Chin. Geogra. Sci. 2020 Vol. 30 No. 2 pp. 340–351 Springer Science Press https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-020-1105-4 www.springerlink.com/content/1002-0063

The Evolution of Regional Economic Resilience in the Old Industrial Bases in : A Case Study of Province, China

LI Liangang1, ZHANG Pingyu2, 3, LO Kevin4, LIU Wenxin2, LI Jing2 (1. College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, 250358, China; 2. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 130102, China; 3. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100049, China; 4. Department of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong 999077, China)

Abstract: The economic transformation of the old industrial bases is a key research topic among geographers in China. In this paper, we propose that the concept of regional economic resilience (RER) has unique theoretical value in analyzing the economic transformation of the old industrial bases. We constructed an analytical framework and an index system and applied the conceptual tools to study the evolution of RER in the old industrial base of Liaoning Province in China, which is currently subjected to not only sudden shocks but ‘slow burn’—longer term processes of change that may nevertheless affect the regional economy. There are four main findings: first, the evolution of RER in Liaoning can be divided into four stages from 2000 to 2015. Liaoning is currently in its conservation-release period, and the next stage will be a release-reorganization period. Second, the RER of the majority of the studied cities is lower than the average value for Liaoning, and this is mainly attributed to the relatively weak vulnerability-resistance and adaptability-transformation capacity of these cities. Third, the RER levels of the 14 cities in Liaoning differ significantly. At the first level is and , at the second level is and , and the third level comprises the remaining cities. Fourth, regional economic resilience is mainly determined by vulnerability-resistance, which indirectly reflects Liaoning’s lack of adaptability-transformation capacity, and the ability of the region to renew or create a new development path is weak. Keywords: regional economic resilience (RER); evolutionary process; old industrial bases; Liaoning Province, China

Citation: LI Liangang, ZHANG Pingyu, LO Kevin, LIU Wenxin, LI Jing, 2020. The Evolution of Regional Economic Resilience in the Old Industrial Bases in China: A Case Study of Liaoning Province, China. Chinese Geographical Science, 30(2): 340–351. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769- 020-1105-4

1 Introduction such variations in regional responses to shocks (Simmie and Martin, 2010; Fingleton et al., 2012; Eraydin, Frequent recession shocks have profoundly affected 2016). regional economic development (Simmie and Martin, Reggiani et al. (2002) were the first to suggest that 2010; Martin, 2012; Fingleton et al., 2012; Doran and resilience may be a key element in explaining these dif- Fingleton, 2016). Some regions actively respond to the ferences. The concept of resilience was originally de- shocks and restore their development pathway, while veloped in physics and engineering to indicate the capa- others affected by shocks instead enter recessionary tra- bility of a system to restore to its original state after ex- jectories (Simmie and Martin, 2010; Martin, 2012). A periencing disturbance (Martin, 2012; Reggiani, 2013). considerable body of research has attempted to explain Holling (1973) first introduced resilience to ecology, in

