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Project Brunel Project Brunel Transport Industry Resources Study Highways FINAL REPORT Railways December 2008 Transport Planning Page intentionally blank Issue and Revision Record Revision Date Originator Approver Description 12/12/08 S Jackson A Willis Final Report A 23/01/09 S Jackson A Willis Final Report (Revised) Page intentionally blank Project Name: Project Brunel: Industry Study 2008 Project Brunel Transport Industry Resources Study A study into the supply and demand of professional engineering, technical and planning skills within the Road, Rail and Transport Planning sectors of the UK Transportation Industry Terms of Reference The consultant’s primary objectives are to: ¾ Produce a body of work that establishes both a baseline position and potential future positions that identifies shortages and constraints within defined professional disciplines. ¾ Identify actions to be taken that will potentially overcome the constraints; in timeframes characterised as short, medium and long term. Secondary objectives are; ¾ Establish methodologies and processes that will allow the exercise to be repeated at least cost in order to keep the study ‘live’ and up-to-date. ¾ Establish a forum or body that will be able to ‘speak with one voice’ on the subject matter of resource planning. This document has been prepared for the titled project or named part thereof and should not be relied upon or used for any other project without an independent check being carried out as to its suitability and prior written authority of Franklin & Andrews Ltd (F&A) being obtained. F&A accepts no responsibility or liability for the consequence of this document being used for a purpose other than the purposes for which it was commissioned. Any person using or relying on the document for such other purpose agrees, and will by such use or reliance be taken to confirm his agreement to indemnify F&A for all loss or damage resulting therefrom. F&A accepts no responsibility or liability for this document to any party other than the organisation by which it was commissioned. To the extent that this report is based on information supplied by other parties, F&A accepts no liability for any loss or damage suffered by the client, whether contractual or tortious, stemming from any conclusions based on data supplied by parties other than F&A and used by F&A in preparing this report. i Page intentionally blank Project Name: Project Brunel: Industry Study 2008 Partnering Group Consultant Author Steven Jackson FRICS ii Project Name: Project Brunel: Industry Study 2008 Page intentionally blank Project Name: Project Brunel: Industry Study 2008 Foreword We are living in an economic climate that, for many, is more uncertain now than at any time in the last two decades. When the Project Brunel Industry Study was commissioned in 2007 the world economy was stable and growing, the forecasts for economic growth in the UK were running at an average of 2.5% per annum through to 2012 and the reports of resource shortages were becoming ever more frequent. The effect of those shortages was manifesting itself in tender price inflation, as the laws of supply and demand took hold, and which in turn has led to programme slippage in some sectors. By early 2008, however, some economic commentators were beginning to view, what was then, the Government’s newly downgraded growth figures of 1.75% to 2.25%, as overly optimistic. As we near the end of 2008 the picture has turned even more uncertain, with commentators stating that the UK is in, or about to enter, a period of negative growth. As a result of such uncertainty, questions may be raised in some quarters as to the applicability, validity or even the necessity of the outputs from Project Brunel. No such doubts exist in the collective mind of the UK Transportation Industry, however. On the contrary, more so than ever before we need to properly plan, coordinate, control, structure and define the direction and capability of the industry. This report is set against a background of the Leitch Report 20061 wherein Lord Leitch sets out an agenda to raise all skills across the education spectrum with the laudable aim of doubling attainment rates at most levels, by 2020. Quite rightly, his report takes a long-term view. Between now and 2020 the economic climate will be variable, as it always has been. The vision however should remain unchanged. The development of world-class skills is not a project that can be turned on or off, slowed down or speeded up according to economic cycles. If the vision of Lord Leitch is to be realised then the nation must look beyond the short term, keep a view of the road ahead and not be diverted. So it is for the industry too. We must look far beyond the possibility of a project or even a programme of work here or there being postponed or otherwise delayed in the short term. The challenges that face our transport planners and engineers arising from climate change alone are huge. Set that alongside the need to meet the challenges set by the Eddington Report2, the need to