WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2012
RENEWABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK 211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 211 © OECD/IEA, 2012 Chapter 7 • • • • • • by over 4.1 gas import bills, cuts local air pollution and, in most cases, reduces stress on water on resources. stress reduces cases, most in and, pollution air local cuts bills, import gas o pwr eeain n boul fr rnpr icess bu sxfl, driven by imports to theEuropean Union,JapanandIndia. about six-fold, increases for transport biofuels and generation power for biomass solid policy goals of trade international As regions, some in capacity production manner. the in a sustainable exceed bemanaged to have will implications use land- the although production, food with competing without demand projected meet to sufficient than more are resources bioenergy global that indicates assessment Our in 2035Brazil, 19%intheUnited States and16%intheEuropean Union. 1 by mandates.blending Ethanolremains the dominantrising from supply with biofuel, use moreBiofuels theNewthan triples in PoliciesScenario, from 1.3 in Renewables make upanincreasing share energy ofprimary use inallscenarios The deployment ofrenewablesthe New in PoliciesreducesScenario CO and end-users. be reduced ascosts fall toavoid them becomingexcessive an burden ongovernments While vital to growth oftheindustry, 2020). subsidies for new renewables capacity need to by locked-in be to set is 70% about (and capacity existing to commitments amounts to $3.5 generation power for renewables to support Cumulative Scenario. Policies New the and needto riseto almost $240 Renewable energy subsidies jumpedto $88 while innon-OECD countries most investment isinhydro andwind. OECDin countries accounts for 48%ofthetotal, focusingPV,solar and wind on mainly ($1.5 power sector accounts forthe total 94%of ($2.1 wind – including Investmentrenewables in $6.4 of of though solarPV generation increases 26-fold from 2010-2035). generation, windalmost one-quarter andsolarphotovoltaics (PV) 7.5%(even 31% oftotal generation. In2035,hydropower providesrenewables-based halfof electricity generation from renewables nearlytriplesfrom 2010to 2035, reaching regions, andrisingfossil fuelprices inthelonger term. Inthe New Policies Scenario,
mboe/d in 2010mboe/d t oil equivalentoil perday2010 in to (mboe/d) 4.5 WEO-2012, thanks to government support, falling costs, CO
trillion) and solar and trillion)
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Renewable energy outlook energy Renewable
Gt 2035, in
o 3.4 trillion, ofwhichov PV($1.3
contributes to thediversity oftheenergy mix, lowersand oil mboe/d in2035.mee Biofuels
trillion) – with the r – with trillion)
Highlights billion in2035to achiev trillion is r is trillion Renewable energyoutlook er one-quarter isalready locked-in by
billion in2011, 24%higher thanin2010, equired over 2012-2035. the periodThe
mboe/d in 203 in mboe/d emainder in biofuels. Investmentbiofuels. emainder in t 37% of road transport demand e thetrends projected in A shiningfuture? 5, driven primarily 2 pricinginsome
trillion), hytrillion), million barrelsmillion Chapter 7 2 emissions dro 18/10/2012 15:49:50 211
211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 212 © OECD/IEA, 2012 emissions reductions of carbon dioxide (CO dioxide carbon targeting driver, of policy reductions key a emissions been have concerns Environmental sector. power the in Government policies have been essential to recent growth in renewable energy, especially States, was largely offset by strong growth inthe rest ofthe world, notably Asia. weaker performance insomeregions, for example, inpartsofEurope andthe United The renewables sector hasnotbeen immuneto therecent globaleconomic crisis, but grew by 27%andsolarphotovoltaics (PV) by 42%per year onaverage during thisperiod. wind from generation Electricity electricity,stable.renewables-based remained of source the largest Hydropower, needs. fuel transportation of share growing a met feedstocks) fell from 50%in2000to 45%in2010, while biofuels(transport fuels produced energy from biomass renewable of total out biomass traditional of share The sources. renewable different the of contributions changing with but 2000, since steady remained has share This demand. energy primary global of 13% for accounting 2010, in (Mtoe) equivalent oil 212 Measures and Policies IEA’s the in and (2012) IEA in found Database: be can countries other about Information 2. and cooking. 1. Traditional biomass comprises wood, charcoal, crop residues and animal dung mainly used mainly for heating biomass, traditional energy,renewableincluding of use The Recent developments less than10%in2010(EC, 2011;EU, 2011). renewable energy could meet that 55-75% of indicated final energyreport consumptionCommission by 2050,European compared withrecent A 2020. beyond policy energy EU to central be to continue toexpected is Renewableenergyreports. progress regularprovide To ensure that their targets are met, each country is required to prepare an action plan and in gross final energy consumption of each member state by 2020, equating to 20% in total. binding targets for the share ofrenewable energy (covering electricity, heat andbiofuels) legally set which Directive, Energy Renewable the released Union European the 2009, In renewables capacity and generation to compensate for lower nuclear power output. power nuclear lower Recent developments inJapanandothermajorcountries are for summarised below. compensate to generation and capacity renewables additional promote to increased sharply been the last has support where in Japan, in occurred year policy in renewables shift significant most The progress. monitor and target this for baseline the define to Nations United the with working is IEA improvements);the efficiency energy of rate the double to and energy modern to access universal ensure to for aglobaltarget ofdoublingtheshare ofrenewable energy by 2030(alongwithtargets calls which initiative, All for Energy Sustainable its launched recently Nations United The deploy renewable energy technologies inthe power sector by 2017(IEA, 2012). to expected are countries 70 than more policies, by Driven sources. energy conventional than expensive more still are renewables as required been have subsidies cases, most In and diversify security energy enhance energy supply. economies, Thefocus main hasbeen onthe electricity sector, followed by biofuels. stimulate to supported been also www.iea.org/policiesandmeasures/renewableenergy/. World EnergyOutlook 2012 2 ) andlocal pollutants. Renewables have 1 was 1
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Global Energy Trends
684 milliontonnes of 2
18/10/2012 15:49:50
211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 213 © OECD/IEA, 2012 fired generation. fired gas- and power nuclear renewables, from produced that as defined electricity, targets clean nation-wide for first the set would Congress, US the by considered being currently for geothermal andmarine power. Nine provinces have ethanol-blending mandates of10%, respectively 2020. GW by 50 and GW firstTargetsreach200 to the time set have for been Year Plan, covering the period 2011-2015, calls for 70 for calls 2011-2015, period the covering YearPlan, An update to the 12 capacity, 120 Chapter 7 exist in29states andtheDistrict ofColumbia. electricity salesfrom renewables oraminimumamount ofrenewables capacity –now of share a specified requiring regulations – standards portfolio Renewablerenewables. of deploymentcontinued the state-levelfederalpush States,and both Unitedpolicies the In 3. As of July 2012. Details about incentives at state levels are available at: mandates 36 the government set the target of adding 45 2010, adding In of target heat. the set and government electricity the on mainly focuses policy energy renewable Australia, In the world. Other subsidy mechanisms include investment grants, loans and tax reductions. in generous most the among are which incentives creating renewables, other and power solar and wind for system 30% oftotal tariffs feed-in new a launched about Japan 2012, July In generation. 2010, reaching to compared totriple renewables from generation increasing the deployment ofrenewable energy. By 2030, thestrategy calls for power the goal ofreducing therole ofnuclearpower. Thiswould becompensated inpartby the Innovative Strategy for Energy and the Environment in September 2012, which includes 2009 andarevised BasicEnergy Planin2010.Following Fukushima Daiichi,Japanreleased Japan’srenewable energy was policy reviewed extendedand through legislation in passed import tariffs were removed inlate 2011, increasing competition withdomestic biofuels. credits are set to expire in 2016.The future ofthesetax credits remains uncertain. Ethanol biofuels are set to expire at the endof2012, thoughextensions are underdebate. Solartax power, wind advanced credits renewables.for Production and tax of biodiesel growth the also provides tax incentives (credits, rebates and exemptions), grants and loans to support States United The use. biofuels greater for today, opportunity sold an creating commonly for retailers to sellfuelblends containing 15%ethanol (E15), compared with10%(E10) 2012 June in approval (EPA) gave Agency Protection Environmental US The 2022. by fuel energy (nuclearandrenewables) inthe power sector to 15%by 2020.The 12 subsequent amendments. In2009,Chinaset atarget to increase the share ofnon-fossil and 2005 in Law,Energypassed Renewable the in down laid is policy China’srenewables blending mandates exist inNew SouthWales andQueensland. an eligible source). In addition, a number of states offer feed-in tariffs for solar PV. Biofuels generatedhas been from electricity that of proof certificates certificates (tradable energy electricity andheat by 2020.Thetarget isexpected to bemet through theissue ofrenewable
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Renewable energy outlook energy Renewable
billion gallons GW of
The Renewable FuelStandard, adopted in2005andextended in2007, th additional hydropower and 5 Five-Year Plan, released inJuly2012,calls for wind andsolarcapacity (136
billion litre s) of biofuels to be blended into transportation
tera 3 The Clean Energy Standard Act of 2012, of Act Standard Energy Clean The
GW of watt-hours (TWh) of renewables-based of (TWh) watt-hours
gigaw additional solar capacity by 2015. www.dsireusa.org. atts (GW) of additional wind additional of (GW) atts th Five- 18/10/2012 15:49:51 213 11 16 12 10 14 13 17 15 18 2 5 8 1 3 6 4 7 9 211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 214 © OECD/IEA, 2012 214 2 for modernrenewables increases from 933 In the New Policies Scenario, ourcentral energy scenariointhisOutlook, primary demand both countries shift towards modernfuels. total energy primary demand in that region in 2035.Itsuse declinesin India and China, as Chapter (see cooking for essentially biomass, traditional on heavily rely to continue Africa, sub-Saharan in particularly countries, OECD non- in people many fuels, modern to access greater Despite period. projection the over about 650 751 at Traditional biomass renewables includinghydro, except traditional biomass). (T Scenario, 2 all sce The use ofrenewable energy increases considerably from the 2010level (1 Outlook for renewable energy by scenario blending mandate since2010. sugarcane harvest andrecord sugar prices inthat year. Brazil hashada5%biodiesel ethanol ingasoline were revised down in2011, from 25%to 20%, because ofareduced major focus of Brazilian renewable energy policy. Mandatory minimumblendinglevels for hydropower projects continues through different programmes. Biofuels isthe other by hydropower, butalsowithwindpower andbiomass.Thedevelopment oflarge almost 80%oftotal installed capacity in2020.Thistarget isexpected to bemet mainly The ten-year planfor energy expansion through 2020aimsfor renewables to account Brazil relies oncapacity tenders to increase renewables-based electricity generation. competition forsupply from thechemicals anddistillery industry. Current blendingtargets of5% are not beingmet dueto highethanol pricesarising from 2017. by biodiesel and ethanol for 20% reaching and ethanol for 5% at starting 2009, in that itwillplay anincreasing role. Non-binding biofuel-blendingtargets were introduced indicate hydro small for Provisions issues. five-yearre-settlement to country’spart in due the uncertain is plan, in for provided hydropower, large of expansion successful The water heaters). The main subsidy mechanisms for solar and wind power are feed-in tariffs. grid solar power, with special attention on rural electrification, solar lighting and heat (solar initiative targeting 20 policy major a is 2010, in launched Mission, Solar National Nehru Jawaharlal the India, In Hainan province (USDA, 2011). 5% biodiesel, hasbeen inplacesince2011,onavoluntary but basis.Itisappliedonlyin mandating standard, blend fuel diesel nation-wide A 2012. in reduced substantially were ethanol grain-based for incentives though incentives, production-tax through supported
able 392
narios over the Outlook te in Mtoe .) Ti gr This 7.1).