Received date: 2019-02-10; accepted date: 2019-06-08 Foundation item: Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41571152, 41771179) Corresponding author: ZHANG Pingyu. E-mail: [email protected] © Science Press, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, CAS and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Na- ture 2020 LI Liangang et al. The Evolution of Regional Economic Resilience in the Old Industrial Bases in China: A Case Study… 341 particular in economic geography, and it was typically transformation. referred to as regional economic resilience (RER) (Mar- As one of the old traditional industrial bases in China, tin and Sunley, 2015; Eraydin, 2016; Martin et al., 2016; Liaoning has experienced a serious economic downturn Sun and Sun, 2017). During this interdisciplinary jour- as a result of resource depletion, the global financial ney, the concept has changed significantly. Most nota- crisis, and the changes in China’s economic develop- bly, both engineering resilience and ecological resilience ment pathway in recent years, which have attracted assume that a system has equilibrium and stability widespread attention from academic circles, political (Holling, 1973; Martin and Sunley, 2015). However, circles, and society. It is urgent to improve the ability of equilibrium does not exist in the regional economy and Liaoning to cope with shocks and to promote its trans- other systems, and therefore the concept of evolution formation in order to restore its economic development was applied to resilience (Martin, 2012; Boschma, trajectory. By taking the 14 cities in Liaoning from 2000 2015). Evolutionary resilience refers to the ability of a to 2015 as the research objects, this paper constructed a system to change, adapt, and transform to cope with RER analytical framework and a comprehensive indi- external pressures in a long-term evolutionary process cator system to reflect RER changes in Liaoning. At the (Boschma, 2015). same time, based on the adaptive cycle model, the RER The conceptualization of disturbance is central to evolutionary stages of Liaoning are distinguished to RER. Pendall et al. (2010) suggest that there are two identify characteristics of RER and predict the next main types of shocks: one is external abrupt shocks stage in the process, thereby allowing for countermea- (such as economic crises, business failures, etc.), where sures to be proposed to facilitate Liaoning’s economic the shock is short and sudden. The other one is a transformation. long-term slow burn (such as climate change, industrial recession, resources depletion, etc.), and this kind of 2 Materials and Methods shock is characterized by a lengthy economic develop- ment process and may not be easy to detect, but it has a 2.1 Study area definitive effect on the development of the economy. Liaoning Province has 14 prefecture-level cities (Fig. Research on RER tends to focus on external abrupt 1), which are all old industrial cities. Liaoning Prov- shocks rather than slow burns (Cai et al., 2012; Modica ince has developed a robust industrial system since the and Reggiani, 2015; Hu and Hassink, 2017; Di Caro, establishment of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 2017). This is, however, problematic as the regional 1949. The economy of Liaoning relies on traditional indus- economic system is just as likely to be affected by slow tries such as extractive industries and petrochemicals. burns during long-term evolution (Simmie and Martin, 2010; Fingleton et al., 2012). Therefore, the theory of RER would gain analytical prowess by considering the resilience process against the backdrop of long-term slow burns. For many reasons, the old industrial bases are more susceptible to slow burns, such as resource depletion, and abrupt shocks, such as financial crises, and they are more likely to fall into economic recession (Martin, 2012; Hu and Hassink, 2017; Tan et al., 2017b; Guan et al., 2018). However, improving the ability of the old industrial bases to transform in response to shocks and economically recover is not well understood. Therefore, studying the RER of the old industrial bases has theo- retical and practical significance by identifying the characteristics of each development stage and more ac- curately predicting future trends, allowing for economic Fig. 1 Spatial distribution of cities in Liaoning Province, China 342 Chinese Geographical Science 2020 Vol. 30 No. 2

The industrial structure of Liaoning Province has been institutional mechanisms. Adaptability-transformation dominated by the secondary industry (Zhao, 2005; mainly reflects the ability of a regional system to restore Zhang, 2008). At the same time, the secondary industry its development path by adjusting its structure, organiza- is dominated by heavy industry (Zhang, 2008; Bao et tion, etc. and adapt to the changes caused by slow burns, al., 2014; Jin et al., 2016), and the heavy industry’s GDP or to realize a ‘path-breakthrough’, thus transforming has long accounted for more than 70% of total industry. and developing the regional economy. Adaptability- In addition, Liaoning’s old industrial base is made up of transformation is determined by the degree of adaptation multiple resource-based cities, and the proportion of and the capability of the learning transformation. Adapta- state-owned enterprises is large (Zhang, 2008), which in bility-transformation is mainly influenced by regional turn has led to the formation of a rigid and single indus- economic structures, policy support, foreign capital utili- trial structure in Liaoning. zation, technological innovation capacity, and the financial environment. 2.2 RER analysis framework and indicator system The regional economic system has long been con- 2.2.1 RER analysis framework under slow burns fronted with slow burns that are difficult to detect, and We define RER as the ability of a regional economic sys- RER is subject to constant change. The processes of tem to mitigate the impact of shocks and its ability to vulnerability-resistance and adaptability-transformation adapt to the transition to quickly resume it original de- exist simultaneously and evolve with the development velopment path, or shift to a better development path of regional systems. Consequently, the ability of a re- (Martin, 2012; Martin and Sunley, 2015; Martin et al., gion to cope with such shocks cannot be seen simply 2016; Li et al., 2019). Based on this definition, we con- over a short period. A long-term view is needed. The structed an RER conceptual model based on a number of adaptive cycle model was developed to understand the slow burn scenarios (Fig. 2). The evolutionary process of long-term evolution of a region’s resilience when af- RER includes two dimensions: vulnerability-resistance fected by internal and external disturbances. The adap- mainly refers to the economic system’s resistance to dis- tive cycle model provides a conceptual framework for turbance. It is determined by the likelihood of slow burns understanding RER from an evolutionary perspective by occurring in the region and the region’s resistance to these defining the evolutionary stages of RER and clarifying slow burns. Vulnerability-resistance is mainly determined the relationship between the characteristics of regional by factors such as regional structural characteristics, economic development at each stage and level of resil- economic openness, labor conditions, infrastructure, and ience (Hu, 2012).

