mourabitoun (INM) Mumbai Sanaa YÉMEN MALI Aden Ansar al-Sharia Niamey Boko Haram Abu Sayyaf Abuja Gujba PHILIPPINES NIGERIA SOMALIA UGANDA MALAYSIA KENYA Al-Shabaab Kampala INDONÉSIA Nairobi Mombasa Al-Qaeda Jemaah Islamiyah Dar es-Salam THE ORGANIZATION Al-Qaeda Al-Qaeda – General Command, Main Group TANZANIA AQIM “franchise” group explicitly recognized by al-Qaeda as part of the movement Bali Major attacks carried out by al-Qaeda and its affiliates Before the death of bin Laden (2011) After his death THE NEO-JIHADISTS Ansar Radical movement born out of the Arab Spring movement with the objective of creating an Islamic state

OTHER GROUPS AND INDIVIDUALS Boko Other jihadist groups with more or less stronger ties to al-Qaeda

1 AQIM (al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb) Major attacks 2 AQAP (al-Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula) “Lone wolf” attacks

Sphere of activity Degree of affiliation to al-Qaeda of the different groups Strong Weak

Gray zone: absence of a strong state, drugs trade and/or recurring conflict Military intervention Drone attack

Source: Le Monde

n September 2013, al-Qaeda Shabaab in Somalia. Or opaque, rebellions is currently al-Qae- outside the region is hard cur- and they are enthusiastic about from there. This is how AQAP published a five page Arabic as it is in relation to various local da’s most important project. rency in this regard. the proximity to Israel. Approxi- and AQIM came about. document called “General Jihadist groups across the Arab At first the uprisings weakened But the focus is now on the mately 6,000 non-Syrian Jihadists We are presently witnessing Clarifications for Jihad- world calling themselves Ansar al-Qaeda because the Jihadists Arab world – and on Africa, are currently in the country, many another transformation, as al- Iist Action.“ It was authored by al-Sharia, whose agendas overlap had always claimed they would where the expansion politics of have battlefield experience. They Qaeda not only shifts focus but Ayman al-Zawahiri, the Amir with al-Qaeda’s. Then again, the be the ones to cause the fall of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, constitute a troubling long-term also allows for more co-operation or leader of al-Qaeda, who had central leadership can appear like the “tyrannical“ Arab regimes, started years ago, are now paying problem in any scenario. Concerns and integration with local groups been Osama Bin Laden’s deputy a company’s headquarters, for or “the near enemy.” But this off. In the conflict that shook over what they may plan to do in at the expense of micro-man- and became his successor after example when the North African ideological defeat has since been Mali in 2012, AQIM’s fight- the future are rising in Jordan, agement by a central leadership, the Saudi was killed by US Navy branch, al-Qaeda in the Islamic compensated for by a huge influx ers played an important role, Lebanon and Turkey – even more which can’t be maintained under Seals in May 2011. The docu- Maghreb (AQIM), reprimands of volunteers, an active role in in alliance with other Jihadist so as al-Qaeda in Iraq is perpe- these circumstances. ment is fascinating for many rea- fighters for not filling in forms Syria’s civil war and large areas networks. They have been driven trating mass casualty attacks at Of course this transformation sons, but especially because it properly. Wile in other instances elsewhere in which the network out of Mali’s towns since, but are almost the rate seen in 2005 and comes at a risk: Al-Qaeda is lack- isn’t addressed to a Western audi- al-Qaeda even hides behind other can operate fairly freely for lack still in the region. 2006 while at the same time main- ing coherence and leadership. In ence as speeches by al-Qaeda’s names – like Jabhat al-Nusra in of state control. In addition, Jihadist veteran taining a presence in Syria. leadership often at least partly are Syria. After roughly a decade in which and training networks now con- In Egypt another pressing issue for propaganda purposes. Instead At first glance this may seem al-Qaeda’s main interest was to nect Northern Africa not only exists: Since the military unseated Yassin Musharbash it is, in Zawahiri’s own words, erratic. But from al-Qaeda’s plot spectacular attacks against with Mali but also with Nigeria. President Mohamed Morsi in July is a Berlin-based addressed to “the leaders of all point of view it is an asset to be Western targets, or “the far Add to that a large number of 2013, Islamists there feel disen- investigative reporter and terrorism analyst entities belonging to al-Qaeda able to appear in whatever form enemy,” the pendulum is now weapons that were acquired from franchised. Al-Qaeda is interested with the German and to our helpers and those who may be best at a given place or swinging back toward the near the Libyan army’s depots, and it in winning them over. It is partly weekly newspaper sympathize with us” as well as to moment in time. The case of enemy. This is not only a strategic becomes quite clear that a string for this reason that al-Zawahiri Die Zeit. “their followers, be they leaders Jabhat al-Nusra, now probably decision by the central leadership. of African states in which militant in his “guidelines“ portrays al- annika langosch T-Systems protects sensitive information with or individuals.” the strongest faction in Syria’s It is also what most new recruits Islamists are active may witness Qaeda as a group that will not This is a large group of people. civil war, illustrates that: Even are interested in. eruptions of violence instigated use excessive violence and Flashpoint And it is noteworthy that al- though the group was set up by This is not to say al-Qaeda is or supported by AQIM in the has a clear agenda. Egpytian tailor-made security and governance concepts. Zawahiri doesn’t seem to be plac- al-Qaeda in Iraq, it didn’t use no longer interested in launch- years to come. Muslim brotherhood support- AL-Qaeda ing a lot of emphasis on the brand that group’s name so as to not ing attacks on the West; Al- In Somalia meanwhile al- ers are not natural allies of www.t-systems.com/security name of his group. Instead every- alienate Syrians. Only after its Zawahiri called for them. And Shabaab may be under pressure; al-Qaeda, but a more focused, almost every theater body is invited to feel addressed. support base had solidified, did al-Qaeda’s branch in the Arab but as the attack on the Westgate more civil version of that group there are severe internal conflicts. So what is al-Qaeda in 2013? An the group admit to being part of Peninsula (AQAP), headquar- shopping mall in Nairobi, Kenya may be attractive to some. AQIM has splintered; al-Shabaab open network? Or still a hierar- the al-Qaeda nexus. tered in Yemen, is likely still in September 2013 demonstrated, A lot has been written in the assassinates dissident cadres; in chical organization? Is it a net- It is partly by this means that devoting resources to that end. Of the group is capable of high pro- past few years about the alleged Syria al-Qaeda is present with work of networks? Or a system al-Qaeda over the past two years all groups in the nexus they have file terror attacks. They may have end of al-Qaeda. Certainly, the two groups at the same time, one of franchise operations? managed to establish bridge- the greatest capabilities to do so. been helped by AQAP. But in US drone campaign has killed loyal to al-Zawahiri, the other to The truth is that al-Qaeda in heads in Arab countries destabi- With Ibrahim al-Asiri they have either case there is little reason many important leaders and the AQIM leadership. 2013 is all of the above. Al- lized by rebellions. In Libya and a master bomb maker in their to assume that strikes like this diminished the group’s capabili- All of this has weakened al- Qaeda can be structured as it is in in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula for ranks who has already proven will not happen again as long as ties. But al-Qaeda is once more Qaeda. The organization is not Yemen. But it is also open, given example it is quite evident that his expertise when AQAP tried to African Union forces are fighting proving to be very resilient – in good shape – as an organiza- that the central leadership has al-Qaeda plays a role – in all but down a US jet in 2009 and two al-Shabaab in Somalia. because it is able to adapt. Just tion. But what could be called the repeatedly asked sympathizers in name. Should al-Qaeda cadres cargo planes in 2010. In the Middle East prospects as it did, for example, at the global Jihadist movement – with the West to act in its name and one day feel they would benefit Furthermore, AQAP’s Amir are equally bleak. The demise of beginning of the Afghanistan war al-Qaeda at its helm – is faring on their own initiative. from the brand name, they will Nasir al-Wuhayshi has recently the Assad regime is clearly not when the group all but gave up well. The net result is as troubling Al-Qaeda’s presence and influ- introduce it there. been promoted to al-Qaeda’s the only aim that Jihadists are its safe haven and ordered most as it is evident: Al-Qaeda and its ence can be obscure as is the case The exploitation of the unsta- overall Number 2. He will want pursuing in Syria. They want to cadres to go back to their home allies are as big a threat to global with the co-operation with al- ble situation following the Arab to prove his ability, and an attack establish an Islamist proto-state; countries to continue the project security as they have ever been. n

290x530_AZ_Kirmes_EN.indd 1 23.10.13 16:20 14 November 2013 November 2013 15 The Security Times • Challenges DiscretionThe Security Times guaranteed • Challenges Germany provides a forum for talks as isolated North Korea seeks contact with the US | By Matthias Nass

iscretion was the top priority on Sept. 25 and 26, when delegations from two countries This satellite image appears to show thatD aren’t officially talking to each new construction at North Korea’s Sohae missile launch site other gathered in a Berlin hotel. near the northern border with China. Diplomacy calls this kind of talks “track two.” It’s where you meet when you have nothing to say to each other at government level – like Americans and North Koreans. They sat together for two days in a Mercure Group hotel. The diplomats who arrived from Pyongyang would normally play

picture alliance/dpa a prominent role in any official negotiations. They included Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Ri Yong-ho and Choi Seon-hee, the Deputy Director General of the American Affairs Bureau. The US delegation was led by two of the country’s most expe- Are military defense cuts rienced diplomats. Stephen W. affecting the readiness of NATO forces? Bosworth served as Special Repre- sentative for North Korea Policy and currently heads the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins Uni- versity. Robert Gallucci was the chief US negotiator during the North Korean nuclear crisis in Don’t underestimate the West 1994 and, after leaving govern- ment work, became the dean of 8,500 o Georgetown University’s School t Rising powers continue to increase defense spending but NATO forces remain powerful | By Alexander Nicoll of Foreign Service. 7,700 The Americans did not come as