Mtoe the450 in
702
Mtoe inthe Curr 2035, with significant increases across all regions and sectors. Demand and sectors. all regions across increases significant with 2035, owth is entirely due to additional supply of modern renewables (all modern renewables of supply to additional due entirely is owth
GW of
Scenario andjust under700
Mtoe in Mtoe grid-connected solar power by 2022. The plan also covers off- period. By 2035, itreaches 3 ent Policies Scenario, and3 2010 falls to 687 to falls 2010 World EnergyOutlook 2012
Mtoe in2010t 18). Tr 18). aditional biomass represents 42% of 42% represents biomass aditional
Mtoe intheCurren Mtoe in Mtoe
079 925 o 1 the New Policies Scenario, Policies New the
Mtoe inthe N Mtoe inthe450
| 459
Global Energy Trends
Mtoe in2020and t Policies Scenario
684 Mtoe) in ew Policies
Scenario 18/10/2012 15:49:51 211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 215 © OECD/IEA, 2012 Note: Includestraditional biomass. * Compoundaverage annualgrowth rate. Chapter 7 Table modern renewables more thantriples between 2010and2035. nation-wide mandating policies large increases demand India, In biofuels. of use the in for 14% ofthetotal in2035,boosted by policiesto supportelectricity at thestate both levelregions andby 2035, by and andChina, account for 16% of the world’s modern renewable energy Union use. The United States makes up European the in substantially increases by industry (where biomass is used to produce steam, in co-generation and in steel and co-generation in steam, produce production) to but also by households (where biomass, used solar and geothermal energy are used is biomass (where industry by almost doubles, from 337 biofuels make inroads towards 2035.Theuse ofmodernrenewables to produce heat (expressed inenergy-equivalent volumes ofgasoline anddiesel), upfrom 1.3 triples over the sameperiodto reach 4.5 (Table 2035 and 2010 between times 2.7 grows generation sources from electricity energy renewable global Scenario,PoliciesNew the In in European Union World Latin America Middle East Africa Asia E. Europe/Eurasia Non-OECD Asia Oceania Europe Americas OECD Brazil India China Russia Japan United States 2010. Almost all biofuels are used in road transport, but the consumption of aviation of consumption the but transport, road in used are biofuels all Almost 2010.
7.1
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⊳
Renewable energy outlook energy Renewable
scenario Total primarydemandforrenewableenergybyregionand 2 8 3079 1684 1 124 902010 1990 1 7 2 .%3522 5 2.8% 355 2.2% 305 2.4% 322 177 112 9 3 8 .%4814 0 1.6% 500 1.4% 478 1.4% 483 339 196 4 8 8 .%2712 3 2.5% 335 1.2% 247 1.8% 287 182 140 1 8 8 .%4114 2 3.2% 629 1.4% 401 2.1% 483 284 211 9 676 497 847 0 3 3 .%2833 2 5.7% 522 3.3% 298 3.9% 338 131 100 5 9 6 .%4229 8 5.1% 686 2.9% 402 3.4% 461 199 153 7 443 277
4143430 3 .%413.9% 481 2.5% 338 3.0% 384 184 74 6172024 0 .%202.8% 230 2.2% 200 2.4% 210 117 66 62 336 126 0 6.3% 101 2.6% 41 3.6% 53 22 26 04 0 .%8 .%155.2% 165 2.3% 84 3.2% 103 47 40 51 352 932 96.7% 89 3.2% 39 5.2% 63 18 15 63 2 .%8 .%136.5% 173 3.6% 86 5.0% 121 36 26 8284329 7 .%533.8% 533 2.4% 373 2.9% 423 208 98 2 2 4 2073 1 241 (Mtoe)
Mtoe in2010to 604
1 133 1 005 0521-5 0521-5 052010-35* 2035 2010-35* 2035 2010-35* 2035 New Policies 31.%1 .%6 14.8% 68 9.1% 19 11.5% 33
million barrels ofoilequiv 2.4% 2.1% .%812.7% 861 3.3% .%951.4% 955 2.1%
7.2). Consumption 7.2).
Mtoe in2035.Thishea 2 702 1 840 Current Policies 1.9% 1.6% alent perday (mboe/d) of biofuels more than more biofuels of 3 925 1 412 2 500 1 393 t isused mainly 450 Scenario
mboe/d 3.4% 2.8% 4.7% 3.0% 18/10/2012 15:49:51 215 11 16 12 10 14 13 17 15 18 2 5 8 1 3 6 4 7 9 211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 216 © OECD/IEA, 2012 includes international bunkers. * Excludes traditional biomass. ** Expressed in energy-equivalent volumes of gasoline and diesel. *** Other 216 grows 5.2%per year, compared with3.9%per year between 2000 and2010. electricity.sourceof generation primary 2020, the and as fromBetween 2010 renewables coal approach they 2035 by and coal) of that half (roughly 2015 by generation electricity of source second-largest world’s the become collectively renewables Scenario, Policies the throughout transport road or heat in production than higher is generation electricity in renewables of share the scenarios, all In Table transport fueldemand. 8.2 to grows use biofuel while 2035, in electricity the 450 primarily for space and water heating). These overall trends are much more pronounced in Share oftotal transport Other*** Aviation Road transport Biofuels** Share oftotal production Wind ulig*adarclue 3 14 8 170 280 184 131 Buildings* andagriculture Solar PV Geothermal Bioenergy Hydro Industry Concentrating solarpower Electricity generation (TWh) Share oftotal biomass Heat demand(Mtoe) Share oftotal generation Marine Traditional biomass (Mtoe)
7.2
Scenario: renew (mboe/d)
⊳
World renewableenergyusebytypeandscenario ables-based electricity generation supplies almost half the world’s 3 1 5677 4513 3 431 0 9 13266896774315293 7443 9627 6648 11342 6999 4 206 2010 342 331 207 37 4 64 2 57 6 715 461 537 429 604 447 337 71 6 67 6 67 4 653 748 697 764 687 761 751 0 2 4 1 2 3 19% 13% 12% 11% 14% 12% 10% 9 0 7 1 0 8 29% 48% 40% 51% 37% 50% 59% 0 5 1 3 4 8 48% 28% 24% 23% 31% 25% 20%
13 . 45 . 37 . 8.2 2.8 3.7 2.1 4.5 2.4 1.3 13 . 44 . 36 . 6.8 2.8 3.6 2.1 4.4 2.4 1.3 6 11 1 18 1 150 217 118 315 332 131 32 68 %4 %4 %5 14% 5% 5% 4% 6% 4% 2% 2 1 - - - - World EnergyOutlook 2012 7 8 4 5 4 4281 1442 2151 1148 2681 1 272 e oiisCurr New Policies 696 23324 263 0023 0023 002035 2020 2035 2020 2035 2020 50 5 8 68122750 1212 668 1 487 eid (Figure period Outlook 86282 846 278 0.1 0.0 57
mboe/d – equiv – mboe/d 9 5350 4 390 28308 258 39 n oiis450Scenario ent Policies 3 - -
| 229 524 11 1815 61 141 0.1
0.0 32 Global Energy Trends alent to 14% of total of 14% to alent
.) I te Ne the In 7.1). 4 658 18370 198 361371 376 23345 263 6 - - 6 263 2 033 449 0.6 0.8 82 23/10/2012 11:39:05 w 211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 217 © OECD/IEA, 2012 Chapter 7 geothermal, concentrating solarpower andmarine energy. includes Other additions. capacity gross equals capacity retired of replacement plus additions Net Notes: production electricity for sources energy 1 from renewable increases of capacity installed global The Note: CPS=Current Policies Scenario; NPS=New Policies Scenario; 450=Scenario. 10 20 30 40 50% Figure Figure energy capacity additions exceed 170 is wind, 18%issolarPV, and15%ishydro. By the end oftheOutlook for retiring assets amount to 700 to amount assets retiring for sector. power the Replacement in additions capacity gross total of half than more – 2035 2012 to from built is installations, older of replacement including capacity, renewables 0%
GW % % % % 10 12 14 16 18 20 40 60 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 Electricity generao
CPSN 7.1 7.2
| 09 00 2011 2010 2009
Renewable energy outlook energy Renewable ⊳ ⊳
PS
type intheNewPoliciesScenario World averageannualrenewables-basedcapacityadditionsby Share ofrenewablesbycategoryandscenario 465 45
0C GW in GW nH
2011 to 3 to 2011 S NP PS eat produco
2015 2012 GW of GW
GW per y S -
770 2020 2016 45 capacity over the over capacity nR
0 - GW in GW 2025 2021 ear (Figure - 2035. A total of just over 3 over just of total A 2035. 2030 2026 CP oad transport SN - 2035 2031-
7.2). PS Outlook period, ofwhich55% 45 0 period, renewable Wind Hydro Solar PV Bioenerg Other capacity rering renewable Replacements for 2010 in 2035 market share Addiona y
000
GW of GW l 18/10/2012 15:49:51 217