Fig. 2 A conceptual model of regional economic resilience (RER) LI Liangang et al. The Evolution of Regional Economic Resilience in the Old Industrial Bases in China: A Case Study… 343

Based on the adaptive cycle model by Gunderson and Liaoning is an old industrial base in China, and regional Holling (2002) and Simmie and Martin (2010), we di- development has long relied on traditional industrial sec- vided the regional economic evolutionary process into tors, which may have a negative impact on RER. four stages: reorganization, exploitation, conservation, It is generally believed that diversified economic struc- and release (Fig. 3). The characteristics of each stage tures can disperse the impacts of shocks and act as a can be demonstrated in three dimensions. The first one ‘Shock Absorber’, and such regions are less affected by is Potential, which refers to the capital accumulated in shocks or are more likely to recover from shocks (Martin, the regional economic system, including competitive- 2012; Boschma, 2015). On the other hand, regions with ness, labor force, and system management. The second high economic specialization are highly sensitive to shocks one is Connectedness. It refers to the degree of inter- (Holm and Østergaard, 2015; Mazzola et al., 2018), and connection between various components within the sys- this may limit the ability of a region to evolve to a new tem. The third one is Resilience, which refers to the development path. When the regionally specialized indus- creation of a path to maintain regional economic devel- tries are affected by shocks, the region is prone to entering opment and structural adjustment capacity. a long-term recessionary track. The development of 2.2.2 Indicator system composition Liaoning has depended on heavy industry for a long time, Existing research on regional economic resilience has and consequently the level of economic specialization is identified different compositions and determinants of quite high, which may limit its RER. The ability of the RER (Martin and Sunley, 2015). Simmie and Martin region to cope with slow burns, such as changes in the (2010) and Martin et al. (2016) suggest that the indus- market environment and development, mode, is weak, and trial structure, technical level, financial environment, the region is more likely to enter recession. labor market, government management, etc. all affect When impacts occur, the regions with a good labor the performance of the regional economic system in the market can attract high-quality talent from other regions, face of shocks. The paper considers the industrial struc- promoting their further development. High unemploy- ture, economic structure diversity, labor market, finan- ment rates will limit the ability of regional economic cial environment, policy support, innovation ability and systems to deal with shocks (Sagan and Masik, 2014; economic development level to reflect the RER. Martin and Sunley, 2015). In short, the labor market Industrial structure is considered a key factor affecting significantly affects RER. In Liaoning, a large bulk of RER (Li et al., 2019). Some studies find that the regions the labor force is concentrated in the industrial sector. dominated by manufacturing and construction industries When the industrial sector is affected by shocks, unem- show low economic resilience (Davies, 2011; Angulo et al., ployment follows, which may lead to the transfer of 2018). The secondary sector is typically restricted by re- some high-quality talent to areas with better economic sources and is closely related to the market environment. prospects, thus limiting the labor force in the region. In When resources are exhausted or external market demand recent years, the problem of population outflow in is reduced, the regional economy will rapidly decline (Li et has become more and more serious al., 2019). The excessive development of the secondary (Zhao and Liu, 2018). The lack of an adequate labor sector may therefore limit regional economic resilience. force supporting regional development will limit RER.

