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An Analysis of Fossil-Free Alternatives for Swedish Railway

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An Analysis of Fossil-Free Alternatives for Swedish Railway DEGREE PROJECT IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT, SECOND CYCLE, 30 CREDITS STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN 2020 An Analysis of Fossil-free Alternatives for Swedish Railway MARTINA KOMUHENDO YUANJIAN ZHAI KTH ROYAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY SCHOOL OF ARCHITECTURE AND THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT TRITA ABE-MBT-20394 An Analysis of Fossil-free Alternatives for Swedish Railway Master’s thesis Martina Komuhendo & Yuanjian Zhai School of Architecture and the Built Environment KTH Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm, Sweden June 2020 ii iii Acknowledgements Our thanks go to our families, friends and classmates who through their support, the journey to complete the thesis was made possible. We would like to appreciate all the individuals who availed themselves to provide us with their time to clarify and provide insight during our research: “Magnus Forsen (Bombardier)”, “Andreas Frixen (Alstom)”, “Christer Löfving (Trafikverket Strategic Development)” and “Mats Berg ( KTH Rail Vehicle Division)”. The data, advice and perspective provided was greatly appreciated. We would most of all like to thank our supervisors Anders Lindahl (KTH), Ingrid Johansson (KTH) and Patrik Dimberg (Alstom) for the assistance and guidance they provided during this process especially during the regular meetings, positive criticism, feedback, help getting in touch with various individuals for interviews and ideas when we faced challenges. Gratitude goes to Alstom Sweden for providing the topic and allowing us to divulge into this topic. Martina Komuhendo & Yuanjian Zhai, Stockholm, June 2020 iv Abstract The transport sector is a major contributor to the rise in global temperatures and emissions. The use of fossil fuel being one of the main drivers, most modes of transport are looking at alternatives to the limited and environmentally unsustainable fuels. Despite the railway sector being considered the more ‘green’ alternative mode of transport as compared to other modes like air, there exist more work that is required to make the railway sector as efficient and green as possible especially the significant percentage of the railway networks that are still non-electrified. These lines tend to be short, isolated and in some instances with seasonal traffic, hence there not being an urgent need to electrify. The cost of electrification is usually costly especially in terms of initial infrastructure development and alternatives are needed where the cost of electrification is not viable. The main objective of this report is to analyze the current fossil-free alternatives that are available or soon to be available on the market and determine which alternative is suitable for a specific non-electrified line considering factors such as cost, impact to the environment and the long-term strategy. As this is a complex analysis, the authors of this report will utilize the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) model to determine the most suitable choice for each line. The AHP model is one of the multicriteria methods developed to deconstruct complex situations into simple levels with the first level containing the goal: determining the viability of a fossil-free alternative that may be suitable for a particular railway line using the various criteria and sub-criteria. The results differed along the various railway lines with Fryksdalsbanan, Tjustbanan, Hällnäs- Lycksele, Kinnekullebanan and Vaggerydsbanan having battery-operated trains as the optimal choice while the Mellerud-Bengtsfors, Stångådalsbanan, both Inlandsbanan (North and South), Halmstad- Nässjö, Bockabanan and Nässjö-Vetlanda favoring the hydrogen-fueled trains. In conclusion, both the battery-operated and hydrogen-fueled trains are viable options on the short, low-demand railway lines while the electric trains and diesel-fueled trains are expensive and environmentally unsuitable, respectively. Keywords: fossil-free alternatives, railway, costs, environmental impact, AHP, Sweden. v Sammanfattning Transportsektorn är en stor bidragande orsak för den ökande globala temperaturen och koldioxidutsläpp. Då fossila bränslen är en av de främsta anledningarna till ökningen så letar transportsektorn efter ett alternativ till de ändliga och miljöfarliga bränsleslagen. Även då järnvägen generellt räknats som det mer ”gröna” sättet att resa på om man jämför med andra sätt som till exempel att flyga, så finns det fortfarande mycket inom järnvägen som behöver förbättras och effektiviseras för att få järnvägssektorn att bli så grön och miljövänlig som möjligt. Då syftar vi speciellt på den andel av järnvägen som ännu inte är