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GSK Consumer Healthcare (SMIBC) Rating : Buy | 6062 Target : | 7193 Target Period : 12-15 Months Health Consciousness, Capex to Drive Growth Potential Upside : 19%

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GSK Consumer Healthcare (SMIBC) Rating : Buy | 6062 Target : | 7193 Target Period : 12-15 Months Health Consciousness, Capex to Drive Growth Potential Upside : 19% Initiating Coverage July 13, 2015 Rating Matrix GSK Consumer Healthcare (SMIBC) Rating : Buy | 6062 Target : | 7193 Target Period : 12-15 months Health consciousness, capex to drive growth Potential Upside : 19% GSK Consumer Healthcare (GCHL) is one of the largest malt beverage YoY Growth (%) companies in India with strong brands like Horlicks, Boost, Maltova & Viva. (YoY Growth) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Over the years, it has been a leader in the malt beverage market with a Net Sales 52.7 (11.5) 10.9 15.3 EBITDA 52.2 (16.3) 20.6 17.4 combined volume market share of 66%. The company is also involved in Net Profit 54.5 (13.5) 18.4 17.0 selling & distributing some OTC products like Crocin, Eno, Sensodyne, EPS (Rs) 54.5 (13.5) 18.4 17.0 Iodex & Breathe Right of GlaxoSmithKline Asia Pvt Ltd and GlaxoSmithKline * FY14 numbers are for 15 months Pharmaceuticals and generates auxiliary income. The brand equity of Current & target multiple Horlicks & Boost, rapid pace of growth of OTC products & introduction of FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E newer OTC products has led to revenue and PAT CAGR of 17.5% & 20.2%, P/E 37.8 43.7 36.9 31.5 respectively, in CY09-FY15. We believe the malt beverage industry in India Target P/E 42.4 49.0 41.4 35.4 is poised to witness swift growth led by higher disposable income, increase EV / EBITDA 27.1 31.8 26.3 22.4 in rural penetration & premiumisation. We expect the company will witness P/BV 14.1 12.1 10.3 8.7 a revenue & PAT CAGR of 15.3% & 17.7%, respectively, in FY15-17E. We RoNW (%) 37.2 27.6 27.8 27.7 initiate coverage on the company with a BUY recommendation. RoCE (%) 44.7 31.6 31.6 31.4 Undisputed market leadership * FY14 numbers are for 15 months Stock Data GCHL has been a market leader in the HFD business with a market share of Bloomberg/Reuters Code SKB IN / GLSM.BO 58% by value (66% by volume) in a ~| 6000 crore industry. The malt based Sensex 27,661.4 beverage market is estimated to have grown 2.7x from ~| 2200 crore in Average volumes 1,224.0 2009 to ~| 6000 crore in 2014 and is expected to reach | 7800 crore by Market Cap (Rs crore) 25,494.4 2016. GCHL, being the established player in this segment, has benefitted as 52 week H/L 6575 / 4620 a result of this growth in the HFD industry. Equity Capital (Rs crore) 42.1 Auxiliary income augurs well Promoter's Stake (%) 72.5 FII Holding (%) 10.6 GCHL also earns auxiliary income apart from the sale of products DII Holding (%) 2.4 manufactured by it (Horlicks, Boost, Maltova, Viva). The company earns business auxiliary service commission from certain group companies for Comparative return matrix (%) services rendered towards selling and distribution of the latter’s products. Return % 1M 3M 6M 12M Auxiliary income witnessed strong CAGR of 27.1% from | 46.7 crore in GSK Consumer (1.9) (3.7) 5.8 29.1 CY09 to | 154.9 crore in FY15. We expect it to grow at 18.9% CAGR to Nestle India (1.5) (15.8) (6.7) 20.0 HUL 9.8 (3.2) 4.3 42.6 | 219 crore in FY17E. Colgate 4.9 (7.2) 3.7 29.3 Strong parentage with renowned global brands Price movement Strong brands of GlaxoSmithKline Plc, parent of GSK Consumer Healthcare, have always been an added advantage for the company. It has launched 7,000 10,000 many products in India with similar brand names (Sensodyne, Parodontax). 6,000 8,000 We believe it would continue to launch new products from its parent’s 5,000 product portfolio and would continue to leverage its existing brand equity. 4,000 6,000 Earnings growth justifies valuation 3,000 4,000 2,000 Currently, the stock is trading at 31.5x its FY17E earnings of | 192.2/share, 2,000 1,000 15% premium to its historical average. With strong growth in revenue & 0 0 earnings at 15.3% & 17.7%, respectively, during FY15-17E, we have valued the stock on a triangulated value of P/E, P/sales and DCF methodology, Apr-11 Apr-13 Apr-15 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jun-10 Jun-12 Jun-14 assigning a target price of | 7193/share. Nov-10 Nov-12 Nov-14 Aug-11 Aug-13 Price (L.H.S) Nifty (R.H.S) Exhibit 1: Key financials Research Analyst (| Crore) CY12 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Net Sales 3,187.5 4,868.6 4,307.6 4,775.6 5,505.6 EBITDA 573.4 872.8 730.1 880.2 1,033.3 Sanjay Manyal Net Profit 436.7 674.7 583.6 690.8 808.3 [email protected] EPS (|) 103.8 160.4 138.8 164.3 192.2 Parineeta Rajgarhia P/E (x) 58.4 37.8 43.7 36.9 31.5 [email protected] Price / Book (x) 18.7 14.1 12.1 10.3 8.