Species Status Assessment Report for the Florida Sandhill Crane (Antigone Canadensis Pratensis)

Species Status Assessment Report for the Florida Sandhill Crane (Antigone canadensis pratensis)

Version 1.0

Photo Credit: FWC

July 2018

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Region 4 Atlanta, GA

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This document was prepared by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s North Florida Ecological Services Field Office (NFL-ESFO), and the Florida sandhill crane Species Status Assessment Team (Heidi Crowell (USFWS-Region 8 Regional Office), Andreas Moshogianis (USFWS- Region 4 Regional Office), and Billy Brooks (USFWS-Region 4 NFL-ESFO)). We solicited peer review, and addressed those comments received from Dr. Anne Lacy (International Crane Foundation) and Dr. Aaron Pearse (Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center U.S. Geological Service. Partner reviews of this document were provided by the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission: Dr. Tim Dellinger, Dr. Craig Faulhaber, and Dr. Beth Stys, and by the Georgia Department of Natural Resources Dr. Todd Schneider. We also received comments from the Miccosukee Tribe of the Northern Everglades.

We are appreciative of our partners, stakeholders, and peer reviewers for providing comments that resulted in a more robust status assessment and final report.

SUGGESTED LITERATURE CITATION OF THIS DOCUMENT

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2018. Species Status Assessment Report for the Florida sandhill crane (Antigone canadensis pratensis), Version 1.0. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Southeast Region, Jacksonville, Florida. 89 pp.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Florida sandhill crane was petitioned to be listed under the Endangered Species Act of 1973, as amended (Act) on April 20, 2010. We published in the Federal Register a substantial 90-day finding on September 27, 2011 (76 FR 59836) soliciting information about and initiating a status review.

This Species Status Assessment (SSA) Report for the Florida sandhill crane is a summary of the information assembled by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service). This report was reviewed by the Service, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Miccosukee Tribe of Indians of Florida and peers. It incorporates the best scientific and commercial information available for this subspecies. This SSA is an in-depth review of the Florida sandhill crane biology and threats, an evaluation of its biological status, and an assessment of the resources and conditions needed to maintain species viability. We begin the SSA process with an understanding of the subspecies’ life history, and from that we evaluate the biological requirements of individuals and the population of this subspecies using the principles of population resiliency, species redundancy, and species representation. All three concepts (or analogous ones) apply at both the population and species levels, and are explained that way below for simplicity and clarity as we introduce them.

The Florida sandhill crane is one of six subspecies of sandhill cranes of which three are migratory (Lesser, Canadian, Greater) and three are nonmigratory (Mississippi, Florida, Cuban). Sandhill cranes are a long-necked, heavy-bodied, long-legged bird. Males and females have gray or rust-colored plumage that contrasts with a red crown, the latter of which is present on all but first-year birds. The Florida sandhill crane relies upon fresh water marshes (roosting, foraging, nesting) that are within, adjacent, or close to open grasslands and prairies, and also human manipulated environments such as rangelands, pastures, farms and some suburban areas (foraging). The Florida sandhill crane is a single, large population that ranges from the Okefenokee Swamp in southern Georgia to the Everglades in south Florida. Florida sandhill cranes are represented throughout their historical range (at the time of subspecies recognition) with a majority of the population residing in central Florida.

Florida sandhill cranes are long-lived and are monogamous with low annual reproductive potential and extended parental care behavior. Breeding occurs from December through August with a peak from late February through April. Pairs will usually lay two eggs in a nest and both the male and female incubate the eggs that generally hatch in 29 to 32 days. Hatchlings are capable of leaving nests within 24 hours after hatching. If a breeding effort fails, renesting up to three times in a breeding season has been documented. Flight capability (fledging) generally occurs at 75 days after hatch and immature cranes disperse from the family at approximately 10 months.

Since the 1970s, population estimates have ranged from 4,000 to 8,600. The estimates for Florida are based upon distribution, available habitat, and density estimates. The most recent estimate is approximately 5,000 individuals. Breeding bird survey data indicate a long-term positive population growth trend (1966–2016) in Florida despite the substantial habitat loss/conversion/degradation and extended drought in the early 2000s. Productivity rates also infer a stable or growing population trend except in the driest years and are sufficient to maintain

or grow the population in all but the driest years. The traditional method for estimating the population size is based upon suitable habitat (grasslands, prairies, pasture, and fresh water wetlands) and it is now important to note the use of suboptimal suburban habitats (e.g., suburban neighborhoods, recreational parks, golf courses with wetlands) in greater numbers than in the past.

The primary threats identified for the Florida sandhill crane include: habitat loss/conversion/degradation, changing climate conditions (drought and precipitation-timing and heavy rain events), and mortalities resulting from predation, collisions, or human interactions/nest disturbances. Another factor worth noting is future consumptive water needs for the growing human population of Florida and for agriculture. Both water use and a growing human population may influence ground and surface water availability for Florida sandhill cranes and the overall health of Florida wetlands. More studies are needed to quantify and predict such impacts.

It is well documented that habitat loss, conversion, or degradation has occurred throughout the Florida sandhill crane’s range for many decades. It is estimated that 6.8 million acres of Florida suitable habitat has been lost, converted, or degraded since the early 1970s. The best available information indicates an estimated 3.9 million acres of suitable habitat remain within the Florida sandhill crane’s range from the Okefenokee Swamp to the Everglades; 90 percent of this habitat is concentrated within 20 counties of central Florida. Approximately one-fourth of the suitable habitat is located within conservation lands and the majority remains on private lands, which highlights the importance of working with the private landowners in regards to wildlife conservation incentive programs. Federal and State regulations provide protection to wetlands by requiring avoidance, minimizing impacts, and implementing mitigation; however, the uplands are not provided similar protections. As a State of Florida listed species, Florida permitting guidelines and best management practices has been developed in order to reduce impacts from development and other land uses, such that the Florida sandhill cranes’ resource needs are being maintained.

Precipitation has decreased in central Florida and increased in the northern and southern areas of the Florida sandhill crane’s range. Heavy downpours have increased in Florida, and severe, more frequent or extended droughts have been occurring and are likely to continue as one of the primary threats into the future. Extended droughts can also lead to low annual-productivity and recruitment. Drought conditions are likely resulting in some level of negative effects on the subspecies’ reproductive success and recruitment, and contributing to increased levels of predation. Although drought is a naturally occurring event that affects the ecology of the Florida sandhill crane, this subspecies has adapted by having a prolonged nesting season and can renest up to three times after failed attempts. Additionally, at this time, these changes in climate conditions are not resulting in a demonstrated decrease in long-term population trend, i.e., the current trend is positive.

We developed three future risk scenarios: (1) Conditions stay the same as currently with low levels of climate change, and improved management on conservation and private lands; (2) impacts from development continue current trends, and conservation actions continue primarily

on conservation lands; and (3) the effects from land use change, climate change, and reduction of management on conservation lands decrease.

The potential future individual or cumulative impacts associated with habitat loss/conversion/degradation, changing climate conditions, and mortalities vary, and are also dependent on land use changes that are expected to be negative overall, but in some cases beneficial. We considered both 25- and 50-year future timeframes in our analysis because they are within the range of the available models for Florida development and climate change forecasts that cover Florida and southern Georgia. Our consideration of potential impacts out to the 50-year timeframe includes four generations of 12.1 years for this subspecies, which is an adequate time period that allows for detection of trends and the subspecies response to appropriate conservation actions.

The Florida sandhill crane’s potential future condition is that the projected habitat suitability and population changes is attributable to development and changes in environmental factors that are not likely to greatly reduce the existing population. Our analysis suggests that under the different scenarios that are most likely for the future, Florida sandhill cranes will continue to occupy the current range albiet as a smaller population than current conditions.

Resiliency—Continuation of current conditions (abundance and impacts to resource needs) or slightly deteriorated conditions is likely. Continued loss, conversation, or degradation of the suitable habitat may coincide with lower abundance across the subspecies’ range. Breeding conditions are expected to be adequate to ensure reproductive success, in part due to the subspecies’ demonstrated ability to use suboptimal habitat (e.g., agricultural and recreation areas). No portions of the subspecies range are predicted to become extirpated.

Representation—Current levels of representation will likely be retained (i.e., remain extant throughout its range), with potential of a decrease in productivity and possibly recruitment specifically during prolonged drought conditions. The population stronghold in central Florida is predicted to remain resilient, although the northern portion of the range may become increasingly isolated from the core in the long-term. Additional conservation and best management practices of suitable habitat are expected across the Florida sandhill crane’s range, including in agricultural and suburban landscapes that harbor the subspecies’ resource needs.

Redundancy—Florida sandhill cranes will likely maintain a high level of redundancy as one large, wide-spread population across peninsular Florida, from the Okefenokee Swamp to the Everglades. The large extent of the range and the core of the population in central Florida are predicted to have high resilience but possibly fewer individuals.

In summary, the primary threats to the Florida sandhill crane include habitat loss/conversion/degradation, changing climate conditions (drought and precipitation-timing and heavy rain events), and mortalities resulting from predation, collisions, or human interactions/nest disturbances. The most significant threat for the long-term persistence of Florida sandhill crane is loss, conversion, or degradation of suitable habitat. Suitable habitat has been lost historically impacted and is expected to be lost or converted into the future. However, the Florida sandhill crane continues to currently occupy its historical range, and is also expected

to in the future albeit as a smaller (i.e., less abundant) population than current conditions. Its demonstrated ability to adapt to use agricultural and suburban habitats (e.g., rangelands, pastures, croplands, sod farms, golf courses, recreational areas, suburban neighborhoods) for breeding, nesting, and feeding activities help ensure its resiliency into the future. Although drought, precipitation changes/events, and direct mortalities will play a role on the subspecies’ resource needs and reproductive success, the best available information suggests that any impacts are affecting the subspecies at the individual level as opposed to the population/rangewide level both currently and in the future.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION ...... 13 1.1 Subspecies Basics ...... 13 1.2 Taxonomy ...... 14 1.3 Methodology and Data ...... 16 CHAPTER 2 – FLORIDA SANDHILL CRANE ECOLOGY ...... 20 2.1 Physical Description ...... 20 2.2 Range ...... 21 2.3 Habitat ...... 23 2.4 Life History ...... 25 2.5 Diet ...... 27 2.6 Home Range and Territory Size ...... 27 2.7 Dispersal ...... 28 2.8 Summary of Ecological Needs ...... 28 CHAPTER 3 – FLORIDA SANDHILL CRANE CURRENT CONDITIONS--DISTRIBUTION, ABUNDANCE AND FACTORS INFLUENCING VIABILITY ...... 30 3.1 Range and Distribution ...... 31 3.2 Abundance ...... 33 3.2.1 Population Trends ...... 35 3.3 Factors Influencing the Viability of Florida Sandhill Cranes ...... 38 3.3.1 Habitat Loss/Conversion/Degradation ...... 40 3.3.1 Summary—Habitat Loss/Conversion/Degradation ...... 44 3.3.2 Changing Climate Conditions ...... 45 3.3.3 Mortalities—Predation, Collisions, and Disturbance ...... 49 3.4 Conservation Actions ...... 53 3.4.1 Conservation Lands ...... 54 3.4.2 Summary— Conservation Actions ...... 56 3.5 Summary—Factors Influencing the Viability of Florida Sandhill Cranes ...... 57 3.5.1 Resiliency ...... 59 3.5.2 Representation ...... 60 3.5.3 Redundancy ...... 60

CHAPTER 4 – FUTURE CONDITION SCENARIOS ...... 62 4.1 Introduction ...... 62 4.2 Future Scenarios ...... 62 4.2.1 Development—Future Impacts ...... 63 4.2.2 Precipitation and Heavy Rain Events—Future Impacts ...... 67 4.2.3 Drought—Future Impacts ...... 68 4.3 Scenario 1 ...... 69 4.4 Scenario 2 ...... 70 4.5 Scenario 3 ...... 71 CHAPTER 5 – SYNTHESIS ...... 72 REFERENCES ...... 74 APPENDIX A. OTHER FLORIDA SANDHILL CRANE GRAPHICS...... 81

LIST OF FIGURES, TABLES, AND APPENDIX FIGURES

Figure 1-1. Florida sandhill cranes. Figure 1-2. Florida sandhill crane breeding range map, Georgia and Florida Figure 1-3. The three analysis steps in a Species Status Assessment. Figure 2-1. Florida sandhill crane pair with two older chicks. Figure 2-2. Current breeding range by county of the Florida sandhill cranes in southern Georgia and Florida. Figure 2-3. (a) Nesting Florida sandhill crane. (b) Foraging adult and young chick. (c) Foraging family group. Figure 2-4. Florida sandhill cranes using pastures, golf courses, and urban areas. Figure 2-5. Life cycle diagram of the Florida sandhill crane. Figure 2-6. Incubating Florida sandhill crane and hatchling. Figure 2-7. Resource needs of the Florida sandhill crane. Figure 3-1. Sandhill crane range map. 1) Midcontinental; 2) Rocky Mountain; 3) Eastern Flyway; 4) Pacific Flyway; 5) Central Valley; 6) Mississippi; 7) Florida; 8) Cuba. Figure 3-2. Florida sandhill crane occurrence, breeding, and suitable habitat range map, Georgia and Florida. Figure 3-3. Temporal trend of Florida sandhill crane abundance in Florida, 1966–2016. Figure 3-4. Map of Florida Breeding Bird Atlas Surveys (BBA 1 1986–1991 and BBA 2 2011– 2015). Figure 3-5. Factors influencing Florida sandhill crane habitat and demographics. Figure 3-6. Florida sandhill cranes in natural, rural, agricultural, golf course and suburban habitats.

Figure 3-7. Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat by percentage of total acreage within each county in Georgia and Florida. Figure 3-8. Florida’s annual observed precipitation and extreme precipitation events, 1895–2009. Figure 3-9. Florida sandhill crane foraging along the edge of open and woody habitat. Figure 3-10. Vehicle collision mortality risks and marked transmission lines. Figure 3-11. Map of conservation lands and suitable habitat for Florida sandhill cranes in Florida and Georgia, including Federal, State, local, and privately-owned areas. Figure 3-12. Map of Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat and the Everglades Headwaters NWR and Conservation Area located within the core of Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat. Figure 4-1. Map of Florida’s developed lands and Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat by current conditions, 50-year (2070) projection of development with conservation, and 50-year (2070) projection based on current trends. Figure 4-2. Florida sandhill crane adult and hatchlings. Figure 4-3. Florida sandhill crane and hatchling. Figure 4-4. Adult Florida sandhill crane. Figure 4-5. Adult Florida sandhill cranes. Figure 4-6. Adult and hatchling Florida sandhill cranes.

Table 1-1. Taxonomic Chart—Florida sandhill crane. Table 3-1. Population size estimates of Florida sandhill cranes, 1970–2017. Table 3-2. Florida sandhill crane population trends 1970–2016. Table 3-3. Current risk level of the threat of Habitat Loss/Conversion/Degradation to the Florida sandhill crane. Table 3-4. Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat. Table 3-5. Sea level rise worst-case scenario and loss of Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat. Table 3-6. Current risk level of the threat of changing climate conditions to the Florida sandhill crane. Table 3-7. Current risk level of predation, collisions, and human nest disturbance to the Florida sandhill crane. Table 3-8. FWC conservation actions from the Florida Sandhill Crane Species Action Plan. Table 3-9. Current conditions in regards to resiliency, representation, and redundancy. Table 4-1. Future scenarios for the Florida sandhill crane. Table 4-2. Model calculations of suitable habitat changes with various development scenarios. Table 4-3. Rainfall simulations using the CMIP5 models for regions within Florida and Georgia. Table 5-1. Predicted response of Florida Sandhill Crane population under three scenarios.

Appendix Figure 1. Breeding Bird Survey route-specific population trends of Florida sandhill cranes during the 1966–2016. Appendix Figure 2. Breeding Bird Survey (1966–2016) Florida sandhill crane routes surveyed and proportion of routes with cranes by year. Appendix Figure 3. Fall recruitment of Florida sandhill cranes on two roadsides surveys as a function of the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Appendix Figure 4. Map of Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat (FWC 2016b) and current Florida development. Appendix Figure 5. Map of Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat (FWC 2016b) with current and future projections of Florida development. Appendix Figure 6. Future wildfire susceptibility based upon climate projections. Appendix Figure 7. Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat and proximity to all Federal, State, County, local, and private conservation lands. Appendix Figure 8. Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat by Florida and Georgia Counties and percent of suitable habitat located within a county. Appendix Figure 9. Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat and proximity to USFWS National Wildlife Refuges.

