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A Profile of Tehrik-i- the changing dynamics and tried to was not carried by any other major resurrect the tribal jirga institution, newspaper in the country, indicating it was too late. The Taliban had killed that no general press release was issued approximately 200 of the tribal elders by the supposed new formation. In By Hassan Abbas under charges of being Pakistani and this context, it is possible that it was a American spies. planted story by Pakistan’s intelligence the organizational strength, services to gather support for the group. military strategy and leadership quality These developments explain the genesis Such leaks are not uncommon. Nothing of the Taliban in Pakistan’s tribal of a new formation: Tehrik-i-Taliban has been heard about this organization territories has qualitatively improved Pakistan (TTP). The TTP refers to the since. during the last few years. At the time Taliban “movement” in Pakistan that of the U.S.-led military campaign in coalesced in December 2007 under Less than two months after this in late 2001, allies and the leadership of —a announcement, another group claiming sympathizers of the Taliban in Pakistan wanted militant leader from South to be Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan were not identified as “Taliban” . This analysis discusses the announced its formation. The December themselves. That reality is now a distant origin, nature, capabilities and potential 14, 2007 announcement was viewed memory. Today, Pakistan’s indigenous of this organization. suspiciously in terms of authenticity, Taliban are an effective fighting force since it followed after the October and are engaging the Pakistani military Formation of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan 23 announcement. It soon became on one side and NATO forces on the The name “Tehrik-i-Taliban” had been clear, however, that the December other. used prior to the latest December 14 14 announcement was unique and announcement. An organization with alarming. It showed that the authentic The transition from being Taliban a similar name emerged in FATA’s Taliban were quick to establish their supporters and sympathizers to Orakzai Agency in 1998.2 Some reports ownership over the title “Tehrik-i- becoming a mainstream Taliban force in also mention a similar organization by Taliban Pakistan.” the Federally Administered Tribal Areas the name of Tehrik-i-Tulaba (Movement (FATA) initiated when many small of Students) also operating in Orakzai Structure, Activities and Goals of the TTP militant groups operating independently Agency that even established an active A shura of 40 senior Taliban leaders in the area started networking with one Shari`a court.3 The name and idea, established the TTP as an umbrella another. This sequence of developments therefore, is not original. organization. Militant commander occurred while Pakistani forces were Baitullah Mehsud was appointed as spending the majority of their resources More recently, on October 23, a credible its amir, Maulana finding “foreigners” in the area linked newspaper in Pakistan disclosed that of North Waziristan as senior naib to al-Qa`ida (roughly in the 2002- five militant groups joined hands to amir (deputy) and Maulana Faqir 04 period). Soon, many other local set up an organization named Tehrik-i- Muhammad of Bajaur Agency as the extremist groups, which were banned Taliban in Mohmand Agency with a goal third in command.6 The shura not only in Pakistan, started joining the Taliban “to flush out gangs carrying out criminal has representation from all of FATA’s ranks in FATA—some as followers activities in the name of Taliban.” seven tribal agencies, but also from the while others as partners. During this Its spokesman, who was identified settled North-West Frontier Province process, the Pakistani Taliban never under the Arab name Abu Nauman (NWFP) districts of Swat, Bannu, really merged into the organizational Askari, even mentioned the formation Tank, Lakki Marwat, Dera Ismail structure of the Afghan Taliban under of a 16-member shura (consultative Khan, Kohistan, Buner and Malakand. Mullah Omar; instead, they developed a committee) to coordinate the activities This reach demonstrates the TTP’s distinct identity. From their perspective, of the groups.4 The statement, however, ambitions. Since its establishment, the they intelligently created a space for sounded like an initiative that benefited TTP through its various demarches have themselves in Pakistan by engaging from government involvement since announced the following objectives and in military attacks while at other Islamabad has been attempting to create principles: times cutting deals with the Pakistani rifts between the different Taliban and government to establish their autonomy militant factions. The rise of Maulvi 1. Enforce Shari`a, unite against NATO in the area.1 By default, they were Nazir in 2007, for instance, was forces in Afghanistan and perform accepted as a legitimate voice in at least such an operation as he had received “defensive jihad against the Pakistan two FATA agencies—South Waziristan government support in challenging army.”7 and North Waziristan. Uzbek militants operating in South Waziristan.5 Furthermore, the news 2. React strongly if military operations During this process, the Pakistani are not stopped in and Taliban effectively established 2 Hassan Abbas, “The Black-Turbaned Brigade: The Rise North Waziristan Agency. themselves as an alternative leadership of TNSM in Pakistan,” Terrorism Monitor 4:23 (2006). to the traditional tribal elders. By the 3 The Herald [Karachi], February 1999. Monitor 5:9 (2007). time the Pakistani government realized 4 “Militants Form New Group,” Dawn, October 23, 6 Mushtaq Yusufzai, “Militants Seek End to Military 2007. Operations,” The News, December 16, 2007. 1 They began cutting deals with the government in 5 For details, see Hassan Abbas, “South Waziristan’s 7 “Second Editorial: Tribal Areas Under Centralized 2004. : The New Face of the Taliban,” Terrorism Control,” Daily Times, December 16, 2007. January 2008 . Vol 1 . Issue 2

