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HINDUSTAN UNILEVER Volume and Margin Recover; Sustainability Is the Key

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RESULT UPDATE HINDUSTAN UNILEVER Volume and margin recover; sustainability is the key India Equity Research| Consumer Goods Hindustan Unilever (HUL) pleasantly surprised with marginal beat on EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS Q1FY15 volume growth at 5% YoY (adjusted for transportation strike in Absolute Rating REDUCE the base) and higher margin. Key positives were: (1) strong sales growth Rating Relative to Sector Underperformer of 13% YoY in soaps & detergents (6 brands of HUL grew in double digits Risk Rating Relative to Sector Low versus GCPL’s 2% YoY growth in soaps), 15% YoY growth in personal Sector Relative to Market Underweight products (PP; highest in past 8 quarters), and 19% YoY growth in packaged foods (PF; highest in past 11 quarters); (2) double-digit growth MARKET DATA (R: HLL.BO, B: HUVR IN) in Fair & Lovely (FAL), as highlighted by us earlier; (3) recovery in PP CMP : INR 687 margin; and (4) EBITDA margin rose ~70bp YoY post adjustment in salary Target Price : INR 637 costs despite higher royalty (~50bps). Key negative was muted growth in 52-week range (INR) : 692 / 536 Axe and Pepsodent. Maintain ‘REDUCE’ on valuations. Share in issue (mn) : 2,163.1 M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 1,486 / 24,706 This report also contains Q1FY15 and Q4FY14 conference call highlights. Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 1,522.3 Margins improved in S&D, PP and PF SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) Margins improved across segments barring beverages. Employee cost includes one- Current Q4FY14 Q3FY14 Promoters * 67.2 67.2 67.3 time credit of INR324.4mn owing to unutilised pension corpus relating to earlier years. Other costs were down 17bps YoY despite rise in royalty payment due to savings on MF's, FI's & BK’s 4.1 4.1 3.3 FII's 14.6 14.1 14.8 better supply chain management. Others 14.1 14.5 14.6 * Promoters pledged shares : NIL Key takeaways from conference call (% of share in issue) Promotional intensity has subsided in soaps, remains high in oral care. Media intensity for sector has reduced leading to cut in A&P spends, but HUL remains competitive across PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) EW Consumer segments. Sachets grew at higher rate, especially in shampoos. Modern trade remains Stock Nifty challenging, but is seeing signs of stabilisation (new store openings a key monitorable). Goods Index FAL posted strong recovery with double-digit growth, but Pepsodent, Axe and Clear were 1 month (0.5) (0.9) (1.1) relative laggards. Pressure on raw materials continues with PFAD up 44% YoY, ~1% QoQ. 3 months 3.4 11.6 (0.7) 12 months 4.1 29.5 (0.7) Outlook and valuations: Cautious; maintain ‘REDUCE’ We remain positive on HUL’s longer term growth, though sustainability of volume growth and margins remain key monitorables. Recent run up in the stock largely Abneesh Roy +91 22 6620 3141 factors in the Q1FY15 beat. On valuations, we maintain ‘REDUCE/SU’ on the stock. [email protected] Financials (INR mn) Pooja Lath Year to March Q1FY15 Q1FY14 % change Q4FY14 % change FY14 FY15E FY16E +91 22 6620 3075 [email protected] Net rev. 77,163 68,090 13.3 70,941 8.8 292,333 329,632 371,785 Tanmay Sharma EBITDA 13,165 10,856 21.3 10,776 22.2 47,417 54,811 60,845 +91 22 4040 7586 Profit 10,569 10,193 3.7 8,721 21.2 39,456 41,670 45,915 [email protected] Dil. EPS (INR) 4.7 4.1 14.9 3.8 22.3 17.1 19.1 21.2 Alankar Garude Diluted P/E (x) 40.1 36.0 32.4 +91 22 6623 3301 EV/EBITDA (x) 30.3 26.1 23.4 [email protected] ROAE (%) 115.8 106.2 99.3 * Quarterly nos. standalone; annual nos. consolidated July 28, 2014 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited Consumer Goods HUL Q1FY15 concall | Key takeaways Growth: HUL’s like-to-like volume growth (adjusted for transport strike in Q1FY14) is 5% YoY in Q1FY15. In all its segments, HUL reported double digit growth and grew ahead of the market. Overall demand scenario continued to remain subdued both in value and volume terms. Discretionary categories continue to remain under pressure. Urban and rural growth: Both rural and urban growth is coming down. However, gap between rural and urban growth has been reducing. Premiumisation: As premiumisation is coming off, demand for high margin packs is coming off. Unless, premiumisation comes back, margins will remain under pressure. Soaps & detergents: There was broad-based growth in the soaps category in Q1FY15. Judicious pricing was done by HUL to tackle rising input prices. Surf delivered one of its strongest quarters. Personal products (PP): PP represents a large opportunity and will be a growth driver as market