LIST OF ACRONYMS

ACT Endangered Species Act

BBA Breeding Bird Atlas

BBS Breeding Bird Survey

BMP Best Management Practices

BNA Birds of North America

CBD Center for Biological Diversity

CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5

DNA deoxyribonucleic acid

DNR [Georgia] Department of Natural Resources

DOD Department of Defense

DSL [Florida] Division of State Lands

FDACS Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services

FDEP Florida Department of Environmental Protection

FNAI Florida Natural Areas Inventory

FR Federal Register

FOS Florida Ornithological Society

FWC Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission

GIS Geographic Information System

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

NCA National Climate Assessment

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NRCS Natural Resources Conservation Service

NWR National Wildlife Refuge

Service U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

SSA Species Status Assessment

USGS United States Geological Survey

WMA Wildlife Management Area

WMD Water Management District

CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION

We, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service), were petitioned by the Center for Biological Diversity (CBD) to list the Florida sandhill crane (Antigone canadensis pratensis) as an endangered or threatened species under the Endangered Species Act of 1973, as amended (Act), as a part of a 2010 petition to list 404 aquatic, riparian, and wetland species in the southeastern United States (CBD 2010, pp. 569–573). On September 27, 2011, we found that the petition presented substantial scientific or commercial information indicating that listing the Florida sandhill crane may be warranted (76 FR 59836); substantial findings were made for the other species in this same Federal Register notice, although analyses and findings for those other species are addressed separately.

The Species Status Assessment (SSA) framework (Service 2016, entire) is intended to be an in- depth review of the species’ biology and threats, an evaluation of its biological status, and an assessment of the resources and conditions needed to maintain long-term viability. The intent is for the SSA Report to be easily updated as new information becomes available and to support all functions of the Endangered Species Program from Candidate Assessment to Listing to Consultations to Recovery. As such, the SSA Report is a living document that may be used to inform decision making under the Act, such as listing, recovery, Section 7, Section 10, and reclassification decisions (the former four decision types are only relevant should the species warrant listing under the Act).

Importantly, the SSA Report is not a decisional document; rather, it provides a review of available information strictly related to the biological status of the Florida sandhill crane. The listing decision will be made by us after reviewing this document and all relevant laws, regulations, and policies, and the results of a proposed decision will be announced in the Federal Register, with appropriate opportunities for public input.

1.1 Subspecies Basics

The sandhill crane is the most common of the world’s crane species, which include six subspecies that reside throughout North America, populations of which have historically been delineated based on their breeding areas. The Florida sandhill crane (Figure 1-1) is one of three non- migratory subspecies. This subspecies is known to range from southern Georgia in the Okefenokee Swamp vicinity south to the Everglades (Figure 1-2) (Walkinshaw 1973, p. 130; Stys 1997, pp. 2–4). Florida sandhill cranes have the largest and most stable population of the non-migratory Figure 1-1. Florida sandhill sandhill cranes (Nesbitt and Hatchitt 2008). cranes. Photo credit: Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation (FWC) Commission.

Figure 1-2. Florida sandhill crane breeding range map, Georgia and Florida (Source: Meine and Archibald 1996a, p. 109) and most abundant in the region of Florida’s Desoto Prairie and Kissimee Prairie (shaded and hatched) (Meine and Archibald 1996a, p. 111).

1.2 Taxonomy

Antigone canadensis pratensis was first classified as the Florida sandhill crane by F.A.A. Meyer in 1794. It was known to be resident in southeast Georgia and south to central Florida [type locality = Paynes Prairie, Alachua Co., Florida] (Brodkorb 1955, p. 207).

Six subspecies are currently recognized following Johnson et al. (2005) and Dickinson and Remsen (2013), although some researchers (Rhymer et al. 2001; Glenn et al. 2002; Petersen et al. 2001, 2003; Jones 2003; Henkel 2009) have questioned the validity of certain subspecies. Sandhill cranes remained in the genus Grus (family Gruidae; subfamily Gruinae) until 2010. A relatively recent classification change resulted from a mitochondrial deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) analysis that identified four clades (groups of organisms believed to have evolved from a common ancestor) within the subfamily Gruinae, and showed the clade that includes canadensis is not a sister to Grus (Krajewski et al. 2010, pp. 447–449). Thus, canadensis and relatives are now classified in a separate genus, Antigone (Table 1-1) (Chesser et al. 2016, p. 550). Within Antigone, canadensis is the basal species (i.e., the species that gives rise to derived species); other species of Antigone are A. vipio (white-naped crane, of temperate east Asia), A. rubicunda (Brolga, of Australia), and A. antigone (sarus crane, of India and southeast Asia).

Table 1-1. Taxonomic Chart—Florida sandhill crane.

Kingdom Phylum Class Order Family Subfamily Animalia Chordata Aves Gruiformes Gruidae Gruinae

Genus Species Subspecies Antigone canadensis pratensis

As outlined in Gerber et al. (2014), there are three non-migratory subspecies of sandhill cranes:

 Antigone canadensis pratensis (F.A.A. Meyer, 1794), the Florida sandhill crane.  A. c. pulla (Aldrich, 1972), the Mississippi sandhill crane. Resident on the Gulf slope of Mississippi.  A. c. nesiotes (Bangs and Zappey, 1905), the Cuban sandhill crane. Resident on Cuba and the Isle of Pines (Isla de la Jeventud).

...and three migratory subspecies of sandhill cranes:

 A. c. tabida (Peters, 1925), the greater sandhill crane. Includes G. fusca Vieillot, 1817, and G. c. woodi (Bailey, 1930). Breeds from southwest British Columbia, including Vancouver Island, east to the western Great Lakes and south locally to Nevada, Colorado, and Tennessee; winters in the United States from California east to Georgia and north Florida.  A. c. canadensis (Linnaeus, 1758), the lesser sandhill crane. Includes G. fusca Vieillot, 1817; G. poliophaea Wagler, 1827; G. cinerea longirostris Temminck and Schlegel, 1849; G. fraterculus Cassin, 1858; G. schlegelii Blyth, 1873; G. c. mexicana Bryant, 1889; and G. niediecki Reichenow, 1906. Breeds in northeast Siberia and northern Alaska east across arctic Canada.  A. c. rowani (Walkinshaw, 1965), the Canadian sandhill crane. Breeds in subarctic and boreal Canada from northern British Columbia and southern Northwest Territories east to north Ontario; winters in the southwest United States east to Texas and south to north- central Mexico.

It has been suggested that the non-migratory Florida sandhill crane and the migratory greater sandhill crane are the same genetically, whereas some individuals choose to migrate and others do not (Rhymer et al. 2001, pp. 215–217); an ecological term known as partial migration. Sandhill crane subspecies are identified on the basis of body size, shape, dorsal color, and pattern of the red on the crown and face. Perhaps the most important avenue for future research on sandhill cranes is the continued application of modern genetic tools to investigate questions regarding relationships between subspecies and populations (Gerber et al. 2014, Priorities for Future Research).

1.3 Methodology and Data

This report is a summary of the SSA analysis, which entails three iterative assessment stages (Figure 1-3):

Species Ecology (Needs). The SSA begins with a compilation of the best available biological information on the species (life history and habitat) and its ecological needs at the individual, population, and rangewide (species) levels based on how environmental factors are understood to act on the species and its habitat.

 Individual level: These resource needs are those life history characteristics that influence the successful completion of each life stage. In other words, these characteristics are survival and reproduction needs that make the subspecies Figure 1-3. The three analysis sensitive or resilient to particular natural or steps in a Species Status anthropogenic influences. Assessment.

 Population level: These are components of the Florida sandhill crane’s life history profile that describe the resources, circumstances, and demographics that most influence resiliency of the population.

 Rangewide level: This is an exploration of what influences redundancy and representation for the Florida sandhill crane. This requires an examination of the Florida sandhill crane’s evolutionary history and historical distribution to understand how the subspecies functions across its range.

We researched and evaluated the best available scientific and commercial information on Florida sandhill crane life history. This included biological considerations, reproductive strategy, interactions, habitat requirements, and any other information that demonstrated how Florida sandhill cranes, at each life stage, respond to natural and anthropogenic influences. To identify population- or rangewide-level needs, we convened an expert meeting working group (Service 2017a), and used published literature, unpublished reports, and data from current survey and taxonomic research projects.

To determine distribution and abundance, we conducted a literature review. We also relied on the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission’s (FWC) recent biological review, conservation planning, and document prepared for a State of Florida listed species. In 2010, the FWC directed their staff to evaluate all species that are State listed as Threatened or Species of Special Concern that had not been reviewed in the previous 10 years. From this evaluation, the FWC published a Biological Status Review (FWC 2011), Species Action Plan (FWC 2013a), and Species Conservation Measures and Permitting Guidelines (FWC 2016a).

Current Species Condition. The SSA describes the current condition of the Florida sandhill cranes habitat and demographics, and the probable explanations for past and ongoing changes in abundance and distribution within the subspecies’ ecological settings (i.e., areas representative of the geographic, genetic, or life history variation across the subspecies’ range).

We considered the Florida sandhill crane distribution, abundance, and those factors currently influencing the viability of the subspecies. We identified the historical and current distribution and abundance information, and examined existing factors that are negatively and positively influencing the subspecies. Each threat was considered in terms of the scale, intensity, and duration and the impacts on the population and habitat across its life history stages. The magnitude and scale of potential impacts to Florida sandhill cranes or their habitat by a given threat are described using a High-Moderate-Low category scale.

Given that Florida sandhill cranes are represented by a single population throughout its range (see Section 3.1, below), we narrowed this population into three geographic categories to better describe the magnitude and extent of the factors influencing the species viability. These three categories within the Florida sandhill crane’s range are: (1) Public managed lands, (2) private lands--ranch/farm/pasture/cropland, and (3) private lands--rural/suburban. When describing the magnitude and extent of the various factors that may influence the subspecies viability, we used High-Moderate-Low descriptors, which are described in detail in the introductory text of Chapter 3.

Future Species Condition. Lastly, the SSA forecasts a species’ response to probable future scenarios of environmental conditions and conservation efforts. As a result, the SSA characterizes the species’ ability to sustain populations in the wild over time (viability) based on the best scientific understanding of current and future abundance and distribution within the species ecological settings.

To examine the potential future condition of the Florida sandhill crane, we developed three future scenarios that focus on a range of conditions based on projections for land development, changing climate conditions, other potential threats, and conservation actions. The range of what may happen in each scenario is described based on the current condition and how resilience, representation, and redundancy are expected to change. We chose 50 years as the time frame for our analysis because it is within the range of the available models for Florida development and climate change forecasts. The scenarios are the most probable consideration of the threats and their sources that have the potential to impact the subspecies at the population or rangewide scales in the future, including potential cumulative impacts.

For the purpose of this assessment, we generally define viability as the ability of the Florida sandhill crane to sustain a resilient population within peninsular Florida and the Okefenokee Swamp area of southern Georgia over time. Using the SSA framework (Figure 1-3, above), we consider what the subspecies needs to maintain viability by characterizing the status of the subspecies in terms of its resiliency, redundancy, and representation (Service 2016, entire; Wolf et al. 2015, entire).

 Resiliency is assessed at the level of populations and reflects a species’ (or subspecies’) ability to withstand stochastic events (events arising from random factors). Demographic measures that reflect population health, such as fecundity, survival, and population size, are the metrics used to evaluate resiliency. Resilient populations are better able to withstand disturbances such as random fluctuations in birth rates (demographic stochasticity), variations in rainfall (environmental stochasticity), and the effects of anthropogenic activities.

 Representation is assessed at the species’ (or subspecies’) level and characterizes the ability of a species to adapt to changing environmental conditions. Metrics that speak to a species’ (or subspecies’) adaptive potential, such as genetic and ecological variability, can be used to assess representation. Representation is directly correlated to a species’ (or subspecies’) ability to adapt to changes (natural or human-caused) in its environment.

 Redundancy is also assessed at the level of the species (or subspecies) and reflects a species’ (or subspecies’) ability to withstand catastrophic events (such as a rare destructive natural event or episode involving many populations). Redundancy is about spreading the risk of such an event across multiple, resilient populations. As such, redundancy can be measured by the number and distribution of resilient populations across the range of the species (or subspecies).

To evaluate the current and future viability of the Florida sandhill crane, we assessed a range of conditions to characterize the subspecies’ resiliency, representation, and redundancy. This SSA Report provides a thorough account of known biology and natural history, and assesses the risk of threats and limiting factors affecting the future viability of the subspecies. Throughout this analysis when data were lacking for the Florida sandhill crane, we used information from other closely related subspecies of sandhill cranes (see Section 1.2).

This SSA Report for the Florida sandhill crane includes: (1) An Introduction, including recent taxonomic changes (Chapter 1); (2) A description of Florida sandhill crane ecology, including the subspecies’ resource needs as examined at the individual-, population-, and rangewide-levels (Chapter 2); (3) Characterization of the historical and current distribution of Florida sandhill cranes across their range (Chapter 3); (4) An assessment of the current abundance and demographic conditions across its range (Chapter 3); (5) An assessment of the current factors that negatively and positively influence the subspecies, and the degree to which the various factors influence its viability (Chapter 3); (6) Descriptions of future scenarios, including an evaluation of those stressors that may influence the subspecies in the future at the population- or rangewide-levels (Chapter 4); (7) A synopsis of resiliency, representation, and redundancy given the potential future conditions (Chapter 4); and (8) An overall synthesis of this report (Chapter 5).

This document is a compilation of the best available scientific and commercial information (and associated uncertainties regarding that information) used to assess the viability of the Florida sandhill crane currently and into the future.

Status:  Listed as State Threatened on FWC’s Endangered and Threatened Species List.

Current Protections:

 68A–27.003(2)(a), Florida Administrative Code (F.A.C.), No person shall take, possess, or sell any of the endangered or threatened species included in this subsection, or parts thereof or their nests or eggs except as allowed by specific federal or state permit or authorization.  68A–27.001(4), F.A.C., Take – to harass, harm, pursue, hunt, shoot, wound, kill, trap, capture, or collect, or to attempt to engage in such conduct. The term “harm” in the definition of take means an act which actually kills or injures fish or wildlife. Such act may include significant habitat modification or degradation where it actually kills or injures wildlife by significantly impairing essential behavioral patterns, including breeding, feeding or sheltering. The term “harass” in the definition of take means an intentional or negligent act or omission which creates the likelihood of injury to wildlife by annoying it to such an extent as to significantly disrupt normal behavioral patterns which include, but are not limited to, breeding, feeding or sheltering.  68A–27.007(2), F.A.C., permit requirements for the taking of a State-designated Threatened species which provides criteria for permitting intentional and incidental take.  Intentional feeding of sandhill cranes is prohibited under Rule 68A–4.001(6) F.A.C.  Florida sandhill cranes, active nests, eggs, and young also are protected under the Federal Migratory Bird Treaty Act, state Rule 68A–16.001, F.A.C., and state Rule 68A–4.001, F.A.C.

CHAPTER 2 – FLORIDA SANDHILL CRANE ECOLOGY

This chapter provides a summary of basic ecological information about the Florida sandhill crane, including its physical description, range, habitat use, and various life history traits such as reproduction, diet, population structure, etc. We evaluated these life history characteristics to determine the specific biological or environmental resources that are relevant for Florida sandhill cranes to complete their life cycle and ensure survival into the future. This information is important for a thorough understanding of the resources the subspecies needs in order to: (1) Carry out individual life history needs, (2) have the population persist over time such that it can withstand stochastic events, and (3) have a sufficient healthy population distributed such that catastrophic events will not cause the subspecies to go extinct and will also allow it to adapt to changing environmental conditions. These biological and environmental resource needs are later used to compare against relevant influences (see Chapters 3 and 4), which helps provide a risk profile for the Florida sandhill crane.

Additional ecological information on sandhill cranes is detailed and available in the Birds of North America (BNA): Sandhill Cranes (Gerber et al. 2014, entire), including (but not limited to) appearance, systematics, distribution, habitat, diet, behavior, and breeding.

2.1 Physical Description

Sandhill cranes are graceful, heavy-bodied birds that are distinguished by their long neck, beak, and legs (Figure 2-1). Both males and females have gray or rust-colored plumage that contrasts with a red crown, the latter of which is present on all but first-year birds (Gerber et al. 2014, no page). The Florida sandhill crane is one of six subspecies, each of which are differentiated based on body size, shape, dorsal color, and pattern of the red on the crown and face (Gerber et al. 2014, Appearance section). An adult sandhill crane ranges in height from 3.2 to 3.9 feet (ft) (1.0 to 1.2 meters (m)) (with males usually weighing more than females. Wingspan is 5.9 to 6.5 ft (1.8 to 2.0 m) depending on the subspecies (Gerber et al. 2014, Appearance section). Sandhill cranes have a distinctive, rattling call that can be heard from great distances, in addition to soft purrs and other vocalizations.