11 16 12 10 14 13 17 15 18 2 5 8 1 3 6 4 7 9 211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 218 © OECD/IEA, 2012 218 294 from grows production heat traditional for use, excluding andbiomass, power heat bioenergy Global countries. in combined in OECD of bioenergy particularly production, use the increase generation electricity in for renewables obligations and Incentives period. projection the throughout bioenergy by dominated be to continues renewables modern from heat of production Globally,the Table PV andwindpower see strong growth. position, though its share of total generation falls from 20% in 2010 to dominant 17% in a 2035, maintains as hydropower solar countries, these In 30%. to generation renewables of over a third of incremental electricity justgeneration is countries, from renewables, non-OECD taking the total share In generation. total of one-third provide renewables 2035, by OECD: the in mix electricity the in change significant a to leads This declines. fuels fossil from generation as renewables, other from remainder the with generation, incremental between 2010and2035.Inthe OECD, generation windpower accounts for abouthalfofthetotal incremental global of 47% for account Renewables PV. solar from 7.5% and based electricity comes from hydropower, almost aquarter from wind, 13%from bioenergy level intheOECD by theendofOutlook period. In 2035, half of the world’s renewables- in non-OECD countries, though the share of renewables in total generation reaches a higher thethan in OECD (Table countries non-OECD in higher was generation electricity renewables-based total 2010, In OECD Americas Europe Asia Oceania Non-OECD E. Asia Middle East Africa Latin America World uoenUin 1 67 2 1 8 5 1626 1450 1 285 1113 922 687 310 European Union ntdSae 39 5 60 5 991041238 1074 909 750 600 454 379 United States Japan Russia China India Brazil
Europe/Eur
7.3
⊳ sa 6 39 1 37 9 46516 446 391 347 315 309 266 asia
Policies Scenario(TWh) Renewables-based electricitygenerationbyregionintheNew 3 1960 1 339 1 0 3 9 4 9786 8348 6 999 5531 4206 2 316 9021 0522 0523 0521 2035 2010 2035 2030 2025 2020 2015 2010 1990 78 9 0 9 0 2 1953 1724 1504 1297 1105 896 718 42 8 3 5 4 3 1937 1734 1545 1351 1138 887 472 19 7 20 1 36 7 546 477 396 315 250 177 149 12 1 11 9 27 9 325 292 247 199 161 116 102 972253084074945816906 5851 4904 4037 3038 2245 977 16 7 16 9 24 6 305 260 224 195 176 170 166 211001682453093634320 3663 3039 2445 1688 1090 281 17 7 2 8 1 0 2689 2400 2112 1789 1223 779 127 31 1 861001171281367 1248 1127 1000 866 718 361 21 3 54 8 66 0 754 701 646 585 514 437 211 7 16 1 38 6 64826 644 466 318 213 136 72 1 1 2 4 7 19208 119 72 46 28 18 12 5 10 4 18 7 34495 374 275 198 141 110 57
7.3). Inthe Ne Renew 9 6 4 3 4436 3936 3444 2963 2 493 able electricitygeneration World EnergyOutlook 2012 w Policies Scenario, total outputgrows most rapidly
Mtoe in Mtoe 2010 to 480 to 2010 11 342
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Global Energy Trends
Mtoe in Mtoe Share oftotal 8 33% 18% 1 30% 21% 7 29% 17% 0 23% 10% 4 44% 24% 0 27% 10% 8 22% 18% 6 21% 16% 7 27% 17% 0 31% 20% 8 27% 18% 4 25% 14% 7 36% 17% 7 73% 67% 5 79% 85% 1 43% 21% generation %24% 9% %12% 2% 2035. Solar 2035. 18/10/2012 15:49:51 211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 219 © OECD/IEA, 2012 Figure fuels increases around theworld (seeChapter almost reaching 210 from2010-2035, 250% Bioenergy by of bioenergy. increases biofuels consumption produce to additional consumption the of two-thirds about for account (Figure 2035 in consumption bioenergy of sharelarger a 196 of 3.3%peryear. The industrial sector isthelargest consumer ofbioenergy in2010at doubles from 526 Chapter 7 for furtherdescriptions. wastesolid toMunicipal heat.produce and industrial electricity wasteand Referareincluded. also toAnnex C feedstocks andbiogas. Thisincludesbiofuelsfor transport andproducts (e.g. wood chips, pellets, black liquor) 4. The term bioenergy refers to the energy content in solid, liquid and gaseous products derived from biomass has thesecond-highest demand, reaching about210 industrial and residential heat accounting for nearly half of this demand. The United States in theEuropean Union, rising from 130 Excluding demand for traditional biomass, primary energy demand for bioenergy is largest energyGlobal primary demandfor bioenergy, Demand Focus onbioenergy Outlook by typeintheNew Policies Scenario 3 United States. Geothermal heat, also usedmainlyinbuildings,grows at 7.8%peryear from 2035. Thelargest share ofthegrowth isinChina, followed by theEuropean Unionandthe heat, mainlyused inbuildings,grows at 5.5%peryear from 19
Mtoe in2010t 59%
Mtoe b Mtoe Mtoe,
7.3
| 1 277Mtoe increasing to over 300 over to increasing y 2035. The use of traditional biomass declines over time as access to modern to access as time over declines traditional biomass of use The 2035. y
Renewable energy outlook energy Renewable ⊳ 2010
o 19 the NewPoliciesScenario,2010and2035 World bioenergyusebysectorandoftraditionalbiomassin
Mtoe in 2010t 15%
Mtoe in2035. 6%
7% 9% 5%
o nearly 1
Mtoe in Mtoe
Mtoe in2010t Other Buildings Transport Power Industry biomass Tradional 2035. However, the power sector accounts for accounts sector However,power 2035. the
200 Mtoe by 2035,
18). 4 excluding traditional biomass, more than more biomass, traditional excluding
Mtoe b o about230
37% 7.3). Tog7.3). 5%
Mtoe t growing at an average rate y 2035, driven mainlyby 1 881Mtoe ether,sectorstwo these 8% 2035 o 73
Mtoe by 2035,
11% Mtoe ov 16% 22% er 2010- with 18/10/2012 15:49:52 219
11 16 12 10 14 13 17 15 18 2 5 8 1 3 6 4 7 9 211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 220 © OECD/IEA, 2012 transport grows from 5% to 19% over the same periods. These increases are driven by both forPLDVsthan morelimited Chapter(see much are oil to replace options where transport, freight heavy in particularly potential, h Uie Sae rmis h lret akt o boul, ih ead iig from rising demand with biofuels, for 0.6 market largest the remains States United The at present andthe development ofadvanced biodieselismaking onlyslow progress. Biodiesel supply increases from 0.3 increase 220 1.0 from rises consumption as the throughout supply ofbiofuels three-quarters about for accounting the over aviation in inroads In the New Policies Scenario, biofuels increasingly displace oil in transport and start making and subsidies, contribute to thegrowth the in demandfor bioenergy for power andheat. wastecoaland with to energy. Policy interventions, including renewable energy standards fuel-based with fossil provenpower competitive plants during the projection period, particularly some combined heat and become power, co-firing price, technologies carbon generation a power establish bioenergy that regions In policy. government by largely driven is production heat and generation power for bioenergy for demand of growth The energy demandgrowth. for bioenergy for expanding their rapid of OECDbecause non-OECD the production areheatcountries larger in than Opportunities period. projection the throughout heat for demand bioenergy total of two-thirds about of share its maintaining demand industrial 294 from Scenario Policies New the in grows sectors consumption final the in heat for consumption bioenergy Global sectors). services and residential industrial, the (in boilers stand-alone co-generation) or industrial Bioenergy India theonlyotherregion generating more than100 European Union generate 259 325 generating regions, other all of ahead well surges China period, projection the Over bioenergy. from electricity most the generate generation soarsbioenergy to 1 Scenario, New Policies the In generation. renewables non-hydro 331 reached bioenergy from generation terms was about half that of absolute wind power in but more increase than fiveThe times thatcountries. of solarnon-OECD in PV.than By 2010, OECD the in increases larger with year, per 6.9% by grew bioenergy from generation electricity global 2010, to 2000 From India reaches abouthalfthat oftheEuropean Unionby 2035. 140 about reaching demand primary bioenergy period, projection the over industry biofuel increases inthetransport andpower sectors. Brazil isalsoprojected to have athriving
mboe/d in2010to 1.7
Mtoe in 2035. in Mtoe s u lrey y lnig adts o psegr ih-uy eils (PLDVs). vehicles light-duty passenger for mandates blending by largely due is
487 is also used to produce heat in combined heat and power facilities (such as in as (such facilities power and heat combined in heat produce to used also is
TWh in 2035. Curr Bioenergy demand, excluding traditional biomass, in both China and China both in biomass, traditional excluding demand, Bioenergy
mboe/d by 2035.Correspondingly, period. Ethanol continues to be the main biofuel, main the be to continues Ethanol period. Outlook
TWh and 272
mboe/d in 2010 in mboe/d ently, the European Union, United States, Brazil and Japan
mboe/d in 2010 World EnergyOutlook 2012
te n 2010 in Mtoe TWh globally, TWh
3); but its but 3);
TWh from bioener
TWh by 2035. by TWh to 3.4 to to 1.1 use is less widely supported by policyby supported widely less is use
TWh.