3. Demand the abolishment of all Although the TTP is young as an Bhutto. The TTP’s involvement in the military checkpoints in the FATA area. organization, there is no dearth of killings of nine tribesmen associated operational capabilities at its disposal. with pro-government leader Maulvi 4. Demand the release of Lal Masjid Baitullah Mehsud already is an Nazir on January 7 in South Waziristan, (Red Mosque) Imam Abdul Aziz. established leader—with the command however, is near certain.15 The Pakistani of some 5,000 fighters—and has been government has also circulated a list to 5. Refuse future peace deals with the involved in militant activities for the law enforcement agencies of about a government of Pakistan. last few years in FATA and the adjacent dozen important Shi`a political leaders areas. Many other militant groups seem who, according to its intelligence Initially, the TTP gave a 10 day deadline anxious to join in. On December 23, services, are on Baitullah Mehsud’s hit for the government to stop military 2007, for instance, five soldiers and six list.16 action in FATA and Swat District, civilians were killed in the Mingora area but then extended the deadline in lieu of the Swat Valley when a suicide bomber Brief Profiles of TTP’s Senior Leaders of the country’s mourning of former targeted an army convoy. Tehreek-e- Baitullah Mehsud—The 34-year-old Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s death Nafaz-e-Shariat- e-Mohammadi (TNSM) warrior belongs to South Waziristan on December 27, 2007.8 On January 4, quickly claimed responsibility for the Agency and hails from the Mehsud 2008, however, TTP spokesman Ghazi tribe. He did not attend schooling or Ahmed called journalists to inform “The TTP, however, religious madrasa. He shuns media them that a one week extension of the and has refused to be photographed, ultimatum would begin on January 5 is bound to refocus on indicating that he stands by the fanatic and threatened to attack the city of Afghanistan if and when Talibanized version of Islam. His Peshawar if their demands were not worldview is evident from his statement met.9 The TTP was also quick to deny its position strengthens in that “only jihad can bring peace to the their involvement in killing Bhutto after FATA and the NWFP.” world.”17 He came to prominence in the government of Pakistan claimed February 2005 when he signed a deal that her assassination was conducted with the Pakistani government that by associates of Baitullah Mehsud and it termed as his surrender, although even produced a transcript of Mehsud’s attack on behalf of the TTP.14 TNSM, he interpreted it as a peace deal in the telephone conversation proving his another banned terrorist outfit, is led by interests of the tribal regions as well as involvement.10 Maulana Fazlullah and had re-emerged Pakistan.18 As part of the deal, he had in 2006. The group made headlines for pledged not to provide any assistance to Mehsud’s spokesman responded by taking control of large areas in the Swat al-Qa`ida and other militants and not to maintaining that the transcript was Valley of the NWFP. The army, after a launch operations against government “a drama,” and that Bhutto’s death large operation in late 2007, recaptured forces. The deal was short lived, and was a “tragedy” that had left Mehsud the district, but TNSM militants since 2006 he has virtually established “shocked.”11 A purported spokesman (numbering in the hundreds) are still an independent zone in parts of South for Mehsud, , later told operating in parts of the district. The Waziristan Agency, which is widely Reuters: “Tribal people have their own TTP’s demand for halting government believed to be a sanctuary for al-Qa`ida customs. We don’t strike women.”12 military action in Swat appealed to and the Taliban. In private discussions, This shows that the organization has TNSM members and will predictably Pakistani officials also blame the United a media cell, a public relations policy lead to more collaboration between States for direct military operations in and is quite serious about its plans. The the two groups in terms of manpower, FATA, leading to the collapse of some Pakistani government has been slow to logistics and intelligence. TNSM leader deals. Mehsud commands a force of respond to these developments as the Fazlullah is known for the mobile FM around 5,000 militants and has moved TTP has not yet been officially banned, radio stations that he managed until aggressively against Pakistan’s army and the government maintains that “a recently, on which he would broadcast in recent months, especially when he decision to this effect will come only his radical ideology. A TTP radio captured around 250 army soldiers after a thorough examination of all the broadcast in the future would be one in August 2007.19 The soldiers were aspects concerned.”13 potential sign of more cooperation returned only when