Fig. 3 The regional economic resilience process based on the adaptive cycle 344 Chinese Geographical Science 2020 Vol. 30 No. 2

A good financial environment will not only attract a government arrangements will promote the long-term large amount of capital but will also attract high-end development of regional economies and RER. enterprises. They can promote technology exchange and Innovation capacity is an important component of a spillover and enhance the adaptability of regional eco- regional economic system’s ability to deal with distur- nomic systems to shocks (Martin and Sunley, 2015; Tan bances. The adjustment adaptability of a region to et al., 2017a; Di Caro, 2017). Regions with good finan- long-term slow burns is mainly determined by the po- cial environments have a higher level of openness, tential for innovation. Regions with high innovation which can attract foreign capital and advanced technol- levels have strong adaptability and can quickly recover ogy to further facilitate development in the region. In or achieve path breakthroughs (Martin and Sunley, the face of shocks, the region can adjust and transform 2015; Tan et al., 2017a). with the help of external forces, thus enhancing RER. RER is also related to economic development Positive regional policies can support the develop- (Petrakos and Psycharis, 2016), and it is generally be- ment of enterprises, attract high-quality talent, and pro- lieved that regions with a stronger economy have a mote technological innovation to help regions respond stronger ability to cope with shocks. positively to the impact of shocks (Sagan and Masik, Based on the conceptual model of RER and related 2014; Giannakis and Bruggeman, 2017). The develop- studies above, and considering the availability and ment of the region is inseparable from policy, but the comparability of data, the paper constructs an indicator current research on RER underplays the role govern- system with 20 indicators (Table 1). Each dimension of ment can play in shaping RER. Liaoning’s old industrial RER (i.e., vulnerability-resistance and adaptability- base is an area that has been deeply affected by China’s transformation) is composed of 10 indicators. Vulner- planned economy, and its economic development is still ability-resistance includes industrial structure, labor mar- greatly influenced by government policies. Appropriate ket, openness, government support, and the proportion of

Table 1 The indicator system of RER Action direc- Target level System level Indicator level tion Proportion of secondary industries included in GDP (%) – Krugman Specialization Index – Unemployment rate (%) – Proportion of employees of state-owned and collective-owned units (%) – The proportion of urban residents’ income and rural residents’ income (%) – Vulnerability-resistance Foreign trade degree of dependence (%) + Per capita GDP (yuan (RMB) + Per capita road area (m2) + Population density (person/km2) + Ratio of public finance expenditure and GDP (%) + Regional economic resilience Proportion of tertiary industries included in GDP (%) + Ratio of financial institution deposit balance and GDP (%) + Growth rate of GDP (%) + Ratio of investment in fixed assets and GDP (%) + Financial self-sufficiency rate (%) + Adaptability-transformation Entropy Index + Ratio of foreign direct investment and GDP (%) + Proportion of persons employed in scientific research, technical services, and geo- + logical prospecting (%) Ratio of public finance science and technology expenditure and GDP (%) + Number of students in higher education (person) +

LI Liangang et al. The Evolution of Regional Economic Resilience in the Old Industrial Bases in China: A Case Study… 345

state-owned capital, whereas adaptability-transformation vulnerability-resistance (adaptability-transformation) of mainly includes economic structure, innovation level, the ith region. scientific research input level, financial environment, (3) The RER is calculated. This paper argues that VR economic development, and government control. The and AT have an equal effect on RER, so the RER for- specialization index and diversification index are calcu- mula is as follows: lated by using the employment rate in industries of each RER=+ VR AT (2) city according to the Krugman Specialization Index and iii