e all know today’s armed forces have been forced The second factor was the ‘war reduction from the president’s Lightning (Joint Strike Fighter) geting abilities with networked envoys of their government. They a lli an ce/A P ho headline about to transform themselves, leaving on terror’ declared by President 2011 defense budget request, program – in spite of budget cuts. surveillance and intelligence tech- had taken the initiative them- defense: the United behind the more static postures of George W. Bush in response to spread over five years; and a The trends are different else- nologies so that air and maritime selves. The US State Department pic t ure States and Europe the Cold War. the 9/11 attacks. This brought a further ‘sequestration’ of some where. According to the Military capabilities have become much believes that anyone meeting with areW in headlong decline, and the the North Koreans is naïve, one The change is not as all encom- divergence in trends on either side $500bn over ten years from 2013 Balance 2013, defense spending in more integrated with operations new big spenders are Asia’s rising passing as that forecast by advo- of the Atlantic, with America’s if no new fiscal legislation could NATO Europe fell in real terms on the ground. participant said. But it would be Global nuclear arsenal powers. On one level, the story is cates of the 1990s ‘Revolution in defenses expanding rapidly and be passed, which it was not. by 2.6 percent in 2011 and 1.5 The time taken to identify a hard to find any ex-diplomats correct. The extent of reductions Military Affairs’, in which new Europe’s remaining essentially percent in 2012. In Asia, continu- target and then strike it has short- more experienced and free of illu- January 2013 in the Pentagon’s budget may technologies were seen as offer- stable or in slow decline. ing rapid economic growth (even ened considerably. As budgets fall, sions in dealing with dictatorships Total inventory of warheads end up greater even than those ing command of a ‘battlespace.’ NATO figures show that Ameri- Alexander Nicoll though slowing somewhat) has led unmanned systems can help to like North Korea than Bosworth Scanrail/Fo mandated under congressional That vision proved unrealistic. can spending rose 100 percent is Senior Fellow defense spending higher, so that in maintain this edge. In addition, the and Gallucci, the source added. Deployed warheads sequestration, and Asia is now But today’s Western armed forces in real terms between 2000 and for Geo-economics 2012 in nominal terms it exceeded nature of the wars in Afghanistan In the US, where people and t and Defense at the olia.com spending more than Europe on instead use new military and com- 2010, while NATO Europe’s International Institute that of NATO Europe for the first and Iraq has provided substantial ideas circulate briskly between its militaries. But all such assess- mercial technologies in innova- fell just two percent in the same for Strategic Studies. time, with China accounting for a ground combat experience, includ- the government, think tanks and Source: SIPRI Yearbook 2013 ments depend on the timeframe. tive ways to help them deal with period. As a proportion of GDP, large part of the rise. ing in difficult terrains. Militaries universities, it’s often possible If we consider the period since the real-world battlefield threats. They to make things happen without American defense spending aver- private It is useful, however, to keep in have had to adapt to enemy tactics 2,150 Cold War as a whole, the budget have been taught hard lessons, aged 3.4 percent in the first half mind that the United States is still such as the planting of improvised holding government office. That 1,800 picture is less dramatic. and the degree to which painful of the decade and 4.5 percent Flashpoint by far the world’s largest defense explosive devices. was the background to the meet- In the twenty years after 1990, operational experience has influ- in the second half, rising to a DEFENSE BUDGET power, and is set to remain so It has to be kept in mind that ing in Berlin. spending on defense by NATO enced them should not be underes- peak of 5.4 percent in 2010. for some time to come. Even at in both wars, Western forces had A fair amount is currently at members rose 27 percent in real, timated. They may not have ‘won’ The average in NATO Europe The full implications of its reduced level of spending of complete command of the air- stake between Washington and inflation-adjusted terms, accord- the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, was 1.9 percent in the first half of these cuts are not yet known. $645 billion in 2012, it exceeded space. In a future conflict, this Pyongyang. Only six months have 300 (290) 250 225 (160) ing to NATO figures. Of course, but they have learned a lot from the decade and 1.8 percent in the A study commissioned by Sec- the next 14 countries combined. might not be the case. Also, neither passed since North Korea’s young 100-120 90-110 80 6-8 12 nations were added to the Alli- them. As a result, the West’s armed second. Active personnel under retary of Defense Chuck Hagel Though European armed forces campaign resulted in the defeat of leader Kim Jong-un introduced ance during that time, but these forces may in future be smaller, arms remained almost unchanged concluded that the Pentagon bemoan the cuts that they have the enemy on the battlefield. martial law and threatened the US all have relatively small defense but they will still be potent. in the United States between 2000 could either reduce the size of the been forced to accept, they still Nevertheless, Western forces with a pre-emptive nuclear strike. budgets. The biggest factor in the Trends in defense spending since and 2010 but fell in NATO Europe defense establishment now and pack a punch, and three European now possess a large amount of Americans and North Koreans increase was the doubling in the the fall of the Berlin Wall have had from three million to two million. invest funds in future capabilities, countries – the United Kingdom, operational and collaborative last sat together at a negotiating Russia US France China UK Pakistan India Israel North Korea amount spent by the United States several drivers. First, there was the The third driver is the per- or maintain present capabilities at France and Germany – continue combat experience, as well as table in 2009, when Pyongyang in the decade following the 2001 post-Cold War peace dividend. formance of economies and the the expense of investment in the to be among the world’s top ten retaining powerful air forces broke off the six-party talks in preconditions. That may be con- burden in this conflict. The US is party talks could be expected in that Kim’s father and grandfather ments, maintains ties with Pyong- terrorist attacks on New York According to NATO figures, US related pressure on government future. The more likely outcome defense spenders, respectively and navies. They are still invest- Beijing over its nuclear arms pro- nected to reports that the North acting “disinterestedly” in regard the foreseeable future, the source likewise exhibited. yang through its own embassy and Washington. It is not surpris- defense spending fell 24 percent budgets as a whole. The Great was somewhere in between these third, seventh and eighth. ing in future capabilities. And gram. A dangerous silence. recently restarted its nuclear reac- to North Korea, a participant answered, “I don’t see that.” Nonetheless, Obama’s Secre- there. That gives the Germans ing that, with the war in Iraq over in real terms between 1990 and Recession that began in 2008 and options. The key question will be how initiatives now under way may In Berlin, the Americans sought tor at Yongbyon. in the Berlin meeting said. That What a contrast to the rap- tary of State John Kerry him- channels and contacts that other and foreign forces withdrawing 2000, and spending by NATO’s the debt crisis afflicting Europe However, some defense budget continuing cuts are implemented enhance cooperation among to gauge what kind of agreement China, North Korea’s sole source pointed out a “New York prochement between the US and self took part in a confidential states do not have. Also, the Ger- from Afghanistan, the figure is European members fell 10 percent since 2009 have had an important experts believe that Congress will and what this will mean for the European countries so that value would still be possible between the remaining ally, recently channel” for talks, where North Iran! Barack Obama is engaging meeting with North Koreans in mans, themselves once a divided now subsiding. in the same period. As a proportion effect on defense budgets. Accord- continue to reduce defense bud- future capabilities on both sides for money from defense budgets two states. For the time being the increased the pressure on Korean UN representatives the new Iranian President Hassan New York in March 2012. At the nation as Korea remains to this The amount spent on defense of gross domestic product (GDP), ing to the Military Balance 2013, gets in future years and that the of the Atlantic. Investments made is enhanced. Obama administration sees little its small neighbor. Senior meet with junior US dip- Rouhani with open arms and time he was still chairman of the day, seek to encourage a dialogue is just one measure: what matters American spending dropped from global defense spending fell in real resulting level of spending will in the past, when combined with While rising powers will con- reason to engage with the North politicians all the way up to investing much political capital in Senate Foreign Relations Com- there. Change through engage- is how you spend the money. In 4.4 percent in the first half of the terms by 1.5 percent in 2011 and be even lower than that currently operational experience, have pro- tinue to increase defense spending Koreans. Without clear indica- party chief Xi Jinping have Flashpoint his bid to resolve the nuclear con- mittee. The meeting was orga- ment worked for us, the Germans terms of capabilities, the change 1990s to 3.2 percent in the second two percent in 2012. contemplated. If that is the case, duced significant advances. as their economies expand, they tions that Pyongyang is willing to warned the regime to drop its KOREAN PENINsULA flict with Tehran. In mid-Octo- nized by Germany’s Friedrich reason. Why not for Korea as well? is perhaps more dramatic than is half, and NATO Europe’s from In the United States, the break- some important equipment pro- In the 1990s, the big change was will still lack the technological give up its nuclear weapons there belligerent posturing and show ber the UN Security Council’s Ebert Foundation. In the past, That’s why Berlin will continue often portrayed, and should give 2.5 percent to 2.1 percent. The down in Congressional politics grams might have to be cancelled the arrival of precision weapons, expertise and the experience poss­ are no grounds for official talks, willingness to negotiate. China lomats. Otherwise, the source six veto powers plus Germany Berlin’s Aspen Institute has also to help where it can – with the the world’s rising powers pause number of active personnel under meant that no agreement could be – but at present, this is not occur- considerably increasing the effec- essed by Western nations. In spite the White House says. also appears to be upholding said, it is the Chinese who trans- negotiated with the Iranians in brought together representatives utmost discretion. n for thought. Because of constant arms in the United States dropped reached on how to cut discretion- ring. Indeed, the United States tiveness of bombing campaigns of today’s headlines, the West’s The North Koreans brought the UN-imposed arms embargo mit messages between the US and Geneva. Toward Kim Jong-un, from the two states. involvement in operations – in the from 2.1 million in 1990 to 1.5m ary spending, and so the Budget still has a very active acquisition and missile strikes. In the fol- ability to project and use military a message from Pyongyang that on North Korea, at least in part. the North. “Our policy is not on the other hand, Obama is Why the Germans, one might This article was originally pub- Gulf, the Balkans, Iraq, Afghani- in 2000, and in NATO Europe Control Act of 2011 mandated program for new equipment and lowing decade, Western armed power will remain something to North Korea was eager to return Washington is more than will- working,” the source said. Asked keeping an icy distance and ignor- ask. One big reason is that Berlin, lished in Die Zeit on Oct. 17, stan and elsewhere – the West’s from 3.5m to 3m. across-the-board cuts: a $487bn capabilities – such as the F-35 forces have combined these tar- be reckoned with. n toSecurity_Times_quer_130x290 the six-party talks, but without 31.10.13 ing 14:57to let SeiteBeijing 1 bear the main whether a new round of six- ing the craving for recognition unlike most other Western govern- 2013.

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Promenadeplatz 2- 6 Phone +49 89.21 20 - 0 www.bayerischerhof.de 80333 Munich, Germany Fax +49 89.21 20 - 906 [email protected] 16 November 2013 17 Don’t Thewrite Security Times •off Challenges Assad The SecurityTime Times • Challenges to talk The West needs a new Syria strategy | By Michael Lüders Is Iran ready to come in from the cold?

y now it’s an old saw, – which is why its fighters, expe- regard for the loss and suffering of Shi’a Islam, which constitutes as well as around Damascus and 30,000 to 35,000 jihadists are By Matthias Nass but it still bears repeat- rienced in house-to-house fight- among the Syrian population. In about 15 percent of the popula- Homs. It has largely abandoned fighting in Syria for a clerical ing: There are no simple ing, are actively supporting the a real sense, the Syrian people’s tion and, since the 1970 seizure the northern and eastern terri- state without an “international solutions for Syria, now Assad regime’s struggle against uprising has been held hostage of power by Bashar al-Assad’s tories, although these areas con- agenda.” Moderate Islamists andB probably for years to come. the rebels. by wider interests, their revolt father Hafez, has controlled the tinue to be hit by air strikes and number another 30,000, while The fronts have become far too Of course, that is also why taken over by global politics. levers of power. To stabilize shelling. Syria’s economic hub secular or purely nationalist blurred and overlaid; too many Iran is backing Assad at all costs. This is the tragedy of Syria. their power base the Alawite Aleppo, now mostly in ruins, is a groups such as the Free Syrian actors are taking part in the The same goes for Russia and What began as a peaceful pro- elite cut a deal with Sunni trad- divided city: The rebels hold one Army muster the fewest com- country’s (self-)destruction. China, both trying to block a test, forcibly suppressed by ers and businessmen early on: half, the army the other. batants. What began in March 2011 further expansion of the Western Assad’s army and police, has Make all the money you want The deadlock in the country In brief, the civil conflict is in the wake of the Arab Spring zone of influence in the Middle become a struggle for sheer sur- so long as you accept that we has also partly resulted from dis- increasingly becoming a sectar- as a popular uprising, mostly East, especially after what they vival. For millions of people that are in charge. torted assessments of conditions ian and ethnic war – as well as within poorer sections of the witnessed in the Libyan interven- has meant migration, expulsion, In the wake of the revolt the in Syria. Many people simply a proxy theater for the rival- Sunni Muslim majority, has tion, when Washington, London suffering and death, with no end regime has reinvented itself or, say: Assad is a butcher. He has ries between Russia and the long since evolved into a civil and Paris used an explicitly lim- in sight. more precisely, learned to focus to go, so that the opposition US, respectively the West, and Iranian President war along ethnic and sectarian ited UN resolution for interven- The Assad clan belongs to the its force. Initially it attempted can start building a democratic between the Gulf States and Iran. Hassan Rouhani fault lines. This civil war has tion to overthrow the Gaddafi Alawite minority, an offshoot to take on the rebels everywhere Syria. Very early in the conflict, Ironically, yet also tellingly, the at the UN General Assembly moreover become pervaded by regime. in the country. Now it is con- almost all Western governments in New York a proxy conflict in which, in Both sides, Assad’s friends and centrating its efforts on broke off relations with Assad in September. simplified terms, two camps face foes, are ruthlessly pursuing the Alawite heartland in the mistaken assumption that each other. their own political and geo- along the Mediter- he would soon be toppled, just The Western powers, espe- strategic interests with no ranean coastline like Gaddafi. Michael Lüders cially the United States but also Syria is not Libya, however. is a political scientist the Europeans, together with For starters, the “moderate and Islamic studies scholar. Turkey and the Gulf states, seek opposition” figures so courted to topple Bashar al-Assad by Western governments rep- and his regime – not resent practically no one but because he’s a tyrant (the themselves. They have gathered private Gulf rulers are too) but into several groups, of which the because of the Tehran- best known is the Sunni-dom- Flashpoint Damascus-Hezbollah- inated “Syrian National Coun- SYRIA Shi’ite axis. The Syrian cil” based in Istanbul, which regime is Iran’s sole ally in recently also started calling itself Gulf monarchies, led by picture alliance/ZUMA Press the Arab world, its territory the “Syrian National Coalition.” Saudi Arabia, bankroll many of igh hopes accom- recent session of the UN General and bankrupt ideology. A great permitted to continue its nuclear optimism. The negotiations Obama “a tactical error,” while the pipeline for arms ship- Its leadership changes sometimes the jihadi groups. Against this panied the opening Assembly, Barack Obama and civilization had slammed shut the enrichment program. This would could be wrapped up within six in the US congressional hawks ments to Hezbollah. monthly, something that has no background the now-canceled of a new round of Rouhani made the first direct gates to the outside world and all certainly entail a Western assur- months, he said, adding: “That’s are calling for further sanctions. Assad’s foes reckon that further consequences, however, intervention in Syria would have negotiations over contact between the United but consumed itself in a spasm of ance that Iran could retain a enough time.” They would leave all existing if his regime falls, Sunnis – HIran’s nuclear program. The talks because its decisions are ignored become a preposterous under- States and Iran in more than messianic fervor and state terror. limited right to enrich uranium, There is widespread agreement sanctions in place even if Iran who account for 60 percent inside Syria. More and more taking, seeking to topple Assad between the clerical regime and three decades. While they did not There is no permanent revolu- as well as Iranian acceptance of about what a deal could look gave up its uranium enrichment of the country’s population – rebels have cut their ties with it. and help the jihadists take power the five UN veto powers plus meet in person, the two leaders tion. No nation can endure that. strict and intrusive inspections. like: Iran would enrich its ura- completely. will almost certainly take over It never had a command struc- in his wake. Germany began in mid-October spoke on the telephone. As China did, so Iran must today The third stage of what the Ira- nium to not more than 5 percent: The diehards on the Hill worry in Damascus. It’s hoped that ture over the “Free Syrian Army” Cynics openly advocate pro- in Geneva and are scheduled to Obama said goodbye in Farsi: find an exit from its self-inflicted nians consider as a six-to-twelve- enough to run a nuclear reac- that any peaceful program would they would turn to Riyadh and anyway. moting a deadlocked conflict in continue early in November. “Khodahafez,” – or: God be decline. Rouhani promised as month process would finalize the tor but insufficient for a nuclear inherently lead to a military pro- Washington for support and cut Ultimately this is where the which neither side gains an upper They will show whether Tehran with you. With these words the much to his people, and that was restrictions regime and terminate weapon. Its stocks of 20 per- gram, allowing Iran suddenly the privileged ties with Tehran. Syrian exiles have demonstrated hand, believing that this would is serious. Or, more concretely, US president wished his Iranian why they voted for him. Now, at Western sanctions. cent enriched uranium would be to break free sometime in the Hezbollah would be cut off their incapacity to act strategi- be in the best interests of the US whether Iran’s new President the second round of nuclear talks Shortly before the first Geneva handed over. The Fordo enrich- future. According to some esti- Hello again? “Assad will from its arms supplier Hassan Rouhani, can negotiate in Geneva, the Iranian side will probably stay in power for cally. They have yet to establish and Israel. These voices accept meeting, Hossein Mousavian, ment site, located deep inside a mates, with close to 20,000 cen- the time being. He might an exile government, largely rising instability in the entire a deal with the P5+1 that the Matthias Nass have to demonstrate its commit- Iran’s ambassador to Germany mountain and secured against trifuges, Iran is already able to become a sought-after ally in because they are caught within region, not least due to the influx supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali is International ment. Apparently, it has already in the nineties and a close col- military strikes, would be decom- produce enough weapons-grade the fight against al-Qaeda.” the same tribal state of mind as of millions of Syrian refugees in Khameini, will accept. Correspondent made a promising start. laborator of Rouhani, gave a missioned, as would the soon-to- uranium for a single bomb in just for the German the Assad regime. Arabs can’t neighboring countries as a neces- For decades, US-Iranian rela- weekly In Geneva, Iran’s Foreign Min- talk at the Körber Foundation be-completed heavy water reac- six weeks. work with Kurds, no Sunni sary price to pay. tions have been a narrative of Die Zeit. ister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Hamburg. It shed some addi- tor at Arak, which could also Such scenarios explain why would accept an Alawite to Instead, pragmatism is what’s missed opportunities. Sometimes set out Tehran’s proposals in tional light on what the Iranians produce plutonium. Iran would zero enrichment is also the

