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Forecasting for the Future: New Science For Forecasting for the Future: New science for improved weather, water, ocean and climate services - Abstracts of the Bureau of Meteorology Annual R&D Workshop, 25 November to 28 November 2019, Melbourne, Australia Diana Greenslade, Leon Majewski, Linden Ashcroft, Jaclyn Brown, Christine Chung, Chantal Donnelly, Justin Freeman, Deryn Griffiths, Val Jemmeson and Ian Smith (editors) November 2019 Bureau Research Report - 040 FORECASTING FOR THE FUTURE - ABSTRACTS OF THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY R&D ANNUAL WORKSHOP FORECASTING FOR THE FUTURE - ABSTRACTS OF THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY R&D ANNUAL WORKSHOP Forecasting for the Future: New science for improved weather, water, ocean and climate services - Abstracts of the Bureau of Meteorology Annual R&D Workshop, 25 November to 28 November 2019, Melbourne, Australia Diana Greenslade, Leon Majewski, Linden Ashcroft, Jaclyn Brown, Christine Chung, Chantal Donnelly, Justin Freeman, Deryn Griffiths, Val Jemmeson and Ian Smith (editors) Bureau Research Report No. 040 November 2019 National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry Author: Bureau of Meteorology Annual R&D Workshop, Forecasting for the Future: New science for improved weather, water, ocean and climate services (2019: Melbourne, Victoria) Title: Forecasting for the Future: New science for improved weather, water, ocean and climate services - Abstracts of the Bureau of Meteorology Annual R&D Workshop, 25 November to 28 November 2019, Melbourne, Australia ISBN: 978-1-925738-10-0 (E-Book) Series: Bureau Research Report – 040 FORECASTING FOR THE FUTURE - ABSTRACTS OF THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY R&D ANNUAL WORKSHOP Enquiries should be addressed to: Diana Greenslade Bureau of Meteorology GPO Box 1289, Melbourne Victoria 3001, Australia [email protected] Workshop Sponsors We would like to acknowledge and thank the following sponsors for their participation in this conference Copyright and Disclaimer © 2019 Bureau of Meteorology. To the extent permitted by law, all rights are reserved and no part of this publication covered by copyright may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means except with the written permission of the Bureau of Meteorology. The Bureau of Meteorology advise that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The reader is advised and needs to be aware that such information may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance or actions must therefore be made on that information without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To the extent permitted by law and the Bureau of Meteorology (including each of its employees and consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole) and any information or material contained in it. FORECASTING FOR THE FUTURE - ABSTRACTS OF THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY R&D ANNUAL WORKSHOP TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword .............................................................................................................................. 1 Seamless Model Development For Future Weather And Climate Services ............................. 3 Sean Milton The Benefits Of Increased Model Resolution, Coupling And Improved Physics To Forecast Skill: A Case Study In Northern Queensland ........................................................................... 4 Matthew Hawcroft, Sean Milton, Tim Cowan, Sally Lavender and Alison Stirling On The Resonances And Teleconnections Of The North Atlantic And Madden-Julian Oscillations ............................................................................................................................ 5 Gilbert Brunet, Yosvany Martinez, Hai Lin and Natacha Bernier Towards Seamless National Water Services – Past To Future ................................................. 6 Chantal Donnelly, Andrew Frost, Julien Lerat, Louise Wilson and Wendy Sharples Offshore Industry Future Needs ............................................................................................ 7 Jan Flynn Rainfall Radar And Hydrology ................................................................................................ 7 Urs Baeumer Using Bureau Of Meteorology Services To Predict Bushfire: An End-User Perspective ........... 8 Tim Wells Application Of Climate Data And Knowledge To The Electricity Sector ................................... 8 Ben Jones Water Security In The Murray Darling Basin: The Role Of Climate Change ............................. 8 Rob Vertessy What We've Learned From Observing Antarctic Weather And Climate .................................. 