Figure 2-1. Florida sandhill crane pair with two older chicks. Photo credit: FWC.

There are two subspecies of sandhill cranes that occur in Florida: the non-migratory Florida sandhill crane (Antigone canadensis pratensis), which this report details, and the migratory greater sandhill crane (A. c. tabida) that winters in Florida generally between the months of October and early March (FWC 2016a, p. 1). These two subspecies cannot be distinguished except those that are observed from April through September are assumed to be the non- migratory (resident) Florida sandhill crane subspecies (FWC 2016a, p. 1).

2.2 Range

Florida sandhill cranes are known to range from the Okefenokee Swamp in southern Georgia south to the Everglades (Walkinshaw 1973, p. 130; Stys 1997, pp. 2–4) (Figure 2-2); however, most birds are known to reside in peninsular Florida from Alachua County in the north to the northern edge of the Everglades in the south (FWC 2013a, pp. 1–2). Large concentrations of the subspecies reside on the Kissimmee prairie (Osceola County), the Desoto prairie (DeSoto County) (Nesbitt and Williams 1990, entire), and Okeechobee County (Dellinger 2018, pers. comm.) and the Okefenokee Swamp (Charlton, Ware, and Clinch counties) in Georgia (Bennett 1989a, entire).

Figure 2-2. Current breeding range by county of the Florida sandhill cranes in southern Georgia and Florida.

2.3 Habitat

The single, most important factor regulating all species of sandhill cranes is habitat availability (Gerber et al. 2014, Demography and Populations section). Florida sandhill cranes rely on open, shallow herbaceous wetlands (Figure 2-3) within or adjacent to open grasslands, prairies, or improved pastures. The wetland habitats are used for foraging, roosting, and nesting, and are primarily freshwater marshes dominated by species such as (but not limited to) pickerelweed (Pontedaria cordata), maidencane (Panicum hemitomon), and smartweeds (Polygonum spp.) (Nesbitt and Williams 1990, p. 92; Wood and Nesbitt 2001, pp. 112–113). Nests are constructed with available plant stems and twigs from the immediate surroundings (Gerber et al. 2014, Breeding section) and are placed in sparsely vegetated areas within 984 ft (300 m) of the water’s edge (Gerber et al. 2014, Breeding section). Nests have also been documented in densely vegetated marsh areas, e.g., pickerelweed marshes (Nesbitt 1996, p. 222). Logically, roost and nest locations will vary from year to year because of varying water levels (Stys 1997, p. 10); desertion of nests often follows changes in water levels (e.g., more than 2 inches (in) (5 centimeters (cm)) of rainfall within a 24-hour period) (Nesbitt 1988, p. 759). Nest sites and nighttime roosting site choices vary depending on seasonal water levels, but are typically Figure 2-3. (a) Nesting Florida sandhill characterized by standing water that is 4 to 13 in crane. (b) Foraging adult and young (10 to 33 cm) deep surrounded by deeper water or large expanses of marsh (Bennett 1988, pp. 124– chick. (c) Foraging family group. Photos 125; Tacha et al. 1992, pp. 5-6; Stys 1997, p. 5). credit: FWC. Additionally, Florida sandhill cranes may build accessory nests to be used as rest sites for the young during the day or for brooding during night; these usually occur within 150–160 ft (45–49 m) of their primary nest, but can vary depending on proximity of adjacent suitable habitat (Stys 1997, p. 6; Wood and Nesbitt 2001, pp. 113–114). One study suggests that Florida sandhill cranes using wetlands larger than 123 acres (ac) (50 hectares (ha)) tend to nest significantly later during a given year as compared to those nesting in wetlands that are less than 123 ac (50 ha) (Dwyer and Tanner 1992, p. 25). Increasing human population and development pressures have caused Florida sandhill cranes to nest in ditches, artificial ponds/pools, and in other improbable sites (Meine and Archibald 1996a, p. 113).

A variety of adjacent, open upland habitats, and the transition areas between wetland and upland habitats, are used by Florida sandhill cranes. It is critical to have the upland habitat areas adjacent to the roosting, foraging, and nesting habitat to allow young, flightless Florida sandhill cranes in their first several months of life—70 days after hatching (Nesbitt 1996, pp. 223–224)— to walk to and use the upland foraging habitat until they are capable of flying (FWC 2016a, p. 2). These upland habitat areas include grasslands, emergent palustrine wetlands (i.e., nontidal wetlands dominated by trees, shrubs, persistent emergents, emergent mosses or lichens, and all such wetlands that occur in tidal areas where salinity due to ocean-derived salts is below 0.5 percent), prairies, open pine forests, pastures, and forest-pasture transition areas (Nesbitt and Williams 1990, pp. 94–95; Tacha et al. 1992, p. 6; FWC 2016a, p. 1). Forest-pasture transition areas, emergent wetlands, and in general the forested edges surrounding both wetland and upland habitats are especially helpful during hot weather conditions by providing midday escapes for loafing (shade) and as a source of mast during autumn (Bishop 1988, p. 155; Tacha et al. 1992, p. 6; Nesbitt and Williams 1990, p. 95; Gerber et al. 2014, Distribution, Migration and Habitat section). Florida sandhill cranes are also known to feed in human-manipulated environments year-round, such as (but not limited to) agricultural lands (sod farms, ranchlands, improved pastures, feed lots, dairy farms, croplands), golf courses, airports, and suburban areas (Figure 2- 4) (Tacha et al. 1992, p. 6; Florida Natural Areas Inventory (FNAI) 2001, p. 2; Wood and Nesbitt 2001, p. 112; Gerber et al. 2014, Distribution, Migration and Habitat section).

Figure 2-4. Florida sandhill cranes using pastures, golf courses, and urban areas. Photos credit: FWC.

Open pasture areas used by Florida sandhill cranes include a variety of nonnative plants, such as the following examples in the Okeechobee area pastures (Nesbitt and Williams 1990, p. 93): Bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon), bahia grass (Paspalum notatum), carpetgrass (Axonopus affinis), and live oak (Quercus virginiana) as a predominant overstory, edge species.

Potentially suitable habitat areas that harbor dense or woody vegetation are avoided by Florida sandhill cranes (Stys 1997, p. 3), even if they contain suitable prey sources. For example, Florida sandhill cranes used only 5 percent of the available densely forested habitat in a home range and habitat use study in Alachua, Levy, Marion, and Putnam counties in north-central Florida (Nesbitt and Williams 1990, pp. 94–95). Also of note, Florida sandhill cranes in the Okefenokee Swamp generally prefer less wooded herbaceous marsh areas and rarely use the drier, upland habitats (Bennett 1989b, p. 65).

Overall, preferred Florida sandhill crane habitat includes both the roosting/foraging/nesting wetlands and the upland foraging habitat, where the majority of vegetation is 20 in (50 cm) or less in height (Stys 1997, p. 11). Both water depth and seasonal food availability are the primary factors that determine seasonal shifts in habitat use (Bennett 1988, pp. 122–125).

2.4 Life History

Sandhill cranes are a long-lived species that are monogamous with low annual reproductive potential and extended parental care behavior (Wood and Nesbitt 2001, p. 113). Breeding occurs from December through August (see life cycle diagram, Figure 2-4) beginning at age 3, although reproduction is usually not successful until age 5 (Nesbitt 1992, pp. 573, 575). Breeding pairs home ranges may overlap with adjacent pairs but nesting territories are aggressively defended (Wood and Nesbitt 2001, p. 113; Gerber et al. 2014, Breeding section). Pairs will lay one to three (usually two) eggs in a nest and accessory nests or platforms are also built (Wood and Nesbitt 2001, p. 113; FWC 2013a, p. 1). Egg laying generally starts earlier in the southern portion of the range and peaks from late February through April, but can extend as late as June if climate and habitat conditions are favorable (Wood and Nesbitt 2001, p. 113). Cranes in the Okefenokee Swamp nest 3 to 4 weeks later than the population in central Florida (Bennett and Bennett 1990, p. 226). Both males and females incubate the eggs for 29 to 32 days after laying (Gerber et al. 2014, Breeding section), and the hatchlings are capable of leaving nests (mobile) within 24 hours after hatching (Figure 2-5) (Wood and Nesbitt 2001, p. 114; Gerber et al. 2014, Breeding section). Reproductive success averages 0.35 young per year raised to the age of independence (Nesbitt 1992, pp. 575–576). Survival of young to independence is 56 percent, and should initial clutches fail (e.g., predation, nest flooding), renesting occurs within 18 to 20 days and up to three times in a given breeding season (Wood and Nesbitt 2001, p. 114; Gerber et al. 2014, Breeding section). Once mobile, close parental care of the chicks (brooding) occurs up to 3 weeks after hatch (Gerber et al. 2014, Breeding section). Flight capability (fledging) generally occurs at 75 days after hatch (Gerber et al. 2014, Breeding section). Immature cranes disperse from the family at approximately 10 months (Wood and Nesbitt 2001, p. 114). Specifically for Florida sandhill cranes, the mean age of independence is 295 days (range 248–321 days; n = 16; Nesbitt 1992, p. 575).

Figure 2-5. Life cycle diagram of the Florida sandhill crane, based on life history characteristics as outlined in Gerber et al. 2014. All stages rely on all resource needs outlined in Section 2.8, below.

Figure 2-6. Incubating Florida sandhill crane and hatchling. Photo credit: FWC.

After juveniles fledge from the family unit (approximately 30–60 days before the parents begin to lay their next clutch), they become strong fliers and begin congregating into non-breeding flocks, which typically number two to five individuals and persist for up to 2–3 years before pairing and establishing territories (Gerber et al. 2014, Breeding section). First breeding or reproduction does not occur until 2–3 years; the mean age of first successful reproduction is 5.2 years (Gerber et al. 2014, Breeding section). Annual reproductive success averages 0.35 young per year raised to the age of independence (Nesbitt 1992, pp. 575–576); however, nesting success in the Okefenokee Swamp is lower than that reported for other sandhill cranes due to nest placement typically near predatory travel corridors (Bennett and Bennett 1990, p. 228).

Some survivorship and life span information is available for Florida sandhill cranes. The annual survival rate of adults has generally been unknown, although preliminary information suggest Florida sandhill crane annual survivability is high (0.884 for males and 0.918 for females) (S.A. Nesbitt and C.T. Moore, unpl. data in Gerber et al. 2014, Demography and Population section). Survival between post-hatching and fledgling is poorly understood but hypothesized to be affected primarily by predation (Gerber et al. 2014, Demography and Population, and Behavior sections). The maximum age in the wild for Florida sandhill cranes is 21.6 years (Gerber et al. 2014, Demography and Population section), although average life expectancy for those birds that survive is 7 years (Nesbitt 1992, pp. 576–577; Wood and Nesbitt 2001, p. 114; S.A. Nesbitt and C.T. Moore, unpl. data in Gerber et al. 2014, Demography and Population section).

2.5 Diet

All sandhill crane species are omnivorous, opportunistic feeders. They capture food from the surface or subsurface of the ground, and from the firm bottoms under the water surface of the marshes/lakes they inhabit (Gerber et al. 2014, Feeding section). Their diet includes a variety of plant material, aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates, and small vertebrates (Walkinshaw 1973, pp. 105–106; Gerber et al. 2014, Feeding section) such as (but not limited to) seeds, grass shoots, berries, lichens, crayfish, insects, small mammals (e.g., mice), and eggs/nestling birds (Stys 1997, p. 4; Gerber et al. 2014, Feeding section). They can scratch the ground surface with their feet or probe with their bill to unearth food items such as bulbs and earthworms (e.g., Stys 1997, p. 4; Bennett 1978, pp. 61, 79). They are known to feed throughout their range on agricultural crops, such as cultivated grains, corn, and peanuts (Nesbitt 1996, p. 226; Gerber et al. 2014, Feeding section). Sandhill cranes consume primarily plant material during the breeding season, and have a diverse diet for the remainder of their life cycle that is dependent on the specific breeding area and nest site location (Gerber et al. 2014, Feeding section).

2.6 Home Range and Territory Size

Home ranges of Florida sandhill crane pairs usually overlap with adjacent pairs, and vary depending on location. The average home range size across the subspecies is approximately 1,100 ac (450 ha) (Wood and Nesbitt 2001, p. 113). An example of a small home range size is the Okefenokee Swamp, Georgia, recorded during 1985–87 at one-sixth the size of home ranges in north-central Florida (i.e., 230 ac (93 ha)) (Bennett 1989b, pp. 831–832; Nesbitt and Williams 1990, p. 94). Home ranges also vary between subadults and territorial pairs. Subadult home ranges tend to be largest during nesting and smallest during the post-nesting season, whereas

home ranges for territorial pairs tend to be largest during the pre-nesting season and reduced during the nesting and post-nesting seasons (Nesbitt and Williams 1990, p. 94).

Core nesting territory within a home range (i.e., the area defended by a pair for their exclusive use during nesting and brood rearing) is aggressively defended and varies in size across the subspecies range from approximately 300 to 625 ac (120 to 250 ha) (Wood and Nesbitt 2001, p. 113). Nesting territory size is 71 percent of the overall territory size of resident adult pairs (Nesbitt and Williams 1990, pp. 94–95). Regardless of the home range size for pairs of Florida sandhill cranes, nesting territory boundaries remain virtually unchanged over their lifespan (Nesbitt and Schwikert, unpubl. data in Gerber et al. 2014, Demography and Population Range section). Additionally, if adult pairs reside in poor or declining habitat, they are likely to leave their territories and move to better quality habitat in undefended areas with other cranes (Nesbitt and Williams 1990, pp. 95–96).

2.7 Dispersal

Female Florida sandhill cranes generally disperse greater distances than males. The female bird’s mean natal distance is 7.2 mi (11.58 km) (range 0.2 to 30 mi (0.4 to 48.3 km) and the male bird’s is 2.4 miles (mi) (3.94 kilometers (km)) (range 0.5 to 6 mi (0.8 to 9.6 km)) (Nesbitt et al. 2002, p. 350). This male philopatric dispersal behavior (i.e., tendency of a species to return to or remain near a particular site or area) results in a subspecies that is relatively slow to colonize new habitat areas that are greater than 6.2 to 12.4 mi (10 to 20 km) from occupied habitat areas (Nesbitt and Schwikert 2005, p. 330).

2.8 Summary of Ecological Needs

As defined earlier (Chapter 1), resiliency is the ability of Florida sandhill cranes to withstand stochastic disturbances; representation describes the ability of the subspecies to adapt to changing environmental conditions over time; and redundancy describes the ability of the subspecies to withstand catastrophic events. The Florida sandhill crane is represented by a single population (see Chapter 3 for current range and abundance information). Although redundancy can be measured by spreading the risk across multiple populations, a single, large population (spatial extent) also spreads the risk to minimize the potential loss from catastrophic events.

The most important ecological needs of the Florida sandhill crane are listed below and in Figure 2–6 (as summarized from the detailed ecological descriptions in Sections 2.3 and 2.5, above):

Figure 2-7. Resource needs of the Florida sandhill crane.

Individual Needs

 Open, shallow herbaceous wetlands for nesting, foraging and roosting with the majority of vegetation height equal to or less than 20 in (50 cm) and standing water with an average water depth of 4 to 13 in (10 to 33 cm).  Open upland habitats for foraging, including (but not limited to) grasslands, prairies, open pine forests, improved pastures, croplands, and some suburban landscapes, with the majority of vegetation height equal to or less than 20 in (50 cm).  Forested edges of both wetland and upland habitats to provide midday escapes (loafing) during hot weather conditions and mast during autumn.  A combination of various aquatic plants, aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates, and small vertebrates for feeding. Food items include (but are not limited to): seeds, grass shoots, bulbs, berries, lichens, crayfish, earthworms, insects, dragonflies, snakes, frogs, small mammals (e.g., mice), eggs/nestling birds, and some agricultural crops (e.g., cultivated grains, corn, peanuts).

Population and Rangewide Needs

 Configuration of nesting, foraging, and roosting wetland habitat such that they are adjacent, particularly for young, flightless sandhill cranes to walk between the wetlands and upland foraging habitat during their first 75, flightless days of life, and up to dispersal at 10 months of age.