o bu 480 about to accounting for over 40% of global of 40% over for accounting mboe/d in 2035 in mboe/d
mboe/d in 2035. theshare ofbiofuelsin road gy respectively in 2035, with The United States and the and States United The
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Global Energy Trends
te n 2035, in Mtoe (Table Outlook Biodiesel holds
7.4). This 7.4). period, with 23/10/2012 11:39:23 211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 221 © OECD/IEA, 2012 Chapter 7 Table 2022 andblendingmandates contained inthe Renewable FuelStandard. 136 of target production a policies: demand-side and supply- of biodiesel–are lesssignificant (see Chapter less of an issue for biodiesel demand, as efficiency improvements in trucks – the main users overall fuel consumption of the car – have a moderating impact on ethanol demand. This is of biofuel to 2035, although passenger vehicle efficiency improvements – which reduce the (E15) has been met with similar criticism. Across all regions, ethanol remains the main type therecent bydecision theEPA to allow retailers to ethanol15% sell gasolineblendedwith consumers, who are concerned about the impact on their car engines. In the United States, resistancemetwith beengasoline from has with ethanolblendedto(E10) 5% (E5)10% by move to Germany in regulation recent a example, For challenges. additional overcoming first without not although time, over increase to expected are rates blending Generally, of road transport fuel demandin2035. emerge over the to expected are markets new but 2010, in consumption biofuel global of 90% about for accountedtogether Brazil and Union European States, United The 2010. in 4% from up – fuel demand by 2020 (in line with the target set in the renewable directive) and 16% by 2035 use either gasoline or ethanol. In the European Union, biofuels meet 10% of road transport can that flex-fuel vehicles of adoption wider following 2035, by one-third about reaching Brazil maintains the highest share of renewables in transport in the world through to 2035, Latin America European Union World Asia Non-OECD E. Europe/Eurasia Europe Americas OECD Brazil India China United Stat
7.4
|
es ⊳
Renewable
Scenario Ethanol andbiodieselconsumptionbyregionintheNewPolicies Outlook period, notably China and India, where biofuels meet around 5% 0023 0023 0023 002035 2010 2035 2010 2035 2010 2035 2010 energy outlook energy . 3.4 1.0 . 1.7 0.4 . 1.7 0.6 0.3 . 0.8 0.3 . 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 . 0.5 0.0 . 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.6 tao Biodiesel Ethanol (mboe/d) 0.9 0.0 1.4 1.5
. 1.1 0.3 . . . . %6% 3% 2.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 . . . . %13% 4% 2.5 0.8 0.8 0.2 . . . 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 . . . 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 . . . 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 . . . 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 . . . 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 . 0.2 0.0 . 0.2 0.0
3). 0.6
. . %8% 3% 4.5 1.3 0.3 . 0.8 0.2 . 0.7 0.2 0.6 0.6 biofuels Total
billion litres of litres billion . 2 37% 22% 0.9 1.7 1.7 Share ofroad 2 22% 12% %5% 0% %5% 1% %16% 4% %4% 1% %2% 1% %13% 4% %19% 5% %15% 4% transport biofuel by biofuel 23/10/2012 11:39:23 221 11 16 12 10 14 13 17 15 18 2 5 8 1 3 6 4 7 9 211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 222 © OECD/IEA, 2012 222 total from subtracted is land such and priority given available is landbefore considering use for energy crops. crops food for demand land assessment, this In 5. bioe global The feedstock production (Box minimise oravoid direct andindirect landusechange asaresult ofexpanding biomass (especially Brazil),the United States andChina.Government policies willbeneeded to largestthe resourceregionswith the potentials America are Latin of acrossregions.Some distributed evenly not are resources bioenergy Potential 2012). IIASA, 2011a; IEA, 2011; estimates (IPCC, higher, other magnitude to similar of order an be to supply potential the 1 nearly is bioenergy for demand energy primary 2035, In production. food with competing without Scenario Policies New the in demand projected Our assessment indicates that global bioenergy resources are more than sufficient to meet Supply andTrade biofuel use by 2035. all of 27% for account they where countries, OECD in used mostly are They production. in the New Policies Scenario. By 2035, advanced biofuels make up18%oftotal biofuel 2020 around conventional fuels) with competitive yet not available(though commercially investment intechnologies to produce advanced biofuels, whichare assumedto become essential be advancedwill produced.to amounttoattractof support be biofuels Financial The United States is currently the only country in the world to have a clear target for the biofuels prospects, astargets andaccompanying measures are largely absent to date. The paceofdevelopment ofadvanced biofueltechnologies alsoaddsuncertainty to been defined inadvance for various types ofbiofuels. Such restrictions are already in place in the United States, where emissions thresholds have fuels. oil-based with blended be to fuels, fossil to relative emissions, substantially reduce We assumethat theEuropean Unionmeets its2020target by allowing onlybiofuelsthat cases. in some support for justification important another provides imports oil reduce to about the benefits of including biofuels in climate mitigation policies, though their potential for greenhouse-gas emission savings from some conventional biofuels has raised questions Growth in biofuels will largely continue to depend on policy support. The limited potential f hs potential. this of (switchgrass, poplarandmiscanthus) for advanced biofuels –make upthevast majority feedstocks for biodiesel(rapeseed, soybean andoilpalmfruit)lignocellulosic material sugar andstarch feedstocks for ethanol (corn, sugarcane andsugar beet), vegetable-oil types of feedstocks. Energy crops – those grown specifically for energy purposes, including overall bioenergy supplypotential. Forestry products, yields. grown specifically crop for future energy purposes, maintain contribute somewhat and less to the soils replenish to field the in remain must that portion sustainable the on largely depending bioenergy, of Mtoe 600 over provide to potential corn as stover, such activities, bagasse – sugarcane thefrom have scraps and logging from nergy supply potential is the aggregate of the supply potentials several supply for aggregate the the of potential is supply nergy 5 eius te etvr aeil fo hretn cos and forestry crops harvesting from materials leftover the – Residues
7.3). World EnergyOutlook 2012
900 Mtoe, 900
|
Global Energy Trends while we estimate we while 18/10/2012 15:49:52 211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 223 © OECD/IEA, 2012 oe ein’ aaiy o et ead ih oetc eore, atclry in the particularly resources, domestic (Figure India and Union European with demand meet to capacity regions’ some In theNew Policies Scenario, trade expands to over 10%ofsupply, aspolicygoals exceed Chapter 7 transport over longdistances and increase performance incertain applications, suchasco-firing. 7. Biomass pellets, a high-density uniform product, can be made from residues and other feedstocks to facilitate 6. For more information on the World Energy Model and this module, see Box based and lignocellulosic crops) provide the largest share of supply until late in the (Figure late until supply of share share larger slightly a provide agricultural) (forestry and residues when period, projection largest the provide crops) lignocellulosic and based oroil- starch- (sugar-, crops the shares Energy time. over change however, feedstocks sectors, different by and transport provided the power in demand higher significantly In theNew Policies Scenario, allsources ofsolidbiomasssupplyincrease to meet of pellets, accounted for about7%ofdemandinthe power andtransport sectors in2010. International trade of biofuels and solid biomass for power generation, usually in the form the remaining portionmet by biogas and waste products. of demandfor bioenergy inthepower andtransport sectors throughout theOutlook biomass supplythrough 2035.Intotal, solid biomassfeedstocks meet aboutthree-quarters of solid 10% about to provide continuing time, substantially over growsforestryproducts from bioenergy of supply The consumed. is residues for potential sustainable maximum advanced biofuels. By 2035 in the New Policies Scenario, about one-third of the estimated biofuels andtechnology development enablingresidues to make inroads asafeedstock for supply andtrade ofbioenergy. the analyse to year this Model Energy IEA’sWorld the to added was module new A demand. model asthe in the economics improve through technological advances andpolicies raise andlearning, occurs biofuels to advanced conventional from transition costs. The transportation including basis, least-cost a on unsatisfied supply match available to with pellets demand biomass solid and biodiesel ethanol, for matrix trade global a uses model The market. global the supply needs energy domestic and food supplementary region, a given in supplies are obtained onthe globalmarket. Regions withavailable resources beyond demands all satisfy cannot resources bioenergy domestic sector.If energy the supplying before met are demands agricultural where prices). Regional resources are treated as“bioenergy available for energy purposes”, and compete witheachotheronthe basisofconversion costs (includingfeedstock trade) existing of account taking (after priority given are resources domestic region, and sector each in bioenergy for demand meet to order In production. biofuel and sector power the for costs conversion technology and potentials supply bioenergy of
7.1
7.4). This is due t
⊳
|
Renewable energy outlook energy Renewable and trademodule Improvements totheWorldEnergyModel:bioenergysupply o bioenergy demand inthepower sector far surpassingdemand for 6
7.5). An incr An 7.5). t nlds 5 ein wt dtie representation detailed with regions 25 includes It easing share of supply for bioenergy in the in bioenergyfor supply of share easing www.worldenergyoutlook.org. , with 18/10/2012 15:49:52 223 7
11 16 12 10 14 13 17 15 18 2 5 8 1 3 6 4 7 9 211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 224 © OECD/IEA, 2012 224 imports net – represent exporter less than1% ofitstotal ethanol consumption. an also is it though America, Latin in countries other and Brazil for ethanol in Asia (F.O. Licht, 2012). The United States is a major importer of ethanol from gap supply growing the is continue to set is that trend emerging Another Indonesia. and America Latin from mainly coming important, more are biodiesel of imports but limited, Ethanol importsto the European Unionfrom countries outsidetheregion are currently biodiesel were traded mainlybetween European Unioncountries in2011(REN21, 2012). Union countries accounting for two-thirds of the trade in 2010 (Lamers, 2012). Ethanol and in the form ofwood pellets, increased six-fold between 2000and2010, withEuropean The projected growth inbioenergy trade isinlinewithrecent trends. Solidbiomasstrade, as production increases sharply to meet growing domestic demand. domestically by the end of the period. China becomesconsumed a major biofuels producer is over time production US of all nearly though biofuels, of producers largest the be to aresettoAsia becomealso large exporters.biofuels BrazilUnited the Statesand continue in countries developing non-OECD other and region, ASEAN the market.Indonesia, world combined supplyasimilarvolume ofbiofuels(withmore emphasis onbiodiesel) to the 0.2 approaching exports with world, through 2035.Brazil isset to bethelargest exporter ofbiofuels(mainlyethanol) inthe Scenario, theEuropean UnionandIndiaare far andaway thelargest importers ofbiofuels Trade ofbiofuelsexpands rapidly through the Outlookperiod, from 0.2 2035 2020 2010 Figure amounts ofbioenergy for domestic useinthepower sector. roles intheworld market, China, the European Union, IndiaandBrazil alsoproduce large States, CanadaandRussiaexpected to bethemajorpellet exporters. Whileplaying limited European UnionandJapanare projected to be thelargest pellet importers, withthe United to about40 power sector ismet from withinter-regional imports, trade increasing from 6 about % 0 0 6%8%100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 0.9
7.4
mboe/d in mboe/d
Mtoe in2035, oraboutone-t
⊳
by feedstockintheNewPoliciesScenario Share ofsolidbiomasssupplyforbiofuelsandpowergeneration 2035, or about one-fifth of total biofuel demand. In the New the In Policies demand. one-fifth of total biofuel about or 2035, World EnergyOutlook 2012
bed in mboe/d enth ofbioenergy supplyinthepower sector. The 2035. Other Latin American countries American Latin Other 2035.
|
Global Energy Trends Agricultural residues Forestry residue Forestry products Lignocellulosic crops Sugar/starch crop Oil-based crops
mboe/d in2011to
Mtoe in2010 s s
18/10/2012 15:49:52
211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 225 © OECD/IEA, 2012 Chapter 7 5 reaching generation with Scenario, Policies New the in period projection 3 Hydro is currently the largest renewable source for power generation in the world, producing Hydropower schemes. certification and criteria sustainability as further,well developed as be to need standards barrier, important isanother couldwhich prevent importsandexports increasing fast enough to meet demand. Technicalor ships, infrastructure port facilities, processing as such biomass,transporting infrastructureand of handling fortrade.Lack biodiesel and ethanol currently limitingfactor one are biofuels, to mainly apply tariffs, which export and Import forinternationallytechnicalfactorsdemand tradedEconomic bioenergy.and limit to tend Notes: Trade withinWEO Figure continues to develop someofits vast hydro potential (Box 7.2). jump hydropower capacity in 2035 close to that of the entire OECD in 2011 (Figure 1 Global hydropower capacity isprojected to increase from 1 China, IndiaandBrazil. notably America, Latin and Asia in is output hydroincremental Moststrongest. is growth demand electricity and higher is potential remaining the wherecountries, non-OECD in is 2035 and 2010 between production in increase the of 90% Nearly limited. is – exploited in hydropower production in OECD countries – where the best resources have already been 2035, United States European Union Indi Chin Non-OECD Japa OECD Worl
680 431 a n a d s from 42 from s its share in total electricity generation dropping marginally to 15%. Projected growth
GW in GW TWh and mee and TWh
7.5
|
Renewable energy outlook energy Renewable 2035. China’s capacity almost doubles, to 420 to China’sdoubles, almost2035. capacity ⊳
2035 2010 2035 2010 2035 2010 2035 2010 2035 2010 2035 2010 2035 2010 2035 2010 GW t GW from domesticproductionandimports,20102035 Share ofbioenergydemandforbiofuelsandpowergeneration %20% 0%
o 115 GW in India, from 89 from India, in GW 115 o ting 16% of global electricity needs in 2010. It remains so over the over so remains It 2010. in needs electricity global of 16% ting regions isexcluded. Aggregates present averages ofthe relevant WEO 40%
0 0 100% 80% 60% GW t GW o over 130 over o
GW,
bringing its total installedtotal its bringing 067
GW in GW
GW in2011to o Brazil and Africa and Brazil
7.6). Capacity Imports producon Domesc
677 regions.