the government between the two terrorist groups. released 25 militants associated with 8 Alamgir Bhettani, “Taliban Give Two Days for Swat Pullout,” Dawn, January 3, 2008. The TTP’s denial about its involvement 9 “Tehrik-i-Taliban Threatens Attacks in Settled Areas,” in Bhutto’s murder has little face 15 “Nine Aides of Maulvi Nazir Killed,” Daily Times, The News, January 5, 2008; “Taliban Set 7-day Deadline,” value, but it is too early to reach any January 8, 2008. The Nation [Lahore], January 5, 2008. conclusion since the 16 Personal interview, Pakistani government official, 10 “Transcript of Alleged al-Qaida Intercept,” ABC government may be trying to shift the January 5, 2008. News, December 28, 2007. blame and divert attention from its own 17 Syed Shoaib Hasan, “Profile: Baitullah Mehsud,” BBC, 11 “Mehsud Denies Killing Bhutto: Al-Qaida,” NDTV, failure to provide adequate security for December 28, 2007. December 29, 2007. 18 Shamim Shahid, “Baitullah, Supporters, Lay Down 12 Laura King, “Taliban Blamed for Attack on Bhutto,” December 21, 2007. Arms,” The Nation, February 8, 2005. Los Angeles Times, December 29, 2007. 14 Claude Salhani, “A Grim Year 2007 for Pakistan,” 19 Amir Mir, “The Most Wanted Pakistani Talib,” Paki- 13 Azaz Syed, “Taliban Outfit Faces Ban,” Daily Times, Middle East Times, December 28, 2007. stan Post, December 10, 2007. January 2008 . Vol 1 . Issue 2

Mehsud.20 Conclusion Of the 56 suicide bombings in Pakistan Maulana Hafiz Gul Bahadur—Belonging in 2007, 36 were against military related to North Waziristan Agency, he has targets, including two against the ISI; been a member of the local Taliban shura two against the army headquarters in since 2005. He was also a member of the Rawalpindi; one aimed at the air force in three-man signatory team, representing Sargodha; and one directed at the facility North Waziristan tribes, that signed of the Special Services Group (SSG) the well-known peace deal between in Tarbela. For many of these attacks, the Pakistani government and North the government blamed Baitullah Waziristan in September 2006.21 The Mehsud and his associates. This reveals deal collapsed in July 2007. Currently, the TTP’s potential now that it has some negotiations are being held again additional resources and geographic between the government and the agency, reach. This new organization in fact and Bahadur is involved in these is expected to increase the capacity discussions. Bahadur in fact recently of militant forces in the area and chaired the meeting of militants that exacerbate the political instability that extended an ongoing cease-fire until has gripped Pakistan in recent months. January 20, 2008.22 It is noteworthy This internal engagement also perhaps that on one hand he is part of the TTP largely accounts for the 40 percent leadership—which is openly challenging decline in insurgent attacks on NATO the government—while on the other hand forces in the Pakistan-Afghanistan is negotiating with the government on border areas.24 The TTP, however, is behalf of his home agency. It is possible bound to refocus on Afghanistan if and that the government is trying to create when its position strengthens in FATA a wedge between the top leaders of the and the NWFP. TTP—a smart move if this is indeed the motivation. There are signs that the government is now targeting the TTP leadership, but Maulana Faqir Muhammad—The it lacks the human intelligence required relatively well-profiled 39-year-old on the ground. Musharraf’s waning Faqir Muhammad belongs to Mohmand support within the armed forces also tribe and is known as a facilitator for complicates the country’s “war on al-Qa`ida.23 He is a resident of Bajaur terrorism” strategy. There are many Agency, but was educated in the indications that some former intelligence Salafist tradition in various madrasas agents and serving junior level officials of the NWFP. This brought him closer of the army apparently are in league to the Arabs operating in the area, with the militants. Borrowing the words which also benefited him financially. of leading Pakistani scholar Pervez This perhaps allows him to afford the Hoodbhoy, “a part of the establishment personal security team that he is known is clearly at war with another part.” In to have. He came into prominence in this troubling scenario, dismantling 2005 when government forces raided the TTP and bringing its leadership his house in search of some “high-value” to justice is critical for Pakistan’s al-Qa`ida operatives. He was a target internal security as well as for tackling of a U.S. missile attack in 2006, but the Taliban insurgency in southern he escaped unhurt. He also remained Afghanistan. close to TNSM’s founder Maulana , who is currently in jail. Hassan Abbas is a fellow at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a doctoral candidate at The Fletcher School, Tufts University. Previously, he served in the administrations of Benazir 20 Sami Yousafzai and Ron Moreau, “Al Qaeda’s New- Bhutto and Pervez Musharraf in Pakistan. est Triggerman,” Newsweek, January 14, 2007. He is also the author of Pakistan’s Drift 21 Rahimullah Yusufzai, “Peace Accord with Militants,” into Extremism: Allah, the Army and The News, September 14, 2006. America’s War on Terror. 22 “Five Killed in S Waziristan Clashes,” The News, Janu- ary 9, 2008. 23 Sohail Abdul Nasir, “Al-Zawahiri’s Pakistani Ally: Profile of Maulana ,” Terrorism Moni- 24 Jason Straziuso, “US: Afghan Border Attacks Drop tor 4:3 (2006). 40 pct.,” Guardian, December 16, 2007.