CHAPTER 3 – FLORIDA SANDHILL CRANE CURRENT CONDITIONS-- DISTRIBUTION, ABUNDANCE AND FACTORS INFLUENCING VIABILITY

In this chapter, we consider the Florida sandhill crane distribution, abundance, and those factors currently influencing the viability of the subspecies. We first identify the subspecies historical and current distribution, and abundance information. Next, we examine existing factors that are negatively and positively influencing the subspecies (i.e., threats and existing voluntary or regulatory conservation efforts). Each threat is considered in terms of the scale, intensity, and duration, and the impacts it is having on the subspecies and habitat across its life history stages. Some threats may be affecting the subspecies at all life stages or all individuals or the population across the subspecies’ range, while others may be specifically affecting a single resilience factor, such as the amount of suitable habitat, or a specific life stage. Some threats, while present and acting on individuals of the subspecies, may not rise to the level of affecting the subspecies or even population(s). The magnitude and scale of potential impacts to Florida sandhill cranes or their habitat by a given threat are described using the following threat level category descriptions:

LOW

 The Florida Sandhill crane population is stable or increasing and is likely able to withstand stochastic events (drought and heavy rain events).  The Florida sandhill crane has high resilience when most (greater than 50 percent) breeding pairs are able to complete their life history functions, breed successfully, and recruitment is greater than 15 percent for a stable or growing population (Arnold et al. 2016, p. 472).  Conversion of ranch/farm/pasture/cropland is low, while acquisitions and conservation easements mitigate for losses or conversions. Suitable habitat is managed with prescribed fire and other best management practices (BMPs), and private ranch/farm/pasture/cropland are maintained at suitable levels through grazing and BMPs. Many land managers in suburban areas with nesting cranes are implementing conservation actions to minimize vehicular collision mortalities and human disturbances (or mortality) to individuals and nests (including eggs).

MODERATE

 Population trend information could indicate increasing, stable, or decreasing numbers, but can likely withstand some stochastic events or portions of population can withstand stochastic events (drought and heavy rain events).  The Florida sandhill crane has moderate resilience when some (33 to 50 percent) of the breeding pairs are able to complete their life history functions, successfully breed, and recruitment is 10 to 15 percent seen in Florida sandhill cranes (Cox et al. 2016, p. 11).  Conversion of ranch/farm/improved pasture/cropland is moderate, while acquisitions and conservation easements mitigate for some losses or conversions. A majority of the suitable habitat on conservation lands is managed with prescribed fire and other BMPs, and private ranch/farm/pasture/cropland are adequately maintained through grazing and BMPs. Some land managers in suburban areas with nesting cranes are implementing

conservation actions to minimize vehicular collision mortalities and human disturbances (or mortality) to individuals and nests (including eggs).

HIGH

 Population trend information suggests decreasing numbers and conditions are such that the subspecies is not likely able to withstand stochastic events (drought and heavy rain events).  The Florida sandhill crane has low resilience when only a few (less than 33 percent) of the breeding pairs can complete life history functions, only some or few successfully breed, and recruitment is less than 10 percent.  Conversion of ranch/farm/pasture/cropland is moderate to high, while acquisitions and conservation easements mitigate for some losses or conversions. Suitable habitat on conservation lands is not managed through prescribed fire or BMPs, contributing to overgrown wetlands and uplands. There are elevated levels of human impacts in urban areas where data suggest nesting and foraging habitat conditions are suboptimal. The best available information suggests vehicular collisions and human-caused nest disturbances are increasing or likely to increase, resulting in increased mortality to individuals and nests (including eggs).

Factors influencing current condition include both negative threats and beneficial conservation actions. We also consider potential cumulative effects of these factors on the subspecies’ viability. The overall current condition is expressed in terms of population resilience, and subspecies redundancy and representation.

3.1 Range and Distribution

Sandhill cranes are widely distributed across North America. Johnson et al. (2005, p. 43) indicate that the migratory and non-migratory sandhill crane breeding ranges were all likely contiguous. With reductions in numbers and distribution over the last two centuries, the five different subspecies’ ranges became fragmented with discrete breeding, migratory, wintering, and year- round ranges.

Figure 3-1. Sandhill crane range map (Jones et al. 2005b). 1) Midcontinental; 2) Rocky Mountain; 3) Eastern Flyway; 4) Pacific Flyway; 5) Central Valley; 6) Mississippi; 7) Florida; 8) Cuba.

Historically, non-migratory sandhill cranes occurred from the Texas coast through coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama through the panhandle of Florida into southern Georgia around the Okefenokee Swamp, and south through peninsula of Florida to the Everglades and into Cuba (Hunter et al. 2006, p. 37). Non-migratory sandhill cranes were possibly one population (Meine and Archibald 1996a, p. 111). Due to the loss of the Texas breeding range during the 19th Century, and extirpation from both Louisiana by 1910 and Alabama by the 1960’s, the western segment of the non-migratory sandhill cranes was narrowed to its present distribution in Jackson County, Mississippi, and the eastern segment’s range was narrowed down from southern Georgia south through peninsular Florida to the northern Everglades (Hunter et al. 2006, pp. 37–38) and Cuba.

The Florida sandhill crane currently ranges from southern Georgia in the Okefenokee Swamp vicinity south through peninsular Florida into the Everglades (Walkinshaw 1973, p. 130; Stys 1997, pp. 2–4; Wood and Nesbitt 2001, p. 108; FWC 2013a, p. 1) (Figure 3-2). They are less common in the northernmost and southernmost portions of the range (FWC 2011, p. 3). There are extensive habitat areas in central Florida including the Kissimmee and Desoto prairie regions, representing approximately 90 percent of the range (Figure 3-2); thus, a majority of the Florida sandhill crane population is located within central Florida from Alachua County to the northern edge of the Everglades (FWC 2013a, p. 1). Florida sandhill crane breeding has been documented

in 48 Florida and 4 Georgia counties since 1993 (Figure 3-2). Nesbitt and Hatchitt (2008, p. 41) estimated the area of occurrence in Florida to be 12,039 square miles (mi2) (31,181 square kilometers (km2) with an additional 665 mi2 (1,722 km2) of the Okefenokee Swamp in southern Georgia (Figure 3-2). Approximately 75–85 percent of the suitable habitat in Florida is private lands (FWC 2013a, p. 7; FWC 2013b, p. 7).

Figure 3-2. Florida sandhill crane occurrence, breeding, and suitable habitat range map, Georgia and Florida.

3.2 Abundance

As a species, sandhill cranes are the most abundant of the world’s 15 species of cranes (Gerber et al. 2014, Population Status section). Of the non-migratory subspecies, the Florida sandhill crane subspecies is represented as the largest distribution and population, the latter currently estimated, based upon available suitable habitat, as approximately 4,600 individuals. In comparison, the population estimates for the Cuban and Mississippi non-migratory subspecies are approximately 500 and 130, respectively (Gerber et al. 2014, Population Status section).

Since the 1970s, Florida sandhill crane population estimates have ranged from 4,000 to 8,600 (Table 3-1). There have been no synoptic counts of Florida sandhill cranes due to their large range, and population estimates have been based upon distribution, available habitat, and density estimates. In the 1970s, the population was estimated at 4,000 to 6,000 individuals and believed to be increasing (Lewis et al. 1977, p. 22). The Southeast Waterbird Conservation Plan (Hunter et al. 2006, Hunter 2018 pers. comm.) provides a relative population estimate of 8,644 individuals (1986–1991). Tacha et al. (1992, p. 16) estimated the population at 4,000 to 6,000 individuals in 1992. A Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis using occupied habitat, suitable habitat, home range size, age structure, and average flock size for 1973 and 2003 yielded estimates of 7,142 and 4,594, respectively (Nesbitt and Hatchitt 2008, p. 41; FWC 2013a, p. 6). Another ± 400 Florida sandhill cranes occur in Georgia, mostly in the Okefenokee Swamp (Bennett 1989a, p. 63). In Georgia, it appears as if the Florida sandhill cranes have declined over the past 30 years with a recent estimate of 200–300 primarily within the Okefenokee Swamp (Schneider 2018, pers. comm.).

Table 3-1. Population size estimates of Florida sandhill cranes, 1974–2017. Year Population Estimate Citation

2017 4,000-5,000 Florida FWC 2017

2017 200-300 Okefenokee Swamp Schneider 2018, pers. comm.

2003 4,594* in FL (+400 GA = ~5,000) Nesbitt and Hatchitt 2008

2001 4,000 Wood and Nesbitt 2001

2001 ± 400 Okefenokee Swamp area Abler and Nesbitt 2001

1996 4,000-6,000 Meine and Archibald 1996b

1992 4,000–6,000 FL and GA Tacha et al. 1992

1986–1991 8,644 Hunter et al. 2006

1989 403 Okefenokee Swamp Bennett 1989a

1982 5,000–6,000 FL Nesbitt 1982

1978 4,000–6,000 Williams 1978

1977 4,000 Lewis 1977

1974 7,142* FWC 2013a *Estimates calculated through a GIS analysis of land cover in 1974 and 2003 using occupied, suitable crane habitat, and annual home range sizes, age structure, and average flock size.

3.2.1 Population Trends

Population trend assessments have varied over time including declining, stable, and increasing trends (Table 3-2). A GIS analysis based on land cover in 2003 using occupied, suitable crane habitat and annual home range sizes, age structure, and average flock size yielded a population estimate of 4,594 cranes in Florida (Nesbitt and Hatchitt 2008, p. 41). This analysis also applied the same methodology to land cover data from 1974, yielding a larger area of suitable habitat and a population estimate of 7,142 cranes. This infers a 36 percent decline in the crane population statewide from 1974 to 2003 (Nesbitt and Hatchitt 2008, p. 41). The inferred decline is based upon the loss, degradation, or conversion of over 5 million ac (2 million ha) suitable habitat over 3 decades from 1970 to the 2000s (Nesbitt and Hatchitt 2008, p. 4). Additional loss, degradation, or conversion of 1.2 million ac (485,623 ha) has occurred during the last 15 years, also inferring a continued decline to the present time.

Table 3-2. Florida sandhill crane population trends 1970–2016. Year Population Trend Citation

2016 Stable to Increasing 1966–2016 Cox et al. 2016

2003 Declining 1974–2003 Nesbitt and Hatchitt 2008

1996 Stable with local declines and increases Meine and Archibald 1996a

1992 Stable Tacha et al. 1992

1978 Declining Williams 1978

1977 Increasing Lewis 1977

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Breeding Bird Survey data indicate a long-term positive population growth, 1966–2016, in Florida despite the substantial habitat loss/conversion/degradation and an extended drought in the early 2000s (Figure 3-3) (Cox et al. 2016, p. 2). Productivity rates from the North America Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) analysis also infer a stable or growing population except in the driest years (Cox et al. 2016, p. 11). Finally, fall reproductive surveys indicate that productivity rates are sufficient to maintain or grow local populations in all but the driest years (Cox et al. 2016, p. 12). It is duly noted that Florida sandhill crane productivity is closely related to rainfall with lower recruitment in the falls following a dry breeding season (Cox et al. 2016, p. 2).

Figure 3-3. Temporal trend of Florida sandhill crane abundance in Florida, 1966–2016, from Cox et al. (2016, p. 18). Data presented are from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (Sauer et al. 2017). In a comparison of the Breeding Bird Atlas (BBA) data between 1986–1991 and 2011–2015 time periods (FWC 2003; and Florida Ornithological Society 2018), detection of confirmed and probable nesting of Florida sandhill cranes within peninsular Florida USGS Topographic Quad Maps increased by nine percent from 317 to 347 (Figure 3-4). Per discussion at an Agency Expert Meeting (Service 2017, p. 1), the increase in Quads [that detected confirmed and probable nests] may not represent an increase in the population but a confirmation that Florida sandhill cranes already occupy and reproduce within available suitable habitat. Additionally, an increase in recent on-the-ground survey efforts occurring in under-surveyed areas helps confirm this notion.

In addition to native suitable habitat types available within the subspecies range, Cox et al. (2016, p. 11) identifies/acknowledges that there has been some recent expansion of breeding habitat use from prairies, ranchland/farm/pasture/cropland to also include “suboptimal” suburban habitats (e.g., golf courses, parks, subdivisions). There is no mention of this suburban use in Sprunt (1954, entire). Stevenson and Anderson (1994, p. 206) state that “cranes generally avoid urban areas” and Kale et al. (1992) state: “There is some indication of adjustment to human invasion of habitat, with nesting on golf course marshes and isolated wetlands in housing subdivisions. In many areas, adults and young may be found wandering from yard to yard, and some have become adept panhandlers.” Of important note when considering Florida sandhill crane trends is that the traditional method of estimating the population based upon suitable natural and agricultural (ranch/farm/pasture/cropland) habitat may underestimate the total population, given the subspecies now utilizes suburban habitats (e.g., housing sub-divisions, golf courses, recreational parks with wetlands) in greater numbers than in the past.

Figure 3-4. Map of Florida Breeding Bird Atlas Surveys (BB1 1986–1991 and BB2 2011–2015). Confirmed and probable nesting documented within Florida USGS Quad Maps increased from 317 to 347 quads (a 9 percent increase).

3.3 Factors Influencing the Viability of Florida Sandhill Cranes

In this section, we examine existing factors that are negatively and positively influencing the resiliency of Florida sandhill crane individuals or the entire population (rangewide) (i.e., threats and existing voluntary or regulatory conservation efforts) (Figure 3-5). Threats are defined as any action or condition that is known to or is reasonably likely to negatively affect individuals of a species (Service 2017a, p. 1). This includes those actions or conditions that have a direct impact on individuals, and those that affect individuals through alteration of their habitat or required resources. Thus, a threat as described herein is a general term that describes the source of an action or condition, or the action/condition itself, that may negatively affect Florida sandhill cranes.

Each threat is considered in terms of its scale, intensity, and duration, as well as potential direct or indirect impacts it may have on Florida sandhill cranes or its habitat across its life history stages. Some threats may be affecting the subspecies at all life stages, or all individuals within the population, or possibly affecting the subspecies only within a particular region within its overall range. It is possible that a threat may be specifically affecting a single resilience factor, such as the amount of suitable habitat, or a specific life stage. Some threats, while present and acting on individuals of the species, may not rise to the level of affecting the population. Factors influencing current condition can include both negative (e.g., collisions) and beneficial (e.g., prescribed fire) actions. Consideration and analysis is also given to the cumulative effects of these factors on the species’ overall viability. The overall current condition is expressed in terms of population resilience, and species redundancy and representation.

The most influential population resiliency factors (i.e. resource needs) were identified earlier under section 2.8, Summary of Ecological Needs. We identified potential threats and their cause and effect upon those needs and the subspecies as a whole through: (1) the FWC and Georgia Department of Natural Resources (DNR) Agency Expert meeting (Service 2017a), (2) published literature, and (3) unpublished reports. The primary threats (in order from greatest to least current effect on the subspecies) identified for the Florida sandhill crane include: habitat loss/conversion/degradation, changing climate conditions (drought and precipitation/heavy rain events), and mortalities resulting from predation, collisions, or human interactions/nest disturbances.

Another factor worth noting (but not analyzed here) is future consumptive water needs for the growing population of Florida and for agriculture. Both impact ground and surface water, which will have impacts on the health of Florida wetlands, in particular the shallow short hydroperiod wetlands. More studies are needed to quantify and predict such impacts.

Figure 3-5. Factors influencing Florida sandhill crane habitat and demographics. Blue boxes are subspecies ecological needs; light blue boxes and blue arrows indicate positive influences; black boxes indicate threats; orange boxes and text with associated black arrows are sources of threats; and orange arrows indicate negative influences on resource needs and the subspecies.

3.3.1 Habitat Loss/Conversion/Degradation

The primary threat to Florida sandhill cranes is habitat loss/conversion/degradation, which results from a combination of sources including development, habitat fragmentation, roads, water input/diversion/withdrawal, and lack of management (i.e., prescribed fire, grazing) within suitable habitat areas (Table 3-3).

Table 3-3. Current risk level (magnitude and extent) of the threat of Habitat Loss/Conversion/Degradation to the Florida sandhill crane (RISK: High–Moderate–Low, as defined at the beginning of Chapter 3). SOURCES OF PRIVATE LANDS CONSERVATION PRIVATE LANDS HABITAT LOSS/ RANCH/FARM/ LANDS SUBURBAN CONVERSION/DEGRADATION PASTURE/CROPLAND Development Low Moderate-Low High-Moderate Habitat Fragmentation Low Low High Roads Low Moderate-Low High Water Input/Diversion/Withdrawal Low Low High-Moderate Lack of Management (Prescribed Moderate-Low Moderate-Low High-Moderate Fire, Grazing)

Florida sandhill cranes rely on shallow wetlands for breeding, feeding, and roosting and open uplands with short herbaceous vegetation adjacent to these wetlands for foraging (see Section 2.8, above). Actions that result in loss of wetlands where cranes forage, roost, or nest can impair essential behavioral patterns. Similarly, actions that degrade occupied wetlands through changes in timing, quantity, or quality of water can also impair essential behavioral patterns. Flushing cranes from their nests can result in abandonment and thus loss of the eggs or chicks, regardless of whether nests occur in natural or man-made wetlands. Actions that impact upland foraging can also result in impairment of essential behaviors such as foraging (FWC 2016a, p. 2). Habitat is lost and or converted to suburban subdivisions, recreational parks (ball fields and playgrounds), golf courses, and communities; new roads associated with these developments further fragment the remaining habitat (Figure 3-6). When key habitat features that the subspecies relies on are lost or degraded, Florida sandhill cranes may use less optimal habitat and travel further to find needed resources, or even abandon their territories (FWC 2013b, p. 4; FWC 2016a, p. 2). Development creates rapid runoff during rain events (FWC 2013b, p. 5; FWC 2016a, p. 2), which can flood nesting marshes and active nests. Development also increases human disturbances at nesting marshes, which is known to cause nest failure (Stys 1997, p. 7). Development and the diversion of storm water away from nesting marshes leads to drier conditions and degradation from growth of woody vegetation (FWC 2013b, p. 4-5), the latter of which harbors predators such as bobcats, coyote, and raccoons. Finally, development brings roads, fences, and power lines, increasing the risk of collision mortalities (FWC 2013b, p. 5; FWC 2016a, p. 3). Thus, habitat loss/conversion/degradation from development can equate to (1) The loss of territories or use of suboptimal habitat with higher risk of disturbance and predation, (2) increased risk of rapid runoff that floods nests, (3) degradation of nesting marshes from diversion of stormwater, and (4) higher risk of collision mortalities from an increased number of roads, fences, and power lines.