Entropy Index, respectively. The foreign trade degree of RERi is the RER of the ith region, VRi is the vulnerabil- dependence (FTD) is reflected by the proportion of total ity-resistance of the ith region, ATi is the adaptabil- import and export volume in GDP, and the financial ity-transformation of the ith region. self-sufficiency rate is calculated by public finance in- come and public finance expenditure. 3 Results The study period was defined as spanning 2000 to 2015 because of the lack of data before 2000 and the 3.1 Division of RER evolutionary stages of Liaon- significance of the implementation of the ‘Northeast ing Province Revitalization’ strategy in 2003, providing a point of Holling (2001) believes that an adaptive cycle model reference for a new revitalization strategy. There is no contains multiple time scales, and cycles occur within consensus on the choice of time scale for adaptive cycle both long-term and short-term processes. The time pe- models in the existing research literature. Statistical data riod chosen in this paper is relatively short, which were predominantly obtained from the China City Sta- means that it primarily deals with a short-term adaptive tistical Yearbook (National Bureau of Statistics, 2001– cycle. Fig. 4 shows the RER, vulnerability-resistance 2016) and the Liaoning Statistical Yearbook (Liaoning and adaptability-transformation of the 14 cities to dis- Bureau of Statistics, 2001–2016). tinguish the evolutionary stages of RER in Liaoning. 2.2.3 Research method The RER in Liaoning showed increasing volatility In order to scientifically reflect the RER of the 14 cities from 2000 to 2015, particularly between 2000 and in Liaoning, we adopted the entropy weight method, an 2004. From 2004 to 2009, the RER of Liaoning rapidly objective weighting approach, to work out the weights increased, slowed down during 2009–2012 and peaked of each indicator in the indicator system. in 2012. It declined between 2012 and 2015. The year (1) Standardizing indicator weights. To eliminate the 2012 saw an end to China’s two-decade-long double influence caused by the difference dimensions and or- digit GDP growth, with economic development slow- ders of magnitude, the original data is standardized (Tan ing down. Against this backdrop, Liaoning’s old indus- et al., 2017b). trial base showed a decline, and RER continued to de- (2) Calculating vulnerability-resistance (VR) and crease. adaptability-transformation (AT) (Tan et al., 2016). Examining the evolution of vulnerability-resistance

nn and adaptability-transformation, it can be seen that vul- –1 nerability-resistance and adaptability-transformation YXij=/ ij X ij E j = – ln n Y ij ln Y ij G j = ii=1 =1

mm 1=/=– Ejjjj W G G VR ii AT W jij  X  jj=1 =1 (1)