optimise existing capacity through intelligent transport systems and the introduction of travel planning, we get a picture of a demand for world-class skills that will increase in the medium to long-term, irrespective of short-term economic fluctuations and performance. iii Project Name: Project Brunel: Industry Study 2008 The gestation period for a Chartered Engineer or Transport Planner is around 12-14 years if measured from the time when students face subject options for the first time. The development of these skills should not be subject to short-term economic changes. It is argued that under-investment in our transport infrastructure, and by extension our skill base, since 1945 can be directly linked to stop-start spending on projects arising from short term fiscal policies. The transportation industry (and the skills it embodies) is too strategically important to the health of the nation for it not to be nurtured. This report provides both a framework and a plan which, if implemented, will help sustain the future well-being of the industry. Steven Jackson Franklin & Andrews December 2008 iv Project Name: Project Brunel: Industry Study 2008 Project Brunel Contents Industry Study Page iii Foreword Page 1 Executive Summary Page 9 1.0 Preliminary Review (A Desktop Study) 2.0 Results and Findings Page 17 2.1 Introduction This section contains the outputs from the 2.2 Supply & Demand Data Gathering Process Page 37 3.0 Solutions 3.1 Introduction to Solutions This section contains the outputs from the 3.2 Solution Identification – Stages Consultation Process 3.3 Solution Identification - Detailed Page 47 4.0 Conclusions & Recommendations 4.1 Conclusions 4.2 Summary Recommendations 4.3 Detailed Recommendations v Project Name: Project Brunel: Industry Study 2008 Page 51 Appendices A Methodology B Supply Model, Data & Evidence Base C Demand Model D Gap Analysis: Projections & Scenarios E Solutions F Solutions: Case Studies G Industry Liaison Group Members H Industry Forum Members I Surveyed Organisations J Survey Questionnaire K Acknowledgments & Partner Organisations Page 181 References & Footnotes Tables Executive Summary Table 1: Shortages: Base Position Table 2: Shortages: Position at 2012 Section 2 Table 2.1: National Demand/Supply Estimate 2007/2013 Table 2.2: London Demand/Supply Estimate 2007/2013 Table 2.3: Transport Planning 2007/2013 Table 2.4: Highway Engineering 2007/2013 Table 2.5: Traffic Engineering 2007/2013 Table 2.6: Highways Generic Skills 2007/2013 Table 2.7: Rail Engineering 2007/2013 Table 2.8: Station Engineering 2007/2013 Table 2.9: Rail Engineering Generic Skills 2007/2013 Table 2.10: Requirements by Grade Table 2.11: Changing Demographics to 2020 Section 3 Table 3.1: Solution Implementation Stages vi Project Name: Project Brunel: Industry Study 2008 Reading Notes ¾ A reference to ‘the industry’ means the road, rail and transport planning sectors of the transportation industry. The defined technical disciplines are applicable to these sectors. ¾ The disciplines cover a complete range at all levels including engineering staff (chartered, and incorporated / technician and graduate), and other technical staff including commercial, procurement, programming and transport planning staff. The disciplines do not include artisan and trades people. ¾ As a generic reference to disciplines within this report the acronym ETP stands for Engineering, Technical and Planning. ¾ The geographical scope of the study is UK nationwide. ¾ Spending plans have been analysed through to the financial year 2013/2014. These spending plans have been used to generate the demand for resources. The model then gives demand figures through to the end of the last complete calendar year for which we have data, this being 2013. vii Project Name: Project Brunel: Industry Study 2008 Page intentionally blank Project Name: Project Brunel: Industry Study 2008 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY There is a supply of 87,400 professional Engineering, Technical and Planning (ETP) resources across the road, rail and transport planning sectors of the UK transport industry, compared with a demand for 96,900 (base year 2007). The current shortfall gap of 9,500 between supply and demand could potentially almost quadruple to over 35,000 by 2012. However, co-ordinated action by industry stakeholders could reverse this trend, and significantly close the gap, through the implementation of solution sets that influence both the supply of and demand for ETP resources. Project Outline The scope: This research project has focussed upon the examination of resource imbalances within the ETP (engineering, technical and planning) skills of the Road, Rail and Transport Planning sectors of the Transportation Industry. The objectives were two-fold: ¾ The first objective was to establish what resources, within defined professional disciplines, are available to the industry now and through to the end of 2013, and identify where resources are, and will be, in short supply by comparison to current and future demand.
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