As previously described, Nesbitt and Hatchitt (2008, p. 41) estimate that between 1973 and 2003, a period of extensive developmental growth in Florida, approximately 37 percent of suitable habitat was lost, converted, or degraded by development (Table 3-4). This equates to the loss of approximately 1.5 million ac (607,028 ha) every 10 years, totaling approximately 5 million ac (greater than 2 million ha) of suitable habitat. Considering both a finite amount of available suitable habitat and the associated loss/conversion/degradation of habitat, Nesbit and Hatchitt (2008) infer a declining trend in the population. An additional approximately 1.2 million ac (485,623 ha) of suitable habitat has been lost-degraded-converted since 2003 (Table 3-4). Suitable habitat in southern Georgia is primarily within the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) and thus protected as conservation lands and thus not directly impacted due to loss or conversion from development.

Table 3-4. Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat (Nesbitt and Hatchitt 2008 and FWC 2016b). Suitable Habitat Acres (Hectares) Criteria for Calculating Habitat

HISTORICAL

1974 13,288,368 (5,377,611) Nesbitt and Hatchitt (2008) GIS land-cover data Dry Prairie 1985 11,015,027 (4,457,623) Grassland Improved Pasture 1995 9,520,634 (3,852,863) Un-improved Pasture Shallow Freshwater Marsh 2003 7,704,956 (3,118,085) Shrub Swamp

CURRENT

5,079,032 (2,055,411) Nesbitt and Hatchitt (2008) 2003 Potential Habitat Model

(1) FWC (2016) Updated Potential (1) 3,859,812 (1,562,010) Habitat Model 2016 (2) 17,543 (7,099) (2) Okefenokee GIS Analysis TOTAL: 3,877,355 (1,569,109) (2018)

Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat (Figure 3-7), based upon the 2016 FWC update to the Nesbitt and Hatchitt (2008) suitable habitat model, indicates 3,859,812 ac (1,562,010 ha) of suitable Florida sandhill crane habitat remains in Florida and from GIS data from Okefenokee NWR there is an additional 17,543 ac (7,099 ha) of habitat within the refuge (Service 2012). Ninety percent of the suitable habitat is located in 20 central Florida counties (Figure 3-7).

Figure 3-6. Florida sandhill cranes in natural, rural, agricultural, golf course and suburban habitats. Photos credit: FWC.

Figure 3-7. Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat by percentage of total acreage (3,877,355 ac (1,569,109 ha)) within each county in Georgia and Florida, in comparison to current [2016] developed lands.

A majority of the remaining suitable habitat is on private lands and highlights the importance of the Service’s Partners for Wildlife Program, the FWC Landowner Incentive Program, and the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) Wetlands Reserve Program, all of which work with private landowners to reduce habitat loss and degradation and conduct restoration of marshes. An important note to working with private landowners in regards to conservation on their lands is that approximately 65 percent of Florida is in some form of agricultural land use, and many Florida sandhill cranes occupy these lands in peninsular Florida (FWC 2013b, p. 12).

Federal and State regulations provide protection to wetlands, which generally requires avoidance, minimizing impacts, and mitigation within the same water basin. The FWC’s Species Conservation Measures and Permitting Guidelines for the Florida Sandhill Crane (FWC 2016a, p. 15) provide guidance on avoidance, minimization, and mitigation for take of Florida sandhill cranes. It is noted that the Guidelines address new development with wetland impacts in coordination with the Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP) during the Environmental Resource Permitting process and if there is no wetland nexus (conversion of uplands) the Guidelines may not be applied. Georgia regulatory or permitting mechanisms do not address habitat destruction from development; however, this is not an issue for Florida sandhill cranes as the habitat that they depend upon is entirely within the boundaries of the Okefenokee Swamp NWR.

The FWC’s Species Action Plan (FWC 2013a, entire) and Species Conservation Measures and Permitting Guidelines (FWC 2016a, entire) for the Florida sandhill crane are being shared, recommended, and implemented. These include objectives to maintain and increase the statewide area of suitable habitat for Florida sandhill cranes. Conservation measures and guidelines include (but are not limited to): (1) Recommended conservation practices (maintain/restore marsh hydrology, prescribed fire, etc.); (2) measures to avoid, minimize, or mitigate take; (3) Florida Forestry Wildlife Best Management Practices and Florida Agricultural Wildlife Best Management Practices; and (4) review of land and water conversion projects with state-listed species conditions for avoidance.

3.3.1 Summary—Habitat Loss/Conversion/Degradation

The primary threat to Florida sandhill cranes is habitat loss/conversion/degradation. Sources include development, fragmentation of habitat by new road construction, lack of habitat management (primarily lack of prescribed fire), and impacts to wetlands (draining, water diversion, water withdrawals). Florida sandhill cranes rely on shallow wetlands for breeding, feeding, and roosting, and open uplands with short herbaceous vegetation adjacent to these wetlands for foraging. Actions that degrade these resource needs can also impair essential behavioral patterns. It is estimated that approximately 6.8 million ac (1.5 million ha) of Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat has been lost/converted/degraded since the early 1970s (Nesbitt and Hatchitt 2008). It is estimated that approximately 3.9 million ac (1.6 million ha) of suitable habitat remain within the Florida sandhill crane’s range from the Okefenokee Swamp in southern Georgia into the Everglades in south Florida (Gerber et al. 2014). Ninety percent of this habitat is concentrated within 20 counties of central Florida. One fourth of the suitable habitat is located within conservation lands and the majority remains on private lands, thus highlighting

the importance of working with the private landowners regarding wildlife conservation on their lands through Federal and State private land conservation incentive programs. Federal and State regulations provide protection to wetlands by requiring avoidance, minimizing impacts, and implementing mitigation. However, the uplands are not provided similar protections. As a State of Florida listed species, a species action plan, permitting guidelines, and best management practices have been developed by FWC in order to reduce impacts from development and other land uses, such that the subspecies’ resource needs are being maintained.

3.3.2 Changing Climate Conditions

The terms “climate” and “climate change” are defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The term “climate” refers to the mean and variability of different types of weather conditions over time, with 30 years being a typical period for such measurements (IPCC 2013, p. 1,450). This, the term “climate change” (or changing climate conditions), refers to a change in the mean or variability of one or more measures of climate (for example, temperature or precipitation) that persists for an extended period, whether the change is due to natural variability or human activity (IPCC 2013, p. 1,450).

The scientific and ecological information on changing climate conditions presented in this section includes summarized work by the National Climate Team and staff of the Service from the 2014 publication titled “Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment” (NCA) (Carter et al. 2014, entire). This team also summarized the 2013 publication from the IPCC entitled “Highlights of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report: The Physical Science Basis of Climate Change (WGI); Summary for Policymakers” (IPCC 2013, entire). For the purposes of this analysis, this information is further condensed with a primary focus on Florida (Service 2017b, entire).

The two most likely climate-related changes that may affect Florida sandhill cranes are changes in precipitation levels and increased frequency and duration of drought conditions. These two conditions are described in sections 3.3.2.1 and 3.3.2.2, below.

Regarding increasing temperature, the average temperature in the United States has increased by 1.3 to 1.9 degrees Fahrenheit (ºF) (0.77 to 1.1 degrees Celsius (ºC)) since record keeping began in 1895 (Service 2017b, p. 2). The decade from 2000 to 2009 is documented as the warmest on record (since record keeping began in 1895) (Service 2017b, p. 2). Within the state of Florida, temperature changes vary by region. Since 1991, average temperatures have increased: 1.5 ºF (0.8 ºC) in south Florida; 1–1.5 ºF (0.5–0.8 ºC) in central Florida; and 0.5–1 ºF (0.3–0.5 ºC) in northern Florida (Service 2017b, p. 2). At this time, the best available scientific and commercial information indicate that there are no correlations that higher temperatures are currently a threat to the Florida sandhill crane population across its range. Florida sandhill cranes are more active foraging and moving between habitat features in the mornings and late afternoons. Ecologically, during middle/heat of the day, Florida sandhill cranes are less active and loafing/resting in the shade of trees, or roosting in water features where temperatures are moderated (Nesbitt 1996, p. 223) (see also section 2.3, above). Nesting primarily occurs at the end of winter into the spring, and thus during the time period of lowest temperatures in Florida.

Changes in sea level rise were analyzed to determine recent and future impacts to the Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat. Currently, data show that changes in sea level in Florida both recently and over the next century have and are expected to follow the global trend reasonably closely, but on shorter time scales (Mitchum et al. 2017, Chapter 19, p. 22). Global sea level rose about 8 in (20 cm) in the last century and is projected to rise another 1–4 ft (0.3–1.2 m) in this century (Carter et al. 2014, pp. 400–402). Further analysis shows that unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, sea level in Florida will most likely increase by 3.2–6.6 ft (1–2 m) over the next 50 to 100 years (Mitchum et al. 2017, Chapter 19, p. 22).

We evaluated the Florida sandhill suitable habitat near the coast for potential impacts from sea level rise for recent and future high sea level rise projections of 6 ft (1.8 m) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 2017, entire; Carter et al. 2014, entire). Our analysis found less than 0.6 percent loss of any suitable habitat in Florida during the next 50 to 100 years from sea level rise under the high 6 ft (1.8 m) projection (Table 3-5). Thus, the best available data indicate that sea level rise has not impacted and will have little to no impact on the redundancy and resiliency of this subspecies.

Table 3-5. Sea level rise worst-case scenario (6 ft (1.8 m) projection) and loss of Florida (excludes Georgia) sandhill crane suitable habitat. Current Suitable Habitat Habitat Lost Percent Acres (Hectares) Acres (Hectares) Sea level rise 6 ft 3,859,812 21,738 0.563 (NOAA) (1,562,010) (8,797)

For the purposes of this SSA and for the remainder of this document, we acknowledge that climatic and environmental conditions discussed in the subsections below for Florida or specifically for North Florida include the Okefenokee Swamp and Southern Georgia, unless specified for Southern Georgia.

3.3.2.1 Precipitation Changes and Heavy Rain Events

Annual precipitation for Florida and Georgia varies widely between years (Figure 3-8 Florida) (Runkle et al. 2017, p. 4 (Florida); Frankson et al. 2017, p. 4 (Georgia)). Florida has experienced below average precipitation in recent history and the 5-year period (2006–2010) was the driest on record with a little less than 48 in (122 cm) of annual precipitation (Figure 3-8). Historically, the number of extreme precipitation events, which are defined as greater than 4 in (10 cm) within 48 hours, is highly variable with the highest 5-year average number occurring during 2010–2014 (Figure 3-8).

Figure 3-8. Florida’s annual observed precipitation (1895–2009) and extreme precipitation events (1900–2014) (Runkle et al. 2017, p. 4 (Florida)).

The NCA reports that average precipitation in northeast Florida, south Georgia, and south Florida has increased by 5 to 10 percent since 1900, and central Florida region has decreased by 5 to 10 percent (Walsh et al. 2014, pp. 32–35). Heavy downpours have increased over the last 30 to 50 years (Service 2017b, p. 4). There has been a 27 percent increase in the frequency of heavy downpours in Florida since the 1970s (Service 2017b, p. 4).

Florida sandhill cranes are dependent upon freshwater wetlands for breeding (Tacha et al. 1992, p. 5; Gerber et al. 2014, Habitat section). Nesting generally follows the fall and winter rainy season and primarily occurs February through April (FWC 2013, p. 1). They can breed as early as December and extend nesting or renesting through August (FWC 2013b, p. 1). This prolonged nesting season allows Florida sandhill cranes to breed when conditions are optimal and renest after failures if conditions are suitable. High winter rainfall creates suitable nesting conditions and thereby increases productivity in a given year (Stys 1997, p. 5), whereas high rainfall in the spring can decrease productivity through nest flooding, resulting in nest failure (Stys 1997, p. 5). Also noted is that some suitable nesting areas will only be used in years of ample winter rainfall (Stys 1997, p. 5).

The best available data indicate that the documented 5 to 10 percent decrease in precipitation in central Florida and 5 to 10 percent increase in north and south Florida over the last 30 to 50 years do not appear to have impacted breeding success and recruitment of the Florida sandhill crane population. The overall population trend appears to be stable or increasing (Cox et al. 2016, p. 11; Table and Figure 3-3). Under normal precipitation conditions, even with some variation, wetter or drier is considered low risk (Table 3-6) to nesting within marshes on conservation lands and within or adjacent to ranch/farm/pasture/cropland because these areas generally hold water from the fall and winter rainy season and water levels recede during the dry season. The risk to breeding success and recruitment is higher (Table 3-6) in suburban wetlands as they are designed to receive stormwater but also to divert away from the wetlands during wetter time periods to minimize impact to houses and roads. Additionally, suburban wetlands/marshes dry out more readily than natural wetlands.

Heavy rain events can flood marshes and cause nest failures if they occur during the breeding season. The risk may be higher in suburban areas as stormwater is directed into retention ponds and constructed wetlands, and may lead to localized flooding and thus inundation of nests. Florida sandhill cranes are fairly resilient in that they can renest and thus still have an opportunity for a successful breeding season. Currently, the best available data indicate that the observed increase in heavy rain events has not had deleterious effects on the Florida sandhill crane population as evidenced by the stable to increasing trend (Cox et al. 2016, p. 12). As a result, the risk to the overall population appears low throughout the majority of conservation lands and private lands that are ranch/farm/pasture/cropland within the subspecies’ range. The private lands-suburban category are all Moderate risk, however Florida sandhill cranes have adapted to nesting impacts as they can renest up to three times during a breeding season (Stys 1997, p. 5).

Table 3-6. Current risk level (magnitude and extent) of the threat of changing climate conditions to the Florida sandhill crane (RISK: High–Moderate–Low, as defined at the beginning of Chapter 3). PRIVATE LANDS PRIVATE CONSERVATION THREATS RANCH/FARM/ LANDS LANDS PASTURE/CROPLAND SUBURBAN Precipitation Low Low Moderate Heavy Rain Events Low Low Moderate Severe or Extended Moderate Moderate Moderate Droughts

3.3.2.2 Severe or Extended Droughts

Severe or extended droughts are one of the primary threats for the Florida sandhill crane because they can reduce nesting success. Extended droughts can also lead to low annual-productivity (FWC 2013a, p. 7; Cox et al. 2016, p. 11) and recruitment. Using shallow marshes with lower water levels due to droughts during incubation and brood rearing periods makes cranes more vulnerable to predation and disturbance (FWC 2013a, p.7). Cranes usually forgo nesting when wetlands are dry (FWC 2013a, p. 7; FWC 2013b, p.5).

An analysis of long-term climate data reveal marked differences between the Florida panhandle and the peninsula (Enge et al. 2014, pp. 3–5 and 29–30). Drought indices show a significant trend of increasing drought over time in the peninsula excluding the northern peninsula. Drought periods in Georgia are also expected to follow the north Florida trends (Carter et al. 2014, pp. 405–406).

Although drought is a naturally occurring event that affects the ecology of the Florida sandhill crane, this subspecies has adapted by having a prolonged nesting season and can renest up to three times after failed attempts. Low water levels leave nests and young vulnerable to predation (FWC 2013a, p. 7). In the driest years, the cranes may forgo nesting if the wetland is too dry (FWC 2013b, p. 5). Prolonged droughts can worsen threats and exacerbate the degradation and fragmentation of crane habitat, such as accelerating succession of herbaceous wetlands with

growth of woody vegetation, which replaces herbaceous marshes and adjacent uplands in some areas (Service 2017b, p. 4). These successional habitat changes increase the bird’s survival risks given that woody habitats harbor predators. Droughts also lead to more woody vegetation within the open uplands. These conditions all lead to low annual reproduction (Nesbitt 1996, pp. 223– 224; FWC 2013b, p. 7; FWC 2013a, pp. 4–5; FWC 2016a, p. 2).