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 41.9 27.1 31.8 26.3 22.4 RoCE (%) 39.5 44.7 31.6 31.6 31.4 RoE (%) 32.1 37.2 27.6 27.8 27.7 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research FY14 numbers are for 15 months ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Shareholding pattern (FY15) Company background Shareholding Pattern Holding (%) GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare (GCHL), headquartered in Gurgaon, Promoters 72.5 is one of the leading consumer healthcare companies in India. The Institutional investors 13.0 company traces its roots to Beecham (India) Pvt Ltd. in 1948. Institutions Others 14.6 hold 12.95% of its shares, Horlicks Ltd holds 43.16% of its shares while GlaxoSmithKline Pte Ltd holds 29.29% of the shares. This translates to a promoter holding of 72.46% in the company. The public shareholding is at 14.59%, as on FY15. GCHL serves the Indian market as well as international Institutional holding trend (%) markets of Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal, Middle East, Kenya, Malaysia, Myanmar and Pakistan. 14.0 11.7 12.0 11.7 11.5 In its early years, Beecham (India) Pvt Ltd manufactured products like 12.0 10.6 Brylcreem hair cream, Eno fruit salt, Pure Silvikrin, Silvikrin hair dressing, 10.0 Macleans toothpaste and Macleans brand indigestion powder with technical 8.0 and marketing know-how from Beecham Group Ltd, UK. After beginning its 6.0 India operations as early as 1948, the company used to import its now 4.0 2.4 1.2 1.6 ubiquitous health drink ‘Horlicks’ (manufactured by Horlicks Ltd, England), 2.0 0.8 0.8 bottle it and sell it in India. The year 1955 saw a change in the import policy 0.0 following which the import of Horlicks was stopped. It was in 1958 that the Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 company started manufacturing Horlicks in India under the name Hindustan FII DII Milkfood Manufacturers Pvt Ltd, promoted by Horlicks Ltd. GCHL is currently the largest player in the health food drinks (HFD) category. The company has been able to build a leadership position in the nutritional food segment with its product offerings viz. Horlicks, Boost, Maltova and Viva. GCHL also has Crocin, Eno and Iodex in its over the counter (OTC) portfolio. The company is also present in the premium toothpaste category with Sensodyne. GCHL also has Breathe Right nasal strips in its portfolio. The company manufactures and sells only products in its nutritional food segment. Also, GCHL derives business auxiliary service commission from certain group companies for services rendered towards selling and distribution of the latter’s products. HFD has been the core competency of GCHL in India. The company’s flagship brand, Horlicks, commands a market share of 52.6% while Boost enjoys 13.4% market share. The nearest competitor, Cadbury’s Bournvita, has a market share of ~17% by volume in the above category. Thus, overall, the company occupies a dominant market position with 66% share by volume and 58% by value in FY15. The company had generated more than 90% of its revenues from malt based beverages alone in FY14. Boost is one of the leading malt based HFDs available in chocolate flavour. It was developed by the company's R&D team in 1974 and launched in 1975-76. In south India, Boost has a market share of ~26%. In FY00, the company acquired two new brands Viva and Maltova along with their patents and trademarks from Jagatjit Industries for | 86.25 crore. This was done to consolidate its presence in the HFD segment and help it provide greater choice to its customers. The company has zero debt on its books. GCHL has its own manufacturing facilities at Nabha in Punjab, Rajahmundry in Andhra Pradesh and Sonepat in Haryana. The company’s strong position across its business has led its total operating income to grow at a CAGR of 17.5% from | 1921.5 crore in CY09 to | 4307.6 crore in FY15. Profitability for the same period grew at a CAGR of 20.2% from | 232.8 crore to | 583.6 crore. ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2 Exhibit 2: Estimated GSK Consumer Healthcare revenue break-up (FY15) GSK Consumer Healthcare Gross Sales (|4531 crore) Malt-based foods Packaged foods Business aux income & misc. income ~91% of the Sales (|4126 crore) ~5% of the Sales ~4% of the Sales (|229 crore) (|176 crore) Horlicks Boost Maltova & Viva ~76% of malt-based foods ~21% of malt-based foods constitute rest of malt- sales (~|3150 crore) sales (~|850 crore) based foods sales Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 3: Evolution of the company Import of Horlicks Name again changed Promoter company Incorporated as was stopped to SmithKline Rechristened as raises its stake in Beecham (India) followed by India visit Launch of malt- Beecham Consumer GlaxoSmithKline GSK Consumer Pvt.
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