represent his interests and vice- needed now. The plan to destroy it was the conservatives in Wash- w. bartsch an hour-long Power Point pre- are after. submit to unrestricted monitor- demand of Israel’s Prime Min- versa, Muslim Brothers refuse Syria’s chemical arsenal under ington who did the stonewalling, sentation entitled “Closing an If all goes well, the two sides ing of all its nuclear facilities by ister Binyamin Netanyahu. He to work with women or leftists UN monitoring, drawn up other times it was the hardlin- Flashpoint Unnecessary Crisis, Opening could agree on four principles the IAEA. But the country could has matched Rouhani’s charm and vice-versa. Add denial and almost incidentally, was a first ers in Tehran. This time the IRAN New Horizons.” He gave his pre- in Geneva, Mousavian said. The produce nuclear energy and the offensive with a hardline media an inability to self-criticize to the step. outlook seems brighter. sentation in English. The ensuing Iranian side would have to make sanctions would be dismantled blitz of his own. mix. At the urging of their bene- It is worth noting that some For weeks Rouhani had com- counterpart a good discussions, described by a senior two pledges. First, Tehran would step by step. However, complete disarma- factors in the West and the Gulf of these weapons have been municated that he was prepared flight back to Tehran from US official as “intense, detailed, agree to full transparency, i.e. The question is of course: Can ment and total demolition is not states, the Syrian exiles tend to stored in areas now controlled to resolve the long-standing New York’s Kennedy Airport, straightforward and candid,” allowing the Vienna-based Inter- Iran, can the West overcome a realistic outcome. Iran would put forward maximal demands, by rebels. One might question concerns about Iran’s nuclear where Rouhani was headed when were also – an absolute novelty national Atomic Energy Agency habitual distrust to close the deal? have to accept invasive moni- i.e. no negotiations with Assad. the assertion that they did not ambitions. And so far, Ayatollah Obama called. – conducted in English. (IAEA) to make unannounced Ever since the US embassy in toring and complete transpar- Put simply, the West has bet have the technical resources to Khamenei is backing his pres- God be with you? What’s There was no breakthrough monitoring checks on all Iran’s Tehran was seized for 444 days in ency. If the Iranians don’t follow on the wrong horse. The Rus- mount the poison gas attack in ident. He has even instructed gotten into the “Great Satan” in Geneva, but the mood on nuclear facilities. Second, Tehran 1979, the US and Iran have been through, there will be no deal sians, Chinese and Iranians knew a Damascus suburb in August the Revolutionary Guards, who America? In fact, a great deal is in both sides was surprisingly buoy- would commit itself to enacting locked in a relentless confronta- and the crippling sanctions will from the start what they wanted. that killed hundreds of civilians. set much of the foreign policy flux these days. Suddenly, time- ant. Catherine Ashton, the EU confidence-building measures that tion, vilifying each other as the remain in place. In Washington and elsewhere, There must be a follow-up. agenda under Rouhani’s prede- honored prejudices and world- foreign policy chief who chairs would hinder Iran from using its “Great Satan” or a “rogue state.” A less belligerent relationship meanwhile, we see hesitation The peace conference planned cessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, views no longer ring true. The the six-nation group, called the nuclear program to build bombs. Now for the first time in 34 years, between Tehran and Washing- and an endless stream of second for November in Geneva must to stay out of politics. phone call between Obama and talks “substantive and forward- That would lay to rest the fears detente between them seems no ton, bolstered by a resolution of thoughts. For good reason, one bring together the government Tehran’s change of tack is down Rouhani lasted only 15 minutes, looking,” Zarif said the meetings of Western governments that the longer unimaginable – provided the toxic and seemingly intracta- might add, as radical jihad- and those rebels willing to nego- to more than the new president’s but those minutes ended 34 years had been “fruitful.” Of course, civilian nuclear program might that cool heads prevail. ble nuclear question, could trans- ists long ago began setting the tiate – without regard for the wisdom. Iran is suffering under a of official silence between Tehran none of this means that getting serve as a platform for producing “The real question is whether form the Middle East. Rouhani’s agenda within the rebel camp. If sensibilities of Syrian exiles. US regime of punitive international and Washington. a deal will be easy. nuclear weapons. hardliners in both Tehran and position would also be buttressed we believe the intelligence report Secretary of State John Kerry has sanctions imposed specifically Is this another Nixon-in-China The details of the Iranian three- In return, the P5+1 would have Washington sabotage whatever if a deal could be reached. Then, by military analysts IHS Jane’s stressed that President Assad has in response to the government’s moment? A diplomatic break- part plan have only sketchily to acknowledge Iran’s fundamen- comes out of this effort to resolve after the eight dismal years under published on Sept. 14, the Syrian no place in a transitional govern- intransigence on the nuclear issue. through of the magnitude of the seeped into the public domain. tal right to enrich uranium and the nuclear issue and improve Ahmadinejad, a cautious liber- rebels number about 100,000 ment. Given the recent successes The already fragile economy con- then US president’s visit with In the first stage, so it seems, use nuclear energy peacefully. As US-Iran relations,” as Ryan alization within Iran could also fighters, divided into about a of Assad’s forces on the ground, tracted 6 percent last year. Oil Mao Zedong in 1972? Iran and the six powers would a signatory of the Nuclear non- Crocker, a veteran of US diplo- become possible. That, too, is at thousand groups, splinter groups he certainly has no reason to production fell by more than half The Iranians want to emerge outline the contours of a confi- Proliferation Treaty, Iran enjoys macy in the Middle East, put it stake in Geneva. and gangs. bow to Washington’s wishful within a year. The inflation rate from their isolation. On this dence-building process, with Iran this right in any case. Finally, in Time Magazine. Securing a deal is tough enough Definitely the strongest, the thinking. Assad will probably hovers at about 60 percent; unem- point there really are parallels constraining part of its nuclear the world powers would declare Hardliners on both sides are as it is. It would be foolhardy to report says, are the jihadists. stay in power for the time being. ployment at 30 percent. Iran’s cur- between Beijing in 1972 and program, the US and the EU readiness to lift the sanctions. already up in arms. In Tehran, needlessly complicate an already Some 10,000 are allied with al- He may soon become a sought- rency, the rial, has lost over half its Tehran in 2013. After the mael- reining in their sanctions regime. Once unity is reached on these the commander of the Revolu- complicated situation by impos- Qaeda, namely the Nusra Front after ally in the fight against value in the past 20 months. strom of the Cultural Revolu- In the second stage, the “end four principles, the details could tionary Guards, Mohammad ing even harsher sanctions on and the “Islamic State of Iraq al-Qaeda, especially along the In the White House too, the tion China was isolated interna- state” would have to be defined – be worked out, Mousavian said. Ali Jafari, called the phone con- Iran. Europe must try to prevent and the Levant” (ISIL). Another Turkish border. n mood has changed. During the tionally, with a ruined economy the extent to which Iran would be Echoing Rouhani, he expressed versation between Rouhani and this. n AFP/Getty Images