Productivity, which is closely related to rainfall and recruitment, is noted to be lower in the fall following a dry breeding season (Cox et al. 2016 p. 11). At this time, the USGS BBS data for Florida sandhill crane indicate a long-term positive population growth from 1966–2016 in Florida, despite an extended drought in the early 2000s (Cox et al. 2016, p. 2). However, many of the survey routes are concentrated in rural areas and thus more information is needed on how Florida sandhill cranes fair in suburban areas (Cox et al. 2016, p. 10). Even though drought does not appear to negatively affect abundance, it does impact productivity (Cox et al. 2016, p. 10).

3.3.2.3 Summary—Changing Climate Conditions

As described above, precipitation has decreased in central Florida and increased in the northern and southern areas of the range, heavy downpours have increased, and severe or extended droughts could have an impact on the resiliency, representation, and redundancy of the Florida sandhill crane. Overall, these threats are not currently associated with a decrease in long-term population trend, given the current trend is positive (Cox et al. 2016, p. 12). These stochastic events are considered a moderate risk threat on conservation and ranch/farm/pasture/cropland, and in suburban habitats (Table 3-6). The best available data indicate that when drought conditions are severe and extended, they are likely resulting in some level of negative effects on the subspecies’ reproductive success and recruitment, and contributing to increased levels of predation. Additionally, lower water levels in nesting marshes during severe and extended droughts may leave nests and young more vulnerable to predation, and the succession of woody vegetation in nesting marshes and upland foraging areas harbor more predators.

3.3.3 Mortalities—Predation, Collisions, and Disturbance

Another threat identified for Florida sandhill cranes is direct mortalities associated with either predation; collisions with vehicles, power lines, and fences; or human-related disturbances to nests (Table 3-7). These impacts typically result in death of eggs, chicks, fledgling chicks, juveniles and adults.

3.3.3.1 Predation

Florida sandhill cranes have relatively few natural enemies. Adults can be taken by bobcats and bald eagles (Nesbitt 1996, p. 223; FWC 2013, p. 5), whereas chicks and eggs are more vulnerable to any predators (e.g., bobcats, coyote, fox, raccoons, alligators, bald eagles, great horned owls) that frequent marshes. Thus, adult sandhill crane pairs diligently protect their nests and offspring (Nesbitt 1996, p. 223). Nesting success is dependent on stable water levels within nesting marshes with few or no predators (FWC 2013b, pp. 4–5). Dense vegetation contributes to increases in predation (Figure 3-9) (FWC 2013b, p. 4) because these areas support higher

Table 3-7. Current risk level (magnitude and extent) of predation, collisions, and human nest disturbance to the Florida sandhill crane (RISK: High–Moderate–Low, as defined at the beginning of Chapter 3). PRIVATE LANDS PRIVATE CONSERVATION THREATS RANCH/FARM/ LANDS LANDS PASTURE/CROPLAND SUBURBAN Moderate- Predation Low Moderate High Collisions (vehicles, Moderate- Low Low-Moderate power lines, fences) High Moderate- Human Nest Disturbance Low Low High

densities of bobcats, which are more successful at killing cranes compared to other predators (FWC 2013b, p. 8). Additionally, there is a higher risk of crane predation near suburban areas given that many types of predator species thrive in the typical overgrown, suburban habitats; predators in these areas usually include species such as raccoons, bobcats, fox, and coyote (FWC 2013a, p. 8).

The risk of predation on conservation lands is considered to be natural and thus low. If fire regimes are not maintained (natural or prescribed), the threat and risk of predation is elevated due to the succession of woody vegetation in the wetlands and uplands essential to Florida sandhill cranes. The risk is higher near humans; thus, we identify a moderate risk in the ranch/farm/pasture/cropland habitat areas and a high risk within suburban habitat areas. Predation does not currently rise to the level of a major risk (i.e., population/rangewide level impacts) to the overall population health of Florida sandhill cranes.

Figure 3-9. Florida sandhill crane foraging along the edge of open and woody habitat, which raises the risk of predation from bobcats and coyotes. Photo credit: FWC.

3.3.3.2 Collisions

Documented Florida sandhill crane mortality in Florida is often human-related (Folk et al. 2001, p. 197). Collisions resulting from vehicles, power lines, and fences are an identified threat to the subspecies (Table 3-7) (Folk et al. 2001, p. 197). The best available data indicate that vehicle collisions are a common mortality source for Florida sandhill cranes that inhabit suburban areas (Folk et al. 2001, p. 197; FWC 2013a, p. 9; FWC 2016a, p. 3). For example, pairs and their pre- fledged chicks walk between the nest/roosting/foraging marsh to the upland foraging habitats and within fragmented habitats, walking along or across roads and suburban subdivisions. These mortalities combined with predation are likely the leading factors of mortality in the suburban habitats. Additionally, power and utility lines can separate habitat areas that Florida sandhill cranes may fly to and from. Power line collisions lead to broken necks, legs, and wings (Windingstad 1988, p. 262).

Collisions are rare and thus considered a low risk threat within conservation lands and rural and ranch/farm/pasture/cropland. Alternatively, the risk is higher in suburban areas due to human presence and fragmented habitat from roads and power lines (Table 3-7). Although the best available data at this time do not indicate these mortalities are resulting in population/rangewide impacts to the subspecies, nonetheless, the FWC has developed and is implementing management actions and recommendations to reduce these suburban mortalities (FWC 2013b, pp. 8–23).

3.3.3.3 Disturbance—Human Interactions and Nest Disturbance

Sandhill cranes are sensitive to disturbance during the nesting season. Flushing during incubation makes the eggs more vulnerable to predation and also exposes eggs and nestlings to the elements (FWC 2016a, p. 2). In developed areas, they are vulnerable to harassment and even predation by domestic dogs and cats, especially pre-fledged young. Disturbances around active nests greatly decrease success (FWC 2013b, p. 17) and even cause abandonment (Dwyer and Tanner 1992, p. 28). Humans within 250 ft (75 m) of a nest can cause a crane to flush (Dwyer and Tanner 1992, p. 29). Buffers of 400 ft (125 m) are recommended to provide space to avert flushing (Stys 1997, p. 15; FWC 2016a, p. 9).

On conservation and ranch/farm/pasture/cropland lands, nest disturbance is considered to be a low risk threat because human activities in these areas is generally minimal. The risk level increases to moderate-high near humans in suburban environments. However, disturbance does not currently rise to the level of a major risk impacting the overall population status of Florida sandhill cranes.

Figure 3-10. Vehicle collision mortality risks (first two photos) and marked transmission lines to reduce crane collision mortalities. Photos credit: FWC.

3.3.3.4 Summary—Mortalities

Florida sandhill cranes have relatively few natural enemies. Adults can be taken by bobcats and bald eagles, whereas chicks and eggs are more vulnerable to any predators, such as bobcats,

coyote, fox, raccoons, alligators, bald eagles, great horned owls that frequent marshes. Thus, adult sandhill crane pairs diligently protect their nests and offspring. Nesting success is dependent upon water level stability as it provides protection to the nests and nestlings. Documented mortality is often human-related, often collisions resulting from vehicles, power lines, and fences. Data indicate that vehicle collisions are a common mortality source in cranes that inhabit suburban areas. Florida sandhill cranes are sensitive to human disturbance during the nesting season, and flushing during incubation makes the eggs more vulnerable to predation and also exposes eggs or nestlings to the elements, and thus more of an impact in suburban habitats. Available information at this time does not indicate that predation, collisions, and human interactions are resulting in population/rangewide impacts to the subspecies.

3.4 Conservation Actions

The Florida sandhill crane is a Florida state-listed species, originally designated as a threatened species in 1974 (FWC 1996); the subspecies is not state-listed in Georgia. In 2011, the FWC published an updated Biological Status Review (FWC 2011, entire) and determined the subspecies continues to meet the criteria for a state-threatened species. In 2013, a Species Action Plan for the Florida sandhill crane was published (FWC 2013b, entire) that includes 25 actions subdivided into several categories (Table 3-8), most of which are underway/ongoing. The 2016 Species Conservation Measure and Permitting Guidelines for the Florida Sandhill Crane (FWC 2016a, pp. 1–15) provide recommendations on avoidance, minimization, and mitigation and are used in regulatory permit reviews throughout the subspecies range. Finally, the Florida Forestry Wildlife Best Management Practices for State Imperiled Species (Florida Department of Agriculture and consumer Services (FDACS) and FWC 2013) and Agricultural Wildlife Best Management Practices for State Imperiled Species (FDACS 2015), are designed to reduce the potential of incidental take of sandhill cranes during agricultural and forestry operations. Similar land management and conservation efforts within the Service’s Okefenokee NWR are ongoing (Service 2006, entire).

Few land managers deliberately manage their lands specifically for the Florida sandhill crane; however, prescribed burning is the most important conservation and management tool in Florida and Georgia and greatly benefits Florida sandhill cranes (FWC 2013b, p. 11; FWC 2016a, p. 6; Service 2006, p. 83). Conservation lands include the Service’s NWRs, U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) lands, FWC Wildlife Management Areas (WMAs), FDEP State Parks and Preserves, and Water Management District (WMD) conservation lands. Prescribed fire is equally as important for private land managers, although implementation is less frequent than on conserved lands. All prescribed fires in Florida sandhill crane habitat are very beneficial to the health of the habitat and Florida sandhill crane population, maintaining open habitat and appropriate grass height between nesting and roosting areas for foraging (i.e., reduces woody vegetation encroachment in wetlands and uplands), and stimulates growth of grasslands, prairies, and herbaceous marsh that the subspecies relies on (see Section 2.8, above). In locations where prescribed fire is not possible, suitable habitat can be maintained via mechanical treatments, mowing, and grazing.

Table 3-8. FWC conservation actions from the Florida Sandhill Crane Species Action Plan (FWC 2013, pp. 8–23).

Categories Conservation Actions

*Conserve and manage suitable land through fee-simple and less-than-fee-simple acquisition. *Create new and support ongoing water conservation programs in regions critical to Florida Habitat sandhill cranes. Conservation *Ensure the incorporation of Florida sandhill crane habitat needs into programs that influence habitat acquisition and management.

*Encourage restoration of natural hydrological conditions. Habitat *Promote prescribed fire and mechanical treatment on public and private land. Management *Make habitat management recommendations for public and private lands. *Maintain cattle grazing as a management tool on public and private lands.

Population *Reduce crane mortality from vehicles. Management *Mark power lines to reduce crane collision mortalities.

*Quantify the habitat parameters and determine vegetation associations preferred and avoided by Florida sandhill cranes. Monitoring and *Determine the distribution and quality of existing habitat. Research *Determine survivorship and productivity. *Develop and implement population monitoring protocol. *Develop a population model.

Rule and *Implement permitting guidelines. Permitting Intent

Law *Continue enforcement of illegal take rules, feeding prohibition, and wetland protection laws. Enforcement

*Create incentives for maintaining or creating marshes within suitable uplands though a Incentives and Landowner Incentive Program. Influencing *Work with partners to raise the value of emergent marsh in mitigation programs.

*Create public service announcement about Florida sandhill cranes. *Provide information about living with cranes. Education and *Test new methods of deterring nuisance cranes. Outreach *Implement appropriate responses to injured cranes. *Provide information about crane friendly fencing materials.

*Coordinate with local and county governments to ensure consideration of Florida sandhill Coordination cranes during development planning. with Other *Work with FDEP and WMDs on wetland regulations. Entities *Provide timely crane-related information to land use planners.

3.4.1 Conservation Lands

Of the estimated 3.9 million ac (1.6 million ha) of suitable Florida sandhill crane habitat that currently exists, approximately 1 million ac (404,685 ha) or one-fourth is located on Federal, State, local, and private conservation lands (Figure 3-11).

Figure 3-11. Map of conservation lands and suitable habitat for Florida sandhill cranes in Florida and Georgia, including Federal, State, local, and privately-owned areas.

The Florida Forever Program is the state’s land acquisition program and is run by the Division of State Lands (DSL). The program purchases properties with high conservation value using both fee-simple and less-than-fee acquisition strategies (conservation easements)1. Protection of Florida sandhill crane habitat through conservation easements is prominent at all levels in land conservation in Florida. Cattle ranches are a stronghold2 of the Florida sandhill crane and Federal and State programs, such as Partners for Wildlife, the NRCS Wetland Reserve Program, and FWC’s Landowner Assistance Program, all of which are being used to further conservation and thus provide benefits to Florida sandhill cranes on ranch and other agricultural lands throughout its range. The FDACS’s Rural and Family Lands Protection Program also focuses on the protection of valuable agricultural lands and ensures sustainable agriculture through conservation easements and provides benefits to Florida sandhill cranes including (but not limited to) restoring and creating wetlands, improving pasture and range conditions, and assisting with prescribed fire and grazing to maintain open landscapes. The establishment of the Service’s Everglades Headwaters NWR and Conservation Area will protect a combination of wetland and upland habitats supporting migratory birds, Federal and state listed species, and regionally important wildlife and plant communities in the Kissimmee River Basin. This initiative has identified a 745,000-ac (301,490-ha) Conservation Partnership Area within the center and stronghold of the sandhill crane range (Figure 3-12) in Polk, Osceola, Highlands, and Okeechobee counties. Some of the larger, significant protected areas for Florida sandhill crane throughout the subspecies range include: Three Lakes WMA, Avon Park Air Force Range, Kissimmee Prairie Preserve State Park, Triple N Ranch WMA, Paynes Prairie State Park, Green Swamp, and Okefenokee NWR. 3.4.2 Summary— Conservation Actions The Florida sandhill crane is a Florida state-listed threatened species and in 2013, a Species Action Plan (FWS 2013a) was published, which includes 25 conservation actions subdivided into several categories. In 2013 and 2015, two guidance documents were developed to reduce the potential of incidental take of sandhill cranes during agricultural and forestry operations within Florida: (1) The Florida Forestry Wildlife Best Management Practices for State Imperiled Species, and (2) the Agricultural Wildlife Best Management Practices for State Imperiled Species. In 2016, the Species Conservation Measure and Permitting Guidelines for the Florida Sandhill Crane was published to provide recommendations on avoidance, minimization, and mitigation and are used in regulatory permit reviews throughout the subspecies range in Florida. Management and conservation efforts within the Service’s Okefenokee NWR in Georgia are ongoing.

1 Fee‐simple is the purchase of lands outright and less‐than‐fee simple is the purchase of limited property rights. Acquiring land at less‐than‐fee simple means acquisition of an interest in the property, which allows the Program to conserve and protect resources on the property at less cost while keeping the land in private ownership. For more information, see the Florida Senate Issue Brief 2011‐217, October 2010. 2 The stronghold or core of the Florida sandhill cranes range is defined by the 90 percent of suitable habitat and presumably of the population that is found in the 20 central Florida counties of: Brevard, Charlotte, Desoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands, Hillsborough, Indian River, Lake, Manatee, Martin, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Pasco, Polk, Sarasota, Sumter, and St. Lucie.

Prescribed burning is the most important conservation and management tool in Florida and Georgia and is used for conservation purposes on Federal lands, State lands, local conservation lands, and also private lands throughout the Florida sandhill cranes range. It is essential and is very beneficial to the health of Florida sandhill crane habitat in maintaining open habitat and stimulating growth of grasslands, prairies, and herbaceous marsh that this subspecies relies upon. Approximately 1 million ac (404,685 ha) or one-fourth of the Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat is located on Federal, State, local, and private conservation lands. The Florida Forever Program, Florida’s land acquisition program purchases properties with high conservation. Conservation easements are prominent at all levels in land conservation in Florida and cattle ranches are a stronghold of the Florida sandhill crane. Federal and State programs are being used to further conservation and thus provide benefits on ranches, farms, and other agricultural lands throughout its range. The establishment of the Service’s Everglades Headwaters NWR and Conservation Area is a significant initiative that will be the centerpiece to Florida sandhill crane conservation because it will protect wetland and upland habitats within the center and stronghold of the sandhill crane range. Other significant protected areas for Florida sandhill crane throughout the subspecies range include: Three Lakes WMA, Avon Park Air Force Range, Kissimmee Prairie Preserve State Park, Triple N Ranch WMA, Paynes Prairie State Park, Green Swamp, and Okefenokee NWR. 3.5 Summary—Factors Influencing the Viability of Florida Sandhill Cranes To summarize the current condition of factors affecting the viability of Florida sandhill cranes, we take into consideration the biological principles of resiliency, representation, and redundancy, as described in detail in section 1.3. Resiliency is the ability of Florida sandhill cranes to withstand stochastic disturbances; representation describes the ability of the subspecies to adapt to changing environmental conditions over time; and redundancy describes the ability of the subspecies to withstand catastrophic events.

