The Costs and Benefits of Urban Expansion: Evidence from Mexico, 1990–2010 Working Paper WP19JM1
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The Costs and Benefits of Urban Expansion: Evidence from Mexico, 1990–2010 Working Paper WP19JM1 Jorge Montejano Centro de Investigación en Geografia y Geomática Paavo Monkkonen UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs Erick Guerra University of Pennsylvania Camilo Caudillo Centro de Investigación en Geografia y Geomática March 2019 The findings and conclusions of this Working Paper reflect the views of the author(s) and have not been subject to a detailed review by the staff of the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. Contact the Lincoln Institute with questions or requests for permission to reprint this paper. [email protected] © 2019 Lincoln Institute of Land Policy Abstract Urbanization is generally linked to economic growth, and agglomeration economies mean that people in larger cities are more productive. However, urban expansion is also associated with congestion, localized environmental damage, and in many countries, deficiencies in infrastructure and housing conditions. Urban policies worldwide are increasingly based on an apparent international consensus that urban compactness is a desirable policy goal, for reasons of environmental sustainability and economic productivity. However, there is almost no evidence that compact cities are more productive outside of high-income countries, with a productive service sector. Given that land-intensive manufacturing activities is the economic base of many cities in Latin America, policies promoting compactness may reduce economic productivity by constraining expansion. The tensions between environmental, social and economic goals in the urban policy of countries with rapidly expanding cities has not been sufficiently studied. Mexico is an ideal case study because of the rapid rate at which cities have been growing in recent decades. In this report, we examine impacts—both positive and negative—of the way in which cities have been growing in Mexico. First, we test the relationship between urban form and economic productivity, testing the hypothesis that growing in a compact manner promotes productivity. We find that in Mexico, urban sprawl is associated with higher levels of economic productivity. This finding is counterintuitive and raises questions about the conventional wisdom related to cities and economic growth. We then examine two of the important ‘costs’ of urban expansion: transportation and socio-economic segregation. Findings in these cases confirm expectations that more sprawling cities have higher transportation costs and more socio- economic segregation. We conclude by arguing that policy makers must at least acknowledge the tradeoffs between productivity, transportation costs, and socio-spatial structure. About the Authors Dr. Jorge Montejano is a full time Professor at Centro de Investigación en Geografía y Geomática “Ing. Jorge L. Tamayo” A.C. (CentroGeo) in Mexico City, where he teaches courses in urban studies. He has published articles on land-use travel behavior, urban structure, urban growth, social hosing and the impact of technology on the built environment. He is member of the National Research System in México (SNI); member of the Mexican Academy of Urbanists (AMU), and member of the Network of Studies in Urban Form (REFU). His work has been published in journals such as Urban Studies, Urbs, and Economía, Sociedad y Territorio, among others. He studied Architecture at the Universidad Iberoamericana in Mexico City, and completed a PhD in Urbanism at the Universitat Politécnica de Catalunya, in Barcelona, Spain. Contact: [email protected] Paavo Monkkonen, PhD., is Associate Professor of Urban Planning at the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs. He studies the way housing policies shape urban development and segregation in cities around the world. More specifically, he researches housing finance policy, land use regulations, socioeconomic segregation, land titling programs, household formation, and property taxation. His work has been published in academic journals such as the Journal of the American Planning Association, the International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, the Journal of Urban Economics, Regional Science and Urban Economics, Urban Studies, and the Journal of Peasant Studies. Dr. Monkkonen completed a Master of Public Policy at the School of Public Affairs at the University of California, Los Angeles, and a PhD in City and Regional Planning at the University of California, Berkeley. He was previously Assistant Professor of Urban Planning at the University of Hong Kong. Contact: [email protected] Erick Guerra, Ph.D., is Assistant Professor in City and Regional Planning at University of Pennsylvania, where he teaches courses in transportation planning and quantitative planning methods. He has published recent articles on suburban transit investments in Mexico City, self- reported happiness and travel behavior, the relationship between land use and car-ownership and driving rates, and the role of land use in promoting high ridership and cost-effective transit service. His current work focuses on land use and transportation in Mexico City and Indonesia, public transport policy, land use and traffic safety, and contemporary planning for self-driving vehicles. As a practicing researcher and consultant, Erick has worked on a diverse range of planning-related topics, including housing investment and financial remittances in Sub-Saharan Africa; informal transportation in medium-sized Indonesian cities; and cross-border planning on the Island of Ireland. Erick holds a Ph.D. in City and Regional Planning from the University of California Berkeley, a Master’s in Urban Planning from Harvard University, and a BA in Fine Arts and French from the University of Pennsylvania. Contact: [email protected] Mtro. Camilo Caudillo has a Master’s degree in Geomatics from the Centro de Investigación en Geografía y Geomática “Ing. Jorge L. Tamayo”, A.C. (CentroGeo) and a Master in Population Studies at the Latin-American Social Sciences Faculty (FLACSO-Mexico). Currently, he is Associate Professor and a doctoral student in Geomatics at CentroGeo, where he teaches spatial analysis and spatial statistics. His research interests are urban geography, residential segregation, spatial econometrics, detection of spatial and spatiotemporal patterns, and public safety. He has coauthored articles and book chapters related to geospatial technologies in prestigious publishers and journals like Springer and Urban Studies. Contact: [email protected] Contents I. Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1 II. Urban Form and Economic Productivity in Mexico ............................................................ 3 Theory and Evidence on the Relationship Between Urban Productivity and Urban Form 4 The Economic and Urban Context of Mexico .................................................................... 8 Measuring Urban Form / Urban Structure ........................................................................ 17 Modelling Approach ......................................................................................................... 26 Analysis............................................................................................................................. 27 Summary and Discussion .................................................................................................. 35 III. Urban Form and Travel Outcomes in Mexico’s 100 Largest Cities ................................ 36 Urban Form and Transportation Outcomes: A Brief Overview ....................................... 37 Data and Background ........................................................................................................ 37 Commuting: Mode and Times .......................................................................................... 38 Traffic Fatalities ................................................................................................................ 41 Vehicle Ownership............................................................................................................ 42 Research Approach ........................................................................................................... 43 Findings............................................................................................................................. 44 Summary and Discussion .................................................................................................. 52 IV. Urban Expansion and Segregation by Income and Education in Mexico: 1990–2010 .. 55 Segregation and Urbanization in Mexico ......................................................................... 56 Measuring Urban Growth, Urban Form and Socioeconomic Segregation ....................... 57 Changes in Segregation and Urban Form ......................................................................... 59 Analysis of the Relationship Between Urban Growth, Urban Form, and Segregation .... 60 Summary and Discussion .................................................................................................. 63 V. Conclusions and Future Research ........................................................................................ 64 References .................................................................................................................................... 67 Appendix A: Location Quotient of Manufacturing Jobs in 2000 and 2010 .........................