Will Spain Break Up? and the Clash of National Identities

Luis Moreno Research Professor Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)

Lafayette College, 22 March 2018

Autonomous community Population (2016) GDP per capita (€)

Andalusia 8,409,657 17,651

Aragon 1,317,076 26,328 Asturias 1,034,449 20,910 Balearic Islands 1,150,839 24,870 Basque Country 2,167,707 31,805 Canary Islands 2,154,905 19,867 Cantabria 581,477 21,553 Castile and León 2,435,797 22,649 Castile-La Mancha 2,040,379 18,591 Catalonia 7,441,176 28,590 (City) 85,107 19,446 Extremadura 1,077,715 16,369 Galicia 2,710,607 21,358 312,647 25,692 Madrid 6,475,872 32,723 (City) 85,116 17,686 Murcia 1,472,949 19,411 Navarre 640,502 29,807 Valencia 4,934,993 21,296 Spain 46,528,970 24,200 (30,000 USD)

Source: Spanish National Institute of Statistics (INE) BACKGROUND AND PREMISES (1)

• Spain; a union-state achieved by means of a dynastic marriage (1469).

• Centrifugal tendencies and lack of territorial accommodation have found expression in a number of internal conflicts.

• It only developed centralizing policies of nation-building in contemporary times (XIX Century). BACKGROUND AND PREMISES (2) • Spanish Civil War (1936-39), prelude to WWII. General Franco’s dictatorship (1939- 75) aimed at creating a uniform and artificial Spain. Suppression of internal languages and cultures.

• 1978 democratic Constitution (wide cross- party agreement between Conservatives, Centrists, Socialists, Communists and regional Nationalists). BACKGROUND AND PREMISES (3) • 1978 Constitution approved in referendum by 88% Catalans (turnout 67% in Catalonia).

• Widespread decentralization of powers and responsibilities and constitutional recognition of regional self-rule and cultural diversity (e.g. Languages other than Castillian also co-official in the territories where they are spoken.

• Spain, a federal-like country (a federation in disguise) BACKGROUND AND PREMISES (4)

DECENTRALIZATION PROCESS (1981-2002) PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AND LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT

1981 1984 1987 1990 1996 1999 2002 CENTRAL 87.3 75.6 72.6 66.2 58.9 56.2 48.7 CC.AA. 3.0 12.2 14.6 20.5 26.9 28.2 35.5 LOCAL 9.7 12.1 12.8 13.3 14.2 15.6 15.8

Notes:

(a) During 1999-2002, strong regional increases corresponded to the decentralization of education and health powers to all 17 Comunidades Autónomas.

(b) Spending on social insurance pensions has not been taken into account as it would introduced a bias were it to be included as a central government matter.

BACKGROUND AND PREMISES (5)

• Historical nationalities’ (Basque Country, Catalonia and Galicia) with their own language (co-official with Spanish), traditional civil law systems, or special economic and fiscal arrangements (also Canary Islands).

• Secessionist tendencies in Catalonia (non- violent) and Basque Country (ETA). BACKGROUND AND PREMISES (6) • No significant differences between segments of the population in terms of primordial cleavages such as religion or race.

• Interpretations and re-interpretations of historical events have shaped collective identities, ethnocultural communities, and national groups that are concentrated in the 17 regional autonomous communities. Catalonia’s demands for more devolved powers (1)

• The reform of Catalonia’s constitutional law (Statute of Autonomy, 2006) initiated the present political conflict.

• On June 27, 2010, and after more than four years of deliberations, the Spanish Constitutional Court declared unconstitutional several articles of the new Statute, which had been approved in referendum in Catalonia, other than the self- definition of Catalonia as a nation. Catalonia’s demands for further decentralization (2) • Big demonstration on the streets of (up to 1.5 million people) on the Diada (National Day of Catalonia, 11th September 2012).

• Refusal from the Spanish central government to negotiate a new system to allow more financial powers and fiscal revenues for Catalan home rule, along the lines of the Basque Country.

• Nationalist parties in Catalonia insisted that Catalonia would be better off on its own, and that “Spain rob us”.

Catalonia and the ‘Moreno question’: “In which of these five categories do you include yourself?”

2013 (% 2016 (% 1985 (%) 2013 (%) CIS) CEO CIS)

I consider myself only Catalan 9 31 21 22 I consider myself more Catalan than Spanish 24 27 21 21 I consider myself as much Spanish as Catalan 47 33 40 40 I consider myself more Spanish than Catalan 2 7 5 6 I consider myself only Spanish 12 4 9 6 Don’t knows / No answer 1 3 4 5

CEO: Catalan Centre of Opinion Studies. CIS: Spanish Centre for Sociological Research.

Note: Figures have been rounded to nearest full percentage. Catalonia’s path to secession (1)

• The Generalitat organized a public consultation on 9 November 2014 (80 % voted for secession. Turnout was 37 % of registered voters).

• Catalan nationalists supported the celebration of ‘plesbicite’ regional elections on 27 September 2015. The idea was for the Catalan Government (Generalitat) to declare independence if a majority of the Catalan parliamentarians voted to do so. Catalonia’s path to secession (2)

• 72/135 parliamentarians put in motion the legislative ‘procès’ for the secession of Catalonia from the Kingdom of Spain and the achievement of the Republic of Catalonia.

• Illegal referendum organized by the Generalitat on 1 October 2017 (90 % voted for secession. Turnout, 42%). Secessionist parliamentarians approved the DUI (Declaration of Unilateral Independence).

• Spanish Constitutional court declared both referendum and DUI as unconstitutional. Catalonia’s path to secession (3)

• New elections held on 21 December 2017 (70/135 parliamentarians for secession) (82% turnout)

• Mismatch between a parliamentary majority in favour of secession, but representing a minority of popular votes (47.5%).

• Catalan electoral system provides a premium of seats to the less populated provincial constituencies of Tarragona (18 seats) Girona (17) and Lleida (15), as compared to the urbanised Barcelona province (85). Catalonia’s path to secession (4)

• King Philip VI stated that referendum's organizers had jeopardized national stability: “They have systematically undermined the rules approved legally and legitimately, showing an unacceptable disloyalty towards the powers of the state”.

• Spanish institutions (Senate) approved the application of art. 155 of Constitution [If a self- governed region “doesn't comply with the obligations of the Constitution or other laws it imposes”, the central government can ask the Senate permission to intervene]. International reactions

• EU authorities opposed to the declaration of Catalan independence.

• France, Germany, Italy, UK and other major Western countries against secession.

• US. Governmental statement: “Catalonia is an integral part of Spain, and the United States supports the Spanish government’s constitutional measures to keep Spain strong and unified.” Questions and answers (1)

• Any fugitive President of the Generalitat ruling from Brussels? NOT ANYMORE

• Would the newly elected Generalitat government carry on with previous secessionist claims instead of accommodating Catalan home rule within Spain? YES

• Reconciliation between the internal Catalonias (the case of Tabarnia)? NOPE Tabarnia Questions and answers (2)

• Would an all-party Spanish negotiation reach a compromise to reform the 1978 Spanish Constitution? UNLIKELY

• A political stalemate or zugwang? INDEED

• The in(ter)dependence of Catalonia within a federal Spain: mission (im) possible? YES, WITH CURRENT POLITICAL LEADERSHIP (BOTH IN CATALONIA AND SPAIN)

• Independent Catalonia in the foreseeable future? NO THANK YOU [email protected]