Figure 3-12. Map of Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat and the Everglades Headwaters NWR and Conservation Area located within the core of Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat.

3.5.1 Resiliency

The Florida sandhill crane subspecies is a single, large population whose genetics are very similar to that of the other migratory and nonmigratory subspecies. The area of occurrence of the Florida sandhill crane is spread over a large geographic range, estimated at 12,039 mi2 (31,181 km2) within peninsular Florida with an additional 665 mi2 (1,722 km2) of the Okefenokee Swamp in southern Georgia (Table 3-4, Figure 3-7). The Florida sandhill crane currently occupies approximately 3.8 million ac (1.5 million ha) of suitable habitat (Table 3-4, Figure 3-7). The current breeding range includes 41 peninsular Florida counties and 3 counties in south Georgia (Figure 3-2 and 3-4). Over the past 50 years, Florida sandhill crane population estimates have ranged within 4,000–8,000 individuals (Table 3-1). Florida sandhill cranes have persisted through numerous hurricanes, severe storms, droughts, and habitat loss/conversion/degradation of approximately 6.7 million ac (2.7 million ha) of suitable habitat over the past 5 decades (Table 3-4).

There is an inferred 36 percent decline in the population based upon habitat loss, conversion, or degradation of approximately 5.5 million ac (2.2 million ha) of suitable habitat over 3 decades (1970–2000) due to urban development in Florida. Additional habitat loss, conversion, or degradation of 1.2 million ac (0.48 million ha) has occurred during the last 15 years (Table 3-4) and would also infer a continued decline. Regardless, at this time, the best available data indicate that approximately 3.8 million ac (1.5 million ha) of suitable habitat remains primarily in peninsular Florida with 91 percent located within 20 counties of central and south Florida: Brevard, Charlotte, Desoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands, Hillsborough, Indian River, Lake, Manatee, Martin, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Pasco, Polk, Sarasota, Sumter, and St. Lucie.

Despite the documented historical loss of suitable habitat within the Florida sandhill crane’s range and an extended drought in the early 2000s, Florida BBS data indicate a long-term positive population growth trend (1966–2016). Although crane productivity is closely related to rainfall and noted to be lower following a dry breeding season, reproduction is sufficient for a stable or growing population except in the driest years (Cox et al. 2016, p. 12).

The 1986–1991 and 2011–2015 Florida BBA surveys document an increase of confirmed and probable breeding detections from 317 to 348 USGS Quad Maps within peninsular Florida (Figure 3-4). Given that the Florida sandhill crane likely occupies all available suitable habitat (Service 2018, p. 1), these surveys confirm the occurrence of Florida sandhill cranes using available habitat not surveyed previously. Thus, this increase is correlated to better survey coverage in remote areas and also confirms occupancy in suburban habitats as Florida sandhill cranes have become increasingly common in suburban areas (Service 2017a, pp. 1–4; Cox et al. 2016, p. 12).

Based on the described current conditions, the resiliency of the Florida sandhill crane is considered high at this time. The best available data indicate that this single, large population is widely distributed across a large range with an estimated 5,000–8,000+ individuals. Further, this population exhibits a stable to increasing population trend in the presence of habitat loss,

conversion, or degradation; hurricanes; severe storm and rain events; and periodic droughts over the last 50 years.

3.5.2 Representation

The Florida sandhill crane subspecies is a single, widely distributed population that has limited environmental variation and is genetically similar to the Cuban and Mississippi nonmigratory subspecies and to the migratory greater and Canadian subspecies (see Section 1.2). The greater sandhill crane’s winter range overlaps with the Florida sandhill crane; the two subspecies cannot be distinguished except when greater sandhill cranes migrate during October to April. There are no behavioral or morphological variations within the subspecies. Further genetic research is needed to determine if the Florida sandhill crane is a subspecies or likely a population of the greater sandhill crane subspecies.

The Florida sandhill crane lives in the ecological setting of the coastal plain grasslands and prairies for foraging, with contiguous or adjacent herbaceous wetlands for roosting, foraging, and nesting. Historically, a significant portion of this habitat in Florida was converted into ranchland/ farm/pasture/cropland; Florida sandhill cranes in those areas adapted to use these modified habitats successfully. In recent history, due to the rapid human population growth in Florida since the 1970s, many of the farms, ranches, and other agricultural lands have been converted into residential subdivisions, recreational parks, and golf courses. The best available data indicate that Florida sandhill cranes are adapting and using these suboptimal suburban areas, which provide for some of the fundamental needs, including nesting-roost marshes and open uplands. However, additional monitoring and research is necessary regarding reproductive success in these suburban areas, as there are greater threats in these areas that can adversely affect the species (e.g., increased mortality from predators, vehicles, and human disturbance).

Based on this information, representation appears moderate to high. No behavioral, morphological, or variation in appearance is described for the Florida sandhill crane. Genetically, the Florida sandhill crane is similar to four of the five other subspecies. Florida sandhill cranes seem to have the capability to adapt to new landscapes as long as the fundamental needs for nesting and foraging are met. Historically, conversion of grassland-prairie into ranches, farms, pastures, or croplands—and in recent history conversion of these to suburban development with housing subdivisions, recreational parks, and golf courses—has been the most significant change in suitable habitat for the Florida sandhill crane.

3.5.3 Redundancy

The Florida sandhill crane is a wide ranging, single population, encompassing 12,039 mi2 (31, 180.9 km2) within peninsular Florida (48 counties) and 665 mi2 (1,722 km2) in southern Georgia (3 counties) (see Section 3.1, above). Although redundancy can be measured by spreading the risk across multiple populations, a single, large population (spatial extent) also spreads the risk to minimize the potential loss from catastrophic events. Stressors can vary throughout the Florida sandhill crane range and thus no one stochastic event is likely to impact the entire population. Overall, the best available data indicate that redundancy for the Florida sandhill crane is considered moderate.

Table 3-9. Current conditions in regards to resiliency, representation, and redundancy.

RESILIENCY REPRESENTATION REDUNDANCY High High Moderate-High

Large range-spatially Genetics monotypic; One population one population with a large Long-lived range-spatial Uses similar habitat features extent 12,039 mi2 Can re-nest 2-3 times throughout its range: freshwater (31, 180.9 km2) herbaceous marshes within or Genetics monotypic; adjacent to open uplands one population Historically adapted to habitat Winter overlap with the Greater Sandhill conversions of native Crane subspecies grasslands-prairies to ranchlands, farms, pastures, and Historically adapted to habitat crop lands conversions of native grasslands-prairies to ranchlands, farms, pastures, and crop Recent adaptation to habitat lands conversions to suburban subdivisions, golf courses, and Recent adaptation to habitat conversions recreational parks to suburban subdivisions, golf courses, (if elemental needs of and recreational parks (if elemental needs herbaceous marshes and open of herbaceous marshes and open uplands uplands are maintained) are maintained)

CHAPTER 4 – FUTURE CONDITION SCENARIOS

4.1 Introduction

To analyze species’ viability, we consider the current and future availability or condition of resources that Florida sandhill cranes rely on (see Section 2.8, Summary of Ecological Needs).

To examine the potential future condition of the Florida sandhill crane, we developed three future scenarios that focus on a range of conditions based on projections for land development, changing climate conditions, other threats, and beneficial conservation actions (as described in sections 4.2.1 Development, 4.2.2 Precipitation and Heavy Rain Events, and 4.2.3 Drought). The range of what may happen in each scenario is described based on the current condition and how resiliency, representation, and redundancy would be expected to change.

For the purpose of this assessment, we generally define viability as the ability to sustain a species over time; to do this, a species must have sufficient abundance and distribution to withstand changes in its biological (e.g., predators, disease) and physical (e.g., habitat loss and conversion) environment, and environmental stochasticity (e.g., flooding, drought).

We chose 25 and 50 years as the time frames for this Florida sandhill crane analysis because it is within the range of the available models for Florida development (Carr and Zwickr 2016, entire) and climate change forecasts (NOAA 2017, entire) that cover Florida and southern Georgia. These scenarios are the most probable consideration of the threats and their sources that have the potential to impact this subspecies at the population or rangewide scales in the future, including potential cumulative impacts. Potential future impacts associated with changing climatic conditions (i.e., estimates for precipitation and drought levels) were based on climate model projections downscaled for Florida and southern Georgia.

Changes in development are expected in the Florida-portion of the subspecies range. Thus, we looked at projected changes in Florida’s development in 2070 (50 year projection) as described by Florida 2070 (Carr and Zwickr 2016) report. Biologically, we note a 50-year timeframe includes four generations of 12.1 years for this subspecies. These are reasonable timeframes to consider, thus allowing adequate time to detect a downward trend and respond with appropriate conservation actions.

4.2 Future Scenarios

The table below (Table 4-1) describes three probable future scenarios. These scenarios consider potential impacts to the Florida sandhill crane population and habitats essential to its survival by land use changes, climate impacts, and other threats (i.e., mortalities from predation, collisions, and human interactions). The scenario grades of 1, 2, and 3 are based upon different levels and projections of environmental factors, land development changes, other threats, and the likely implementation of conservation actions, all of which are based on the best scientific and commercial information available at this time.

Table 4-1. Future scenarios for the Florida sandhill crane. Land Use Conservation Climate change Other Threats Prescribed Fire Change Actions SCENARIO 1 Reduced development trend Predation-same Habitat preservation, Low greenhouse Loss of 601,452 Vehicle and emission; stronger ac collisions- acquisition/easement- Prescribed fire on storms (increased of suitable reduced increases; conservation lands and magnitude) with habitat by 2070 Power line Permitting- ranch/farm/pasture/cropland heavier downpours; (50 yr) collisions- minimized impacts; increases to better manage less days higher than 2070 reduced Education/outreach for grassland-prairie species 95o F (35o C); wetter Alternative Disturbance- reduces crane/human rainy seasons (fall) (Figure 4-1 and reduced conflict Table 4-2)

SCENARIO 2 Reduced Moderate emissions; development Habitat preservation, stronger storms trend or current Predation-same and (increased Effectiveness of trend continues Vehicle acquisition/easement- magnitude) with management on existing Loss of 601,452 collisions-same increases; heavier downpours; conservation lands and ac to 945,624 ac Power line Permitting- temperature, ranch/farm/pasture/cropland of suitable collisions-same minimized impacts; precipitation, and continues at current range habitat by 2070 Disturbance- Education/outreach drought trends (50 yr) same reduces crane/human continue as current conflict trends

SCENARIO 3 High greenhouse emissions; increase in Current the average development temperature 3-8 oF Habitat preservation, trend continues (1.4-4.4 C) by 2100; Predation-higher and Effectiveness of or increases longer drought Vehicle acquisition/easement- management on existing Loss of 945,624 periods; higher collisions-higher decreases; protected and private lands ac or more of temperature days that Power line Permitting-increased decreases where suitable habitat would increase collisions-higher impacts; persistence of species and by 2070 (50 yr) evaporation of Disturbance- Education/outreach habitat deteriorates FL 2070 Trend wetlands; more higher reduces crane/human (Figure 4-1 and frequent, stronger conflict Table 4-2) storms (increased

magnitude) with heavier downpours

4.2.1 Development—Future Impacts

Possible future development and thus loss, conversion, or degradation of suitable habitat (freshwater marshes for nesting, foraging, and roosting, and adjacent to open upland areas for

foraging) is likely to continue across the range of the Florida sandhill crane (Table 4-2 and Figure 4-1). Suitable habitat that is projected to be lost in all three scenarios is primarily large tracts of privately-owned land including ranch/farm/pasture/cropland. The current development conditions have already impacted approximately 5.5 million ac (2.2 million ha) of suitable habitat (1974–2003), which infers a Florida sandhill crane population decline of 36 percent (Nesbitt and Hatchitt 2008, p. 41). More recently, an additional 1,219,220 ac (493,401 ha) of suitable habitat (2003–2016) has been lost, converted, or degraded and, thus, a continuation of the inferred population decline.

Future 25-year projections3 calculated by overlaying Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat (Nesbitt and Hatchitt 2008, updated by FWC 2016a, Figures 3-2, 7, 11, 12 and 4-1) with the Florida 2070 development projections (Carr and Zwick 2016) show that 472,812 ac (191,340 ha; 12.2 percent) will be lost, converted, or degraded by the year 2045 under the current development trend (Table 4-2 and Figure 4-1). A lower loss of 300,726 ac (121,699 ha; 7.8 percent) of suitable habitat is projected using the 2070 Alternative Trend as acquisitions, easements, and conservation actions are included in the future development formula. A significant portion of these conservation actions will be within the Everglades Headwaters NWR and Conservation Area and through the Florida Forever Program (see section 3.4.1). These would infer declines in the Florida sandhill crane population by 12.2 percent and 7.8 percent from current population levels over the next 25 years.

The current trend of development projects a 50-year loss of 945,624 ac (382,680 ha; 24.5 percent) of suitable habitat in Florida by 2070 (Table 4-2 and Figure 4-1). As previously described, this would infer a 25 percent decline in the population from current levels. Conservation influenced development projections over the next 50 years using the 2070 Alternative Trend would cause 601,452 ac (243,988 ha; 15.6 percent) loss of suitable habitat and thus an approximately 16 percent decline in the population over the next 50 years.

In Georgia, suitable habitat for the Florida sandhill cranes (approximately 0.5 percent of the overall suitable habitat currently available for the subspecies) is almost entirely within the Okefenokee NWR. Ranch/farm/pasture/cropland surrounding the refuge provide additional habitat; however, the crane’s use of this area is very low (T. Schneider 2018, pers. comm.). The human population trend, and thus development, in the southern half of Georgia shows growth of 13.1 percent (2000-2017)(Southern Georgia Regional Commission, 2018, p. 107). Florida sandhill cranes in Georgia represent less than five percent of the total population that rely on the Okefenokee Swamp NWR’s prairies. This portion of the subspecies’ population will remain protected within the Okefenokee NWR and the habitat will be managed as conservation lands.

3 A 25‐year projection was not available, and for this report it was calculated by dividing the 2070 value (50‐year projection) by two, thus a linear model, and we note that projected population growth in Florida may happen at different rates over the 25 and 50 timeframes.

Table 4-2. Model calculations of suitable habitat changes with various development scenarios in Florida using models from Nesbitt and Hatchitt 2008 (updated 2016) and Carr and Zwick 2016. Habitat Habitat Acres Florida Sandhill Crane Suitable Acres (hectares) Percent Habitat/Data (hectares) Lost 5,079,032

2003 (FWC Model) (2,055,411) 3,859,812 1,219,220 30.8 Current: 2016 (FWC Model updated) (1,562,010) (493,400) 3,559,086 300,726 7.8 2045 (25yrs) (FL 2070 Alternative ÷ 2) (1,440,311) (121,699) 3,387,000 472,812 12.2 2045 (25yrs) (FL 2070 Trend ÷ 2) (1,370,670) (191,340) 3,258,360 601,452 15.6 2070 (50yrs) (FL 2070 Alternative) (1,318,611) (243,988) 2,914,188 945,624 24.5 2070 (50yrs) (FL 2070 Trend) (1,179,330) (382,680)

Figure 4-1. Map of Florida’s developed lands and Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat by current conditions, 50-year (2070) projection of development with conservation, and 50-year (2070) projection based on current trends (FWC 2016a; Carr and Zwick 2016).

4.2.2 Precipitation and Heavy Rain Events—Future Impacts

Many models project increases in precipitation during the fall and winter across central Florida (Service 2017b, pp. 2–5; Carter et al. 2014, p. 399). Projections of future changes in precipitation show substantial shifts in where and how precipitation will fall (Service 2017b, pp. 4– 5). Models are in agreement regarding changes (increase in intensity) in tropical storm and hurricane rainfall events (June- November) (Runkle et al. 2017, p. 4; Service 2017b, p. 4). Greater rainfall rates are expected with about a 20 percent increase near the center of storms (Service 2017b, p. 4). Scientists continue to research the expectation of precipitation changes in other severe storms (Service 2017b, pp. 4–5). Dry consecutive days are expected to increase up to 20 percent in Florida by 2100 (Service 2017b, pp. 4–5). While dry conditions are expected to increase in the summer across the subspecies’ range, fall conditions are Figure 4-2. Florida sandhill crane adult and expected to be wetter (Runkle et al. 2017, p. hatchlings. Photo credit: FWC. 3; Service 2017b, pp. 4–5 ). This is important because winter and early spring is when Florida sandhill crane breeding season starts. Additional precipitation from tropical weather systems in the summer and fall, and a wetter fall rainy season, would provide optimal water level conditions in the nesting marshes.