hat will become of NATO environment is characterized by three The US pivot to the Asia-Pacific region, only wanting to discuss issues of imme- ary forces for contingencies beyond the legitimacy of a mission. It is therefore question remains unanswered. In 2010 after Afghanistan? Will an major transformations, each of which in turn, diminishes Europe’s role in the diate military relevance runs the risk of NATO’s borders. This follows from the essential that NATO’s cooperation with allies agreed on a Strategic Concept that alliance without a major An active Alliance will confront NATO with new chal- US security calculus. At the same time, it being overwhelmed by the multitude of nature of globalized challenges, which Michael Rühle partners, which used to be catalyzed by offers a cogent description of a modern ongoing military opera- lenges: the globalization of security risks, begs the question as to a common trans- globalisation’s challenges. need to be addressed at their source. It is Head of the the Afghanistan deployment, will remain alliance ready and able to cope with glo- tionW lose its relevance? Will operational the US pivot to the Asia-Pacific region, Policy Planning and atlantic approach vis-à-vis a region that To mention but one example: An alli- also follows from the need to be able to Speechwriting Section for vibrant even after 2014. balization’s challenges. Yet the financial fatigue lead Allies to lower their military and the financial crisis. Europeans thus far have been reluctant to ance that discusses the implications of a act together with the US. For NATO to NATO's Political Affairs and At the same time, NATO must deepen squeeze, as well as a certain amount ambitions? in a globalised world The globalization of security risks view as being more than just an economic nuclear armed Iran only once concerned succumb to the temptation of “coming Security Policy Division. its cooperation with other international of Afghanistan fatigue, are powerful Such are the questions that domi- mani­fests itself in failing states, the pro- opportunity. Finally, the financial crisis Middle Eastern partner countries put it home,” i.e. to re-focus on territorial institutions and NGOs, as such coop- countervailing forces that might lead nate the current debate about NATO’s The Afghanistan mission is not NATO’s liferation of weapons of mass destruc- will curtail Western defense budgets on the agenda, has not yet truly arrived defense, would be a strategic regression, private eration will be the key to making a some allies to opt for a more modest, future. Yet these are moot questions. tion, new energy vulnerabilities, and for the foreseeable future, thus further in the 21st century. At the same time, as it would decouple NATO from the “Comprehensive Approach” to crisis eurocentric NATO. True, NATO’s leadership of ISAF (Inter- swan song, it testifies to the alliance’s political the rapidly growing number of cyber complicating collective Allied responses NATO must continue to enable the for- security agenda of the United States. Flashpoint management work. NATO must also So when NATO’s Heads of State and national Security Assistance Force) attacks. All these risks do not corre- to new challenges. mation of flexible coalitions within the A reorientation of NATO away from AFGHANISTAN enhance its ties with the scientific com- Government meet in 2014 in the United defined the organization in many ways: cohesion and military stamina spond to traditional military patterns, All these developments run counter to alliance, albeit supported by the NATO its expeditionary character would munity in order to understand the secu- Kingdom for their next summit, they it shaped NATO’s political and military but they will be serious enough to keep NATO’s traditional political and military command structure. This will ensure that send a signal to Washington not to On the institutional level, rity implications of climate change or would do well to reaffirm their commit- outlook as well as its relations with By Michael Rühle national security establishments fully mechanisms. The challenge, then, is to a group of likeminded allies (and partner count on European support in non- NATO must continue to deepen its part- the global competition for energy and ment to modernize the alliance along the other countries and institutions. More- mobilized. adapt NATO so as to avoid the loss of nations) will act even if other allies do European crises. This could herald the nership network with partner countries, other resources. The same holds true for lines envisaged by the Strategic Concept. over, NATO will not escape a debate tance over such a long period of time. The end of ISAF is simply the end of These risks challenge Alliance solidar- relevance that failure to tackle these devel- not, as was the case in the 2011 Libya de facto, if not de jure, end of NATO. including with those from the Asia- partnerships with the private sector: the Such a reaffirmation would be a fit- over whether the mission was ultimately And only NATO could have brought so one unique chapter in NATO’s evo- ity, since they may not affect all Allies opments effectively will inevitably cause. operation. Since many new challenges The need to act alongside the US also Pacific region. A NATO-led operation latter’s expertise on cyber defense and ting complement to the end of ISAF, “worth it.” many partner countries into this common lution. Another chapter has already in the same way. And they challenge This adaptation must proceed on three will not affect allies in quite the same requires enhancing NATO’s exercises without the involvement of partner coun- energy security, for example, may turn as it would demonstrate that even after Yet NATO can face this debate with endeavor. Hence, far from being NATO’s started, quite different from the previ- NATO’s importance among the family levels: political, military and institutional. way, flexible coalitions are the appropri- regime in order to ensure the contin- tries has become almost inconceivable. out to be crucial for NATO’s own efforts Afghanistan NATO will remain an active confidence. No other organization swan song, the Afghanistan mission tes- ous one but hardly less difficult to write: of global institutions, since military On the political level NATO must deal ate means to prevent paralysis. ued interoperability of allied forces in Partners not only provide all kinds of in this area. alliance in a globalized world – and worldwide could have sustained such tifies to NATO’s political cohesion and enabling NATO to respond to the post- responses will not always be appropri- more systematically with longer-term On the military level, the Alliance a period without major operational military support, which is crucial in times Will the allies be ready to meet the project stability even if it is not always a complex mission at such great dis- military stamina. Afghanistan strategic environment. This ate or the first line of defense. security developments. The reflex of must remain focused on expedition- commitments. of budgetary austerity, but also enhance challenge of reform? Up to now, this projecting force. n 18 November 2013 November 2013 The Security Times • Challenges It’s the energy At home at all economy, stupid! frequencies – The shale gas story is all about competitive advantage worldwide. and strategic gains | By Kirsten Westphal Four fi elds of business, one thought – make tomorrow‘s e have never seen to calm the domestic situation it does not automatically follow communications engineering faster, more powerful energy markets and to diversify the economy, that the US shale boom will result and more fail-safe. like this before. but these policies bloat state in more liquidity or more diversi- That‘s why our products have been found for nearly Three dominant budgets. fied supply. In fact, the shale rev- structuralW trends have been 80 years wherever radio signals are. Here are some In future, moreover, rising olution may increase instability observed since the turn of the domestic energy demand will in the neighbourhood as pressure current examples: century: first, the steep demand lead the Arab world to con- mounts on the ruling elites of increase in Asia, second, the still sume a large proportion of its energy supplying nations. Europe ❙ Wireless communications: development and widely neglected fast growing own energy, putting ever-higher must prepare for a regional con- Pacific hegemon domestic hunger for energy in the traction of its energy trade as production T&M equipment for every second Middle East and North Africa, well as for possible quantitative mobile phone in the world and finally, the fracking revolu- Kirsten Westphal shortages. China continues to expand its military capacity is senior energy ❙ Analog and digital TV: transmitters for more tion making the US the world’s analyst at the As long as the three-way divi- and operational range in disputed waters largest producer of gas and oil. German Institute sion of international gas market than 80 countries The widening resource basis for International persists, with its accompany- and Security Affairs ❙ Air traffi c control and secure communications: By Isabel Hilton is a global phenomenon: larger (SWP) in Berlin. ing price differentials, a scaled shale resources in China and up “Atlantic Gas Corridor” is radio equipment for more than 200 airports; Argentina, Eastern Mediterra- swp unlikely to materialize. Even radios and encryption solutions for armed forces nean offshore and East African though the gas price in continen- and authorities around the world gas discoveries, deep water Flashpoint tal Europe is three times higher and Arctic hydrocarbons. OIL & GAS than in the US, the real demand ❙ Regulation: instruments and systems for Whether these resources are is in the Pacific market where radiomonitoring for about 150 countries being tapped and extracted financial pressure on risk premiums result in a 45 to depends on the combination states in the region. It is not 60 percent higher average LNG To remain a leader in all of these sectors, we are close of price developments, demand only the resource rent strategies price than in the EU. trends and technological prog- that are being called into ques- For Europe, Russia, the Cas- to important markets and customers – with sites in ress. tion, but the very politics of pian Basin, the Mediterranean more than 70 countries, and development centers Producers and consumers face generating affluence and secur- and West Africa will be the enormous uncertainties about ing power. primary regions to focus on. in the USA, Asia and Europe. We are number one in what the future global energy The political upheavals in the This is both a foreign policy but terrestrial TV transmitters and in EMC test equipment. map is going to look like. While Arab world illustrate the geopo- also an energy policy challenge. major European consumers as litical risks to which the global Connecting energy producers to well as China and India have to oil and gas sector is exposed, as Europe, open and functioning www.rohde-schwarz.com/ad/cor2 prepare for increasing import the region remains the backbone energy corridors with Turkey dependency, the United States is of the global energy supply. and Ukraine, enhancing energy bucking the global energy trend, The perception of a relaxed cooperation and integrating * Photo: Network operators use our test and measurement equipment to test transmission quality in their wireless communications networks. with the prospect of becoming hydrocarbons future is overhasty. markets are immediate strategic largely independent of fossil fuel If global demand continues as imperatives. imports. it is forecasted, it will have to In the past Europe benefited America might even become be largely met by nonconven- from US guarantees of safe sea an energy exporter, cutting into tional resources and from the Gulf lanes and from initiatives to link traditional suppliers’ market region. Energy markets tend to be the landlocked Caspian hydro- shares. It will profit from com- cyclical and volatile in general, carbons to world markets. In paratively lower gas prices in which means stress to the energy the future Europe will have to the years to come, which will world. The OPEC members Saudi fend for itself. Increasingly it is give a remarkable advantage in Arabia, Iran and Iraq will have already competing directly with terms of international economic to seek a sensible balance of China in the Caspian and Cen- competitiveness. interests. That adds tinder to an tral Asian regions, as well as in This will shape US foreign already incendiary regional situa- Russia. Its relative market share and security policy, providing tion. How will both Saudi Arabia is going to decrease. This will Washington with a wider range and Iran align to China, already jeopardize its supply security. of policy options as depen- their number one customer? That makes it all the more nec- dency on Organization of the Russia, formerly an indispens- essary that the EU bundles its Petroleum Exporting Countries able energy power, faces margin- forces in the global market and (OPEC) diminishes. However, alization and degradation into a transforms its energy system. it is hard to imagine the United swing supplier. This could rein- In this situation, getting energy States ditching the Carter Doc- force its decline to mere regional policies right is key. Shale gives The Liaoning aircraft carrier trine (stating that the US will power status. The Russian oil is a clear signal of China’s us more time to transform our intentions in the Asia-Pacific. use military force to defend its and gas companies are speeding energy system, but does not obvi- national interests in the region) up their diversification, particu- ate the need to do so. Fossil fuels picture alliance/dpa and withdrawing from the Per- larly by aquiring market shares yield short-term cost advantages n September 2013, nearly in advanced short- and medium- that it does not seek hegemony, as Huangyan Island, where China threaten to ram, rival vessels. If China has since regularly sent sian Gulf and watching arms in China and the Asia-Pacific but obstruct strategic decisions a year after it was formally range conventional ballistic mis- China continues to expand its and the Philippines had been in the other party fails to react, it maritime law enforcement ships akimbo as other powers fill the region. Russian liquified natural for a more sustainable energy commissioned into the Chi- siles, land-attack and anti-ship military capacity and the range direct confrontation. When the risks losing territory; if it retali- and aircraft to patrol within 12 vacuum in this strategic world gas (LNG) is only one source future. At the same time, energy nese navy, the refurbished cruise missiles, counter-space of its operations. US brokered an agreement for ates with force, China could feel miles of the islands. Although a region. But an end to import in the Pacific, competing with efficiency and renewables are ISoviet-era carrier that the Chinese weapons, and military cyberspace When, in December 2012, both sides’ ships to leave in 2012, entitled to respond, claiming the less complex dispute than those dependency will make it more Australian, Qatari and US LNG important to hedge against had re-named the Liaoning com- capabilities designed to enable China attached to its passports China stayed and has since denied right of defense against aggres- of the South China Sea, China’s difficult for Washington to main- in the future. resource conflicts and to provide pleted a sea trial that included area-denial, according to the US a map that claimed almost all access to the Philippines, claiming sion. confrontation with Japan is more tain US public support for its role Changing market power has greater energy security. testing the capacity of its pilots annual report to Congress on Chi- of the South China Sea (along that its sovereignty over Scarbor- In October this year, President sensitive, given the role that Japan as global policeman. geopolitical repercussions. This The trilemma of securing and planes to take off from, and na’s military. It has also improved with the Indian state of Arunachal ough Shoal is undisputed. Xi Jinping, taking advantage of plays in China’s nationalist nar- Developments in the energy is equally true for Europe. It has energy supply, protecting the land on, what is China’s first and nuclear deterrence and long-range Pradesh) as Chinese territory, With few naval assets of its US President Barack Obama’s rative, which makes Chinese con- world are amplifying geopoliti- profited from gas price pressure climate and alleviating energy only aircraft carrier. The trials conventional strike capabilities; China’s neighbors were in the own, the Philippines is pursuing absence from the ASEAN summit, cessions politically unthinkable. cal processes that are already on its traditional suppliers, but poverty will not be solved by were pronounced a success, a advanced fighter aircraft; limited awkward position of accepting a legal case against China under signaled his expectation that trade China is concerned about Japan’s under way. Obama’s the shale revolution. signal no doubt of China’s inten- regional power projection and the passports, which might imply the UN Convention of the Law between China and ASEAN increasing military budgets and Asian Pivot has gained Shale oil, however, tion to enlarge its embryonic car- undersea warfare. acceptance of the claim, or refus- of the Sea (1994), which both would reach $1 trillion by 2020. the possibility that Prime Minis- political and economic German does not benefit climate rier fleet. Preparing to retake Taiwan ing them and risking economic That prospect gives China more ter Abe might succeed in revising momentum from the security. While the US The Liaoning, as Chinese media is still the headline objective of and political retaliation. It was than enough clout to intimidate Japan's pacifist constitution. The shale revolution, as fracking debate shale boom has served readily admitted, is approximately this investment, though China's a move characteristic of China’s Isabel Hilton is a smaller neighbors over territorial US has a more direct involvement energy trade diverts domestically to replace three decades behind the latest capacity to launch an amphibi- approach to the mosaic of com- London based writer claims. President Xi told the Indo- through its base on Okinawa, from the Atlantic Basin Almost one in two Germans considers climate-damaging coal US carrier, the nuclear-powered ous assault on the scale required peting claims over the rich oil, gas and broadcaster. to the Pacific and sea She is founder nesian parliament in the course close to the disputed islands, and fracking an option to extract gas in Ger- with gas, internationally USS Gerald R. Ford, launched remains distant, and China and fishing resources of the South and editor of of his trip: “We should aban- China has repeatedly urged the lanes such as the Strait many, according to a survey by polling coal is king. in October 2013 and slated to remains politically commit- China Sea. www.chinadialogue.net. don the cold war mentality, and US not to “encourage” Japan’s of Hormuz and the institute forsa. But 90 percent of support- The energy world is be the most advanced vessel in ted to a peaceful reunification. The Spratly Islands are scattered cooperate to build security and claims. Strait of Malacca gain ers believe it should only be allowed under becoming more frag- the US Navy. Despite boasting China’s more immediate military over roughly 160,000 square bbc jointly safeguard regional peace Other than China’s immediate increased importance extremely strict environmental constraints. mented. Multilateral ini- the largest naval force in Asia, interests include counter-piracy, miles of the coastal waters of the and stability.” territorial disputes, Chinese secu- for Japan and South Reducing energy costs for businesses was tiatives to shape energy China’s naval capacity remains peacekeeping, disaster relief, and Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Flashpoint The message was received with rity concerns have grown along Korea. They are both the most important argument for most of relations are hampered underpowered in comparison to regional military operations, of Vietnam, Taiwan and China, China nervous skepticism by some of with China’s lengthening supply close partners of the US, those in favor. by widely divergent both the US and Japan. As of which the territorial disputes in all of whom claim part of the China’s regional neighbors, sen- lines and its growing investment but they are also vital to Unsurprisingly, German industry also interests. So what needs the end of 2012, according to the South and East China seas are islands and exercise effective parties have signed. But sitive not only to the behavior in fixed assets beyond sovereign China’s energy supply. finds this argument convincing. Chemicals to be done? US estimates, the Chinese navy the most prominent. control over several. The Paracel in another move that provoked of China’s naval patrols, but to territory. In energy supplies alone, The fear of a block- major BASF is building a new ammoniac Internationally, trust comprised around 79 principal Here, despite its nominally Islands are effectively under Chi- protests from both Vietnam and such reported remarks as those of China is dependent not only on ade of these vital sea- plant in the USA because the energy prices in markets and free surface warships, more than 55 superior strength, the United nese control. the Philippines in 2012, the Chi- PLA Major General Luo Yuan’s free passage of shipping through ways runs deep in all there are lower than in Germany. But CEO trade must be strength- submarines, 55 medium and large States has proved powerless to China’s naval behavior in the nese government declared that the suggestion that the Diaoyu (Sen- the Malacca Straits, but also on three. The pivot could Kurt Bock also wants to exploit Germany’s ened. The US has to amphibious ships, and roughly 85 counter Chinese territorial creep. region has grown steadily more recently founded town of Sansha, kaku) Islands should be declared pipelines such as the Shwe oil be seen as constraining shale reserves. Speaking to the International ensure confidence, as it missile-equipped small ships. In 2006, the then US secretary assertive in the last three years, on Woody Island in the Para- a Chinese military target range, and gas pipeline through Myan- and countering China’s Club of Frankfurt Economic Journalists, is in the strategic posi- If the US fulfills its announced of State Hillary Clinton declared not through the deployment of cels, was henceforth a prefectural or that of Rear Admiral Zhang mar, which runs through troubled rise, but also as a logical Bock called for test drilling to begin in tion to make or break intention to deploy 60 percent that the free passage of shipping major naval firepower, but using level city that would adminis- Zhaozhong, who called for a Kachin territory and is potentially response to shifting trade Germany, saying this was the only way to a global LNG market of its naval power in the Pacific in the South China Sea was a US a large fleet of smaller coastguard ter the “Chinese” territories of blockade of Philippine outposts in vulnerable to Myanmar’s volatile flows. Russia is enhanc- show that fracking is safe and sustainable. by approving hydrocar- by 2020, China would be heav- vital national interest, but the US vessels, marine patrol boats and the Spratlys, the Paracels, and the Spratly Islands. Neither view domestic politics. ing its military activities “We would like to prove that,” Bock said. bon exports. The new ily outgunned. But the interest Mutual Defense Treaties in the even fishing boats, that maintain Macclesfield Bank, or, as China represents government policy, but Further afield, China remains in the region, too and is Cross party opposition in the Bundestag times call for greater that the progress of the Liaon- Asia-Pacific do not commit the a constant and creeping pressure names them, the Nansha, Xisha, such remarks serve to darken the dependent on the US security also eagerly watching its defeated a proposed law regulating the dialogue between pro- ing aroused in China’s neighbors US to get involved in territorial on rival claimants’ naval patrols, and Zhongsha islands and their mood music and do little to reas- umbrella, for instance in the Arctic backyard. extraction of shale gas this summer. Ger- ducers and consumers derives not from any claim, or disputes in which it has no claim. fishing fleets and other civilian surrounding waters. The move sure rival claimants. Middle East, the source of 40 per- The shale revolution many’s scientific community is also skepti- and for a new integrated intention, to match US firepower, China’s signals meanwhile, vessels. It is a strategy that has creates the appearance of Chinese A different, but equally trou- cent of China’s oil and a region in has hit the Arab world cal about fracking. The Hamburg Global concept of energy and but from concerns about the are characteristically ambigu- allowed China to avoid direct legal jurisdiction and serves to bling dynamic operates in the East which it has virtually no strategic at a politically highly Economic Institute (HWWI) warned against climate security. Col- creeping success of China’s low ous: whilst warning the United military confrontation, while probe international reaction to China Sea, where China continues reach. As long as this remains the precarious juncture. environmental damage and groundwater lective approaches to key aggression in the disputed States not to interfere, China has gaining territory through a series its territorial expansion. to react strongly to the Japanese case, China is highly unlikely to Population growth and pollution. “As a country with a high-density maritime safety could waters of the South and East also said that it intends to join of soft confrontations. China’s supporting tactics care- government’s purchase of three seek an active military confronta- unemployment have population, Germany should not take a help to reduce the risk China Seas. the 22-nation Rim of the Pacific In one such case, Beijing has fully avoid crossing any military of the five islets in the Senkaku tion. So far, given the success of fuelled protest. leading role in fracking,” said institute direc- of geopolitical fric- In addition to the Liaoning, naval drill, led by US Forces, in gained effective control of Scar- threshold, using superior numbers (Diaoyu) group from private Jap- its asymmetrical approach, it has Energy price subsi- tor Michael Bräuninger. n tion caused by energy China has boosted investment 2014. While reassuring the world borough Shoal, known to China of small ships to obstruct, or to anese owners in September 2012. not needed to. n dies have been one way resource rivalry. n