and consumers evolve. Overall, this business appears healthy. As and when markets look up, personal products will do well. Growth in PP category in base quarter was low, which has helped report growth in Q1FY15. HUL’s endeavour remains to be ahead of market at every point of time. FAL coming back has helped margins. There have been lower A&P spends in this category in Q1FY15. These two factors have helped margin expansion in the PP category. Post re-launch, FAL has delivered double digit growth. Ponds has also done well. Overall, skin care delivered strong performance in Q1FY15. Volume growth has decelerated in the past few quarters in the toothpaste segment for HUL. Close-up is doing well. Pepsodent’s growth is still subdued and there is work left to be done to revive Pepsodent’s growth. Packaged foods: Performance in this category has been very decent over past several quarters. Packaged foods is still a very nascent category in India. HUL will continue to invest and build this market. Knorr’s performance can be improved further. Innovative campaign helped deliver growth in Kissan. Kwality walls and Magnum performed quite well. Standout performances in Q1FY15: Lakme, Surf and the skin cleansing portfolio delivered standout performances. Possible areas of improvement: Pepsodent, Clear shampoo and Axe are brands where improvement is needed. Modern trade: Growth rates are significantly lower than peak growth. Same store sales growth has also come off, but seems to be stabilising. It will take at least one quarter before the management can decide whether growth in modern trade has stabilized. New store openings is a key monitorable for growth in modern trade. This channel plays a key role in aiding premiumisation. Perfect villages: There are ~9,000 villages under Perfect village. Perfect Villages have been growing at a faster pace as compared to other villages. 2 Edelweiss Securities Limited Hindustan Unilever Sachets: In urban as well as rural areas, sachets have grown faster than pack format. Aspiration of consumers to buy branded products is being witnessed by HUL. But access to premium products is happening via a sachet. Raw material costs: Raw material costs continue to be high. PFAD prices are high in both INR and USD terms. A&P: Media intensity (as measured by GRPs) has come down; however competitive intensity (innovations) continues to remain high. Now, the competition is more rational. Lower media intensity points towards little or no impact of 12 minute ad cap. Ad spends are moving from TV to other media. Promotional intensity in soaps has come off, but promotional intensity remains high in oral segment. Other expenses: Supply chain control costs have helped deliver efficiencies. These efficiencies lead to higher volume, which helps in operating leverage. Pureit: Pureit has achieved breakeven in last two years. HUL is the market leader in this category in the retail segment. Pureit Ultima has done very well. Unilever as well as HUL are very serious about this category. Online retailing: Online is very small part of HUL’s business. Right now, HUL does not supply directly to online retailing. Going ahead, the management feels that online retailing has immense potential. One-time credit of INR324.4mn in employee costs: HUL uses a defined contribution scheme for calculating pension liability. Pension policy states that if an employee has completed more than 5 years in the company, he/she is eligible for pension. This means that there is no pension for employees who leave the company within 5 years. Hence, an adjustment for these employees (who leave the firm within 5 years) has to be done. This adjustment was done by HUL in Q1FY15 for prior periods as well. Hence, it can be regarded as a one-off. Capex: HUL is not worried about competitors’ capex plans. Usually, there has been a steady trend of HUL’s capex. Tax rate in FY15: 29-30%. Dividend payout: Dividend payout will continue to remain steady. Further increase in Unilever stake: This decision is at the discretion of Unilever management and HUL does not have any say in this. Unilever | Product launches that can potentially happen in India in our view 1. Compressed deodorants: Present in four European countries 2. Regenerate enamel science toothpaste: Launched in UK 3. Persil dual action capsules: Launched in three European countries 4. Knorr Baking Bags: Present in 40 countries 3 Edelweiss Securities Limited Consumer Goods Compressed deodorants: Present in four European countries • Unilever launched compressed deodorants (innovation in deodorants in over 40 year) in four European countries. • The new cans are 75ml, half the size of existing cans, but deliver the same amount of protection and fragrance in the same spray time as the full sized can.
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