THE CRISIS OF DEMOCRATIC GOVERNANCE IN THE ANDES Woodrow Wilson Center Reports on the Americas • #2 Edited by Cynthia Arnson W THE CRISIS OF oodr DEMOCRATIC ow W GOVERNANCE ilson Center Repor IN THE ANDES Fernando Cepeda Ulloa Adrián Bonilla ts on the Americas • #2 Carlos Basombrío Michael Coppedge Francisco Leal J. Samuel Fitch Miriam Kornblith Eduardo Gamarra Bruce Bagley Catherine Conaghan Luigi Einaudi Cynthia McClintock Edited by Cynthia Arnson Latin American Program WOODROW WILSON INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR SCHOLARS LEE H. HAMILTON, DIRECTOR BOARD OF TRUSTEES Joseph A. Cari, Jr., Chair; Steven Alan Bennett, Vice Chair. Public Members: James H. Billington, Librarian of Congress; John W. Carlin, Archivist of the United States; William R. Ferris, Chair, National Endowment for the Humanities; Roderick R. Paige, Secretary, U.S. Department of Education; Colin L. Powell, Secretary, U.S. Department of State; Lawrence M. Small, Secretary, Smithsonian Institution; Tommy G. Thompson, Secretary, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Private Citizen Members: Carol Cartwright, John H. Foster, Jean L. Hennessey, Daniel L. Lamaute, Doris O. Matsui, Thomas R. Reedy, Nancy M. Zirkin. WILSON COUNCIL B.B. Andersen, Cyrus A. Ansary, Charles F. Barber, Lawrence E. Bathgate II, Joseph C. Bell, Thomas J. Buckholtz, Conrad Cafritz, Nicola L. Caiola, Raoul L. Carroll, Scott Carter, Albert V. Casey, Peter B. Clark, William T. Coleman, Jr., Michael D. DiGiacomo, Donald G. Drapkin, F. Samuel Eberts III, I. Steven Edelson, J. David Eller, Sim Farar, Susan Farber, Barbara Hackman Franklin, Morton Funger, Chris G. Gardiner, Eric Garfinkel, Bruce S. Gelb, Jerry P. Genova, Alma Gildenhorn, Joseph B. Gildenhorn, David F. Girard-diCarlo, Michael B. Goldberg, William E. Grayson, Raymond A. Guenter, Verna R. Harrah, Carla A. Hills, Eric Hotung, Frances Humphrey Howard, John L. Howard, Darrell E. Issa, Jerry Jasinowski, Brenda LaGrange Johnson, Dennis D. Jorgensen, Shelly Kamins, Anastasia D. Kelly, Christopher J. Kennan, Michael V. Kostiw, Steven Kotler, William H. Kremer, Denny LeVett, Harold O. Levy, David Link, David S. Mandel, John P. Manning, Edwin S. Marks, Robert McCarthy, C. Peter McColough, Stephen G. McConahey, James D. McDonald, J. Kenneth Menges, Jr., Philip Merrill, Jeremiah L. Murphy, Martha T. Muse, Della Newman, Paul Hae Park, Gerald L. Parsky, Michael J. Polenske, Donald Robert Quartel, Jr., J. Steven Rhodes, John L. Richardson, Margaret Milner Richardson, Edwin Robbins, Philip E. Rollhaus, Jr., Otto Ruesch, B. Francis Saul, III, Timothy R. Scully, J. Michael Shepherd, George P. Shultz, Raja W. Sidawi, Debbie Siebert, Thomas L. Siebert, Ron Silver, William A. Slaughter, Timothy E. Stapleford, Mark C. Treanor, Christine Warnke, Pete Wilson, Deborah Wince-Smith, Norma Kline Tiefel, Herbert S. Winokur, Jr., Joseph Zappala ABOUT THE CENTER The Center is the living memorial of the United States of America to the nation’s twenty-eighth president, Woodrow Wilson. Congress established the Woodrow Wilson Center in 1968 as an international institute for advanced study, “symbolizing and strengthening the fruitful relation- ship between the world of learning and the world of public affairs.” The Center opened in 1970 under its own board of trustees. In all its activities the Woodrow Wilson Center is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization, sup- ported financially by annual appropriations from Congress, and by the contributions of founda- tions, corporations, and individuals. Conclusions or opinions expressed in Center publications and programs are those of the authors and speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Center staff, fellows, trustees, advisory groups, or any individuals or organizations that pro- vide financial support to the Center. | iv | TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction vii Cynthia Arnson PART I. AN OVERVIEW OF POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS Colombia 3 Fernando Cepeda Ulloa Ecuador 7 Adrián Bonilla Peru:The Collapse of “Fujimorismo” 11 Carlos Basombrío Venezuela 33 Michael Coppedge Discussion 43 PART II. DEMOCRATIC GOVERNANCE AND THE ROLE OF THE ARMED FORCES Colombia 57 Francisco Leal Ecuador 62 J. Samuel Fitch Venezuela 68 Miriam Kornblith Discussion 73 | v | PART III. ECONOMIC CRISIS AND DRUG TRAFFICKING:THE INTERSECTION WITH DEMOCRATIC GOVERNANCE Regional Economic Implications 81 Eduardo Gamarra The Narco Connection 87 Bruce Bagley Discussion 93 PART IV.REFLECTIONS ON PERU AND ON A REGION IN CRISIS Catherine Conaghan 103 Luigi Einaudi 109 Discussion 114 The Peruvian Transition and the 123 Role of the International Community Luigi Einaudi Cynthia McClintock 130 Discussion 138 List of Contributors 143 | vi | INTRODUCTION CYNTHIA ARNSON Woodrow Wilson Center n June 