M_Image_Radio_Tower_143x530_e.indd 1 23.01.13 17:16 November 2013 Section C 21

The uses of intelligence Has the expansion of America’s surveillance technologies outstripped common sense? | By David E. Sanger Cyber Security

tep inside the giant glass cube he was asked whether American intel- sador and three CIA employees left a lot American intelligence agencies, even if went beyond legal boundaries. Their that is the headquarters of the ligence agencies routinely gather data of scar tissue on administration officials. that cooperation is forced by secret court request was denied – until the Snowden National Security Agency deep on Americans. He said no, before the But based on conversations inside the orders, is undercutting their business revelations forced the government to inside Fort Meade, halfway Snowden documents proved him wrong. intelligence agencies, with members of around the world. It’s easy for France, or publish some previously-secret rulings of Sbetween Washington and Baltimore, and (Clapper has apologized for giving what Congress, and with recently departed China, or others to block business with Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court. it does not take long before the leaders of he called “the least untruthful” answer to administration officials, a few early con- any American firm suspected, rightly or Why couldn’t they have published those what was once the most secretive intel- that question; it seems clear that, at best, clusions seem clear: not, of providing data or “back doors” rulings earlier? “We probably should ligence agency in America start talking he was deliberately misleading.) • Like other intelligence agencies, to American intelligence agencies. “We have,” one senior intelligence official about the damage done by Edward J. The Snowden revelations are unlikely the NSA is going to be forced to think have to think about how these pro- said recently. “But it was never even Snowden. to let up: He copied 50,000 or more about the diplomatic consequences of grams hurt American competitiveness,” discussed.” “Tremendous harm, and ongoing,” documents, and more leak out every its operations. one adviser to the administration said • The revelations about surveillance argues General Keith B. Alexander, few weeks. The most recent revelations At the CIA, covert operations are recently. “That’s a question no one has will make it harder to get international during a recent discussion inside his about how the NSA swept up millions reviewed annually. During that review, seriously asked before.” cooperation in stopping cyber attacks. office on the agency’s top floor, over- of records of French phone calls and text one standard question is “If this opera- • Many of the programs that the NSA In their more candid moments, senior looking a campus of domed antennas, messages, and how it tapped into the tion became public tomorrow, what has insisted on keeping secret might actu- American intelligence officials concede which have sprouted with the expan- Mexican leadership, or the cellphone of would the diplomatic consequences be?” ally be accepted – and understood – if the they will soon have to make a choice: sion of the NSA’s mission over the past German Chancellor Angela Merkel are Yet astoundingly, the NSA’s programs instinct to keep secrets was tempered by Is it more important to get a broad decades. For all its focus on maintain- only the latest in the steady trickle. Each do not appear to be subject to the same a requirement to make far more public. number of countries to join in monitor- ing secrecy about how it cracks codes major breach forces President Obama to kind of regular scrutiny. Until Snowden, This thought is anathema to America’s ing global computer networks for cyber and – more recently – develops and call his counterparts with a half-apology, its operations were rarely revealed to top intelligence officials, who say their attacks than it is to collect information deploys a new generation of cyberweap- and a promise to re-evaluate. (In the case the public. And it’s old, traditional role, success is closely linked to the secrecy on phone calls, emails and web traffic in ons, General Alexander and his aides of France, the country’s outrage was the breaking of foreign codes, was not of their operations. In some programs those same countries? That is the choice have told Congress in recent months tempered a bit by the fact that French as sensitive. that is clearly the case: While it is no President Obama will have to make. they never sufficiently appreciated the intelligence services are not shy about But that has all changed – faster than secret that the intelligence agencies work The simple fact is that the same tech- damage that could be wrought by an collecting on the US.) the agency’s top officials want to admit. hard to listen into every critical conver- nologies used to monitor the huge flow insider who violated his oaths to protect And soon, the rethinking of the NSA’s The revelation that the agency was sation in Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan of data around the world – so that the the nation’s secrets and purposely under- role is bound to accelerate. General searching the metadata of millions of and China, to name just a few targets, US and its allies can protect against took to expose the agency’s operations. Alexander has said he will retire early in French telephone calls over the course the revelation of how they do so only intellectual property theft or destructive, Yet General Alexander’s view is at 2014. When President Obama nominates of just a few months last year, created a empower their adversaries to come up Stuxnet-like viruses – also enable the US sharp odds with the views of the 55 his successor, the confirmation process in breach with the country that has emerged with new strategies to evade detection. to conduct extraordinary surveillance. percent of Americans who told the Quin- the Senate will become the centerpiece of as America’s most active ally in deal- But there is a rising sense in Washing- Look at one of the array of NSA nipiac poll over the summer they view the arguments over whether the astound- ing with the rise of extremism in Syria, ton that the NSA took its instinct for programs to tap into the main cables Snowden as more akin to a whistle- ing expansion of America’s surveillance Libya and Mali. Were the intelligence secrecy to a harmful extreme. Suppose, blower than a traitor. When pressed, technologies has outpaced common gains from monitoring French telephone for example, that the agency had publicly David E. Sanger is people who take that view often add sense. That is, essentially, the question data, and listening into some calls, worth announced five years ago that it was the chief Washington that they do not doubt he did damage to the President has charged a small group the risk to that diplomatic partnership? beginning to collect a vast database of correspondent of American diplomacy, and to the NSA’s of outside advisers to investigate. And Probably not, but it is not an issue that information about phone calls made in The New York Times and the author of ability to track terrorists. But even those while the group will not report back the NSA, or the US Administration, the US – the same information telephone “Confront and Conceal: who dispute the poll’s findings concede formally until the end of the year, the seemed to consider prior to the Snowden companies hold for billing purposes – Obama’s Secret Wars that Snowden tapped into an abiding betting of insiders is that the NSA will revelations. and would use it only to trace commu- and Surprising Use of national suspicion that the expansion not like all of the answers. The NSA will resist having its reach nications with terror suspects? American Power.’’ private in the NSA’s powers has come without “What Obama wants to know is the limited by diplomatic considerations; And supposing they had argued that debating the proper limits of govern- answer to the question: ‘Just because we after all, its view is that the more infor- such a database would have enabled ment surveillance over the past dozen them “to detect, and maybe stop, one that come into the United States, bear- years since Sep. 11. And even President of the 9/11 hijackers,” as the former ing much of the world’s internet traffic. Obama – reluctantly – has said that it The Snowden disclosures secretary of homeland security, Michael One of the best ways to stop Stuxnet-like is “an important discussion to have,” Chertoff, recently argued at a Harvard viruses is to detect them flowing into one though one he clearly did not volunteer have sewn so much distrust forum in Washington. If the oversight for of those entry points in the United States. to begin himself. the program seemed sufficient, it’s likely But that is also the best way to monitor Perhaps the biggest surprise is that that they threaten to undermine most Americans would have accepted the email or phone call data. the debate has been fueled by some of government collection of that data as a If the US wants France or Israel or those who enabled the NSA to expand President Obama’s cyber necessary, if intrusive, defense against Turkey to join cyber-protection partner- its operations. One of General Alexan- attacks. ships, it must assure them that the same der’s biggest challengers these days is a protection agenda. Would disclosure have helped future technology will not be turned against conservative Republican who was one of terrorists? Probably not. It’s hard to them. Right now, the Snowden disclo- the authors of the Patriot Act, Congress- can do it, should we?’” said one official mation, the better the chance of picking completely evade using phones, emails sures have sewn so much distrust that man James Sensenbrenner. “We need to familiar with the President’s instructions up future terror or cyber attacks. “Ter- and Skype. And if they have been to the they threaten to undermine President change the law and we need to change to the group. “That’s a very different rorism and cyber are the two biggest movies in recent years, they probably Obama’s cyber protection agenda. the law quickly,” Sensenbrenner said in question than ‘Is it legal?’” threats we face,” General Alexander think the United States has far greater, All this suggests that the Snowden affair October, declaring it was time to put Experience suggests that President said in October. But conducting sur- speedier powers to listen into conversa- is hardly over. Its repercussions will be felt a stop to the NSA’s bulk collection of Obama will be reluctant to order major veillance programs are not cost-free, tions or search emails than it really does. for years. But while General Alexander “metadata” – the giant haystack of infor- changes; as General Alexander often as President Obama learned when the Yet by keeping the programs secret, insists the problem is the disclosures them- mation about telephone calls, text mes- notes, “it isn’t an accident” that only a president of Brazil cancelled her state the NSA found itself on the defensive as selves, his critics argue that the problem sages and some computer traffic that has handful of Americans have been killed visit to the US out of pique over the soon as the Snowden revelations began. is the underlying programs. Over the become the NSA’s most critical database. by foreign terrorists since the Sep. 11 revelations of American interception of Its officials tried to justify surveillance past decade, America’s sheer technological A vote to stop funding on that program attacks. No American president, Demo- conversations conducted by Brazilian programs that just months ago they capacity to find needles in digital hay- nearly passed the House of Representa- crat or Republican, wants to dismantle government officials and executives of denied existed. They had little credibility. stacks has improved exponentially. But tives this summer. Sensenbrenner has intelligence-gathering programs and state-run companies. Some members of Congress attempted the debate over how to use those powers is also suggested that General James Clap- then be blamed if another major attack The effects go beyond diplomacy. to force those revelations. Senators Mark only beginning. And that debate is a global per, the director of national intelligence, occurs. The failure to detect or effectively Executives of Google, Microsoft, AT&T Udall and Ron Wyden, both Demo- one; it can no longer be conducted among should be fired, or perhaps prosecuted, respond to the attacks in Benghazi in and Verizon, among others, all say that crats, sought permission to talk openly a small group of intelligence professionals for publicly misleading Congress when 2012 that killed the American ambas- the disclosure of their cooperation with about NSA programs that they feared and their lawyers. n 22 November 2013 November 2013 23