TWh in TWh 18/10/2012 15:49:52 225 ver
11 16 12 10 14 13 17 15 18 2 5 8 1 3 6 4 7 9 211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 226 © OECD/IEA, 2012 226 wind 342 from from dramatically increases generation Global source. renewable other any of that than greater is wind government policies.Inthe New Policies Scenario, incremental electricity outputfrom cost-competitive more it becomes conventionalwith sources electricity generation, of a large driven to degree supportive by as rapidly expand to continue to set is power Wind Wind power Box Figure
make amajorcontribution to providing energy for all. Hydr needs are huge: 590 energyAfrica’s funding. for candidate possible a as River Congo the on project Inga the Grand identified which countries, in developing investment promoting initiative the CleanDevelopment MechanismundertheKyoto protocol andarecent G20 opportunities for funding are enhanced by several international programmes, including considerations are barriers to securing the environmental large initial local investments required. as However, well as risks, market and Political funding. of availability the particularly Africa, in hydropower of development the threaten challenges Several construction, accounting for over 20%ofthe continent’s total electricity generation. capacity risesto almost 80 Congo, Ethiopia andCameroon (WEC, 2010).Inthe New Policies Scenario, hydropower 1 estimated to exceed been has potential The technical 2011). IPCC, 2010; (UNEP, developed been has potential hydropower supplying 27 2010, In GW 10 20 30 40 50 60
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.2 opower, both large and small scale, is an abundant source of clean energy that can
7.6
⊳ OECD
16% of the continent’s electricity. However, only a small fraction of Africa’scontinent’s of electricity. fraction the However, small of a 16% only
⊳ Hydropower prospectsinAfrica
W of GW Policies Scenario Installed hydropowercapacityinselectedregionstheNew Chin
million of its ntle hdooe cpct i Arc gnrtd 105 generated Africa in capacity hydropower installed aI
GW by 2035, ndia
TWh in 2010 in TWh people still lack access to electricity (see Chapter World EnergyOutlook 2012 te saBrazi Other Asia
includingseveral projects currently under 800 to around 2 around to
TWh, loc TWh, lA ated largely in the Republic of Republic the in largelyated
680 TWh in TWh 680 fric a
|
Global Energy Trends 90% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75% 2035, pushing up pushing 2035, (right axis in 2035 renewables Share of 2011 to 2035 capacity Addiona
TWh,
18).
l ) 18/10/2012 15:49:52
211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 227 © OECD/IEA, 2012 2035 Chapter 7 Table flexible capacity into thepower mixinorder to maintain the overall reliability ofsupply. other variable renewables) underlines the importance ofupgrading networks andadding (and wind of role growing capacity. The wind offshore installed of two-thirds for account above wholesale well electricity pricesinmost countries. By then, theEuropean Union andChinacombined remain costs wind offshore 2035, by produced electricity of unit per reductions cost the Despite deployment. through scale required the on savings cost achievement of the about uncertainties significant still areThere governmentsupport. by expands rapidly, from 4 Wind power capacity worldwide increases from 238 electricity supplyby 2035. in the United States, ChinaandIndia,ineachofwhichwindreaches ashare of6-8% electricity generated in2035,compared lessthan5%in2010.Growth with isalsostrong of one-fifth almost for accounts it where Union, European the in penetration market of totalsharegenerationin its electricity highest achieveslevel the Wind from7.3%. 1.6% to Solar photovoltaics in the future. In the New Policies Scenario, electricity generation from solar PV in 2035 is 2035 in PV solar generation from electricity Scenario,Policies New the In future. the in so do to continue to expected is and years recent in rapidly grown has capacity PV solar Solar PV produced only a small fraction of the world’s total electricity in 2010, but installed OECD Americas Europe Asia Oceania Non-OECD E. Europe/Eurasia Asia Middle East Africa Latin America World European Union United States Japan China India (Table
7.5
|
7.5). Onshore
⊳ Renewable energy outlook energy Renewable
the NewPoliciesScenario(GW) Installed onshoreandoffshorewindpowercapacitybyregionin
0122 2035 2020 2011 GW in2011to 175 10285 150 24 4 923 546 234
4 9 143 90 47 9 11231 161 91 8 22482 262 84 7 29411 239 79 6 11280 191 62 1 4 93 44 16 9 19218 159 90 53 wind makes up four-fifths of this growth. Offshore wind capacity Wind Onshore 6 38 3 26 2 02 0 14 1 2 17175 107 1 34 16 1 19 11 441 16 16 21 15
GW by 2035,
0122 2035 2020 2011 Wind Offshor 4 4 03 0 0 9 9 3 9 2 0 09 0 09 0 09 0 4 4 ------
GW in2011to almos itsdeployment being underpinned 3 13 5 35555 315 154 113 31 2 7 9 14304 184 95 72 24 4 15 3 561098 586 238 175 40 2 7 9 12288 182 94 70 23 4 3 0 26 2 3 0 e 2 5 12202 112 53 26 1 4 9 161 93 47 18 14 6 8 21544 271 85 62 5 7 28464 248 79 53 4 6 20326 200 62 46 5 2 2 0 2 1 4 1 1 32 3
0122 2035 2020 2011 1 4 97 44 16 6 Total Wind t 1
1 49 19 1 22 11 100
GW in 18/10/2012 15:49:53 227 25 19 23 16 11 16 12 10 14 13 17 15 18 2 5 8 1 3 6 4 7 9 211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 228 © OECD/IEA, 2012 Figure (Figure 600 over just rises to just over 2%in2035.Installed solarPV capacity increases from 67 228 were and cases some in generous very been have tariffs These years. 10-20 of periods for typically guaranteed, are returns as risk project reduce considerably which tariffs, in The increase in solar PV installations in European Union countries is thanks largely to feed- period, althoughat lower rates astheoversupply situation is corrected. projection the over Centre and fall continue to costsPV Solar 2012). Finance, Energy New Bloomberg UNEP Collaborating School (Frankfurt 44% by fell costs generating PV 2012, solar of quarter first the and 2010 of quarter first the Between (Spotlight). oversupply fallsPVcosts,solar in resultedwhich largely from widespread deployment substantialand In PV capacity in2035are China(113 increases from 4 capacity States, United the In 2010). in 1% from (up 2035 in generation electricity its of 2011. Over the Outlook 2011. The European Unionaccounts for over three-quarters ofglobalsolarPV capacity in of end installedrespectively the capacity of at GWPV, 13 solar and leadersin GW 25 with 30 was just 1 This extremely rapid expansion isinlinewithrecent experience –globalsolarPV capacity average ofcosts throughout allregions, for bothlarge androoftop installations. on each of the columns (capacity addition times cost per GW). Unit investment costs representglobal installed the weighted total 2035, In capacity of solar photovoltaics reaches some 600 are shown. replacements, include which additions, capacity Gross Notes: over 26-fold that of 2010, increasing from 32
vestment in solar PV installations has been encouraged in recent years by substantial by years recent in encouraged been has installations PV solar in vestment Dollars per kW (2011)
GW, 2 70 1 20 1 50 1 80 2 10 2 40 300 600 900
0 a 75% increase. Around 60% of the additions were in Germany and Italy, the world 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.7).
7.7 01
GW in2000.Over the
⊳
$222 billion in GW
GWt in2011 resulting investmentrequirementsintheNewPoliciesScenario Solar PVgrosscapacityadditions,averageunitcost,and 00 2035, thanks to continuing cost reductions and government support government and reductions cost continuing to thanks 2035,
period, EU capacity increases to some 146 some toincreases capacity EU period, $246 billion 200 o 68
course of2011, solarPV capacity increased by about GW2035. Othe in
GW), India (85 $217 billion 300 World EnergyOutlook 2012
GW.
