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AC Initiation of Coverage September 10, 2019

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AC Initiation of Coverage September 10, 2019 Equity Research Me xico AC Initiation of coverage September 10, 2019 www.banorte.com Focus on improving profitability @analisis_fundam Manuel Jiménez . We initiate coverage of Arca Continental (AC) with a PT 2020 of Director Equity Research MXN$129.00 per share, which represents an 8.9x 2020E FV/EBITDA [email protected] multiple similar to the current level. Our rating is BUY Jorge Izquierdo Analyst . Arca Continental is the second largest bottler in Latin America; it [email protected] operates in a defensive industry in which it stands out for its financial strength and attractive valuation BUY Current price MXN$105.41 . Along with its synergy program, the company’s diversification and PT 2020 MXN$129.00 digitalization strategy should boost profitability going forward. AC Dividend 2020e MXN$2.40 Dividend (%) 2.3% estimates an EBITDA CAGR of 8%-10% over the next five years Upside potential 24.7% Max – Mín LTM 122.17 – 97.62 A defensive story with attractive valuation. AC is the second largest bottler Market Cap (US$m) 9,462.7 in Latin America with presence in Mexico, the U.S., Peru, Argentina, and Shares outstanding (m) 1,764.3 Float 22% Ecuador. Arca operates in a defensive industry and has implemented Daily turnover (MXN$m) 129.2 diversification and digitalization strategies that should be reflected in Valuation metrics LTM* FV/EBITDA 8.9x improved profitability levels in the coming years. In 2017, the company P/E 20.2x expanded its operations to the U.S. with a subsidiary of The Coca-Cola Company, this integration should yield US$90m in potential synergies by end Relative performance to MEXBOL 2020. AC is forecasting an EBITDA CAGR of 8%-10% over the next five (LTM) years, which we believe is feasible. As for 2019, we anticipate an EBITDA 10% 5% growth of 8.3% yoy, while it would increase 10.8% for 2020 with a margin 0% expansion of 60pb to 18.7%. According to our valuation model, we obtain a -5% -10% PT 2020 of MXN$129.00, which represents an 8.9x 2020E FV/EBITDA -15% multiple similar to the current level. AC’s shares trade at an 11.8% discount to -20% -25% the average FV/EBITDA multiple of comparable companies. In our opinion, -30% the company’s solid fundamentals and expectations of better profitability Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 MEXBOL AC* would boost a higher valuation going forward. Financial Statements Valuation and Financial metrics 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2017 2018 2019E 2020E Revenue 139,487 158,953 164,038 176,176 FV/EBITDA 9.6x 9.2x 8.5x 7.6x Operating Income 22,406 18,571 20,574 23,669 P/E 14.2x 21.4x 17.7x 14.4x EBITDA 25,993 27,467 29,746 32,950 P/BV 1.7x 1.7x 1.6x 1.5x EBITDA Margin 18.63% 17.28% 18.13% 18.70% Net Income 13,090 8,703 10,479 12,937 ROE 11.8% 7.8% 8.9% 10.2% Net Margin 9.38% 5.48% 6.39% 7.34% ROA 5.4% 3.7% 4.3% 5.0% EBITDA/ Interest 10.9x 8.8x 11.6x 16.1x Total Assets 240,285 237,879 246,333 260,104 Net Debt/EBITDA 1.2x 1.5x 1.3x 1.0x Cash 23,842 15,941 19,355 25,437 Debt/Equity 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x Total Liabilities 98,708 98,350 98,972 101,645 This document is provided for the reader’s convenience Debt 55,123 55,827 57,578 59,092 only. The translation from the original Spanish version was made by Banorte’s staff. Discrepancies may Common Equity 110,473 111,802 117,566 126,420 possibly arise between the original document in Spanish and its English translation. For this reason, the original Source: Banorte research paper in Spanish is the only official document. The Spanish version was released before the English translation. The original document entitled “Enfocada en mejorar la rentabilidad” was released on September 6, 1 2019. Document for distribution among public AC– Financial Statements Revenue & EBITDA Margin MXN, million MXN, million Year 2017 2018 2019e 2020e TCAC 225,000 25% Net Revenue 139,487 158,953 164,038 176,176 8.1% Cost of goods sold 77,025 89,712 92,249 98,672 