The Security Times • Cyber The Security Times • Cyber It may be cyber but it’s not war Applying the military mindset to the fifth domain is counterproductive | By Thomas Rid

yber war is coming!” war on drugs) – then cyber war Arab protesters all the way to Talk of cyberwar kills nuance. proclaimed the RAND has never happened in the past, militants and insurgents. Twitter Intelligence agencies have begun Corporation in an cyber war is not taking place at and Facebook have made organiz- taking “cyber” seriously. By influential paper in present, and all-out cyber war ing non-violent protest easier than doing so, signals intelligence as

C1993, exactly two decades ago. ges/ seems unlikely in the future. ever before, often in the service well as human intelligence agen-

A dozen years later, by 2005, the Yet cyberattacks are already o n S elez ev of liberty and freedom. It cies are updating their tradecraft US Air Force declared it would happening, both criminal and G e tt y I m a A nt also should not come as a for the 21st century. The West is “fly, fight, and win” in cyberspace. political ones. Indeed a computer surprise that authoritar- now beginning to have an overdue The future of war would surely breach could cause an electric- ian regimes enhance their play out in that “fifth domain,” ity blackout or interrupt a city’s counter-subversion with new Thomas Rid on top of land, sea, air, and space. water supply, although that also technologies and the Internet: is a Reader in War Dark warnings of a “Cyber Pearl has never happened in the past. So spying on their citizens, arresting Studies at King’s Harbor” soon became a staple of if it’s not war, what is it? the troublemakers, both liberal College London. He is the author of Washington discourse. Earlier this The politically most important and illiberal ones. Cyber War Will Not year, the Pentagon announced a attacks are either sabotage, espio- So what precisely is the problem Take Place five-fold staff increase at its Cyber nage, or subversion. with cyber war? (Oxford University Command, despite acute budget Code-borne sabotage is a real Talk of cyber war is mislead- Press/Hurst). cuts. America, it seems, is gearing risk. So-called Industrial Control ing. On closer examination of the private up for cyber combat. Systems run all sorts of things that facts, the opposite of war is hap- But what would such an act move fast and can burn: trains, gas pening: computer breaches are less debate about what kind of intel- of cyber war look like? History pipelines, civilian aircraft, refiner- violent than old-style attacks, not ligence activity is legitimate for suggests three features: To count ies, even elevators and medical more violent. Violent sabotage, a 21st century democracy, and as an armed attack, a computer devices. Many of these systems Stuxnet-style, may have become where red lines should be drawn. breach would need to be violent. are highly vulnerable to breaches, harder if done through computer Drawing these lines requires sub- If it can’t hurt or kill, it’s simply and knowledge about some system – but non-violent sabotage is now tlety. It is therefore time for this can’t be war. An act of cyber vulnerabilities is easily available. possible, easier, and it is happen- debate to drop even the “cyber-” war would need to be instrumen- Therefore the number of violent ing more often: crashing websites, and call a spade a spade again: tal. In a military confrontation, computer-sabotage attacks against deleting files, and stealing negotia- espionage, plain and simple. one party generally uses force Western targets may come as a tion strategies. The same goes for And finally talk of “cyberwar” to compel the other party to do surprise: Zero. espionage: infiltrating software is in the interest of those with a something they would otherwise Why zero? Because caus- and opening remote backdoors harsher vision of the web’s future. not do. And an act of war would ing havoc for a truly critical is much less risky than infiltrating Many countries are tempted to need to be political, in the sense target through weaponzied human agents and clandestinely take control over their cyberspace, that one opponent says: “Look, if code is harder than it looks. bugging embassy walls. over their sovereign corner of the you don’t do X, we’ll strike you; Target intelligence is needed. Talk of cyber war is also disre- Internet. Especially authoritarian and if you don’t comply, we’ll Control systems are often spectful. Last year the US Depart- states like to tweak their techni- strike again.” That’s the gist of uniquely configured for highly ment of Defense considered creat- cal infrastructure, their national two centuries of strategic thought. specific tasks, and also incorpo- ing a new Distinguished Warfare laws, and their firewalls to “pro- No past cyber attack meets rate plant-specific legacy compo- Medal for drone operators and tect sovereignty in cyberspace,” these criteria. Very few even nents. This limits the possibility of for the United States, Europe, costs are is unclear; that they are developers of computer attacks. as they like to say – which in meet a single one. Never has a generic attacks. That means potent and other advanced economies. big is certain. But espionage is Real combat veterans protested practice means protecting intel- human being been injured or hurt attack software needs to be tailor- The bigger and more immediate not war, and cyber-espionage is vehemently when they learned lectual property thieves from for- Offense dominates defense as an immediate consequence of made. It also needs to be tested problem is not the NSA violating not cyberwar. that the award would have ranked eign pressure and rounding up a computer-attack. Never did on real-life equipment. A case in the privacy of Americans and Finally there is subversion, using higher than the Purple Heart. dissidents at home. a state coerce another state by point is Stuxnet, the famous attack the country’s allies. The bigger social media and other Internet Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel The armed forces need to stay cyberattack. Very rarely have against Iran’s nuclear enrichment danger is that emerging markets services to undermine established then scrapped the medal. Ending focused on fighting and winning in cyberspace state-sponsored offenders taken program. in Asia are clandestinely sucking authority. It does not come as a or saving the life of another human the real wars of the future. That’s credit for an attack. So if we are The second threat is cyber-espi- competitiveness and employment surprise anymore that subversives being is an existential experience; hard enough. Let us not militarize talking about war – the real thing, onage. Data breaches are not just out of advanced economies via use new technologies, from Anon- deleting or modifying data is not. the struggle for the free and liberal The global nature of the Internet requires international cooperation | By Joseph S. Nye Jr. not about a metaphor (as in the a risk, but a real bleeding wound fiber-optic cable. How big these ymous to Occupy Wall Street to Violence demands respect. Internet today. n