TWh to Total investment in each period is indicated vertically 40 $238 billion 05 Gross capacit
GW) andJapan(54 r countriesr with largeamounts of solar 846
TWh. Its shar 00 ya ddion $335 billion
| 60
GW, Global Energy Trends 0 s(
GW). e in total generation GW) accounting 5%accounting for
GW in2011to 2031 2026 2021 2016 2012 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 03 03 02 02 01 5 0 5 0 5 18/10/2012 15:49:53
211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 229 © OECD/IEA, 2012 Chapter 7 Spain, butthere are alsodevelopments inanumberofotherregions inthe later years of 2010 and2035.Themajorityof new projects inthenear term are inthe United States and plants soars from 1.6 (CSP) power solar concentrating from generation electricity Scenario, Policies New the In Other renewables for electricity andheat maintain publicacceptance. and prices electricity in increases unnecessary avoid to fall, costs technology as additions attract sufficient investment while yet permitting adjustment of subsidies for new capacity in tariffs are passed on to consumers in most cases, it is essential to design incentives which quickly by reducing feed-in tariffs tolevels that better reflected costs. As the costs of feed- to massive investment in solar PV installations. In some countries, governments responded returns offered were closer to those typically associated with high-risk investments and led thePV. solar result, a of costs As falling rapidly the reflect to enough quickly adjusted not oversupply continues over theshort term. demand for solarPV inthe shortterm isuncertain. Inthe New Policies Scenario, the its but market, potential large a represents PV.China solar for demand of growth of and demand endures. How quickly the balance is restored depends largely on the rate Difficulties are between imbalance supply the to while shortlikely term, in the persist panels from China. China, resulting in theand imposition ofEurope import tariffsStates, by theUnited United Statesthe in 2012 between on solar arisen have tensions Trade 2012. April in – Europe in manufacturer cell solar largest the – Q-Cells Germany’s as such bankrupt, gone have already companies large Several competitive. more becoming and costs A wave of consolidation has been triggered within the industry, with a view to reducing particularly those in the United States and Europe, have suffered large financial losses. from falling solarPV prices, butsolarPV manufacturers around theworld, and greatly benefited have consumers electricity final and systems PV solar of Installers these two factors have driven down thecost ofPV systems sharply(IEA, 2011b). learning, technological from reductions cost with Along manufacture.for input key a that year. Since 2008, there has also been a very sharp fall in the cost of purified silicon, higher 20 around was production capacity cell estimated solar 2011, By panels. PV solar manufacturing capacity hasexpanded muchmore quicklythanactualdemand for expandedwhich manufacturing capacity massively to support exports. Inrecent years, China, in then and first matured, demand where countries, OECD in initially demand, Solar PV cellmanufacturing capacity hasgrown rapidly inresponse to booming global than production, two-thirds higher than the new capacity installed worldwide installed capacity new the than higher two-thirds production, than
|
Renewable energy outlook energy Renewable
TWh to about280 Beyond thesolarPVbubble SPOTLIGHT
TWh andcapacity from 1.3
GW to 72
GW betw
GW 18/10/2012 15:49:53 een 229 11 16 12 10 14 13 17 15 18 2 5 8 1 3 6 4 7 9 211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 230 © OECD/IEA, 2012 consumption of geothermal heat increases from 3 final Scenario, Policies New the In States. United and Union European the in buildings in also increases strongly, from 1.4 to projected the substantially during expand is heat solar of use country’s The 2012). (REN21, 2011 in capacity heating Solar heat, usedmainlyinbuildingsto provide hotwater, grows from 19 requiring infancy, their in still are significantimprovements technologies to reduce costs. relevant meeting the to contribute but to demand, potential electricity notable has power Wave viable. considered be to lines transmission existing to proximity and range tidal large a requiring considerations, from less than1 from lessthan1 generationElectricity from energy, marine and tidal includes which wave power, increases generation. electricity for geothermal of use their increase also Africa, North particularly countries, increases occur in the United States, Japan and in Asia (Philippines and Indonesia). African and capacity fr and 2035,coming mainlyfrom the European Union, United States, ChinaandJapan. 70 230 third going to hydro. to windpower and solar PV, while non-OECD countries invest $3.1 countries invest $2.9 countries invest more thannon-OECD inallsources, except hydropower andCSP. OECD hydropower$1.5 totals 70% in2035.Investment inwindpower higherthanfor is any othersource, at $2.1 almost reaching 2012-2035, from capacity generation power in investment total of 62% with annualinvestment increasing to over $300 New Policies Scenario requires cumulative investment of $6.0 the in capacity generation electricity renewables-based global in increase projected The Investment Costs ofrenewables 68 from increases generation electricity geothermal Global technologies withthermal storage. capacity factor ofCSPplants increases over the period, because ofincreasing useofCSP cost reductions are necessary to make CSP plants competitive on a largesignificant scale. The averageand improvements technology Further technologies. CSP the of mature most currently in operation or under construction are based on parabolic trough technology, the plantsEast.Most Middle the followedby China, in highest is capacity CSP 2035, In Africa. the Outlook period, including North Africa, the European Union, India, Australia and South re presenting 35% of total investment in renewables capacity (Figure capacity renewables in investment total of 35% presenting
Mtoe worldwide be om 11
TWh to almost 60 GW to 15
trillion intotal r GW to o
tween 2010and2035.Chinaaccounted for 68%ofglobalsolar trillion and solar and trillion
GW. Tidalpo ver 40 Outlook
Mtoe t
TWh betwe GW betw World EnergyOutlook 2012 enewables capacity, ofwhichalmost two-thirds goes o about7 period, at about 30 about at period, PV $1.3 PV wer islimited to select sites due to economic een 2010and2035.Most ofthese projected en 2010and2035, withcapacity growing
billion by 2035.Rene trillion ov trillion
Mtoe to almos Mtoe. Geothermal he er the projection period. OECD period. projection the er
Mtoe in Mtoe TWh to TWh trillion (in y
t 20 |
trillion, with ov Global Energy Trends
more than 300 than more 2035. US productionUS 2035. Mtoe betw
wables account for 7.8). Inv 7.8). ear-2011 dollars), at isusedmainly
Mtoe to o estment in estment een 2010
er one- trillion,
TWh ver 18/10/2012 15:49:53 211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 231 © OECD/IEA, 2012 Chapter 7 any of most the declined have costs generating PV Solar technologies. fuel-based fossil costs. However, production based on these lowercosts, most renewable technologies are in not yet competitive with resulted has of many years recent basis) in per-kilowatt technologies a energy renewable (on costs investment in fall the sector, electricity the In Production costs investment is inOECD countries, where demand muchofglobal isconcentrated. to $43 amounts conventional biodiesel Investmentin biodiesel). and (ethanol biofuels advanced $78 total, of the one-fifth over Just plants. ethanol conventional to goes $360 The projected demandfor biofuels intheNew Policies Scenariocalls for atotal ofaround residential customers to the grid. from flowing electricity to accommodate networks distribution investment of additional reinforcement the require in would it though needs, investment transmission future one-quarter. to around Extensive deployment ofdistributed renewables, suchassolarPV inbuildings, can reduce increases share this strongly, grow to continues renewables of lines, accounting for almost 10%. In the European Union and Japan, where the deployment transmission for higher significantly is share This 6). Chapter (see networks electricity in $230 below just estimated at are investments additional Those reinforced. networks distribution and transmission existing best renewable energy sources, additional transmission lines will need to be built and some To accommodate more renewables-based capacity, often in remote locations to capture the from ashare of16%in2010.Allother renewable technologies start from ashare ofless2010. than2%in starting 2010-2035, in point percentage a half by declines generation total in hydropower of share The * Figure Billion dollars (2011) 1 20 1 60 2 00 2 40 400 800
ilo to billion 0
0 0 0 0 billion (12% of
7.8
Wind |
Renewable energy outlook energy Renewable ⊳ be invested in bio-refineries worldwide. Almost two-thirds of this sum of this two-thirds Almost worldwide. bio-refineries in invested be 2012-2035 generation byregionandtypeintheNewPoliciesScenario, Cumulative investmentinrenewables-basedelectricity Hydro* the total) and in aviation fuels around $12 Solar PV
billion from billion Biomass S Geo- CSP 2012-2035, or 3.2% of the total investmenttotal the of 3.2% or 2012-2035, thermal Marine
billion (3%). Mos 6% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
billion, g billion, (right axis 2010-2035 share, generaon Change in OECD Non-OECD t biofuels oes to oes ) 18/10/2012 15:49:54 231
11 16 12 10 14 13 17 15 18 2 5 8 1 3 6 4 7 9 211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 232 © OECD/IEA, 2012 232 competitive earlier, withothers becoming competitive later. capacity factors, increasing thelevelised costs ofenergy generation. Withinaregion, the best sites may become costs ofrenewables. For example, sites withsub-optimal windqualitycharacteristics reduce windturbine availableof quality The 8. resources can vary acrosswidely region,a resulting differencesin generationthe in depending onfeedstock andregion. here, depicted than larger even be can variations cost subsidies; for adjusted not are costs Biofuels 2011. to 2009 from Rotterdam and Singapore States, United the in price spot average monthly the from taken is prices spot diesel and gasoline of range The Conventional. Conv.= Scenario; Policies New = NPS Notes: support. the early 2030s, at which point it becomes competitive in the market without government from windfalls below wholesalepricesintheEuropean Union around 2020andinChina generationenergy of cost levelised the 2035, and 2011 Between scale. of economies and progress technological of result a as future, the in fall to continue to expected are costs Its others. several in close and countries, few a in competitivegeneration today fuel-based fossil is with it where to time over declined also has power wind onshore of cost The below thewholesaleprice inany oftheWEO to costs in 2011. However, this is not enough to decrease average solar PV generation costs over the Outlookperiod aswell, falling by between 40%and60%inmost regions compared (Spotlight) and are expected to achieve the largest reduction of any generating technology renewable energy technology over the past two decades, especiallyinthelast few years Figure decrease through 2035. and their costs depend greatly onbiomassfeedstock prices, whichare notexpected to power mature already are technologies ofbioenergy as the time, over reduction little contrast,see by plants, Those level. competitive a above well remain but the fall period, throughout Outlook andmarine CSP wind, offshore for costs production electricity The prices remain at low levels due to low gas prices andthe absence ofaCO Dollars per litre of gasoline equivalent 1.6 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 0