Xij′ is the normalized data of the jth indicator of the ith region, i = 1, 2, 3, …, n; j = 1, 2, 3, …, m; Yij is the standardized indicator ratios of the jth indicator of the ith region and Ej is the information entropy of the jth indicator, Gj and Wj are the information difference coef- ficient and weight of the jth indicator, VRi (ATi) is the Fig. 4 The evolution of RER in Liaoning Province, 2000–2015 346 Chinese Geographical Science 2020 Vol. 30 No. 2 followed a similar trend from 2000 to 2009, also show- tion-exploitation. Resources were reused through reor- ing increasing volatility. However, after 2009, the oppo- ganization activities, which promoted technological in- site trend appeared, reflecting the industrial restructur- novation and new development paths. As a result, RER ing and redevelopment that was taking place in Liaoning rapidly improved. Province around this time. This was related to the ‘4 The exploitation-conservation stage occurred from trillion’ investment plan adopted by the State to deal 2009 to 2012. In 2009, in response to the international with the international financial crisis in 2008. This financial crisis, the implementation of the ‘4 trillion’ measure rapidly improved Liaoning’s ability to adapt to economic stimulus plan and the ‘Liaoning Coastal Eco- the transformation and acted as an impetus for regional nomic Zone Development Plan’ further promoted the adjustment and transformational development. economic recovery and development of Liaoning Prov- It can also be seen that, during this observation pe- ince. Relying on the new path formed in the previous riod, the adaptability-transformation in Liaoning re- stage, Liaoning Province continued to develop with the mained lower than its vulnerability-resistance. Adapta- support of funds and policies, moving beyond the finan- bility-transformation represents the level of adaptation cial crisis, and RER peaked. However, with the sus- and innovation of Liaoning; that is, when the external tained development of the economy, RER may decline environment changes, the transformation and develop- due to the linkage between internal components and the ment of the regional economy can be realized through emergence of negative path dependence. adjustments and upgrades, or by creating new develop- The conservation-release stage spanned 2012 to 2015. ment paths. The relatively low level of adaptabil- With the national economy moving into a period of me- ity-transformation of Liaoning means that when shocks dium-to high-speed growth, the original economic de- occur, it cannot quickly adapt to changes in the envi- velopment model of Liaoning Province was unable to ronment. adapt to the current demand, and Liaoning Province en- The evolution of RER in Liaoning from 2000 to 2015 tered a conservation-release phase. Restricted by long- can be divided into four stages. The first stage is the re- term path dependence, the rigidity of the regional de- lease-reorganization stage spanning 2000 to 2004. In the velopment model is not easy to overcome, and RER 1990s, the rapid economic decline of the old industrial continued to decline in the face of slow burns, leading to bases in Northeast China, known as the ‘Northeast Phe- the emergence of regional economic recession. How- nomenon’, caused by long-term structural and institu- ever, with the economic downturn, the original links tional issues instigated a release process in Liaoning between system components are broken, and the re- Province, causing a decline of RER (Li et al., 2019). sources accumulated in the system will be re-released, However, with the central government’s support of old which will provide the possibility for new reorganiza- industrial bases in Northeast China and the official im- tion activities. plementation of the ‘Northeast Revitalization’ strategy in Therefore, Liaoning will once again enter the re- 2003, Liaoning Province received financial and policy lease-reorganization stage during which opportunities support to reverse the economic downturn. The resources and challenges will coexist, and new development paths released by the region were reused, the original path de- may emerge that drive economic revitalization and de- pendence broken, and the regional system entered a stage velopment. of release-reorganization, which provided the possibility for the recovery and development of the region. 3.2 RER evolutionary characteristics of Liaoning The reorganization-exploitation stage took place from Province 2004 to 2009. The implementation of the ‘Revitalization To comprehensively reflect the RER evolutionary char- Plan for the Old Industrial Base of Liaoning Province’ in acteristics of the 14 cities in Liaoning, we analyzed the 2005 indicated that revitalization of Liaoning Province vulnerability-resistance and adaptability-transformation had entered an accelerated stage, the structural adjust- of the cities in 2000–2015. ment and the reform of state-owned enterprises sped up, 3.2.1 Vulnerability-resistance evolutionary charac- and the economy rapidly recovered and grew. Liaoning teristics Province then stepped into the stage of reorganiza- Fig. 5 compared the results of the vulnerability-resistance LI Liangang et al. The Evolution of Regional Economic Resilience in the Old Industrial Bases in China: A Case Study… 347