Ikon Images/F1online Bildagentur

eneral Martin E. Dempsey, From what we can discern now, few incentives to restrict its behavior United States, China, and other coun- and would be impossible to verify or chairman of the US Joint nuclear and cyber war would be enor- because the benefits far exceed the costs. tries are entangled in multiple networks. enforce. Moreover, the United States has Chiefs of Staff, recently mously different experiences. Nuclear Spying is as old as human history and China, for example, would itself lose resisted agreements that could legitimize declared that cyber attacks explosions are unambiguous and imme- does not violate any explicit provisions from a cyber attack that severely dam- authoritarian governments’ censorship hadG “escalated from an issue of moder- diate; cyber intrusions can plant logic of international law. aged the US economy, and vice versa. of the Internet. ate concern to one of the most serious bombs in the infrastructure that may go While US-Soviet political and ideologi- In addition, an unknown attacker may Nonetheless, it may be possible to threats to our national security. We now unnoticed for long periods. cal competition limited the countries’ be deterred by denial. If firewalls are identify behaviors like cyber crime that live in a world of weaponized bits and Moreover, cyber destruction can cooperation in some areas, awareness strong, or the prospect of a self-enforc- are illegal across cultural and economic bytes, where an entire country can be be disaggregated, and small doses of of nuclear destructiveness led them to ing response (an “electric fence”) seems systems. Trying to limit all intrusions disrupted by the click of a mouse.” And destruction can be administered over develop a crude code of conduct to guide possible, attack becomes less attractive. would be impossible, but one could con- while many nations now have military time. Even more dramatic is the differ- the competition. Similarly, the two sides Offensive capabilities for immediate ceivably start with cyber crime and cyber units dedicated to employing cyber in ence in destructiveness. Unlike nuclear discovered a common interest in the response to a cyber attack can create an terrorism involving non-state third par- war, we may not be sure whether the hostilities, cyber war does not pose issue of nonproliferation and began to active defense that serves as a deterrent, ties; there, major states would seem to hand on that mouse will be that of an an existential threat to humanity. As cooperate in the mid-1960s. even when the identity of the attacker is have a joint interest in limiting damage official or a non-state actor. Martin Libicki of the RAND Corpora- Cooperation in the cyber domain is not fully known. by agreeing to cooperate on forensics The cyber domain includes not only tion once commented, destruction of likely to follow an analogous course. Futility can also help deter an unknown and controls. the Internet of networked computers cyber systems could return us to the There are already some institutions that attacker if the target is well protected, or Historical analogies are always dan- but also intranets, cellular technologies, economy of the 1990s − a huge loss of relate to the basic functioning of the redundancy and resilience allow quick gerous if taken too literally, and the fiber optic cables, and space-based com- GDP − but a major nuclear war could Internet, and a normative framework recovery. Moreover, attribution of the differences between nuclear and cyber munications. This domain is a complex return us to the Stone Age. In that and for cyber crime has already been started source of a cyber attack does not have to technologies are great. The cyber domain man-made environment in which the other dimensions, cyber weaponry might in the Budapest Convention. But it is be perfect; to the extent that false flags is new and dynamic, but so was nuclear barriers to entry are so low that non- be more appropriately compared with likely to take longer before the major are imperfect and rumors of the source technology at its inception. Nuclear state actors and small states can play biological and chemical arms. powers reach agreement on contentious of an attack are widely deemed credible learning was slow, halting, and incom- significant roles. While there are many degrees of issues such as cyber intrusions for espio- (though not provable in a court of law), plete. The intensity of the ideological The largest powers are unlikely to be nuclear destruction, all are above a nage and for preparing the battlefield. damage to an attacker’s reputation may and political competition in the US-Soviet able to dominate the cyber domain as threaten its “soft power” and thereby they have others like sea, air, or space. contribute to deterrence. Large countries may have greater cyber Finally, a reputation for offensive resources than non-state actors, but they The largest powers capability and a declared policy that Joseph S. Nye Jr. is University Distinguished also have greater vulnerabilities, and keeps open the potential means of retali- Service Professor at at this stage in the development of the are unlikely to be able ation can help to reinforce deterrence. Harvard's Kennedy School technology, offense dominates defense Of course, non-state actors are harder of Government. in cyberspace. to dominate the cyber domain to deter, and improved defenses such Analysts of cyberspace are still not clear as preemption and human intelligence as they have others tom fitzsimmons about the meaning of offense, defense, become important in such cases. deterrence, escalation, norms, and arms like sea, air, or space. In the cyber domain, the global nature control. At the same time, there is a of the Internet requires international relationship was much greater than that danger of hyping the cyber threat. cooperation. Some people call for cyber between the United States and Russia The term “cyber attack” covers a wide dramatic threshold or firebreak, and Nevertheless, the inability to envisage arms control negotiations and formal or the United States and China today. variety of actions, ranging from simple there has been a taboo against any an overall agreement need not prevent treaties, but differences in cultural norms There were far fewer positive strands of probes, to defacing web sites, to denial nuclear weapons use for seven decades. progress on sub-issues. For example, and the difficulty of verification make interdependence in the relationship. Yet of service, to espionage and destruc- In addition, although there is an overlap Russia and the United States agreed this such treaties hard to negotiate or imple- the intensity of the zero-sum game did tion. Similarly, the term “cyber war” of civilian and military nuclear technol- year to establish various cyber security ment. At the same time, it is not too early not prevent the development of rules is used very loosely for a wide range of ogy, nuclear technology originated in links “to reduce the mutual danger we to explore international talks and coop- of the road and cooperative agreements behaviors. the war-fighting apparatus. In the cyber face from cyber threats.” eration to try to develop rough rules of that helped to preserve the concurrent A more useful definition of cyber war realm the web has burgeoned in the Many analysts argue that deterrence the road that can limit conflict. The most positive-sum game. equates it to hostile actions in cyber- civilian sector. does not work in Cyberspace because promising early areas for international That is the good news. The bad news space that have effects which amplify 90 percent of military telephone and of the problem of attributing attacks to cooperation are probably not bilateral is that cyber technology gives much or are equivalent to major physical Internet communications travel over specific actors, but that assertion is too conflicts but problems posed by third more power to non-state actors than violence. lf one treats hacktivism as civilian networks. Finally, because of simple. Interstate deterrence through parties such as criminals and terrorists. does nuclear technology, and the threats mostly a disruptive nuisance at this low costs and easy commercial access entanglement and denial (i.e., defensive Cultural differences present a dif- such actors pose are likely to increase. stage, there are four major categories of to the web, the barriers to entry to measures) still exists, even when there is ficulty in reaching broad agreements The transnational, multi-actor games cyber threats to national security. cyberspace are much lower for non-state inadequate attribution. Even when the on regulating content on the Internet. of the cyber domain pose a new set of Cyber war and economic espionage actors than is the case in the nuclear source of an attack can be successfully Russia and China have sought a treaty questions about the meaning of national are largely associated with states: cyber realm. disguised under a “false flag,” govern- for broad international oversight of the security. n crime and cyber terrorism are mostly Thus far, there have been no major ments may find themselves sufficiently Internet and “information security,” associated with non-state actors. At crises in the cyber domain, though entangled in symmetrically interdepen- banning deception or the embedding of A longer version of this article present, the highest costs come from denial of service attacks in 2007 and dent relationships that a major attack malicious code or circuitry that could be appeared in the September/October espionage and crime, but over the next 2008 on Estonia and Georgia and the would be counterproductive. Unlike the activated in the event of war. 2013 issue of the Bulletin of the Atomic decade or so, sabotage, war, and ter- Stuxnet malware attack on Iran give single strand of military interdependence But the United States has argued that Scientists under the title: “From bombs rorism may become greater threats than hints of what might come. In the area that linked the United States and the arms control measures banning offense to bytes. Can our nuclear history inform they are today. of industrial espionage, China has had Soviet Union during the Cold War, the can damage defense against attacks our cyber future?” law;and reducing risk in its criti criminal enforcing capabilities; intelligence appropriate taining main cyberspace; in nation the maintain capabilities for defending significant pressure to develop and ments. pay- mobile and ATMs affecting bank, major a of computers the of many froze attack an 2013, in and computers; 30,000 down took company, gas natural and oil national a Aramco, against attack 2012 A companies. cial finan- and energy major of tions opera- critical the disrupted has ple, a series of recent cyberattacks cause significant harm. For exam economic and military espionage. sophisticated and infrastructure, critical threaten who attackers motivated politically fraud, and theft identity as such cybercrime have come new threats, including economic growth. improvements in civil society, and transparencyandgovernment, in efficiency increased – alike zens citi their and states for benefits great offers ICT life. modern essential to systems munications com and infrastructurescritical the control to (ICT) technology S 24 microsoft Microsoft. Computing, Trustworthy Manager,General Matt Thomlinsonis o epn, tts r under are states respond, To to exploited be also can ICT benefits these with along Yet PTX_Milieu_Baustelle_290x260_AusgabeXXXXXXXXXXX_170113.indd 1 and communications communications and information of network global a upon dependent increasingly are ocieties SGP-Singapore 609927 SGP-Singapore Centre European Nordic 03-28 # Park Business International 3 No. Electric MENNEKES Singapore PowerTOP conditions. for toughest connectors Plugs and by MENNEKES

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21.01.2013 08:40:25 November 2013 n - - - - - H

the same thing today – in the the in – today thing same the sur no exactly as doing are they that prise come should it so states; other from secrets steal to spies of armies in heavily ing invest been have the over world all governments if not millennia, centuries, comes For tag. this price a with all But municate. the way we revolutionizing com to effectively including benefits humanity, have immense and brought technologies Internet mobile the of of opment munications. privacy com of their protection the and their about paranoid be to reasons tangible had many so everyone when other now time than a been prob hasn’t There ably article. this read while puter you targeting they’re com your be could it chance a There’s minute. this right world h ivnin n devel and invention The Surprise, surprise! Spies go cyberspace 13-09-16_163_ID104_eAz_Crossrail_»Atlantic-,German-,PacificAsia Times«_290x260mm Satzspiegel_4c (ZEITUNG)_oc_Fassung 05 13-09-16_168_ID104_eAz_Crossrail_AtGerAsPacTimes_290x260_05_bp.indd 1 Pioneering Underground Technologies www.herrenknecht.com puters all over the the over all puters com from mation infor confidential stealing are ackers If governmentsaskedme,I’dtellthem:Stopengagingincyber-espionage|ByEugeneKaspersky Rapid there will 42 be there tunnels. of km bored of up (52.8 torings 33 m) a day. On completion project. construction link and east-west capacity A key inrole ------oae etr A uvy con survey A sector. cor the porate in worse not if acute now. right operational fully systems similar other be could there that is ing alarm most What’s will. never who was behind it, and probably know don’t still We 2007. since operational was which system, this run and develop profes to sionals skilled highly 20 least at of team a taken have would it that believe We countries. of scientific- in dozens organizations research and governmental diplomatic, from data classified It stealing was that network a was October. Red mal dubbed ware espionage unprecedentedly sophisticated the covered fewer martinis. vodka and geeks more and bespectacled more with – digital more and more becoming has been trade of age-old couple this last decades the in As result, a cyberspace. new relatively The problem is at least as as least at is problem The dis Lab Kaspersky year Last Crossrail, Impressive progress progress Impressive London’s high new Europe’s Europe’s largest ------director of its National Security Security National its of director the Alexander, Keith US, the to of billions of dollars. With regard be hundreds to up run can to estimated damage economy. the global However, the costs it much how just calculate to hard it’s so world, murky a is onage information. sensitive a being that of as quarter a – leaks result data companies experiencing of percent 35 year, with last the in infrastructure IT their on attack external one of least at experienced percent companies 91 overwhelming an all that showed world countries the over 24 in pro IT fessionals 3000 almost of 2013 in International B2B by ducted Industrial and Industrial state cyber-espi The Security Times • Cyber - -

or running it on their behalf. behalf. network October Red the their After on it running or corporations and governments to malware their selling hackers Kimsuky), or it may be groups of cam paign against South Korea called cyber-espionage the recent behind been have to was likely Korea North that believe Lab (for Kaspersky at states we example, nation units by be could created It at. guessed be ever only can attribution as impossible practically is attacks in wealth history.’ of transfer ‘the as greatest cyberspies by off oned syph is that companies US by property intellectual of loss the Agency (NSA), recently described Identifying who is such behind Identifying Trusted 6 EPB Shields + 2 Mixshields. + 2 Mixshields. 6 EPB Shields technology: Herrenknecht on rely contractors Crossrail - - from cyber-espionage when when cyber-espionage from oneself secure to how on tions rarely used. rarely effectively. Thus, this approach is needs communicating – often course and of information sensitive affairs and nesses of government busi of functioning smooth the for as hard practice, in is implement to separation such cases most in that understand I ever, How them. around placed be A all. should at perimeter safety physical Internet networks the with or corporate general the with connection physical have a not should ideally ments docu valuable critically contain how? But protection. data mize the be aim sible; should to maxi to afterward. to attention their turn they to what decided – of thought the at One down. shudder and – wonder it only can shut quietly it behind people the exposed, was The most basic recommenda basic most The that networks all, of First ultroig aa s impos is data Bulletproofing Top Choice technology Paulo in Kuala Moscow, Lumpur, YorkNew and Sao Delhi, Guangzhou, joins Singapore, London choosing Herrenknecht tunnelling tunnelling Herrenknecht choosing for new railways and metros. for railways new ------

Sergey Nivens/Fotolia.com out. carry to attacks expensive prohibitively of sophisticated most the but all making – monsense protect com security basic to with oneself easy relatively still it’s that is any news good The at time. safe is computers their on stored data ‘confidential’ the that feel hardly can they that is governments and companies for living. of standards maintaining for paradigm them” vs. “us and the resources limited for fight all just an extension of the eternal after is Cyber-espionage notice. as don’t, I none of but them is going to take any peace), in life living everyone – imagine (just stop engaging in cyber-espionage to world the of governments all legitimate ones. perfectly as cations communi their malware-containing increas disguising at adept are ingly as cybercriminals enforce to hardest the ably prob is rule latter The sources. unknown from e-mails in ments exploits), attach open should one no and software zero-day tackling of installed capable be (preferably should software anti-malware date, to up kept be should on the network puters com all on software All ward. straightfor are very the Internet are one’s networks up hooked to security. information fieldof in the expert global Lab, andaleading CEO ofKaspersky und founder is the Kaspersky Eugene priv In the meantime, the bad news news bad the meantime, In the I would like to be able to call on ate

16.09.13 17:58 25 n ------26 November 2013

The Security Times • Cyber Cyber security A continuous challenge By John Suffolk and Ulf Feger

ews that Angela Economic impulses are also Merkel’s mobile stirring. Investors have started phone may have asking about opportunities in been wiretapped by “German cyber.” The telecom theN NSA propelled the Snowden giant Deutsche Telekom has affair unexpectedly back into announced ideas like a national the center of the German media German Intranet for German-to- and political debate. The US German e-mails. And – this is ambassador was summoned to the real turnaround – no one is the Foreign Ministry and German talking about costs anymore, only politicians of every hue voiced about opportunities. their concerns. The IT superpowers China and On this occasion, politicians the US tend to smile benevolently and the media were in agree- when they hear stories like this. ment. That contrasts with the cau- China considers itself too cheap tious political reaction when the to fail and the US considers itself Snowden revelations first broke. too everywhere to fail. But new After the initial media furor, it trends in IT might prove them seemed that nothing serious had wrong – especially the upcom- really happened. A lot of hot air Ikon Images/F1online Bildagentur ing “embedded revolution” with was generated in the first weeks, computers to be placed in all tz but for mundane reasons: The kinds of machinery. media was at a loss for stories. This new IT doesn’t have to be T.de/Peter Mal The German parliament was in highly sophisticated or extremely summer recess and the affair expensive; it can be cheap, yet still fell right into the beginning of Worldwide web divided secure. It doesn’t have to be highly the German election campaign performing or extremely cheap cycle. But despite the media at the cost of safety and security.