8 7.9 aoieEthanol Gasoline However, wind does not become competitive in the United States, as wholesale as States, United the in competitive However,become not does wind
⊳
Indicative biofuelsproductioncostsandspotoilprices Conv.A dvanced World EnergyOutlook 2012 Diesel regions duringthe projection period. ov Advanced Conv. Biodiese
l |
Global Energy Trends 2 price. (2009-2011): spot prices Oil product Biofuels costs: 450 Scenario reducon in Further cost 2035 NP 2011-2035 Price overlap 2011 Range Average S 18/10/2012 15:49:54
211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 233 © OECD/IEA, 2012 Chapter 7 investors’ maintain United fifteenpastStates the demonstrate years to powerover the in forwind the of effects critical is it credit tax production the of renewables,expirations Repeated policies. consistent through confidence of deployment sustained ensure To (for example, tax credits) orby end-users collectively. the economy ortheconsumer. Thecosts may bemet either through government budgets from mandates, arise quotas and portfolio standards, which support the uptake of renewables at higher costs to subsidies Indirect tariffs). feed-in (or rates buy-back preferential and premiums price investment, and production for credits tax includes support Direct Subsidies to renewables are generally paidto producers. They can be direct orindirect. related to thecapacity installed inprevious years willcontinue for the fixed duration. of a renewable technology become competitive with fossil-fuel technologies, the payments the cost of energy services. This structure means that even after the costs for new capacity new capacity installations needs to decline to avoid excessive and unnecessary increases in cost reductions for renewable technologies are achieved, the level of support provided for year,specific a installedcapacityin 20 years. fixedis typically As duration, a and for which Most of thecurrent supportmechanismsfor renewables applyto electricity produced by cease to beawarded to additional capacity. ontheir compete toown merits with conventional them technologies. At that point, any support should, accordingly, to enable reductions cost sufficient achieve to energy technologies renewable help to is the goal ultimate technologies The nascent support. without or deny mature to opportunity fuels) other to attributable (such costs factor in externalities environmental fail to as market the in imperfections is that justification The of renewables orraise theirrevenues, helpingthem compete withfossil fueltechnologies. To foster thedeployment ofrenewable energy, governments use subsidies to lower thecost Subsidies to renewables become more competitive. to biofuels advanced and conventional help period Increasing oilpricesover the Outlook Scenario. Policies New the in 2035 and 2010 between 10-20% by decreasing reductions, biofuel production costs by 2035. Advanced biofuel technologies have higher potentialin conventional cost reductions small only in significantly, resulting decrease to expected not conventional biofuel production processes are expected to fall, biofuel feedstock costs are the Over diesel. conventional than more significantly cost currently feedstocks, common most the rapeseed, and soybeans from such asintheUnited States andEurope, isgenerally more expensive. Biodiesel produced and climate conditions for the high yield crop. Ethanol produced from corn or sugar beets, soil favourable to due gasoline than produce to cheaper often is sugarcane from derived ethanol Brazil, In a few factors. climatic and characteristics land technology,feedstock, with the on fuels, fossil conventional than higher exceptions, are biofuels produce to costs The
| e.g. Brazil (Figure
Renewable energy outlook energy Renewable
7.9). Biofuelcosts v Outlook period, while the investment costs for ary greatlyary by region, depending mainly 18/10/2012 15:49:54 233 11 16 12 10 14 13 17 15 18 2 5 8 1 3 6 4 7 9 211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 234 © OECD/IEA, 2012 and bioenergy ($15 grow to about$185 $24 to$58 by solarPV grows rapidly inthe mediumterm, reaching $77 $69 Support provided to bioenergy for power generation continues to grow over time, reaching Figure majority going to conventionalin 2035. biofuels $14 powerreceivesOnshore beforeyear aroundwind until 2020, each moresupport falling to 234 of the comparable oil-based products. they are calculated by multiplying the volumes consumed by the difference of their cost to the reference price of subsidy ispaidfor each unitofelectricitygenerated by the installed capacity over itslifetime. For biofuels, of cost average the between difference the takingelectricity generated by the renewable energy technology and the regional by wholesale electricity price. Thislevel calculated are renewables to subsidies Projected 9. – regions some in – introduction the and prices fuel fossil higher to due mainly increase, per-unit basisasthecosts ofrenewable energy technologies fall andelectricity prices While subsidies to renewables inthe power sector increase intotal, they declineona Notes: Otherincludesgeothermal, marineandsmallhydro. CSP=Concentrating solarpower. ($25 generation electricity for technology energy remainder to biofuels(Figure in various forms, up24%from 2010, ofwhich$64 $88 estimated an received hydro large excluding renewables 2011, In calculating subsidies and make a credible commitment not to enact retrospective changes. period. Governments need to monitor market developments closely, set clear rules for inconsistent policies, asthe windindustry hasexperienced boom andbust cycles over this Billion dollars (2011) 250 100 150 200
50 billion in2035, ex billion by billion billion in2011, incre 0 2007
billion in 2035, in billion
itrclprojecons historical 7.10 2035, as this technology becomes increasinglycompetitive.becomestechnology Biofuels receive this as 2035,
2011 ⊳
Policies Scenario Global renewableenergysubsidiesbysourceintheNew
billion). IntheNew P
ceeding that received by any other technology. The amount received as retiredas installations are new, by replaced less expensive capacity. billion in2020andreach almost $240 0522 22 002035 2030 2025 2020 2015 asing to $46
7.10). SolarPV receiv World EnergyOutlook 2012
billion in2020and$59 olicies Scenario, total subsidies to renewables
billion), follo billion), ed more thanany otherrenewable
billion wen
billion in2027, bef billion in2035,withthevast
billion peryear by 2035. wed by wind ($21 wind by wed
| t to electricity andthe
Global Energy Trends
billion in sub in billion Electricity: Biofuels: Solar PV Bioenerg Wind onshore Wind offshore CSP Other Ethanol Biodiesel ore falling
billion) y sidies 18/10/2012 15:49:54 9
211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 235 © OECD/IEA, 2012 Chapter 7 Figure targeting ethanol. in the world, almost $50 In 2011, theEuropean Unionprovided the highest level oftotal renewable energy support Note: Other includes concentrating solar power, geothermal, marine energy, small hydro and wind offshore. Figure time, with technological advanceslowering the costs whileoil prices increase. over decline also biofuel of unit per Subsidies 2035. through support require to continue (Figure generated are electricity unsubsidised of amounts growing competitive, more becomes wind onshore As 2035. through subsidies to require continues PV solar applications, niche limited of However, outside reductions. cost continued to due 2035, through PV solar for significantly fall They price. carbon a of of themg Subsidies t Billion dollars (2011) TWh 6 00 1 00 2 00 3 00 4 00 5 00 100 150 200 250 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01 05 0022 002035 2030 2025 2020 2015 2011
7.12 7.11 oing to biodiesel. In the United States, $8
o biofuels were alsothehighest intheEuropean Union,at $11 | 07 09 0121 22 0523 2035 2030 2025 2020 2015 2011 2009 2007
Renewable energy outlook energy Renewable
⊳ ⊳
and biofuelsbyregionintheNewPoliciesScenario Global subsidiestorenewables-basedelectricitygeneration generation bytypeintheNewPoliciesScenario Subsidised andunsubsidisedrenewables-basedelectricity
billion, follow ed by the United States at $21
.1. Offshor 7.11). billion in2011wenbillion wn, S ad marine and CSP wind, e
Unsubsidised: Subsidised billion (Figure t to biofuels, mainly Bioenerg Other Solar PV Wind onshor Bioenerg Other Solar PV Wind onshor European Union United States Chin Indi Rest ofworld
billion, thebulk a a : y y e e
7.12). 18/10/2012 15:49:54 235
11 16 12 10 14 13 17 15 18 2 5 8 1 3 6 4 7 9 211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 236 © OECD/IEA, 2012 Figure to $1.0 account they that close large amounts 2020 after for such are deployed they in overtime, most costs renewables unit for lower Despite 2015. after built capacity the forall Outlook capacity built after 2020, with a part of the cost $1.6 being paid beyond the time horizon of this additional an receives – targets current to due 236 storage, demandresponse andsmartgrids.Smartgridsemploy advanced technologies to electricity interconnections, increasing including system, electricity the of variability the Several options areexist developed or being that can contribute betterto management of become increasingly important astheirshare ofoverall capacity expands. variability oftheseandother renewable energy sources to ensure securityofsupplywill significantly in a matter of hours in a manner that is difficult to predict. Handling the natural short-termweatherchangesin cloud and wind conditions,coverconditions as change can to sensitive more is power solar and wind of However, availability inflows. water the low often with capacity restrictions – for example, hydropower can be limited indry years with and volatility weather-relateddemand with deal to had always have suppliers Electricity Integration ofvariablerenewables into theelectricity system Note: Generation refers to allsubsidised renewables-based electricity generation (excluding large hydro). payments until the early 2030s (Figure Of this, the capacity installed up to 2011 receives almost $1.0 Subsidies to renewables-based electricity amount to atotal of$3.5 in India,reaching about$26 subsidies for China, In $58billion. renewables stabilise at above $35 at peaking 2030, around until increase they States, as commitments to supporthighercost capacity recently installed expire. IntheUnited plateau ofaround $70 In the New Policies Scenario, subsidies to renewable energy in the European Union reach a Billion dollars (2011) 20 10 12 14 16 18 20 40 60 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01 05 00 0523 2035 2030 2025 2020 2015 2011
trillion insubsidies from 2020t
7.13
$960 billio ⊳
the NewPoliciesScenario Subsidy lock-inofrenewables-basedelectricitygenerationin
billion inthe2020s, bef n
$785 billion
billion by theendof pr
billion duringthe lat World EnergyOutlook 2012
$800 billion o 2035. 7.13). The ore declining to abouthalfthat level by 2035, capacity added through to 2020 – mostly
$1 e 2020s, whilethey keep increasing rlin Te r The trillion. ojection period. 015 billion
trillion, con
|
trillion over 2012-2035.