9 Scott Carpentier, Jan Lieser, Phil Reid, Andrew Klekociuk, Ben Galton Fenzi and Tas Van Omen Importance Of Metrology - Why It Matters In A Non-Normal World .................................... 10 Jane Warne Farmers’ Use Of Weather And Forecast Information In The Western Australian Wheatbelt . 11 Marit Kragt and Myrtille Lacoste Analysis Ready Data Validation And The Wonderful World Of Drones ................................. 12 Mark Broomhall, Guy Byrne, Andrew Walsh And Medhavy Thankappan Validation Of Cloud Properties Derived From Himawari-8 Geostationary Satellite: Advancement And Challenges ............................................................................................. 13 Yi Huang, Steven T. Siems, Michael J. Manton, Alain Protat, Leon Majewski and Hanh Nguyen Shasta For Modelling, Simulation, Analytics And AI For Weather And Climate ..................... 14 Ilene Carpenter To Be Confirmed .................................................................................................................. 14 Ben Evans FORECASTING FOR THE FUTURE - ABSTRACTS OF THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY R&D ANNUAL WORKSHOP Life In A Post Exascale World ............................................................................................... 15 Wendy Sharples, Klaus Görgen and Chantal Donnelly Upcoming HPC Upgrade And HPC Services Roadmap ........................................................... 16 Bruce Arthur Remote Sensing And Data Assimilation For The Characterization Of The Terrestrial Water Cycle ................................................................................................................................... 17 Sujay Kumar Steps: Radar Rainfall Nowcasts For Decision Support In An Age Of Uncertainty ................... 18 Alan Seed Lightning Nowcasting At Weatherzone - A Current And Future Perspective ......................... 18 Rashmi Mittal Pyrocumulonimbus Firepower Threshold ............................................................................ 19 Kevin Tory, Jeffrey Kepert, David Wilke and Zachary Berry-Porter Present And Future Of Ocean Forecast In New Zealand — New Perspective Under The Moana Project ................................................................................................................................ 20 Joao De Souza Developments In ACCESS-C And CE: A Service Focussed Perspective .................................... 21 Gary Dietachmayer for the C3/CE3 Project Team Developments For Global Ocean Sea-Ice And Sub-Mesoscale Regional Ocean Forecasting .. 22 Gary Brassington, Pavel Sakov, Prasanth Divakaran, Justin Freeman, Mirko Velic, Helen Beggs, Peter Oke, Paul Sandery, Matt Chamberlain, Russel Fiedler, Andy Hogg, Andrew Kiss and Petra Heil Research And Operational Advances In Short Range Hydrological Forecasting In Australia .. 23 Aynul Kabir, Prasantha Hapuarachchi, Mohammed Hasan, Sophie Zhang, Jayaratne Liyanage, Patrick Sunter, Nikeeth Ramanathan, Fatemeh Mekanik, Mohammed Bari, Narendra Tuteja, Daehyok Shin, David Robertson, Durga Shrestha and James Bennett Developments In AUSWAVE ................................................................................................ 24 Stefan Zieger and Diana Greenslade The National Blend Of Models: A Statistically Post-Processed Multi-Model Ensemble ........ 25 Jeffrey Craven Guidance Post Processing Present And Future ..................................................................... 26 Anja Schubert, Gary Weymouth, Thomas Gale, Tim Hume, James Canvin and Andrew Charles IMPROVER: A New Probabilistic Guidance Post-Processing System ..................................... 27 Gary Weymouth and Thomas Gale Automating The Warning Process At Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) – Lessons Learned ..... 28 Hans-Joachim Koppert and Franz-Josef Molé A Streamlined Forecast Process Utilizing Forecastbuilder And The Associated Culture Change ............................................................................................................................................ 29 Andrew Just To What Extent Can We Automate Routine Forecast Production? ....................................... 30 Michael Foley, Deryn Griffiths, Tom Pagano and Nick Loveday FORECASTING FOR THE FUTURE - ABSTRACTS OF THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY R&D ANNUAL WORKSHOP Value-Adding By Operational Meteorologists ...................................................................... 31 Jenny Sturrock Improving Client Decision Making ....................................................................................... 32 James Crow And Matthew Boterhoven Risk Communication ............................................................................................................ 33 Matalena Tofa, Melanie Taylor,
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