Fig. 5 The vulnerability-resistance of 14 cities in Liaoning Province, 2000–2015 index of each city minus the average value for Liaoning. due to disturbance, urban economic development re- There exist significant differences among the cities in ceded. In most cities, the proportion of employees of vulnerability-resistance. The vulnerability-resistance level state-owned and collective-owned units exceeded 50%, of most cities in 2000–2015 remained lower than the leading to insufficient regional economic vitality. The average level for Liaoning. Only Shenyang, Dalian, and FTD of the cities was low, and the cities were less com- Yingkou were above the average level for Liaoning, petitive in the international market. The urban-rural in- with Dalian being the highest, indicating that these three come gap was large, with urban income more than twice cities have a comparatively high level of vulnerabil- rural income. The city infrastructure in Chaoyang and ity-resistance in the face of internal and external shocks. had been inferior for a long time, so when In contrast, the vulnerability-resistance of the five cities, shocks occurred, the regional economic system was un- including , , , Chaoyang, and Hu- able to adequately respond. The population density of ludao, was always lower than the average level for Shenyang, Dalian, and Yingkou ranked in the top three Liaoning. Four of them are resource-based cities whose in Liaoning, while the population density of other cities vulnerability-resistance to disturbance was weak. The was low, which indirectly reflects the lack of labor sup- other cities’ vulnerability-resistance was also relatively ply. With the outflow of population in Northeast China low. growing in recent years (Zhao and Liu, 2018), the prob- The proportion of secondary industry of those five lem of talent shortage has become prominent, which has cities was very high for a long time. In 2012, the pro- restricted the resistance of these areas to shocks. portion of secondary industry ranged between 45% and In general, most cities in Liaoning were vulnerable to 63%. Fuxin, , and Chaoyang had a high degree of disturbance. Therefore, urban economic development specialization, and they respectively ranked second, was susceptible to internal and external shocks, leading third, and fourth in the province in 2015. The city that to the decline of the regional economy. Meanwhile, the ranked first was Panjin, whose resistance was also lower resistance of the cities to disturbances significantly dif- than the average level for a long time. At the same time, fered with a clear polarization. it can be found that the vulnerability of Panjin in the 3.2.2 Adaptability-transformation evolutionary charac- past few years was higher than the average level for teristics Liaoning Province, which is mainly due to the city’s low Fig. 6 compared the results of the adaptability- degree of specialization at that time. When the tradi- transformation index of each city minus the average tional industrial sector of Liaoning fell into a downturn value for Liaoning. The adaptability-transformation of 348 Chinese Geographical Science 2020 Vol. 30 No. 2

Fig. 6 The adaptability-transformation of 14 cities in Liaoning Province, 2000–2015

Fushun, Benxi, Panjin, Chaoyang, and Huludao during average level for Liaoning. The adaptability-transformation 2000–2015 remained lower than the average level for of Shenyang, Dalian, and Dandong was higher than the Liaoning. Four of them are resource-based cities, and provincial average during the observation period, indi- their adaptability-transformation was low. After shocks cating that, compared with other cities, these three cities occurred, the adaptability and recovery of the regional can rapidly adapt to the new environment and recover economic system of these cities were lower. from shocks. However, the adaptability-transformation The financial environment of Fushun, Benxi, and Pan- ability of Shenyang and Dalian was significantly higher jin was at the lowest level in the province for a long time, than Dandong. Shenyang and Dalian were better able to which was not favorable for the financing of enterprises. adapt to long-term slow burns, successfully transform in The number of students in colleges and universities in the face of disturbances, and break the limitations of their Panjin, Chaoyang, and Huludao was also at the lowest original paths, achieving a development path break- point, which means that the human capital in these cities through. Compared with the core cities, Dandong’s was relatively low. The proportion of science and tech- adaptability-transformation ability was lower. During the nology expenditure to GDP remained low for a long time slow burns, Dandong was more likely to adjust and re- at less than 0.2% for most cities. Investment in innovation sume its original development pathway. activities was also weak, which restricted the innovation As the core cities of Liaoning Province, Shenyang and and transformation of these cities. In addition, the propor- Dalian had a large concentration of resources, were able to tion of FDI and fixed asset investment showed a down- rapidly adjust their industrial structures, and the proportion ward trend, which limited economic transformation and of tertiary industry continued to rise and remained higher development. The increase in the proportion of tertiary than other cities. The investment of funds in science and industry in recent years is mainly attributable to the de- technology in the three cities was relatively high, but the cline in the secondary industry. The path dependence of proportion of investment in Shenyang and Dalian was the secondary industry development in Liaoning was signifi- highest in the Province, followed by Dandong. The number cant, and the development of the tertiary industry was of scientific and technical personnel in the three cities was neglected. Meanwhile, the traditional industries were higher, which improved the cities’ innovation ability. The more susceptible to shocks, which restricted the trans- number of students in colleges and universities in Shen- formation and development of the regional economy. The yang and Dalian was much higher than the other cities. adaptability-transformation of , Yingkou, Fuxin, Thus, these cities’ potential human capital was strong, pro- , and Tieling in most years was lower than the viding talent for regional transformation. LI Liangang et al. The Evolution of Regional Economic Resilience in the Old Industrial Bases in China: A Case Study… 349