Global Energy Trends midr s ad for paid is emainder tinuing to receive Up to201 2012 2016 2021 -2 -2 -2 01 02 03 5 0 5 1 18/10/2012 15:49:55
211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 237 © OECD/IEA, 2012 Chapter 7 on the of order and are demand of peak per times at flexible needed fromadditional capacity from $6-$25 typically costs arise costs Adequacy total generation. electricity renewable variable megawatt-hour of (MWh) with integration, grid and balancing adequacy, categories: broad three into grouped be can renewables integrating variable of costs The demand andsolarPV output. electricity peak between correlation good is there where Japan, and India in higher is it However,peak.zero atits or is minimal demand is electricity output wherePVwhen solar countries in installed PV solar of because largely Union, European the in low relatively is (Figure terms ofinstalled capacity), taken together, ranges between 5-20%depending ontheregion capacity credit ofwindandsolarPV (the two largest variable renewable technologies in the renewable on energy source typically andis lower depends thantheaverage power output.In2035, theaverage a system, of adequacy the to contribution their credit, measuring capacity The credit). capacity (its demand peak of times during on relied be can annual power outputofavariable renewable technology andthe level ofitsoutputthat The additional flexible capacity needed is calculated as the difference between the average beneficial, mutually be can providing low-carbon electricity while maintaining the securityofelectricity systems. two the cases, some in gas with compete may renewables sector decarbonises, theshares ofbothrenewables andgas are expected to grow. While 2035. InallWEO 300 at Scenario Policies New the in needs capacity flexible global additional We estimate the adequacy. system to ensure be needed will capacity additional deployed, are renewables variable of amounts larger As renewables. variable of some expansion to accommodate further systems power most within flexibility adequate is Today, there power plant designscan alsoprovide considerable operational flexibility. often make gas-fired power plants the next best choice for flexible capacity. New coal-fired output adjustable rapidly and capacities available of range wide limiting factors. a costs, investment are Low and geography costs but attributes, these of combination best the rapidly and operate at partial levels of output. Reservoir-based hydropower generally offers with readily is importantcapacity, for flexible capacity flexible to be able to start up scale, quickly, ramp up to a maximum larger output on controllable electricity generation, deployed will be required to are accommodate variable renewables. measures It these Until allow for better utilisation of variable renewable energy sources. peak also would hours, of or minutes times of periods over during techniques, forecasting Improved availabledemand. be to hours) of periods over (typically periods demand over shortperiods(minutes to hours), aswell asallowing electricity produced duringlow help accommodate also can variable renewables. Electricity storage technologies can help smooth the supplyofenergy ofload, distribution better a achieve to demand end-user efficient use of remotely located renewable resources. Demand more a response for measures, allowing areas, shifting large spanning grids of integration the facilitate can user,and generation end- fromthe the electricity point to transmissionof the manage and monitor
7.14), against thea
|
Renewable energy outlook energy Renewable scenarios, natural gas dominates new flexible capacity. As the electricity capacity.flexible the new dominates As naturalgas scenarios, verage power outputof24%theircapacity. The capacity value
GW b GW 18/10/2012 15:49:55 237 y 11 16 12 10 14 13 17 15 18 2 5 8 1 3 6 4 7 9 211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 238 © OECD/IEA, 2012 coal, oilorgas. reduce CO Heat produced from renewable sources, as in wood pellet or solar heat boilers for example, regions, therefore its contribution to CO to contribution its thereforeregions, two-thirdsabout over projectionthe share its period, of total generation many in declines by increases generation hydropower Although generation. wind increased from coming some 10%ofthelevel ofemissionsreached in2035, withmore than40%ofthesavings emissions inthepower sector by 3.6Gtin2035(Figure 238 CO total Scenario, Policies New the In 2011). (IPCC, strategy mitigation change climate any veryincluding low ornogreenhouse-gas emissions, makingthem akey component in technologies, energy renewable of deployment the with associated are benefits Several Benefits of renewables at times ofpeakdemand. Note: Capacitycredit isthe amount ofcapacity that contributes to system adequacy, i.e. can berelied upon Figure transmission anddistribution grids. transmission for provision extensions for renewables located including far from demand centres and generation, reinforcements of existing renewables variable of $2-$13/MWh additional an add costs integration Grid $1-$7/MWh. from range and basis short-term a on demand and supply match to services additional cover costs Balancing $3-$5/MWh. supplied using the electricity generation mix of 2010, renewables help to reduce CO to reduce help renewables of 2010, mix generation electricity the using supplied generated ifthe growing electricity demandoftheNew Policies Scenario were to be be would that emissions to the Relative fuels. fossil of combustion the from generation power displaces it when emissions reduces generation renewables-basedsector, power
10 20 30 40 GW50 2 savings across allsectors from renewables are 4.1 0 0 0 0 0 0
7.14 2 United
States 2010 emissions by tonnes 150million in2035by displacingheat from boilers using
2020 ⊳ 2035 system adequacyintheNewPoliciesScenario Installed windandsolarPVcapacitytheircontributionto European European
Union 2010 2020 2035 World EnergyOutlook 2012 2010 China 2
savings ismore limited thanother renewables. 2020 2035
2010 Indi
a 2020 gigat
7.15). Thesesavings repr 2035 onnes (Gt)in2035.Inthe 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
|
Global Energy Trends (right axis installed capacity Share oftotal Capacity credit system adequacy contribung to Capacity not ) esent
18/10/2012 15:49:55 2
211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 239 © OECD/IEA, 2012 a number of environmental problems, such as acid rain and ground-level ozone formation. Chapter 7 are sulphurdioxide (SO pollutants these of important most the of Two health. human on impact negative a have The use offossil fuelsgives rise to several pollutants that worsen ambient air qualityand sector. sector, renewables mainlyreduce the need to importgas orcoal, asoiluseislimited inthis electricity volatility. the price In reduce and prices gas and oil on pressuredownward put indirectly could of renewables use greater Moreover, significantly. effects these reduce to potential the have Biofuels deficit. a trade to contribute often and countries importing many in (GDP) product domestic gross of percentage significant fairly a represent which bills, import reduces directly and imported security energy national greaterit displaces to contributes it fuels, When internationally). traded some proportion is bioenergy (although other and of energy biofuels of source domestic a largely is energy Renewable be minimisedoravoided iftheright policies are established andenforced. however, biofuels, of can impacts negative deforestation. The to contributing and supply food with competing for criticised been also have Biofuels 2011a). (IEA, emissions reduce to potential highest the have biofuels advanced and ethanol Sugarcane years. recent in (Boxchanges land-use indirect but only so long as their production does not result in increases in emissions from direct or estimated 0.4 an by sectortransport the in oil from emissions reduce Biofuels total final = TFC energy. marine and geothermal power, consumption. solar concentrating includes Other Notes: and fuels technologies andnochange inthe efficiency ofthermal of generating plants after2010. mix the in change no there were Scenario Policies New the in generation electricity of level * Theemissionssavings compared withthe emissions that would have been generated for theprojected Figure but also from diesel fuel, while NO Gt -4.2 -3.6 -3.0 -2.4 -1.8 -1.2 -0.6 0 00 0522 22 002035 2030 2025 2020 2015 2010
7.15
|
Renewable energy outlook energy Renewable
⊳
to 2010fuelmix*intheNewPoliciesScenario CO 2 emissionssavingsfromgreateruseofrenewables,relative 2 ) andnitrogen oxides (NO
7.3). This aspect This 7.3). x come from burning all types of fossil fuels. They cause of biofuels has come under close scrutinyclose under come has biofuels of x ); SO 2 coming mainly from burning coal Other TFC: Power: Transport: Renewables Biofuel Other Solar PV Wind Bioenerg Hydro
Gt in 2035, in Gt s y 18/10/2012 15:49:55 239
11 16 12 10 14 13 17 15 18 2 5 8 1 3 6 4 7 9 211-240_Chapitre 7_weo_15.indd 240 © OECD/IEA, 2012 240 to those offossil fuel-based andnuclearpower plants. Bioenergy alsorequires water to grow the feedstocks. 10. Bioenergy, concentrating solar and geothermal power plants use water for cooling purposes, at levels close Box quality and air of Integration renewable energy policies can bemore effective OECD). thanseparate actions. the in cities some in (and countries non-OECD in cities large several in problem major a is pollution Air regional. and local is impact Their amounts for cleaning purposes (see Chapter require generation electricity Solar PV andwindpower donotusewater to produce electricity andrequire onlysmall for technologies energy significantly less water for their operation renewable than fossil fuel-based and nuclear power plants. of types Several plants. power thermal for water cooling of discharge the by caused be may that contamination and pollution thermal avoids also power wind and PV solar of greater.Use even are use in differenceswater the consideration, into taken is uranium and fuels fossil extraction of level regarding ofthese theimpact findingsonfuture biofuels policy. reduced oilimport dependence. No decision has been taken yet at the European Union notably biofuels, of benefits other alongside policies, biofuels formulating in account 2010). These new findings have made it clear that CEPII, ILUC and emissions need (IFPRI to lowest be taken the into of some biodiesel and potential savings highest the has greenhouse-gas the reduce significantly savings potential of biofuels or even lead to increased can emissions. Sugar-based ethanol ILUC that shown have Studies areas. other to production forest or agricultural previous displaces area one in biofuels for cropsgrowing when occur may (ILUC) changes land-use Indirect biofuels. produce to changes occurwhen, for example, forests andgrasslands are converted to cropland impact of indirect land use changes on emission savings from biofuels. Direct land-use 2017 and to 60%in2018.Italsomandated the European Commissionto review the in 50% to rising and 35% at starting biofuels, from savings emissions greenhouse-gas biofuels, taking into account direct land-use changes, andestablished thresholds for for criteria sustainability set directive The biofuels. of use increased through met be 10% of that requires energy transport demandin2020come from renewable renewable sources, atarget largely expected to on directive 2009 Union’s European The
7.3
⊳
Indirect land-usechangeandtheEuropeanUnion’sbiofuelspolicy World EnergyOutlook 2012
17). 10 If the significant use of water during the
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Global Energy Trends 18/10/2012 15:49:55 © OECD/IEA, 2012 Frankfurt School UNEP Collaborating Centre and Bloomberg New Energy Finance Finance Energy New Bloomberg and Centre Collaborating (2012), UNEP School Frankfurt IEA (International Energy Agency) (2011a), (2011a), Agency) Energy (International IEA F.O.(2012), Licht Germany. Frankfurt, Management, (2011), Union) (European EU Brussels. EC, Regions, the of Committee the and Committee Social and Economic European the Council, the Parliament, European the to Commission (2011), Commission) (European EC outlook energy Renewable 7: Chapter References Council, London. Council, (2010), Council) Energy (World WEC Annual, (2011), of USDA States Agriculture) (United Department (2010), Programme) Environment Nations (United UNEP Report Status Global (2012), Century) 21st the for Network Policy Energy (Renewable REN21 3176-3199. pp. Amsterdam, Elsevier, 16, of Analysis An - Factors”, Trade Market and Biofuel Policies, Solid Volumes, International in “Developments (2012), P. Lamers, Mitigation Change Climate and Sources Energy (2011), Change) Climate on Panel (2012), (Intergovernmental IPCC Analysis) Systems Applied for Assessment Institute (International IIASA for Mandate Center Biofuels EU the of Study (2010), Impact French Economy) (The World the CEPII on and Studies and Institute) Research Research Policy Food (International IFPRI (2012), − (2011b), − Paris. OECD/IEA, Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment Energy Renewable in Trends Global GAIN Report No. 12044, USDA, Washington, DC. Washington, USDA, 12044, No. Report GAIN Renewable Energy Medium-Term Market Report 2012 Report Market Medium-Term Energy Renewable Solar Energy Perspectives Energy Solar , IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria. Laxenburg, IIASA, , World Ethanol & Biofuels Report Biofuels & Ethanol World , REN21 Secretariat, Paris. Secretariat, REN21 , Renewables Make the Difference, Difference, the Make Renewables , OECD/IEA, Paris. OECD/IEA, , nry oda 2050 Roadmap Energy 00 uvy f nry Resources, Energy of Survey 2010 Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews Energy Sustainable and Renewable , European Commission, Brussels. Commission, European , Technology Roadmap, Biofuels for Transport for Biofuels Roadmap, Technology , IPCC, Geneva. IPCC, , Chapter 7 , F.O.London. , Licht, People’s Republic of China, Biofuels People’s of Republic Biofuels China, , Frankfurt School of Finance and and Finance of School Frankfurt , Africa Water Atlas Africa Global Trade and Environmental Environmental and Trade Global
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Renewable energy , Communication from the the from Communication , , OECD/IEA, Paris. OECD/IEA, , EU, Brussels. EU, Renewables 2012 2012 Renewables , , UNEP, Nairobi. World Energy Energy World Global Energy Energy Global outlook , Vol. , ,