The Snowden affair spurs demand for an end to super power IT supremacy picture-alliance/dieKLEINER interest, the average German And experience with office IT and on the street didn’t seem to care and for “technological sovereignty” | By Sandro Gaycken consumer electronics is not that much. important. All these traditional Even now, surveys exhibit only Data protection advocates about the restriction of privacy; – as of late – for secure mobile advantages of US and Chinese a very slight change of attitudes finally had proof of something equally solid concern arose in phones. Some of the solutions on vendors are less relevant. In this towards data protection. This they had long feared. Officials authorities over the restauration Sandro Gaycken offer are made in Germany. field, the world could start from is a Director in the lack of interest was something of immediately started to gather of governmental communica- NATO SPS Program on Many countries have scratch. a surprise. Many policy makers expert groups, and to lobby poli- tions; confidentiality. The NSA National Cyberstrategies announced an interest in German Germany might be the country and activists expected outrage. ticians to harden and to interna- and other agencies party to the and the former IT. A fair part of the world is best positioned to embark on this Cybersecurity Strategist But the public had apparently tionalize German and European multilateral signals intelligence for the German fed up with its dependence upon mission. It has solid knowledge expected as much from the NSA. data protection standards. cooperation agreement called foreign ministry. superpower products from China about technology and how to There seemed to be no sense of A first consequence of this effort “Five Eyes” – signatories are and the US. regulate it in general. It knows the surprise, no emotional moment. has just surfaced. The Committee the US, UK, Canada, Australia FU Berlin This layer of the problem gener- machinery that will host embed- Germans only seem to be overly on Civil Liberties, Justice and and New Zealand – seemed to ated a very interesting, yet barely ded IT. It is modest in its intel- concerned about state surveillance Home Affairs (LIBE) has backed be able and willing to get into These concerns for secrecy visible impulse. Germany is care- ligence activities, not active in if the state doing the snooping is a reform of European data protec- anything. (Sweden, France and triggered another debate over fully developing ambitions to industrial espionage and a trusted their own. That sheds an interesting tion. The reform was due anyhow. many others appear to take a technological sovereignty. This become a new Silicon Valley. This agent in many respects. And it light on the country’s usual preoc- But the NSA scandal made it a similar approach.) has been on and off the politi- is a common baseline in many has always been keen on proper cupation with data protection. At strong piece of legislation. Com- Parliamentarians and govern- cal agenda without any resolu- current discussions. Government engineering with lots of reliabil- least a part of it seems to be more panies compromising customer ment officials suddenly felt intim- tion being achieved so far. Costs representatives stress the need for ity, safety, security and durability an attempt to cope with German data can be made liable for up idated, seeing their independence were too high, and there seemed German solutions and the accom- built in. history than a real concern about to €100 million or 5 percent of threatened. German companies to be too little demand. Now, panying investments in research, This new theme is still far from surveillance as such. So is it all their annual profits; law enforce- immediately feared cooperation however, there is strong demand education and development. reality. But it’s in the heads of over? No harm done? Far from it. ment agencies are only allowed between the secret services and coming from a wide range of The Bavarian government will many German decision-makers Underneath the visible layer to gather data as long as basic foreign companies on industrial stakeholders, including some in soon release one billion Euros for and engineers. And this is the real, of the loud yet finite media hur- human rights are respected; and espionage – and not without Germany. IT development, much of it on the more substantial and – for the ricane and the contrasting lack European data can only be sub- reason. The German Engineer- Government institutions, politi- IT security. The German foreign US – probably the most devas- of public interest, anger has been mitted to other nations if requests ing Federation (VDMA) reported cians and companies are asking ministry recently offered to help tating outcome of the Snowden simmering among many who are conform with European law. widespread concern among its for sovereign clouds, sovereign national IT-security companies to affair: A market and many professionally involved with data But concern spread beyond cir- members, who fear losses in the data links, networking equipment establish contacts in other coun- visions for an end to superpower protection or secrecy. cles where activists are concerned billions. and networks for computers and tries. supremacy in the field of IT. n

yber security is an issue of We believe it is only by working failed up till now. In the last 20 years intense interest to our cus- together internationally, as vendors, the global ICT industry has exploded tomers, governments, and customers, policy and law makers around agreed global technical stan- vendors alike with the topic will we make a substantial difference dards and disciplines – everything Cfrequently being in the headlines. in addressing the global cyber from hypertext to WiFi – but when it Indeed it is probably accurate to say security challenges. We also believe comes to cyber security many stan- cyber security has never been higher that we must share knowledge and dards are just not standard or even up on the global news agenda. understanding of what works and exist. The high interest reflected in the what does not work to reduce the It is time to press the reset button John Suffolk Ulf Feger intense coverage and attention could risk of people using technology for on the security challenge and ask Senior Vice President and Cyber Security Officer lead to the misleading thought that we purposes never intended. ourselves if we wish the future to be Global Cyber Security Officer of Huawei Technologies are facing something fundamentally If there was a simple answer or a different from the past, and indeed of Huawei Technologies Deutschland GmbH Finding a middle way different than before. However, the solution to the cyber security chal- today, in what way will we work issues that need to be solved with the lenge it would have been found by together to define and agree new global information, communications now, and it would have been adopted. norms of behaviour, new standards, About Huawei The cyber debate in India | By Samir Saran & Abhijit Iyer-Mitra and technology (ICT) infrastructure However, the sheer fact that the world new laws and create a new realism Huawei is a leading global information and communications have not changed much in recent continues to debate standards, laws, in the balance between privacy and technology (ICT) solutions provider. Through our dedication to ndia is uniquely dependent whole. Thus, the state will have cooperation, which is to some private sector and civil society was brought into focus – spe- nymity, intellectual property and years. In fact, the challenges are rather codes and norms tells you we are all security. customer-centric innovation and strong partnerships, we have on the cybersphere – it is to be empowered, to some extent extent based on countries ceding proved especially thorny given cifically the question of training national territoriality. structural and deep-rooted. at the early stage – we must share The more governments, enterprises established end-to-end advantages in telecom networks, devices the chosen medium for the at least, to deal with the kind of sovereignty and working with the issue of trust and surveillance large numbers of people to ensure One final question that came The question that we need to find a what works, so others can adapt and and technology vendors can detail implementation of the coun- social instabilities that can be gen- each other. especially with regards to privacy. that India’s planned cybersecu- and cloud computing. We are committed to creating maximum value up was whether technologi- common answer to remains the same: improve. common standards, understand their Itry’s socio-economic schemes. But erated in the real world through Another overarching theme, Jaak Aaviksoo, the Estonian rity policy can be implemented. cal developments would allow for telecom operators, enterprises and consumers by providing How can we reduce the risks to people, The time has come to elevate this purpose and the positive difference this also exposes the country to acts in the virtual domain. and one on which there was much Minister of Education flagged the Deputy National Security Adviser states to dominate. This is a competitive solutions and services. Our products and solutions have companies and governments in our beyond the level of companies and they make and commit to their effec- a higher probability of cyber- The debate threw up some less disagreement, was the role of issue of the Internet “not being a Shri Nehchal Sandhu admitted debate that has played out his- been deployed in over 140 countries, serving more than one third of ICT system when it is, by its nature, make cyber security a priority for tive adoption through buyers using attack, according to National interesting nuances. One confer- the private sector. There seemed virtual domain.” There are physi- that “while India has a national torically in every new medium the world’s population. Security Adviser Shivshankar ence participant said surveillance to be general consensus that the cal aspects to it, he pointed out, cybersecurity policy it is still to that has emerged. As the inter- global, interconnected and therefore international, inter-governmental their buying power, the more the Menon. “Commitments to plu- was like salt – good in modera- government’s role was morph- and that means there are specific develop a national cyber-security national negotiations proceed fiendishly complex to untangle and institutions. In the 21st century cyber world will begin to see a difference. rality and democracy in the cyber- tion, unpalatable in excess. But ing from that of a regulator to a requirements in terms of how we strategy.” in the coming years, the whole safeguard? security is vital for all the aspects of This is not about solving every prob- egy and governance structure, its dures, the greater the promotion and sphere have to be tempered by it is clear there are many unre- facilitator. Delegates emphasized build resilience into the system. The sheer size of India’s cyber- question of whether we are Just to give you a hint on how global life that in previous centuries would lem, but it is about having a common day-to-day processes and standards, impact on our ability to deliver better security considerations,” Menon solved issues, including the very population makes its national going to have an internet that is technology is: Up to 70 percent of the have forced governments to come agreement about what problems we staff management, R&D, security veri- quality products and services. said. Discovering the golden mean definition of what privacy is and deliberations critical to the global transcendental and collectively components of the technology port- together to thrash out a resolution. are trying to solve and how they should fication, third-party supplier manage- At Huawei we are willing to work is both an Indian and a global what it is that we are trying to Samir Saran is Abhijit Iyer-Mitra dialogue. The key discussions here used across the world or is it folio of Huawei are not from Huawei From economic well-being to national be solved. ment, manufacturing, delivery and with all governments, customers and imperative. It was against this protect. revolved around whether to pro- going to be dominated by each Vice-President is programme itself, but from a global supply chain, security, cyber security impinges on While we urge governments to traceability. partners to jointly cope with cyber background that delegates met in The debate on the concept at the Observer coordinator for the mote sovereignty on the net or country in its own little domain with US companies being the big- areas that are the proper domain of work together to make more progress The white paper is a small contribu- security threats and challenges in New Delhi on Oct. 14 and 15 for and limits of sovereignty in Research conference. even to seek a wholly sovereign of influence. Foundation and gest provider of components at 32 diplomats, not just company CEOs, on advancing cyber security, it also tion to our collective knowledge and order to enhance our capability and CYFY 2013, the inaugural India cyberspace was also combat- the co-host of Internet. Are we going to side The India conference was the Conference on Cyber Security and ive. The central question was CyFy2013. with those who say information start of a process – one that raised percent. Most other companies have however powerful. remains absolutely incumbent upon we have written it to help people effectiveness in designing, developing Cyber Governance. how to regulate a domain that security is absolute, or those many questions and found some similarly complex supply chains. That It might seem a little excessive to ICT firms to show progress themselves. understand some of the policies, and deploying secure technology. private private Given the democratic nature is international in its operation who say each government has interesting and out-of-the-box means we will all need to consider compare cyber security and the threat In this regard Huawei’s white paper procedures and transformations that Huawei continues to believe that of India and its sheer size, the through the exercise of national the absolute freedom to do what answers. The complexity of the the challenges beyond the confines we faced by nuclear weapons over on cyber security, which was released vendors such as Huawei are consider- the world is a better place when the solutions it chooses will have a sovereignty. “Cyber governance the state’s role in setting security He also raised the question of it wants in its own territory. debate dictates that this will not of our own company if we are to many decades. But the issues are not on October, 18 provides detailed ing in relation to cyber security. We innovations brought about by the seminal influence on the future is something of an oxymoron,” standards to ensure the resilience moral legitimacy, required to That India is finding its own be an easy path to navigate. The strengthen the security of our net- radically different and the approach information about its end-to-end recognize we still have much to do to use of technology are maximized, of cyberspace. The underlying said Kapil Sibal, Indian Minister of the net. Contrary to romantic create a culture of trust building middle way was best reflected India Conference on Cyber Gov- works and products. to tackling them remains a sound one. cyber security approach, including continuously improve our approach. they improve people’s lives, and they theme for most of the discus- for Communications and Infor- notions of the Internet and social between the government and the by the fact that, despite furious ernance and Cyber Security will It is a widely shared view that global Collaboration at the highest levels of a practical overview of the approach However, our commitment to open- improve economies. Huawei will sions was how to preserve the mation Technology, “and a re- media destroying the existing people because the whole ques- debate, there was little to no not and cannot be a one-off inter- questions can be answered only on diplomacy is the best way to make sig- Huawei takes to the design, build ness and transparency drives every- continue its open and transparent democratic nature of cyberspace imagined notion of sovereignty is state system, the reverse is true tion of state versus citizen has mention of PRISM or Snowden. action among multi-stakeholders. a global level. Yet for decades well- nificant progress on complex problems. and deployment of technology that thing we do and we believe the more approach and responsible position while protecting it. An early con- essential to develop an effective – the state is empowered more been a central theme in the evo- Being pragmatic it would seem It is the beginning of a strong intentioned words from technology Attempts to create true uniformity involves cyber security consider- sensus emerged that privacy and cybersecurity paradigm.” The dramatically than ever before. lution of the debate on cyber India and Indians, unlike the EU forum that can debate India’s people who review, consider, assess to its operations and everything it n individual freedom would have dilemma here is the inherent con- However the question of provid- governance. or Brazil, have chosen to forgo policies, help mould its strat- companies have led to little progress. at international standardization have ations, including overarching strat- and question our policies and proce- does. to be balanced against the ques- flict between national security ing or generating sufficient coop- India’s own policy in terms of rhetoric and instead debate the egy and simultaneously address tion of security of society as a and the necessity of international eration between the government, developing a layered approach core issues around privacy, ano- global challenges. n Deutsche Bank db.com

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