elektrifierad. Dessa järnvägslinjer tenderar att vara korta, isolerade delsträckor och i vissa fall endast erbjuda säsongstrafik och har på grund av detta inte ansetts behöva vara elektrifierade. Kostnaden för att elektrifiera järnvägssträckor är vanligtvis hög. Speciellt vid uppgradering av redan existerande infrastruktur. Man kommer även vara tvungen att hitta andra lösningar där uppgraderingen till elektrifierade järnvägslinjer skulle kosta så mycket att det inte skulle anses rimligt. Huvuduppgiften för den här rapporten är att analysera de nuvarande fossilfria alternativ som finns tillgängliga (nu eller som snart kommer finnas tillgängliga), för att fastställa vilket alternativ som bäst lämpar sig till en specifik linje som ej är eldriven med hänsyn till kostnad, miljöpåverkan och långtidsstrategi. Då detta är en komplicerad analys så kommer författarna av denna rapport använda sig av den analytiska hierarkiska processmodellen (AHP) för att avgöra de lämpligaste alternativen för varje enskild järnvägslinje. AHP- modellen är en av metoderna för problem med flera kriterier som utvecklats för att dela upp komplicerade situationer till enkla steg där det slutliga steget når målet: Att avgöra huruvida ett fossilfritt alternativ kan vara lämpligt för en specifik järnvägslinje genom att tillgodose alla kriterier och delkriterier. Resultaten skilde sig åt mellan olika järnvägslinjer med Fryksdalsbanan, Tjustbanan, Hällnäs-Lycksele, Kinnekullebanan och Vaggerydsbanan var batteridrivna tåg som det bästa valet medan vätgasdrivna tåg var bättre för Mellerud-Bengtsfors, Stångådalsbanan, båda Inlandsbanan (Nord and Söder), Halmstad-Nässjö, Bockabanan och Nässjö-Vetlanda. Sammanfattningsvis är både batteridrivna och vätgasdrivna tåg livskraftiga alternativ på de korta järnvägslinjerna med låg trafik medan EMU är dyra och för dieseldrivna tåg är dåligt för miljö Keywords: fossilfritt alternativ, järnväg, kostar, påverkan på miljön, AHP, Sverige. vi Definitions and Acronyms OECD: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. GDP: Gross Domestic Product. GHG: Green House Gases. NOx: Nitrogen oxides. PM: Particulate Matter. Mtoe: million tons of energy. AHP model: analytical hierarchy process model. MCA: Multicriteria Analysis. NE: New Energy train in Japan. BEMU: Battery Electric Multiple Unit. EMU: Electric Multiple Unit. IPEMU: Independently Powered Electric Multiple Unit RTRI: Japanese Railway Technical Research Institute. JR: Japan Railway company. CO2: carbon dioxide. GWP: global warming potential. BOP: balance of plant, a component of the fuel cell vehicle system. PEM: proton electrolyte membrane, a component of the fuel cell. LCA: life cycle analysis. LCC: Life cycle cost. GREET: Greenhouse gases, regulated emissions and energy use in transport. LiB: Lithium-ion Batteries. vii Contents Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................... iv Abstract .................................................................................................................................................. v Sammanfattning .................................................................................................................................... vi Definitions and Acronyms ................................................................................................................... vii Figures.................................................................................................................................................... x Tables ................................................................................................................................................... xii 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 14 1.1 Background ................................................................................................................................ 14 1.2 Objectives ................................................................................................................................... 18 1.3 Scope .......................................................................................................................................... 19 1.4 Thesis structure ........................................................................................................................... 20 2. Literature review .............................................................................................................................. 22 2.1 Definition .................................................................................................................................... 22 2.2 Alternatives ................................................................................................................................ 23 2.3 Methodology .............................................................................................................................
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