Overall, the cities in Liaoning have a relatively weak vincial average in most years because Dandong main- adaptability-transformation ability following shocks. tained a strong adaptability-transformation capacity and They struggle to create a new development path, result- Yingkou had a strong vulnerability-resistance capacity. ing in slow transformation and recovery of the urban In general, the RER within Liaoning was highly po- economy. larized. The RER of Shenyang and Dalian was signifi- 3.2.3 RER evolutionary characteristics cantly higher than the other cities, followed by Dandong Fig. 7 compared the results on regional economic resil- and Yingkou, and the rest of the cities had low RER. ience of each city minus the average value for Liaoning. The RER of most cities was lower than the average From 2000 to 2015, only the RER of Shenyang and Da- value for Liaoning Province. Most cities could not posi- lian was higher than the average for Liaoning and was tively respond to slow burns; thereby the regional eco- significantly different from other cities. When encoun- nomic system tended to fall into recession. tering a disturbance, the two cities’ ability to resist shocks was strong and their economies were less af- 4 Conclusions and Suggestions fected by shocks. At the same time, the regional econ- omy could be restored by appropriately adjusting its The concept of RER is considered to be important in structure and function. explaining regional differences in response to economic The RER of Fushun, Benxi, Fuxin, Liaoyang, Chaoy- recession, but most of the research on RER focuses on ang, and Huludao remained lower than the average level direct external shocks, paying more attention to different for the Province during the entire study period. The resis- responses of regions when facing a financial crisis, and tance of these cities to shocks was weak, which means ignoring regional economic resilience to long-term slow that they tended to step into recession. This is mainly burns. The paper addresses this limitation. In this paper, because the vulnerability-resistance and adaptability- we measured the RER of Liaoning’s old industrial base transformation capacities of the cities were weak in the by constructing a RER analysis framework and an index face of disturbances. Therefore, the regional economic system in response to long-term slow burns from 2000 system was highly vulnerable to disturbance. As a result, to 2015. Then, we distinguished the evolutionary stages their RER was lower than the average level for the prov- of RER. There are four main findings: first, the evolu- ince for a long time. The RER levels of the four cities tion of RER in Liaoning can be divided into four stages: including Anshan, , Panjin and Tieling were lower a release-reorganization period from 2000 to 2004, a than the provincial average in most years. However, the reorganization-exploitation period from 2004 to 2009, RER of Dandong and Yingkou was higher than the pro- an exploitation-conservation period from 2009 to 2012,

Fig. 7 The RER of 14 cities in Liaoning Province, 2000–2015 350 Chinese Geographical Science 2020 Vol. 30 No. 2

and a conservation-release period from 2012 to 2015. China but is also important to countries experiencing an Liaoning will once again enter a release-reorganization economic recession. However, due to limitations in the period in the next stage. Second, the RER of most cities availability and comparability of data, we only studied was lower than the average for Liaoning Province, which the period spanning 2000–2015 in this paper. In future was mainly because the adaptability-transformation and research, we will try to collect data and build a more the vulnerability-resistance of these cities were weak. comprehensive scientific indicator system to reflect the Third, the RER of the 14 cities in Liaoning significantly characteristics of RER in response to slow burns to pro- differed. The first level is Shenyang and Dalian, which vide better guidance on regional economic development. had the highest RER. 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