Climate simulations using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models indicate changes of precipitation seasonally for Florida and southern Georgia (Table 4-3). Projections for southern Georgia and northern Florida regions are for wetter fall and dryer winter seasons (Service 2017b, p. 5; Carter et al. 2014). In central Florida, projections are for wetter fall and winter seasons (Service 2017b, p. 5; Carter et al. 2014), which may lead to adequate nesting conditions if nesting marshes hold the water during the breeding season. If drier rainy seasons occur compared to current conditions, there is potential for breeding marshes to dry before Florida sandhill cranes are able to complete nesting activity (i.e., egg laying, incubation, and hatching chicks). Prolonged periods of drought could also cause hydrological changes in the breeding marshes and conversion in vegetative cover from herbaceous to woody shrub, thus reducing the habitat suitability and increasing risks from predation. Heavy downpours may be beneficial to the subspecies if the events are prolonged enough to maintain breeding marsh water levels throughout the nesting portion of the breeding cycle. However, heavy rain events while nests are active can flood and cause abandonment and failure.

Table 4-3. Rainfall simulations using the CMIP5 models for regions within Florida and Georgia (Service 2017b, p. 5; Carter et al. 2014). Regions Winter Spring Summer Fall Southern Georgia 0 to -10% 0 to +10% -10 to -20% +10 to +20% North Florida 0 to -10% 0 to +10% -10 to -20% +10 to +20% Central Florida 0 to +10% 0 to -10% -10 to -20% +10 to +20% South Florida 0 to +10% 0 to -10% -20 to -30% +10 to +20%

4.2.3 Drought—Future Impacts

There is a high likelihood that severe drought and climate-related shifts in precipitation will continue to affect the Florida sandhill crane. Precipitation projections are less certain, but many models project decreases in precipitation during the summer across the range of the Florida sandhill crane (Carter et al. 2014, p. 399). Projections of future changes in precipitation show substantial shifts in where and how precipitation will fall (Service 2017b, pp. 4–5). Models are in agreement regarding changes in tropical storm and hurricane rainfall events (Runkle et al. 2017, p. 3; Service 2017b, p. 4). Greater rainfall rates are expected with about a 20 percent increase near the center of storms (Service 2017, p. 4). Scientists continue to research the expectation of precipitation changes in other severe storms (Service 2017b, pp. 4–5). Dry, consecutive days are expected to increase up to 20 percent by 2100 (Runkle et al. 2017, p. 3; Service 2017b, pp. 4–5). While dry conditions are expected to increase in the summer across the range, fall conditions are expected to be wetter (Runkle et al. 2017, p. 3; Service 2017b, pp. 4–5). This is important because the breeding season follows the rainy season when the nesting marshes have the highest water levels and provide the most protection from predators.

Due to their dependence on wetlands for roosting, foraging, and nesting, Florida sandhill cranes are vulnerable to droughts and their effects on vegetation structure that the subspecies relies on. Extended droughts and lower water levels can lead to succession from herbaceous to woody wetland vegetation (FWC 2013b, p. 5), which reduces or eliminates the suitability of the wetland as nesting, foraging, or roosting habitat. Low water levels leave nests and young vulnerable to predation and impact nesting success, reproduction, and recruitment (FWC 2013a, p. 11; Cox et al. 2016, p. 11). With no water in territorial nesting marshes, Florida sandhill cranes will forgo nesting.

Increased duration and intensity of drought due to climate change can also lead to changes in natural fire regimes that would affect both wetland and upland vegetative structure. In turn, this will negatively affect/degrade its suitability for Florida sandhill crane use.

We evaluated the best available historical weather data and the subspecies biology to determine the likelihood of effects that drought has had and will continue to have on Florida sandhill cranes. Severe droughts are a current and future threat for the Florida sandhill cranes. The likelihood that severe droughts and climate-related shifts in precipitation will continue to affect the species is likely. Regardless, projected wetter falls and winters could provide adequate breeding marsh conditions in the late winter and early spring; however, extreme or extended drought conditions could lead to a shortened breeding season.

4.3 Scenario 1

Many factors that influence habitat conditions of Florida sandhill cranes are expected to improve under Scenario 1. Climate change effects are predicted to be minimal under the low emissions models (Service 2017b); thus, effects of storms, precipitation events, and droughts may counteract each other. Land use changes are also predicted to have less of an impact due to the implementation of conservation minded development, and in this Figure 4-3. Florida sandhill crane scenario, the purchase of more land for conservation is considered (Carr and Zwickr 2016, p. 6), the and hatchling. Photo credit: FWC. difference between the Alternative Trend vs. Trend projection, thus suitable habitat not developed). Land use changes are expected to continue at a reduced rate, but occurring with conservation of Florida sandhill cranes in mind. This possibility projects a 50-year loss of up to 15.6 percent of suitable Florida sandhill crane habitat (Table 4-2 FL 2070 Alternative row and Figure 4-1 2070 Alternative Scenario map). This scenario predicts a wetter beginning to the breeding seasons and increased conservation throughout suitable habitat areas, including within agricultural and suburban areas. Accordingly, it is expected that the subspecies would continue to be stable or have a positive response, and continue to occupy its current range.

Resiliency This scenario projects conditions beneficial to Florida sandhill cranes, and current conservation actions improve habitat conditions by the predictive time horizon. The Florida sandhill crane population is predicted to lose up to 15.6 percent of the habitat but remain extant (Table 4-2 FL 2070 Alternative row and Figure 4-1 2070 Alternative Scenario map), and conservation lands, ranch/farm/pasture/cropland, and new suburban habitat conditions would improve due to conservation practices such as use of prescribed fire. Specifically, the Florida sandhill crane is predicted to be highly resilient and central Florida will remain as the stronghold of the subspecies. No extirpations within the range occur nor are predicted under this scenario.

Representation Florida sandhill cranes will retain current levels of representation and potentially increase their level of representation on conservations lands, agricultural lands, and suburban habitats throughout the range because habitat conditions would improve through increased conservation awareness and actions, such as prescribed fire. As such, the subspecies will continue to remain extant throughout its entire range. The stronghold of the subspecies in central Florida is predicted to have high resiliency.

Redundancy Florida sandhill cranes will maintain the existing level of redundancy, i.e., one large, widespread population with no reduction of its range. Thus, the large extent of the range and the core in central Florida is predicted to have a high resiliency. The subspecies will continue to be represented within the entire 12,039 mi2 (31,180.9 km2) range of southern Georgia and peninsular Florida, from the Okefenokee Swamp to the Everglades.

4.4 Scenario 2

Factors that influence the population and habitat conditions of Florida sandhill cranes (Figure 4-4) are expected to stay the same (i.e., the subspecies response would not worsen and not improve) or continue at current trends under Scenario 2. Under the current greenhouse emissions projections, climate change is predicted to be moderate, stronger storms (increased magnitude) with heavier downpours are expected; wetter fall and winter are anticipated, along with increases in temperature and prolonged droughts (Service 2017b, unpublished data). Land use changes are expected to continue, Figure 4-4. Adult Florida possibly at a lower rate due to conservation easements, land sandhill cranes. acquisitions, and through the implementation of conservation Photo credit: FWC. measures associated with land development activities; we anticipate the potential loss, conversion, or degradation of 15.6 to 24.5 percent of suitable Florida sandhill crane habitat (Table 4-2 FL 2070 Alternative and Trend rows and Figure 4-1 2070 Alternative and Trend Scenario mapsv). A wetter breeding season is expected but may not be enough to counteract frequent prolonged droughts, thus possibly impacting productivity and causing degradation of herbaceous nesting marshes due to potentially lowered water levels and encroachment of woody vegetation, which increases the risk of predation. Prescribed fire is used on conservation lands but not to the extent that it could be.

Resiliency This scenario projects either the continuation of current conditions or slightly deteriorated conditions. Florida sandhill crane breeding conditions will be adequate (i.e., resource needs as defined in Section 2.8 will be met), and the Florida sandhill crane population will persist at current or reduced numbers due to some habitat loss, conversion, or degradation, prolonged droughts, reduced reproductive success, and increased mortality in young and adults due to predation. No portions of the subspecies range are predicted to become extirpated, and the population is predicted to remain extant.

Representation The Florida sandhill crane will retain current levels of representation. Florida sandhill cranes will continue to remain extant throughout their range, with potential of a decrease in productivity during prolonged droughts. The stronghold in central Florida is predicted to have high resiliency, while the northern portion of the range will have moderate to low resiliency, the latter because the northern portion of the subspecies range will become increasingly isolated from the core of the Florida sandhill population.

Redundancy The Florida sandhill crane will maintain the current level of redundancy, i.e., one large, widespread population with no reduction of its range. Thus, the large extent of the stronghold of central Florida is predicted to have high resilience but possibly fewer individuals. The subspecies will continue to be represented within the entire 12,039 mi2 (31,180.9 km2) range of southern Georgia and peninsular Florida, from the Okefenokee Swamp to the Everglades.

4.5 Scenario 3

Climatic conditions and habitat conditions for Florida sandhill cranes (Figure 4-5) are expected to deteriorate significantly under Scenario 3. Under the increased greenhouse emissions projections, climate change is predicted to cause stronger storms (increased magnitude) with heavier downpours, wetter rainy seasons (fall and winter), changes in fire regimes, and more

frequent prolonged droughts (Service 2017b, unpublished data). The development trend Figure 4-5. Adult Florida sandhill continues as projected or increases, and other land crane. Photo credit: FWC. use changes for the potential loss, conversion, or degradation of more than 25 percent of Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat (Table 4-2 FL 2070 Trend row and Figure 4-1 2070 Trend Scenario map). Additionally, no more lands are conserved than what is currently conserved, and management actions that would benefit suitable habitat (e.g., prescribed fire) would occur less frequently on existing conservation and agricultural lands. A wetter breeding season is expected but may not be enough to counteract frequent prolonged droughts, thus impacting productivity and recruitment throughout the subspecies’ population, and causing degradation of herbaceous nesting marshes due to lowered water levels and encroachment of woody vegetation in the marshes and adjacent uplands.

Resiliency Projections indicate that current conditions will deteriorate into the future. Although uncertain at this time, it is probable that Florida sandhill crane breeding conditions would deteriorate in some portions of the range. Those portions experiencing a substantial degree of land use changes would have a correspondingly decreased value of suitable habitat conditions. Changes under this scenario will impact habitat rangewide, but the Florida sandhill crane will continue to be found in most of its range. The stronghold of the population in central Florida will remain moderately resilient under this scenario.

Representation The Florida sandhill crane will retain representation throughout most of its range. Florida sandhill cranes will continue to remain extant but with a potential decrease in productivity and recruitment, and thus a decrease in the abundance and distribution of the population. The stronghold in central Florida is predicted to have moderate resiliency, while the northern portion of the population will become isolated and have low resiliency (Figure 4-1). Because 75–85 percent of the known population is found on private lands (FWC 2013a, p. 7; FWC 2013b, p. 7), land use changes under this scenario will have a large impact on the subspecies; however, it will still be represented throughout most of its range, but in lower numbers.

Redundancy The level of redundancy for Florida sandhill crane populations will decrease because the overall population size that is currently large and widespread would decrease in size. Regardless, the central Florida stronghold would remain resilient.

CHAPTER 5 – SYNTHESIS It is likely that the projected habitat suitability and population changes (e.g., loss of some suitable habitat, increased mortality in suburban areas) attributable to development and changes in environmental factors is not likely to greatly reduce the existing population of Florida sandhill cranes (Figure 4-6). At this time, the best available scientific and commercial information suggest that the habitat and population loss attributable to development and changes in climatic factors (i.e., drought, fire regimes, precipitation patterns, and heavy rain events) are not likely to greatly reduce the range or the population of Florida sandhill cranes).

Any habitat loss, conversion, or degradation, based upon a 50-year projection worst-case scenario, will likely impact approximately 25 percent (possibly higher) of the currently known suitable Florida sandhill crane habitat (Table 4-2). We have moderate confidence in the known current condition of populations across the range based on their use of conserved lands and ranch/farm/pasture/croplands. However, Florida sandhill cranes have become increasingly common in suburban areas, golf courses, recreational parks, and other developed areas that support shallow marshes and adjacent open uplands. Additional information is needed about the subspecies’ reproductive and overall success of using these areas. The best available information suggests they are adapting and somewhat successful (Cox et al. 2016, p. 11), but this needs to be further substantiated. It is Figure 4-6. Adult and hatchling also noted that we do not know the threshold density Florida sandhill cranes. Photo of suburban development beyond which development becomes detrimental. credit: FWC.

Our analysis suggests that under the different scenarios that are most likely for the future, Florida sandhill cranes will continue to occupy the current range, albeit as a smaller (i.e., less abundant) population than current conditions described herein. This subspecies’ population is fully distributed across all of its current range. Drought is expected to continue to play a role as a threat to this subspecies, but to what extent Florida sandhill cranes will adapt to the prolonged droughts, and thus how this may affect its overall resiliency in the future, cannot be predicted at this time. Wetter falls and winters may allow for successful breeding, which primarily occurs during late winter and spring. Habitat projections for the next 50 years suggest development will likely continue with an estimated 16 to 25 percent (maybe higher under Scenario 3) of the current suitable habitat becoming lost, converted, or degraded. We are confident that the Florida sandhill crane will continue to occupy its current range in the future within both natural and

converted habitats that contain the resources that each life stage depends upon (Section 2.8, above). Without the implementation of conservation-minded development and implementation of important habitat-related tools on conservation and agricultural lands, especially (but not limited to) prescribed fire, the abundance of Florida sandhill cranes will likely be lower than current estimates. One-fourth of the Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat currently occurs on conservation lands (Figure 3-11) that are managed at varying degrees with prescribed fire as the primary (and most beneficial) management tool. The quantity and distribution of conservation lands with suitable habitat are expected to increase through acquisitions and easements, potentially protecting an additional 5 to 10 percent of the total suitable habitat in the future through efforts like the Everglades Headwaters NWR and Conservation Area initiative (Figure 3-12).

Drought is expected to play a significant role as a continued threat for Florida sandhill cranes; however, we are unclear how the subspecies will adapt to prolonged droughts or how resilient the population may be from potential drought-related impacts in the future.

Table 5-1. Predicted response of Florida Sandhill Crane population under three scenarios.

Current Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Florida Sandhill Stable to Stable to Stable to Stable to Crane Increasing Increasing Decreasing Decreasing

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APPENDIX A. OTHER FLORIDA SANDHILL CRANE GRAPHICS.

Appendix Figure 1. Breeding Bird Survey route-specific population trends of Florida sandhill cranes during the 1966–2016. Each polygon represents the neighborhood of each route, with the polygon borders defined by the proximity to neighboring routes. Blue circles represent the estimated number of birds observed per route from 2016 as derived from it population trend. Cox, W.A., T. Dellinger, and B. Tornwall. 2016. Assessment of factors that influence local population trends of the Florida sandhill crane using Breeding Bird Survey data. Gainesville, Florida. p. 21.

Appendix Figure 2. Breeding Bird Survey (1966–2016) Florida sandhill crane routes surveyed and proportion of routes with cranes by year. The proportion of all routes with Florida sandhill cranes on the left vertical axis (black circles) and the total number routes surveyed each year on the right vertical axis (gray bars). Cox, W.A., T. Dellinger, and B. Tornwall. 2016. Assessment of factors that influence local population trends of the Florida sandhill crane using Breeding Bird Survey data. Gainesville, Florida. p. 20.

Appendix Figure 3. Fall recruitment of Florida sandhill cranes on two roadsides surveys as a function of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). PSDI values below zero indicate drier than normal conditions. Cox, W.A., T. Dellinger, and B. Tornwall. 2016. Assessment of factors that influence local population trends of the Florida sandhill crane using Breeding Bird Survey data. Gainesville, Florida. p. 22.

Appendix Figure 4. Map of Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat (FWC 2016b) and current Florida development enlarged to show that ninety percent of the habitat occurs in 20 Florida counties.

Appendix Figure 5. Map of Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat (FWC 2016b) with current and future projections of Florida development enlarged to show that ninety percent of the habitat occurs in 20 Florida counties.

Appendix Figure 6. Future wildfire susceptibility based upon climate projections. Collins et al. (2017) Climate and weather extremes. In Florida's climate: Changes, variations, & impacts (E.P. Chassignet, J.W. Jones, V. Misra, and J. Obeysekera, editors), pp. 579–615).

Appendix Figure 7. Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat and proximity to Federal, State, County, local and private conservation lands.

Appendix Figure 8. Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat by Florida and Georgia Counties and percent of suitable habitat located within a county.

Appendix Figure 9. Florida sandhill crane suitable habitat and proximity to U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s National Wildlife Refuges.