2000, the Latin American Program convened a distinguished group of experts on the Andean region to consider the multiple I threats to democratic governance in Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela.The conference was occasioned by the growing concern that throughout the region, the continued consolidation of democratic rule could not be taken for granted. Indeed, the number and intensity of threats had so multiplied that they appeared to put in jeopardy democrat- ic gains made throughout the hemisphere in the 1980s and 1990s. Of particular concern at the time was Peru. Presidential elections held in April 2000, in which Alberto Fujimori was elected to an unprecedent- ed—and, some Peruvians argued, an unconstitutional—third term, were widely condemned by international observers, including a mission of the Organization of American States. In June 2000, the critical question reflected in these pages was what kind of response the Organization of American States would mount in defense of Peruvian democracy, as part of a collective commitment to defend against interruptions of the demo- cratic process in a member state. In subsequent months, Peru experienced a remarkable political trans- formation, the contours of which are also reflected in this document.The rapid implosion of the Fujimori regime, triggered by a bribery scandal involving his chief of intelligence, unveiled unprecedented levels of cor- ruption just as it provided for a new electoral contest in which Fujimori announced he would not be a candidate; he subsequently fled the country. As this publication went to press, Peru had held new presidential elections on April 8, 2001. Emerging as the front-runner, but without a clear major- ity, was Alejandro Toledo, who many thought had won the April 2000 elections against Fujimori, only to be defrauded of victory. In the April 2001 round, perhaps the most surprising development was the second- place finish of former president Alan García, who had presided over a period of economic chaos and widespread political violence in the late | vii | Introduction 1980s. A run-off election between Toledo and García was scheduled for June 2001. Even if the collapse of authoritarianism in Peru left many questions still unanswered about the country’s future direction, elsewhere in the Andean region, developments left less room for optimism. In Colombia, insurgent and paramilitary violence, drug trafficking, and economic recession have challenged the legitimacy of the state and underscored the fragility of democratic institutions. In Venezuela,a popularly-elected military officer has broken the hold of the country’s two traditional par- ties, gutting or abolishing institutions with the power to curb the power of the executive branch, and involving the military in expanded and controversial roles and missions. Ecuador, where three governments have fallen since 1995, represents the most dramatic case of political instabili- ty in the hemisphere; persistent economic crisis has fed the political cri- sis, and vice-versa. U.S. policy consideration of the Andean region has been shaped by Colombia’s wars, and the concern that political violence and drug traf- ficking are spilling beyond its borders. Indeed, Colombia’s neighbors, most notably Ecuador, have expressed repeated fears of such a spillover, and policies are being devised to deal with border security and refugee issues as well as the “balloon effect,” in which drug crop suppression in one country causes a rise of cultivation in others. As this publication reveals, however, countries in the Andean region suffer from common and deep problems of governance: crises of citizen- ship, reflected in widespread apathy and low levels of participation in the political process; the decline of political parties; corruption and a lack of accountability of civilian as well as military elites; weak institutions; the military’s involvement in politics.As several contributors point out, many of these problems are not new,and attempts to identify common regional patterns should not obscure important differences between and among countries. Nonetheless, there is concern that the rapid changes brought on by globalization, the inability to replace clientelistic and patrimonial styles of governing with new forms of representation, and the persistent and growing threat posed by transnational crime constitute an altogether dif- ferent moment. At stake are not only the content and quality of demo- cratic systems, but the continuation of democratic rule itself. Equally uncertain are the ability and commitment of nations of the hemisphere to | viii | Introduction collectively defend democracy short of situations in which there is a for- mal coup d’état. I am grateful to Paul Haslam, doctoral student in political studies at Queen’s University,Canada, for