8.6% 23% Gross profit 62,461 69,241 71,789 77,505 7.5% 175,000 21.3% General expenses 44,127 50,813 51,086 53,272 6.5% 21% Operating Income 22,406 18,571 20,574 23,669 1.8% 125,000 18.6% 18.7% 18.1% Operating Margin 16.1% 11.7% 12.5% 13.4% -5.8% 19% 17.3% Depreciation 6,651 7,942 8,795 9,282 11.7% 75,000 EBITDA 25,993 27,467 29,746 32,950 8.2% 17% EBITDA Margin 18.6% 17.3% 18.1% 18.7% 25,000 15% Interest income (expense) net (2,537) (4,113) (3,033) (2,130) -5.7% 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e Interest expense 3,149 3,924 3,508 3,330 1.9% Interest income 767 820 940 1,281 18.7% Revenue EBITDA Margin Other income (expenses) (655) (568) (688) (644) -0.6% Exchange Income (loss) 500 (441) 223 562 4.0% Unconsolidated subsidiaries 178 223 210 204 4.5% Net Income before taxes 20,048 14,681 17,747 21,743 2.7% Provision for Income taxes 3,259 3,860 5,170 6,523 26.0% Discontinued operations Net Income & ROE Consolidated Net Income 16,789 10,821 12,582 15,220 -3.2% MXN, million Minorities 3,698 2,118 2,102 2,283 -14.9% Net Income 13,090 8,703 10,479 12,937 -0.4% Net Margin 9.4% 5.5% 6.4% 7.3% EPS 7.420 4.933 5.940 7.333 -0.4% 15,000 11.8% 14% 7.8% 10.2% 12% 8.9% Balance Sheet (Million pesos) 10% 10,000 Total Current Assets 43,781 37,568 42,294 50,857 5.1% 7.2% 8% Cash & Short Term Investments 23,842 15,941 19,355 25,437 2.2% Long Term Assets 196,503 200,312 204,038 209,247 2.1% 6% 5,000 Property, Plant & Equipment (Net) 71,664 74,079 77,334 82,299 4.7% 4% Intangible Assets (Net) 60,225 60,784 60,344 60,344 0.1% 2% Total Assets 240,285 237,879 246,333 260,104 2.7% Current Liabilities 23,318 23,827 25,492 26,861 4.8% 0 0% 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e Short Term Debt 1,785 2,672 5,002 5,212 42.9% Accounts Payable 17,140 19,729 18,426 17,859 1.4% Net Income ROE Long Term Liabilities 75,391 74,523 73,480 74,784 -0.3% Long Term Debt 53,338 53,155 52,576 53,880 0.3% Total Liabilities 98,708 98,350 98,972 101,645 1.0% Common Stock 141,576 139,530 147,361 158,459 3.8% Non-controlling Interest 31,103 27,727 29,795 32,039 1.0% Total Equity 110,473 111,802 117,566 126,420 4.6% Net Debt & Net Debt to EBITDA ratio Liabilities & Equity 240,285 237,879 246,333 260,104 2.7% MXN, million Net Debt 31,281 39,886 38,223 33,656 2.5% Cash Flow (Million pesos) 2017 2018 2019e 2020e 50,000 3.0x 2.4x Cash flow from operating activities 18,231 20,614 21,481 22,935 2.5x Cash flow from investing activities (11,156) (10,483) (9,432) (9,289) 40,000 Cash flow from financing activities 11,495 (17,217) (8,291) (7,564) 1.5x 2.0x FX effect on cash (274) (815) (344) 30,000 1.3x Change in cash balance 18,295 (7,901) 3,414 6,082 1.2x 1.0x 1.5x 20,000 1.0x Source: Banorte, MSE 10,000 0.5x 0 0.0x 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e Net Debt Net Debt/EBITDA 2 Discounted Cash Flow Valuation Model (DCF) We used a discounted cash flow valuation to obtain the theoretical value of Arca Continental’s shares. Based on our estimates and the valuation model, we obtain a theoretical value of MXN$129.09, which represents an 8.9x 2020E FV/EBITDA multiple, similar to the current level. Our target price (MXN$129.00) offers an upside potential of 24.7% including a 2.3% dividend yield over current prices. Therefore, our rating is BUY. We calculated our theoretical value using a discount rate (WACC) of 10.0%, which assumes a cost of equity of 11.6%, a cost of debt of 6.7%, and a debt/capitalization ratio of 23%. We estimated the cost of equity using a risk free rate of 8.20% (which is the end-2020 estimate for Mexico’s 10Y bond), a beta of 0.62 and a market risk premium of 5.5%. The terminal value (perpetuity) considers an FV/EBITDA multiple of 8.5x, in line with the average of comparable companies, although we note that AC is currently trading below multiples recorded in recent years. Thus the exit multiple presents a discount of 9.6% vs. the last year average multiple and 14% vs. the last-three-year average multiple. As a result, our approach is conservative taking into consideration the prevailing uncertainty in local and international markets.
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